Low‐dimensional representation of error covariance

Ensemble and reduced‐rank approaches to prediction and assimilation rely on low‐dimensional approximations of the estimation error covariances. Here stability properties of the forecast/analysis cycle for linear, time‐independent systems are used to identify factors that cause the steady‐state analysis error covariance to admit a low‐dimensional representation. A useful measure of forecast/analysis cycle stability is the bound matrix , a function of the dynamics, observation operator and assimilation method. Upper and lower estimates for the steady‐state analysis error covariance matrix eigenvalues are derived from the bound matrix. The estimates generalize to time‐dependent systems. If much of the steady‐state analysis error variance is due to a few dominant modes, the leading eigenvectors of the bound matrix approximate those of the steady‐state analysis error covariance matrix. The analytical results are illustrated in two numerical examples where the Kalman filter is carried to steady state. The first example uses the dynamics of a generalized advection equation exhibiting non‐modal transient growth. Failure to observe growing modes leads to increased steady‐state analysis error variances. Leading eigenvectors of the steady‐state analysis error covariance matrix are well approximated by leading eigenvectors of the bound matrix. The second example uses the dynamics of a damped baroclinic wave model. The leading eigenvectors of a lowest‐order approximation of the bound matrix are shown to approximate well the leading eigenvectors of the steady‐state analysis error covariance matrix.     

Significance of non‐rotational wind stress in the seasonal variation of continental torque

The physical mechanism by which seasonally varying atmospheric wind stress exerted on the sea surface is communicated to the solid earth as oceanic pressure torque (continental torque) and bottom frictional torque is investigated with a linear shallow‐water numerical model of barotropic oceans. The model has a realistic land–ocean distribution and is driven by a seasonally varying climatic wind stress. A novel way to decompose the wind stress into rotational and non‐rotational components is devised. The rotational component drives ocean circulations as classical theories of wind‐driven circulations demonstrate. The non‐rotational component does not produce ocean circulations within the framework of a barotropic shallow‐water model, but balances with the pressure gradient force due to surface displacement in the steady state. Based on this decomposition, it is shown that most of the continental torque which plays a major role in producing the seasonal variation of length of day (LOD) is caused by the non‐rotational component of the wind stress. Both continental torque due to the wind‐driven circulation produced by the rotational component of the wind stress and the bottom frictional torque are of minor importance.     

State Estimation of the North Pacific Ocean by a Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation Experiment

A four-dimensional variational data assimilation system has been applied to an experiment to describe the dynamic state of the North Pacific Ocean. A synthesis of available observational records and a sophisticated ocean general circulation model produces a dynamically consistent dataset, which, in contrast to the nudging approach, provides realistic features of the seasonally-varying ocean circulation with no artificial sources/sinks for temperature and salinity fields. This new dataset enables us to estimate heat and water mass transports in addition to the qualification of water mass formation and movement processes. A sensitivity experiment on our assimilation system reveals that the origin of the North Pacific Intermediate Water can be traced back to the Sea of Okhotsk and the Bering Sea in the subarctic region and to the subtropical Kuroshio region further south. These results demonstrate that our data assimilation system is a very powerful tool for the identification and characterization of ocean variabilities and for our understanding of the dynamic state of ocean circulation. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

南海南部与外海间的体积和热、盐输运及其对印尼贯穿流的贡献

根据中国近海高分辨率 ( 1 / 6°)环流模式的模拟结果 ,计算了南沙邻近海域与外海之间的海水体积、热量和盐量输运及其对印度尼西亚贯穿流的贡献。研究海域为 0°— 1 4°N的整个南海南部海域。计算得出 ,穿过研究海域流向印度尼西亚海域 ,最终流向印度洋的年平均体积、热量和盐量输运分别为 5 .2Sv( 1Sv =1× 1 0 6m3·s- 1 )、0 .5 7PW和 1 84Gg·s- 1 ,大约占印度尼西亚贯穿流相应输运量的 1 / 4。这一结果表明南海是全球大传送带这一全球海洋最主要热盐环流系统的重要通道之一。从南海流向印度尼西亚海域的通道以卡里马塔海峡为最主要 ,以下依次为巴拉巴克海峡、民都洛海峡和马六甲海峡。大的南向通量主要发生在冬、秋季 ,春末夏初总的通量向北。计算还得出输入本海区的热输运量比输出少 0 .0 64PW ,由这一结果推得 ,通过海 -气界面由大气进入海洋的年平均净热通量约为 30W·m- 2 。     

Active and passive ocean regimes in a low‐order climate model

A low‐order climate model is studied which combines the Lorenz‐84 model for the atmosphere on a fast time scale and a box model for the ocean on a slow time scale. In this climate model, the ocean is forced strongly by the atmosphere. The feedback to the atmosphere is weak. The behaviour of the model is studied as a function of the feedback parameters. We find regions in parameter space with dominant atmospheric dynamics, i.e., a passive ocean, as well as regions with an active ocean, where the oceanic feedback is essential for the qualitative dynamics. The ocean is passive if the coupled system is fully chaotic. This is illustrated by comparing the Kaplan–Yorke dimension and the correlation dimension of the chaotic attractor to the values found in the uncoupled Lorenz‐84 model. The active ocean behaviour occurs at parameter values between fully chaotic and stable periodic motion. Here, intermittency is observed. By means of bifurcation analysis of periodic orbits, the intermittent behaviour, and the rôle played by the ocean model, is clarified. A comparison of power spectra in the active ocean regime and the passive ocean regime clearly shows an increase of energy in the low frequency modes of the atmospheric variables. The results are discussed in terms of itinerancy and quasi‐stationary states observed in realistic atmosphere and climate models.     

Possible role of oceanic heat transport in early Eocene climate

Increased oceanic heat transport has often been cited as a means of maintaining warm high-latitude surface temperatures in many intervals of the geologic past, including the early Eocene. Although the excess amount of oceanic heat transport required by warm high latitude sea surface temperatures can be calculated empirically, determining how additional oceanic heat transport would take place has yet to be accomplished. That the mechanisms of enhanced poleward oceanic heat transport remain undefined in paleoclimate reconstructions is an important point that is often overlooked. Using early Eocene climate as an example, we consider various ways to produce enhanced poleward heat transport and latitudinal energy redistribution of the sign and magnitude required by interpreted early Eocene conditions. Our interpolation of early Eocene paleotemperature data indicate that an approximately 30% increase in poleward heat transport would be required to maintain Eocene high-latitude temperatures. This increased heat transport appears difficult to accomplish by any means of ocean circulation if we use present ocean circulation characteristics to evaluate early Eocene rates. Either oceanic processes were very different from those of the present to produce the early Eocene climate conditions or oceanic heat transport was not the primary cause of that climate. We believe that atmospheric processes, with contributions from other factors, such as clouds, were the most likely primary cause of early Eocene climate.     

Freshwater forcing as a booster of thermohaline circulation

Making use of a simple two‐layer model, we analyze the impact of freshwater forcing on the thermohaline circulation. We consider the forward‐type circulation dominated by thermal forcing, implying that the freshwater forcing acts to reduce the density contrast associated with the equator‐to‐pole temperature contrast (prescribed in the model). The system is described by two variables: the depth of the upper layer ( H ) and the density contrast between the upper and lower layer (Δρ), which decreases with salinity contrast. The rate of poleward flow of light surface water and the diapycnal flow (i.e., upwelling) driven by widespread small‐scale mixing are both modeled in terms of H and Δρ. Steady states of thermohaline circulation are found when these two flows are equal. The representation of the diapycnal flow ( M_D ) is instrumental for the dynamics of the system. We present equally plausible examples of a physically based representation of M_D for which the thermohaline circulation either decreases or increases with density contrast. In the latter case, contrary to the traditional wisdom, the freshwater forcing amplifies the circulation and there exists a thermally dominated equilibrium for arbitrary intensity of freshwater forcing. Here, Stommel's famous feedback between circulation and salinity contrast is changed from a positive to a negative feedback. The interaction of such a freshwater boosted thermohaline circulation with the climate system is fundamentally different from what is commonly assumed, an issue which is briefly addressed.     

Simulation of shelf-averaged water properties with application to the South Coast of Australia

A method for simulating shelf-averaged properties for vertically well-mixed water on a strip of continental shelf is presented. The conservation equations for temperature and salt are solved making use of air temperatures, evaporation and rainfall rates, and temperature and salinity data from the adjacent ocean and the ends of the strip, together with coastal current transports. The transports have been estimated from the longshore variation of wind stress and depth integrated longshore density gradient using a theoretical expression.The resulting shelf distributions are interpreted as a summation of ‘signals’ deriving from processes occurring in specified segments of the strip of continental shelf (shelf anomalies), the ends of the strip (boundary anomalies) and from the longshore property variation in the adjacent ocean (oceanic anomalies). Negative oceanic temperature anomalies indicate cool advection (which supports upwelling) and positive oceanic temperature anomalies warm advection. Shelf anomalies quantify the modification of water properties on the shelf by meteorological forcing.Solutions are discussed for the annual cycle along the continental shelf of southern Australia in which the importance of advective processes is evident in the salinity distribution, but is masked in the temperature distribution by opposing oceanic and shelf anomalies.     

洋际交换及其在全球大洋环流中的作用:MOM4p1积分1400年的结果

利用非Boussinesq近似下MOM4p1的全球大洋环流预后模式,采用真实地形,以静止状态为初始条件,进行了1 400a积分,以研究平衡状态下大洋环流的结构。模式由月平均气候态强迫场驱动,包括192×189个水平网格和压力坐标下的31个垂直层次。着重研究达到平衡状态后,各洋际通道处的质量、热量输运和补偿及其在全球大洋环流中的作用。根据动能演变特征表明,积分过程分为3个阶段:风海流的成长及准稳定状态;热盐环流的成长过程以及热盐环流的稳定状态;由静止状态冷启动达到热盐环流的稳定状态,积分过程必须在千年以上。模式结果再现了从白令海峡到格陵兰海的北冰洋贯穿流和印度尼西亚贯穿流,并用已有观测资料对它们进行对比。分析表明,海面的倾斜结构是形成太平洋-北冰洋-大西洋贯穿流和印尼贯穿流的主要动力机制。分析指出,尽管在北大西洋存在1.4×106 m3/s的南向体积输运,但其热量输运却是北向的并达到1015 W量级,其原因是北向的上层海流温度远高于北大西洋深层水向南的回流。文章分析了经向体积和热量输运对北大西洋深层水补偿来源及大西洋经向翻转环流的贡献。模拟所得洋际交换的量值可以由经向补偿予以合理解释,并得到以往实测与数模结果的支持。洋际通道处的体积和热量交换突出体现了其在大洋传送带系统中的枢纽作用。     

An unrealistic high-salinity tongue simulated in the tropical Atlantic: another example illustrating the need for a more careful treatment of vertical discretizations in OGCMs

An unrealistically high-salinity maximum is found to develop in a high-resolution model of the north and equatorial Atlantic below the shallow halocline in the Gulf of Guinea. The spurious water mass with salinities too high by as much as 1 psu is formed when the vertical advection is treated by the standard central-differencing advection scheme. The problem is considerably reduced either by increasing the vertical resolution of the numerical grid, or by switching to a higher-order upwind-weighted scheme for vertical advection. This note stresses the need for a careful consideration of vertical discretization even in typical high-resolution ocean general circulation models (OGCMs). Particular attention is needed for studying heat and salt budgets or transports of biogeochemical tracers.     

Changes in average and extreme precipitation in two regional climate model experiments

Two regional climate model experiments for northern and central Europe are studied focussing on greenhouse gas‐induced changes in heavy precipitation. The average yearly maximum one‐day precipitation P _max shows a general increase in the whole model domain in both experiments, although the mean precipitation P _mean decreases in the southern part of the area, especially in one of the experiments. The average yearly maximum six‐hour precipitation increases even more than the one‐day P _max, suggesting a decrease in the timescale of heavy precipitation. The contrast between the P _mean and P _max changes in the southern part of the domain and the lack of such a contrast further north are affected by changes in wet‐day frequency that stem, at least in part, from changes in atmospheric circulation. However, the yearly extremes of precipitation exhibit a larger percentage increase than the average wet‐day precipitation. The signal‐to‐noise aspects of the model results are also studied in some detail. The 44 km grid‐box‐scale changes in P _max are very heavily affected by inter‐annual variability, with an estimated standard error of about 20% for the 10‐year mean changes. However, the noise in P _max decreases sharply toward larger horizontal scales, and large‐area mean changes in P _max can be estimated with similar accuracy to those in P _mean. Although a horizontal averaging of model results smooths out the small‐scale details in the true climate change signal as well, this disadvantage is, in the case of P _max changes, much smaller than the advantage of reduced noise.     

The different behaviour of modeled ocean circulation under an atmosphere with different heat capacity

We examine the difference in modeled thermohaline circulation under an atmosphere with no heat capacity (NHC) and infinite heat capacity (IHC) in a series of numerical experiments using the Bryan/Cox OGCM. An NHC atmosphere allows ocean sea surface temperatures to respond to changes in oceanic poleward heat transport, inferring an atmosphere that is allowed to seek its equilibrium temperature, whereas an IHC atmosphere does not. This is responsible for the following different behaviour patterns under the two atmospheres: 1) under NHC atmosphere, oceanic thermal oscillation persists, whereas under IHC atmosphere it does not; 2) under NHC atmosphere, the oceanic thermohaline circulation is less sensitive to high latitude freshening than under IHC atmosphere; 3) under either atmosphere, multiple equilibrium solutions are possible. However, under NHC atmosphere, two equilibria of the thermohaline circulation are generated in the same way as in the GFDL fully coupled model, while under IHC atmosphere, they are not.     

Long-Term Variability of North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water in Response to Spin-Up of the Subtropical Gyre

The Meteorological Research Institute's ocean general circulation model (MRI-OGCM) has been used to investigate the temperature variability of the North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water (NPSTMW) over a time series longer than 5 years via the spin-up of the subtropical gyre. Besides an interannual variation, the wintertime sea surface temperature in the area where the NPSTMW is formed, and the temperature of the NPSTMW itself, both change remarkably in a >5-year time scale. An analysis of heat budgets showed that the long-term changes in NPSTMW temperature are due mainly to a leading advection of heat by the Kuroshio Extension and compensating surface heat flux. As a result of a dynamical adjustment to the wind stress fields, the transports of the Kuroshio and the Kuroshio Extension increased in the mid 1970s with a lag of 3 years after the wind stress curl in the central North Pacific. The increased heat advection by the Kuroshio Extension induces a warming in the mixed layer in the NPSTMW formation area, followed by a warming of the NPSTMW itself. Both these warming actions increase the heat release to the atmosphere. These results imply that the surface heat flux over the Kuroshio Extension area varies in response to the change in the ocean circulation through the spin-up of the subtropical gyre. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

中国Argo计划:Argo观测和资料应用进展

文章回顾了中国Argo计划已经取得的成果,主要包括中国Argo观测网的建设、浮标技术、数据质量控制及共享等。同时,讨论了Argo数据产品的开发以及数据在海洋、气象和大气研究中的应用,特别是在热带气旋（台风）、海洋环流、中尺度涡、湍流、海水热盐储量与输送、大洋水团,以及海洋、天气/气候业务化预测预报中的应用。最后,文章阐述了中国Argo海洋观测网长期维护和持续发展所面临的挑战和机遇,我们应在印度洋增加浮标数量,同时建立南海Argo区域海洋观测网,促进Argo资料在东南亚和印度洋沿岸国家的应用。     

Southern Ocean transformation in a coupled model with and without eddy mass fluxes

A coupled air–sea general circulation model is used to simulate the global circulation. Different parameterizations of lateral mixing in the ocean by eddies, horizontal, isopycnal, and isopycnal plus eddy advective flux, are compared from the perspective of water mass transformation in the Southern Ocean. The different mixing physics imply different buoyancy equilibria in the surface mixed layer, different transformations, and therefore a variety of meridional overturning streamfunctions. The coupled‐model approach avoids strong artificial water mass transformation associated with relaxation to prescribed mixed layer conditions. Instead, transformation results from the more physical non‐local, nonlinear interdependence of sea‐surface temperature, air–sea fluxes, and circulation in the model's atmosphere and ocean. The development of a stronger mid‐depth circulation cell and associated upwelling when eddy fluxes are present, is examined. The strength of overturning is diagnosed in density coordinates using the transformation framework.     

Formation of extreme surface turbulent heat fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere in the North Atlantic

The role of extreme surface turbulent fluxes in total oceanic heat loss in the North Atlantic is studied. The atmospheric circulation patterns enhancing ocean–atmosphere heat flux in regions with significant contributions of the extreme heat fluxes (up to 60% of the net heat loss) are analyzed. It is shown that extreme heat fluxes in the Gulf Stream and the Greenland and Labrador Seas occur in zones with maximal air pressure gradients, i.e., in cyclone–anticyclone interaction zones.     

Polarimetric entropy of the ocean surface with a two-scale scattering model

The relationships among an ocean wave spectrum,a fully polarimetric coherence matrix,and radar parameters are deduced with an electromagnetic wave theory.Furthermore,the relationship between the polarimetric entropy and ocean wave spectrum is established based on the definition of entropy and a twoscale scattering model of the ocean surface.It is the first time that the polarimetric entropy of the ocean surface is presented in theory.Meanwhile,the relationships among the fully polarimetric entropy and the parameters related to radar and ocean are discussed.The study is the basis of further monitoring targets on the ocean surface and deriving oceanic information with the entropy from the ocean surface.The contrast enhancement between human-made targets and the ocean surface with the entropy is presented with quad-pol airborne synthetic aperture radar（AIRSAR） data.     

Upper Ocean Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal

A regional ocean circulation model with four-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme is configured to study the ocean state of the Indian Ocean region (65°E–95°E; 5°N–20°N) covering the Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal (BoB). The state estimation setup uses 10 km horizontal resolution and 5 m vertical resolution in the upper ocean. The in-situ temperature and salinity, satellite-derived observations of sea surface height, and blended (in-situ and satellite-derived) observations of sea surface temperature alongwith their associated uncertainties are used for data assimilation with the regionally configured ocean model. The ocean state estimation is carried out for 61 days (1 June to 31 July 2013). The assimilated fields are closer to observations compared to other global state estimates. The mixed layer depth (MLD) of the region shows deepening during the period of assimilation with AS showing higher MLD compared to the BoB. An empirical forecast equation is derived for the prediction of MLD using the air–sea forcing variables as predictors. The surface and sub-surface (50 m) heat and salt budget tendencies of the region are also investigated. It is found that at the sub-surface, only the advection and diffusion temperature and salt tendencies are important.     

大洋环流的诊断计算

采用二维的全球高分辨率（1／4°×1／4°）的自由表面诊断模型结合动力计算估算全球大洋环流,模拟结果与其他模拟结果非常相似。流函数的分布表明,全球大洋中的主要流系均得到体现,包括大洋环流的西向强化的现象（黑潮、湾流等）。黑潮主轴的流量约54Sv（1Sv=10^6m^3／s）,非常接近实测值：各层水平流场分布情况显示,各大洋的一些基本流系都能得到很好的再现。如黑潮和南极绕极流可深达底层。湾流不能到达深层,大约在1000～2000m之间海流即已转向。