Calculating snow-avalanche return period from tree-ring data

The return period is a key element used for snow-avalanche characterization. To calculate the return period, historical data regarding past snow-avalanche activity are required. In mountain areas where past snow avalanches are poorly documented, dendrogeomorphic approaches constitute a reliable method for the reconstruction of past snow avalanches at the temporal scale of living trees. This paper presents an automated method for calculating the snow-avalanche return period using a digital elevation model and the location of the trees disturbed by every reconstructed snow-avalanche occurrence. Unlike the existing method, the method we propose requires neither the calculation of return period for every sampled tree nor the use of interpolation. This new method is based on the determination of spatial extent for every past snow-avalanche occurrence using the upslope area algorithm. The number of past snow-avalanche occurrences is calculated for every pixel of the path. The chronology length is divided by the number of past snow-avalanche occurrences to obtain the return period. In the present paper, both the proposed method and the existing method are applied to calculate the return period for three confined snow-avalanche paths located in Parâng Mountains, part of the Romanian Carpathians. Results are compared and discussed.     

Empirical Relationships for Debris Flows

The assessment of the debris flow hazard potential has to rely on semi-quantitative methods. Due to the complexity of the debris-flow process, numerical simulation models of debris flows are still limited with regard to practical applications. Thus, an overview is given of empirical relationships that can be used to estimate the most important parameters of debris-flow behavior. In a possible procedure, an assessment of a maximum debris-flow volume may be followed by estimates of the peak discharge, the mean flow velocity, the total travel distance, and the runout distance on the fan. The applicability of several empirical equations is compared with available field and laboratory data, and scaling considerations are used to discuss the variability of the parameters over a large range of values. Some recommendations are made with regard to the application of the presented relationships by practicing engineers, apart from advocating field reconnaissance and searching for historic events wherever possible.     

Regional debris-flow distribution and preliminary risk assessment from severe storm events in the Appalachian Blue Ridge Province,USA

Storms of high-intensity rainfall, including hurricanes, occur about once every 3 years in small areas of the mountains of the eastern United States posing a high debris-flow hazard. Reported casualties and monetary losses are often an insufficient and inadequate means for comparing the impact from debris flows. A simple GIS technique was used to characterize the distribution and density of debris flows for making a preliminary assessment of risk of impact on roads. This technique was used for comparison of three major severe storms resulting in numerous debris flows: August 10–17, 1940, near Deep Gap, North Carolina; August 19–20, 1969, in Nelson County, Virginia; and June 27, 1995, in Madison County, Virginia. Based on the criteria of the number of debris flows and area covered by debris flows, the August 19–20, 1969, Nelson County, Virginia, event was the most severe of the three storms and posed the greatest risk of debris-flow impact on roads.     

Assessment of debris flow multiple-surge load model based on the physical process of debris-barrier interaction

Debris-flow impact load is one of the key parameters for design of engineering countermeasures. The multiple-surge load model is a remarkable progress in estimating the debris-flow impact load, which clearly delineates the contribution of each surge to the total impact load and the corresponding acting points. In order to better understand the impact process of channelized debris flow against flexible barrier, a series of medium-scale flume experiments with varying debris-flow volumetric solid concentration (0.40/0.50/0.55) were conducted. Especially, surge impact behavior is focused so that the predictability of the multiple-surge load model could be assessed. The flume and model flexible barrier were instrumented so that both the barrier dynamic response and the debris-flow properties (flow regime) could be correlated to facilitate the assessment. The results show that multiple-surge load model well predicts the total impact load. However, due to the simplification in the impact process, the interaction between the mobile phase (surge) and the deposited phase is ignored, resulting in discrepancy in the load distribution between the model prediction and experimental result. The remixing of deposited debris by the subsequent surges leads to downward momentum transfer to the lower section of barrier, which should be regarded as an adverse scenario of the design of flexible-barrier anchor capacity.

     

Comparative Analysis of Risk Assessment of Landslides and Debris Flows of China in 2000 and 2010

Landslides and debris flows occurr in China frequently and cause disastrous losses of life and property. The risk assessment of landslides and debris flows and their spatial variations were comparatively analyzed in this paper, which has great significance for disaster prevention. This article selected 1 km×1 km grid as the assessment unit and with support of GIS technique, analyzed landslide and debris-flow risk distribution and their spatial variations from 2000 to 2010. The research results indicated that the spatial distribution of risk classes in 2000 and 2010 was obviously discrepant. Overall, taking the Heihe-Tengchong population density line as the boundary, the west of the line is mainly low risk area; the east of the line is mainly high risk area. Compared with the risk of 2000, the risk values of 2010 increased, with the high risk area and low risk area enlarged, moderate risk area reduced. The moderate risk area is the most unstable and sensitive risk area, and its risk class variation is significant. However, China is not a region with the high risk of landslide and debris-flow hazard at present. In the following next 10 years, the risk of landslides and debris flows in China will continue to increase.     

Property insurance against debris-flow disasters based on risk assessment and the principal–agent theory

Dongchuan City is highly threatened by debris-flow disasters originating from Shengou gully, a typical debris-flow gully along Xiaojiang River in Yunnan Province (Kang et al. 2004). Shengou gully is studied, and a hazard assessment with numerical simulation is developed using ArcGIS 9.2 software. Debris-flow numerical simulation is an important method for predicting debris-flow inundation regions, zoning debris-flow risks, and helping in the design of debris-flow control works. Meanwhile, vulnerability measurement is essential for hazard and risk research. Based on the self-organized map neural network method, we combine the six vulnerability indicators to create an integrated debris-flow vulnerability map that depicts the vulnerability levels of Dongchuan City in Shengou Basin. Based on the risk assessment (including hazard assessment and vulnerability assessment), we adopt the principal–agent theory and use the risk degree of debris flows as an important index to build the insurance model and analyze the insurance premium of debris-flow disasters in Dongchuan City. This paper discusses the model and mechanism of property insurance in debris-flow risk regions and aims to provide technical support for insurance companies to participate in disaster prevention and reduction.     

单沟泥石流灾害风险简易评价模型

按照灾害风险评价的一般框架,定性定量相结合,运用沟谷、降水、成灾因子、遭遇特征与易损程度等五项指标,尝试提出单沟泥石流灾害风险简易评价模型,并结合防治规划,提出了单沟泥石流灾害风险管理对策建议。采用云南新平县泥石流灾害调查数据,开展了实例校验,结果表明,该模型基本反映了沟谷泥石流灾害的相对风险水平,可为现阶段管理提供更加明确的分级依据。     

Assessment of Risk due to Debris Flow Events: A Case Study in Central Taiwan

In this paper, based on the concepts of uncertainty and reliability analyses, a method used for assessment of risk due to debris flow events is proposed. First, procedures for obtaining the configuration of debris-flow fans are presented. Then, the parameters affecting the configuration of debris-flow fans are identified and their corresponding means and standard deviations are derived. Finally, the proposed method is applied to the Shih-Pa-Chung Creek in central Taiwan. The expected deposition thickness at any point in the deposition area is computed and then the contours of risk for the 50-year and 100-year events are constructed. Regarding the expected deposition thickness, it is found that the closer the distance from the canyon mouth, the larger the debris-flow thickness becomes. The results also show that the contours of risk are of the shape of an ellipse similar to the shape of deposition area, and the risk at a point decreases with increasing distance of that point from the canyon mouth. In addition, when the return period of rainfall event is fixed, the variation in risk decreases as the distance from the canyon mouth increases. For the assessment of risk due to debris flow events, the proposed method is recommended as an alternative to the existing methods, because the influence of all the uncertainty of the parameters is considered.     

Debris-flow hazards on tributary junction fans,Chitral, Hindu Kush Range,northern Pakistan

The Chitral district of northern Pakistan lies in the eastern Hindu Kush Range. The population in this high-relief mountainous terrain is restricted to tributary-junction fans in the Chitral valley. Proximity to steep valley slopes renders these fans prone to hydrogeomorphic hazards, including landslides, floods and debris flows.This paper focuses on debris-flow hazards on tributary-junction fans in Chitral. Using field observations, satellite-image analyses and a preliminary morphometry, the tributary-junction fans in the Chitral valley are classified into (1) discrete and (2) composite. The discrete fans are modern-day active landforms and include debris cones associated with ephemeral gullies, debris fans associated with ephemeral channels and alluvial fans formed by perennial streams. The composite fans are a collage of sediment deposits of widely different ages and formed by diverse alluvial-fan forming processes. These include fans formed predominantly during MIS-2/Holocene interglacial stages superimposed by modern-day alluvial and debris fans. Composite fans are turned into relict fans when entrenched by modern-day perennial streams. These deeply incised channels discharge their sediment load directly into the trunk river without significant spread on fan surface. In comparison, when associated with ephemeral streams, active debris fans develop directly at composite-fan surfaces. Major settlements in Chitral are located on composite fans, as they provide large tracts of leveled land with easy accesses to water from the tributary streams. These fan surfaces are relatively more stable, especially when they are entrenched by perennial streams (e.g., Chitral, Ayun, and Reshun). When associated with ephemeral streams (e.g., Snowghar) or a combination of ephemeral and perennial streams (e.g., Drosh), these fans are subject to frequent debris-flow hazards.Fans associated with ephemeral streams are prone to high-frequency (∼10 years return period) debris-flow hazards. By comparison, fans associated with perennial streams are impacted by debris-flow hazards during exceptionally large events with return periods of ∼30 years. This study has utility for quick debris-flow hazard assessment in high-relief mountainous regions, especially in arid- to semi-arid south-central Asia where hazard zonation maps are generally lacking.     

Debris flows caused by failure of fill slopes: early detection,warning, and loss prevention

This paper describes early detection, warning, and loss prevention for debris flows originating as failures of fill slopes. Worldwide, fill slopes constructed on steep terrain for roads, hillside residential developments, timber harvest landings, etc., are an increasing source of debris-flow hazards. Some fill failures that generate debris flows are the final stage of incremental failures that provide warning signs of instability in the months or years before the debris flow. Mapping and analysis of minor features, such as cracks and small scarps, on paved or unpaved surfaces of fills can identify incipient and impending fill failures that are major debris-flow hazards. Potential debris-flow paths can be mapped and risk assessments conducted. Loss prevention or reduction can be achieved by (1) prioritized maintenance, (2) prioritized repair, (3) monitoring, (4) warnings for emergency officials and the public, and (5) risk avoidance or reduction in land-use planning, zoning, cooperation between jurisdictions, and project development.     

A regional real-time debris-flow warning system for the District of North Vancouver, Canada

Engineered (structural) debris-flow mitigation for all creeks with elements at risk and subject to debris flows is often outside of the financial capability of the regulating government, and heavy task-specific taxation may be politically undesirable. Structural debris-flow mitigation may only be achieved over long (decadal scale) time periods. Where immediate structural mitigation is cost-prohibitive, an interim solution can be identified to manage residual risk. This can be achieved by implementing a debris-flow warning system that enables residents to reduce their personal risk for loss of life through timely evacuation. This paper describes Canada??s first real-time debris-flow warning system which has been operated for 2 years for the District of North Vancouver. The system was developed based on discriminant function analyses of 20 hydrometric input variables consisting of antecedent rainfall and storm rainfall intensities for a total of 63 storms. Of these 27 resulted in shallow landslides and subsequent debris flows, while 36 storms were sampled that did not reportedly result in debris flows. The discriminant function analysis identified as the three most significant variables: the 4-week antecedent rainfall, the 2-day antecedent rainfall, and the 48-h rainfall intensity during the landslide-triggering storm. Discriminant functions were developed and tested for robustness against a nearby rain gauge dataset. The resulting classification functions provide a measure for the likelihood of debris-flow initiation. Several system complexities were added to render the classification functions into a usable and defensible warning system. This involved the addition of various functionality criteria such as not skipping warning levels, providing sufficient warning time before debris flows would occur, and hourly adjustment of actual rainfall vs. predicted rainfall since predicted rainfall is not error-free. After numerous iterations that involved warning threshold and cancelation refinements and further model calibrations, an optimal solution was found that best matches the actual debris-flow data record. Back-calculation of the model??s 21-year record confirmed that 76% of all debris flows would have occurred during warning or severe warning levels. Adding the past 2 years of system operation, this percentage increases marginally to 77%. With respect to the District of North Vancouver boundaries, all debris flows occur during Warning and Severe Warnings emphasizing the validity of the system to the area for which it was intended. To operate the system, real-time rainfall data are obtained from a rain gauge in the District of North Vancouver. Antecedent rainfall is automatically calculated as a sliding time window for the 4-week and 2-day periods every hour. The predicted 48-h storm rainfall data are provided by the Geophysical Disaster Computational Fluid Dynamics Centre at the Earth and Ocean Science Department at the University of British Columbia and is updated every hour as rainfall is recorded during a given storm. The warning system differentiates five different stages: no watch, watch level 1 (the warning level is unlikely to be reached), watch level 2 (the warning level is likely to be reached), warning, and severe warning. The debris-flow warning system has operated from October 1, 2009 to April 30, 2010 and October 1, 2010 and April 30, 2011. Fortunately, we were able to evaluate model performance because the exact times of debris flows during November 2009 and January 2010 were recorded. In both cases, the debris flows did not only occur during the warning level but coincided with peaks in the warning graphs. Furthermore, four debris flows occurred during a warning period in November 2009 in the Metro Vancouver watershed though their exact time of day is unknown. The warning level was reached 13 times, and in four of these cases, debris flows were recorded in the study area. One debris flow was recorded during watch II level. There was no severe warning during the 2 years of operation. The current warning level during the wet season (October to April) is accessible via District of North Vancouver??s homepage (www.dnv.org) and by automated telephone message during the rainy season.     

基于连续介质模型的滑坡启动机理数值模拟试验

滑坡启动机理研究是滑坡防治的前提条件。应用三维连续介质动态数值模型方法,采用摩擦模型、Voellmy模型2种流变模型,对滑坡启动过程进行分析求解,开展滑坡启动机理数值模拟研究。结果表明,不论是限制坡面(渠道型)还是无限制坡面,在2种流变模型和侵蚀率下,随着坡度逐渐增加,地形所提供给滑坡体的能量进一步增大,物质运动距离进一步增加,其相应的平均速度、最大速度(前端速度)和总动能也会进一步加大,经历了从缓慢蠕变至快速增加的过程。根据不同坡度下滑坡的启动、运动规律、堆积过程及各坡度下动力参数延程变化规律,可以将滑坡的启动坡度设定为25°~30°。该滑坡启动坡度的设定可为地质灾害防治措施和监测预警提供技术参考。     

GIS and Volcanic Risk Management

Volcanic catastrophes constitute a majorproblem in many developing and developed countries. Inrecent years population growth and the expansion ofsettlements and basic supply lines (e.g., water, gas,etc.) have greatly increased the impact of volcanicdisasters. Correct land-use planning is fundamental inminimising both loss of life and damage to property.In this contribution Geographical Information Systems(GIS), linked with remote sensing technology andtelecommunications/warning systems, have emerged asone of the most promising tools to support thedecision-making process. Some GIS are presented fortwo volcanic areas in Italy, Mt. Etna and Vesuvius.GIS role in risk management is then discussed, keepingin mind the different volcanic scenarios of effusiveand explosive phenomena. Mt. Etna system covers alarge area (more than 1,000 km²) potentiallyaffected by effusive phenomena (lava flows) whichcause damage to both houses and properties in general.No risk to life is expected. The time-scales of lavaflows allow, at least in principle, modification ofthe lava path by the building of artificial barriers.Vesuvius shows typically an explosive behaviour. Inthe case of a medium size explosive eruption, 600,000people would potentially have to be evacuated from anarea of about 200 km² around the Volcano, sincethey are exposed to ruinous, very fast phenomena likepyroclastic surges and flows, lahars, ash fallout,etc. Ash fallout and floods/lahars are also expectedin distal areas, between Vesuvius and Avellino,downwind of the volcano. GIS include digital elevationmodels, satellite images, volcanic hazard maps andvector data on natural and artificial features (energysupply lines, strategic buildings, roads, railways,etc.). The nature and the level of detail in the twodata bases are different, on the basis of thedifferent expected volcanic phenomena. The GIS havebeen planned: (a) for volcanic risk mitigation (hazard,value, vulnerability and risk map assessing), (b) toprovide suitable tools during an impending crisis, (c)to provide a basis for emergency plans.     

Fractal-statistical analysis of grain-size distributions of debris-flow deposits and its geological implications

Breakage models and particle analyses have been widely used as tools for describing and interpreting various deposits and providing parameters for assessing the particle-size distribution of the deposits. Debris flows can be seen as a two-phase rheological fluid with a clay-fluid composition, and debris-flow deposits comprise mud, silt, sand, and boulders, with grain sizes ranging from less than one μm to more than several meters. As a consequence, according to fractal theory, the particles in debris-flow deposits have self-similarity in geometrical shape and scale invariance in size. In this paper, the fractal dimensions of particles in various debris-flow deposits are calculated and corresponding fractal features are determined based on fractal-statistical theory. The aims of the study are: to provide a quantitative grain parameter that reflects both the grain composition and grain-size distribution in debris-flow deposits; to compare the fractal dimensions of grains in different types of debris-flow deposits and the degree of self-organization of debris flows; as well as to discuss the geological implications of fractal dimensions and fractal features of particles in debris-flow deposits.     

Rainfall duration and debris-flow initiated studies for real-time monitoring

A rainfall-induced debris flow warning is implemented employing real-time rain gauge data. The pre-warning for the time of landslide triggering derives the threshold or critical rainfall from historical events involving regional rainfall patterns and geological conditions. In cases of debris flow, the time taken cumulative runoff, to yield abundant water for debris triggering, is an important index that needs monitoring. In gathered historical cases, rainfall time history data from the nearest rain gauge stations to debris-flow sites connected to debris flow are used to define relationships between the rainfall intensity and duration. The effects by which the regional rainfall patterns (antecedent rainfall, duration, intensity, cumulative rainfall) and geological settings combine together to trigger a debris-flow are analyzed for real-time monitoring. The analyses focused on 61 historical hazard events with the timing of debris flow initiation and rainfall duration to burst debris-flow characteristics recorded. A combination of averaged rainfall intensity and duration is a more practical index for debris-flow monitoring than critical or threshold rainfall intensity. Because, the outburst timing of debris flows correlates closely to the peak hourly rainfall and the forecasting of peak hourly rainfall reached in a meteorological event could be a valuable index for real-time debris-flow warning.     

泥石流灾害的物源控制与高性能减灾

传统的观点认为山区泥石流灾害的形成主要取决于降水,其产汇流运动的过程是可采用水文过程模拟的物理过程。基于目前泥石流灾害集中分布于地震带和干旱河谷的现象以及现有的泥石流形成与防治研究基础,我们发现在人类居住与活动的山区,其坡度和降水极易满足泥石流灾害的形成条件,因此物源控制着泥石流灾害的孕育、形成和演化,主宰了灾害性泥石流的过程。物源的动态变化改变了泥石流发育的难易程度,主导了泥石流的规模和频率变化。泥石流物源在内外动力作用下经历松散化或密实化两个不同的演化过程,不同密度的土体通过剪缩或剪胀形成不同规模、频率与性质的泥石流。此外物源也控制了泥石流的规模放大过程。实践证明基于物源控制理论的区域预测、分级多指标预警和工程调控技术是科学有效的。因此,灾害性泥石流是一个地质作用主导的地质过程,该过程的特征描述需要更多地考虑基于地质环境条件的经验模型,且高效能的灾害预测预警与调控需要基于物源控制的机理和过程而进行。     

黄山第四纪泥砾沉积物分形结构特征与成因机制分析

黄山第四纪泥砾沉积物粒度组成的分维值介于２７０８～２７３５之间,非常接近古泥石流堆积物粒度组成的典型分维值２７５．结合沉积特征,表明该沉积物属第四纪间冰缘环境下的稀性泥石流沉积,其形成过程与季风型冰缘环境有关     

Debris-flow susceptibility of upland catchments

Over the last three decades, many regional studies in mountain ranges under temperate climate revealed that it is possible to discriminate debris-flow and fluvial fans from morphometric indicators measured at the scale of the catchment and the fan itself. The most commonly used indicators are the Melton index (R), a normalized index of the gravitational energy of the catchment, and the fan slope (S). A wide range of thresholds have been proposed for discriminating purpose, but these are generally based on a small population of catchments and may be highly influenced by ambiguous fans included in the data set. A database of 620 upland catchments from several mountain ranges under temperate climate was compiled from the literature to propose robust discriminant morphometric thresholds for debris-flow versus fluvial responses. Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and logistic regression (LR) were performed using the whole data set, and a leave-one-out cross-validation was used to evaluate performances of the models. Sensitivity and specificity scores obtained for LDA and LR were 0.96 and 0.73, and 0.95 and 0.75, respectively. It is also shown that the channel slope above which debris-flow is observed decreases with the gravitational energy of the catchment. Limitations of the morphometric discrimination are discussed.     

云南省东川市深沟泥石流堆积动态模拟及减灾效益评估

笔者以云南省东川市深沟泥石流为研究对象，根据质量守恒和动量守恒原理，建立了泥石流堆积过程数学模型，运用数值方法的有限差分原理求解，并针对泥石流运动的实际特征，模拟其堆积动态过程。以此结果为基础，分析评价了深沟泥石流灾害的危险范围和程度，结合分类统计评价危险区的各类资产价值，分析评估了在2％频率条件下可能造成的灾害损失，对比防灾工程措施及其造价进行效益分析，提出了有关对策建议。     

Assessing debris flow hazards associated with slow moving landslides: methodology and numerical analyses

Clayey slow-moving landslides are characterized by their capability to suddenly change behaviour and release debris-flows. Due to their sediment volume and their high mobility, they are far more dangerous than those resulting from continuous erosive processes and associated potential high hazard magnitude on alluvial fans. A case of transformation from earthflow to debris-flow is presented. An approach combining geomorphology, geotechnics, rheology and numerical analysis is adopted. Results show a very good agreement between the yield stress values measured by laboratory tests, in the field according to the morphology of the levees, and by back-analyses using the debris-flow modelling code, Bing. The runout distances and the deposit thickness in the depositional area are also well reproduced. This allows proposing debris-flow risk scenarios. Results show that clayey earthflows can transform under 5-years return period rainfall conditions into 1 km runout debris-flows of volumes ranging between 2,000 to 5,000 m³.