Mechanism and comprehensive countermeasure for drought management from the view of catastrophe theory

Drought is one of the major disasters around the world which cause great social and economic hardship. Recent events of severe droughts have motivated comprehensive research on drought management in China like many other countries of Asia, Europe and Africa. In this paper, the mechanism of drought management has been analyzed in light of water supply and water demand management considering water shortage as an inductor of drought. Catastrophe theory has been proposed to explain transitions through discontinuities and unexpected changes in water system. The study indicates that supply management can increase water supply; however, in long term, it may not be sustainable for drought mitigation. Water demand management, on the other hand, improves water use efficiency with less investment. Therefore, the study emphasizes water demand managements for drought management under future changing scenarios.     

需水管理的定义与内涵

水资源是基础性的自然资源和战略性的经济资源,是生态与环境的控制性要素.中国人均占有水资源量少,不足2200m3,不足世界人均占有量的1/3.水资源时空分布极为不均,特别是在全球气候变化和大规模经济开发双重因素的交织作用下,中国水资源情势正在发生新的变化.在水资源管理理念上,要加快从供水管理向需水管理转变.为使人们对需水管理有比较全面和深刻的认识,部分专家和学者从各种角度论述了"需水管理"的定义和内涵,认为,需水管理是面向包括人类与自然在内所有用水户的水资源供需平衡的全方位而有序的管理系统工程,对各方面的需水,采取行政、经济、法律和技术等手段和措施,对水资源供需进行平衡与协调,遏制不合理用水需求,提高用水效率和效益,减少水资源短缺对人类社会的威胁,确保水资源可持续利用.简言之,需水管理意为以供定需,供需协调,人水和谐,持续利用.     

Village water supply in Botswana: assessment of recommended yield for production boreholes in a semi-arid environment

More than 90% of the rural villages and settlements throughout Botswana have water supplies based on groundwater. The annual increase in water demand is about 0.3 × 10⁶ m³ and on average around 60 new boreholes are needed annually. In parallel with construction of new production boreholes for rural villages, there is an on-going rehabilitation of existing boreholes which have lost their original yield due to clogging, corrosion, encrustation, etc. The total annual cost of siting, drilling and testing of around 100 new production boreholes for rural villages water supply is estimated at around US$7.5 million (1997 price).Modelling of every groundwater resource for rural village water supply in Botswana is currently not feasible due to a lack of relevant and detailed information. A modelling exercise will assess the resource of the aquifer being studied, but can not give an assessment of the yield of each production borehole. Groundwater supply to rural villages is therefore currently based on the abstraction possible from established production boreholes. Test pumping data from these boreholes are the prime information in such an assessment. However safety factors and the fact that drought periods of longer duration are common in a semi-arid environment must also be considered. A computer program package TESTCURV developed by the Department of Water Affairs is a most useful tool in the assessment of yields for production boreholes for village water supply in Botswana, based on the performance of the well and the aquifer. No replenishment is assumed and the question of sustainable yield is not addressed by the program.     

河北临城水资源现状分析及节水对策

临城县属于缺水地区,随着社会经济的发展,需水量急剧增加,供需矛盾日益加剧.水资源可持续利用问题亟待解决.农业是用水大户,为实现水资源的可持续利用,论述农业节水几种途径及生活、工业节水的途径,合理开发利用水资源.     

吉林省中部水资源利用趋势分析及对策

吉林省中部是全国重要的商品粮基地和东北重要的经济区,水资源的短缺和不合理利用严重制约了该区社会经济的可持续发展。根据水资源时空分布特征和开发利用现状,认为本区总体上为水资源脆弱区。从水资源需求趋势和供给能力两方面,综合判断水资源利用高峰将出现在2020年左右,用水量约为55～60亿m~3。水资源利用结构将有显著的变化,到2030年时,居民用水、工业用水、农业用水三者需水量之比达到1∶2∶2的水平。提出建设节水农业是实现区域水资源可持续利用的战略性措施；合理利用雨洪资源是提高供水体系稳定性的关键手段；实施水源置换工程是改善供水系统的重要举措；建立合理的水价体系是实现水资源合理配置的基础性工程；加强水资源的综合管理是实现水资源可持续利用的体制保障。     

Balancing the contaminant input into urban water resources

With over 40% of the water supply of Western and Eastern Europe coming from urban aquifers, efficient and cost-effective management tools for this resource are essential to maintain the quality of life. However, the increasing concerns about the environmental impacts of water projects and their increasing economic costs mean that traditional planning concepts, which assume unlimited supplies of potable water, must be questioned. This includes the source of the water supply and its appropriate use. Urban transport systems and the provision of water have been identified as the most critical factors that determine the future of cities in this century. The objective of an interdisciplinary research project presented in this paper is to identify and develop systems and technologies and integrative processes and analytical tools, which are commercially valuable, scientifically robust and which improve the cost effectiveness of urban water services, in line with the programs vision of ecological sustainability. As part of this program, a software tool has been developed to estimate the water flows and contaminant loads within the urban water system. This paper presents first modelling results of water and contaminant flows through the existing urban water, wastewater and stormwater systems, from source to discharge point.     

Urban water conservation

Water conservation may be defined as a demonstrably beneficial reduction inthe amount of water of a certain quality for a specific use. Increasing costs as well as the risk of water shortages are likely to spur more efficient use of existing facilities. In many instances, conservation may be the most cost-effective way of increasing the supply of municipal water. Policymakers need to be familiar with the policy instruments, such as peak responsibility pricing, that could reduce the peak and average demands for municipal water and cost-effective technological options available to customers who wish to reduce water use. This paper is organized around these two themes and reviews the salient empirical findings in this field. Several municipalities have reduced peak demands, and the number of studies in demand management has increased substantially since the early 1960s. However, the interest in applying empirical findings has lagged behind research. Increasing costs are likely to stimulate innovative management and it is critical to explicate the problem and solutions so that policymakers would have the necessary understanding to make rational, cost-effective decisions. Time-and-location specific investigation is essential for enhancing such understanding.     

大城市实施分质供水的必要性和可行性--以天津市为例

随着社会和经济的迅速发展，淡水资源供需矛盾日益突出。当前除须继续加大治污、水环境保护的力度以外，还应从资源水利和环境水利的角度出发，实行分质用水，优水优用，污水巧用，差水改用，加速构筑多层次、多系统的立体供水网络。分质供水已有2000年的历史，现代社会已有成熟技术和实践经验，社会对分质供水亦有需求，故而分质供水是“资源型”缺水城市解决水资源短缺的必由之路。     

The role of economic analysis in groundwater management in semi-arid regions: the case of Nigeria

The aim of this paper is to use an economic framework to derive decision making rules for river basin management with a focus on groundwater resources. Using an example from northern Nigeria, the paper provides an example of how decision making for sustainable water resources management may be facilitated by comparing net benefits and costs across a river basin. It is argued that economic tools can be used to assess the value of water resources in different uses, identify and analyze management scenarios, and provide decision rules for the sustainable use and management of surface and ground water resources in the region.

基于系统动力学的新疆焉耆县水资源需求分析

应用系统动力学方法,建立了县域水资源利用SD模型,并对焉耆县主要的水资源利用系统中的农业需水量、工业需水量、生活需水量、牲畜需水量和生态需水量进行了仿真模拟,分析了焉耆县未来20年中各用水系统的动态趋势。通过仿真模拟可以看出,农业用水是该县的主要用水,用水量高达90％以上。农业用水量决定着总需水量的变化趋势,并极大地影响着水资源的供需关系;  其他方面需水量在未来20年中虽有大幅度增长的趋势,但所占比例很小,不能对总供需水关系产生明显的影响。从供水角度讲,提高地表水和地下水联合开发比例,可以较大缓解供水压力。文章旨在运用系统动力学方法,通过建立SD模型,为认识焉耆县水资源供需现状及发展趋势提供一种途径。     

Groundwater as a sustainable source of income and wealth creation

Asia, and in particular the Mekong Delta region, is under increasing water use pressure. Food production and quality is one element of these growing pressures, as is water management. The authors have first-hand knowledge and experience in groundwater use and management in rural Thailand. Through the adoption of a micro-management, demand-driven approach, with its ultimate objective of sustainability and the betterment of the quality of human life, the Mekong delta and other similar rural areas in Asia offer considerable opportunity for more optimal sustainable exploitation of groundwater. This water source should be prioritized for village usage, which if properly allocated and managed, will lift a significant human population from poverty, into a more sustainable existence. This readily available, reliable groundwater resource exists and has both the capacity for abundant storage as well as the potential for commercial and household supply. The focus has been on understanding the distribution of the delta’s relatively shallow, well sustained, and consistently recharged groundwater resource, and its potential symbiotic linkage to low-volume household demand. Water has been employed in a variety of ways from improving quality of life and sanitation to generating income through the cultivation of cash crops and other similar productive uses. The fundamental aims of the initial model and subsequent trials have been to harness this robust water source and deliver otherwise unattainable income to households. As the following, more detailed study of rural Thailand demonstrates, the benefits of such an approach deliver sustainable enhancements to the quality of constituents’ lives, are environmentally sensitive and sustainable, and harmonize with governmental efforts to alleviate poverty through the enablement of income generation from groundwater utilization.     

Water use at Luxor,Egypt: consumption analysis and future demand forecasting

Water resources in Egypt are becoming scarce and the demand for clean drinking water supply is one of the most important priorities of the Egyptian government in recent years. Analyzing water use and future demand forecasting is a primitive clue for water demand management. Water in Luxor is used for agricultural, residential, institutional, commercial, and touristic purposes. The results of water use analysis indicated that for the time period from 1983 to 2012, agriculture is the highest consumer of water which reached about 94.76–97.38 % followed by residential water consumption (1.90–3.05 %), institutional water consumption (0.71–1.75 %), and touristic water consumption (0.02–0.43 %), respectively. The future demand forecasting results revealed that the present situation may continue to rise in the next 50 years which will increase the water demand with a water deficit ranging between 15 and 114 MCM/year. To fill the gap between the present water consumption and future residential, institutional, commercial, and touristic water demand, additional municipal facilities, and improvement and management of water supply/demand are needed. To cope with the predicted future water demand, it is recommended to improve the on-farm irrigation, reduce the demand for irrigation water, rationalize the irrigation water use, and enhance the integrated role of water users in integrated water resources management.     

广州市水资源承载力的主成分分析

水资源承载力是衡量经济社会可持续发展的重要指标。本文以广州市水资源承载力为研究对象,在现有资料的基础上,运用主成分分析法从14个指标中提取出影响水资源承载力动态变化的两个主成分,并对广州市水资源承载力年际变化进行了综合评价。结果表明：2005—2010年,广州市水资源承载力呈现逐年下降的趋势。但就目前情况来看,通过扩展供水工程、加强节水措施等能缓解供需矛盾,水资源承载力还存在一定的提升空间。     

引大工程供水区水资源优化配置模型及方案研究

引大入秦工程是由大通河向甘肃中部兰州市永登县秦王川地区跨流域引水的以农业灌溉为主要目的大型调水工程。工程建成通水后,对改变当地农业生产条件和贫困面貌、安置贫困山区移民、促进秦王川地区的经济社会发展发挥了重要作用。但是,由于各种因素的综合影响,工程在设计效益的发挥等方面存在一些问题,集中表现在供水能力未能充分发挥、工程水资源配置没有实现最优化。在收集到翔实的第一手资料的基础上,将引大灌区和周边可能的供水范围作为一个统一的研究对象即引大工程供水区,根据供水区的供需水现状和用水发展趋势,采用水资源系统分析理论中的最优化技术,建立以经济效益、社会效益和环境效益最优为目标、以供需水量为约束条件的优化配置模型,通过求解模型,确定近期和远期供水区的水资源在各子区不同用水部门间的最优化配置方案,为富余水源寻找出路,这对最大限度地发挥工程效益,促进区域经济社会的可持续发展具有重要作用。     

Ground water recharge in urban areas — Experience of rain water harvesting

Water consumption is likely to increase substantially in the future on account of rising population, economic growth, and social development. Rapid urbanization and population growth of Allahabad city, has necessitated thinking about the declination in ground water level as well as supply of sufficient quantity of water for future either for drinking purpose or industrial use. In the present study, rainfall recharge of Allahabad city has been computed on GIS platform (ArcInfo). Groundwater recharge potential zones of Allahabad city have also been found out using GIS. Case study of recharge of ground water through roof top rainwater harvesting at Vikas Bhawan (a multistoryed building), Allahabad is discussed. An implementation of this analysis and decision making software is expected to work for sustainable water management.     

南水北调进京后怀柔应急水源地地下水资源涵养研究

怀柔应急水源地作为北京最大的应急地下水源地,在连续10多年的干旱期间,为保障城市供水安全做出了巨大贡献。文章在总结怀柔应急水源地10年供水历程的基础上,评价了连续干旱和应急开采条件下区域水资源的变化;结合南水北调进京的契机,从"资源人工回补"和供水系统"热备运行"两方面开展当地地下水资源涵养研究工作,以保障怀柔应急水源地可持续"应急供水"能力,为应对南水北调供水过程中的突发事件,做好水资源战备储备。     

陕西省渭河流域节水的必要性及措施

渭河流域是陕西经济社会的主体,区内水资源贫乏,水的有效利用率低,浪费严重,水资源供需矛盾突出,缺水已成为国民经济持续发展的重要制约因素.要解决其供需矛盾,首先应在农业、工业、生活等各个方面采取工程、技术、管理等节水措施,节约用水,建立节水型社会,以水资源的可持续利用保障经济社会的可持续发展.     

西北干旱区生态需水研究

西北干旱区是水资源稀缺和生态环境相对脆弱的区域。以人类需求为中心的传统水资源开发利用及评价忽视了水资源与生态环境系统之间的关系,引发了众多的生态环境问题。日益恶化的生态环境使得生态需水量受到广泛关注,生态需水量研究由此成为干旱区生态水文学研究新的增长点。文章在综述国内外生态需水研究现状及其面临挑战的基础上,分析西北干旱区水资源转化特点,结合Falkenmark 水资源分类,突出生态需水在水分流中的地位,提出保障生态需水的策略,即：①生态环境稳定性界定;②绿水的保护与高效利用; ③虚拟水战略,旨在为平衡人类需水与自然需水提供重要的理论基础。     

长江三角洲地区水资源供需平衡的估算模型研究

从地表热量平衡、水量平衡的基本理论出发,结合长江三角洲地区的气象、水文、土壤等资料建立了区域水资源量估算模型,计算了该地区的地表水、地下水及水资源总量;同时建立了用水系统的各个子模型,即根据本区农业生产状况建立了农业耗水的物理模型,由工业和生活用水量的变化,结合地区经济发展、人口增加等情况,建立了工业和生活用水的统计模型。利用实际资料进行了模型检验,对本地区未来水资源供需平衡状况进行了分析和预测。     

Arsenic contamination of groundwater: Mitigation strategies and policies

Contamination of groundwater by arsenic from natural geochemical sources is at present a most serious challenge in the planning of large-scale use of groundwater for drinking and other purposes. Recent improvements in detection limits of analytical instruments are allowing the correlation of health impacts such as cancer with large concentrations of arsenic in groundwater. However, there are at present no known large-scale technological solutions for the millions of people—mostly rural—who are potentially affected in developing countries. An overall framework of combating natural resource degradation is combined with case studies from Chile, Mexico, Bangladesh and elsewhere to arrive at a set of strategic recommendations for the global, national and local dimensions of the arsenic crisis. The main recommendations include: the need for flexibility in the elaboration of any arsenic mitigation strategy, the improvement and large-scale use of low-cost and participatory groundwater quality testing techniques, the need to maintain consistent use of key lessons learned worldwide in water supply and sanitation and to integrate arsenic as just one other factor in providing a sustainable water supply, and the following of distinct but communicable tracks between arsenic-related developments and enhanced, long-term, sustainable water supplies.