注水诱发地震的研究进展

研究注水诱发地震的特征、发生机理和最大可能震级等对开展诱发地震的预防、危险性评价、减灾策略制定等方面的工作具有重要意义。文章系统地梳理了国内外关于注水诱发地震研究的主要认识和分歧。结果表明：(1)诱发地震的最大可能震级由断层大小和应力状态等地质条件决定,受注水压力和累积注水量等参数的影响;(2)识别诱发地震的可靠方法取决于地震和注水之间的时空相关性,统计模型的参数以及断层活化分析等一系列证据链条;(3)当断层与流体储层之间存在水力连接时,孔隙压力扰动是诱发地震的主要发生机制,反之岩石基质体积变形引起的孔隙弹性应力变化主导了诱发地震的过程。此外,注水诱发的稳定滑动传播到断层的孕震部分、流体的化学作用和小地震级联触发效应也可能在注水诱发地震中发挥重要的作用。研究结果将为注水诱发地震机理研究和减轻破坏性诱发地震灾害提供一定的科学参考。     

注入诱发地震:利用高应力路径储层和温度诱发应力预处理降低诱发地震风险的策略

如果应力路径足够高,正断层应力机制下的流体注入可以稳定储层。当储层由于注入而显著冷却时,这种稳定性将消失。此外,本文还提出了一种新的激发剪切储层的策略,以减少诱发大震级地震的可能性。本文提出的方法适用于逆断层应力状态,包括初始应力预处理阶段,在该阶段,储层被冷却,压力增加受到限制。这一过程降低了水平总应力,从而也降低了差异应力。然后,储层受到孔隙压力快速增加的刺激,在较低的差异应力下导致剪切破坏,比储层中最初出现的差异应力要小。由于古登堡—里克特b值和差异应力之间的联系,以这种方式激发的储层将表现出更高的b值,从而也减少了发生大地震的可能性。该方法的适用范围包括正断层和走滑断层的应力机制。     

山东胜利油田角07井注水地震序列的演化及其机制

1985年12月至1986年1月发生的山东省胜利油田角07井注水地震序列,经历了特有的演化过程,即全序列可分解为4个子序列,且子序列逐渐由震群型向主余型过渡.前期地震(最大地震之前)呈升级趋势,地震b值前期高于后期,地震时间结构的分数维D则前期低于后期,以及较大地震的lg△t-lgt前期较为紊乱,而后期线性相关等.计算表明,注水后岩石孔隙压力大于临界孔隙压力,从而诱发了地壳浅部岩石低初始应力的提前释放,而水的渗透作用则导致岩石孔隙压力随时间由高度非均匀分布向相对均匀分布转换.角07井地震序列的演化与这一物理过程有关.      

全球干热岩资源开发诱发地震活动和灾害风险管控

干热岩地热资源作为一种绿色可再生的新型能源,其开发利用已成为当前世界各国尤其是发达国家能源战略的重要组成部分.但由于干热岩位于地壳浅部3～10 km,在采用增强型地热系统(EGS)等通用开发方式过程中,伴随着地壳应力状态的扰动,部分开采项目发生较大震级的诱发地震事件,甚至造成明显灾害、引起社会问题,亟待实现科学利用和风险管控.鉴于此问题在平衡能源开发战略和社会安全领域的重要性和关键性,本文梳理了全球干热岩开采诱发地震的总体情况、典型案例,整理了在成因和机理研究、地震灾害风险管控和缓解等方面的研究进展.综合分析结果表明,已有EGS项目案例中诱发地震震级超过3.0的达到31.2％、主要与断层活化有关,最大的诱发地震可发生在注水压裂、关井后、循环生产等各阶段.干热岩开采诱发地震有多种成因,已有案例多为多种成因共同作用,其中的关井后的尾随效应是目前重大难点.目前世界各国已开展了广泛的诱发地震机理研究并探索多种减灾措施,认为累积注水体积、注水速率与最大诱发震级之间不存在普适性的定标关系,前瞻性预测需要采用"一井一策"的方式.在缓解诱发地震灾害风险上,普遍采用科学的流体注入策略、对注采策略进行验证校准、持续开展地震活动监测等系列措施.此外,对储层的临界应力状态和应力时空演化的量化描述、地热储层内的先存断层与裂缝的探测识别、可有效管控地震发生的流体注入策略等,是当前干热岩资源开发减轻地震风险的主要技术难点,而利用地热储层实时感知信息技术、采用新的注入热交换载体、发展前瞻性的地震预测方法是该领域目前重点关注的技术方向.根据我国的干热岩资源开发和减轻地震灾害风险的实际情况,亟待建立开采场地安全性和灾害风险评价、多学科的地震监测网络和分析技术、地震灾害风险管控红绿灯系统等技术体系,并加强关井后的尾随现象、多场耦合等科学问题的基础研究.     

不同时期水库地震活动主要影响因素讨论以三峡库区微震活动为例

结合微震活动的流体作用强度检测及孔隙压扩散模拟,讨论了三峡库区不同时期微震活动的主要影响因素。以2008年9月蓄水季为界划分前、后期,前期流体渗透导致的孔隙压力增加,使裂隙或断层面强度降低,是库区微震活动的主要影响因素,这一时期微震频次及ETAS模型参数μ值有起伏地缓慢增大,与库水位加卸载过程关系不明显; 后期由于流体渗透引起的孔隙压力变化趋于零,在新的流体平衡条件下,库水位加卸载过程所导致的裂隙或断层面上的应力变化,成为库区微震活动的主要影响因素,这一时期微震频次及μ值显示出与水位变化明显的关联特征。库区小震震源深度的时间变化支持上述观点。在此基础上,进一步讨论了水库“诱发”和水库“触发”地震的力学差异,认为前者主要缘于流体渗透导致的裂隙或断层面强度的“主动”降低,后者则主要与库水加卸载所导致的裂隙或断层面上应力增强有关。进一步推论认为,流体对小地震“诱发”、“触发”皆可能发生,但中强地震缘于流体“诱发”的可能性非常小,对水库区发生的中强地震,流体仅可能对处于临界状态的断层系统起到“触发”作用。     

中国重庆荣昌气田3km深度注水诱发地震研究

自1988年7月起,有关部门在位于中国西南部的重庆荣昌天然气田以2．1～2．9MPa的泵送压力间歇性地向2．6～2．9kin的深度注入了超过100万立方米的采气废水。截止到2006年底,这项注水工作已诱发了超过32000次地表记录到的地震,包括2次ML≥5．0的地震,14次ML≥4．0的地震,及超过100次ML≥3．0的地震。我们对该地震序列的传染型余震序列（简称ETAS）模型及地震活动的一些统计参数的时间演化进行了统计分析。传染型余震序列模型中的随机成分可被视为流体驱动的地震活动的指标,而大森定律型余震的发生率则表示了地震本身的应力触发。我们观测到注水以来地震的活动可划分为3个不同阶段,与注水的不同时期相对应。第一阶段对应于低速率（长时间间隔）的注水初期,绝大多数地震为大森型地震,只有8％是因外部因素（即注水）所致。第二阶段对应于高速率注水时期,具有地震活动度高,而且有相当比例（45％）的地震活动与流体作用有关的特点。第三阶段注水速率的降低直接导致地震活动下降;有超过70％的地震为随机发生,表明了外部触发起主导作用。荣昌诱发地震序列的物理机制是伴随深井注水的孔隙压力扩散作用和先前地震本身引起的库仑破裂应力变化联合作用的结果。深井注水引起的2．1～2．9MPa的孔隙压力增加,足以引起当地地层破裂而发生地震。     

四川长宁地区注水诱发地震的孔隙压力扩散特征

正近些年,注水诱发地震一直是国内外学者的研究热点之一。研究表明,诸如大型水库蓄水、地热能开发、天然气和矿山开采、地下流体注入等工业活动均可能诱发地震。注水诱发地震与天然地震的最大区别在于其形成机理的差异,为此学者们一直致力于两者的流体触发机制研究。结合钻孔注水试验结果及理论推导,国外学者提出了评价流体触发地震     

基于可靠度理论的水库诱发地震分析

分析了水库诱发地震的影响因素,详细阐述了库水在诱发地震中起到的作用;将诱发水库地震的因素——断层面的产状、摩擦系数、凝聚力、应力状态、孔隙水压力视为随机变量,基于断层面的库仑应力,建立断层发震的功能函数,并应用可靠度理论,分析各主要因素对发震概率的影响。经一特定实例分析表明:1)随着断层面孔隙水压力的增加,断层发震概率大幅度增加;在孔隙水压力均值相等的条件下,随着发震部位孔隙水变异性的增加,发震概率明显增加;2)走向与水平向大主应力方向一致的断层和倾角60°的陡倾角断层更容易诱发地震;3)水平向小主应力对诱发地震的影响较大主应力大得多,水平向小主应力越大,断层越稳定,诱发地震的概率越小;4)随着断层面的摩擦系数和凝聚力的增加,断层的发震概率逐渐减小,但断层面摩擦系数对诱发地震的影响较断层面的凝聚力大得多。     

超深层碳酸盐岩储层地震岩石物理特征和模型表征

揭示超深层碳酸盐岩储层的地震岩石物理响应机理可以为深储层测井数据解释、地球物理预测提供物理基础,对于深层油气勘探开发、向地球深部进军都有重要意义.深层致密碳酸盐岩储层面临着高温高压、成岩作用显著、异常压力普遍等新的物理环境,其岩石骨架、储集非均质、以及流体属性都将发生系统的变化.通过对塔里木盆地超深层(>7000 m)样品的弹性性质测量,系统的研究了深层碳酸盐岩储层的压力效应和水饱和流体效应,厘清了控制深层碳酸盐岩储层地震弹性性质的二元主控因素：裂隙发育和流体类型.且这二者呈现明显的耦合关系,裂隙越发育,越有利于识别不同流体的弹性特征.深层碳酸盐岩样品整体显示弱VTI(垂直横向各向同性)各向异性特征(<4%),也反映了在微观尺度上,水平裂隙相较于垂直裂隙对地震各向异性的影响更大.孔隙压力和气油比(GOR)对深层条件下油气流体的弹性响应也有较大影响：油气流体的弹性模量随着气油比的增加呈现明显下降,但随着孔隙压力的增加呈现升高趋势.在深储层地震岩石物理响应机理的基础上,建立了表征深层碳酸盐岩储层二元主控因素的地震岩石物理模型,该模型可以有效的刻画裂隙密度、流体类型对深层碳酸盐岩...     

沉积岩储藏系统小断层在油气田注水诱发地震中的作用——以四川盆地为例

以四川盆地为例,通过分析沉积岩储藏系统中断层的发育特征和典型沉积岩断层形成前后岩石变形破坏过程的实验研究,探讨沉积岩层中小断层在油气田注水诱发地震中的作用及较大地震发生条件。首先,通过分析已有的有关四川盆地深部注水诱发地震活动情况的资料得到具有一定普遍性的认识:诱发地震的空间分布明显受已有断层或破裂的控制,有感地震尤其是可导致一定灾害的中强地震往往都是已有断层的重新活动所致。其次,结合石油地质资料及盆地边缘地区出露的一些未成熟小型断层的地质与构造特征观察分析,发现这些断层的存在具有普遍性而且是地下油气纵向运移的主要通道。进而,在实验室条件下对四川盆地几个典型沉积岩样本进行了三轴压缩破坏实验。采用多通道宽动态高速声发射观测技术与三维X射线CT成像技术分析断层形成过程及形成后的几何特征和摩擦系数的变化。最后,通过融合各方面研究结果分析注水诱发地震的发生机制和模型,探讨了较大地震发生条件,为提升注水诱发地震评估能力和建立安全注水操作管理指南提供理论基础。该结果有助于理解为何四川盆地油气田注水诱发地震活动如此剧烈。主要的前三叠系沉积岩(包括白云岩、页岩及白云质灰岩)均具有较高的破坏强度和脆性变形破坏特征,使四川盆地油气储藏系统有条件保持较高的应力水平和在一定条件下导致地震性断层破坏。一般,一条尺度达到几km的断层便足以产生M5级别的中强地震。这些条件使得该区具有发生破坏性注水诱发地震的可能。有必要在对注水孔周围的破裂及断层构造的空间分布、尺度大小及力学性质特征有基本了解的条件下,通过注水数值模拟和监测注水诱发地震的时空演化,建立适当的统计模型实现诱发地震的统计评估和预测,指导注水操作而达到减少灾害性地震发生的风险。     

Triggered earthquakes and deep well activities

Earthquakes can be triggered by any significant perturbation of the hydrologic regime. In areas where potentially active faults are already close to failure, the increased pore pressure resulting from fluid injection, or, alternatively, the massive extraction of fluid or gas, can induce sufficient stress and/or strain changes that, with time, can lead to sudden catastrophic failure in a major earthquake. Injection-induced earthquakes typically result from the reduction in frictional strength along preexisting, nearby faults caused by the increased formation fluid pressure. Earthquakes associated with production appear to respond to more complex mechanisms of subsidence, crustal unloading, and poroelastic changes in response to applied strains induced by the massive withdrawal of subsurface material. As each of these different types of triggered events can occur up to several years after well activities have begun (or even several years after all well activities have stopped), this suggests that the actual triggering process may be a very complex combination of effects, particularly if both fluid extraction and injection have taken place locally. To date, more than thirty cases of earthquakes triggered by well activities can be documented throughout the United States and Canada. Based on these case histories, it is evident that, owing to preexisting stress conditions in the upper crust, certain areas tend to have higher probabilities of exhibiting such induced seismicity.     

利用三维孔隙弹性模型探讨紫坪铺水库对汶川地震的影响

本文基于三维孔隙弹性理论,建立了紫坪铺水库及周边地区的有限元模型.根据紫坪铺水库开始蓄水到汶川地震发震时刻的水位变化情况,计算了整个区域的孔隙压力和库仑应力.详细讨论了断层及周围地层的弹性模量和扩散系数对计算结果的影响.计算结果表明:从弹性角度看,断层的弹性模量对汶川地震震源处的库仑应力影响很小;震源处的库仑应力随着断层和周围地层的扩散系数增大而增大.当给定弹性模量和扩散系数代表性值的时候,计算结果表明在汶川地震发震时刻,震源处的库仑应力变化量为+1 kPa左右,这表明紫坪铺水库使得汶川地震发震断层更加危险.是否这个量级的库仑应力就能够触发汶川地震还需要进一步探讨.通过分析库区周边小震的分布,发现小震分布区域均是库仑应力增加的地区,因此紫坪铺水库周边的小震应该与紫坪铺水库蓄水有直接关系.     

福建仙游震群的孔隙压扩散特征

2010年8月至2015年12月,福建仙游地区发生了一系列小震群活动。基于孔隙压力扩散机制对精定位的小震数据进行分析,结果显示仙游震群序列在空间上呈丛集分布,且具有明显的分区现象,发震时间受金钟水库水位变化的调制作用较为明显。5个分区（A—E）的流体孔隙压力扩散系数分别为0.04,0.08,0.07,0.12和0.05 m2/s,伴随着地震活动性由强至弱,孔隙压扩散系数呈先增后减的变化规律。仙游震群位于断裂构造发育区内,震中分布优势方向与石苍断裂一致,沿着断裂走向的孔隙压扩散系数最大,说明地下流体沿狭长的石苍断裂由NW向NE活动。各分区的流体孔隙压系数与扩散最大距离、最大诱发地震震级及地震释放能量均有较好的相关性。此外,当金钟水库水位下降时,各分区的扩散距离r呈现减小趋势,震群范围收缩,地震频次增加,并伴有较大震级的地震,说明水位下降时,流体孔隙压力的扩散作用在同一地点反复作用,使得触发源附近区域的应力水平更容易达到饱和或临界状态,进而触发较大震级的地震,这也解释了水位下降过程中地震更为强烈的原因。      

RELIABILITY BASED ANALYSIS ON RESERVOIR INDUCED EARTHQUAKES

Reservoir induced earthquakes (RIE) are caused by impoundment of reservoir,with the characteristics of small magnitude and shallow focal depth,but they can also lead to not only economic loss,but also many serious secondary disasters,such as dam destruction,landslide,producing greater damages far more than the damages directly produced by earthquakes.So study on RIE is quite significant in the field of dam construction,thus more attentions should be paid to RIE.There are many factors to induce reservoir earthquakes,such as geological condition,rock mass mechanical index,state of crustal stress,pore pressure distribution,all of which are extremely difficult to measure due to the presence of many randomness;even if applying most advanced methods to measure them,the values fluctuate in great range,without a certain value in time and space.The great variety of these parameters gives rise to troubles to analyze RIE by deterministic approaches.How to handle the randomness of these factors has become vital problem in the field of RIE research.In this study,based on probability theory,and taking the main influence factors as stochastic variables,a new method to analyze probability of RIE was proposed by applying reliability theory.Firstly,the factors inducing reservoir earthquakes were analyzed,of which pore pressure in fault caused by water impounding of reservoir plays a vital role in triggering earthquakes.Then,taking these factors,including attitude,friction coefficient,cohesion of fault plane,stress state of fault plane and pore pressure in fault,as stochastic variables,performance function of triggering earthquakes was established by applying Coulomb stress on the fault plane,and reliability theory was used to analyze probability of earthquake induced by main factors.A special case analysis showed that:(1) The probability of induced earthquakes dramatically increases as pore pressure in fault increases;under the condition of equal pore pressure at triggering earthquakes area,probability of induced earthquakes obviously rises with enlarging of variation of pore pressure;(2) those faults with strike approximately parallel to horizontal maximum principal stress direction or with steep dip angle about more than 60° are prone to inducing earthquake;(3) as horizontal minimum principal stress increases,which has greater effect on induced earthquakes than horizontal maximum principal stress,probability of induced earthquakes becomes lower and fault keeps in more stable condition;(4) probability of induced earthquakes gradually decreases with the increase of friction coefficient and cohesion of fault plane;However,the effect of friction coefficient on induced earthquakes is much greater than the cohesion of fault plane.     

Poroelasticity: Finite element modelling of anomalous tilt and pore pressure caused by pumping in a sedimentary half space with fault

Extraction of groundwater or hydrocarbons causes pore pressure gradients and soil deformation due to poroelastic coupling. Recent studies show that high-resolution engineering tiltmeters installed at shallow depth between 2 and 10 m resolve this deformation. Models using poroelasticity can describe the relationship between fluid extraction, pore pressure gradients and induced tilt for homogeneous and layered sedimentary half spaces. Faults intersecting a stack of sedimentary layers, for example in the Lower-Rhine-Embayment, are of fundamental impact to the groundwater flow system of an area. However, the fault’s hydromechanical effect on pump induced tilt and the pore pressure regime is still poorly investigated. We chose a comparatively simple approach to quantify anomalous pump induced tilt and pore pressure observed near a fault and close to the surface in a sedimentary subsoil. A PC-based Finite Element software is used to model poroelastic deformation, i.e. modelling vertical tilt and excess pore pressure in response to fluid extraction through a singular well. We compare numerical solutions for models with and without faults and show that a fault can modify symmetry and amplitude of the deformation field by more than a magnitude. We conclude that tilt and pore pressure measurements also at shallow depth can thus be biased by large subsurface structures like faults. Vice versa, these measurements may provide means to quantify hydromechanical effects caused by subsurface structures. However, depending on the geological setting, i.e. if pathways are established by a fault, the anomaly caused by the fault can also be small and hard to detect. Therefore, faults and geological structures like material boundaries have to be considered in poroelastic models carefully. For tilt surveys with a limited number of instruments in geologically well constrained areas these models allow the preselection of potential positions for tiltmeters where prominent field anomalies are expected.     

Connection between earthquakes and deep fluids revealed by magnetotelluric imaging in Songyuan,China

Songyuan is the most earthquake prone area in northeast China.Since 2006,earthquakes have occurred in the area in the form of swarms,with a maximum magnitude of M_L5.8.There is much controversy about the cause of the Songyuan earthquakes.We attempted to determine the cause using a three-dimensional electrical conductivity structure inverted from a regional network of magnetotelluric data in the Songyuan area.The L-BFGS inversion method was applied,with a fullimpedance tensor data set used as the inversion input.Combined with an evaluation of the earthquake locations,the resistivity model revealed a northeast-oriented hidden fault running through the Songyuan earthquake area(SEA),which was speculated to be the preexisting Fuyu-Zhaodong Fault(FZF).Our resistivity model also found an apparent lithospheric low-resistivity anomaly beneath the earthquake area,which breached the high-resistivity lithospheric mantle and stalled at the base of the crust.A petrophysical analysis showed that this lower crustal low-resistivity anomaly was most likely attributed to hydrated partial melting,which could release water into the lower crust during later magma emplacements.While weakening the strength of the FZF,these ascending fluids also increased the pore pressure in the fault,further reducing the shear strength of the fault.Shear stress action(a fault strike component of the east-west regional compress),together with possible near-surface disturbances,may drive the fault to slip and trigger the earthquakes in Songyuan.It is possible that the continuous replenishment of fluids from the deeper mantle forces the Songyuan earthquakes into the form of swarms.We infer that the Songyuan earthquakes could be attributed to a combination of preexisting faults,regional stress,and deep fluids associated with plate subduction,and near surface disturbances might induce the earthquakes in advance.The Songyuan earthquakes are inherently induced earthquakes,fed by deep fluids.     

重庆荣昌诱发地震区精细速度结构及2010年M_L5.1地震序列精确定位

根据重庆市地震台网和流动地震台网记录到的天然地震资料,利用接收函数反演得到荣昌地区的精细一维速度结构。在此基础上用双差定位法对2010年9月10日重庆荣昌M_L5.1地震序列进行了精定位。结果表明,地震定位精度得到极大提高,震中分布与区域地质构造的关系更加清晰。多数地震集中在主要断层附近并呈条带状分布,震源深度集中在2km附近,与主要储藏层及注水井深度吻合,初步认为该地震序列为注水活动所诱发的构造地震活动。文中获得的精准的速度结构及地震空间分布对于进一步深入研究震区深部地质构造特征、注水诱发地震的机理等具有重要意义。     

重庆荣昌诱发地震区精细速度结构及2010年ML5.1地震序列精确定位

Based on data collected from a temporal seismic network, and in addition to the data from some nearby permanent stations, we investigate the velocity structure and seismicity in the Rongchang gas field, where significant injection-induced seismicity has been identified. First, we use receiver functions from distant earthquakes to invert detailed 1-D velocity structures beneath typical stations. Then, we use the double-difference hypocenter location method to re-locate earthquakes of the 2010 ML5.1 earthquake sequence that occurred in the region. The re-located hypocenters show that the 2010 ML5.1 earthquake sequence was distributed in a small area surrounding major injection wells and clustered mostly along pre-existing faults. Major earthquakes show a focal depth less than 5km with a dominant depth of ～2km, a depth of major reservoirs and injection wells. We thus conclude that the 2010 ML 5.1 earthquake sequence might have been induced by the deep well injection of unwanted water at a depth ～3km in the Rongchang gas field.