Southern Westerlies during the last glacial maximum

Vegetation and climate over approximately the past 13,000 yr are reconstructed from fossil pollen in a 9.4-m mire section at Caleta Róbalo on Beagle Channel, Isla Navarino (54°56′S, 67°38′W), southern Tierra del Fuego. Fifty surface samples reflecting modern pollen dispersal serve to interpret the record. Chronologically controlled by nine radiocarbon dates, fossil pollen assemblages are: Empetrum-Gramineae-Gunnera-Tubuliflorae (zone 3b, 13,000–11,850 yr B.P.), Gramineae-Empetrum-assorted minor taxa (zone 3a, 11,850-10,000 yr B.P.), Nothofagus-Gramineae-Tubuliflorae-Polypodiaceae (zone 2, 10,000–5000 yr B.P.), Nothofagus-Empetrum (zone 1b, 5000-3000 yr B.P.), and Empetrum-Nothofagus (zone 1a, 3000-0 yr B.P.). Assemblages show tundra under a cold, dry climate (zone 3), followed by open woodland (zone 2), as conditions became warmer and less dry, and later, with greater humidity and lower temperatures, by closed forest and the spread of mires (zone 1). Comparisons drawn with records from Antarctica, New Zealand, Tasmania, and the subantarctic islands demonstrate broadly uniform conditions in the circumpolar Southern Hemisphere. The influences of continental and maritime antarctic air masses were apparently considerable in Tierra del Fuego during cold late-glacial time, whereas Holocene climate was largely regulated by interplay between maritime polar and maritime tropical air.     

Timing of glaciation and last glacial maximum paleoclimate estimates from the Fish Lake Plateau, Utah

The High Plateaus of Utah include seven separate mountain ranges that supported glaciers during the Pleistocene. The Fish Lake Plateau, located on the eastern edge of the High Plateaus, preserves evidence of at least two glacial advances. Four cosmogenic ³He exposure ages of boulders in an older moraine range from 79 to 159 ka with a mean age of 129 ± 39 ka and oldest ages of 152 ± 3 and 159 ± 5 ka. These ages suggest deposition during the type Bull Lake glaciation and Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS) 6. Twenty boulder exposure ages from four different younger moraines indicate a local last glacial maximum (LGM) of ~ 21.1 ka, coincident with the type Pinedale glaciation and MIS 2. Reconstructed Pinedale-age glaciers from the Fish Lake Plateau have equilibrium-line altitudes ranging from 2950 to 3190 m. LGM summer temperature depressions for the Fish Lake Plateau range from −10.7 to −8.2°C, assuming no change in precipitation. Comparison of the Fish Lake summer temperature depressions to a regional dataset suggests that the Fish Lake Plateau may have had a slight increase (~ 1.5× modern) in precipitation during the LGM. A series of submerged ridges in Fish Lake were identified during a bathymetric survey and are likely Bull Lake age moraines.     

西藏纳木错末次盛冰期以来的古植被、古气候和湖面变化

西藏纳木错湖相沉积的U系、14C年龄和孢粉分析结果表明,纳木错沿岸的拔湖约1.5～8.3m和8.3～15.6m的T1和T2分别形成于末次盛冰期以来约(11.81±0.10)～(4.22±0.09)kaB.P.期间和(28.2±2.8)kaB.P.左右。该套湖相层的孢粉组合、地层和湖岸堤的分布表明,在末次盛冰期期间,纳木错湖面主要波动于拔湖12～20m之间,但湖面最低可达拔湖约8m。区域植被主要为以蒿和莎草科为主、含松和桦的草原。在约11.8～4.2kaB.P.期间,湖面波动于拔湖2～9m之间,区域气候整体较为暖湿。其中全新世大暖期出现在约8.4～4.2kaB.P.期间,气候温暖湿润,区域出现针叶林或针阔叶混交林,气温可能比现今高约5℃,降水量可能比现今多100～200mm,湖面扩张并升高,最高可达拔湖约10m。     

Vegetation and climate during the last glacial maximum in Japan

The Japanese Archipelago was almost entirely covered by coniferous forests during the last glacial maximum. Northern Hokkaido was distinguished by coniferous parkland and tundra vegetation, while southern Hokkaido and northernmost Honshu were covered by northern boreal coniferous forests consisting mainly of Picea jezoensis, Picea glehnii, Abies sachalinensis, and Larix gmelinii; Tsuga was missing from the forest. More diverse boreal forests including species from Sakhalin and northern Japan grew together in northeastern Honshu. Central Honshu and the mountains of southwestern Japan supported subalpine coniferous forests which are now mainly restricted in distribution to the central mountains. Temperate coniferous forests (Picea polita, Abies firma, and Tsuga sieboldii) existed principally in the modern mid-temperate and evergreen laurel-oak forest regions. Haploxylon pine and tree birch were also abundant in the boreal and cool-temperate zones, as was Diploxylon in the southern temperate zone. Significant populations of Fagus were found along the Pacific coasts of Kyushu and Shikoku, but they were too small to be defined as a beech forest zone. Quercetum mixtum (Quercus, Ulmus, and Tilia) was more common in the coastal lowlands of southwestern Japan than those of northeastern Honshu; it was completely eliminated from Hokkaido. The reduced mean August temperature inferred from the floral assemblages showed a latitudinal gradient 20,000 yr ago; it was 8–9°C in northern Hokkaido, 7.7–8.7°C in northernmost Honshu, 7.2–8.4°C in the central mountains, 6.5°C in the Chugoku District, and 5–6°C in Kyushu. The probable annual precipitation ranged from 1050 to 1300 mm along coasts in southwestern Japan during the culmination of the last glaciation.     

Map of vegetation during the last glacial maximum in Japan

A vegetation map reconstructed for the Japanese Archipelago (based upon pollen data from 28 sites and plant macrofossil data from 33 sites) at the time of last glacial maximum shows that coniferous forests covered extensive areas of the land. Boreal conifer forests (dominated by the Picea jezoensis complex, P. glehnii, Abies sachalinensis, A. mariesii, Tsuga diversifolia, and Pinus with Larix gmelinii, though the latter species was confined only to the northern part of northeastern Honshu and Hokkaido) occupied the modern cool-temperature deciduous broadleaf and mid-temperate conifer forest zones, and temperate coniferous forests (mainly Picea maximowiczii, P. polita, P. bicolor, P. koyamai, Abies firma, A. homolepis, Tsuga sieboldii, and Pinus), the present warm-temperate evergreen (laurilignosa) forest zone. Small populations of various broadleaf forest species were scattered in the full-glacial temperate conifer forest mainly along the coastal belt, and the true laurilignosa forest was limited in distribution, occurring only in the paleo-Yaku Peninsula.     

西藏纳木错末次盛冰期以来的古植被、古气候和湖面变化

西藏纳木错湖相沉积的U系、14C年龄和孢粉分析结果表明,纳木错沿岸的拔湖约1.5～8.3m和8.3～15.6m的T1和T2分别形成于末次盛冰期以来约(11.81±0.10)～(4.22±0.09)kaB.P.期间和(28.2±2.8)kaB.P.左右.该套湖相层的孢粉组合、地层和湖岸堤的分布表明,在末次盛冰期期间,纳木错湖面主要波动于拔湖12～20 m之间,但湖面最低可达拔湖约8m.区域植被主要为以蒿和莎草科为主、含松和桦的草原.在约11.8～4.2ka B.P.期间,湖面波动于拔湖2～9m之间,区域气候整体较为暖湿.其中全新世大暖期出现在约8.4～4.2 ka B.P.期间,气候温暖湿润,区域出现针叶林或针阔叶混交林,气温可能比现今高约5℃,降水量可能比现今多100～200mm,湖面扩张并升高,最高可达拔湖约10m.     

Evidence of a two-fold glacial advance during the last glacial maximum in the Tagliamento end moraine system (eastern Alps)

The glacial history of the Tagliamento morainic amphitheater (southeastern Alpine foreland, Italy) during the last glacial maximum (LGM) has been reconstructed by means of a geological survey and drillings, radiocarbon dating and pollen analysis in the amphitheater and in the sandur. Two phases of glacial culmination, separated by a distinct recession, are responsible for glacial landforms and related sediments in the outer part of the amphitheater. The age of the younger advance fits the chronology of the culmination of the last glaciation in the Alps, well established between 24 and 21 cal ka BP (20 to 17.5 ¹⁴C ka BP), whereas the first pulse between 26.5 and 23 cal ka BP (22 to 21 ¹⁴C ka BP), previously undated, was usually related to older (pre-LGM) glaciations by previous authors. Here, the first pulse is the most extensive LGM culmination, but is often buried by the subsequent pulse. The onset and final recession of the late Würm Alpine glaciation in the Tagliamento amphitheater are synchronous with the established global glacial maximum between 30 and 19 cal ka BP. The two-fold LGM glacial oscillation is interpreted as a millennial-scale modulation within the late Würm glaciation, caused by oscillations in inputs of southerly atmospheric airflows related to Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles. Phases of enhanced southerly circulation promoted increased rainfall and ice accumulation in the southern Alps.     

Sub‐millennial climate shifts in the western Mediterranean during the last glacial period recorded in a speleothem from Mallorca,Spain

Very few high‐resolution and directly dated terrestrial archives of the last glacial period exist for the western Mediterranean region, yet this is a key locality for recording sub‐millennial North Atlantic and Mediterranean climate change. Here, we present evidence of effective precipitation changes based on growth history and δ¹³C of calcite in a Mallorcan stalagmite that grew between 112 and 48 ka. Effective precipitation in Mallorca appears to have been sensitive to proximal sea surface temperature variations and at certain times, ca. 76 ka for example, changed rapidly from moist to arid conditions in only a few centuries. A sea‐level highstand during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5a interrupted growth. Regrowth started promptly after this, but effective precipitation decreased markedly for much of the later part of MIS 5a, and also for shorter periods correlative with Heinrich events H8 (ca. 90 ka) and H6 (ca. 65 ka), with growth ceasing during H5 (ca. 48 ka). Arid episodes in Mallorca appear to be expressions of extremely cold periods recorded further north in Europe and occur contemporaneously with rapid decreases in Greenland temperature. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

末次间冰期以来古火对千年及轨道尺度气候和植被变化的响应

火是地球系统的重要组成部分,与气候变化、植被演替关系密切。正确认识自然状态下火-气候-植被之间的耦合关系是理解过去火演化机理、预测未来气候变化下火活动频率和强度的迫切需要。末次间冰期及末次冰消期是现今间冰期的气候相似型,其轨道及千年尺度火与气候、植被演化规律研究可为维持全球升温背景下陆地生态系统的稳定提供重要科学依据。本研究聚焦末次间冰期以来已有古火研究,借助全球炭屑数据库,归纳总结千年及轨道尺度上火对气候和植被变化的响应规律,获得以下主要认识:末次间冰期以来,轨道尺度上火演化趋势整体上与气候变化趋势一致;末次间冰期全球火活动整体高于末次冰期,但波动性较大;全球火活动在D-O旋回暖期增多,D-O旋回冷期及Henrich事件中火活动减少;植被对气候响应的滞后可以解释古火记录对气候旋回的滞后。但由于涵盖末次间冰期的古火记录缺乏,导致末次间冰期时段的古火集成结果存在一定的不确定性。深入理解轨道-亚轨道尺度全球及区域古火演化规律及机制需要更多长时间尺度高质量的古火及古植被记录的支持。     

Paleo-climate of the central European uplands during the last glacial maximum based on glacier mass-balance modeling

During the last glacial maximum (LGM), glaciers existed in scattered mountainous locations in central Europe between the major ice masses of Fennoscandia and the Alps. A positive degree-day glacier mass-balance model is used to constrain paleo-climate conditions associated with reconstructed LGM glacier extents of four central European upland regions: the Vosges Mountains, the Black Forest, the Bavarian Forest, and the Giant Mountains. With reduced precipitation (25–75%), reflecting a drier LGM climate, the modeling yields temperature depressions of 8–15°C. To reproduce past glaciers more severe cooling is required in the west than in the east, indicating a strong west–east temperature anomaly gradient.     

Eastern Mediterranean sea during the last glacial maximum; an 18,000-years B.P. reconstruction

An ecological transfer function based on the distribution of planktonic foraminifera in 66 Mediterranean and 8 North Atlantic surface-sediment samples is used to estimate sea-surface temperatures and salinities for the eastern Mediterranean during the last glacial maximum (18,000 yr B.P.). The present-day distribution of planktonic foraminifera can be explained by four faunal assemblages, each of which has diagnostic environmental preferences. Factor 1 is a tropical-subtropical assemblage; factor 2 is a transitional assemblage; factor 3 is a low-salinity assemblage; and factor 4 is a subpolar assemblage. The geographic distribution of these faunal assemblages reflect the variation in overlying hydrographic conditions. The 18,000-yr B.P. samples were selected based on total faunal stratigraphy, oxygen-isotope stratigraphy, and previously determined radiometric dates for eastern Mediterranean volcanic ash layers. Estimated temperature and salinity patterns show that the greatest change between present-day and 18,000-yr B.P. sea-surface conditions existed in the Aegean Sea and immediately south of Crete. The winter temperature anomaly (18,000 yr B.P.-present) within the Aegean Sea is 6°C cooler than present. In contrast to this, the maximum summer temperature anomaly exists to the south of Crete, where sea-surface temperatures were 4°C cooler than present. Estimated sea-surface salinities also show that the greatest change took place within the Aegean Sea, being 5‰ less saline than present. The estimated temperature and salinity patterns seem to reflect changing drainage patterns during glacial times and the diversion of cool, low-salinity water into the Aegean Sea. The source of this glacial runoff appears to be large freshwater lakes that existed during this time over parts of eastern Europe and western Siberia.     

New estimates of carbon transfer to terrestrial ecosystems between the last glacial maximum and the Holocene

Ice core records of atmospheric CO₂ show an ≈ 80 ppm rise between the last glacial maximum (LGM) and the mid-Holocene during a corresponding world-wide expansion of the terrestrial biomass and changes in ocean chemistry. Therefore, the absolute amount of carbon transferred to the atmosphere, probably from the oceans, remains uncertain. To address this issue, I evaluated changes in terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and isotopic fractionations between the LGM and the mid-Holocene using a process-based terrestrial carbon cycle model forced with two general circulation model (GCM) simulations of each interval. The results indicate that global carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems (vegetation and soils) increased by 668 Gt C during the last glacial–interglacial transition, a value within the range obtained from a revised global carbon isotope mass-balance analysis (550–680 Gt C), and consistent with independent estimates from the marine isotopic record.     

Status of glacial Lake Columbia during the last floods from glacial Lake Missoula

The last floods from glacial Lake Missoula, Montana, probably ran into glacial Lake Columbia, in northeastern Washington. In or near Lake Columbia's Sanpoil arm, Lake Missoula floods dating from late in the Fraser glaciation produced normally graded silt beds that become thinner upsection and which alternate with intervals of progressively fewer varves. The highest three interflood intervals each contain only one or two varves, and about 200–400 successive varves conformably overlie the highest flood bed. This sequence suggests that jökulhlaup frequency progressively increased until Lake Missoula ended, and that Lake Columbia outlasted Lake Missoula. The upper Grand Coulee, Lake Columbia's late Fraser-age outlet, contains a section of 13 graded beds, most of them sandy and separated by varves, that may correlate with the highest Missoula-flood beds of the Sanpoil River valley. The upper Grand Coulee also contains probable correlatives of many of the approximately 200–400 succeeding varves, as do nearby parts of the Columbia River valley. This collective evidence casts doubt on a prevailing hypothesis according to which one or more late Fraser-age floods from Lake Missoula descended the Columbia River valley with little or no interference from Lake Columbia's Okanogan-lobe dam.     

Interhemispheric anti-phasing of rainfall during the last glacial period

We have obtained a high-resolution oxygen isotopic record of cave calcite from Caverna Botuverá (27°13′S, 49°09′W), southern Brazil, which covers most of the last 36 thousand years (ka), with an average resolution of a few to several decades. The chronology was determined with 46 U/Th ages from two stalagmites. Tests for equilibrium conditions show that oxygen isotopic variations are primarily caused by climate change. We interpret our record in terms of meteoric precipitation changes, hence the variability of South American Monsoon (SAM) intensity. The oxygen isotopic profile broadly follows local insolation changes and shows clear millennial-scale variations during the last glacial period with amplitudes as large as 3‰ but with smaller centennial-scale shifts (<1‰) during the Holocene. The overall record is strikingly similar to, but strongly anti-correlated with, a number of records from the Northern Hemisphere.We compared our record to other precisely dated contemporaneous records from Hulu Cave eastern China. Minima in δ¹⁸O (wet periods, intense SAM) at our site are synchronous with maxima in δ¹⁸O (dry periods, weak East Asian Monsoon, EAM) in eastern China (within precise dating errors) and vice versa. This anti-phased precipitation relationship between two low-latitude locations may be interhemispheric in extent, based on comparison with records from other sites. Precipitation anti-phasing may be related to north–south shifts in the mean position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and asymmetry in Hadley circulation in two hemispheres, associated not with seasonal changes as observed today, but with millennial-scale climate shifts. The millennial-scale atmospheric see-saw patterns that we observe could have important controls and feedbacks on climate within hemispheres because of water vapor's greenhouse properties.     

Surface circulation of the Indian Ocean during the last glacial maximum, approximately 18,000 yr B.P.

A seasonal reconstruction of the Indian Ocean during the last glacial maximum (18,000 yr B.P.) reveals that its surface circulation and sea surface temperature patterns were significantly different from the modern Indian Ocean. This reconstruction is based on the planktonic foraminiferal biogeography and estimated sea surface temperatures in 42 Indian Ocean samples. Compared to modern conditions, the polar front was 5° to 10° latitude further north during the last glacial maximum; the Subtropical Convergence was 2° to 5° latitude further north. The West Australian Current was more intense as part of the West Wind Drift was deflected northward along the coast of Australia. The Agulhas Current was cooler and weaker during the summer and more saline and subtropical during the winter. In general, the low latitudes underwent little temperature change. The western Arabian Sea was warmer which implies less upwelling and a weaker Southwest Monsoon. On the average, the Indian Ocean was 1.9°C cooler in February and 1.7°C cooler in August during the last glacial maximum.     

A solution for the northern hemisphere climatic zonation during a glacial maximum

The same model previously used to deduce an acceptable first order picture of the present zonally averaged macroclimate is now solved for the climatic response to the “glacial” surface boundary conditions that prevailed at 18,000 BP in the northern hemisphere. The equilibrium solution obtained gives the distributions with latitude of the mean temperature, wind, humidity, precipitation, evaporation, heat balance, transient baroclinic eddy statistics (i.e., kinetic energy of the meridional wind and meridional flux of heat, momentum, and water vapor), and the energy integrals. In general terms, the solution shows the glacial atmosphere to be colder and drier than at present, with an intensified polar front, stronger mean zonal and poloidal winds, more intense transient baroclinic eddies (storms) transporting heat, momentum and water vapor poleward at higher rates, and reduced precipitation and evaporation. Also evident is an equatorward shift of the climatic zones (as delineated by the mean surface zonal winds, the poloidal motion, and the difference between mean evaporation and precipitation), particularly in higher latitudes. Other properties of the solution, such as the effect of zonal wind changes on the length of the day, are discussed.     

Relative timing of last glacial maximum and late-glacial events in the central tropical Andes

Whether or not tropical climate fluctuated in synchrony with global events during the Late Pleistocene is a key problem in climate research. However, the timing of past climate changes in the tropics remains controversial, with a number of recent studies reporting that tropical ice age climate is out of phase with global events. Here, we present geomorphic evidence and an in-situ cosmogenic ³He surface-exposure chronology from Nevado Coropuna, southern Peru, showing that glaciers underwent at least two significant advances during the Late Pleistocene prior to Holocene warming. Comparison of our glacial-geomorphic map at Nevado Coropuna to mid-latitude reconstructions yields a striking similarity between Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Late-Glacial sequences in tropical and temperate regions.Exposure ages constraining the maximum and end of the older advance at Nevado Coropuna range between 24.5 and 25.3 ka, and between 16.7 and 21.1 ka, respectively, depending on the cosmogenic production rate scaling model used. Similarly, the mean age of the younger event ranges from 10 to 13 ka. This implies that (1) the LGM and the onset of deglaciation in southern Peru occurred no earlier than at higher latitudes and (2) that a significant Late-Glacial event occurred, most likely prior to the Holocene, coherent with the glacial record from mid and high latitudes. The time elapsed between the end of the LGM and the Late-Glacial event at Nevado Coropuna is independent of scaling model and matches the period between the LGM termination and Late-Glacial reversal in classic mid-latitude records, suggesting that these events in both tropical and temperate regions were in phase.     

Sources of Labrador Sea sediments since the last glacial maximum inferred from Nd-Pb isotopes

Pb isotopes have been measured in the clay-size fraction of Late Glacial and Holocene deep-sea sediments recovered from two Labrador Sea piston cores that have been previously analyzed for Nd isotopes. The newly acquired Pb isotopic data allow us to better constrain the different source areas that supplied clay-size material during the last deglaciation, until 8.6 kyr (calendar ages). Nd-Pb data can be modeled mainly as a mixture between a Precambrian crust and Lower Paleozoic material originating from the denudation of the pan-African orogen. The old material originates mainly from the Archean, Lower Proterozoic, or both terranes of Greenland (and also probably corresponding terranes of Labrador), although minor input of other Precambrian material is recorded in some detrital carbonate-rich deglacial samples from Orphan Knoll. The Phanerozoic crustal end member consists of sediment material mainly originating from northwestern Europe. This source area is found to be the only significant source of young crustal material in early Holocene sediments from the Greenland Rise. No significant input from the mid-Atlantic volcanism is apparent. This study puts further constraints on the deep circulation pattern during the last deglaciation. It is concluded that at that time, European Phanerozoic material was carried from the Norwegian Sea through the Wyville Thompson Ridge into the Iceland Basin by the North East Atlantic Deep Water. No evidence for an overflow is found either south of the Iceland (Iceland-Scotland Ridge) or through the Denmark Strait.     

Source of a freshwater influx at the last glacial maximum in the Indian Ocean: An alternative interpretation

Recent analysis of a sediment core in the eastern Arabian Sea revealed a negative pulse of about 1% in the δ¹⁸O value of the planktonic Foraminifera around the last glacial maximum (LGM). This pulse has been attributed to (i) increased runoff into the Bay of Bengal from the east-flowing south Indian rivers due to enhancement of the northeast winter monsoon, and (ii) an increase in Arabian sea-surface temperature caused by the weakening of the southwest monsoon at the LGM. We show that the speculation on which the latter hypothesis is based, is not supported by observational data and cannot fully account for the observed magnitude of the spike. With a view to assessing the validity of the first mechanism, we have modelled the mixed layer of the Bay of Bengal as a well-mixed box. The model calculations show that to account for the pulse requires a change of about 10% in either the annual rate of river input or its isotopic composition. For the northeast monsoon to account for the pulse it would mean that the rainfall should have increased by a factor of five to ten during the LGM. No evidence for such an increase is indicated in the available palaeoclimatic data. We explain the freshwater spike by invoking increased discharge of glacial meltwater from the Tibetan plateau into the Bay of Bengal. We show that the proxy climate data from the Indo-Tibetan region that has become available recently provides substantial evidence for the occurrence of a warming event around the LGM, which supports our mechanism.     

全新世亚洲季风百年-千年尺度变化的模拟研究进展

气候重建工作的深入开展极大地促进了全新世亚洲季风变化的研究,然而当前重建结果对亚洲季风的演变特征和机理存在很大争议,开展古气候模拟对理解全新世亚洲季风演变的时空特征和成因机制具有重要意义。为此,本文主要从气候模式模拟的角度回顾全新世亚洲季风百年-千年尺度变化的模拟研究工作,并将从外强迫和气候系统内部变率这两个角度对机制进行探讨。主要有以下进展:全新世瞬变模拟试验结果反映早全新世以来亚洲季风降水呈下降趋势,这主要受到地球轨道参数的影响,并通过改变海陆热力差异和半球间温度梯度来影响亚洲季风降水。在百年尺度弱季风事件上,模拟的8.2 ka BP时期的亚洲季风弱事件主要是由冰川融水触发,引起大西洋经向翻转环流AMOC减弱并通过大气遥相关导致季风降水减少;而4.2 ka BP时期模式模拟的亚洲弱季风事件主要是受内部变率所主导而并非外强迫因子影响。亚洲季风百年尺度变化的模拟研究主要集中在过去2 000年时段,中世纪气候异常期季风明显增强,而在小冰期逐渐减弱,太阳辐射和火山活动是影响其变化的主导因子,它们通过影响海陆热力差异、印—太海温变化来影响季风变化。