Fourteen-year series of vertical ozone distribution over Arosa,Switzerland, from Umkehr measurements

Summary Observations of the vertical ozone distribution over Arosa, Switzerland, have been carried out routinely since 1956 (with one two-year gap). Long-term trends of ozone concentration at different levels indicated by this series are discussed in the light of the results obtained from five years of parallel measurements with two Dobson spectrophotometers. Further substantiation of the suggested correlation between ozone concentration in the upper stratosphere and solar activity (with a two- to three-year lag of ozone against sun-spot numbers) is needed because no full agreement was obtained from the two instruments with respect to the secular variation at those top levels.     

Long-term changes (1980–2003) in total ozone time series over Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes

Long-term changes in total ozone time series for Arosa, Belsk, Boulder and Sapporo stations are examined. For each station we analyze time series of the following statistical characteristics of the distribution of daily ozone data: seasonal mean, standard deviation, maximum and minimum of total daily ozone values for all seasons. The iterative statistical model is proposed to estimate trends and long-term changes in the statistical distribution of the daily total ozone data. The trends are calculated for the period 1980–2003. We observe lessening of negative trends in the seasonal means as compared to those calculated by WMO for 1980–2000. We discuss a possibility of a change of the distribution shape of ozone daily data using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and comparing trend values in the seasonal mean, standard deviation, maximum and minimum time series for the selected stations and seasons. The distribution shift toward lower values without a change in the distribution shape is suggested with the following exceptions: the spreading of the distribution toward lower values for Belsk during winter and no decisive result for Sapporo and Boulder in summer.     

Relationship of atmospheric ozone profiles to solar magnetic activity

The observed relationship between atmospheric vorticity variations and solar magnetic sector boundary passages is examined for a possible connection via ionization changes affecting ozone distributions. A superposed epoch analysis was performed on Umkehr distributions for 18 years from Arosa, Switzerland, with use of more than 500 solar sector boundary passages as keyday zero. No significant responses are observed in any Umkehr level or in total observed ozone amounts. Further analyses on shorter records for Belsk, Poland, and Hohenpeissenberg, West Germany, corroborate these results. Another analysis for Arosa with about 100 type IV solar flares as keyday zero also shows no definitive trend. It is concluded that ozone distribution changes cannot be the primary causative mechanism for vorticity variations.Journal Paper No. J-8838 of the Iowa Agriculture and Home Economics Experiment Station, Ames, Iowa. Project No. 1852.     

Six years of regular ozone soundings over Switzerland

Summary The mean vertical ozone distribution as a function of season is computed from almost 6 years of regular soundings (three times per week) over Switzerland. By comparing the concurrent mean values of the total amount with the 35-year average at Arosa, and by using the correlation between ozone concentration at different levels with the total amount, adjusted values for the seasonal variation of the vertical ozone distribution are obtained which are thought to give a better representation of the long-term climatological mean. The data show a prominent biennial variation of the ozone content around the level of the maximum concentration which does not, however, show up in the total amount because it is missing in the lower stratosphere.     

The global distribution of long-term total ozone variations during the period 1957–1975

Total ozone observations in the international network have been used as a basis for the analysis of the mean monthly ozone distribution over the globe for the period 1957–75. It has been found that during the period 1961–70 the total ozone amount increased in the Northern Hemisphere by about 12 percent and that this increase seems to be significant at all latitudes. Although the data were sparse for the Southern Hemisphere, there did not appear to be any significant ozone changes during the 10 year period. Relatively large geographic variations were found in the ozone trends and it is suggested that these variations are related to large scale changes in the atmospheric circular pattern.     

Trends in total ozone and the effect of the equatorial zonal wind QBO

Trends in total column ozone have been analyzed in terms of the equatorial zonal wind. We used zonal monthly mean total ozone from Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and monthly mean zonal wind in the equatorial stratosphere at 30 hPa to define the phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Total column ozone trends have been assessed during the period 1979–2004, for both Hemispheres, and for each month, under three conditions considering, all the ozone dataset, ozone values during easterly phase and ozone values during westerly phase of the QBO. When the whole dataset is considered, negative trends are observed. From low to midlatitudes a zonal pattern is noticed with increasing negative values toward higher latitudes. When the data is filtered according to the QBO phase, statistically significant positive trends appear in the westerly case during January to May at low latitudes .The trend pattern in the case of the easterly phase presents more negative values.     

Evidence of a 50-year increase in tropospheric ozone in Upper Bavaria

In a series of ozone-sonde soundings at the Hohenpeißenberg observatory, starting in 1967, the most striking features are increases of \sim2.2% per year in all tropospheric heights up to 8 km during the past 24 years. These facts have recently been published and discussed by several authors. In this paper, we present some evidence for the increase of tropospheric ozone concentrations during the past 50 years 1940–1990 in the territory of the northern edge of the Bavarian Alps, including the Hohenpeißenberg data. In December 1940 and August 1942, probably the first exact wet-chemical vertical soundings of ozone up to 9 km height were made by an aircraft in the region mentioned. These results were published in the earlier literature. We have converted the results of the flights on 4 days in December 1940 and on 6 days in August 1942 to modern units and have compared them with the Hohenpeißenberg ozone-sonde data of the December and August months. We also compared the data at the ground with the August results of Paris-Montsouris 1886-1898. Our results show an increase of ozone concentration at all tropospheric heights in Upper Bavaria during the past 50 years, compared with the Montsouris data in August during the past 105 years. In the recently published papers, the increases since 1967 were approximated linearly.Our results, extended to the past, show non-linear trends, with steeper increases since 1975-1979. Possible reasons for these findings are discussed. Quite recently (in case of the December months since 1986/87, the August months since 1990), the ozone mixing ratios at and above Hohenpeißenberg seem to have decreased.     

Ozone distribution over Mediterranean,central and southeast Europe during the International Quiet Sun Year (1964–1965)

Summary Ozone observations made during 1964 and 1965 at nine Mediterranean, central and southeast European stations (latitudes 38–52°N, longitudes 9–23°E) reveal patterns of seasonal and shorter time-variations in total ozone as well as in vertical ozone distribution. During the winter-spring season, a significant increase (20%) of ozone occurs essentially simultaneously with the spring stratospheric warming, and is noticed at all stations.—Autocorrelation coefficients show that the total ozone on any day is strongly related to the total ozone of the preceding four days in summer or one or two days in winter-spring or autumn. Changes of total ozone in southeast Europe correlate closely with those in Mediterranean Europe, and less closely with those from north central Europe.—Power spectrum analysis detects the dependence of ozone changes on processes with periods longer than 6–8 days, and indicates a significant oscillation with a period of 14–15 days, perhaps a result of the direct influence of lower stratospheric circumhemispheric circulation. — Reliable vertical ozone soundings were not available from all stations. The mean vertical profiles at Arosa, Switzerland (47°N) and Belsk, Poland (51°) are very similar. More than 60% of the variability of the total ozone is contributed by changes in ozone concentration between 10 and 24 km; less than 10% is due to variations above 33 km. Changes in ozone partial pressure at different altitudes, and relationships of those changes to total ozone, indicates that a mean vertical ozone distribution may be described adequately by considering the ozone changes in four layers: a) the troposphere, b) the lower stratosphere up to 24 km, c) a transition layer from 24 km to a variable upper border at 33–37 km, and d) the layer above 33–37 km.Part of this paper was presented at the Ozone Seminar in Potsdam, Germany, 27 September 1966.     

Maximum entropy spectral analysis of total ozone

Total ozone data series for 1957–82 at ten locations were subjected to Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis. Besides the annual, semi-annual, and quasi-biennial oscillations, peaks were noticed at 3.5–4, 6–7, and 10–11 years. For Arosa, Switzerland, for a longer period (1932–71), an additional peak was indicated at about 16 years.     

Influence of stratospheric ozone changes on long-term trends in the meso- and lower thermosphere

As predicted by model calculations, long-term changes in the stratospheric ozone content should influence trends in the meso- and thermosphere also. These predictions have been tested by means of ionospheric reflection height data in the low-frequency (LF) range and critical frequency data series of the ionospheric E layer, foE, observed at different stations around the world. It was shown that an essential part of the derived trends in the mesosphere and in the lower thermosphere is correlated with long-term changes of the atmospheric ozone content. During the sub-interval with the strongest ozone decrease (1979–1995) the detected ionospheric trends are most pronounced. Additionally was also demonstrated that the longitudinally dependent ozone trends are related to similar variations in the foE trends.     

Prediction possibilities of Arosa total ozone

Using the periodicities obtained by a Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis (MESA) of the Arosa total ozone data (CC) series for 1932–1971, the values predicted for 1972 onwards were compared with the observed values of the (AD) series. A change of level was noticed, with the observed (AD) values lower by about 7 D.U. Also, the matching was poor in 1980, 1981, 1982. In the monthly values, the most prominent periodicity was the annual wave, comprising some 80% variance. In the 12 month running averages, the annual wave was eliminated and the most prominent periodicity wasT=3.7 years, encompassing roundly 20% variance. This and other periodicities atT=4.7, 5.4, 6.2, 10 and 16 years were all statistically significant at a 3.5a priori i.e., 2a posteriori level. However, the predictions from these were unsatisfactory, probably because some of these periodicities may betransient i.e., changing amplitudes and/or phases with time. Thus, no meaningful prediction seem possible for Arosa total ozone.     

Modeling and Prediction of Monthly Total Ozone Concentrations by Use of an Artificial Neural Network Based on Principal Component Analysis

In the work discussed in this paper we considered total ozone time series over Kolkata (22°34′10.92″N, 88°22′10.92″E), an urban area in eastern India. Using cloud cover, average temperature, and rainfall as the predictors, we developed an artificial neural network, in the form of a multilayer perceptron with sigmoid non-linearity, for prediction of monthly total ozone concentrations from values of the predictors in previous months. We also estimated total ozone from values of the predictors in the same month. Before development of the neural network model we removed multicollinearity by means of principal component analysis. On the basis of the variables extracted by principal component analysis, we developed three artificial neural network models. By rigorous statistical assessment it was found that cloud cover and rainfall can act as good predictors for monthly total ozone when they are considered as the set of input variables for the neural network model constructed in the form of a multilayer perceptron. In general, the artificial neural network has good potential for predicting and estimating monthly total ozone on the basis of the meteorological predictors. It was further observed that during pre-monsoon and winter seasons, the proposed models perform better than during and after the monsoon.     

Seasonal acceleration of the rate of total ozone decreases over Central Europe: impact of tropopause height changes

Total ozone data from some European stations have been analyzed to detect the ozone decrease in different seasons from 1979 to 1995. The differences between the winter–spring (December–March) and summer (May–August) total ozone means have decreased distinctly during the last three decades, by 10 Dobson Units per decade, showing that the winter–spring decrease is significantly stronger than the summer one. Applying a multiple regression model to the monthly means of tropopause height, positive trends in the summer and winter–spring seasons have been found, especially since 1979. This corresponds to the accelerating ozone decrease then. The possibility of using tropopause height variations as an indicator of dynamical variability in the total ozone trend model is discussed. The total ozone response to the changes of tropopause height seems to be independent of timescale over which the tropopause-total ozone relationship has been examined (month-to-month, interannual). The total ozone trends, as well as the accelerated rate of ozone decrease since 1979 in the winter–spring and summer seasons, respectively, are reduced by about 0.5–1% per decade after inclusion of the tropopause height effect on the ozone model.     

Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation trends in the Yangtze River catchment

Precipitation trends in the Yangtze River catchment (PR China) have been analyzed for the past 50 years by applying the Mann-Kendall trend test and geospatial analyses. Monthly precipitation trends of 36 stations have been calculated. Significant positive trends at many stations can be observed for the summer months, which naturally show precipitation maxima. They were preceded and/or followed by negative trends. This observation points towards a concentration of summer precipitation within a shorter period of time. The analysis of a second data set on a gridded basis with 0.5° resolution reveals trends with distinct spatial patterns. The combination of classic trend tests and spatially interpolated precipitation data sets allows the spatiotemporal visualization of detected trends. Months with positive trends emphasize the aggravation of severe situation in a region, which is particularly prone to flood disasters during summer. Reasons for the observed trends were found in variations in the meridional wind pattern at the 850 hPa level, which account for an increased transport of warm moist air to the Yangtze River catchment during the summer months.     

Representativeness of total ozone trends as derived from satellite BUV and ground-based measurements

The information content of the 7-year BUV data set has been reexamined by a comparison with a fairly large set of ground Dobson and M-83 instruments. The satellite-ground intercomparison of total ozone was done under different types of ground observation techniques (observation code) and different instrument exposure (exposure code) and for various distances of the subsatellite point from the station. Because of the existing latitudinal gradient in total ozone, at a given station the bias ground-BUV tends to be smaller when the subsatellite point is at a latitude higher than the station's latitude. Knowing the total ozone gradient at a given station, the BUV total ozone has been corrected to account for the ozone gradient and the correlation was calculated with the corresponding ground observations. These correlations seem to offer no improvement when compared with the correlations between the ground ozone and the actual BUV ozone at distances of the subsatellite point from the station within 200 km from the station used in previous studies. The seasonal variation of the BUV-ground correlation reveals information on the noise level of the measurements and the geographical distribution of the percentage mean bias: (Ground-BUV)×100/(Ground) is discussed. Both on short and on longer time scales it appears that the BUV derived recommended total ozone data set is reasonably good and possible instrumental drifts are not large. The analysis includes an extension through April 1977 of the BUV and contour-derived total ozone trends byLondon andLing (1980). Over the northern hemisphere both data sets (contour and BUV) show comparable trends over middle and high latitudes which range from –3 D.U./year to –5 D.U./year during the 7-year period April 1970–April 1977. In the southern hemisphere, however, long-term variation in total ozone cannot be determined from ground observations alone. It is concluded that for unknown reasons during the 7-year period of study, total ozone has been decreasing over most of the globe. The negative growth rates at high latitudes of the northern hemisphere are highly significant.     

Intercomparison of New Zealand filter ozonometer and Dobson spectrophotometer total ozone measurements

A commercial version of the prototype New Zealand narrowband interference filter instrument has been run at Garmisch-Partenkirchen since autumn 1977. The vicinity of the Dobson stations Hohenpeissenberg and Arosa permitted a check of the filter instrument's utility, reliability and long-term stability in total ozone measurement by (i) station to station-or short-range intercomparisons of daily means and (ii) a several days' direct intercomparison at Arosa in spring 1978.The regression analysis with the Hohenpeissenberg data-covering the five month autumn-winter 1977/78 period with highly variable ozone-shows that the filter instrument's direct-sun modeX _AD total ozone values were systematically too low by a conversion factor of 0.93. The excellent proportionality between the instruments is indicated by the standard deviation of only 1,3%. The (–7.0±1.3%) bias perfectly agrees with the result reported byBasher [1] for a similar, yet direct, intercomparison.During the direct Arosa intercomparison the filter instrument also tracked down short-time variations in a remarkable, though biased, parallelism with the Dobson instruments, and theX _AD daily means fit well into the prognostic relationship derived from the preceding autumn-winter short-range intercomparison.A creeping deterioration of the characteristics of the 305.5 nm double filter then prevented any furtherX _AD total ozone intercomparison. No final decision is possible whether this behaviour after a half year's run is typical or just an unusual exception. The otherwise excellent long-term stability is demonstrated by the comparison of theX _CD daily means with the HohenpeissenbergX _AD data for a 1 1/2 year's period (autumn 1977–spring 1979), resulting in the same bias relationship as for theX _AD total ozone measurements.     

Short-term ground ozone fluctuations at Poona

Short-term fluctuations superimposed on the diurnal variations of surface ozone recorded at Poona during 1969–1970 are discussed.While there is a net production of ozone during electrical discharges in a thunder cloud, the surface ozone recorder often registered a decrease in surface ozone concentration. This decrease coincided with updraughts generated during the formation of a thunderstorm. Similar sharp increases in ozone were observed with downdraughts. In cases of lightning without the development of a thunderstorm over the station, an increase in ozone density was observed just after the first lightning discharge.Apart from the fluctuations associated with thunderstorms in summer, sharp fluctuations in density were also noticed during winter, in the mornings. Abrupt falls in ozone occur with the formation of a stable layer near the ground at night and a sudden surge after the breaking up of the layers in the morning. The changes in ozone are, however, much more pronounced than those in temperature and wind and this striking correlation between surface ozone, surface air temperature and wind provides a unique tool for the study of low-level temperature inversions, their establishment and destruction.     

Regression analysis of biologically effective integrated irradiances versus ozone,clouds and geometric factors

Factors affecting UV radiation at the earth’s surface include the solar zenith angle, earth–sun distance, clouds, aerosols, altitude, ozone and the ground’s albedo. The variation of some factors, such as solar zenith angle and earth–sun distance, is well established. Total column ozone and UV radiation are inversely related, but the presence of clouds may affect the resulting UV in such a way that a depletion in the total column ozone may not always lead to an increase in the radiation at the earth’s surface. The aim of this paper is to determine the contribution to the variation of the biologically effective irradiance by geometric factors, clouds and ozone, jointly and separately, in Ushuaia (54°49′S, 68°19′W, sea level), and the seasonal variation of this relationship, given the magnitude and seasonal distribution of the ozone depletion and the frequent presence of high cloud cover in this site. For this purpose, multivariate and simple regression analyses of daily and monthly integrated irradiances weighted by the DNA damage action spectrum as a function of total column ozone and the integrated irradiances in the band 337–342 nm (as a proxy for cloud cover and geometric factors) have been performed. For the analysed period (September 1989–December 1996) more than 97% of the variation of the DNA damage weighted daily integrated irradiances is described by changes in ozone, clouds and geometric factors. Simple regression analysis for daily integrated irradiances, grouped by month, shows that most of this variation is explained by clouds and geometric factors, except in spring, when strong ozone depletion occurs intermittently over this area. When monthly trends are removed, similar results are observed, except for late winter.     

Relationship between phases of quasi-decadal oscillations of total ozone and the 11-year solar cycle

Temporal variability of the relationship between the phases of quasi-decadal oscillations (QDOs) of total ozone (TO), measured at the Arosa station, and the Ri international sunspot number have been analyzed for the period of 1932–2009. Before the 1970s, the maximum phase of ozone QDOs lagged behind solar activity variations by about 2.5–2.8 years and later outstripped by about 1.5 years. We assumed that the TO QDOs in midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere were close to being in resonance with solar activity oscillations in the period from the mid-1960s to the mid-1970s and assessed the characteristic delay period of TO QDOs. The global distribution of phases and amplitudes of TO QDOs have been studied for the period from 1979 to 2008 based on satellite data. The maximum phase of TO QDOs first onsets in northern middle and high latitudes and coincides with the end of the growth phase of the 11-year solar cycle. In the tropics, the maximum oscillation phase lags behind by 0.5–1 year. The maximum phase lag near 40–50° S is about two years. The latitudinal variations of the phase of TO QDOs have been approximated.     

北太平洋上空臭氧总量长期变化趋势及其影响因素分析

本文基于1979—2014年臭氧总量的卫星遥感数据,利用多元线性回归模型对臭氧总量数据序列进行模拟计算,考察了北太平洋上空臭氧总量长期变化趋势及其影响因素的作用.结果表明,北太平洋地区大气臭氧总量长期变化呈现减少趋势,但是减少速率随季节和纬度带表现出差异性,在各纬度带臭氧峰值季节臭氧下降趋势最为显著.在0°—15°N地区臭氧高值出现在夏秋季节并在8月达到峰值,峰值月份臭氧年均下降率约为0.2DU/a;15°—30°N亚热带地区臭氧高值出现在春夏季并在5月达到峰值,峰值月份臭氧年均下降速率约为0.22DU/a;而在30°—45°N中纬度地区臭氧高值出现在冬春季并在2月达到峰值,峰值月份臭氧年均下降率0.75DU/a.在臭氧分布年平均态基础上,影响臭氧总量分布变化的因素主要有臭氧损耗物质(EESC)、太阳辐射周期(Solar)、准两年振荡(QBO)和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)等.其中,EESC导致臭氧损耗效应随着纬度升高而增大,在从低到高的三个纬度带损耗最大值分别为11DU、16DU和66DU;Solar增强导致臭氧增加,在三个纬度带的增加效应最大值分别为16DU、17DU和19DU;QBO@10hPa和QBO@30hPa对臭氧影响幅度基本在±10DU内波动,只有QBO@10hPa对30°—45°N区域的影响作用达到14DU,值得注意的是QBO影响作用随着纬度变化存在相位差异,在0°—15°N区域臭氧变化与QBO呈现相同相位,而在15°—30°N和30°—45°N区域臭氧变化与QBO呈现相反相位;ENSO对各个纬度带臭氧影响幅度也在±10DU内,ENSO影响作用在不同纬度带也存在相位差异,臭氧总量变化在0°—15°N、15°—30°N区域与ENSO相位相反,在30°—45°N区域与ENSO相位一致.