The summer monsoon of 1988

Summary Time averaged, monthly mean fields of a number of climate parameters such as sea surface temperature anomalies, outgoing longwave radiation anomalies, 200 mb velocity potential field, streamfunction anomaly at the lower and the upper troposphere and percentage rainfall amounts are presented, for the summer of 1988 over the regions of Asian summer monsoon. Above normal rainfall occurred over most of the Indian subcontinent, southeast Asia and eastern China during 1988. In comparison, 1987 was a drought year. This paper presents a comparison of some of the salient aforementioned parameters. The evolution of the planetary scale divergent motions and the streamfunction anomaly exhibit prominent differences during the life cycle of the monsoon in these two years. The velocity potential field exhibits a pronounced planetary scale geometry with the divergent outflows emanating from the monsoon region during 1988. The descending branches of these time averaged circulations are found over the Atlantic ocean to the west and over the eastern Pacific and North America to the east. The immense size of this circulation is indicative of an above normal monsoon activity. During 1987, the outflow center was located much further to the southeast over the western Pacific ocean. The longitudinal extent of the monsoonal divergent circulations were much smaller in 1987.The positive sea surface temperature anomaly of the El Nino year 1987 is seen to move westwards to the western Pacific in 1988, a warm anomaly also appears over the eastern equatorial Indian ocean and the Bay of Bengal at this time. The latter contributes to the supply of moisutre during the active monsoon season of 1988. The outgoing long wave radiation anomalies evolve with a westward propagation of strong positive anomalies from the central Pacific ocean consistent with the evolution of divergent circulation. The streamfunction anomalies basically show westerly zonal wind anomalies being replaced by easterly anomalies during 1988 over the upper troposphere of the monsoon region.The lower tropospheric streamfunction anomaly during the drought year 1987 showed a pronounced counter monsoon circulation. That feature was absent in 1988.With 11 Figures     

Upper- and Lower-tropospheric Circulation Anomalies Associated with Interannual Variation of Pakistan Rainfall during Summer

This study investigated the large-scale circulation anomalies, in both the upper and lower troposphere, associated with the interannual variation of rainfall in Pakistan during summer, using the station observation data in this country and circulation data of the NCEP?NCAR reanalysis from 1981 to 2017. Results showed that the upper- and lower-tropospheric circulation anomalies associated with monthly rainfall variability exhibit similar features from June to August, so analyses were performed on June?August circulation and Pakistan rainfall data. The analyzed results indicated that summer rainfall in Pakistan is enhanced when there is an anticyclonic anomaly to the northwest of Pakistan in the upper troposphere and easterly anomalies along the southern foothills of the Himalayas in the lower troposphere, and vice versa. These upper- and lower-tropospheric circulation anomalies were found to be related, but show unique features. The upper-tropospheric anticyclonic anomaly is closely related to the Silk Road Pattern along the Asian westerly jet, while the lower-tropospheric easterly anomalies are related to the cyclonic anomaly to the south of Pakistan, i.e., intensified South Asian monsoon trough. The results presented here suggest that the interannual variability of summer rainfall in Pakistan is a combined result of upper- and lower-tropospheric circulation anomalies, and of extratropical and tropical circulation anomalies.     

影响江南春雨年际变化的前期海洋信号及可能机理

基于诊断,本文计算了1982~2014年江南春雨的开始时间、结束时间和总降水量,分析了江南春雨的气候特征和年际变化,探讨了前冬Nino3.4区域海温异常与江南春雨的联系及可能机理。结果表明,江南春雨的起止时间和总降水量都具有显著的年际变化,前冬赤道东太平洋海温与江南春雨总量存在显著的正相关。前冬Nino3.4指数为正时,一方面通过Walker环流在赤道120°E附近区域激发出异常下沉运动以及低层异常反气旋,增强了南海地区低层西南气流以及水汽输送,另一方面与东太平洋海温变化相联系的印度洋增暖在赤道印度洋引发低层东风和孟加拉湾北部反气旋环流异常,进一步增强了江南地区的水汽输送;高层南亚地区则存在西风异常,对应江南上空辐散和抽吸作用加强,导致上升运动进一步增强,使得江南春雨总量增加;前冬Nino3.4指数为负时则次年春雨偏少;并且前冬El Ni?o事件的强度对春雨异常也有影响,前冬El Ni?o强（弱）的年份,海温异常的信号能（不能）持续到春季,江南春雨总量通常偏多（偏少）。另外,加入了前冬南极涛动指数和印度洋海盆一致模所建立的江南春雨总量的多元线性回归方程,其回归结果比基于单独的Nino3.4指数能更好地反映江南春雨的异常,可用于季节预测。     

前冬印度洋海盆一致模对ENSO衰减期华南春季降水的影响

利用逐月台站观测降水、HadISST1.1海温和ERA5大气再分析资料,研究了前冬印度洋海盆一致模（Indian Ocean Basin,IOB）对华南春季降水（SCSR）与ENSO关系的影响,并分析了IOB通过调控ENSO环流异常进而影响SCSR的可能机制。结果表明：当前冬El Ni?o(La Ni?a)与IOB暖（冷）位相同时发生时,SCSR显著增多（减少）;而当El Ni?o或La Ni?a单独发生而IOB处于中性时,SCSR并无明显多寡倾向。其原因在于,当El Ni?o与IOB暖相位并存时,前冬热带印度洋和赤道中东太平洋均为正海温异常（Sea-Surface Temperature Anomaly,SSTA）,且印度洋SSTA强度可一直维持至春季。在对流层低层,春季赤道中东太平洋的正SSTA激发出异常西北太平洋反气旋（Western North Pacific Anticyclone,WNPAC）。而热带印度洋的正SSTA在副热带印度洋激发出赤道南北反对称环流,赤道以北的东风异常有利于异常WNPAC西伸;赤道以南的西风异常与来自赤道西太平洋的东风异常在东印度洋辐合上升,气流至西...     

Parallel Comparison of the 1982/83,1997/98 and 2015/16 Super El Nios and Their Effects on the Extratropical Stratosphere

This study uses multiple sea surface temperature(SST) datasets to perform a parallel comparison of three super El Ni os and their effects on the stratosphere. The results show that, different from ordinary El Ni os, warm SST anomalies appear earliest in the western tropical Pacific and precede the super El Ni o peak by more than 18 months. In the previous winter,relative to the mature phase of El Ni o, as a precursor, North Pacific Oscillation-like circulation anomalies are observed. A Pacific–North America(PNA) teleconnection appears in the extratropical troposphere during the mature phase, in spite of the subtle differences between the intensities, as well as the zonal position, of the PNA lobes. Related to the negative rainfall response over the tropical Indian Ocean, the PNA teleconnection in the winter of 1997/98 is the strongest among the three super El Ni os. The northern winter stratosphere shows large anomalies in the polar cap temperature and the circumpolar westerly, if the interferences from other factors are linearly filtered from the circulation data. Associated with the positive PNA response in a super El Ni o winter, positive polar cap temperature anomalies and circumpolar easterly anomalies,though different in timing, are also observed in the mature winters of the three super El Ni os. The stratospheric polar vortex in the next winter relative to the 1982/83 and 1997/98 events is also anomalously weaker and warmer, and the stratospheric circulation conditions remain to be seen in the coming winter following the mature phase of the 2015/16 event.     

A diagnostic study of the impact of El Niño on the precipitation in China

The impact of El Niño on the precipitation in China for different seasons are investigated diagnostically. It is found that El Niño can influence the precipitation in China significantly during its mature phase. In the Northern winter, spring and autumn, the positive precipitation anomalies are found in the southern part of China during the El Niño mature phase. In the Northern summer, the patterns of the precipitation anomalies in the El Niño mature phase are different from those in the other seasons. The negative precipitation anomalies appear in both southern and northern parts of China, while in between around the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River valleys the precipitation anomalies tend to be positive. In the Northern winter, spring and autumn, the physical process by which El Niño affects the precipitation in the southern part of China can be explained by the features of the circulation anomalies over East Asia during the El Niño mature phase (Zhang et al., 1996). The appearance of an anticyclonic anomaly to the north of the maritime continent in the lower troposphere during the El Niño mature phase intensifies the subtropical high in the western Pacific and makes it shift westward. The associated southwesterly flow is responsible for the positive precipitation anomalies in the southern part of China. In the Northern summer, the intensified western Pacific subtropical high covers the southeastern periphery of China so that the precipitation there becomes less. In addition, the weakening of the Indian monsoon provides less moisture inflow to the northern part of China.     

西风与季风在青藏高原的耦合模态及其季节性变化特征

青藏高原是我国的水塔,西风与季风及其相互作用是导致亚洲天气和气候变化最重要的环流系统。本文基于1981～2020年大气再分析资料,采用经验正交函数分解方法（Empirical Orthogonal Function,EOF）提取了西风与季风季节循环分量在青藏高原的耦合模态,并对其季节变化特征进行分析。研究发现,第一主模态方差贡献率高达78.39%,主要反映的是东亚季风、南亚季风和对流层高层中纬度西风的季节循环特征及各个季节的年际变化特征。夏季在对流层高层高原及其南侧主要为东风气流,范围从北纬5°至35°,对流层低层则表现为典型的绕高原气旋式季风环流系统,热带和副热带地区为西南季风控制,冬季的环流结构刚好相反。耦合模态的冬、夏季节转换节点与东亚季风和南亚季风的季节转换时间基本一致。从年际变化的角度来看,各个季节耦合模态的强度偏强时,东亚季风和南亚季风均偏强,西风带位置偏北;反之,季风偏弱,西风带位置偏南。厄尔尼诺—南方涛动（El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation,ENSO）是影响西风与季风耦合模态年际变化的关键外强迫,拉尼娜（La Ni?a）事件发生的前夏、前秋和次年夏季耦合模态的强度均增强,冬季至次年春季耦合模态的强度均减弱。西风与季风耦合的第二主模态主要表现为对流层高层高原上的东风及其南侧西风,以及低层南亚季风区的西南季风和西北太平洋反气旋的协同变化特征。该模态的方差贡献率为4.68%,表现出明显年际差异的同时还呈现显著减弱的长期趋势,尤其是在冬季。     

2015年夏季东亚和南亚降水异常与热带太平洋海温异常的联系及机理

2015年我国东部夏季降水呈现南北反位相的空间分布,河套地区降水异常偏少、长江中下游地区降水异常偏多,同期印度中部地区降水负异常,上述三个区域2015年夏季降水距平百分率绝对值极大值均超过55%。东亚和南亚地区2015年夏季降水异常的形成机理主要是由于该年夏季处于El Niňo事件的发展位相,菲律宾群岛及邻近区域反气旋环流异常,江淮地区至日本列岛气旋式环流异常,对流层低层位势高度异常场和整层水汽异常输送场亦存在相一致的空间分布,表现为负位相的EAP(East Asian-Pacific)/PJ(Pacific-Japan)型遥相关,有利于河套地区降水偏少和长江流域降水偏多。热带太平洋海温异常引起热带地区Walker环流负异常,热带西太平洋地区上空受异常下沉气流控制,热带印度洋区域对流层盛行东风异常,减弱了印度夏季风,并造成了印度中部地区夏季降水偏少。另一方面,印度上空对流层低层受异常反气旋控制,该异常反气旋北侧的西风异常沿着青藏高原南麓向东运动,增强了与EAP/PJ型遥相关相联系的异常水汽输送,有利于维持和增强河套地区降水负异常和长江中下游地区降水正异常。     

Simulation of the response of the North Pacific Ocean to the anomalous atmospheric circulation associated with El Niño

During El Niño events when positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies form in the equatorial Pacific, SST anomalies also tend to develop in the North Pacific. This study attempts to model and explain the large-scale features of the observed SST anomaly field in the North Pacific during the fall and winter of the El Niño year. The experiment design consists of a mixed layer ocean model of the North Pacific which is forced by atmospheric surface fields from two sets of Community Climate Model (CCM) integrations: the El Niño set with prescribed positive SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific; and the control set which is obtained from an extended CCM integration with prescribed climatological SSTs. The response of the midlatitude ocean to atmospheric surface fields associated with El Niño is obtained by compositing each set of model integrations (El Niño and Control) and then taking the difference between the composites. The ocean model is able to reproduce the general features of the observed midlatitude SST anomaly pattern: warm water in the northeast Pacific and an elliptically shaped cold pool in the central Pacific. In these regions, a large fraction of the temperature anomalies are significant at the 95% level as indicated by a two tailed t-test. The ocean temperature anomalies simulated by the model are primarily caused by changes in the sensible and latent heat flux and to a lesser extent the longwave radiation flux. Entrainment of cold water from below the mixed layer also influences ocean temperatures. However, the entrainment anomaly pattern has a complex spatial structure which does not always coincide with the simulated mixed layer temperature anomalies.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dümenil     

2018/2019年冬季浙江罕见持续阴雨天气的环流异常与海温强迫

利用NCEP/NCAR全球再分析资料、地面观测资料和自动站降水资料,分析了2018/2019年冬季浙江罕见连续阴雨寡照天气过程中冬季风环流和南支槽等环流异常,并从西风带波动、海温强迫等方面研究了局地环流异常的成因。结果表明:2018/2019年冬季连阴雨事件中雨日、日照破历史记录,雨量较常年同期明显偏多。主要的环流异常为西北太平洋异常反气旋（WNPAC）明显偏北,同时阿留申低压和西伯利亚高压亦偏北,东亚地区40°N以南有强的偏南风异常,冬季风偏弱;南支槽较常年偏强,保证了浙江上空有持续的水汽和扰动输送。对流层中层存在沿欧洲向东亚—西太平洋传播的波动能量,波能在东亚地区一直向南传播至20°N以南,可能导致WNPAC明显北抬和南支槽加强。ENSO是WNPAC的重要强迫源,ENSO暖位相使得海洋性大陆出现异常对流冷却,而浙江上空对流加强,ENSO对南支槽活动强度亦有明显的制约作用。中国近海海温偏高是WNPAC和阿留申低压明显偏北的重要影响因素。2018/2019年冬季局地环流异常可能由ENSO和中国近海海温协同强迫所致。     

North-East monsoon rainfall extremes over the southern peninsular India and their association with El Niño

The present study investigates the relationship between extreme north-east (NE) monsoon rainfall (NEMR) over the Indian peninsula region and El Niño forcing. This turns out to be a critical science issue especially after the 2015 Chennai flood. The puzzle being while most El Niños favour good NE monsoon, some don’t. In fact some El Niño years witnessed deficit NE monsoon. Therefore two different cases (or classes) of El Niños are considered for analysis based on standardized NEMR index and Niño 3.4 index with case-1 being both Niño-3.4 and NEMR indices greater than +1 and case-2 being Niño-3.4 index greater than +1 and NEMR index less than −1. Composite analysis suggests that SST anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific are strong in both cases but large differences are noted in the spatial distribution of SST over the Indo-western Pacific region. This questions our understanding of NEMR as mirror image of El Niño conditions in the Pacific. It is noted that the favourable excess NEMR in case-1 is due to anomalous moisture transport from Bay of Bengal and equatorial Indian Ocean to southern peninsular India. Strong SST gradient between warm western Indian Ocean (and Bay of Bengal) and cool western Pacific induced strong easterly wind anomalies during NE monsoon season favour moisture transport towards the core NE monsoon region. Further anomalous moisture convergence and convection over the core NE monsoon region supported positive rainfall anomalies in case-1. While in case-2, weak SST gradients over the Indo-western Pacific and absence of local low level convergence over NE monsoon region are mainly responsible for deficit rainfall. The ocean dynamics in the Indian Ocean displayed large differences during case-1 and case-2, suggesting the key role of Rossby wave dynamics in the Indian Ocean on NE monsoon extremes. Apart from the large scale circulation differences the number of cyclonic systems land fall for case-1 and case-2 have also contributed for variations in NE monsoon rainfall extremes during El Niño years. This study indicates that despite having strong warming in the central and eastern Pacific, NE monsoon rainfall variations over the southern peninsular India is mostly determined by SST gradient over the Indo-western Pacific region and number of systems formation in the Bay of Bengal and their land fall. The paper concludes that though the favourable large scale circulation induced by Pacific is important in modulating the NE monsoon rainfall the local air sea interaction plays a key role in modulating or driving rainfall extremes associated with El Niño.     

2010年西北太平洋与南海热带气旋活动异常的成因分析

利用中国气象局热带气旋（TC）资料、NCEP/NCAR 再分析资料和美国 NOAA 向外长波辐射（OLR）等资料,分析了2010年西北太平洋（WNP）及南海（SCS）热带气旋活动异常的可能成因,讨论了同期大气环流配置和海温外强迫对TC生成和登陆的动力和热力条件的影响。结果表明,2010年生成TC频数明显偏少,生成源地显著偏西,而登陆TC频数与常年持平。导致7～10月TC频数明显偏少的大尺度环境场特征为：副热带高压较常年异常偏强、西伸脊点偏西,季风槽位置异常偏西,弱垂直风切变带位置也较常年偏西且范围偏小,南亚高压异常偏强,贝加尔湖附近对流层低高层均为反气旋距平环流,这些关键环流因子的特征和配置都不利于 TC 在WNP的东部生成。影响TC活动的外强迫场特征为：2010年热带太平洋经历了El Ni?o事件于春末夏初消亡、La Ni?a事件于7月形成的转换;7～10月,WNP海表温度维持正距平,140°E以东为负距平且对流活动受到抑制;暖池次表层海温异常偏暖,对应上空850 hPa为东风距平,有利于季风槽偏西和TC在WNP的西北侧海域生成。WNP海表温度和暖池次表层海温的特征是2010年TC生成频数偏少、生成源地异常偏西的重要外强迫信号。有利于7～10月热带气旋西行和登陆的500 hPa风场特征为：北太平洋为反气旋环流距平,其南侧为东风异常,该东风异常南缘可到25°N,并向西扩展至中国大陆地区;南海和西北太平洋地区15°N以南的低纬也为东风异常;在这样的风场分布型下,TC容易受偏东气流引导西行并登陆我国沿海地区。这是2010年生成TC偏少但登陆TC并不少的重要环流条件。     

Why Was the Strengthening of Rainfall in Summer over the Yangtze River Valley in 2016 Less Pronounced than that in 1998 under Similar Preceding El Niño Events?——Role of Midlatitude Circulation in August

It is widely recognized that rainfall over the Yangtze River valley (YRV) strengthens considerably during the decaying summer of El Niño, as demonstrated by the catastrophic flooding suffered in the summer of 1998. Nevertheless, the rainfall over the YRV in the summer of 2016 was much weaker than that in 1998, despite the intensity of the 2016 El Niño having been as strong as that in 1998. A thorough comparison of the YRV summer rainfall anomaly between 2016 and 1998 suggests that the difference was caused by the sub-seasonal variation in the YRV rainfall anomaly between these two years, principally in August. The precipitation anomaly was negative in August 2016——different to the positive anomaly of 1998. Further analysis suggests that the weaker YRV rainfall in August 2016 could be attributable to the distinct circulation anomalies over the midlatitudes. The intensified "Silk Road Pattern" and upper-tropospheric geopotential height over the Urals region, both at their strongest since 1980, resulted in an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over midlatitude East Asia with anomalous easterly flow over the middle-to-lower reaches of the YRV in the lower troposphere. This easterly flow reduced the climatological wind, weakened the water vapor transport, and induced the weaker YRV rainfall in August 2016, as compared to that in 1998. Given the unique sub-seasonal variation of the YRV rainfall in summer 2016, more attention should be paid to midlatitude circulation——besides the signal in the tropics——to further our understanding of the predictability and variation of YRV summer rainfall.     

Different impacts of various El Niño events on the Indian Ocean Dipole

Our early work (Wang and Wang in J Clim 26:1322–1338, 2013) separates El Niño Modoki events into El Niño Modoki I and II because they show different impacts on rainfall in southern China and typhoon landfall activity. The warm SST anomalies originate in the equatorial central Pacific and subtropical northeastern Pacific for El Niño Modoki I and II, respectively. El Niño Modoki I features a symmetric SST anomaly distribution about the equator with the maximum warming in the equatorial central Pacific, whereas El Niño Modoki II shows an asymmetric distribution with the warm SST anomalies extending from the northeastern Pacific to the equatorial central Pacific. The present paper investigates the influence of the various groups of El Niño events on the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Similar to canonical El Niño, El Niño Modoki I is associated with a weakening of the Walker circulation in the Indo-Pacific region which decreases precipitation in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and maritime continent and thus results in the surface easterly wind anomalies off Java-Sumatra. Under the Bjerknes feedback, the easterly wind anomalies induce cold SST anomalies off Java- Sumatra, and thus a positive IOD tends to occur in the Indian Ocean during canonical El Niño and El Niño Modoki I. However, El Niño Modoki II has an opposite impact on the Walker circulation, resulting in more precipitation and surface westerly wind anomalies off Java-Sumatra. Thus, El Niño Modoki II is favorable for the onset and development of a negative IOD on the frame of the Bjerknes feedback.     

Altered atmospheric responses to eastern Pacific and central Pacific El Niños over the North Atlantic region due to stratospheric interference

The two types of El Niño that have been identified, namely the eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niños, are known to exert different climatic impacts on the North Atlantic region during winter. Here, we investigate the characteristics of the teleconnection of the two El Niño types with a focus on the stratosphere-troposphere coupling. During the EP El Niño, polar stratospheric warming and polar vortex weakening frequently occur with a strong tendency for downward propagation near the tropopause. Consequently, the atmospheric pattern within the troposphere over the North Atlantic sector during midwinter closely resembles the negative North Atlantic Oscillation pattern. In contrast, during CP El Niño events stratospheric warming events exhibit a much weaker downward propagation tendency. This difference in the stratospheric circulation response arises from the different seasonal evolution of the tropospheric wave response to the two El Niño types. For the EP El Niño, the Aleutian Low begins growing during December and is sustained throughout the entire winter (December to February), which provides favorable conditions for the continuous downward propagation of the stratospheric warming. We also discuss the origin of the difference in the teleconnections from the two types of El Niño associated with the distinct longitudinal position of the warm SST anomaly that determines troposphere-stratosphere coupling.     

Sea surface temperature associations with the late Indian summer monsoon

Recent gridded and historical data are used in order to assess the relationships between interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns over the Indian and Pacific oceans. Interannual variability of ISM rainfall and dynamical indices for the traditional summer monsoon season (June–September) are strongly influenced by rainfall and circulation anomalies observed during August and September, or the late Indian summer monsoon (LISM). Anomalous monsoons are linked to well-defined LISM rainfall and large-scale circulation anomalies. The east-west Walker and local Hadley circulations fluctuate during the LISM of anomalous ISM years. LISM circulation is weakened and shifted eastward during weak ISM years. Therefore, we focus on the predictability of the LISM. Strong (weak) (L)ISMs are preceded by significant positive (negative) SST anomalies in the southeastern subtropical Indian Ocean, off Australia, during boreal winter. These SST anomalies are mainly linked to south Indian Ocean dipole events, studied by Besera and Yamagata (2001) and to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. These SST anomalies are highly persistent and affect the northwestward translation of the Mascarene High from austral to boreal summer. The southeastward (northwestward) shift of this subtropical high associated with cold (warm) SST anomalies off Australia causes a weakening (strengthening) of the whole monsoon circulation through a modulation of the local Hadley cell during the LISM. Furthermore, it is suggested that the Mascarene High interacts with the underlying SST anomalies through a positive dynamical feedback mechanism, maintaining its anomalous position during the LISM. Our results also explain why a strong ISM is preceded by a transition in boreal spring from an El Niño to a La Niña state in the Pacific and vice versa. An El Niño event and the associated warm SST anomalies over the southeastern Indian Ocean during boreal winter may play a key role in the development of a strong ISM by strengthening the local Hadley circulation during the LISM. On the other hand, a developing La Niña event in boreal spring and summer may also enhance the east–west Walker circulation and the monsoon as demonstrated in many previous studies.     

A note on the simulation of winter monsoon anomalies during an El Niño year

Summary This paper presents the results of the Florida State University atmospheric general circulation model that addresses the impact of sea surface temperature anomalies on an El Niño year. Northern Hemisphere winter season simulation. Specifically, our interest is in the simulation of seasonal winter monsoonal rainfall, the planetary scale divergent motions and the westerly wind anomalies of an El Niño year.The El Niño episode of 1982–1983 was interesting due to its higher than average amplitude and its overall evolution. By late 1982 the anomalous circulations associated with the sea surface temperature forcing had begun to take shape even though the anomalies did not attain their peak amplitude until February 1983. The atmosphere-ocean teleconnections set up a strong pattern of geopotential height anomalies during the Northern Hemisphere winter that coincides with El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean.Wallace and Gutzler (1981) defined a Pacific North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern index based on data from within this region. The El Niño episode of 1982–1983 has been shown to be strong via the PNA Index and illustrates an importance for climate models to correctly simulate these teleconnections. The importance of the forced anomalies can be seen in the long-range forecasting of conditions over North America as well as the winter monsoon intensity and location.In this study, we utilize a general circulation model with a resolution of triangular truncation at 42 waves to investigate the effects of prescribed sea surface temperature anomalies. We are able to simulate the majority of the large-scale atmospheric response although on regional climatic scales some phase shifts seem apparent.With 7 Figures     

Seasonal Phase-Locking of Peak Events in the Eastern Indian Ocean

The sea surface temperature （SST） anomaly of the eastern Indian Ocean （EIO） exhibits cold anomalies in the boreal summer or fall during E1 Nino development years and warm anomalies in winter or spring following the E1 Nino events. There also tend to be warm anomalies in the boreal summer or fall during La Nina development years and cold anomalies in winter or spring following the La Nina events. The seasonal phase-locking of SST change in the EIO associated with E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation is linked to the variability of convection over the maritime continent, which induces an atmospheric Rossby wave over the EIO. Local air-sea interaction exerts different effects on SST anomalies, depending on the relationship between the Rossby wave and the mean flow related to the seasonal migration of the buffer zone, which shifts across the equator between summer and winter. The summer cold events start with cooling in the Timor Sea, together with increasing easterly flow along the equator. Negative SST anomalies develop near Sumatra, through the interaction between the atmospheric Rossby wave and the underneath sea surface. These SST anomalies are also contributed to by the increased upwelling of the mixed layer and the equatorward temperature advection in the boreal fall. As the buffer zone shifts across the equator towards boreal winter, the anomalous easterly flow tends to weaken the mean flow near the equator, and the EIO SST increases due to the reduction of latent heat flux from the sea surface. As a result, wintertime SST anomalies appear with a uniform and nearly basin-wide pattern beneath the easterly anomalies. These SST anomalies are also caused by the increase in solar radiation associated with the anticyclonic atmospheric Rossby wave over the EIO. Similarly, the physical processes of the summer warm events, which are followed by wintertime cold SST anomalies, can be explained by the changes in atmospheric and oceanic fields with opposite signs to those anomalies described above.     

Analysis on Anomalous Precipitation in Southern China During Winter Monsoons

The winters of 1997/1998 and 1998/1999,corresponding to El Ni(?)o and La Ni(?)a episodes,respectively, were two typical rain-abundant and-scarce seasons for the southern China.In order to understand the cause of the anomalous precipitation during the two winters,a comparative analysis technique has been employed to investigate the differences in general circulation and moisture transportation between the two seasons. The results show that the abundant rainfall during the winter of 1997/1998 was associated with the ENSO warm episode event,eastward shifted weak westerly trough/ridge,weakened East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM),strengthened subtropical high,and presented two anti-cyclonic circulations over Hokkaido and the Philippine Sea,respectively,as well as one cyclonic circulation over the Yangtze River Basin in the anomalous wind fields of the lower troposphere.During the rain-scarce winter,however,the patterns of equatorial sea surface temperature anomalies and the circulation systems both in upper and lower levels were nearly the opposite of those during the rain-abundant winter.It has also been discovered that the water vapor over southern China during the winters came mainly from the southwesterly flow ahead of troughs in the southern branch of westerlies and the turning flow over the South China Sea-Indo-China Peninsula area;and the moisture transportation channels varied significantly with regard to height.The intensified flow in the southern branch of westerlies and the anti-cyclonic circulation anomaly over the Philippine Sea during the winter of 1997/1998 were favorable for moisture transportation to mainland China,however the two moisture transportation streams were dramatically weakened during the winter of 1998/1999 due to weak westerly flow and the dominance of a cold high system in the lower level over the southeast coast of China.Such a significant inter-annual change of moisture transportation is a key factor resulting in the obvious difference in precipitation between the two winters.     

Boreal winter rainfall anomaly over the tropical indo-pacific and its effect on northern hemisphere atmospheric circulation in CMIP5 models

Experimental outputs of 11 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project （AMIP） models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5） are analyzed to assess the atmospheric circulation anomaly over Northern Hemisphere induced by the anomalous rainfall over tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean during boreal winter.The analysis shows that the main features of the interannual variation of tropical rainfall anomalies,especially over the Central Pacific （CP） （5°S-5°N,175°E-135°W） and Indo-western Pacific （IWP） （20°S-20°N,110°-150°E） are well captured in all the CMIP5/AMIP models.For the IWP and western Indian Ocean （WIO） （10°S-10°N,45°-75°E）,the anomalous rainfall is weaker in the 11 CMIP5/AMIP models than in the observation.During El Ni（n）o/La Ni（n）a mature phases in boreal winter,consistent with observations,there are geopotential height anomalies known as the Pacific North American （PNA） pattern and Indo-western Pacific and East Asia （IWPEA） pattern in the upper troposphere,and the northwestern Pacific anticyclone （cyclone） （NWPA） in the lower troposphere in the models.Comparison between the models and observations shows that the ability to simulate the PNA and NWPA pattern depends on the ability to simulate the anomalous rainfall over the CP,while the ability to simulate the IWPEA pattern is related to the ability to simulate the rainfall anomaly in the IWP and WIO,as the SST anomaly is same in AMIP experiments.It is found that the tropical rainfall anomaly is important in modeling the impact of the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean on the extratropical atmospheric circulation anomaly.