The variable impact of ENSO events on regional dengue/DHF in Indonesia

Although studies have demonstrated significant associations between ENSO events and dengue fever, few have explored regional impacts on dengue fever of separate events. This study explores the impacts of two ENSO events on regional patterns of dengue/ dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) incidence in Indonesia. Data consist of monthly cases of dengue/DHF from 1992 to 2001 for each of Indonesia's 27 provinces, and monthly figures for rainfall, rainfall anomalies, temperature, relative humidity and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). We conducted Pearson correlation analyses for each independent variable against dengue/DHF incidence, using a direct month‐by‐month correlation and applying a lag of between one and six months to each variable with respect to dengue/DHF incidence. Based on the SOI value, we identified two ENSO events between 1992 and 2001. To explore each event, we created two dummy variables and in regression analyses for eight provinces. The variance of between 12.9 per cent and 24.5 per cent in provincial dengue/DHF incidence is explained by two or three climate variables in each of the provinces (p < 0.01 to 0.1). During the 1997/98 event, the explained variance increased by between 7 per cent and 15 per cent in provinces whose climate regimes were most affected by this event. This study demonstrates that indicators of ENSO such as the SOI may assist in the forecast of potential dengue/DHF incidence and distribution in Indonesia.     

东北高空湿度变化特征及其与地面气温和降水的关系

利用1971~2005年探空和地面观测资料,详细分析了东北地区高空比湿和相对湿度的时空变化特征,并探讨了比湿和相对湿度与地面气温、降水量的关系。结果表明：东北地区比湿空间分布主要受到水汽来源的影响,地面由东南向西北递减,高空由南向北递减;相对湿度受水汽、海拔高度和纬度的共同影响,地面和对流层下层由南向北先减后增,对流层中层由南向北递增,赤峰向通辽延伸的西南-东北向干舌地面最明显,随高度增加逐渐减弱。1971~2005年,东北地区比湿从地面到高空均为增加趋势,对流层中下层的增加趋势更加显著;相对湿度在地面呈显著减小趋势,对流层中层呈显著增加趋势。大气比湿与地面气温在年、季尺度上存在一致的显著正相关关系,大气相对湿度与地面气温在季节尺度上存在显著负相关关系;对流层中下层相对湿度与降水量相关最显著;地面气温升高对东北气候趋于干旱化起了重要作用,高空相对湿度增加有利于降水增加,气温与比湿的相互消长,影响了气候的干、湿变化。     

Regional variability in relationships between climate and dengue/DHF in Indonesia

Since 1970, the worldwide distribution, frequency and intensity of epidemics of dengue and dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) have increased dramatically. In Indonesia, as elsewhere, the geographic distribution and behaviour of the two main vectors – Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus – and the consequent transmission dynamics of the disease are strongly influenced by climate. Monthly incidence data were examined in relation to monthly data for temperature, rainfall, rainfall anomalies, humidity and the Southern Oscillation Index for 1992–2001. Focusing on eight provinces, significant Pearson correlations were observed between dengue/DHF incidence and at least one climate variable ( r  = ±0.2 to ±0.43; P  < 0.05). Multiple regression analyses showed that 12.9–24.5 per cent of variance in incidence was explained by two or three climate variables in each province ( P  < 0.1–0.01). Rainfall appears to be the principal climatic agent affecting the geographic distribution and temporal pattern of incidence while temperature appears to play a critical role in outbreak intensity. Wide regional and temporal variations in the strength and nature of the observed associations led to the identification of three groups of provinces where increases in dengue/DHF incidence were variously associated with increased rainfall, decreased rainfall and/or high susceptibility to climate variability. Although climatic factors play an important role in explaining the timing and intensity of dengue/DHF outbreaks, a wide range of other factors specific to local environments also appear to be involved – information that may assist in the prediction and mitigation of regional dengue/DHF outbreaks.     

新疆地区药用植物地理分布模式和气候特征研究

植物分布与区域气候有密切关系。新疆多样性地形地貌形成各具特色的区域气候特征,孕育了丰富的药用植物资源。依据新疆地区药用植物地理分布和区域气候两方面研究药用植物地理分布模式和气候特征,基于第三次中药资源普查数据得到新疆地区甘草、紫草、麻黄、肉苁蓉、枸杞等主要中药材空间分布图,并计算相关地区的物种丰富度和多样性指数。结果显示：新疆天山山脉地区药材种类丰富度最高,是新疆野生药材主要的分布区。同时,基于ArcGIS平台将年均温、年降水量等10个气象因子数据进行空间分类,得到气候因子数值在新疆地区的空间分布。新疆地区气候特征是以天山为分界线的南疆年平均温度和活动积温明显高于北疆,原因是天山山脉的屏障作用;降水与我国内陆格局不同,新疆降水量空间分布呈现东少西多格局;新疆最具特色的两个地区：一是伊犁塔城地区气候温和,雨量充沛,药材种类繁多;二是新疆南疆的喀什地区,较高的1月份最低温保证了植物的越冬需要,是植物栽培的必要条件。     

民勤绿洲-荒漠过渡带典型固沙植物生殖物候对气候变化的响应

通过对民勤绿洲-荒漠过渡带典型固沙植物多枝柽柳(Tamarix ramosissima)、梭梭(Haloxylon ammodendron)、白刺(Nitraria tangutorum)1974-2009年开花及结实物候的观测,结合同步观测的气象资料,分析了3种植物生殖物候特征对气候变化的响应规律。结果表明:(1)研究区年平均气温、年平均空气相对湿度呈增加趋势; 年降雨量波动,变幅不大; 20世纪90年代以来蒸发量呈显著下降趋势。(2)3种植物始花期提前,花期延长; 3种植物结实始期先延迟后缩短,结实期延长; (3)3种植物生殖物候与年降雨量、气温、空气相对湿度及前期累计降雨量、累计平均气温、累计空气相对湿度之间的相关性不一致; (4)3种植物始花期与前期累计降雨量、累计平均气温、累计空气相对湿度的相关性总体上表现为大于年降雨量、年均气温、年均空气相对湿度的相关性; 除空气平均相对湿度对结实始期影响大于前期累计降雨量、累计平均气温和累计空气相对湿度外,其他与开花物候相似,表明植物开花物候和结实物候与前期气象因子有着密切的关系,尤其是物候发生前期累计气象指标。     

1960—2017年太湖流域不同等级降水时空特征

基于太湖流域1960—2017年逐日降水数据,运用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法、R/S分析等方法,分析太湖流域不同等级降水的时空变化特征,并探讨了不同等级降水对年降水的影响。结果表明：1）近60年来,流域小雨发生率最高,为73.55%;年总降水量中,中雨量所占比例最大,为32.05%。小雨发生率呈显著减少趋势,暴雨贡献率呈显著增加趋势。2）太湖流域大雨、暴雨的降水量和降水日数都呈显著增加,小雨日数显著减少,小雨强度、年总降水强度显著增强。3）不同等级降水变化趋势的空间分布存在明显差异。小雨日数与年总降水日数,以及小雨强度与年总降水强度的变化趋势空间格局相一致。中雨日数、大雨日数、暴雨日数变化趋势的空间分布与其对应的降水量变化趋势的空间格局相似。4）R/S分析结果显示,小雨、暴雨、年总降水相关指标（小雨量除外）都表现出较强的持续性,未来变化趋势与过去相一致。5）近60年来,太湖流域年总降水量、降水日数、年总降水强度的变化,分别受中雨量、小雨日数、暴雨量的影响较大。在旱年流域年降水量偏少受大雨量减少的影响较大,而涝年年降水量偏多受暴雨增加的影响较大。     

Estimating the spatial and temporal impacts of climate change on rainfall reliability: An example in a Mediterranean agricultural region

Rainfall is the major driver of crop growth in Mediterranean agricultural regions and its spatial and temporal distributions determine yield potential. This study uses a long term spatial archive of rainfall observations for the Eyre Peninsula (South Australia) to estimate the spatial and temporal impacts of climate change on wheat yield. The three step process involved: (1) cluster analysis and statistical comparison to spatially distinguish heterogeneous “hazardscapes” (places that represent the physical susceptibility to hazards (Khan, 2012)); (2) using historical rainfall reliabilities to estimate the probability of receiving rainfall within a range of predefined thresholds and season for each hazardscape; (3) applying 2030 and 2070 climate change projections to determine the potential future impacts on rainfall. Nine hazardscapes were spatially differentiated each having temporally different historical seasonal rainfall reliabilities. Variations over space and time mean that the impacts of climate change will be spatially explicit. Projected rainfall reductions for 2030 showed marginal impact on hazardscapes with low seasonal reliabilities, primarily in winter and spring. The 2070 projections showed that some hazardscapes were unlikely to receive past rates of rainfall thus limiting the ongoing prospects of current and perhaps the potential adoption of alternative rain-fed land uses. Reductions in rainfall for hazardscapes with higher historical rainfall reliabilities will cause negative impacts on crop development. The ability to quantify the potential spatial and temporal impacts of climate change on seasonal trends will inform land managers' climate change mitigation and adaptation pathways.     

10个CMIP5模式预估中亚地区未来50 a降水时空变化特征

利用CRU月降水资料首先对参与IPCC第五次评估报告（IPCC AR5）的10个CMIP5模式对1951-2005年中亚地区年降水气候平均态、年际变率以及线性趋势等特征参数的模拟能力进行了系统评估,并选取具有较好模拟性能模式的未来预估试验结果作多模式集合平均预估未来50 a（2011-2060年）中亚地区在不同代表性浓度路径下降水量各特征参数的空间分布特征,结果表明：多数模式能够模拟出中亚地区年降水气候平均态、年际变率以及线性趋势的空间分布特征,同时发现中亚地区年降水量在过去50 a整体以轻微增加为主,趋势不显著。根据定量评估结果,从10个模式中选取4个具有较好模拟性能的模式结果做集合平均,同时利用历史回报试验数据进行检验,发现集合平均的模拟结果无论在量级还是高、低值中心的位置和范围与CRU资料非常接近。未来预估结果表明4种排放情景下4模式集合平均的中亚年降水在未来50 a增加较为明显,尤其在中国新疆南部（由低值区转变为高值区）。总体来看,未来50 a中亚降水增加趋势随着RCPs的增加而增加,且降水增加显著的区域随着RCPs的增加而明显增大。     

Local level rainfall and temperature variability in drought-prone districts of rural Sidama,central rift valley region of Ethiopia

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study is to examine local level spatiotemporal rainfall and temperature variability in drought-prone districts of rural Sidama, Central Rift Valley region of Ethiopia. The study used 129 gridded monthly rainfall and temperature data of 32 years (1983–2014). The gridded rainfall and temperature records were encoded into GIS software and evaluated through different statistical and geospatial techniques. Mann-Kendal rank test and F distribution tests were used to test temporal and spatial statistical significance, respectively, of the data. The analysis revealed that Belg and Kiremt are the main rainfall seasons, constituting 81% of the annual rainfall. Although annual, Kiremt, and Belg rainfall amounts appear to have decreased over time, the decreasing trend is statistically significant only for Belg rainfall records. On the other hand, rainfall standard anomaly results indicated seven droughts of different magnitudes: one extreme, two severe, and four moderate. The study also revealed increasing temperature trends over the years under consideration that are statistically significant. The findings of this study on rainfall contradict other findings obtained around the study area. Thus, climate change adaptations need to focus on location-specific climate data analysis so that the intended adaptive interventions can be successful.     

挠力河流域河流径流量对气候变化的敏感性分析

流域径流量对气候变化的敏感性分析是理解气候变化对流域水资源影响的重要手段。本文利用非更新式人工神经网络(ANN)模型,以年平均降雨、年最低气温和最高气温为输入参数,年平均径流量为输出变量,构建了三江平原挠力河流域的径流量预测ANN模型;并根据IPCC第四次报告的气候变化模式,设定了9种不同的气候变化情景,利用构建的ANN模型分析了流域径流量对气候变化的敏感性。结果表明:构建的人工神经网络模型能够较好的模拟径流量,可用于气候变化的敏感性分析;挠力河流域上游径流量对气候变化的敏感性要大于中游区域的,降水变化对径流量的影响大于气温对其产生的影响。     

中国内陆热带地区近40年气候变化特征

用西双版纳6个气象站40余年观测资料,探讨中国内陆热带地区气候变化特征及趋势。结果表明:西双版纳地区的平均气温、平均最低气温、平均最高气温总体上呈逐年增暖的趋势,其中平均气温上升率0.016 5～0.033 4℃/a,平均最低气温上升率0.008 6～0.038 7℃/a,平均最高气温上升率-0.001 4～0.018 6℃/a;降水长期变化特征则较复杂,规律不如气温明显,但总体趋势减少,年降水量变化主要决定于雨季降水量变化;相对湿度呈现逐年降低趋势。说明该地区气候向干热型转变。     

1960-2009年中国降雨侵蚀力的时空变化趋势

降雨侵蚀力反映了降雨对土壤侵蚀的潜在能力,因此降雨侵蚀力已经成为土壤侵蚀、产沙和水环境建模的主要参数之一。利用中国590个气象站1960-2009年逐日降雨量资料估算了中国每个气象站的降雨侵蚀力,并使用趋势系数、气候倾向率和Kriging空间插值方法分析了中国降雨侵蚀力的时空变化趋势。结果表明:我国年均降雨侵蚀力从东南沿海向西北内陆逐渐递减,与年均降水量空间分布基本一致;近50年来我国大部分地区年降雨侵蚀力呈现不显著的上升趋势,存在四个明显的上升区域和两个明显的下降区域;59个气象站年降雨侵蚀力变化趋势通过了0.05显著水平的置信度检验,年降雨侵蚀力显著增加的气象站主要分布在青藏高原中东部、东缘、天山山脉以及东南沿海区域。青海省的诺木洪-都兰-曲麻莱-伍道梁一带近50年来年降雨侵蚀力增加趋势最为显著,有可能加剧长江、黄河源头土壤侵蚀的风险。     

京津风沙源区植被的时空变化及其对气候因子的响应

利用2000—2008年的MODIS-NDVI遥感数据和34个站的气象数据,分析了京津风沙源区植被变化的空间分布范围及其与气候因子的关系。即利用坡度分析定量地估算了京津风沙源区植被覆盖的时空变化;分别计算降雨、温度及相对湿度与植被变化的相关系数,并进行显著性检验。结果表明:2000—2008年京津风沙源区植被覆盖整体呈上升趋势,其中上升区域占74%,显著上升区域占9.83%;气候整体上变化规律不强,降雨和气温都存在一定的增加趋势,但各年波动性较大;气候因子中降雨与生长季NDVI最大值相关性最强,两者整体变化趋势一致,80.11%的区域为正相关,3.17%的区域为显著正相关;降雨和NDVI相关的显著性不强及不完全同步性,可能是源于工程和非工程等人为因素的干扰。     

阿尔金山-祁连山山地植被垂直带谱分布及地学分析

本文揭示阿尔金-祁连山区垂直带谱空间分布模式并进行地学解释。研究表明:北坡荒漠草原带的上限具有随经度变化的二次曲线分布模式,草原带的上限分布为线性模式,亚冰雪带的分布与7月份气温的零度层分布模式基本相同;北坡镜铁山以西的带谱中没有森林带,以东含有森林带,分布在2500³300米的高度范围内。利用气象台站的地面及高空数据,计算了湿度———生长季平均温度露点差随海拔变化的梯度、多年平均温度、1月多年均温、多年平均降水指标以解释带谱分布,结果表明:由东向西,湿度梯度增大,以酒泉为界,西侧的露点温度差梯度大于0.12℃/100米,东部小于0.09℃/100米,与北坡山地森林带分布基本吻合。     

近50年安徽省气候舒适度变化特征及区划研究

利用安徽省70个台站1961-2010年逐日平均气温、风速和相对湿度,根据气候舒适度评价模型,计算得到安徽省气候舒适度时空分布特征,在此基础上通过GIS空间插值对气候舒适度进行综合区划和评价。结果表明：安徽省气候舒适度有明显的季节变化和区域分布特征,季节上每年4-10月气候总体舒适,而11月-次年3月气候相对不舒适;空...     

Impacts of future climate change on agroclimatic resources in Northeast China

In this study, the spatial distribution and changing trends of agricultural heat and precipitation resources in Northeast China were analyzed to explore the impacts of future climate changes on agroclimatic resources in the region. This research is based on the output meteorological data from the regional climate model system for Northeast China from 2005 to 2099, under low and high radiative forcing scenarios RCP4.5 (low emission scenario) and RCP8.5 (high emission scenario) as proposed in IPCC AR5. Model outputs under the baseline scenario, and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were assimilated with observed data from 91 meteorological stations in Northeast China from 1961 to 2010 to perform the analyses. The results indicate that: (1) The spatial distribution of temperature decreases from south to north, and the temperature is projected to increase in all regions, especially under a high emission scenario. The average annual temperature under the baseline scenario is 7.70°C, and the average annual temperatures under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are 9.67°C and 10.66°C, respectively. Other agricultural heat resources change in accordance with temperature changes. Specifically, the first day with temperatures ≥10°C arrives 3 to 4 d earlier, the first frost date is delayed by 2 to 6 d, and the duration of the growing season is lengthened by 4 to 10 d, and the accumulated temperature increases by 400 to 700°C·d. Water resources exhibit slight but not significant increases. (2) While the historical temperature increase rate is 0.35°C/10a, the rate of future temperature increase is the highest under the RCP8.5 scenario at 0.48°C/10a, compared to 0.19°C/10a under the RCP4.5 scenario. In the later part of this century, the trend of temperature increase is significantly faster under the RCP8.5 scenario than under the RCP4.5 scenario, with faster increases in the northern region. Other agricultural heat resources exhibit similar trends as temperature, but with different specific spatial distributions. Precipitation in the growing season generally shows an increasing but insignificant trend in the future, with relatively large yearly fluctuations. Precipitation in the eastern region is projected to increase, while a decrease is expected in the western region. The future climate in Northeast China will change towards higher temperature and humidity. The heat resource will increase globally, however its disparity with the change in precipitation may negatively affect agricultural activities.     

Modelling the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall: a case study in the wet and dry tropics of North East Australia

Rainfall regimes with strong spatial and temporal variation are characteristic of many coastal regions of north and eastern Australia. In coastal regions of north eastern Australia, regimes vary considerably over short distances. This occurs because of changes in local topography, including the height and orientation of mountain ranges and the direction of the coastline with respect to the prevailing moist south east air stream. Northern Australia experiences a tropical monsoon climate with rainfall occurring predominantly during the summer months. Areas with a closer proximity to the coast typically experience the heavier rainfalls. While networks of rainfall gauges have been established and continuous records are available for most of these stations from the 1890s, their low distribution density relative to the complexity of rainfall pattern they are required to represent means that there remains a poor understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall in the wet tropics. An enhanced knowledge of rainfall distribution in both space and time has the potential to deliver significant economic and environmental benefits to managers of natural resources. This paper reports on the application of a technique for estimating mean annual and mean monthly rainfall across the Herbert River catchment of north east Australia's dry and wet tropics. The technique utilises thin plate smoothing splines to incorporate both location and elevation into estimates of rainfall distribution. We demonstrate that the method can be applied successfully at the meso scale and within the domain of routinely available data. As such, the method has broad relevance for decision making.     

Assessment of Climate Suitability for Human Settlements in Tibet,China

Climate is an important factor that affects the livability of a region. The climate suitability of a region’s environment for human settlement profoundly affects the regional socio-economic development and the population distribution. Tibet is an area that is sensitive to climate change. Given the impact of global climate change, the climate suitability of Tibet has undergone significant changes. In this study, the temperature humidity index (THI) values for Tibet were calculated, and the relationships between the population distribution and the THI were analyzed quantitatively. In this way, the zoning standards for climate suitability in Tibet were determined such that the climate suitability could be evaluated. The results show that the average annual temperature in the southeast of Tibet, where the population was densely distributed, was relatively high. The mean annual relative humidity showed a trend of gradually decreasing from south to north. Regions with a suitable climate, including the high suitability areas (HSAs), the moderately suitable areas (MSAs) and the low suitability areas (LSAs), accounted for only 7.90% of the total area but accommodated over 40% of the total population. The critically suitable areas (CSAs) accounted for 37.81% of the land area and 48.24% of the total population. Non-suitable areas (NSAs) were widely distributed in Tibet and accounted for 54.29% of the total area and 11.33% of the total population. The results of this study may provide a reference for guiding the reasonable distribution of population and promoting the optimization of the spatial planning in Tibet.     

金沙江下游地区水文特征

根据四川与云南两省水文手册和水文年鉴,及攀枝花水文站、金阳气象站、雷波气象站等资料,分析论述了该区降雨、径流、洪水等的水文环境特征。     

区域地理环境因素对宁夏泾源县儿童呼吸系统疾病的影响

选取宁夏泾源县儿童呼吸系统疾病作为研究对象,运用时间序列及空间分析方法分析儿童呼吸系统疾病发病的区域时空分布规律,使用地理探测器方法探究区域环境影响因素。结果表明：温度、降水、相对湿度、风速以及社会经济因素等均会对儿童呼吸系统疾病发病有影响。在时间上,泾源县儿童呼吸系统疾病发病与月平均气温及月降水量之间存在显著负相关性,气温与降水的季节性差异导致泾源县儿童呼吸系统疾病也表现出明显的季节性特征;在空间上,儿童呼吸系统疾病呈现“中部高,南北低”的特点,整体发病率重心向南部偏移。各区域地理环境因素对儿童呼吸系统疾病的影响存在空间差异性,表明地区温度、湿度、风速以及当地社会经济因素等在不同程度上影响了儿童呼吸系统疾病的空间分布。