The “Valley Economy” Model of Regional Development: A Case Study of Mountain Areas in Beijing,Northern China

A case study is presented of a regional development model for valley economies in the mountain areas of Beijing, China. The nature and framework of the valley economy model are described and the development of the model, which is specific to the mountain areas of Beijing, is analyzed. Five different valley economy models applied in the Beijing mountain areas are compared. The major purpose of the valley economy model is to develop the regional economy, including the selection of appropriate industries, the allocation of industrial space, the establishment of supply chains and the integration of various industries. Pilot experiments using the valley economy model have been conducted in seven counties（districts） in Beijing： Pinggu, Huairou, Changping, Mentougou, and Fangshan districts, and Yanqing and Miyun counties. Five models for developing the Beijing mountain areas have been explored, including： creative cultural industries, characteristic industry clusters, the promotion of large tourist areas, natural scenic tourism and folk cultural tourism. Each model has its own unique features and potential to help in the regional development of mountain areas.     

基于蚁群算法的城市可持续发展综合评价

在可持续发展体系分类的基础上，应用蚁群算法对可持续发展各分类指数公式和综合指数公式进行优化，建立可持续发展评价模型。将该模型应用于乌鲁木齐市可持续发展水平评价，评价结果与现状分析一敛。结果表明该模型简单适用、有良好的通用性。     

Vulnerability and sustainable development mode of coal cities in Northeast China

In this study, by carrying on the spot investigation to the seven coal cities in Northeast China and interviewing with the local authority and the residents, the authors definite the vulnerability that is closed to exposure, sensitivity and resilience, and set up vulnerability model of coal cities in Northeast China. At the same time, the authors broadly illustrate how the components of natural-social-economic system act in the coal area, so as to probe the ways to reduce vulnerability more effectively, such as preferential national policy and so on. Furthermore, the article studies the relationship between vulnerability and sustainable development. Vulnerability is a spatio-temporal function of sustainable development. The regional sustainable development refrains the spiral ascending of vulnerability. And the regional vulnerability and sustainable development appear in turn. Then the article analyzes the natural vulnerability, social vulnerability and economic vulnerability of coal cities in Northeast China. At last, combing vulnerability model and situation of coal cities in Northeast China, the authors put forward regional technology innovation mode, multi-dimension structure transformation mode, attracting investment mode and recycling economy mode to reduce vulnerability.     

国家可持续发展综合实验区的可持续发展公共信息网研究

国家“九五”科技攻关计划在国家可持续发展综合实验区建立了可持续发展公共信息网示范工程。本文介绍该示范工程的主要研究内容及成果;提出以发展为重点,通过资源、环境、经济、社会的动态平衡实现可持续发展的建模思路;提出“发展牵引”、“诊断决策”两种不同的可持续发展信息化类型;建立时空一体化、历史模拟、仿真预测、空间配准、知识能力建设以及环境与生态承载能力制约等模型和示范区的可持续发展公共信息网;介绍了可持续发展水平时空动态分析和农作物种植结构调整2个应用实例。该示范工程的完成,极大地推动了示范区信息化建设。     

基于深度学习的区域生态安全时空模拟与预测

区域作为人类、自然、社会共同作用和互相影响的复杂系统,对区域进行生态量化建模与模拟仿真,是实现区域可持续发展战略的关键。传统机器学习方法对区域生态系统建模取得了一定的成果,但难以确定学习特征和实现时空模拟。深度学习不需事先确定训练特征,具有优异的特征学习能力,能够提高模型预测精度,因此利用深度学习进行建模具有显著优势。本文使用植被净初级生产力（NPP）、气溶胶光学厚度（AOD）和人口格网数据,充分利用深度学习的优点,采用最优深度神经网络时空模拟,得到了河南省2007-2014年3 km分辨率的生态赤字空间分布图和河南省2015-2020年的生态赤字时间预测结果并进行分析,为区域生态的科学管理和建设供科学依据和参考。     

可持续发展评价模型及应用实例

在分析可持续发展指标特征基础上，提出按持续、协调、结构和集聚四类建立可持续发展分类单项指标指数公式和综合指数公式，并用遗传算法对公式中参数进行优化，建立了可持续发展的综合指数评价模型。该模型应用于乌鲁木齐市的可持续发展评价结果与实况分析结果基本一致，该模型有简单、实用的特点。     

A SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE MIYUN RESERVOIR AREA，CHINA

Miyun Reservoir was designated as the water source of Beijing City in 1982.Since that time ,so-cio-economic development in Miyun Area has been slowing due to the restriction of severe environmental standards.More and more attention from the public and government has been paid to the regional sustainable development.And an effect-tive planning for the local society management system is urgently desired.In this study,a regional sustainable develop-ment system dynamics model,named MiyunSD, is developed for supporting this planning task.MiyunSDconsists of dynamo-ic simulation models that explicitly consider information feedback that governs interactions in the system.Such models are capable of simulating the systemˊs behavior and predicting its developing situation of the future.For the study case,interact-tions among a number of system components within a time frame of fifteen years are examined dynamically.Three plan-ning altermatives are carefully considered.The base run is based on an assumption that the existing pattern of human active-ties will prevail in the entire planning horizon,and the other altermatives are based on previous and present planning stud-ies.The different alternatives will get different systemˊs environmental and socio-economic results.Through analyzing these dynamic results,local authorities may find an optimal way to realize the objectives that the regional environment will be well protected and at the same time the economy will be rapidly developed.     

区域可持续发展集成模型的分析与应用研究——以黄河三角洲地区为例

 本文在总结国内、外可持续发展指标体系的基础上,按照信息的综合水平将黄河三角洲可持续发展指标体系区分为I级指标体系和II级指标体系,其中I级指标体系对应数据库,II级指标体系对应模型库。在分析多目标决策模型、风险决策模型和系统动力学模型等综合模型优、缺点的基础上,提出了黄河三角洲可持续发展集成模型的研究框架。总结了近几年来黄河三角洲可持续发展集成模型的研究进展和正在进行的研究工作,讨论了进一步需要研究的内容     

遗传神经网络在地面沉降趋势预测中的应用

受地下流体资源和固体矿物开采、地面动静荷载、地下空间开发等人为因素的影响,区域性地面沉降问题越来越突出;构建区域地面沉降预测预报模型,及时发现潜在隐患并拟定合理的防治措施对保障经济社会与生态环境可持续发展方面具有重要意义。该文基于遗传算法的神经网络在地面沉降趋势预测中应用,对几种算法从训练速度、拟合水平以及预测能力方面作了比较分析。     

区域可持续发展的指标、标准和限制

世界各国包括俄罗斯在内已经出版了大量关于可持续发展的理论研究方面的书籍。但总体而言,在不同结构层次(全球、国家、区域和地方)的可持续发展模型中,区域水平上的模型可能是最复杂和最基础的层次。本文在构建可持续发展模型的框架下,给出了一个区域经济、社会和生态发展的指标体系、标准和限制,并建立了一套评价区域自然资源潜力及其动态变化的方法。首先,对区域层次上达到可持续发展的条件和内容进行分析。其次,给出一个区域经济、社会和生态发展的框架。其中区域发展的经济质量是指其自身资源状况所带来的区域发展能力;区域发展的社会质量是指由区域的人口潜力和社会结构所带来的在一个长时期内稳定的区域人口以及由此提供的高标准生活质量的能力;区域发展的生态质量是指在一个长时期内区域保持其自然资源潜力和高质量环境的能力。区域可持续发展是在一个长时期内(10年)区域高质量的发展,在区域发展质量水平上进行可持续性和平衡性的评价是必要的,为此建立三者之间适当的比例关系。第三,为反映区域间发展的差异,对区域内的经济、社会等进行自然-经济区划以及对每个分区进行相应的指标的计算。这些绝对和相对的可持续发展比率反映了一定时期内实际的状态距离标准值的程度,刻画了区域发展的质量特征。如果这种比率发生变化,或者相对标准值发生动态改变,那么这些比率就可以评估发展的稳定性,以及同时反映了区域发展在质量上的提高或者降低。第四,区域自然资源潜力及其动态变化的评价。第一步是进行局部自然资源分区和把国土自然资源系统作为最复杂的评价对象进行整体考虑。然后对每一个自然资源系统进行动态平衡的计算(这种平衡反映了自然资源的动态和状态)。自然资源潜在的变化可以用实际的或者预测的数据进行计算。     

Sustainable development of cross-border regions: A methodological study

1INTRODUCTIONBARRETT(1992)demonstratedaphenomenoninwhichtheinter-governmentalbehaviorsareeffectivelydescribedbyanumberofslipperyfishermen.Thefisherydilemmaillustratesaphenomenonthatiscommontomanysocialandeconomicproblemsinwhichtheprivateincentivesofindependentagents(liketheslipperyfishermenasabove)preventtheagentsfromreachinganoutcomewhichmakesalltheagentsbetteroff.Iftheresourceisunderthejurisdictionofasinglegovernment,theexploitationofitcanbeeasilycoordinatedbythegovernmentitself.Butif…     

Regional development and regionalization: Retrospect of China’s historical enlightenment

Chinese had noticed regional differences in ancient times and thus arouse the concept of regional sustainable development which was successfully applied to delta cultivation and civilization. Over the long term of regional development and regional exchange, much experience therefore was accumulated based on coastal zones, toward both inner land and open ocean. Regionalization, a basic job preceding sustainable development of a region, has also been carried out in China since ancient times. More important, patterns of regionalization were retained, these presents serve as references even today. Reflections on China’s historical enlightenment can assist us in locating the breakthroughs in regional development in the 21st century: facing the oceans with the seaport cities as nucleuses.     

循环经济又好又快促进区域持续发展

循环经济是一种区域可持续发展的生态经济,也是我国全面建设小康社会和加快推进现代化发展阶段的一种新“社会-经济”模式。本文探讨了对循环经济的理念与共识,及其发展基础。同时,以上海、北京等大城市开始萌发的循环经济新模式,评述国内外对循环经济普及开发的案例。指出循环经济是推进区域经济可持续发展,保护资源与环境的重要战略之一。     

DESIGN AND APPLICATION OF DYNAMIC MONITORING AND VISUALIZATION MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEM OF KARST LAND ROCKY DESERTIFICATION

In order to study the spatial-temporal change and environmental management of regional karst LUCC (land use and land cover change) and its causative environmental effect-rocky dcsertification by integrating qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, and relying on RS, GIS and GPS (3S) techniques, karst land rocky derification dynamic monitoring and visualization management information system (KLRD.DMVM.IS) is framed, which includes design aim and structure model, function design, database design and model system design. The model system design gives priority to dynamic monitoring, drive force diagnosis, comprehensive evaluation and decision support of karst rocky desertification. From the viewpoint of model type, mathematic expression and its meaning, the dynamic monitoring models are concretely devised to reflect the spatial and temporal changing features and the trend of karst LUCC and rocky desertification. Taking Du‘an Yao Autonomic County of Guangxi as an example, the KLRD.DMVM.1S is systematically analyzed in the application of the process and trend of karst LUCC and rocky desertiflcation in Du‘an County, and it provides the technical support for the study on karst land rocky desertification.     

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF MARINE ECONOMY IN CHINA

China is a large marine country. Developing marine economy is an effective way to solve a series of problems with which man is faced, such as the want of natural resources, space limitation, the environmental deterioration, etc. This article analyzes the rich resources of marine biology, harbor, offshore oil and natural gas and coastal tourism resources in China and describes the developing features and regional differences of marine economy. To realize the sustainable development of marine economy in China, what we need to do are as follows: 1 ) to list exploiting ocean into national development strategy; 2) to realize integrated economy of sea and land; 3) to develop ocean by science and technology; 4) to perfect legal institution of marine environment; 5) to establish new idea of sea defending.     

地学信息图谱与区域可持续发展虚拟

地学信息图谱综合了景观综合图的简洁性和数学模型的抽象性 ,它是现代空间技术与我国传统研究成果结合的产物 ,它可反演过去、预测未来。本文在分析地学信息图谱、生态系统发展战略、DL U土地利用战略、数学模型与地理信息系统集成等研究成果的基础上 ,设计了一个区域可持续发展虚拟系统。在这个虚拟系统中 ,如何将区域可持续发展的有关信息转换为征兆图、诊断图和实施图是其核心理论问题。数学模型计算机程序自动生成软件和开放式地理信息系统的研究成果表明 ,这些理论问题在不久的将来是可以解决的。也就是说 ,这个区域可持续发展虚拟系统的进一步研究 ,能够形成一个可操作的、实用的决策支持系统。     

空间数据挖掘的区域循环经济决策支持框架设计

循环经济是实现可持续发展的重要保证。本文在区域可持续发展决策支持系统研究成果的基础上,结合空间数据挖掘技术,提出区域循环经济空间决策支持系统的框架设计。并介绍了空间数据挖掘在区域循环经济决策中的一些应用。     

RELATIVITY AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

From the realism of science, and taking the guide of EINSTEIN‘s Relativity as guide, this article called in question the present theory of the sustainable development by the rational thinking of philosophy and a close logic inference. It is found that there are many paradoxes to the theory. Through more deepening and meticulous inference, we arrived at philosophic language of science about the sustainable development. The sustainable development is “non-sustainable development”, and the non-sustainable development is “the best sustainable development”. While carrying out philosophical principle thinking and repeating science demonstration for the sustainable development, this article got further confirmation that the existence of human being at the minimum environment cost may help them obtain motive power of the sustainable development. In fact, this foundation motive power exists in the flow of development in different organization levels, meanwhile it exists in strategy of intuition living of the ancient people. Only in relative lower environment cost to live can we get the support system of science for the sustainable develooment, and be able really to achieve the basic goal of the sustainable development.     

Major problems of sustainable development along the bank area of the Changjiang River

TheChangiiangRiverisrichinfreshwaterandwaterpowerresources,themeanrunoffandwaterpoweroftheriverareabout37%and52%respectivelyoftotalonesofChina.Inaddition,theChanaiiangRiverhastheimmensenavigationpotentialandvaluableshorelineresources,thenavigablelengthreaches364okmandtheallshorelinelengthisabout6OOokmfromYihinCitytotheestuary.Moreover,theChangiiangRiver,withtheadvantagesofsuitablelocationandbroadhinterland,crossesEast,MiddleandWestEco-nomicZonewithdifferenteconomiclevelsofChina,soitsuniq…     

Approach to the Geopolitical Influences of Great Powers in Southeast Asia: Case Studies of China and the US

A quantitative approach to the national geopolitical influence is helpful to provide a reference for national sustainable development on the international stage, based on describing national diplomatic capacity and overseas influence. Herein, this study proposes a complex geopolitical influence model, considering the affected nations' response. The geopolitical influences of great power in the affected nation are correlated with overall strength, the acceptance degree of the affected nation to the great power and the distance between both sides. Then, the geopolitical influences of China and the US in Southeast Asia countries are empirically analyzed from 2005 to 2015. The geopolitical influence of China in Southeast Asia has been largely growing for the past decades, accompanying with a constant trend of the US' effects. It is believed that China and the US can coexist peacefully in Southeast Asia to promote the regional development, and jointly create an open, inclusive and balanced regional cooperation architecture that benefits all nations in this region and great powers, through mutual political trust and economic beneficial cooperation. This study may contribute to advancing the policy debate and determining the optimal cooperation in pledging commitment to a new and sustainable model of great power relationship among the various regional geopolitical options.