Exploring some of the myths of land use change: Can rural to urban migration drive declines in biodiversity?

Forest transition theory describes a reversal in land-use trends for a given area, from a period of net forest area loss, to a period of net forest area gain. Some assume that such forest gain necessarily equates with biodiversity conservation. We question this assumption, based on research conducted in Oaxaca, Mexico. In Oaxaca's northern highlands, low intensity forest use and rotational (milpa) agriculture have led to pronounced spatial heterogeneity in forest structure and composition, and created a high-biodiversity forest-agriculture mosaic. In the Zapotec community of San Juan Evangelista Analco and the Chinantec community of Santiago Comaltepec, as across much of Oaxaca, fewer people are farming; farmers are cultivating less land, working closer to settlements, and growing fewer crop varieties. Widespread agricultural abandonment has initiated unprecedented changes in ecological succession, patch size, and edge effects, which we speculate will be having an impact on the biodiversity of the landscape mosaic. Our work suggests that the decline of land use activity may result in a gradual loss of the forest-agriculture mosaic, leading to localised declines in biodiversity, despite (or because of) extensive forest resurgence. These findings support the view that indigenous cultures in Oaxaca and Mexico should not be seen as an environmental constraint but rather as an agent of landscape renewal that allows for both cultural and biological diversity to flourish, a reality that national and international conservation bodies need to more fully recognise and incorporate into policy.     

Climate change and the incidence of a forest pest in Mediterranean ecosystems: can the North Atlantic Oscillation be used as a predictor?

Many forest pest species strongly depend on temperature in their population dynamics, so that rising temperatures worldwide as a consequence of climatic change are leading to increased frequencies and intensities of insect-pest outbreaks. In the Mediterranean area, the climatic conditions are strongly linked to the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The aim of this work is to analyze the dynamics of the pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa), a severe pest of Pinus species in the Circunmediterranean, throughout a region of southern Spain, in relation to NAO indices. We related the percentage of forest plots with high defoliation by pine processionary moth each year with NAO values for the present and the three previous winters, using generalized linear models with a binomial error distribution. The time series is 16-year long, and we performed analyses for the whole database and for the five main pine species separately. We found a consistent relationship between the response variable and the NAO index. The relationship is stronger with pine species living at medium-high altitudes, such as Aleppo (P. halepensis), black (P. nigra), and Scots (Pinus sylvestris) pine, which show the higher defoliation intensities up to 3?years after a negative NAO phase. The results highlight, for the first time, the usefulness of using global drivers in order to understand the dynamics of pest outbreaks at a regional scale, and they open the window to the development of NAO-based predictive models as an early-warning signal of severe pest outbreaks.     

Heterogeneity-Induced Heat-Flux Patterns in the Convective Boundary Layer: Can they be Detected from Observations and is There a Blending Height?—A Large-Eddy Simulation Study for the LITFASS-2003 Experiment

An understanding of how the convective boundary layer (CBL) is mixed under heterogeneous surface forcing is crucial for the interpretation of area-averaged turbulence measurements. To determine the height and degree to which a complex heterogeneous surface affects the CBL, large-eddy simulations (LES) for two days of the LITFASS-2003 experiment representing two different wind regimes were undertaken. Spatially-lagged correlation analysis revealed the turbulent heat fluxes to be dependent on the prescribed surface flux pattern throughout the entire CBL including the entrainment layer. These findings prompted the question of whether signals induced by surface heterogeneity can be measured by airborne systems. To examine this question, an ensemble of virtual flights was conducted using LES, according to Helipod flight measurements made during LITFASS-2003. The resulting ensemble-averaged heat fluxes indicated a clear dependence on the underlying surface up to the top of the CBL. However, a large scatter between the flux measurements in different ensemble runs was observed, which was the result of insufficient sampling of the largest turbulent eddies. The random and systematic errors based on the integral length scale did not indicate such a large scatter. For the given flight leg lengths, at least 10–15 statistically independent flight measurements were necessary to give a significant estimate of heterogeneity-induced signals in the CBL. The need for ensemble averaging suggests that the observed blending of heterogeneity-induced signals in the CBL can be partly attributed to insufficient averaging.