Discovery of an asteroid and quasi‐satellite in an Earth‐like horseshoe orbit

Abstract— The newly discovered asteroid 2002 AA₂₉ moves in a very Earth‐like orbit that relative to Earth has a unique horseshoe shape and allows transitions to a quasi‐satellite state. This is the first body known to be in a simple heliocentric horseshoe orbit, moving along its parent planet's orbit. It is similarly also the first true co‐orbital object of Earth, since other asteroids in 1:1 resonance with Earth have orbits very dissimilar from that of our planet. When a quasi‐satellite, it remains within 0.2 AU of the Earth for several decades. 2002 AA₂₉ is the first asteroid known to exhibit this behavior. 2002 AA₂₉ introduces an important new class of objects offering potential targets for space missions and clues to asteroid orbit transfer evolution.     

Possible potentially threatening co‐orbiting material of asteroid 2000EE104 identified through interplanetary magnetic field disturbances

Near‐Earth objects (NEOs) with diameters of <300 m are difficult to detect from the Earth with radar or optical telescopes unless and until they approach closely. If they are on collisional courses with the Earth, there is little that can be done to mitigate the considerable damage. Although destructive collisions in space are rare for 1 km diameter bodies and above, once hit by a sizeable impactor, such a NEO can develop a relatively dense cloud of co‐orbiting material in which destructive collisions are relatively frequent. The gas and nanoscale dust released in the destructive collisions can be detected remotely by downstream spacecraft equipped with magnetometers. In this paper, we use such magnetic disturbances to identify regions of near‐Earth space in which high densities of small objects are present. We find that asteroid (138175) 2000EE104 currently may have a cloud of potentially threatening co‐orbiting material. Due to the scattered co‐orbitals, there can be a finite impact probability whenever the Earth approaches the orbit of asteroid 2000EE104, regardless of the position of the asteroid itself.     

A concept for providing warning of earth impacts by small asteroids

The atmospheric detonation of a 17 m-asteroid above Chelyabinsk, Russia on 2013 February 15 shows that even small asteroids can cause extensive damage. Earth-based telescopes have found smaller harmless objects, such as 2008 TC3, a 4 m-asteroid that was discovered 20h before it exploded over northeastern Sudan (Jenniskens, 2009). 2008 TC3 remains the only asteroid discovered before it hit Earth because it approached Earth from the night side, where it was observed by large telescopes searching for near-Earth objects (NEO’s). The larger object that exploded over Chelyabinsk approached Earth from the day side, from too close to the Sun to be detected from Earth. A sizeable telescope in an orbit about the Sun-Earth L1 (SE-L1) libration point could find objects like the “Chelyabinsk” asteroid approaching approximately from the line of sight to the Sun about a day before Earth closest approach. Such a system would have the astrometric accuracy needed to determine the time and impact zone for a NEO on a collision course. This would give at least several hours, and usually 2–4 days, to take protective measures, rather than the approximately two-minute interval between the flash and shock wave arrival that occurred in Chelyabinsk. A perhaps even more important reason for providing warning of these events, even smaller harmless ones that explode high in the atmosphere with the force of an atomic bomb, is to prevent mistaking such an event for a nuclear attack that could trigger a devastating nuclear war. A concept using a space telescope similar to that needed for an SE-L1 monitoring satellite, is already conceived by the B612 Foundation, whose planned Sentinel Space Telescope could find nearly all 140 m and larger NEO’s, including those in orbits mostly inside the Earth’s orbit that are hard to find with Earth-based telescopes, from a Venus-like orbit (Lu, 2013). Few modifications would be needed to the Sentinel Space Telescope to operate in a SE-L1 orbit, 0.01 AU from Earth towards the Sun, to find most asteroids larger than about 5 meters that approach the Earth from the solar direction. The spacecraft would scan 165 square degrees of the sky around the Earth every hour, finding asteroids when they are brightest (small phase angle) as they approach Earth. We will undertake Monte Carlo studies to see what fraction of asteroids 5 m and larger approaching from the Sun might be found by such a mission, and how much warning time might typically be expected. Also, we will check the overall coverage for all Earth-approaching NEO’s, including ground-based observations and observations by the recently-launched NEOSSat, which may best fill any gaps in coverage between that provided by an SE-L1 telescope and ground-based surveys. Many of the objects as large as 50 m, like the one that created Meteor Crater in Arizona, will not be found by current NEO surveys, while they would usually be seen by this possible mission even if they approached from the direction of the Sun. We should give better warning for future “Bolts out of the blue.”     

Delta-v requirements for earth co-orbital rendezvous missions

Earth co-orbital asteroids present advantages as potential targets for future asteroid rendezvous missions. Their prolonged proximity to Earth facilitates communication, while their Earth-like orbits mean a steady flux of solar power and no significant periodic heating and cooling of the spacecraft throughout the course of the mission. Theoretical studies show that low-inclination co-orbital orbits are more stable than high-inclination orbits. As inclination is the most significant indicator of low delta-v rendezvous orbits, there is the potential for a large population of easily accessible asteroids, with favorable engineering requirements. This study first looks at phase-independent rendezvous orbits to a large number of objects, then looks in more detail at the phase-dependent orbits to the most favorable objects. While rendezvous orbits to co-orbital objects do not have a low delta-v necessarily, some objects present energy requirements significantly less than previous rendezvous missions. Currently we find no ideal co-orbital asteroids for rendezvous missions, although theoretical Earth Trojans present very low-energy requirements for rendezvous.     

Observations of comet Churyumov-Solodovnikov and investigation of its orbital motion

We investigate several parts of the process of migration of small bodies to the Earth from the asteroid and transneptunian belts. The obtained characteristic times up to collisions of near-Earth objects with the Earth are less than those obtained by other scientists.     

Migration of small bodies in the solar system

We investigate several parts of the process of migration of small bodies to the Earth from the asteroid and transneptunian belts. The obtained characteristic times up to collisions of near-Earth objects with the Earth are less than those obtained by other scientists.     

The OSIRIS‐REx target asteroid (101955) Bennu: Constraints on its physical,geological, and dynamical nature from astronomical observations

We review the results of an extensive campaign to determine the physical, geological, and dynamical properties of asteroid (101955) Bennu. This investigation provides information on the orbit, shape, mass, rotation state, radar response, photometric, spectroscopic, thermal, regolith, and environmental properties of Bennu. We combine these data with cosmochemical and dynamical models to develop a hypothetical timeline for Bennu's formation and evolution. We infer that Bennu is an ancient object that has witnessed over 4.5 Gyr of solar system history. Its chemistry and mineralogy were established within the first 10 Myr of the solar system. It likely originated as a discrete asteroid in the inner Main Belt approximately 0.7–2 Gyr ago as a fragment from the catastrophic disruption of a large (approximately 100‐km), carbonaceous asteroid. It was delivered to near‐Earth space via a combination of Yarkovsky‐induced drift and interaction with giant‐planet resonances. During its journey, YORP processes and planetary close encounters modified Bennu's spin state, potentially reshaping and resurfacing the asteroid. We also review work on Bennu's future dynamical evolution and constrain its ultimate fate. It is one of the most Potentially Hazardous Asteroids with an approximately 1‐in‐2700 chance of impacting the Earth in the late 22nd century. It will most likely end its dynamical life by falling into the Sun. The highest probability for a planetary impact is with Venus, followed by the Earth. There is a chance that Bennu will be ejected from the inner solar system after a close encounter with Jupiter. OSIRIS‐REx will return samples from the surface of this intriguing asteroid in September 2023.     

Peculiarities of the motion of asteroid 99942 Apophis

The Apophis asteroid attracted the attention of scientists immediately after its discovery in 2004, because the initially determined orbit of this asteroid assumes a possible collision with Earth in April 2029. The size of Apophis is about several hundred meters, and its collision with Earth might result in a large regional or even global catastrophe. At present, the trajectory of Apophis has been calculated more accurately, and a collision in 2029 has ruled out; the asteroid will pass Earth at a distance of about 37 000 km from its center. However, close approaches or collisions are possible after 2029, including the most probable in 2036. The risk of collision in 2036 is well known and actively examined by the scientists. In this study, we consider the peculiarities of the asteroid motion associated with its approach in 2029 and with a possible close approach in 2036. The trajectories scatter during the approaches and the loss of accuracy is associated with these scatterings. As a result, the trajectory of Apophis may become nondeterministic after 2036; that is, it cannot now be determined unambiguously. Although such events are very unlikely, it is interesting to examine a variety of alternative variants of Apophis’ close approaches and collisions with Earth immediately after 2036. The effects of small variations in the asteroid velocity at different moments in time after its impact with a certain mass are discussed.     

Asteroid families: Recent results and present scenario

After several decades of frustrating results showing a generally poor agreement among different asteroid family classifications, recent studies based on high accuracy proper elements, as well as on objective statistical methods of cluster analysis have largely improved the situation. Now, a number of asteroid families have been recognized on the basis of different methods of cluster analysis, using asteroid proper elements data sets computed by means of different theories. For these reasons, they should be considered of very high reliability. Moreover, spectroscopic observations confirm in some cases these results, indicating surface compositions of the family members in agreement with a geochemically plausible parent body. However, in particular zones of the belt, like the Flora region, further efforts should be performed in order to establish the real consistence of the resulting clusterings of objects. In addition, the size distribution and the taxonomic types of some well established families seem to indicate particular features of the family sample when compared with the field objects. We recall that asteroid families, in the framework of asteroid collisional evolution, are of the highest importance for understanding the mechanisms of injection of fragments into the Earth-crossing zone through mean-motion and secular resonances and, as a consequence, for evaluating the impact rate on Earth of asteroidal objects.     

Easily retrievable objects among the NEO population

Asteroids and comets are of strategic importance for science in an effort to understand the formation, evolution and composition of the Solar System. Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) are of particular interest because of their accessibility from Earth, but also because of their speculated wealth of material resources. The exploitation of these resources has long been discussed as a means to lower the cost of future space endeavours. In this paper, we consider the currently known NEO population and define a family of so-called Easily Retrievable Objects (EROs), objects that can be transported from accessible heliocentric orbits into the Earth’s neighbourhood at affordable costs. The asteroid retrieval transfers are sought from the continuum of low energy transfers enabled by the dynamics of invariant manifolds; specifically, the retrieval transfers target planar, vertical Lyapunov and halo orbit families associated with the collinear equilibrium points of the Sun–Earth Circular Restricted Three Body problem. The judicious use of these dynamical features provides the best opportunity to find extremely low energy Earth transfers for asteroid material. A catalogue of asteroid retrieval candidates is then presented. Despite the highly incomplete census of very small asteroids, the ERO catalogue can already be populated with 12 different objects retrievable with less than 500 m/s of $\Delta v$ Δ v . Moreover, the approach proposed represents a robust search and ranking methodology for future retrieval candidates that can be automatically applied to the growing survey of NEOs.     

SOLAR GASES IN METEORITES: THE ORIGIN OF CHONDRITES AND C1 CARBONACEOUS CHONDRITES

Because of their short cosmic ray exposure ages, chondritic meteorites are more likely to have been broken off from parent bodies in Earth-crossing orbits than from parent bodies in the asteroid belt. The radii of the objects now in the vicinity of the Earth (Apollo and Amor objects) are too small to be unfragmented asteroids of the theory for the origin of gas-rich meteorites of Anders. Because of the abundant evidence for very heavy shock and reheating among L- and H-chondrites, I conclude that the asteroidal origin for the ordinary chondrites is still the most likely. A cometary origin for the CI chondrites is examined. Regolith and megaregolith do not necessarily have to be formed by impacts on the cometary nucleus. The short-period comet Encke receives about 1/10 the solar-wind flux of a belt asteroid at 2.5 AU in its present orbit. The thickness of the megaregolith (C1 chondrites) is estimated between 0.1 and 0.3 km. Stirring of the megaregolith without substantial loss of dust from the comet might occur when the comet is transitional between “active” and “dead.” The consolidation of C1- “dust” into rock is somewhat problematic, but if liquid water and water vapor have played a role, then a crust rich in solar gases might form in the outer regions of a comet. A testable alternative explanation is suggested, namely that the solar gases in the C1 chondrites do not come from the Sun.     

OpenOrb: Open‐source asteroid orbit computation software including statistical ranging

Abstract— We are making an open‐source asteroid orbit computation software package called OpenOrb publicly available. OpenOrb is built on a well‐established Bayesian inversion theory, which means that it is to a large part complementary to orbit‐computation packages currently available. In particular, OpenOrb is the first package that contains tools for rigorously estimating the uncertainties resulting from the inverse problem of computing orbital elements using scarce astrometry. In addition to the well‐known least‐squares method, OpenOrb also contains both Monte‐Carlo (MC) and Markov‐Chain MC (MCMC; Oszkiewicz et al. [2009]) versions of the statistical ranging method. Ranging allows the user to obtain sampled, non‐Gaussian orbital‐element probability‐density functions and is therefore optimized for cases where the amount of astrometry is scarce or spans a relatively short time interval. Ranging‐based methods have successfully been applied to a variety of different problems such as rigorous ephemeris prediction, orbital element distribution studies for transneptunian objects, the computation of invariant collision probabilities between near‐Earth objects and the Earth, detection of linkages between astrometric asteroid observations within an apparition as well as between apparitions, and in the rigorous analysis of the impact of orbital arc length and/or astrometric uncertainty on the uncertainty of the resulting orbits. Tools for making ephemeris predictions and for classifying objects based on their orbits are also available in OpenOrb. As an example, we use OpenOrb in the search for candidate retrograde and/or high‐inclination objects similar to 2008 KV₄₂ in the known population of transneptunian objects that have an observational time span shorter than 30 days.     

The complex exposure histories of the Pitts and Horse Creek iron meteorites: Implications for meteorite delivery models

Abstract— The concentrations of cosmogenic radionuclides and noble gases in Pitts (IAB) and Horse Creek (ungrouped) provide unambiguous evidence that both irons have a complex exposure history with a first‐stage irradiation of 100–600 Myr under high shielding, followed by a second‐stage exposure of ?1 Myr as small objects. The first‐stage exposure ages of ?100 Myr for Horse Creek and ?600 Myr for Pitts are similar to cosmic‐ray exposure ages of other iron meteorites, and most likely represent the Yarkovsky orbital drift times of irons from their parent bodies in the main asteroid belt to one of the nearby chaotic resonance zones. The short second‐stage exposure ages indicate that collisional debris from recent impact events on their precursor objects was quickly delivered to Earth. The short delivery times suggests that the recent collision events occurred while the precursor objects of Horse Creek and Pitts were either very close to the chaotic resonance zones or already in Earth‐crossing orbits. Since the cosmogenic noble gas records of Horse Creek and Pitts indicate a minimum radius of a few meters for the precursor objects, but do not exclude km‐sized objects, we conclude that these irons may represent fragments of two near‐Earth asteroids, 3103 Eger and 1986 DA, respectively. Finally, we used the cosmogenic nuclide concentrations in Horse Creek, which contains 2.5 wt% Si, to test current model calculations for the production of cosmogenic ¹⁰Be, ²⁶Al, and neonisotopes from iron, nickel, and silicon.     

Orbit Determination of the Asteroid (469219) Kamoòalewa and Its Error Analysis

As an Earth co-orbital asteroid, (469219) Kamoòalewa is a near earth object (NEO) with high value of research, and one of the targets explored by the first Chinese asteroid exploration mission. Given its orbit characteristics, we build a refined dynamical model for this asteroid, in which the effects induced by nonspherical gravitational fields of the Sun, the Earth, and the Moon are combined. On the basis of the dynamical model of the asteroid (469219) Kamoòalewa, its orbit is determined with optical data from 2004 to 2018 available on the Minor Planet Center (MPC) database. The root mean square error of post-fit residuals is about 0.2 arc second (comparable with that of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)/Horizons), and the post-fit residuals of optical observations in 2004 are decreased. At the end, we implement error analysis on the asteroid (469219) Kamoòalewa's orbit in detail, and also predict its orbit error at the time interval between 2020 and 2025.     

Evidence-based robust design of deflection actions for near Earth objects

This paper presents a novel approach to the robust design of deflection actions for near Earth objects (NEO). In particular, the case of deflection by means of solar-pumped laser ablation is studied here in detail. The basic idea behind laser ablation is that of inducing a sublimation of the NEO surface, which produces a low thrust thereby slowly deviating the asteroid from its initial Earth threatening trajectory. This work investigates the integrated design of the space-based laser system and the deflection action generated by laser ablation under uncertainty. The integrated design is formulated as a multi-objective optimisation problem in which the deviation is maximised and the total system mass is minimised. Both the model for the estimation of the thrust produced by surface laser ablation and the spacecraft system model are assumed to be affected by epistemic uncertainties (partial or complete lack of knowledge). Evidence Theory is used to quantify these uncertainties and introduce them in the optimisation process. The propagation of the trajectory of the NEO under the laser-ablation action is performed with a novel approach based on an approximated analytical solution of Gauss’ variational equations. An example of design of the deflection of asteroid Apophis with a swarm of spacecraft is presented.     

Optimum trajectories for spacecraft mission to asteroid Apophis with a return to the Earth

A topical task for astronautics is to prepare a mission to the asteroid Apophis that is approaching the Earth. Determination of energetically favorable trajectories for a spacecraft involved in this mission with a return to the Earth has been considered. Two possible variants of engines for this mission are analyzed. The first variant employs electric engines with low jet thrust, while the second variant employs a spacecraft accelerated and controlled by only high-thrust engines. It is shown that both variants can be used in the mission to Apophis, but the use of electric engines with low thrust allows the project characteristics to be significantly improved.     

Constraining the orbits of small solar system bodies using spectroscopic Doppler shift measurements – a preliminary study

In this short paper we examine whether the measurement of Doppler shifts in the solar light reflected off an asteroid surface may improve the accuracy of the determined orbit. Our results suggest it will be worthwhile to use high‐resolution spectrographs, of the exoplanet‐hunting type, to measure those Doppler shifts. Spectroscopic Doppler shifts might improve the accuracy of Earth‐impact predictions, help to recover “lost” near‐Earth objects, and may also significantly enhance the knowledge about dynamics of the Kuiper belt. Future high‐resolution spectrographs on the VLT and the E‐ELT may thus have an important role in studies of Solar‐System dynamics and kinematics. (© 2015 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

A survey of orbits of co-orbitals of Mars

Many asteroids with a semimajor axis close to that of Mars have been discovered in the last several years. Potentially some of these could be in 1:1 resonance with Mars, much as are the classic Trojan asteroids with Jupiter, and its lesser-known horseshoe companions with Earth. In the 1990s, two Trojan companions of Mars, 5261 Eureka and 1998 VF₃₁, were discovered, librating about the L₅ Lagrange point, 60° behind Mars in its orbit. Although several other potential Mars Trojans have been identified, our orbital calculations show only one other known asteroid, 1999 UJ₇, to be a Trojan, associated with the L₄ Lagrange point, 60° ahead of Mars in its orbit. We further find that asteroid 36017 (1999 ND₄₃) is a horseshoe librator, alternating with periods of Trojan motion. This asteroid makes repeated close approaches to Earth and has a chaotic orbit whose behavior can be confidently predicted for less than 3000 years. We identify two objects, 2001 HW₁₅ and 2000 TG₂, within the resonant region capable of undergoing what we designate “circulation transition”, in which objects can pass between circulation outside the orbit of Mars and circulation inside it, or vice versa. The eccentricity of the orbit of Mars appears to play an important role in circulation transition and in horseshoe motion. Based on the orbits and on spectroscopic data, the Trojan asteroids of Mars may be primordial bodies, while some co-orbital bodies may be in a temporary state of motion.     

On the Trajectories of Asteroid Encounters with the Earth for 2015 RN35 and Apophis

A great number of probable encounters of asteroid 2015 RN35 with the Earth have been found; many of them were unknown earlier. The main characteristics and properties of the corresponding trajectories have been obtained. Probable impacts of the asteroid Apophis with the Earth are also discussed. The results suggest that the multitudes of potential impacts of hazardous asteroids with the Earth can be and must be analyzed in more detail. Such an analysis is required to plan and implement the measures on preventing the asteroid impact hazard.     

How precise is the orbit of asteroid (99942) Apophis and how probable is its collision with the Earth in 2036–2037?

The nearest in time close approach of potentially hazardous asteroid (99942) Apophis with the Earth will take place on April 13, 2029, when the minimum distance of the asteroid from the Earth’s center will be as small as 38 000 km. Such a close approach will result in substantial transformation of the asteroid’s orbit. The value of the perturbations depends on the minimum distance between the bodies during the approach. Among possible transformations of the orbit are those which result in new dangerous approaches and even in probable Apophis collisions with the Earth starting from 2036. At present, at least four solutions are known for the Apophis orbit which were obtained using all radar and most of available optical observations. The procedures of assigning weights to conditional equations and the models of the asteroid’s motion have differed to some extent when finding these solutions. Of considerable interest is the comparison of the found orbital parameters with the estimates of their accuracy, since small distinctions in their values result in considerable distinctions in the forecast of Apophis’ motion after 2029 and beyond. It is shown in the paper that the estimates of the probability of an Apophis collision with the Earth in 2036 differ by some orders of magnitude, according to various solutions. The influence of factors which were disregarded in the models of motion even more increases the uncertainty in forecasting the motion after 2029. More accurate forecasting can be achieved as a result of additional optical and, to a greater extent, a series of radar observations in 2013 and then in 2020–2021, and/or as a result of processing radio signals of the transmitter delivered to the Apophis surface or to the orbit of its artificial satellite, as it was proposed in a number of papers.