Source study of two small earthquakes of Delhi, India, and estimation of ground motion from future moderate, local events

We study source characteristics of two small, local earthquakes which occurred in Delhi on 28 April 2001 (Mw3.4) and 18 March 2004 (Mw2.6). Both earthquakes were located in the heart of New Delhi, and were recorded in the epicentral region by digital accelerographs. The depths of the events are 15 km and 8 km, respectively. First motions and waveform modeling yield a normal-faulting mechanism with large strike-slip component. The strike of one of the nodal planes roughly agrees with NE–SW orientation of faults and lineaments mapped in the region. We use the recordings of the 2004 event as empirical Green’s functions to synthesize expected ground motions in the epicentral region of a Mw5.0 earthquake in Delhi. It is possible that such a local event may control the hazard in Delhi. Our computations show that a Mw5.0 earthquake would give rise to PGA of ~200 to 450 gal, the smaller values occurring at hard sites. The estimate of corresponding PGV is ~6 to 15 cm/s. The recommended response spectra, Sa, 5% damping, for Delhi, which falls in zone IV of the Indian seismic zoning map, may not be conservative enough at soft sites for a postulated Mw5.0 local earthquake.     

关于抗震设计规范与地震动区划图的有关探讨

本文总结了国内外桥梁抗震设计规范和建筑结构抗震设计规范的设计思想和设计方法,介绍了我国和美国地震动参数区划图的发展和现状,对比分析了抗震规范使用地震区划图的情况。针对我国抗震设计规范和地震动参数区划图的现状,提出了两条建议：（1）地震动参数区划图编制部门应直接提供多水准的地震动参数区划图;（2）抗震设计规范应彻底抛弃设防烈度概念,以地震重现期取代原地震危险程度标示方法。     

智能辅助地震区划系统IASHES

本文概述了“场地地震危险度评估专家系统”课题组６年工作的主要成果和智能辅助地震区划系统ＩＡＳＨＥＳ的组成及测试结果，着重叙述了潜辰源区两级划分的思想，Ａ级潜在辰原区地震活动趋势估计和Ｂ级潜在震源区划分及震级上限判定所依据的专家知识，以及适用于专家系统的Ｂ级潜在震源区加权系数的确定方法。     

Zonation of Metropolitan France for the application of earthquake-resistant building regulations to critical facilities Part 1: Seismotectonic zonation

The seismotectonic zonation of Metropolitan France(part 1) and the derived seismic zonation (part 2)were carried out in order to facilitate andstandardize the application of earthquake-resistantbuilding regulations to critical facilities forreasons of environmental protection (Decree No.91-461, Ministerial Order dated 10 May 1993).According to current French legislation, adeterministic approach was adopted for the executionof these two successive zonations.The seismotectonic zonation is based on aseismotectonic analysis that included the followingstages: (1) collection and selection of base data(inherited tectonic structures, recent to contemporarydeformation and stress fields, seismicity); (2)comparison of the base data, interpretation andconstruction of a seismotectonic schema; (3) synthesisand compilation of the seismotectonic zonation.The zonation incorporates three types ofseismotectonic unit: faults or seismogenic structures,seismogenic structure systems and seismotectonicdomains. Reference earthquakes, corresponding to thestrongest known events, are associated with eachseismotectonic unit.The derived seismic zonation (see part 2) for theapplication of the legislation to critical facilitiesconstitutes an addendum, from a regulatory standpoint,to the `Nouveau zonage sismique de la France',developed in 1986 by Despeyroux and Godefroy for theapplication of earthquake-resistant buildingregulations to constructions at `normal risk'.     

Intelligence-Aided Seismic Zonation System IASHES

In this paper,the structure of the intelligence-aided seismic zonation system IASHES and its validation are briefly introduced.Emphasis is placed on the two rank scheme of potential seismic source areas; an expert subsystem for estimating the seismicity trends of rank A source areas; an expert subsystem for delineation of rank B source areas; an expert subsystem for judgment of upper limit of magnitude of rank B source areas,and an improved procedure for determination of weighting factors of rank B source areas,which is specially suitable to ES(Expert systems).     

美国地震区划图的发展——地震危险性图与抗震设计图

在过去的数十年里,美国地震区划图随着建筑抗震设计需求而不断发展变化,从最初的一张图发展成现今抗震设计图和地震危险性图两图共生的形式。地震危险性图主要反映依据地震科学认识与基础观测资料评估得到的国土地震危险性分布,抗震设计图则继承了传统地震区划图的主要功能,反映国土范围内建筑抗震设计所需地震动设计参数的分布,服务于建筑设计。依据抗震设计需求,美国地震区划图的演化过程可划分为地震系数分区区划、设计地震地震动区划和最大考虑地震地震动区划3个阶段,各阶段均始于地震危险性图的改进,并以抗震设计理念与方法的更新换代以及与之相适应的抗震设计图的编制为标志。本文总结了美国地震区划图的演化历程,对地震危险性图与抗震设计图发生变革的技术原因、主要特征、应用意义及其影响进行了重点的分析与论述。     

山东省场地类别分布及地震动峰值加速度区划调整

首先,本文搜集了山东省5220个建设工程场地的资料,引入"分布区"的概念,统计分析了山东省场地类别的区域分布并进行了分区。然后,根据《中国地震动参数区划图（GB18306-2015）》中的山东省地震动峰值加速度区划以及Ⅲ类场地调整系数,对山东省Ⅲ类场地分布区的地震动峰值加速度区划进行了调整,得到了考虑场地类别分区的山东省地震动峰值加速度区划图,增进了对山东省地震灾害风险空间分布的认识。结果表明,山东省场地类别分布与地貌分区有很强的相关性,Ⅰ-Ⅱ类场地分布区包括鲁中南山地丘陵区（西南部的山间平原地带除外）以及鲁东丘陵区,Ⅲ类场地分布区包括鲁西北-鲁西南平原区和鲁中南山地丘陵区西南部山间平原地带。Ⅰ-Ⅱ类场地分布区约占全省陆地面积的59.5%,Ⅰ-Ⅱ类场地分布区与Ⅲ类场地分布区的面积比例约为1.47。地震动峰值加速度区划图经过调整后,Ⅶ度及以上设防区域占全省陆地面积的比例由79%提高到90%,10个地级市的峰值加速度有提高。     

为新区划图编制所建立的地震动衰减关系

介绍了建立新一代地震区划图所采用的地震动参数衰减关系的总体思路,并从资料、衰减关系分区、衰减关系模型、回归方法、转换等方面说明了地震动参数衰减关系的建立过程,给出了我国分区地震烈度和地震动参数衰减关系结果。新的地震动衰减关系的建立,具有如下特点:一是基于更加丰富可靠的强震记录和烈度资料;二是采用了具有大震近场饱和特征的地震动衰减模型;三是采用了使结果更加稳定的分步回归方法;四是在地震动衰减关系分区时考虑了地震活动性特征。与第四代地震区划图衰减关系相比,由于地震动衰减模型的变化和高震级强震记录的增加,高震级下的峰值加速度有所降低,而中强地震区的峰值加速度则在低震级时有所提高。     

关于下一代地震区划图编制原则与关键技术的初步探讨

本文在回顾我国四代地震区划编图原则的基础上,结合对未来我国社会经济发展状况和国家地震安全政策变化的分析,同时对国际上地震区划研究进展与编图工作的现状了解,探讨了下一代地震区划编图的基本原则,提出了与之相关的基本科学技术问题,对第五代地震区划图的编制提出了初步的建议。     

A Preliminary Investigation of the Application of Modern Crustal Deformation Data in Seismic Zonation

INTRODUCTIONAs a high precision and lowcost tool,the global positioning system(GPS)allows easy andversatile observation anditis suitablefor dense deployment.Because of these merits,it has been usedto monitor crustal deformation andtostudytectonic movement on various scales,fromlocal segment offaults to global plates(Gan Weijun,2001).In recent years,GPS observation data has beenunceasingly enriched.Thus,it would be a very worthwhile effort to analyze the features of earthquakeoccurrence…     

Seismic Ground Motion Zoning Maps of the Pangxi Region

The seismotectonic environment and seismic activity in Southwest China region were studied based on new data and new results obtained during the Eighth and Ninth Five-Year Plans,the seismic areas and zones and potential seismic source zones were determined.and the relation between seismic activity parameters and ground motion attenuation was determined.Finally the seismic gound motion zoning maps of the Pangxi region was compiled by using the multi-parameter and multi-scheme method.     

Seismic Zonation of Central- Southern Hunan Province, China

Based on basic data used in compiling the Zonation Map of Earthquake Ground Motion Parameters in China, recent research on seismic safety assessment for engineering sites in central-southern Hunan Province, the new attenuation relationships of moderate earthquakes and the background seismicity data obtained by modern instrumental earthquake records since 1970, a new result of seismic zonation of central-southern Hunan Province is provided. The result shows that the area with PGA=0.05g has obviously increased in the new map compared with the previous one and is relatively consistent with the seismic disaster characteristics of moderate earthquakes that took place in the central-southern part of Hunan in recent years. This result will benefit the research and compilation of a new-generation seismic zonation map of earthquake ground motion parameters and the seismic hazard assessment in the moderate earthquake active regions in the central and eastern part of China.     

攀西地区不同风险水平下基岩地震动参数之间的关系

基于攀西地区基岩有效峰值加速度（EPA）区划图，本文统计得出50年超越概率63％，5％，3％，2％，1％下EPA与50年超越概率10％下EPA的比值分别为0.302,1.30,1.55,1.76,2.14,若以攀西地区地震动参数区划图作为抗震设防标准，同时仍按照89建筑规范中的有关规定进行地震作用计算，所考虑的地震作用是偏于保守，安全的，进一步研究比值A10/A63,发现其主要影响因素依次为地震动衰减关系，地震区带与潜在震溱区划分方案，地震活动性参数。本文研究成果将有助于地震参数区划图的推广和应用。     

基于智能终端和互联网的中国地震动参数区划图服务系统

新一代强制性国家标准《中国地震动参数区划图》（GB 18306—2015）已于2016年6月1日正式实施,它是保障人民生命财产安全和社会经济可持续发展的重要标准。借助日益普及的移动智能终端和快速发展的互联网技术,我们面向公众服务和行业应用,分别研发了地震动参数区划图APP（Android和iOS版）及B/S架构的数据库管理系统,对新一代区划图所涉及的“四级地震作用”、“土层影响双参数调整”等技术方法进行无纸化、自动化和智能化处理。此外,针对市县基层防震减灾管理工作的特点和需求,为新一代区划图提供了一套实用的信息服务系统。该服务系统在部分市县工作部门进行了推广和试用,取得了良好的效果。     

湖南省抗倒塌地震区划图预编试验的潜在震源区划分原则.

基于“地震区划概率水准确定与地震区划图预编试验研究”的成果,本文广泛收集了湖南省境内核电工程的安全性评价报告等有关资料,从地震活动性、地震构造、地球物理场及地震地质野外考察等室内、外分析工作的层面上,得出了湖南地区潜在震源区划分的原则和依据,并对7种划分的方案进行了对比,最后提出了湖南省抗倒塌地震区划预编原则.这一结果对相类似的中国大陆东部地区地震区划工作具有一定的指导意义.     

中强地震活动地区地震区划重要性及关键技术进展

本文分析了中强地震活动地区的地震灾害特点,指出了加强中强地震活动地区地震区划的重要性,回顾了中强地震活动地区的地震活动性参数确定、潜在震源区确定、地震动衰减关系等方面的研究进展,并对主要技术环节的方法改进提出了建议。     

The Relationship Among Bedrock Seismic Ground Motion Parameters with Different Exceedance Probabilities in the Panxi Area

Based on the calculation of the bedrock effective peak acceleration (EPA) zoning map in the Panxi area, the ratios of EPA with exceedance probabilities of 63%, 5%, 3%, 2% and 1% over 50 years to that of 10% in 50 years are 0.302, 1.30, 1.55, 1.76 and 2.14, respectively. The seismic effect will be conservative and safe if taking this zoning map as the earthquake-resistant fortification level and following the relevant rules of the Code for Seismic Design of Buildings (GBJ11-89) to calculate the seismic effect. Furthermore, the main factors that influence the A10/A63 ratios have been found to be the attenuation relationship of seismic ground motion, the division of seismic potential source regions and the seismicity parameters. These achievements are helpful to the spreading and applying of the zoning map.     

Seismic hazard assessment for derivation of earthquake scenarios in Risk-UE

The main features of the Risk-UE project approach to assessing the ground-shaking (and related hazards) distribution within urban areas are described, as a basis for developing seismic damage scenarios for European cities. Emphasis was placed in the project on adoption of homogeneous criteria in the quantitative treatment of seismicity and in constructing the ground-shaking scenarios, despite wide differences in amount and quality of data available for the cities involved. The initial steps of the approach include treatment of the regional seismotectonic setting and the geotechnical zonation of the urban area, while the hazard assessment itself takes the form of both a deterministic analysis, and of a probabilistic, constant-hazard spectra analysis. Systematic 1D site response analyses were used, mostly in the softer soil zones, to modify (when needed) the obtained ground motion maps. Earthquake induced hazard effects, such as liquefaction and landsliding, are also briefly dealt with at the end.     

Estimation of Coda Wave Attenuation for the National Capital Region, Delhi, India Using Local Earthquakes

Attenuation of seismic waves is very essential for the study of earthquake source parameters and also for ground-motion simulations, and this is important for the seismic hazard estimation of a region. The digital data acquired by 16 short-period seismic stations of the Delhi Telemetric Network for 55 earthquakes of magnitude 1.5 to 4.2, which occurred within an epicentral distance of 100 km in an area around Delhi, have been used to estimate the coda attenuation Q_c. Using the Single Backscattering Model, the seismograms have been analyzed at 10 central frequencies. The frequency dependence average attenuation relationship Q_c = 142f ^1.04 has been attained. Four Lapse-Time windows from 20 to 50 seconds duration with a difference of 10 seconds have been analyzed to study the lapse time dependence of Q_c. The Q_c values show that frequency dependence (exponent n) remains similar at all the lapse time window lengths. While the change in Q₀ values is significant, change in Q₀ with larger lapsetime reflects the rate of homogeneity at the depth. The variation of Q_c indicates a definitive trend from west to east in accordance with the geology of the region.     

华北地区地震危险性分析和地面运动预测的一致性方法

利用华北地区地震活动性资料,建立了地震危险性计算的一致性模型.在此模型的基础上,得出了北京、天津、唐山和济南等7个城市未来2500年内地震的时空强度分布,并计算了2500年回复周期的地震动峰值加速度(PGA).结果表明,唐山和太原的PGA最大(>0.2g),石家庄和北京次之(≈0.17g).对华北地区2500年地震记录的正演计算结果表明,太原和唐山地区的潜在地震危险最有可能来源于震级在6.0～7.0、震中距离在12～15km的地震活动;而北京、天津和石家庄地区则可能来源于震级在5.5～6.0、震中距离在10km左右的地震活动.采用IBC(International Building Code)方法计算后的结果显示,太原、唐山等地区的PGA与2001年我国地震动峰值加速度值基本一致,与此地区的较高地震活动性特征相符.利用随机震源模型,还给出了影响此7个城市的最大地震记录的加速度、速度及位移时程曲线,这对本区工程建筑的抗震性设计以及对救援设施的选址等有重要作用.