Thresholds,mode switching,and emergent equilibrium in geomorphic systems

Landform and landscape evolution may be convergent, whereby initial differences and irregularities are (on average) reduced and smoothed, or divergent, with increasing variation and irregularity. Convergent and divergent evolution are directly related to dynamical (in)stability. Unstable interactions among geomorphic system components tend to dominate in earlier stages of development, while stable limits often become dominant in later stages. This results in mode switching, from unstable, divergent to stable, convergent development. Divergent‐to‐convergent mode switches emerge from a common structure in many geomorphic systems: mutually reinforcing or competitive interrelationships among system components, and negative self‐effects limiting individual components. When the interactions between components are dominant, divergent evolution occurs. As threshold limits to divergent development are approached, self‐limiting effects become more important, triggering a switch to convergence. The mode shift is an emergent phenomenon, arising from basic principles of threshold modulation and gradient selection. As an example, the relationships among flow concentration, erosive force, and channel incision in fluvial systems are examined in the context of mode switching and thresholds. The commonly observed divergence in channel growth and fluvial dissection and network development, eventually transitioning to a stable, convergent configuration, is an emergent outcome of gradient selection and threshold modification, and does not imply any goal functions of balancing mass fluxes or limiting change. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stormy geomorphology: an introduction to the Special Issue

The degree to which the climate change signal can be seen in the increasing frequency and/or magnitude of extreme events forms a key part of the global environmental change agenda. Geomorphology engages with this debate through extending the instrumental record with palaeogeomorphological research; studying resilience and recovery of geomorphic systems under extreme disturbance; documenting the mediation by catchment organisation of transport processes during extreme events; applying new monitoring methods to better understand process‐response systems; and illustrating how process, experimental and modelling insights can be used to define the buffering of geomorphic systems and human assets from the effects of extremes, providing practical outcomes for practitioners. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Identifying regional dust transport pathways: ­application of kinematic trajectory modelling to a trans‐Tasman case

A kinematic trajectory model is used to investigate potential pathways of dust transport from Australia to New Zealand. Historically, these have been assumed to follow rather direct west–east trajectories spanning 2 to 3 days, often resulting in red snow events in the Southern Alps of New Zealand. However, results from the present study which examined the route taken by air parcels originating in southern Australia during dust storms on 24 and 25 May 1994, indicate that trans‐Tasman dust transport trajectories are more diverse than previously thought, and display considerable variation during single events. These more divergent pathways tie in more closely with aeolian dust sedimentation patterns identified by ocean coring in the Tasman Sea, and may account for the deposition of Australian dust on sub‐Antarctic islands located well south of the Australian continent. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The morphological response of foredunes at a breached barrier system to winter 2013/2014 storms on the southwest coast of Ireland

The level of storminess in Ireland during the winter of 2013/2014 was exceptional, the effects of which cost the Irish state in excess of €260 million in infrastructure repair and insurance claims. In Ireland, a lack of coastal process data from monitoring programmes means that the response of protective barrier coasts to such events remains largely un‐investigated. This study addresses this issue through an examination of the geomorphic impacts of recent storms, including those that occurred during the winter 2013/2014, on a breached barrier on the southwest coast of Ireland. Data from a two‐year terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) monitoring campaign shows that the winter 2013/2014 events caused a major (>50 m) dune recession at Rossbehy, County Kerry. Results from a simple linear regression analysis indicate storm duration plays an important role in the removal of foredunes at the study site. Given the fact that the frequency of intense storms in the vicinity of Ireland is forecast to increase within the next century, a scientific understanding of barrier response to such events is critical to inform sound management practices. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment on variability of extreme climate events for the Upper Thames River basin in Canada

Climate change may affect magnitude and frequency of regional extreme events with possibility of serious impacts on the existing infrastructure systems. This study investigates how the current spatial and temporal variations of extreme events are affected by climate change in the Upper Thames River basin, Ontario, Canada. A weather generator model is implemented to obtain daily time series of three climate variables for two future climate scenarios. The daily time series are disaggregated into hourly to capture characteristics of intense and rapidly changing storms. The maximum annual precipitation events for five short durations, 6‐, 12‐, 24‐, 48‐, and 72‐h durations, at each station are extracted from the generated hourly data. The frequency and seasonality analyses are conducted to investigate the temporal and spatial variability of extreme precipitation events corresponding to each duration. In addition, this study investigates the impacts of increase in temperature using reliability, resilience, and vulnerability. The results indicate that the extreme precipitation events under climate change will occur earlier than in the past. In addition, episodes of extremely high temperature may last longer up to 19·7% than under the no‐change climate scenario. This study points out that the revision of the design storms (e.g. 100‐ or 250‐year return period) is warranted for the west and the south east region of the basin. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The role of chronic and episodic disturbances on channel–hillslope coupling: the persistence and legacy of extreme floods

Landscape form represents the cumulative effects of de‐stabilizing events relative to recovery processes. Most geomorphic research has focused on the role of episodic rare events on landscape form with less attention paid to the role and persistence of chronic inputs. To better establish the interplay between chronic and episodic extreme events at regional scales, we used aerial photography and post‐flood sediment sampling to assess stream and hillslope response and recovery to a 100–300 yr. flood caused by Tropical Storm Irene in New England. Within a 14 000 km² study area, analysis of aerial photographs indicated that the storm initiated (n = 534) and reactivated (n = 460) a large number of landslides. These landslides dramatically increased overall estimates of regional erosion rates (from 0.0023 mm/yr. without Irene to 0.0072 mm/yr. with Irene). Similarly, Irene‐generated LWD inputs of 0.25–0.5 trees/km exceeded annual background rates in a single event, and these concentrated inputs (10¹–10² of trees/landslide) are likely to result in large jams and snags that are particularly persistent and geomorphically effective. Finally, we found that landslide scars continue to provide elevated sediment inputs years after the event, as evidenced by sustained higher suspended sediment concentrations in streams with Irene‐generated landslides. Overall, our results indicate that infrequent, high‐magnitude events have a more important geomorphic role in tectonically stable, more moderate‐relief systems than has been previously recognized. Understanding the role of these events has particular relevance in regions such as New England, where the frequency and magnitude of extreme storms is expected to increase. Further, these effects may force reconsideration of conservation and restoration targets (for example in channel form and large wood loading and distribution) in fluvial systems. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geomorphic effectiveness: a linear concept in a non‐linear world

Geomorphic effectiveness has been an influential concept in geomorphology since its introduction by Reds Wolman and John Miller in 1960. It provided a much needed framework to assess the significance of an event by comparing event magnitude to the resultant geomorphic effects. Initially, this concept was applied primarily in river channels, under the linear assumption that geomorphic responses to similarly sized flood events will be consistent. Numerous authors have since attempted to quantify a direct, proportional relationship between event magnitude and different forms of geomorphic response in a variety of geomorphic settings. In doing so, these investigations applied an array of metrics that were difficult to compare across different spatiotemporal scales, and physiographic and geomorphic environments. Critically, the emergence of other geomorphic concepts such as sensitivity, connectivity, thresholds, and recovery has shown that relationships between causes (events) and geomorphic effects (responses) are often complex and non‐linear. This paper disentangles the complex historical development of the geomorphic effectiveness concept and reviews the utility of various metrics for quantifying effectiveness. We propose that total energy (joules) is the most appropriate metric to use for quantifying the magnitude of disturbance events (cause) and volumetric sediment flux associated with landform modification is the most appropriate metric for quantifying geomorphic effects. While both metrics are difficult to quantify, they are the only ones which facilitate comparison across a range of spatiotemporal scales (comparability) in a variety of geomorphic environments (flexibility). The geomorphic effectiveness concept can continue to be useful provided that geomorphologists use flexible and comparable metrics. Today, geomorphologists are better prepared to consider the influence of non‐linear processes on determinations of geomorphic effectiveness, allowing investigators to not only determine if a disturbance event was effective but also to explain why or why not. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The geomorphic cell: a basis for studying connectivity

Any attempt to measure connectivity within a system requires a set of entities to be defined that permit the connectivity among them to be quantified. Here we propose the geomorphic cell as such an entity. We provide a means to identify these cells, define a terminology for describing cell state, and identify the pathways of connections (connecteins) to and from cells. We conceptualize the geomorphic cell as being a three‐dimensional body of the geomorphosphere, which is delimited from neighbouring cells and neighbouring spheres by different types of boundary. Vertically, the upper boundary of a geomorphic cell is defined by the atmosphere, while the lower boundary is generally formed by the bedrock layer of the lithosphere. Laterally, geomorphic cells are delimited from neighbouring cells with a change in environmental characteristics that determine hydro‐geomorphic boundary conditions (e.g. geology, soils, topography and/or vegetation). Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Relative scales of time and effectiveness of climate in watershed geomorphology

Peak rainfalls and peak runoff rates per unit area are comparable over a worldwide spectrum of climates. However, while the magnitude of the external contribution of energy or force in diverse regions is similar, the impact on the landscape varies markedly between regions. Absolute magnitudes of climatic events and absolute time intervals between such events do not provide satisfactory measures of the geomorphic effectiveness of events of different magnitudes and recurrence intervals. Although geomorphic processes are driven by complex sets of interrelated climatic, topographic, lithologic, and biologic factors, the work done by individual extreme events can be scaled as a ratio to mean annual erosion and the effectiveness of such events in forming landscape features can be related to the rate of recovery of channel form or mass wasting scars following alteration by the extreme event. Thus, a time scale for effectiveness may relate the recurrence interval of an event to the time required for a landform to recover the form existing prior to the event. River channels in temperate regions widened by floods of recurrence intervals from 50 to more than 200 years may regain their original width in matters of months or years. In semi-arid regions, recovery of channel form depends not only upon flows but upon climatic determinants of the growth of bottomland vegetation resulting in variable rates of recovery, on the order of decades, depending upon coincidence of average flows and strengthened vegetation. In truly arid regions the absence of vegetation and flow precludes recovery and the width of channels increases in drainage areas up to 100 km² but remains relatively constant at larger drainage areas. Area as well as time controls the effectiveness of specific events inasmuch as the likelihood of simultaneous peak discharges or rainfalls and large areas is less, particularly in arid regions where events spanning areas of more than several thousand km² are extremely rare if experienced at all. To some extent a decrease in area in a humid region is comparable with a regional change from humid toward more arid climate reflected in the increase in importance of episodic as contrasted with more continuous processes. Exceedingly rare floods of extreme magnitudes, estimated recurrence intervals of 500 years or longer, may exceed thresholds of competence otherwise unattainable in the ‘normal’ record resulting in ‘irreparable’ transformations of valley landforms. Denudation of hillslopes by mass wasting during relatively rare events can also be related to mean rates of denudation and to recovery of hillslope surfaces after scarring by different kinds of landslides. Measured recovery times described in the literature vary from less than a decade for some tropical regions to decades or more in temperate regions. Recurrence intervals of high magnitude storms which trigger mass wasting range from 1 to 2 years in some tropical areas, to 3 or 4 per hundred years in some areas of seasonal rainfall and to 100 or more years in some temperate regions. The effectiveness of climatic events on both hillslopes and rivers is not separable from gradient, lithology or other variables which control both thresholds of activity and recovery rate.     

Stormy geomorphology: geomorphic contributions in an age of climate extremes

The increasing frequency and/or severity of extreme climate events are becoming increasingly apparent over multi‐decadal timescales at the global scale, albeit with relatively low scientific confidence. At the regional scale, scientific confidence in the future trends of extreme event likelihood is stronger, although the trends are spatially variable. Confidence in these extreme climate risks is muddied by the confounding effects of internal landscape system dynamics and external forcing factors such as changes in land use and river and coastal engineering. Geomorphology is a critical discipline in disentangling climate change impacts from other controlling factors, thereby contributing to debates over societal adaptation to extreme events. We review four main geomorphic contributions to flood and storm science. First, we show how palaeogeomorphological and current process studies can extend the historical flood record while also unraveling the complex interactions between internal geomorphic dynamics, human impacts and changes in climate regimes. A key outcome will be improved quantification of flood probabilities and the hazard dimension of flood risk. Second, we present evidence showing how antecedent geomorphological and climate parameters can alter the risk and magnitude of landscape change caused by extreme events. Third, we show that geomorphic processes can both mediate and increase the geomorphological impacts of extreme events, influencing societal risk. Fourthly, we show the potential of managing flood and storm risk through the geomorphic system, both near‐term (next 50 years) and longer‐term. We recommend that key methods of managing flooding and erosion will be more effective if risk assessments include palaeodata, if geomorphological science is used to underpin nature‐based management approaches, and if land‐use management addresses changes in geomorphic process regimes that extreme events can trigger. We argue that adopting geomorphologically‐grounded adaptation strategies will enable society to develop more resilient, less vulnerable socio‐geomorphological systems fit for an age of climate extremes. © 2016 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Tipping points in Texas rivers

Anticipating geomorphic tipping points requires that we learn from the past. Major geomorphic changes in coastal plain rivers of Texas resulting in river metamorphosis or regime shifts were identified and the major driving factors determined. Eleven such transformations – possible tipping points – were identified from contemporary observations, historical records, and Quaternary reconstructions. Two of the tipping points (between general aggrading and degrading valley states) are associated with reversals in a fundamental system control (sea‐level). One (stable or aggrading versus degrading channels) is associated with an abrupt change in sediment supply due to dam construction, and two others (changes from meandering to anastomosing channel patterns, and different anastomosis styles) are similarly related to changes in sediment supply and/or transport capacity, but with additional elements of historical contingency. Three tipping points are related to avulsions. One, from a regime dominated by re‐occupation of former channels to one dominated by progradation into flood basins, is driven by progressive long‐term filling of incised valleys. Another, nodal avulsions, is triggered by disturbances associated with tectonic uplift or listric faults. The third, avulsions and related valley metamorphosis in unfilled incised valleys, is due to fundamental dynamical instabilities within the fluvial system. This synthesis and analysis suggests that geomorphic tipping points are sometimes associated with general extrinsic or intrinsic (to the fluvial system) environmental change, independent of any disturbances or instabilities. Others are associated with natural (e.g. tectonic) or human (dams) disturbances, and still others with intrinsic geomorphic instabilities. This suggests future tipping points will be equally diverse with respect to their drivers and dynamics. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Statistics of isolated and complex geomagnetic storms based on the APEV database for cycle 23 of solar activity

The development of geomagnetic storms is mainly controlled by external heliospheric factors, which in turn depend on the conditions on the Sun. Magnetospheric disturbances can be isolated, repeated, multiple, or turbulent, depending on these conditions. Most geomagnetic storms develop complexly and are characterized by the existence of one or several side extrema before or after the main one. This is mainly related to the superposition of individual disturbances that follow immediately one after another from the Sun into the heliosphere or to the internal structure and dynamics of disturbances in the corona. The geomagnetic storms from the APEV extensive database for cycle 23 of solar activity, which were combined into 227 events, were analyzed in order to reveal the statistics based on single and multiple magnetospheric disturbances. The results are presented as histograms, graphs, tables, and empirical formulas for the total number of intensifications in all events and depending on different geomagnetic storm development phases, amplitude, and duration.     

Conditions for feedbacks between geomorphic and vegetation dynamics on lateral moraine slopes: a biogeomorphic feedback window

Little Ice Age lateral moraines represent one of the most important sediment storages and dynamic areas in glacier forelands. Following glacier retreat, simultaneous paraglacial adjustment and vegetation succession affect the moraine slopes. Geomorphic processes (e.g. debris flows, interrill erosion, gullying, solifluction) disturb and limit vegetation development, while increasing vegetation cover decreases geomorphic activity. Thus, feedbacks between geomorphic and vegetation dynamics strongly control moraine slope development. However, the conditions under which these biogeomorphic feedbacks can occur are insufficiently understood and major knowledge gaps remain. This study determines feedback conditions through the analysis of geomorphic and vegetation data from permanent plots in the Turtmann glacier foreland, Switzerland. Results from multivariate statistical analysis (i) confirm that Dryas octopetala L. is an alpine ecosystem engineer species which influences geomorphic processes on lateral moraines and thereby controls ecosystem structure and function, and (ii) demonstrate that biogeomorphic feedbacks can occur once geomorphic activity sufficiently decreases for D. octopetala to establish and cross a cover threshold. In the subsequent ecosystem engineering process, the dominant geomorphic processes change from flow and slide to bound solifluction. Increasing slope stabilization induces a decline in biogeomorphic feedbacks and the suppression of D. octopetala by shrubs. We conceptualize this relationship between process magnitude, frequency and species resilience and resistance to disturbances in a ‘biogeomorphic feedback window’ concept. Our approach enhances the understanding of feedbacks between geomorphic and alpine vegetation dynamics on lateral moraine slopes and highlights the importance of integrating geomorphic and ecological approaches for biogeomorphic research. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Beach erosion and recovery during consecutive storms at a steep‐sloping,meso‐tidal beach

This study analyses beach morphological change during six consecutive storms acting on the meso‐tidal Faro Beach (south Portugal) between 15 December 2009 and 7 January 2010. Morphological change of the sub‐aerial beach profile was monitored through frequent topographic surveys across 11 transects. Measurements of the surf/swash zone dimensions, nearshore bar dynamics, and wave run‐up were extracted from time averaged and timestack coastal images, and wave and tidal data were obtained from offshore stations. All the information combined suggests that during consecutive storm events, the antecedent morphological state can initially be the dominant controlling factor of beach response; while the hydrodynamic forcing, and especially the tide and surge levels, become more important during the later stages of a storm period. The dataset also reveals the dynamic nature of steep‐sloping beaches, since sub‐aerial beach volume reductions up to 30 m³/m were followed by intertidal area recovery (–2 < z < 3 m) with rates reaching ~10 m³/m. However, the observed cumulative dune erosion and profile pivoting imply that storms, even of regular intensity, can have a dramatic impact when they occur in groups. Nearshore bars seemed to respond to temporal scales more related to storm sequences than to individual events. The formation of a prominent crescentic offshore bar at ~200 m from the shoreline appeared to reverse the previous offshore migration trend of the inner bar, which was gradually shifted close to the seaward swash zone boundary. The partially understood nearshore bar processes appeared to be critical for storm wave attenuation in the surf zone; and were considered mainly responsible for the poor interpretation of the observed beach behaviour on the grounds of standard, non‐dimensional, morphological parameters. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Contribution of intercepted subsurface flow to road runoff and sediment transport in a logging‐disturbed tropical catchment

Hydrological and sediment fluxes were monitored for a 1 yr period in a tropical headwater catchment where a 3 yr old logging road caused substantial Hortonian overland flow (HOF) and intercepted subsurface flow (ISSF). On a 51·5 m road section, ISSF became an increasingly important component of total road runoff, up to more than 90% for large storms. The proportion of ISSF contributed by road cuts along more or less planar slopes compared with ISSF from a zero‐order basin (convergent slopes) truncated by the road declined with increasing rainfall. During the monitored storms that generated ISSF along the road, on average, 28% of sediment export and 79% of runoff from the road section were directly attributable to ISSF. Estimates of total sediment export from the road surface (170 t ha^?1 yr^?1) and suspended sediment export from the logging‐disturbed catchment (4 t ha^?1 yr^?1) were exceptionally high despite 3 yr of recovery. ISSF caused not only additional road‐generated sediment export, but also exacerbated HOF‐driven erosion by creating a poor foundation for vegetation recovery on the road surface. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of phenology and meteorological disturbance on litter rainfall interception for a Pinus elliottii stand in the Southeastern United States

Litter layers develop across a diverse array of vegetated ecosystems and undergo significant temporal compositional changes due to canopy phenological phases and disturbances. Past research on temporal dynamics of litter interception has focused primarily on litter thickness and leaf fall, yet forest phenophases can change many more litter attributes (e.g., woody debris, bark shedding, and release of reproductive materials). In this study, weekly changes in litter composition over 1 year were used to estimate litter water storage dynamics and model event‐based litter interception. Litter interception substantially reduced throughfall (6–43%), and litter water storage capacity ranged from 1 to 3 mm, peaking when megastrobili release and liana leaf senescence occurred simultaneously during fall 2015. Tropical storm disturbances occurred during the sampling period, allowing evaluation of how meteorological disturbances altered litter interception. High wind speeds and intense rainfall from 2 tropical storms increased litter interception by introducing new woody debris, which, in this study, stored more water than the pre‐existing woody debris. After 2 extreme weather events, a third (Hurricane Hermine) did not increase woody debris (or litter interception), suggesting that the canopy pool of branches susceptible to breakage had been largely depleted. Needle and bark shedding had minor effects on litter interception. Results suggest that the release of reproductive materials and meteorological disturbances appear to be the major compositional drivers of litter interception beyond their obvious contribution to litter thickness.     

The job of the river

Earth scientists have traditionally conceptualized rivers and streams as geomorphic machines, whose role is to transfer sediment and to sculpt the landscape. Steady‐state relationships between sediment supply and transport capacity have traditionally been considered normative in fluvial systems. Rivers are hydrological entities, however, whose function is to redistribute excess moisture on land. The geomorphic work of the river – erosion, transport, deposition, etc. – is a byproduct of the hydrological job of the river. There is therefore no reason to expect any particular relationship between sediment supply and transport capacity to develop as a normative condition in fluvial systems. The apparent steady‐state equilibrium slope adjustments of rivers are a byproduct of four basic phenomena: (1) hydraulic selection, which favors channels and branching networks over other flux patterns; (2) water flows along the available path of least resistance; (3) energy dissipation; and (4) finite relaxation times. Recognizing converging trends of stream power or slope and sediment supply as common (but far from inevitable) side effects rather than self‐regulation has important implications for interpreting and predicting fluvial systems, and for river management and restoration. Such trends are variable, transient, contingent, and far from universal. Where they occur, they are an emergent byproduct of fundamental physical mechanisms, not a goal function or attractor state. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Delayed response model for bankfull discharge predictions in the Yellow River

Delayed response means that channels cannot achieve a new equilibrium state immediately following disruption;the channel requires a response time or relaxation time to reach equilibrium.It follows that the morphological state of fluvial system represents the cumulative effects of all previous disturbances and environmental conditions.A unique feature of the delayed response model for bankfull discharge is that the model is capable of representing the cumulative effects of all previous flow conditions when applied to predict the path/trajectories of bankfull discharge in response to altered flow regimes.In this paper,the delayed response model was modified by readjusting the weight for the initial boundary conditions and introducing a variableβwith respect to time.The modified model was then applied to the bankfull discharge calculations for three selected river reaches of the Yellow River,with each reach having different geomorphic settings and constraints. Results indicated that the modified model can predict accurately the bankfull discharge variation in response to changes in flow discharge and sediment load conditions that have been dramatically altered in the past.Results also demonstrated the strong dependence of current bankfull discharge on the previous years’ flow conditions,with the relaxation time varied from 2 to 14 years,meaning that the bankfull discharge was not only affected by the flow discharge and sediment load in the current year,but also by those in previous 1 to 13 years.Furthermore,the relaxation time of bankfull discharge adjustment was inversely proportional to the long-term average suspended sediment concentrations,and this may be explained by fact that high sediment concentrations may have a high potential to perform geomorphic work and there is more sediment readily available to shape the channel boundary and geometry.     

Transformation of parabolic dunes into mobile barchans triggered by environmental change and anthropogenic disturbance

Parabolic dunes are widely distributed on coasts and margins of deserts and steppes where ecosystems are vulnerable and sensitive to environmental changes and human disturbances. Some studies have indicated that vegetated parabolic dunes can be activated into highly mobile barchan dunes and the catastrophic shift of eco‐geomorphic systems is detrimental to land management and social‐economic development; however, no detailed study has clarified the physical processes and eco‐geomorphic interactions that control the stability of a parabolic dune and its resistance to unfavorable environmental changes. This study utilizes the Extended‐DECAL (Discrete Eco‐geomorphic Aeolian Landscapes) model, parameterized by field measurements of dune topography and vegetation characteristics combined with remote sensing, to explore how increases in drought stress, wind strength, and grazing stress may lead to the activation of stabilizing parabolic dunes into highly mobile barchans. The modeling results suggest that the mobility of an initial parabolic dune at the onset of a perturbation determines the capacity of a system to absorb environmental change, and a slight increase in vegetation cover of an initial parabolic dune can increase the activation threshold significantly. The characteristics of four eco‐geomorphic interaction zones control the processes and resulting morphologies of the transformations. A higher deposition tolerance of vegetation increases the activation threshold of the dune transformation under both a negative climatic impact and an increased sand transport rate, whereas the erosion tolerance of vegetation influences the patterns of resulting barchans (a single barchan versus multiple barchans). The change in the characteristics of eco‐geomorphic interaction zones may indirectly reflect the dune stability and predict an ongoing transformation, whilst the activation angle may be potentially used as a proxy of environmental stresses. In contrast to the natural environmental changes that tend to affect relatively weak and young plants, grazing stress can exert a broader impact on any plant indistinctively. A small increase in grazing stress just above the activation threshold can accelerate dune activation significantly. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

NO冷却率在连续磁暴中对热层密度的影响

基于CHAMP卫星加速度计数据,对2002年4月和2004年11月两个连续磁暴事件期间400 km高度热层大气密度时空变化特征进行了分析,结果表明,地磁扰动相近的连续磁暴发生时,热层密度对第一个磁暴的响应幅度明显大于后续磁暴;磁暴间歇期有时会出现密度低值;磁暴恢复相,热层密度先于ap指数快速恢复至暴前水平,甚至更低;热层大气经验模式NRLMSISE00的预测结果中没有包含这些现象.利用TIMED卫星SABER辐射计数据进一步分析同时段100~155 km高度NO冷却率的变化特点,NO冷却率在暴时的增大滞后热层密度2~6 h;磁暴恢复相,NO冷却率保持在较高水平,弛豫时间远大于热层密度.暴时增强的NO冷却率及其缓慢的恢复是导致热层密度响应幅度变小的原因,间歇期是否出现热层密度异常低值也与NO冷却率的增幅有关.