Michigan basin regional ground water flow discharge to three Great Lakes

Ground water discharge to the Great Lakes around the Lower Peninsula of Michigan is primarily from recharge in riparian basins and proximal upland areas that are especially important to the northern half of the Lake Michigan shoreline. A steady-state finite-difference model was developed to simulate ground water flow in four regional aquifers in Michigan's Lower Peninsula: the Glaciofluvial, Saginaw, Parma-Bayport, and Marshall aquifers interlayered with the Till/"red beds," Saginaw, and Michigan confining units, respectively. The model domain was laterally bound by a continuous specified-head boundary, formed from lakes Michigan, Huron, St. Clair, and Erie, with the St. Clair and Detroit River connecting channels. The model was developed to quantify regional ground water flow in the aquifer systems using independently determined recharge estimates. According to the flow model, local stream stages and discharges account for 95% of the overall model water budget; only 50% enters the lakes directly from the ground water system. Direct ground water discharge to the Great Lakes' shorelines was calculated at 36 m3/sec, accounting for 5% of the overall model water budget. Lowland areas contribute far less ground water discharge to the Great Lakes than upland areas. The model indicates that Saginaw Bay receives only approximately 1.13 m3/sec ground water; the southern half of the Lake Michigan shoreline receives only approximately 2.83 m3/sec. In contrast, the northern half of the Lake Michigan shoreline receives more than 17 m3/sec from upland areas.     

Vulnerability of water resources under a changing climate and human activity in the lower Great Lakes region

Globally, the number of people experiencing water stress is expected to increase by millions by the end of the century. The Great Lakes region, representing 20% of the world's surface freshwater, is not immune to stresses on water supply due to uncertainties on the impacts of climate and land use change. It is imperative for researchers and policy makers to assess the changing state of water resources, even if the region is water rich. This research developed the integrated surface water-groundwater GSFLOW model and investigated the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on water resources in the lower Great Lakes region of Western New York. To capture a range of scenarios, two climate emission pathways and three land development projections were used, specifically RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5, increased urbanization by 50%, decreased urbanization by 50%, and current land cover, respectively. Model outputs of surface water and groundwater discharge into the Great Lakes and groundwater storage for mid- and late century were compared to historical to determine the direction and amplitude of changes. Both surface water and groundwater systems show no statistically significant changes under RCP 4.5 but substantial and worrisome losses with RCP 8.5 by mid-century and end of century. Under RCP 8.5, streamflow decreased by 22% for mid-century and 42% for late century. Adjusting impervious surfaces revealed complex land use effects, resulting in spatially varying groundwater head fluctuations. For instance, increasing impervious surfaces lowered groundwater levels from 0.5 to 3.8 m under Buffalo, the largest city in the model domain, due to reduced recharge in surrounding suburban areas. Ultimately, results of this study highlight the necessity of integrated modelling in assessing temporal changes to water resources. This research has implications for other water-rich areas, which may not be immune to effects of climate change and human activities.     

Spatio‐temporal variability of Great Lakes basin snow cover ablation events

In the Great Lakes basin of North America, annual run‐off is dominated by snowmelt. This snowmelt‐induced run‐off plays an important role within the hydrologic cycle of the basin, influencing soil moisture availability and driving the seasonal cycle of spring and summer lake levels. Despite this, relatively little is understood about the patterns and trends of snow ablation event frequency and magnitude within the Great Lakes basin. This study uses a gridded dataset of Canadian and United States surface snow depth observations to develop a regional climatology of snow ablation events from 1960 to 2009. An ablation event is defined as an interdiurnal snow depth decrease within an individual grid cell. A clear seasonal cycle in ablation event frequency exists within the basin and peak ablation event probability is latitudinally dependent. Most of the basin experiences peak ablation frequency in March, while the northern and southern regions of the basin experience respective peaks in April and February. An investigation into the interannual frequency of ablation events reveals ablation events significantly decrease within the northeastern and northwestern Lake Superior drainage basins and significantly increase within the eastern Lake Huron and Georgian Bay drainage basins. In the eastern Lake Huron and Georgian Bay drainage basins, larger ablation events are occurring more frequently, and a larger impact to the hydrology can be expected. Trends in ablation events are attributed primarily to changes in snowfall and snow depth across the region.     

Current changes in water resources in Lena River basin

The effect of climate on the present-day formation conditions of the regimes of annual and base runoff in Eastern Siberia rivers and changes in those regimes are studied. The significant climate warming in Eastern Siberia in recent decades is shown to be accompanied by not only an increase in air temperature and some increase in precipitation, but also by a considerable changes in the annual and seasonal values of river and groundwater runoff. Hydrometeorological data are used to analyze variations in the mean annual and mean base runoff over the entire observation period divided into subperiods of 1940–1969 and 1970–2005. Plots, diagrams, and tables are constructed for the most representative gauges. The zoning of the territory by the runoff formation conditions was carried out and new estimates were derived for total water resources and natural groundwater resources for 1970–2005 with the construction of maps in ArcMap program.     

Modeling the ice-attenuated waves in the Great Lakes

Ocean Dynamics - A partly coupled wave-ice model with the ability to resolve ice-induced attenuation on waves was developed using the Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) framework and...     

Heat flow and ground water flow in the Great Plains of the United States

Regional groundwater flow in deep aquifers adds advective components to the surface heat flow over extensive areas within the Great Plains province. The regional groundwater flow is driven by topographically controlled piezometric surfaces for confined aquifers that recharge either at high elevations on the western edge of the province or from subcrop contacts. The aquifers discharge at lower elevations to the east. The assymetrical geometry for the Denver and Kennedy Basins is such that the surface areas of aquifer recharge are small compared to the areas of discharge. Consequently, positive advective heat flow occurs over most of the province. The advective component of heat flow in the Denver Basin is on the order of 15 mW m⁻² along a zone about 50 km wide that parallels the structure contours of the Dakota aquifer on the eastern margin of the Basin. The advective component of heat flow in the Kennedy Basin is on the order of 20 mW m⁻² and occurs over an extensive area that coincides with the discharge areas of the Madison (Mississippian) and Dakota (Cretaceous) aquifers. Groundwater flow in Paleozoic and Mesozoic aquifers in the Williston Basin causes thermal anomalies that are seen in geothermal gradient data and in oil well temperature data. The pervasive nature of advective heat flow components in the Great Plains tends to mask the heat flow structure of the crust, and only heat flow data from holes drilled into the crystalline basement can be used for tectonic heat flow studies.     

An assessment of the surface water resources of the Juba-Shabelle basin in southern Somalia

Abstract

The water resources of the Juba and Shabelle rivers in southern Somalia are important for irrigation and food production, but are influenced by seasonal floods. Prior to the outbreak of civil war in 1991, the Somali Ministry of Agriculture successfully operated a hydrometric network covering the Juba and the Shabelle, data from which provided input to a flow forecasting model. The war resulted in the neglect and abandonment of monitoring stations and an enforced cessation of data collection and management. In 2001 and 2002, part of the pre-war hydrometric network was reinstated and water levels were again recorded at some stations. This paper examines the implications of the 11-year hiatus in data collection, and the now much reduced monitoring network, for assessing and managing the surface water resources. The problems faced have relevance to other basins, within Africa and elsewhere, where there has been a similar decline in data collection.

Citation Houghton-Carr, H. A., Print, C. R., Fry, M. J., Gadain, H. & Muchiri, P. (2011) An assessment of the surface water resources of the Juba-Shabelle basin in southern Somalia. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(5), 759–774.     

Heat flow and ground water movement in the Bohemian cretaceous basin (Czechoslovakia)

Sub-surface temperature fields may be considerably affected by active ground water systems, thereby seriously hampering the interpretation of heat flow data. Quantitative evaluation of the convective component of heat transfer is thus very important in cases such as large sedimentary basins with vast underground water circulation. We propose in this study a simple model of horizontal aquifer. This model was used to examine the effect of the lateral convection on the surface heat flow near the recharge zone of basinal margins. The perturbation of the heat flow field above the aquifer was calculated for various aquifer geometry and various flow velocities and the regional scale dependence of the perturbation on the hydraulic properties of the aquifer was demonstrated. The model was applied to the Bohemian Cretaceous Basin and it was shown that within a few kilometres from the recharge zones the observed surface heat flow may be underestimated by up to several tens of percent. The procedure was tested in two locations in this area, in an attempt to make hydrogeological corrections to the measured heat flow values in several boreholes.     

Coherence between atmospheric teleconnections,Great Lakes water levels,and regional climate

We investigated the frequency domain relationships between four atmospheric teleconnections (Trans-Niño Index TNI, Pacific Decadal Oscillation PDO, Northern Annular Mode/Arctic Oscillation Index NAM/AO, and Pacific/North American PNA pattern) and water levels in the Great Lakes from 1948 to 2002 by quantifying the coherence between these time series. The levels in all Great Lakes are significantly correlated with the TNI in the frequency range (3–7)⁻¹ cycles year⁻¹, and with the PDO in interdecadal frequencies. The levels in Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Erie are significantly correlated with the PNA pattern in interdecadal frequencies, and the levels in all Great Lakes are significantly correlated with the NAM/AO in interannual frequencies.     

Isotopes and sustainability of ground water resources, North China Plain

Ground water in deep confined aquifers is one of the major water resources for agricultural, industrial, and domestic uses in the North China Plain. Detailed information on ground water age and recharge is vital for the proper management of these water resources, and to this end, we used carbon 14 of dissolved inorganic carbon and tritium in water to measure the age and determine the recharge areas of ground water in the North China Plain. These isotopic data suggest that most ground water in the piedmont part of the North China Plain is <40 years old and is recharged locally. In contrast, ground water in the central and littoral portions of the North China Plain is 10,000 to 25,000 years old. The delta18O (deltaD) values of this ground water are 1.7 per thousand (11 per thousand) less than that in the piedmont plain ground water and possibly reflect water recharged during a cooler climate during the last glaciation. The temperature of this recharge, based on delta18O values, ranges from 3.7 degrees C to 8.4 degrees C, compared to 12 degrees C to 13 degrees C of modern recharge water. The isotopic data set combined indicates that ground water in the central and littoral part of the North China Plain is being mined under non-steady state conditions.     

Information support for studying water resources of Lake Ladoga and its basin

A regional geographic information system for water resources of Lake Ladoga basin was developed as an information support for works aimed to study and practically use the water resources of Lake Ladoga and its basin. The system incorporates databases with the results of hydrochemical, hydrological, and meteorological measurements; information on water use; and an atlas of digital maps. The developed inquiry and communication system is based on web-interfaces, provides for remote access to databases, and enables interactive data exchange.     

Assessment of future Syrian water resources supply and demand by the WEAP model

Abstract

Water availability is one of the most important factors for economic development in the Middle East. The Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was used to assess present and future water demand and supply in Syria till 2050. Nonconventional water resources, climate change, development, industrial growth, regional cooperation, and implementation of new water saving techniques/devices were considered important factors to include in the analysis using the WEAP model. Six scenarios were evaluated depending on the actual situation, climate change, best available technology, advanced technology, regional cooperation, and regional conflict. The results display a vital need for new water resources to balance the unmet water demands. Climate change will have a major effect on Syrian water resources; possible regional conflict will also to a major extent affect water balance. However, regional cooperation and using the best available technology can help in minimizing the gap between supply and demand.

EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Many-year level variations in the Great Lakes of Eurasia and North America

Regularities in the secular variations of water level in the Great Lakes of Eurasia and North America under natural climate and anthropogenic impacts are studied.     

Assessment of surface water resources and evapotranspiration in the Haihe River basin of China using SWAT model

Quantitative assessment of surface water resources (SWRs) and evapotranspiration (ET) is essential and significant for reasonably planning and managing water resources in the Haihe River basin which is facing severe water shortage. In this study, a distributed hydrological model of the Haihe River basin was constructed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, well considering the reservoirs and agricultural management practices for reasonable simulation. The crop parameters were independently calibrated with the observed crop data at six experimental stations. Then, sensitivity ranks of hydrological parameters were analysed, which suggested the important parameters used for calibration. The model was successfully calibrated using the monthly observed data of discharge in around 1970–1991 and actual ET (ET_a) in 2002–2004 for the mountainous area and Haihe plain, respectively. Meanwhile, good agreements between the simulated and statistical crop yields in 1985–2005 further verified the model's appropriateness. Finally, the calibrated model was used to assess SWRs and ET_a in time and space during 1961–2005. Results showed that the average annual natural SWRs and the ET_a were about 17.5 billion cubic metre and 542 mm, respectively, both with a slight downward trend. The spatial distributions of both SWRs and ET_a were significantly impacted by variations of precipitation and land use. Moreover, the reservoir in operation was the main factor for the noticeable decline of actual SWRs. In the Haihe plain, the ET_a with irrigation was increased by 46% compared with that under rainfed conditions. In addition, this study identified the regions with potential to improve the irrigation effects on water use. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Environmental water quantity projections under market-driven and sustainability-driven future scenarios in the Narew basin,Poland

Abstract

The aim of this article is to assess the impact of four scenarios combining possible changes in climate, atmospheric carbon dioxide, land use and water use by 2050, on the specific set of ecologically relevant flow regime indicators that define environmental flow requirements in a semi-natural river basin in Poland. This aim is presented through a modelling case study using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Indicators show both positive and negative responses to future changes. Warm projections from the IPSL-CM4 global climate model combined with sustainable land- and water-use projections (SuE) produce the most negative changes, while warm and wet projections from the MIROC3.2 model combined with market-driven projections (EcF) gave the most positive changes. Climate change overshadows land- and water-use change in terms of the magnitude of projected flow alterations. The future of environmental water quantity is brighter under the market-driven rather than the sustainability-driven scenario, which shows that sustainability for terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. more forests and grasslands) can be at variance with sustainability for riverine and riparian ecosystems (requiring sufficient amount and proper timing of river flows).

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Piniewski, M., Okruszko, T., and Acreman, M.C., 2014. Environmental water quantity projections under market-driven and sustainability-driven future scenarios in the Narew basin, Poland. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3–4), 916–934.