Modelling of the ecosystem of the Black-Sea shelf zone near the estuary of the Danube

We analyze the results of numerical calculations performed according to the three-dimensional interdisciplinary model of an ecological system of the Black-Sea shelf zone near the estuary of the Danube. The complete system of equations of hydrothermodynamics is solved together with transport equations of the advection-diffusion-reaction type used to describe the transformation of a substance (nitrogen) between the components of the characteristic vectors of the ecosystem: plankton, detritus, and biogenic elements (nitrates). We describe the distinctive features of the circumcontinental distribution of components obtained as a result of numerical experiments and present arguments for the conclusion that the ecosystem of the Danube estuary water area plays the role of a buffer zone between the press of the Danubian biogenic pollutions and the neighbouring areas of the shelf zone and open sea. Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev     

A two-dimensional numerical model of tidal motions on the shelf of Guinea

The general statement of a non-linear problem in modelling a barotropic tide for the limited part of a real shelf and the problems related to artificial division of the computation area in the ocean by a liquid boundary are considered. Linear combinations of various types of boundary conditions and analytical expressions are used to describe the tidal wave structure at the liquid boundaries. The results of test computations for basins with the simplest outlines are given. The model is used to reconstruct the spatial distribution of characteristics of theM ₂ tide on the shelf of Guinea. The methods of computation and specification of unambiguously determined model parameters are described. Joint analysis of the modelling results and the field data has been carried out. The tidal map of theM ₂ wave is plotted for the area under investigation.Translated by Mikhail M. Trufanov.     

Collaborative research on the pelagic ecosystem of the southeastern Bering Sea shelf

Two Bering Sea marine research programs collaborated during the final years of the 1990s to forge advances in understanding the southeastern Bering Sea pelagic ecosystem. Southeast Bering Sea Carrying Capacity, sponsored by NOAA Coastal Ocean Program, investigated processes on the middle and outer shelf and the continental slope. The Inner Front Program, sponsored by NSF, investigated processes of the inner domain and the front between the inner and middle domains. The purposes of these programs were to (1) increase understanding of the southeastern Bering Sea ecosystem, including the roles of juvenile walleye pollock, (2) investigate the hypothesis that elevated primary production at the inner front provides a summer-long energy source for the food web, and (3) develop and test annual indices of pre-recruit pollock abundance. The observations occurred during a period of unusually large variability in the marine climate, including a possible regime shift. Sea-ice cover ranged from near zero to one of the heaviest ice years in recent decades. Sea-surface temperatures reached record highs during summer 1997, whereas 1999 was noted for its low Bering Sea temperatures. Moreover, the first recorded observations of coccolithophore blooms on the shelf were realized in 1997, and these blooms now appear to be persistent. The programs’ results include an archive of physical and biological time series that emphasize large year-to-year regional variability, and an Oscillating Control Hypothesis that relates marine productivity to climate forcing. Further investigations are needed of the confluences of interannual and even intra-seasonal variability with low-frequency climate variability as potential producers of major, abrupt changes in the southeastern Bering Sea ecosystem.     

Modelling of the Sea of Azov ecosystem

The method of mathematical model self-organization is applied to handle observations of the hydrological, chemical and biological parameters of the Sea of Azov, conducted from 1926 through to 1985, in order to identify model equations of the latter's ecosystem. A set of 43 evolutionary equations have been employed to generate a picture of the ecosystem parameters' continuous variability and to identify relationships between them. Model calculations of the total catch of freshwater fishes, primary productivity, zoobenthos, phytoplankton, and other characteristics have demonstrated their being in good agreement with the observations conducted from 1950 to 1985. A prediction of the ecosystem parameters' evolution for the period from 1985 to 1995 has been made. Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

Relation between the depth of visibility of a white disk and the concentration of suspended matter in shelf waters off the Republic of Guinea

Combined studies on the depth of visibility of a white disk and the total concentration of suspended matter have been carried out in the surface layer on the Guinean shelf (the depth of the site was 2–180 m). A relation close to a linear one is observed between the logarithms of these values; the correlation coefficient is –0·97. It is shown that the regression equation is applicable to the total shelf zone of Guinea for dry and wet seasons. An equation is obtained which permits the estimation of the water volume using the depth of the white disk visibility which should be sampled in the given site for filtration to determine the concentration of suspended matter with the necessary accuracy.Translated by Mikhail M. Trufanov.     

Environmental influence on phytoplankton production during summer on the KwaZulu-Natal shelf of the Agulhas ecosystem

During February 2010, studies of primary production (PP) and physiology were conducted at five selected sites in the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) Bight of the Agulhas ecosystem as part of a programme to elucidate the influence of major physical driving forces and nutrient inputs on the structure and functioning of biological communities. These sites were located in the vicinity of the Durban lee eddy, in the midshelf region of the central part of the bight, off the Thukela Mouth, and to the north and south of Richards Bay. At four of the sites, chlorophyll a ranged from 0.10 to 1.44?mg m–3 and integrated PP ranged between 0.35 and 2.58?g C m–² d–1. The highest biomass and PP, which were comparable to those observed in a wind-driven upwelling system, were associated with a diatom community observed at the midshelf site, and varied between 0.26 and 4.27?mg m–³ and 7.22 and 9.89?g C m–² d–1, respectively. Environmental conditions at each of the sites differed substantially and appeared to be influential in initiating and controlling the development and distribution of phytoplankton biomass and production. Phytoplankton adaptation to variable environmental conditions was characterised by a decreased light-limited slope (αB) and increased rate of photosynthesis (P_m ) and light saturation (Ek) with elevated temperatures. The converse (increased α^B and decreased P_m and Ek) was observed as irradiance levels declined. Generalised additive models indicated that irradiance, temperature and biomass were important variables influencing photosynthetic parameters and photosynthetic rates.     

Oxygenation episodes on the continental shelf of central Peru: Remote forcing and benthic ecosystem response

The interplay between the oxygen minimum zone and remotely-forced oxygenation episodes determines the fate of the benthic subsystem off the Central Peruvian coast. We analyzed a 12 year monthly time-series of oceanographic and benthic parameters at 94 m depth off Callao, Central Peru (12°S), to analyze: (i) near-bottom oxygen level on the continental shelf in relation to dynamic height on the equator (095°W); and (ii) benthic ecosystem responses to oxygen change (macrobiotic infauna, meiofauna, and sulphide-oxidizing bacteria, Thioploca spp.). Shelf oxygenation episodes occurred after equatorial dynamic height increases one month before, consistent with the propagation of coastal trapped waves. Several but not all of these episodes occurred during El Niños. The benthic biota responded to oxygenation episodes by undergoing succession through three major ecological states. Under strong oxygen deficiency or anoxia, the sediments were nearly defaunated of macro-invertebrates and Thioploca was scarce, such that nematode biomass dominated the macro- and meiobiotas. When frequency of oxygenation events reduced the periods of anoxia, but the prevailing oxygen range was 10–20 μmol L⁻¹, mats of Thioploca formed and dominated the biomass. Finally, with frequent and intense (>40 μmol L⁻¹) oxygenation, the sediments were colonized by macrofauna, which then dominated biomass. The Thioploca state evolved during the 2002–2003 weak EN, while the macrofauna state was developed during the onset of the strong1997–1998 EN. Repeated episodes of strong oxygen deficiency during the summer of 2004, in parallel with the occurrence of red tides in surface waters, resulted in the collapse of Thioploca mats and development of the Nematode state. Ecological interactions may affect persistence or the transition between benthic ecosystem states.     

Chemotaxonomic investigation of phytoplankton in the shelf ecosystem of the KwaZulu-Natal Bight,South Africa

Phytoplankton community structure was elucidated during summer and winter in the KwaZulu-Natal Bight using pigment and CHEMTAX analyses. The surface pattern in January 2010 indicated that diatoms, haptophytes and prasinophytes tended to be the most prominent groups inshore and in the southern sector of the bight, whereas Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus were more dominant in the north and towards the offshore region. At the deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM), diatoms were dominant in the inner bight and in the south, with prasinophytes being the prominent flagellates, but this changed to Prochlorococcus and pelagophytes being the important groups in the northern sector and outer part of the bight. A different pattern was observed at the surface in July 2010, where diatoms, haptophytes, prasinophytes and cryptophytes in varying proportions comprised most of the community in the inner half of the bight, whereas Synechococcus and haptophytes were the main groups in the outer sector. A similar pattern occurred at the DCM, except that Synechococcus was less prominent and pelagophytes were distributed across the bight in both the inshore and offshore zones. Observations and relationships between phytoplankton groups and environmental parameters indicated that the groups were most closely related to temperature, accounting for 24–64% of the deviance. The influence of nutrients on phytoplankton was less clear but nitrate and silicate seemed to account for some of the patchy distribution patterns.     

The structure,dynamics, and transformation of the estuary lenses in run-off seawater on the shelf of Guinea

Peculiarities of the dynamics and the structure formation in the estuary run-off lenses have been analysed based on field data obtained at the Guinean coast (the central eastern Atlantic Ocean). Attention was paid to the processes of restratification, internal mixing, and exchange in the areas of the frontal zone of the run-off lens and the tidal frontal zone. The stabilization of the front of the estuary run-off lens by means of the periodic washing out of its forepart by tidal upwelling is described. The mechanisms of the energy transformation in the leading part of the lens have been revealed. Effects of run-off and loczalization of transformed waters in the small-scale frontal zones are found. The energy estimations represented will be useful in considering analogous phenomena in other coastal regions.Translated by Mikhail M. Trufanov.     

Dynamic model of integrated processes in the ecosystem of the northwest shelf of the Black Sea

For the ecosystem of the northwest shelf of the Black Sea studied as an example, we construct a dynamic model of the integrated processes of development of phyto-and zooplankton, larvae, and fish and the variations of the concentrations of biogenic elements and detritus. The data of many-year observations over these processes are generalized and the scheme of genetic relations between these processes is proposed. By the method of adaptive balance of causes, we establish the dynamic model equations of the ecosystem. It is proposed to use the method of analytic hierarchy process for the estimation of the coefficients of the model with regard for the degree of influence of external and internal factors on the dynamics of the ecosystem. Some examples of analysis of various scenarios of the development of integrated processes running in the ecosystem are presented and their comparison with the data of many-year observations in this region is performed. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 4, pp. 48–69, July–August, 2007.     

Valuing the Guinea current large marine ecosystem: Estimates of direct output impact of relevant marine activities

This study is a first step towards valuing the Guinea Current Large Marine Ecosystem (GCLME), one of the five world's most productive marine areas that are rich in fishery resources, petroleum production, and an important global region of marine biological diversity. The area is highly degraded and thus demands urgent attention to recover and sustain depleted fisheries; restore degraded habitats; and reduce land and ship-based pollutions. Achieving this goal would be a mirage if the actual value of the ecosystem's contribution to the society is not known. Valuation can help identify the main beneficiaries of conservation and the magnitude of benefits they receive, and help design measures to capture some of these benefits and contribute to financing of conservation. Hence this study used the direct output approach to estimate the value of relevant marine activities in the area. The result shows that the total value of output in GCLME when some outputs namely, marine fishery, offshore oil production, NTFP (periwinkle) and mining, are considered as $49,941.4 million. Among these uses, offshore oil production has the highest value accounting for 59.79% of the total estimate. These estimates provides sufficient evidence to show that GCLME provide enormous value and should be managed appropriately to sustain the gains if the economic development would be guaranteed especially considering that most countries in the GCLM depend on natural resources for their survival. Evolving a well defined property rights regime and an efficient governance system for management is recommended.     

A biophysical NPZ model with iron for the Gulf of Alaska: Reproducing the differences between an oceanic HNLC ecosystem and a classical northern temperate shelf ecosystem

Modeling the coastal Gulf of Alaska (CGOA) is complicated by the highly diverse physical and biological features influencing productivity and energy flow through the region. The GOA consists of the offshore oceanic environment, characterized by iron limitation, high-nutrients and low-chlorophyll. The coastal environment is consistently downwelling, with high iron levels from glacial melt water and runoff, but lower concentrations of macronutrients, and with a spring bloom, nutrient depletion cycle (low-nutrient, high-chlorophyll). Cross-shelf movement of water masses mixes coastal and oceanic ecosystem elements.Simulations and field data indicate that the minimum model complexity necessary to characterize lower trophic-level production and biomass in the offshore and coastal regions includes 10 boxes: iron, nitrate, ammonium, small phytoplankton, large phytoplankton, small microzooplankton, large microzooplankton, small copepods, large oceanic copepods and detritus, with copepod mortality as a model closure term. We present the model structure, equations required (and initial parameters used) to simulate onshore and offshore lower trophic-level production in the Gulf of Alaska, along with the information from field data and simulations used to construct the model. We show the results of simulations with and without iron, and with and without two size classes of phytoplankton. These simulations indicate that our method of inclusion of iron works well to distinguish the coastal and the oceanic ecosystems, and that the inclusion of two size categories of phytoplankton is also necessary to generate the differences between these two ecosystems.     

Modelling future conditions in the degraded semi-arid estuary of Australia's largest river using ecosystem states

Over the last ten years, there has been a major decline in the condition of the Coorong, the estuary for Australia's largest river system, the River Murray. This decline is due to prolonged drought combined with past management of the Murray-Darling Basin. In order to successfully manage the estuary in the future, predictions are needed to evaluate the effect of possible management actions on the Coorong ecosystem under a variety of climatic scenarios. The alternative stable state concept can be extended to non-equilibrium systems, allowing for modelling of condition. Rather than constraining the definition of alternative states to those that are stable, we identify a suite of ecosystem states that occur naturally, but also include those that arise during the decline of the system. Eight distinct states were defined, with thresholds between them based on a combination of environmental characteristics associated with co-occurring biota. Threshold values for environmental characteristics define the transition rules between states. Mapping these states allows us to characterise the condition of the estuary in both space and time. The distribution of these states, and the diversity of states supported can be used to create an ecosystem condition index. By calculating the value of the index over time, the trajectory of ecosystem condition merges, and predictions can be made about future condition, should the current situation continue. This trajectory modelling can then form a baseline against which to evaluate possible management actions under a variety of climatic scenarios to identify those most likely to improve the condition of the Coorong.     

Modeling of the annual and spectral evolution of hydrooptical characteristics using a model for shelf ecosystem and remote observations

Mathematical modeling of the ecosystem in the northwestern shelf of the Caspian Sea is based on the method of aggregation and averaging with the subsequent hierarchic decomposition. This approach includes a step-by-step comparison of the modeling results with the data of observations. A block of optical characteristics (absorption coefficient, backscattering coefficient, and coefficient of diffuse light reflection) built into the model made it possible to use the data of simultaneous contact and remote observations. The observations were performed during the expedition of R/V Tantal (2004–2005) together with the data of the SeaWiFS satellite ocean color scanner. A comparison of the results of the modeling and the data of observations demonstrated their qualitative and quantitative agreement, especially in the case of the coefficient of diffuse light reflection.     

Modelling of the propagation and transformation of riverine waters over the north-western shelf and in the abyssal part of the Black Sea

To study the propagation and transformation of riverine waters in the framework of a multilayer model based on primitive equations, the method of through counting is suggested, involving two types of grids, namely, a fine grid in the north-western shelf area and a large-sized grid in the deep sea. It has been shown that, in the absence of wind, riverine waters propagate over the shelf and along the western coast of the sea. North-easterly wind presses this flow against the shore, thus intensifying it; as a result of this, brackish waters turn out to be nearly entirely driven from the north-western shelf area and concentrate in the western section of the open sea where they form a layer that is quasi-homogeneous, in terms of salinity. Due to the forcing of the north-westerly wind, riverine waters penetrate into the interior of the shelf area and then move southward toward the open sea, mixing up with the upwelling abyssal saltier waters and forming a tongue of relatively brackish waters in the central part of the western half-basin. Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.