1987-2007年土耳其伊斯坦布尔黑海沿岸土地利用变化(英文)

Recently,important land use changes have occurred in the Black Sea coastal regions of stanbul due to urban growth and population increases.The objective of this study was to determine changes in land use in the Black Sea coastal regions of stanbul between 1987 and 2007.Landsat 30 m satellite images from 1987 and 2007 are used in the study.The study area is 1000 m in width from the coastline to the land and the study has been carried out using the controlled classification method to classify areas into residential,agricultural,forest,bare land,brush/grassland,and lake/pond land classes.Land use changes between 1987 and 2007 were analysed in detail.Residential areas of the Black Sea coastal regions of stanbul increased by 122% over the two decades.Also an increase of 55% in agriculture areas was observed,while there were decreases of 26% in forest areas and 15% in free land.A 21% increase in the area of brush and grassland took place.Furthermore 79% of the study area was covered by residential areas in 2007.It is probable that pressure on the stanbul coastal regions will continue due to migraton and rapid urbanization.Therefore,Istanbul’s Black Sea coastal regions should be maintained using a sustainable coastal management plan.     

Predicting 21st century global agricultural land use with a spatially and temporally explicit regression-based model

The extensive alteration of the earth's land cover during the anthropocene had widespread, and in some cases unknown, effects on terrestrial and atmospheric conditions and processes. Predicting future changes to the earth system therefore mandate a future-predicting framework of land use dynamics. However while future-predicting earth surface and atmospheric models tend to explicitly incorporate projected climatic conditions they all but ignore or overly simplify land use dynamics. As most surface and atmosphere dynamics models use gridded input datasets, and land use is a highly spatially-dynamic phenomena, a need clearly arise for spatially explicit representation of future land use dynamics. While a number of such datasets exists at regional and country scales, no fully gridded future-predicting global land use model and database has been reported to date. Here we present the Global Land Use Dynamics Model (GLUDM), a gridded and temporally explicit agricultural land use predictor. GLUDM calculates the relative area of a land use category (e.g. cropland) in each grid-cell by generating unique regression coefficients in each grid-cell based on local historic trends and global population dynamics. Spatial expansions or abandonment of agricultural land is simulated by propagating excesses or deficiencies in agricultural areas between neighboring grid-cells. This spatial connectivity is restricted by topographic, latitudinal and urban characteristics. A validation analysis shows that GLUDM corresponds well to observed land use distribution. GLUDM-predicted global cropland area dynamics between 2005 and 2100 are described herein. Globally, 18% increase in cropland area is predicted between 2005 and 2050 which corresponds very well to previous estimations. Following 2050, a general decrease in cropland area is predicted. The results reveal new insights about global cropland dynamics, demonstrating, for example, that changes in its spatial distribution will be highly heterogeneous, at both micro and macro scales, in some locations worldwide.     

千岛湖镇土地利用变化及其驱动力分析

利用GIS和Logistic回归分析方法,在分析千岛湖镇1993～2004年土地利用变化特征的基础上探讨其变化的驱动力,揭示了千岛湖镇土地利用的时空分异特征。结果表明:土地利用变化以城镇及工矿用地的输入和林地的输出为主要特点;耕地、林地、未利用地和其它未利用地的转出面积超过转入面积,而园地、其它农用地、交通用地、水利设施用地和城镇及工矿用地则相反;自然因素、城镇化、农业结构调整、比较经济利益、交通条件和政策因素是引起其土地利用变化的主要驱动力因子,距一级干道的距离是最重要的自然驱动因子。     

Land use change of Kitakyushu based on landscape ecology and Markov model

Based on four phases of TM images acquired in 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005, this paper took Kitakyushu in Japan as a case study to analyze spatial change of land use landscape and corresponding effects on environmental issues guided by landscape ecology theory in virtue of combining technology of Remote Sensing with GIS. Firstly, land use types were divided into 6 classes (farmland, mountain, forestland, water body, urban land and unused land) according to national classification standard of land use, comprehensible ability of TM image and purpose of this study. Secondly, following the theory of landscape ecology analysis, 11 typical landscape indices were abstracted to evaluate the environmental effects and spatial feature changes of land use. Research results indicated that land use has grown more and more diversified and unbalanced, human activities have disturbed the landscape more seriously. Finally, transfer matrix of Markov was applied to forecast change process of land use in the future different periods, and then potential land use changes were also simulated from 2010 to 2050. Results showed that conversion tendency for all types of land use in Kitakyushu into urban construction land were enhanced. The study was anticipated to help local authorities better understand and address a complex land use system, and develop improved land use management strategies that could better balance urban expansion and ecological conservation.     

Spatial-temporal change in urban agricultural land use efficiency from the perspective of agricultural multi-functionality: A case study of the Xi’an metropolitan zone

The excessive expansion of urbanized areas has resulted in haphazard land utilization, immoderate consumption of superior agricultural land and water resources, significant fragmentation of agricultural landscape, and gradual deterioration of the agro-ecological environment. Combined, these factors cause poor land use efficiency. Under these circumstances, comprehensively assessing land use efficiency for urban agriculture is a key issue in land use research. Currently, evaluation methods for agricultural land use efficiency narrowly concentrate on aspects of economic input and output. However, urban agro-ecosystems can provide diverse economic, social, and ecological services and functions. In particular, the social and ecological services and functions originating from agricultural land, which have a higher value than economic services, play a significant role in ensuring regional social, ecological, and environmental security. However, recent research has rarely taken these benefits into consideration. Therefore, land use value has been greatly underestimated, which has resulted in mishandled and poor land use policies. In this study, we apply Landsat imagery and social and economic statistical data for the Xi’an metropolitan zone (XMZ) to investigate agricultural multi-functionality. We develop an evaluation framework for urban agricultural land use efficiency and identify agro-ecosystem services and functions as important outputs from agricultural land. The land use efficiency of urban agriculture is then evaluated using ecosystem services models, providing a mechanism for assessing spatial-temporal changes in land use efficiency in the XMZ from 1999 to 2015. Four important conclusions are reached from this analysis. First, the rapid urbanization and agricultural transformation from traditional cereal cultivation to modern urban agriculture has resulted in steadily increasing costs, outputs, and land use efficiency of urban agriculture. The total output value increased 41% and land use efficiency per hectare increased by 33.13% on average. Second, the spatial patterns of comprehensive output and land use efficiency were dominated by economic outputs from agricultural land. Areas near cities, which are dominated by orchard and arable land, provide more economic functions. These areas support and regulate services due to the transformation from extensive cereal production to intensive modern urban agriculture; therefore, they have higher output value and land use efficiency. In contrast, areas distant from cities, towns, and high traffic roads, namely, remote rural areas, provide more support and regulating services, but have relatively lower economic function due to inaccessibility to urban markets and slow agricultural transformation. Therefore, these areas have lower output value and land use efficiency. The spatial change in agricultural output and land use efficiency in urban areas is strongly dependent on the degree of urbanization and agricultural transformation. Third, the total output value and land use efficiency of urban agriculture measured with our approach are much higher than evaluations using traditional methods. However, the spatial patterns measured using the two approaches are in agreement. The evaluation framework integrates ecological services and economic and social functions into a comprehensive output from agricultural land. This approach is more methodical and accurate for evaluating the comprehensive efficiency of land use based on quantities and spatial scale because they are at the pixel scale. Finally, the evaluation results have important implications for enhancing current agricultural subsidies and even implementing ecological payment policies in China. Most importantly, they can be directly applied to agricultural transformation regulations, decision- making, and guidance for rational land utilization.     

基于景观生态学和马尔可夫模型的日本北九州土地利用分析

Based on four phases of TM images acquired in 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005, this paper took Kitakyushu in Japan as a case study to analyze spatial change of land use landscape and corresponding effects on environmental issues guided by landscape ecology theory in virtue of combining technology of Remote Sensing with GIS. Firstly, land use types were divided into 6 classes （farmland, mountain, forestland, water body, urban land and unused land） according to national classification standard of land use, comprehensible ability of TM image and purpose of this study. Secondly, following the theory of landscape ecology analysis, 11 typical landscape indices were abstracted to evaluate the environmental effects and spatial feature changes of land use. Research results indicated that land use has grown more and more diversified and unbalanced, human activities have disturbed the landscape more seriously. Finally, transfer matrix of Markov was applied to forecast change process of land use in the future different periods, and then potential land use changes were also simulated from 2010 to 2050. Results showed that conversion tendency for all types of land use in Kitakyushu into urban construction land were enhanced. The study was anticipated to help local authorities better understand and address a complex land use system, and develop improved land use management strategies that could better balance urban expansion and ecological conservation.     

Changes in land use/cover mapped over 80 years in the Highlands of Northern Ethiopia

Despite many studies on land degradation in the Highlands of Northern Ethiopia, quantitative information regarding long-term changes in land use/cover (LUC) is rare. Hence, this study aims to investigate the LUC changes in the Geba catchment (5142 km²), Northern Ethiopia, over 80 years (1935–2014). Aerial photographs (APs) of the 1930s and Google Earth (GE) images (2014) were used. The point-count technique was utilized by overlaying a grid on APs and GE images. The occurrence of cropland, forest, grassland, shrubland, bare land, built-up areas and water body was counted to compute their fractions. A multivariate adaptive regression spline was applied to identify the explanatory factors of LUC and to create fractional maps of LUC. The results indicate significant changes of most types, except for forest and cropland. In the 1930s, shrubland (48%) was dominant, followed by cropland (39%). The fraction of cropland in 2014 (42%) remained approximately the same as in the 1930s, while shrubland significantly dropped to 37%. Forests shrank further from a meagre 6.3% in the 1930s to 2.3% in 2014. High overall accuracies (93% and 83%) and strong Kappa coefficients (89% and 72%) for point counts and fractional maps respectively indicate the validity of the techniques used for LUC mapping.     

都市农业景观破碎化过程对生态系统服务价值的影响——以西安市为例

利用西安市土地利用解译图及社会经济数据,在界定都市农业景观的前提下,分析西安市都市农业景观破碎化过程,在此基础上分析都市农业景观破碎化对生态系统服务价值的影响。结果表明：① 1999-2011 年,西安市都市农业景观的斑块密度、分离度指数增加,都市农业景观呈破碎化趋势;② 都市农业景观分离度与都市农业生态系统服务总价值及各项价值均呈较强的负相关关系;破碎化过程中废物处理及土壤形成价值减少量最大,同时食物生产价值减少率最大,减少了12.73%,娱乐文化减少的价值量及减少率最小,为1.93%;③ 耕地、林地、水域呈景观破碎化趋势,而园地聚集度上升,同时耕地、林地、水域的生态系统服务价值下降,园地生态系统服务价值增加。     

Modeling the spatio-temporal changes in land uses and its impacts on ecosystem services in Northeast China over 2000–2050

Land use and its dynamics have attracted considerable scientific attention for their significant ecological and socioeconomic implications. Many studies have investigated the past changes in land use, but efforts exploring the potential changes in land use and implications under future scenarios are still lacking. Here we simulate the future land use changes and their impacts on ecosystem services in Northeast China (NEC) over the period of 2000–2050 using the CLUE–S (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) model under the scenarios of ecological security (ESS), food security (FSS) and comprehensive development (CDS). The model was validated against remote sensing data in 2005. Overall, the accuracy of the CLUE–S model was evaluated at 82.5%. Obtained results show that future cropland changes mainly occur in the Songnen Plain and the Liaohe Plain, forest and grassland changes are concentrated in the southern Lesser Khingan Mountains and the western Changbai Mountains, while the Sanjiang Plain will witness major changes of the wetlands. Our results also show that even though CDS is defined based on the goals of the regional development plan, the ecological service value (ESV) under CDS is RMB 2656.18 billion in 2050. The ESV of CDS is lower compared with the other scenarios. Thus, CDS is not an optimum scenario for eco-environmental protection, especially for the wetlands, which should be given higher priority for future development. The issue of coordination is also critical in future development. The results can help to assist structural adjustments for agriculture and to guide policy interventions in NEC.     

土地利用和气候变化对森林地上生物量的影响模拟——以江西省泰和县为例

以土地利用变化和气候变化为特征的全球和区域环境变化及其影响已经成为国际社会和公众关注的焦点,同时也是土地科学、全球变化科学和全球生态学关注的关键问题。由于土地、气候和森林生态系统之间存在着复杂而密切的关系,土地利用变化和气候变化将不可避免地对森林结构和功能产生重要影响。如何采用合理的适应措施降低这些变化可能带来的损失,是目前全球变化研究亟待解决的问题之一。因此,研究土地利用和气候变化对森林的单独及综合影响具有重要的科学意义。本文综合利用基于主体的土地利用模型（ABM/LUCC）、生态系统过程模型（PnET-II）以及森林景观动态模型（LANDIS-II）构建了综合模拟研究框架,选择森林类型多样且具有长期观测数据积累的江西省泰和县为研究区,模拟并对比了土地利用和气候变化组合情景下未来森林地上总生物量的变化差异。结果表明：① 土地利用变化对泰和县森林地上总生物量的影响比气候变化所带来的影响更加显著。研究区森林地上总生物量在有土地利用变化干扰的情景下与RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5单独的气候情景下相比分别减少33.13%、32.92%和32.42%;② 尽管未来气候变化可能有利于森林地上总生物量的积累,但土地利用变化将使森林地上总生物量显著减少,并将抵消气候变化带来的正效应;③ 本文提出的综合模拟研究框架可以很好地模拟土地利用和气候变化对森林生态系统的影响,可为提升和优化人工林结构和功能、开展可持续森林管理提供科学建议。     

Modelling the integrated effects of land use and climate change scenarios on forest ecosystem aboveground biomass,a case study in Taihe County of China

Global and regional environmental changes such as land use and climate change have significantly integrated and interactive effects on forest. These integrated effects will undoubtedly alter the distribution, function and succession processes of forest ecosystems. In order to adapt to these changes, it is necessary to understand their individual and integrated effects. In this study, we proposed a framework by using coupling models to gain a better understanding of the complex ecological processes. We combined an agent-based model for land use and land cover change (ABM/LUCC), an ecosystem process model (PnET-II), and a forest dynamic landscape model (LANDIS-II) to simulate the change of forest aboveground biomass (AGB) which was driven by land use and climate change factors for the period of 2010–2050 in Taihe County of southern China, where subtropical coniferous plantations dominate. We conducted a series of land use and climate change scenarios to compare the differences in forest AGB. The results show that: (1) land use, including town expansion, deforestation and forest conversion and climate change are likely to influence forest AGB in the near future in Taihe County. (2) Though climate change will make a good contribution to an increase in forest AGB, land use change can result in a rapid decrease in the forest AGB and play a vital role in the integrated simulation. The forest AGB under the integrated scenario decreased by 53.7% (RCP2.6 + land use), 57.2% (RCP4.5 + land use), and 56.9% (RCP8.5 + land use) by 2050, which is in comparison to the results under separate RCPs without land use disturbance. (3) The framework can offer a coupled method to better understand the complex and interactive ecological processes, which may provide some supports for adapting to land use and climate change, improving and optimizing plantation structure and function, and developing measures for sustainable forest management.     

Land use change monitoring in Maryland using a probabilistic sample and rapid photointerpretation

The U.S. state of Maryland needs to monitor land use change in order to address land management objectives. This paper presents a change detection method that, through automation and standard geographic information system (GIS) techniques, facilitates the estimation of landscape change via photointerpretation. Using the protocols developed, we show a net loss of forest land, with losses due primarily to urban development and most gains in forest land coming from agricultural land conversions. This study indicates that about 75,000 photo plots would be needed to estimate land use change in Maryland at the county-level, assuming a uniform sampling intensity and a maximum desired county-level sampling error of 20 percent, with an estimated time requirement of 125 h. The protocol we present for designing, planning and conducting a photointerpretation-based land use change procedure can be used by other regions and is well suited for land use change monitoring, assuming that analysis of opportunity costs suggests that existing or new remotely sensed imagery classifications do not meet user needs.     

Agricultural land use dynamics in the Brazilian Amazon based on remote sensing and census data

The potential impact of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon on greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere calls for policies that take account of changes in forest cover. Although much research has focused on the location and effects of deforestation, little is known about the distribution and reasons for the agricultural uses that replace forest cover. We used Landsat TM-based deforestation and agricultural census data to generate maps of the distribution and proportion of four major agricultural land uses throughout the Brazilian Amazon in 1997 and 2007. We built linear and spatial regression models to assess the determinant factors of deforestation and those major agricultural land uses - pasture, temporary agriculture and permanent agriculture - for the states of Pará, Rondônia, and Mato Grosso. The data include 30 determinant factors that were grouped into two years (1996 and 2006) and in four categories: accessibility to markets, public policies, agrarian structure, and environment. We found an overall expansion of the total agricultural area between 1997 and 2007, and notable differences between the states of Pará, Rondônia, and Mato Grosso in land use changes during this period. Regression models for deforestation and pasture indicated that determinant factors such as distance to roads were more influential in 1997 than in 2007. The number of settled families played an important role in the deforestation and pasture, the effect was stronger in 2007 than 1997. Indigenous lands were significant in preventing deforestation in high-pressure areas in 2007. For temporary and permanent agricultures, our results show that in 1997 the effect of small farms was stronger than in 2007. The mapped land use time series and the models explain empirically the effects of land use changes across the region over one decade.     

基于农业多功能视觉的都市农业用地效益时空变化研究——以西安都市圈为例（英文）

The excessive expansion of urbanized areas has resulted in haphazard land utilization, immoderate consumption of superior agricultural land and water resources, significant fragmentation of agricultural landscape, and gradual deterioration of the agro-ecological environment. Combined, these factors cause poor land use efficiency. Under these circumstances, comprehensively assessing land use efficiency for urban agriculture is a key issue in land use research. Currently, evaluation methods for agricultural land use efficiency narrowly concentrate on aspects of economic input and output. However, urban agro-ecosystems can provide diverse economic, social, and ecological services and functions. In particular, the social and ecological services and functions originating from agricultural land, which have a higher value than economic services, play a significant role in ensuring regional social, ecological, and environmental security. However, recent research has rarely taken these benefits into consideration. Therefore, land use value has been greatly underestimated, which has resulted in mishandled and poor land use policies. In this study, we apply Landsat imagery and social and economic statistical data for the Xi'an metropolitan zone(XMZ) to investigate agricultural multi-functionality. We develop an evaluation framework for urban agricultural land use efficiency and identify agro-ecosystem services and functions as important outputs from agricultural land. The land use efficiency of urban agriculture is then evaluated using ecosystem services models, providing a mechanism for assessing spatial-temporal changes in land use efficiency in the XMZ from 1999 to 2015. Four important conclusions are reached from this analysis. First, the rapid urbanization and agricultural transformation from traditional cereal cultivation to modern urban agriculture has resulted in steadily increasing costs, outputs, and land use efficiency of urban agriculture. The total output value increased 41% and land use efficiency per hectare increased by 33.13% on average. Second, the spatial patterns of comprehensive output and land use efficiency were dominated by economic outputs from agricultural land. Areas near cities, which are dominated by orchard and arable land, providemore economic functions. These areas support and regulate services due to the transformation from extensive cereal production to intensive modern urban agriculture; therefore, they have higher output value and land use efficiency. In contrast, areas distant from cities, towns, and high traffic roads, namely, remote rural areas, provide more support and regulating services, but have relatively lower economic function due to inaccessibility to urban markets and slow agricultural transformation. Therefore, these areas have lower output value and land use efficiency. The spatial change in agricultural output and land use efficiency in urban areas is strongly dependent on the degree of urbanization and agricultural transformation. Third, the total output value and land use efficiency of urban agriculture measured with our approach are much higher than evaluations using traditional methods. However, the spatial patterns measured using the two approaches are in agreement. The evaluation framework integrates ecological services and economic and social functions into a comprehensive output from agricultural land. This approach is more methodical and accurate for evaluating the comprehensive efficiency of land use based on quantities and spatial scale because they are at the pixel scale. Finally, the evaluation results have important implications for enhancing current agricultural subsidies and even implementing ecological payment policies in China. Most importantly, they can be directly applied to agricultural transformation regulations, decision-making, and guidance for rational land utilization.     

豫西黄河流域土地利用空间格局地形梯度特征分析

豫西黄河流域土地利用空间格局在水平和垂直方向上都具有明显区域特征。利用DEM数据对研究区土地利用空间格局地形梯度规律进行了分析,结果表明:(1)各土地利用类型的空间分布规律随高程和坡度的变化具有显著的特点:受人类活动干扰影响较大的各类农业用地、建筑用地、果园、水域和湿地主要分布在海拔相对较低和坡度相对较小的区域;而受人类活动干扰影响较小的各类林地(除果园外)、草地和未利用地则比较均匀地分布在海拔相对较高和坡度较大的区域。(2)不同的海拔段和坡度段内各土地类型的分布也存在一定的分布规律:农业用地类型和林地类型在各个地形梯度内都占有较大的面积比重,这是由于其基数较大,在区域内占据优势地位决定的;在低海拔小坡度地段内农业用地具有相对的面积优势;有林地随着海拔升高和坡度增大,面积比例不断增大,其主导地位随之增强。     

Forest land use change at Trans-Boundary Laos-China Biodiversity Conservation Area

This paper analyzed forest land use change in Trans-Boundary Laos–China Biodiversity Conservation Area which is called Namha National Biodiversity Conservation Areas (Namha NBCAs), with 1992 and 2002 TM (ETM). Based on GIS and statistical methods, the intensity, state index of land use change and transfer matrix were used to study spatio- temporal land use change in the region. The results showed that the area of forest land decreased greatly, also the area of bamboo and grassland decreased. The other way round, the area of unstocked forest, slash and burn and rice paddy land increased. As a whole, the intensity of forest land change was higher, but others were lower. From the transfer matrix, most of the forest land changed into unstocked forest and urban area, some to slash and burn. The grassland and bamboo were mainly transferred to forest and unstocked forest. The unstocked forest land mostly came from forest land and grassland. It was showed there were three main causes of the land use change namely: opium poppy cultivation, rubber plantation and also ecotourism activities and finally some policies were developed in order to address the land use change in the study areas.     

21世纪初期南京城市用地类型与用地强度演变关系

城市三维空间扩展已成为21世纪初期中国城市空间扩展的重要特征。利用南京市2000年和2012年两期三维城市数字重建成果,将地类变化转移矩阵的应用方法进行拓展,研究城市建成区用地类型变化引致的用地强度的演变。主要结论为：① 21世纪以来南京建成区处于高速扩张之中,12年间工业用地增长幅度最大,其增加的来源主要是农用地,其次为住宅用地,农用地和水域面积减少较为明显;② 在城市内部5种主要地类的转化过程中,除住宅用地转为其他建设用地的类型容积率有所降低外,其余转换类型容积率均有明显增长,城市内部用地类型未发生变化的地块,容积率也处在不断的提高中;③ 在城市扩展区各地类的容积率保持在较好的水平,新增住宅、教育和其他建设用地的容积率超过了老城区相应地类的容积率,新建工业用地容积率与老工业用地容积率持平,新建商业用地容积率是老商业用地容积率的65.67%。     

中国老挝跨境生物多样性保护区的林地变化(英文)

This paper analyzed forest land use change in Trans-Boundary Laos-China Biodiversity Conservation Area which is called Namha National Biodiversity Conservation Areas (Namha NBCAs), with 1992 and 2002 TM (ETM). Based on GIS and statistical methods, the intensity, state index of land use change and transfer matrix were used to study spatiotemporal land use change in the region. The results showed that the area of forest land decreased greatly, also the area of bamboo and grassland decreased. The other way round, the area of unstocked forest, slash and burn and rice paddy land increased. As a whole, the intensity of forest land change was higher, but others were lower. From the transfer matrix, most of the forest land changed into unstocked forest and urban area, some to slash and burn. The grassland and bamboo were mainly transferred to forest and unstocked forest. The unstocked forest land mostly came from forest land and grassland. It was showed there were three main causes of the land use change namely: opium poppy cultivation, rubber plantation and also ecotourism activities and finally some policies were developed in order to address the land use change in the study areas.     

Reconstructing the historical spatial land use pattern for Jiangsu Province in mid-Qing Dynasty

This study is proposed to reconstruct a high-resolution spatial distribution of historical land use pattern with all land use types to overcome low-accuracy and/or the monotonic land use type in current historical land use reconstruction studies. The year of 1820 is set as the temporal section and the administrative area of Jiangsu Province is the study area. Land use types being reconstructed include farmland, residential land (including both urban land and rural residential land), water body, and other land (including forest land, grassland, and unused land). Data sources mainly refer to historical documents, historical geographic research outcomes, contemporary statistics, and natural environmental data. With great considerations over regional natural resources and social and economic conditions, a few theoretical assumptions have been proposed to facilitate the adjustment on prefecture farmland, urban land, and rural residential land. Upholding the idea that the contemporary land use pattern has been inherently in sequence with the historical land use pattern as well as the land use pattern shall be consistent to its accessibility, this study reconstructs the land use pattern in Jiangsu Province in 1820 with 100 m*100 m grids based on accessibility analysis and comprehensive evaluation. The outcome has been tested as valid by regionalization and correlation analysis. The resulted spatial distribution shows that back in 1820 in Jiangsu Province: (1) farmland, urban land, rural residential land, water body, and other land take about 48.49%, 4.46%, 0.16%, 15.03%, and 31.86% of the total land area respectively; (2) the land use pattern features high proportion of land in farming while low-proportion land in non-farming uses while population, topography, and the density of water body lead to great spatial variations; and (3) the reconstruction methodology has been tested as reasonable based on significant positive correlations between 1820 data and 1985 for both farmland and rural residential land at the prefecture level.     

Hydrologic variation with land use across the contiguous United States: Geomorphic and ecological consequences for stream ecosystems

Using daily discharge data from the USGS, we analyzed how hydrologic regimes vary with land use in four large hydrologic regions that span a gradient of natural land cover and precipitation across the continental United States. In each region we identified small streams (contributing area < 282 km²) that have continuous daily streamflow data. Using a national database, we characterized the composition of land cover of the watersheds in terms of aggregate measures of agriculture, urbanization, and least disturbed (“natural”). We calculated hydrologic alteration using 10 ecologically-relevant hydrologic metrics that describe magnitude, frequency, and duration of flow for 158 watersheds within the Southeast (SE), Central (CE), Pacific Northwest (NW), and Southwest (SW) hydrologic regions of the United States. Within each watershed, we calculated percent cover for agriculture, urbanized land, and least disturbed land to elucidate how components of the natural flow regime inherent to a hydrologic region is modified by different types and proportions of land cover. We also evaluated how dams in these regions altered the hydrologic regimes of the 43 streams that have pre- and post-dam daily streamflow data. In an analysis of flow alteration along gradients of increasing proportion of the three land cover types, we found many regional differences in hydrologic responses. In response to increasing urban land cover, peak flows increased (SE and CE), minimum flows increased (CE) or decreased (NW), duration of near-bankfull flows declined (SE, NW) and flow variability increased (SE, CE, and NW). Responses to increasing agricultural land cover were less pronounced, as minimum flows decreased (CE), near-bankfull flow durations increased (SE and SW), and flow variability declined (CE). In a second analysis, for three of the regions, we compared the difference between least disturbed watersheds and those having either > 15% urban and > 25% agricultural land cover. Relative to natural land cover in each region, urbanization either increased (SE and NW) or decreased (SW) peak flows, decreased minimum flows (SE, NW, and SW), decreased durations of near-bankfull flows (SE, NW, and SW), and increased flow variability (SE, NW, and SW). Agriculture had similar effects except in the SE, where near-bankfull flow durations increased. Overall, urbanization appeared to induce greater hydrologic responses than similar proportions of agricultural land cover in watersheds. Finally, the effects of dams on hydrologic variation were largely consistent across regions, with a decrease in peak flows, an increase in minimum flows, an increase in near-bankfull flow durations, and a decrease in flow variability. We use this analysis to evaluate the relative degree to which land use has altered flow regimes across regions in the US with naturally varying climate and natural land cover, and we discuss the geomorphic and ecological implications of such flow modification. We end with a consideration of what elements will ultimately be required to conduct a more comprehensive national assessment of the hydrologic responses of streams to land cover types and dams. These include improved tools for modeling hydrologic metrics in ungauged watersheds, incorporation of high-resolution geospatial data to map geomorphic and hydrologic drivers of stream response to different types of land cover, and analysis of scale dependence in the distribution of land-use impacts, including mixed land uses. Finally, ecological and geomorphic responses to human alteration of land cover will have to be calibrated to the regional hydroclimatological, geologic, and historical context in which the streams occur, in order to determine the degree to which stream responses are region-specific versus geographically independent and broadly transferable.