Evolution of comet orbits under the perturbing influence of the giant planets and nearby stars

The orbital evolution of 500 hypothetical comets during 10⁹ years is studied numerically. It is assumed that the birthplace of such comets was the region of Uranus and Neptune from where they were deflected into very elongated orbits by perturbations of these planets. Then, we adopted the following initial orbital elements: perihelion distances between 20 and 30 AU, inclinations to the ecliptic plane smaller than 20°, and semimajor axes from 5 × 10³ to 5 × 10⁴ AU. Gravitational perturbations by the four giant planets and by hypothetical stars passing at distances from the Sun smaller than 5 × 10⁵ AU are considered. During the simulation, somewhat more than 50% of the comets were lost from the solar system due to planetary or stellar perturbations. The survivors were removed from the planetary region and left as members of what is generally known as the cometary cloud. At the end of the studied period, the semimajor axes of the surviving comets tend to be concentrated in the interval 2 × 10⁴ < a < 3 × 10⁴ AU. The orbital planes of the comets with initial $\text{a ≧ 3 × 10}{}^4\text{AU}$ acquired a complete randomization while the others still maintain a slight predominance of direct orbits. In addition, comet orbits with final a < 6 × 10⁴AU preserve high eccentricities with an average value greater than 0.8 Most “new” comets from the sample entering the region interior to Jupiter's orbit had already registered earlier passages through the planetary region. By scaling up the rate of paritions of hypothetical new comets with the observed one, the number of members of the cometary cloud is estimated to be about 7 × 10¹⁰ and the conclusion is drawn that Uranus and Neptune had to remove a number of comets ten times greater.     

Dynamical and collisional evolution of Halley-type comets

The number of observed Halley-type comets is hundreds of times less than predicted by models (Levison, H.F., Dones, L., Duncan, M.J. [2001]. Astron. J. 121, 2253–2267). In this paper we investigate the impact of collisions with planetesimals on the evolution of Halley-type comets. First we compute the dynamical evolution of a sub-set of 21 comets using the Mercury integrator package over 100 Myr. The dynamical lifetime is determined to be of the order of 10⁵–10⁶ years in agreement with previous work. The collisional probability of Halley-type comets colliding with known asteroids, a simulated population of Kuiper-belt objects, and planets, is calculated using a modified, Öpik-based collision code. Our results show that the catastrophic disruption of the cometary nucleus has a very low probability of occurring, and disruption through cumulative minor impacts is concluded to be negligible. The dust mantle formed from ejected material falling back to the comet’s surface is calculated to be less than a few centimeters thick, which is insignificant compared to the mantle formed by volatile depletion, while planetary encounters were found to be a negligible disruption mechanism.     

Dynamical evolution of the Oort cloud: I. A Monte Carlo simulation

We have studied the long-time dynamical evolution of a population of comets surrounding the Solar System at a large distance. Orbital changes are caused by random passing stars. We first emphasize the need for a new simulation because of the lack of completeness of previous analytical and numerical studies. Then the solar neighborhood is modeled by a sphere of 1 pc in radius, which stars cross at random in direction and distance. The geometry of the encounters allows us to compute the impulse gained by the star and the Sun, in the context of an impact approximation. Then we determine the change of orbital elements for a population of comets and follow the evolution of the frequency distribution for the five Keplerian elements. Clouds are selected in such a way that we test the two main hypotheses for the origin of the Oort cloud, and also the regions of stability in an aphelion-eccentricity diagram. We show that stellar perturbations randomize the cloud and prevent one from inferring the initial cloud configuration from the current distribution. Clouds are depleted by the diffusion of comets into the planetary regions, where they become planet-influenced comets or are ejected from the Solar System. The diffusion of aphelion toward interstellar regions proves to be the major source of cometary loss. Direct ejection to hyperbolic orbits amounts to 9% of the originally population over the age of the Solar System. Finally the current and original cloud populations are estimated at 1.8 × 10¹² and 2 × 10¹³ comets and we discuss these results.     

A former asteroidal planet as the origin of comets

The idea of a missing planet between Mars and Jupiter has been with us since the formulation of the Titius-Bode law. The discovery of the asteroid belt in that location led to speculation about a planetary breakup event. Both ideas remained conjectures until Ovenden's finding in 1972, from which it could be derived that the mass of the missing planet was about 90 Earth masses and that its breakup was astronomically recent. Apparently much of that mass was blown out of the solar system during the disruption of the planet. Because of the action of planetary perturbations, only two types of orbits of surviving fragments could remain at present-asteroid orbits and once-around very-long-period elliptical orbits. Objects in the latter type of orbit are known to exist-the very-long-period comets. A large number of these are on elliptical trajectories with periods of revolution of 5 million years; yet they are known to have made no more than one revolution in an orbit passing close to the Sun. By direct calculation it is possible to predict the distribution of the orbital elements of objects moving on long-period ellipses which might have originated in a breakup event in the asteroid belt 5 million years ago. The comet orbits have the predicted distribution in every case where a measure is possible. Some of the distribution anomalies, such as a bias in the directions of perihelion passage, are statistically strong and would be difficult to explain in any other uncontrived way. In addition, a relative deficiency of orbits with perihelia less than 1 AU indicates that the comets must have had small perihelion distances since their origin, rather than that they have been perturbed into small perihelion orbits from a distant “cloud” of comets by means of stellar encounters. The comet orbital data lead to the conclusion that all comets originated in a breakup event in the asteroid belt (5.5±0.6) × 10⁶ years ago. Asteroid and meteoritic evidence can now be interpreted in a way which not only is supportive but also provides fresh insights into understanding their physical, chemical, and dynamical properties. Particularily noteworthy are the young cosmic-ray exposure ages of meteorites, evidence of a previous high-temperature/pressure environment and of chemical differentiation of the parent body, and compositional similarities among comets, asteroids, and meteorites. Certain “explosion signatures” in asteroid orbital element distributions are likewise indicative. Tektites may also have originated in the same event; but if so, there are important implications regarding the absolute accuracy of certain geological dating methods. Little is known about possible planetary breakup mechanisms of the requisite type, though some speculations are offered. In any case, the asteroid belt is an existing fact; and the arguments presented here that a large planet did disintegrate 5 million years ago must be judged on their merits, even in the absence of a suitable theory of planetary explosions.     

A probability of encounter with interstellar comets and the likelihood of their existence

A theory of the probability of encounter of the Sun with an interstellar comet at a distance comparable to the Earth-Sun distance is formulated, and a general expression is derived establishing the relationship among the influx rate of interstellar comets, the perihelion distance, the space density of the comets, the Maxwellian distribution of comet velocities in the interstellar cloud, and the cloud's systematic velocity relative to the Sun. The fact that no comet with a strongly hyperbolic orbit has so far been observed is used to determine an upper limit of 6 × 10^?4 solar masses per cubic parsec (4 × 10^?26 gcm^?3) for the space density of interstellar comets. The theoretical distribution of semimajor axes of interstellar comets is derived to show that a strong hyperbolic excess must be present in the orbits of a majority of interstellar comets regardless of the dynamical characteristics of the comet cloud, except when the cloud is moving along with the Sun and the distribution of individual velocities has a very low dispersion. This case, however, implies a possibility of capture by the Sun and thus becomes a problem of an Oort-type cloud.     

Transneptunian object 2003 UB 313 as a source of comets

The possibility of interrelation between long-period comets and 2003 UB 313, a recently discovered large Kuiper Belt body, is investigated. For this purpose, 78 objects crossing the plane of motion of this body at distances from 37.8 to 97.6 AU have been selected from 860 long-period comets. The overpopulation of comets with this characteristic is also considered. The plane of motion of 2003 UB 313 is compared with the orbital planes of other objects in number of comet crossings in the specified distance interval or in some parts of it. A statistically significant overpopulation of elliptic and intermediate comets with the corresponding orbital nodes has been established. Recently discovered and absolutely faint comets show the best effect in this sense. The same is also true for comets with osculating eccentricities e < 1. A similar result is also obtained for comets with “original” a ^?1 > 0.010000. It is hypothesized that the 2003 UB 313 family is present among the 78 comets. Four of them have aphelion distances from 37.8 to 97.6 AU. An ellipticity is traceable in the distribution of some of the 78 distant nodes. This may be considered as a further argument for the suggested hypothesis. Generally, the body 2003 UB 313 may be assumed to play a prominent role in injecting observable comets from the transneptunian region     

Canonical Elements for Öpik Theory

The purpose of this paper is to find a set of canonical elements to use within the framework of Öpik theory of close encounters of a small body with a planet (Öpik, Interplanetary Encounters, 1976). Since the small body travels along a planetocentric hyperbola during the close approach and Öpik formulas are valid, without approximations, only at collision, we derive a set of canonical elements for hyperbolic collision orbits (eccentricity e → 1⁺, semi-major axis a fixed) and then we introduce the unperturbed velocity of the small body and the distance covered along the asymptote as a new canonically conjugate pair of orbital elements. An interesting result would be to get a canonical set containing the coordinates in the Target Plane (TP), useful for the analysis of the future encounters: in the last part we prove that this is not possible.     

Orbital element distributions in the Oort cloud

In this paper we consider orbital element distributions for comets moving on admissible orbits in the Oort cloud and distributions for some functions that depend on the orbital elements. Moreover, we find the probability of an event that an arbitrarily chosen admissible orbit belongs to the set (r) of orbital elements and the distribution of circular velocities in the cloud.     

The Role of Giant Molecular Clouds in the Evolution of the Oort Comet Cloud

We estimated the gravitational influence of giant molecular clouds passing near the Solar system on the orbital evolution of Oort cloud comets. We performed a comparative analysis of the accuracies of the following two methods of allowance for the perturbations from giant molecular clouds: the impulse approximation and numerical integration. The impulse approximation yields fairly accurate estimates of the change in the energy of Oort cloud comets and the probability of their ejection under the influence of a molecular cloud if the path of the Solar system does not cross its boundary and if the molecular cloud may be treated as a point perturbing mass. The comet survival probability in the Oort cloud depends significantly on the internal structure of the perturbing molecular cloud and the impact parameter of the encounter. The most massive injection of comets into the planetary region and their ejection from the Oort cloud take place if the Solar system passes through a giant molecular cloud composed of several high-mass condensations. In this case, most of the comets injected into the planetary region were initially comets of the inner Oort cloud (a 10^–4 AU) with high orbital eccentricities.     

A model of the galactic tidal interaction with the oort comet cloud

We consider a model of the in situ Oort cloud which is isotropic with a random distrihution of perihelia directions and angular momenta. The energy distribution adopted has a continuous range of values appropriate for long-period (>200 yr) comets. Only the tidal torque of the Galaxy is included as a perturbation of comet orbits and it is approximated to be that due to a quasi-steady state distribution of matter with disk-like symmetry. The time evolution of all orbital elements can be analytically obtained for this case. In particular, the change in the perihelion distance per orbit and its dependence on other orbital elements is readily found. We further make the assumption that a comet whose perihelion distance was beyond 15 AU during its last passage through the Solar System would have orbit parameters that are essentially unchanged by planetary perturbations. Conversely, if the prior passage was inside 15 AU we assume that planetary perturbations would have removed the comet from the in situ energy distribution accessible by the galactic tide. Comets which had their perihelia changed from beyond 15 AU to within 5 AU in a single orbit are taken to be observable. We are able to track the evolution of 10⁶ comets as they are made observable by the galactic tidal touque. Detailed results are obtained for the predicted distribution of new (0 < 1/ < 10^–4 AU^–1) comets. Further, correlations between orbital elements can be studied. We present predictions of observed distributions and compare them with the random in situ results as well as with the actual observed distributions of class I comets. The predictions are in reasonable agreement with actual observations and, in many cases, are significantly different from random when perihelia directions are separated into galactic northern and southern hemispheres. However the well-known asymmetry in the north-south populations of perihelia remains to be explained. Such an asymmetry is consistent with the dominance of tidal torques today if a major stochastic event produced it in the past since tidal torques are unable to cause the migration of perihelia across the latitude barriers ±26°.6 in the disk model.     

Long-Period Comets and the Oort Cloud

Long-period (LP) comets, Halley-type (HT) comets, and even some comets of the Jupiter family, probably come from the Oort cloud, a huge reservoir of icy bodies that surrounds the solar system. Therefore, these comets become important probes to learn about the distant Oort cloud population. We review the fundamental dynamical properties of LP comets, and what is our current understanding of the dynamical mechanisms that bring these bodies from the distant Oort cloud region to the inner planetary region. Most new comets have original reciprocal semimajor axes in the range2 × 10^-5 < 1/a_orig < 5 × 10^-5AU^-1. Yet, this cannot be taken to represent the actual space distribution of Oort cloud comets, but only the region in the energy space in which external perturbers have the greatest efficiency in bringing comets to the inner planetary region. The flux of Oort cloud comets in the outer planetary region is found to be at least several tens times greater than the flux in the inner planetary region. The sharp decrease closer to the Sun is due to the powerful gravitational fields of Jupiter and Saturn that prevent most Oort cloud comets from reaching the Earth’s neighborhood (they act as a dynamical barrier). A small fraction of ～10^-2 Oort cloud comets become Halley type (orbital periods P < 200 yr), and some of them can reach short-period orbits with P < 20 yr. We analyze whether we can distinguish the latter, very ‘old” LP comets, from comets of the Jupier family coming from the Edgeworth-Kuiper belt.     

Relationship of comets and planets

We analyze our earlier data on the numerical integration of the equations of motion for 274 short-period comets (with the period P<200 yr) on a time interval of 6000 yr. As many as 54 comets had no close approaches to planets, 13 comets passed through the Saturnian sphere of action, and one comet passed through the Uranian sphere of action. The orbital elements of these 68 comets changed by no more than ±3 percent in a space of 6000 yr. As many as 206 comets passed close to Jupiter. We confirm Everhart’s conclusion that Jupiter can capture long-period comets with q = 4–6 AU and i < 9° into short-period orbits. We show that nearly parabolic comets cross the solar system mainly in the zone of terrestrial planets. No relationship of nearly parabolic comets and terrestrial planets was found for the epoch of the latest apparition of comets. Guliev’s conjecture about two trans-Plutonian planets is based on the illusory excess of cometary nodes at large heliocentric distances. The existence of cometary nodes at the solar system periphery turns out to be a solely geometrical effect.     

Orientation-dependent effects in Oort's theory of comet origin II. Anisotropies in the distribution of long-period comet orbits

The statistical significance of anisotropies in the distribution of orbital orientations among the long-period and nearly parabolic comets is evaluated. It is suggested that these anisotropies are not the result of observational selection effects. A numerical model for the distribution of orbital orientations is constructed, based on Oort's theory of comet origin and the assumption that the observed anisotropies are caused by multiple planetary perturbations over the course of many perihelion passages. The model, which is restricted to comets with peri-helion distances less than 0.3AU, does not predict any significant anisotropies.     

Planet X and the origins of the shower and steady state flux of short-period comets

In the planet X model periodic comet showers are associated with passages of the planet's perihelion and aphelion points through a primordial disk of comets believed to lie beyond the orbit of Neptune. A strong feature of this model is that the required orbital elements and mass of planet X are consistent with independently predicted values based on the residuals in the motions of Uranus and Neptune. Here we present a more extensive analysis of the model taking into account the fact that only those comets scattered directly into the zones of influence of Saturn and Jupiter can contribute to a shower whose duration is consistent with observation (≲ 15 myr). These requirements impose a minimum planetary inclination of ≈25°, which in turn restricts the semimajor axis to be ≲100 AU. A fraction of the comets scattered directly into the zones of influence of Uranus and Neptune will evolve on time scales of ∼10⁸ years into the steady state flux of short-period comets. We find that the absolute numbers of shower and steady state are comparable and compatible with the known terrestrial cratering rate, assuming the existence of long-lived extinct comet cores. Canonical planet X model parameters, deduced in part from the scattering dynamics analysis, are: semimajor axis ≈80 AU, eccentricity ≈0.3, inclination ≈45°, and mass ≈5m_⊕. An analysis is given which suggests that planet X, in its present orbit, can create the requisite density gradient of comets near perihelion and aphelion during the lifetime of the Solar System. The required inclination of planet X's orbit (≳25°) may explain the failure of previous surveys to discover the planet as its present latitude is not likely to be near the ecliptic. It it exists, the best immediate hope of finding planet X is the ongoing IRAS search in the 100-μm band and the full sky optical survey by Shoemaker and Shoemaker. Independent of the question of periodic comet showers, the existence of planet X and the comet disk can readily explain the origin of the steady state flux of short-period comets over a wide range of parameters.     

Long-period comet flux in the planetary region: Dynamical evolution from the Oort cloud

This study analyzes the evolution of 2 × 10⁵ orbits with initial parameters corresponding to the orbits of comets of the Oort cloud under the action of planetary, galactic, and stellar perturbations over 2 × 10⁹ years. The dynamical evolution of comets of the outer (orbital semimajor axes a > 10⁴ AU) and inner (5 × 10³ < a (AU) < 10⁴) parts of the comet cloud is analyzed separately. The estimates of the flux of “new” and long-period comets for all perihelion distances q in the planetary region are reported. The flux of comets with a > 10⁴ AU in the interval 15 AU < q < 31 AU is several times higher than the flux of comets in the region q < 15 AU. We point out the increased concentration of the perihelia of orbits of comets from the outer cloud, which have passed several times through the planetary system, in the Saturn-Uranus region. The maxima in the distribution of the perihelia of the orbits of comets of the inner Oort cloud are located in the Uranus-Neptune region. “New” comets moving in orbits with a < 2 × 10⁴ AU and arriving at the outside of the planetary system (q > 25 AU) subsequently have a greater number of returns to the region q < 35 AU. The perihelia of the orbits of these comets gradually drift toward the interior of the Solar System and accumulate beyond the orbit of Saturn. The distribution of the perihelia of long-period comets beyond the orbit of Saturn exhibits a peak. We discuss the problem of replenishing the outer Oort cloud by comets from the inner part and their subsequent dynamical evolution. The annual rate of passages of comets of the inner cloud, which replenish the outer cloud, in the region q < 1 AU in orbits with a > 10⁴ AU (～ 5.0 × 10^?14 yr^?1) is one order of magnitude lower than the rate of passage of comets from the outer Oort cloud (～ 9.1 × 10^?13 yr^?1).     

Jupiter approaching asteroids and their possibilities for activity

Jupiter‐family comets (JFCs) may often, closely and/or slowly approach Jupiter. A list of their close approaches within 0.21 AU from Jupiter between 1970 and 2030 is presented to determine the typical changes in some of their orbital elements and their relation to any triggered activity. A few JFCs from the list were temporary satellites of Jupiter. There are also several JFCs which originally had asteroidal provisional designations due to their low activity at discovery. But Jupiter is also approached by asteroids. The presented list of their approaches within 0.60 AU from Jupiter between 1960 and 2040, together with their orbital changes can be compared with the list of comets. Some of the orbital changes are large enough to cause an extremely low or short‐lived activity. Usually, quick and dedicated observations by large‐aperture telescopes are missing to confirm or refute it. Currently, the most important cometary candidate among Jupiter approaching asteroids is 2004 FY140. (© 2005 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

On stellar encounters and their effect on cometary orbits in the Oort cloud

We systematically investigate the encounters between the Sun and neighbouring stars and their effects on cometary orbits in the Oort cloud, including the intrinsic one with the star Gl 710 (HIP 89 825), with some implications to stellar and cometary dynamics. Our approach is principally based on the combination of a Keplerian‐rectilinear model of stellar passages and the Hipparcos Catalogue (ESA 1997). Beyond the parameters of encounter, we pay particular attention to the observational errors in parallaxes and stellar velocities, and their propagation in time. Moreover, as a special case of this problem, we consider the collision probability of a star passing very closely to the Sun, taking also into account the mutual gravitational attraction between the stars. In the part dealing with the influence of stellar encounters on the orbital elements of Oort cloud comets, we derive new simple formulae calculating the changes in the cometary orbital elements, expressed as functions of the Jeans impulse formula. These expressions are then applied to calculate numerical values of the element changes caused by close encounters of neighbouring stars with some model comets in the Oort cloud. Moreover, the general condition for an ejection of comets from the cloud effected by a single encounter is derived and discussed.     

New edition of the catalogue of short-period comets

The Institute of Theoretical Astronomy in St. Petersburg and the Astronomical Institute in Bratislava are preparing a new edition of the Catalogue of short-period comets. This edition will be supplemented by short-period comets discovered after the year 1983 and comprises some new features, e. g. the evolution of orbital elements between the years 1750 and 2050, and the perihelion passages of comets within the 1994–2050 years. A new method has been employed for the determination of nongravitational parameters from the osculating elements of a comet based on all its observed returns.The method has been tested on the comets P/Comas Solá and P/Forbes with all returns, except the last one. The results have been compared with the osculating elements of the last return and those used in the old edition of the Catalogue of short-period comets. The new method enables a good prediction of osculating elements for the future, at least for the next return.     

On the hypothesis of the eruption origin of near-parabolic comets

The hypothesis on the genetic connection of near-parabolic comets with Jupiter, Saturn, and the transPlutonian region (5–3000 AU) proposed by E.M. Drobyshevskii is considered. It has been shown that, on average, 5.6 comets per an area of 10⁶ AU² passed through the transPlutonian region during the whole history of observations. Six-hundred nineteen comets crossed the ecliptic at heliocentric distances ranging from 0 to 2 AU. As has been shown, from the total number of 945 near-parabolic comets, eight comets closely approached Jupiter and five closely approached Saturn. The Kreutz comets, 1277 objects, did not approach Jupiter closer than 3 AU. Their minimal distance to Saturn was 5.5 AU. The minimal distance of the Kreutz comets from the edge of the transPlutonian region was 28.8 AU. The analysis led to the conclusion that the concept on the origin of the near-parabolic comets suggested by Drobyshevskii is groundless.     

Orbital evolution of long-period comets I. Trivariate Monte Carlo simulation

The mean orbital evolution of long-period comets for 16 representative initial orbits to short-period comets is calculated by a Monte Carlo method. First, trivariate perturbation distributions of barycentric Kepler energy, total angular momentum, and its z component in single encounters of comets with Jupiter are obtained numerically. Their characteristics are examined in detail and the distributions are found to be simple, symmetric, and easy to handle. Second, utilizing these distributions, we have done trivariate Monte Carlo simulations of the orbital evolution of long-period comets, with special emphasis on high-inclination orbits. About half of the 16 initial orbits are traced up to 5000 returns. For each of these orbits, the mean values of semimajor axis, perihelion distance, and inclination; their standard deviations, survival, and capture rates; as well as time scales of orbital evolution are calculated as functions of return number. Survival rates of the initial orbits with high inclination (～90°) and small perihelion distance (～1–2 AU) have been found to be only two or three times smaller than those of the main-source orbits of short-period comets established quantitatively by Everhart. The time scales of orbitsl evolution of the former, however, are nearly 10 times longer than the latter. There is a general trend that, for smaller perihelion distance, the survival efficiency becomes higher. The results of this paper should be considered a basis for a succeeding paper (Paper II) in which the physical lifetime of comets will be determined, and a comparison with the orbital data will be done.