中国城市化发展质量的综合测度与提升路径

城市化质量是经济城市化质量、社会城市化质量和空间城市化质量的有机统一,城市化发展质量的提升是加快推进我国城市化进程健康发展的关键。本文借助象限图法,通过对城市化质量、速度与城市化水平互动协调关系的分析,从经济、社会、空间三方面提出了由三类指标、12项具体指标组成的城市化发展质量综合测度的三维指标球及判别标准值,引进阿特...     

城市化速度曲线及其政策启示——对诺瑟姆曲线的讨论与发展

诺瑟姆提出的城市化S形曲线是城市地理学的经典理论成果,对它在中国的应用却存在曲解。根据诺瑟姆原文,不是所有国家的城市化水平都能达到100%,城市化水平在30%到70%之间也不是一直处于加速状态;进而推导出城市化速度变化的四阶段倒"U"形曲线:孕育阶段、加速阶段、减速阶段、趋零阶段。其政策含义和启示在于:城市化速度变化有其规律,不能拔苗助长;中国已经迈过城市化速度的拐点,加速城市化不应是长期的主旋律;城市化依然是主要发展方向和趋势;中国城市化理念与重点均需转型;城市化与包容性增长、城乡统筹和农民工市民化是"十二五"时期的主要任务。     

中国石化产业空间组织的演进历程与机制

本文研究了中国石化产业空间组织的演进及格局,探讨了其影响因子及作用机制。研究认为,中国石化产业空间组织经历了内陆分散布局、沿海局部快速集聚及沿海全面加速扩张三个阶段。经过60年发展,中国已形成了“十大石化产业基地”.原材料、市场和政策因素是影响中国石化产业空间组织的三大主导因素,各因素在不同阶段的作用强度存在差异。在石化产业发展的早期,原材料是影响石化产业布局的主要因素,在此因素的影响下,中国石化产业主要布局在原油丰富的东北和西北地区。改革开放以来,随着工业化和城市化进程的加快,市场成为影响石化产业空间布局的主导因素,中国石化产业开始向沿海局部地区布局。2000年以来,在原材料、市场、政策等多种因素驱动下,石化产业加速向沿海地区集聚,沿海石化产业带初步形成,无序扩张态势初现端倪。     

Regional differences in the health status of Chinese residents: 2003–2013

Health inequality is an increasing concern worldwide. Using the coefficient of variation, Theil index, exploratory spatial data analysis, and spatial panel econometric model, we examined the regional inequality, spatio-temporal dynamic patterns, and key factors in the health status of Chinese residents from 2003 to 2013. We found that China’s residential health index (RHI) decreased from 0.404 to 0.295 in 2003–2013 at an annual rate of 2.698%. Spatially, resident health status, based on the RHI, has improved faster in the western region than in the eastern and central regions. Inequality in resident health status continued to increase between 2003 and 2013; inequality between regions decreased, but health status inequality expanded within regions. Furthermore, disparities in health status grew faster in western regions than in the eastern and central regions. The spatial distribution of resident health status formed a “T-shaped” pattern across China, decreasing from east to center then to the west with a symmetric decrease north and south. Using the change in Moran’s I from 2003 to 2008 and 2013, we found that the distribution of resident health status across China has narrowed. All the hot spots and cold spots have decreased, but they are also stable. Resident health status formed a stable cold spot in the western regions, while the east coastal area formed a stable hot spot. Selected explanatory variables have significant direct impacts on resident health status in China: increasing per capita GDP, per capita spending on health, and urbanization, and improving environmental quality all lead to better resident health status. Finally, we highlight the need for additional research on regional inequality of resident health status across multiple time, spatial, and factor domains.     

中美航空客运网络层次结构和地域系统对比分析

美国民航1978年彻底市场化以来已经历30多年的发展,航空网络趋于成熟。我国民航也在经历市场化改革,机场属地化完成至今已近10年,运量快速增长、高铁建设等因素正剧烈地影响着网络演变。对比中美两国航空网络有利于判断我国航线网络和机场体系的演变趋势,对于我国民航发展具有借鉴意义。以中国大陆地区和美国本土48个州作为研究区,运用交通地理信息系统和VBA等技术,从绝对联系和首位联系两个角度,对当前中美两国航空客运网络层次结构和地域系统进行分析与对比。研究发现:中国航空客运网络已表现出一定的轴辐体系,但一级枢纽较少、客运压力过大,且航空枢纽重东南、轻中西;美国航空客运网络的轴辐体系已趋向完善,各大枢纽和重要城市之间的内部空间联系非常密切。进而,提出了一些政策性建议,以期对我国航空客运网络未来的空间发展形式和方向提供借鉴。     

广东省区域经济差异的方向及影响机制

区域差异已成为中国经济高速增长背后的一大隐忧,如何实现区域经济协调发展是中国经济社会发展的核心议题,也是近年来国内外研究的热点命题。基于“最优尺度-总体趋势-差异方向-机制因素”的框架,综合运用传统总体差异指数、尺度方差及其分解、特定方向差异指数（PDI 指数）和多水平回归分析对1978-2011 年广东省区域经济差异进行了综合测度和分析。研究表明：① 尺度方差及其构成大小依次排列为县级、地级和区级,即尺度越小,尺度方差越大,对区域经济差异的贡献份额也越大。② 自改革开放以来,广东区域经济总体差异呈增大趋势,并出现波动性变化。③ 广东区域经济空间差异的主要方向是珠三角核心区与边缘地区之间,核心区与边缘区的差距扩大,省内沿海地区与内陆地区的差异微弱上升,市区与外围区的差异缩小。④ 全球化、简政放权、投资水平和市场化是导致区域经济差异的最重要的四个机制因素;全球化和投资是促进区域经济差异加剧的重要直接驱动力,简政放权则间接促进了区域经济差异的变大,而市场化能够潜在地促进区域平衡发展,缓和区域经济差异。     

Regional Inequality in China: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province

The tremendous changes in China's development philosophy and regional economies during the last two decades have carved out selectively new locations of development across the nation. While politicians heatedly debate the acceptable levels of regional inequality, most scholarly studies focus on broad aggregate trends of inequality among provinces and groups of provinces, and pay little attention to identifying and conceptualizing sources and major agents of spatial change. This paper aims at revealing detailed spatial ramifications of the reforms, and at understanding the impacts of the state, local agents, and foreign investors on regional development. To this effect, we conduct a disaggregated and empirical study of Jiangsu, a coastal province experiencing dramatic economic and spatial restructuring. We show that local agents which favor rural industrial enterprises accelerated new growth in selected rural areas, in contrast to slower growth of older cities and state‐owned enterprises, resulting in a net decline of intercounty inequality. But the coalescence of state policy, local agents, and foreign investment has widened the historical gap between northern and southern Jiangsu, and is likely to accelerate intercounty inequality in the future. Our study demonstrates the utility of the “developments from above, below and outside” framework for analyzing key forces of regional growth in socialist transitional economies.     

A Review of “The Middle East Today: Political,Geographical and Cultural Perspectives”

The tremendous changes in China's development philosophy and regional economies during the last two decades have carved out selectively new locations of development across the nation. While politicians heatedly debate the acceptable levels of regional inequality, most scholarly studies focus on broad aggregate trends of inequality among provinces and groups of provinces, and pay little attention to identifying and conceptualizing sources and major agents of spatial change. This paper aims at revealing detailed spatial ramifications of the reforms, and at understanding the impacts of the state, local agents, and foreign investors on regional development. To this effect, we conduct a disaggregated and empirical study of Jiangsu, a coastal province experiencing dramatic economic and spatial restructuring. We show that local agents which favor rural industrial enterprises accelerated new growth in selected rural areas, in contrast to slower growth of older cities and state-owned enterprises, resulting in a net decline of intercounty inequality. But the coalescence of state policy, local agents, and foreign investment has widened the historical gap between northern and southern Jiangsu, and is likely to accelerate intercounty inequality in the future. Our study demonstrates the utility of the “developments from above, below and outside” framework for analyzing key forces of regional growth in socialist transitional economies.     

基于Logistic模型的中国城镇化演进阶段特征及趋势探析

加快推进中国城镇化进程是十八大提出的重要发展战略,科学揭示城镇化演进规律及趋势,对指导城镇化健康、可持续发展具有重要借鉴意义。依据Northam城镇化发展阶段划分思想,基于Logistic模型,借助SPSS分析软件,采用回归分析方法,对中国城镇化发展前景进行了预测,并对城镇化发展三阶段的特征点进行了探索。结果表明：（1）2020、2030、2040、2050年,中国城镇化率将分别达到57.52%、65.09%、70.53%、74.16%。（2）城镇化发展速度极值点出现在2002～2003年,极值点处发展速度为1.068个百分点·a-1,城镇化水平为40%左右,加速度两个极值点分别出现在1978年、2028年前后,两极值点城镇化发展速度均为0.712个百分点·a-1,城镇化水平分别为16.90%、63.09%。（3）中国城镇化加速发展起始时间点为改革开放初,持续时长为49.32 a,2028年前后发展速度将趋于平缓,加速发展期内年平均时速为0.94个百分点·a-1,由此得到的启示为：中国城镇化发展尚存较大空间,未来积极推进城镇化建设,契合城镇化演进规律;适度控制城镇化发展速度,发展速度以1个百分点·a-1为宜;既要重视城镇化发展速度,更要重视城镇化发展质量。研究结果可为管理层制定城镇化发展规划及政策提供理论参考。     

中国城市市政基础设施水平影响因子及非均衡性——基于城市分层分析框架

采用因子分析、空间统计分析、总体差异指数及分解等方法,分析2006年、2011年、2016年中国36个重点城市,253个普通地级市和338个县级市的市政基础设施因子、非均衡性及与经济发展水平关系的演变情况.研究表明:①不同层级城市市政基础设施的因子、非均衡性、空间分布及演变情况既有共同点,也有不同点.②"十八大"以来,...     

Semi-urbanization and evolving patterns of urbanization in China: Insights from the 2000 to 2010 national censuses

Based on the prefecture-level data of the 2000 and 2010 national censuses, the spatial evolution of China’s semi-urbanization is analyzed in this study. The stages of urbanization are re-examined by considering semi-urbanization. Nine types of urban development are presented according to the relations between semi-urbanization and urbanization, and China’s urbanization is divided into five stages, namely, high incoordination, incoordination, low coordination, coordination, and high coordination. Results show that China’s semi-urbanization rate varies significantly from one area to another; its order in 2010 from the highest to the lowest value was as follows: east, middle, west, and northeast. Urbanization and semi-urbanization rates in inland cities increase much faster than those in coastal cities. In addition, semi-urbanization displays a spatial pattern similar to that of urbanization across China, with the sole exception of the northeastern region. Through a spatial autocorrelation analysis, the spatial concentration of semi-urbanization is determined to be increasing. High-value concentration areas are expanding in the coastal east, whereas low-value concentration areas are growing in the northeast. Lastly, the evolution of China’s urbanization model suggests a weakening trend of coordination between urbanization and semi-urbanization over the studied decade. Semi-urbanization can be viewed as a special production of China’s hukou system, which restricts the permanent settlement of migrants in cities. As such, China’s semi-urbanization trend is expected to exhibit a reversed U-shaped pattern as urbanization and citizenization develop.     

2000年以来东北地区城市化空间分异的时空演变分析

以东北地区34个地级市为研究对象,以四维一体为研究视角,综合构建了东北地区城市化测度指标体系,基于时序分析、面板分析以及空间分析等方法,分4个时期对2000年以来东北地区城市化空间分异的时空演变特征进行研究,结果表明：① 投资与消费是影响东北地区城市化发展的主要因素,其城市化兼有“自上而下”与“自下而上”双重性质;② 东北地区城市化尚处于低水平阶段,属于粗放式、低效益型的城市化发展模式;③ 东北地区城市化整体分异与子系统分异特征明显,2000~2008年阶段综合城市化水平由北向南递增,2008~2012年阶段则向南递减,与人口城市化具有一致性的变化特征。而经济城市化、社会城市化、空间城市化则逐年向南递增;④ 东北地区城市化水平东中西分异与沿海内陆分异特征显著,均具有时序性特点。基于研究成果,提出自然条件的基础作用、产业结构优化升级的内部驱动、交通条件的空间导向以及政策和体制的调控约束是东北地区城市化空间分异的整体机制,而东北地区南北城市化分异程度不断缩小主要由于区域发展阶段演进周期理论。     

粤北城镇企业型单位大院物质空间演化类型及贫困特征——以广东省乐昌市棉纺厂大院为例

单位大院是在中国工业化和城市化早期单位制下出现的特殊复合型地域类型。随着单位制消除和市场经济的日益完善、倡导功能分区的城市规划,单位大院逐渐成为边缘化的地理单元。已有研究多关注北方大城市单位大院空间形态演变模式及其对城市的影响,缺乏针对南方小城镇单位大院特别是其贫困演化过程的细致解剖。文章以广东乐昌市棉纺厂大院为案例,通过问卷调查和深度访谈,结合GIS空间分析、社会网络分析方法,探讨企业型单位大院从物质空间到内在群体的贫困演化类型及特征。结果表明：1）粤北城镇企、事业单位大院留存情况相异,且各企业型大院的解构过程也不同;2）企业型单位大院与城市贫困集聚区重合度较高,有贫困固化和结构性贫困特征,居民活动空间被动拓展,女性居民个人活动时间受压;3）大院居民社会网络具有密度大、强联系特征,不利于该群体向外拓展和向上攀升,进一步固化了贫困。     

WHITHER CHINA'S MARKET ECONOMY? THE CASE OF LIJIN ZHEN

ABSTRACT. Soon after Deng Xiaoping became China's premier in 1978, a program of reform and openness was initiated. Its goals were to introduce free-market mechanisms into the command economy, to eliminate Mao-era inefficiencies, and to bring China to parity with developed countries of the West and to a leadership role among Asia's newly industrialized countries. Drastic changes quickly transformed China's planned economy into one of mixed-market socialism. Although the economic achievements have been impressive and commendable at the national and provincial levels, questions have been raised as to the role of economic reform and openness in the growth and development of Chinese cities. To answer them, we examine Lijin Zhen, the seat of Lijin County, Shandong Province.     

Work,Home, and Market: The Social Transformation of Housing Space in Guangzhou,China

Principal components analysis of small-area data provided by China's 2000 Population Census shows that major new economic and social forces largely shape the spatial composition of housing in Guangzhou. This is generally manifested in a series of concentric rings: the old urban core, the middle zone of reform housing, and the outer ring of new commodity housing. In addition, urban villages punctuate the metropolitan landscape. Corresponding analysis of sociodemographic attributes depict a metropolis in transition, with market elements and choice-based housing decisions beginning to impinge on the urban fabric. However, the deeply entrenched socialist institutions established during the early years of the People's Republic ensure the continuing dominance of the workplace and occupational attributes as factors structuring China's metropolitan space.     

Temporal and spatial differences and imbalance of China＇s urbanization development during 1950-2006

A better understanding of the regional disparity and imbalance characteristics of China’s urbanization development is the important premise for constituting correct policy and strategy and promoting the healthy and sustainable development of urbanization in the 21st century. The regional differences of China’s urbanization level have close relations with natural conditions of landform and climate etc., the urbanization level reduces with the elevation of topography and decrease of precipitation. According to the statistical data set of urbanization in 1950–2006, the temporal change course of inter-provincial disparity of Chinese urbanization level since the founding of New China in 1949 was studied, and then the inter-regional and intra-regional disparities of urbanization development were analyzed by the Theil index and its nested decomposition method, to grasp the dynamic change of spatial disparities of China’s urbanization level on the whole. Using the imbalance index model, the imbalance status of urban population distribution relative to total population, grain output, total agricultural output value, gross output value of industry, tertiary industrial output value as well as gross regional product was discussed, to hold the balance characteristics of urbanization development relative to the regional development conditions from the macroscopic scales.     

Space,scale, and regional inequality in provincial China: A spatial filtering approach

This paper investigates regional inequality and development in China's Guangdong province by employing the multi-scale and multi-mechanism framework. The study further examines the relationship between space, scale, and regional inequality by applying a spatial filtering method that eliminates spatial dependence of the data and quantifies the extent to which spatial effects have contributed to regional inequality at multiple scales. The results suggest that over 90% of the divide between the core of the Pearl River Delta (PRD) and the periphery areas of Guangdong province can be explained by the effect of strengthening spatial dependence. By incorporating spatial filters in space-time models, we also reveal the space-time and core-periphery heterogeneities of development mechanisms. Our study confirms that the integration of a multi-scale and multi-mechanism framework and rigorous spatial analysis methods, such as spatial filtering and space-time modeling, helps better understand the complexity of regional development in China.     

Urbanization of Capital or Capitalization on Urban Land? Land Development and Local Public Finance in Urbanizing China

This study examines the relationship between urban land development and municipal finance in a Chinese regional economy undergoing rapid urbanization. Drawing upon insights from the perspective of political economy, this study analyzes how municipalities in coastal Jiangsu Province have engaged in the land-dominated urbanization process, and the developmental landscape that has emerged from the new approach toward local public finance. Land development has not functioned simply as a passive outcome of urbanization, but has been actively pursued by local governments as a means of revenue generation to finance local economic growth. An inverse correlation is found between the growth of land conveyance income and the level of the regional economies in China's administrative hierarchy. We call for greater attention to be directed to the interrelationship between land development, local public finance, and urbanization in the ongoing transformation of the Chinese political economy.     

21世纪中国城市未来的软规划与生态文明建设

文章旨在通过理念性的探讨,试就“中国在日益深入地参与全球贸易和投资中所面临的主要挑战”这一议题激发大家的讨论。文章论述了当代城市化理论现状、城市化和可持续发展之间的关系对中国国家发展目标的影响以及中国21世纪面临的发展挑战,认为：1）中国应注重基于本土发展经验的理论知识构建,以指导自身的城市化道路。特别地,中国需要平衡经济增长与可持续发展之间的关系,充分利用和部署生态资本,推动生态文明建设;2）以部署生态资本为重心的“软规划”在未来规划中将占据更重要的地位,为此需要进行体制改革、机构重组以及加强政府部门与私营部门和民间社会之间的合作;3）扩展型都市区可在生态文明建设中发挥更大作用,努力打造一个可持续的、宜居的和有经济活力的体制性框架,从而为“一带一路”倡议提出的国际贸易和投资深化发展提供基础。     

21世纪以来中国城镇化动力机制分析

以省区为基本单元,借鉴欧向军等人提出的四维分析视角,构建综合指标体系,结合面板数据分析、时序分析、空间分析等方法,对2000年以来我国城镇化发展的动力机制加以考察。面板数据分析发现市场力、行政力以及内源力作用较强,而外向力作用较弱,反映了我国城镇化动力机制的内生性特点。时序分析发现新世纪以来城镇化动力机制具有较强的动态性与趋势性,虽然金融危机会对动力组成结构产生一定的扰动,但是在长时间尺度上,内源力作用逐渐上升而行政力作用逐渐下降将成为必然的趋势。而空间分析显示,市场力与内源力具有一定的历史依赖性,优势地区将继续保持领先,落后地区继续维持落后状态。随着市场力的不断稳固和内源力的持续增长,城镇化不平衡发展的趋势将加剧。增加行政力的宏观调控作用,促进城镇化动力的多元化是缓解这一不平衡的重要策略。