Decadal variability of characteristics of the Black Sea pycnocline and geostrophic circulation in the wintertime

The Black Sea density fields and geostrophic circulation in the 0–300-dbar layer are reconstructed from the February archive hydrological data for several decades from 1951 to 1995 and then their interdecadal variability is studied. A gradual rise of the pycnocline is noted in the dome region of large-scale cyclonic gyrals from 5 m at the top of the pycnocline to 10–15 m at 100–300-m levels. Differently directed tendencies of long-term variability of the winter circulation are revealed: circulation intensification in the upper 0–50-m layer (except for the southwestern sea) and weakening in the lower pycnocline 200–300-m layer. The connection with the wind vorticity variability, river runoff, precipitation, and air temperature is analyzed. Strengthening of the cyclonic wind vorticity in the 1960s and the early 1970s is in good agreement with the circulation intensification of that time in the eastern sea.     

The role of sea ice in the temperature-precipitation feedback of glacial cycles

The response of the hydrological cycle to climate variability and change is a critical open question, where model reliability is still unsatisfactory, yet upon which past climate history can shed some light. Sea ice is a key player in the climate system and in the hydrological cycle, due to its strong albedo effect and its insulating effect on local evaporation and air-sea heat flux. Using an atmospheric general circulation model with specified sea surface temperature and sea-ice distribution, the role of sea ice in the hydrological cycle is investigated under last glacial maximum (LGM) and present day conditions, and by studying its contribution to the “temperature-precipitation feedback”. By conducting a set of sensitivity experiments in which the albedo and thickness of the sea ice are varied, the various effects of sea ice in the hydrological cycle are isolated. It is demonstrated that for a cold LGM like state, a warmer climate (as a result of reduced sea-ice cover) leads to an increase in snow precipitation over the ice sheets. The insulating effect of the sea ice on the hydrological cycle is found to be larger than the albedo effect. These two effects interact in a nonlinear way and their total effect is not equal to summing their separate contribution.     

Paleo-evolution of the Black Sea watershed: sea level and water transport through the Bosporus Straits as an indicator of the Lateglacial–Holocene transition

The paleo-evolution of the Black Sea level during the Lateglacial–Holocene transition is still unclear, which motivates us to provide new estimates for that period based on the analysis of water budget. Hydrological conditions in the Black Sea catchment area are reconstructed here using water balance equation, available data, and constraints based on simple theory relating the runoff ratio with climatic characteristics. In order to estimate the impact of the aridity of climate we consider two alternative scenarios: (1) climate change under constant in time gradient in precipitation and evaporation over land and sea, and (2) climate change accounting for changes in the horizontal distribution of precipitation and evaporation. Hydrological data are compiled from available present-day data and paleo-observations. A number of sensitivity experiments is carried out revealing that the hydrological conditions in the Black Sea watershed should have evolved towards a very arid climate (similar to the present-day climate in the Caspian Sea area) in order to initiate a drop of sea level of ∼100 m below the sill depth of the Bosporus Straits, as speculated in some recent research. Estimates of sea level changes reveal a qualitative agreement with the coast-line evolution inferred from paleo-observations. The Younger Dryas draw down of the Black Sea starts at about 13.3 to 13 kyr BP, with a maximum low-stand of 104 m at 11.5 kyr BP. In an arid climate scenario the sea level reaches the outlet at about 8.8 to 7.4 kyr BP. Approximately at that time, Mediterranean sea level was about 10 m higher, making flooding events of the Black Sea possible. However, the nature and exact timing of the Holocene reconnection depends also on other (not well known) factors; one of them is the Bosporus sill depth, motivating further research in this field. Estimates of the water transport through the Bosporus Straits are also provided for the time of Lateglacial–Holocene transition.     

Circulation over Bulgaria and its connection with NAO indices and Sea Surface Temperatures

Trends in atmospheric pressure, circulation and some relationships between North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices, sea surface temperatures, and atmospheric circulation over Bulgaria are discussed in this article. Data for measured atmospheric pressure at stations Burgas, Pleven, and Sandanski are used. Information about atmospheric circulation over Bulgaria was obtained using sea level pressure and 700 hPa Omega (vertical velocity) reanalysis daily data for grid cells covering the territory of Bulgaria for the period 1948–2010. Zonal and meridional indices for Bulgaria were also calculated based on the data for sea level pressure. NAO index calculated by NOAA and NCAR is correlated with atmospheric pressure and circulation. A total of 12 areas in three major water basins influencing Bulgarian climate—North Atlantic, Mediterranean, and Black Seas—were studied. Main methods employed in the article are statistical—trend analysis, multiple linear regression, correlation, nonparametric tests, etc. There is no change in the mean values of atmospheric pressure over Bulgaria. Circulation over Bulgaria during the research period increases its anticyclonal patterns mainly due to the decrease of the number of cyclones. Dynamics in zonal and meridional indices for Bulgaria result in an increase of the northwest transport in the winter and an increase of the northeast transport in the summer. Cyclones over Bulgaria determine the values of atmospheric pressure. Influence of the NAO on atmospheric pressure and circulation is stronger in winter. Atmospheric processes, expressed by the number of cyclones and anticyclones, are most active in spring. Current trends are towards increasing of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) at all investigated places. Temporally, the effect of SSTs on the number of cyclones, anticyclones, zonal and meridional indices for Bulgaria during the different seasons comes with a delay of 1 to 3 months. Constructed multiple linear regression (MLR) models with predictors SSTs adequately describe the atmospheric circulation over Bulgaria. There is a clear pattern of SSTs distribution, which leads to a higher number of cyclones over Bulgaria in winter—lower than normal temperatures in the Aegean Sea and higher than normal in the Black Sea. A decrease in the difference of temperatures between the Gulf Stream and western colder parts leads to higher values of winter zonal transport over Bulgaria. Higher than normal temperatures in Black Sea lead to a higher number of cyclones in spring. Higher difference in temperatures of the North Atlantic leads to a stronger cyclogenesis and enhanced zonal transport, which affects autumn circulation over Bulgaria.     

Anomalies of hydrometeorological fields in the Black Sea area associated with sea surface temperature gradients in the North Atlantic

To describe the spatial structure of hydrometeorological fields in the North Atlantic and in the Black Sea, the temperature indices (sea surface temperature gradients) representing the difference in sea surface temperature anomalies averaged throughout the water area and normalized by standard deviations are introduced. Temperature gradients between the Sargasso Sea and the tropics (STI), the Sargasso Sea and the subpolar cyclonic gyre (SNI), the Sargasso Sea and the Black Sea (SBI) are considered. The spatial structure of the sea surface temperature field anomalies in the North Atlantic and in the Black Sea at extreme values of STI and SBI is discussed. A sign-variable structure of air temperature and precipitation anomalies in the Black Sea area at extreme values of SBI is shown. Time scales of sign-variable variability of anomalies of hydrometeorological fields in the Black Sea area are estimated.     

The Black Sea level trends from tide gages and satellite altimetry

Obtained are the estimates of the Black Sea level trends for the period of 1992–2005 as derived from the tide-gage and satellite altimetry data. An estimated rate of the mean sea level rate calculated from the averaged altimetry data is 7.6 ± 0.3 mm/year that is by 2–3 times higher than the estimates for the previous periods. Such high values of the trend are evidently associated with the sea level variability features at the 10-year temporal scale. The Black Sea level trend is characterized by the high spatial variability: it amounts to 8–9.5 mm/year in the coastal areas of the Black Sea basin that exceeds the trend in the deep-water part by 1.5–2 times (4.5–6 mm/year). Such distribution is an effect of the cyclonic Rim Current intensification. Based on the difference in the sea level trends obtained from in-situ and altimetry measurements, the velocity of the vertical crustal motion is estimated for the Ukrainian coastal stations of the Black Sea.     

Intense mesocyclones in the Black Sea region

The statistical study of intense mesoscale cyclones formed in the Black Sea region in 1979-2013 is carried out using the surface wind data of the RegCM climate model. Such cyclone parameters as intensity, lifetime, area, height, and trajectories over the sea as well as the place and time of origin are considered. The distribution of mesocyclones by months and times of day is considered. The obtained results are compared with the results of a statistical study on the Black Sea mesocyclones based on the PRECIS climate model. Possible causes for differences in data on the intensity and number of mesocyclones simulated by RegCM and PRECIS models are considered.     

Climate fluctuations of the Weddell Sea and its surroundings in a transient climate change scenario

The response of the Weddell Sea and Antarctic Peninsula to anthropogenic forcing simulated by a global climate model is analyzed. The model, despite its low resolution, is able to capture several aspects of the observed regional pattern of climate change. A strong warming and depletion of the sea ice cover in the western Weddell Sea contrasts with a slight cooling and a sea-ice extension in the eastern Weddell Sea. This simulated long-term climate change is modulated by interdecadal variability but also affected by some abrupt regional changes in the oceanic mixed layer depth. Between 1960 and 2030 a reorganization of the deep convection activity in the Weddell Sea sustains the opposition between the eastern and western Weddell Sea. The deep convection collapses in the western Weddell Sea in the 2030s. The sea ice retreat trend is then followed by an increase of the sea ice cover in the western Weddell Sea. In the eastern Weddell Sea another abrupt collapse of the deep convection activity occurs around 2080. This event is followed by a rapid cooling and sea ice extension during the next 20 years. Most of the surface changes are associated with large-scale atmospheric circulation changes that project on the dominant mode of natural variability but also with oceanic convection and circulation changes.     

Regional features of long-term variability of the Black Sea surface temperature

The regional features oflong-term variability ofsea surface temperature (SST) in the Black Sea are analyzed using the satellite data for 1982-2014. It is demonstrated that the maximum intraannual and interannual variability of SST is registered on the northwestern shelf of the Black Sea. The high level of interannual variability of SST and maximum linear trends are observed in the northeastern part of the sea. The qualitative connection is revealed between the long-term variability of SST and the variations in the intensity of the Black Sea Rim Current in the long-term seasonal cycle. An increase in the level of interannual variability of SST is observed in summer, when the Black Sea Rim Current weakens. The significant negative correlation is revealed between the interannual anomalies of SST and the NAO index. The highest correlation coefficients are obtained for the eastern part of the Black Sea and near the Crimean coast.     

南海海域海-气耦合模式及其数值模拟试验

在ＮＣＡＲ区域气候模式ＲｅｇＧＭ２和普林斯顿海洋模式ＰＯＭ基础上发展适用于区域海－气相互作用研究的区域海－气耦合模式,模式采用同步耦合、海洋模式将海表温度提供给大气模式,大气模式为海洋模式提供太阳短波辐射、感热能量、潜热通量。海洋与大气模式每１５ｍｉｎ交换一次通量。耦合过程没有使用通量校正。使用该模式对中国南海区域１９９５年５－７月大气和海洋进行了模拟试验,将模拟结果与ＣＯＡＤＳ通量强迫的模拟结果     

Ranking of CMIP5-based global climate models for India using compromise programming

In this study, regional patterns of precipitation in Marmara are described for the first time by means of Ward’s hierarchical cluster analysis. Daily values of winter precipitation data based on 19 meteorological stations were used for the period from 1960 to 2012. Five clusters of coherent zones were determined, namely Black Sea-Marmara, Black Sea, Marmara, Thrace, and Aegean sub-regions. To investigate the prevailing atmospheric circulation types (CTs) that cause precipitation occurrence and intensity in these five different rainfall sub-basins, objective Lamb weather type (LWT) methodology was applied to National Centers of Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis of daily mean sea level pressure (MSLP) data. Precipitation occurrence suggested that wet CTs (i.e. N, NE, NW, and C) offer a high chance of precipitation in all sub-regions. For the eastern (western) part of the region, the high probability of rainfall occurrence is shown under the influence of E (SE, S, SW) atmospheric CTs. In terms of precipitation intensity, N and C CTs had the highest positive gradients in all the sub-basins of the Marmara. In addition, although Marmara and Black Sea sub-regions have the highest daily rainfall potential during NE types, high daily rainfall totals are recorded in all sub-regions except the Black Sea during NW types.     

Possible impacts of Barents Sea ice on the Eurasian atmospheric circulation and the rainfall of East China in the beginning of summer

Possible influences of the Barents Sea ice anomalies on the Eurasian atmospheric circulation and the East China precipitation distribution in the late spring and early summer (May-June) are investigated by analyzing the observational data and the output of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM).The study indicates that the sea ice condition of the Barents Sea from May to July may be interrelated with the atmospheric circulation of June. When there is more than average sea ice in the Barents Sea, the local geopotential height of the 500-hPa level will decrease, and the same height in the Lake Baikal and Okhotsk regions will increase and decrease respectively to form a wave-chain structure over North Eurasia.This kind of anomalous height pattern is beneficial to more precipitation in the south part of East China and less in the north.     

Simulation of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in an atmosphere-ocean global coupled model. Part II: weakening in a climate change experiment: a feedback mechanism

Most state-of-the art global coupled models simulate a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in climate change scenarios but the mechanisms leading to this weakening are still being debated. The third version of the CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques) global atmosphere-ocean-sea ice coupled model (CNRM-CM3) was used to conduct climate change experiments for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4). The analysis of the A1B scenario experiment shows that global warming leads to a slowdown of North Atlantic deep ocean convection and thermohaline circulation south of Iceland. This slowdown is triggered by a freshening of the Arctic Ocean and an increase in freshwater outflow through Fram Strait. Sea ice melting in the Barents Sea induces a local amplification of the surface warming, which enhances the cyclonic atmospheric circulation around Spitzberg. This anti-clockwise circulation forces an increase in Fram Strait outflow and a simultaneous increase in ocean transport of warm waters toward the Barents Sea, favouring further sea ice melting and surface warming in the Barents Sea. Additionally, the retreat of sea ice allows more deep water formation north of Iceland and the thermohaline circulation strengthens there. The transport of warm and saline waters toward the Barents Sea is further enhanced, which constitutes a second positive feedback.     

南极海冰涛动与ENSO的关系

对近30年南极海冰密集度资料的EOF和SVD分析，发现南极地区在罗斯海外围和别林斯高晋海的海冰密集度场存在着“翘翘板”的变化特征，并与ENSO有密切联系。由此定义两个海冰关键区的差值为南极海冰涛动指数（ASOI），ASOI超前SOI和Nino3指数2个月时，其正、负相关系数达到最大，并通过α=0.001的信度检验。ASOI高、低指数阶段对应的南半球海平面气温、气压场和风场的合成分析表明，海冰关键区的异常变化可能引起温度、气压、风场的响应而影响南太平洋的洋流，进而对ENSO的发生、发展产生影响。     

Cloudiness over the Black Sea region in 1985–2009 from satellite data

The seasonal and interannual variability ofcloud fraction over the Black Sea region for the period of1985-2009 is analyzed using the CM SAF dataset obtained from the satellite measurements of a high-resolution AVHRR instrument. The features of geographic distribution and seasonal variations in cloudiness are investigated. The causes for its spatial inhomogeneity in different months are analyzed. It is demonstrated using the long-term dataset that the dramatic decrease in the amount of cloudiness occurred over the Black Sea region from 67% in 1985 to 54% in 2008. The value of the trend is -0.4% per year. Both the trends and the features of interannual variability of cloudiness, in particular, strongly pronounced four-year cycles, are in antiphase with variations in sea surface temperature. The cloudiness reduction accompanied by the increase in the influx of short-wave radiation may be the basic reason for the warming and sea surface temperature variations in the Black Sea region.     

Water Circulation Off the Northeastern Coast of Sakhalin during the Passage of Three Types of Deep Cyclones over the Sea of Okhotsk

Based on the numerical simulation of water circulation in the Sea of Okhotsk in 1986 to 2015, the impact of deep cyclones on the circulation off the northeastern coast of Sakhalin is studied. The circulation in the Sea of Okhotsk is simulated with the COSMO-Ru-INMOM-CICE model configuration, where the COSMO-Ru and INMOM resolve explicitly the mesoscale atmosphere and ocean dynamics and the CICE resolves the ice cover evolution. The extreme atmospheric events associated with the intensive cyclone activity over the Sea of Okhotsk during the cold season are classified. It is found that high velocity is typical of the cyclones coming to the sea from Sakhalin, and wind speed on the periphery is higher for the cyclones coming to the Sea of Okhotsk from the south and southwest. The analysis of water circulation response off the northeastern coast of Sakhalin demonstrates that the meridional current velocity on the shelf increased by several times from the sea surface to the bottom for all types of cyclones. On the edge of the shelf, southern currents intensified in the surface and bottom layers during the passage of cyclones and at the intermediate depths during the passage of fronts. On the continental slope, southern currents intensified in the surface, intermediate, and bottom layers depending on the type of extreme events.

     

Effects of the distribution of hydrological and hydrobiological parameters on the structure of transparency field in the upper layer of the Black Sea pelagic zone

Considered are the effects of suspended matter content and water mass dynamics on the formation of optical structure of water in the upper layer of the deep part of the Black Sea using the data of long-term simultaneous observations. It is demonstrated that the peculiarities of horizontal distribution of the depth of transparent and turbid optical layers depend on the distribution of hydrological parameters characterizing the dynamic processes in the upper layer of the sea. Computed and analyzed are the parameters of regression relationship between the beam attenuation coefficient and the concentration of organic and total suspension and chlorophyll-a as well as between the depth of transparent layer and the position of the lower boundary of cold intermediate layer in different dynamic formations in spring, summer, and autumn.     

Numerical Simulation of the Regional Ocean Circulation in the Coastal Areas of Chinaal

1.IntroductionInrecentyears,manystudiesonthemechanismoftheregionalclimateformationandvariationhavebeendonebyusingnestedhigh--resolutionregionalclimatemodels.TheregionalclimatemodelshavepresentedbetterPerformancesinsimulatingregionalclimatefeaturesthanlarge--scalegeneralcirculationmodels(GCM)becauseoftheaccuraterepresentationsofhigh--resolutiontopography,detailedunderlyingsurfacecharacteristics,landsurfaceprocessesandplanetaryboundarylayerparameterization.However,theoceanpartwithinthemodeldom…     

Simulated decadal oscillations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a cold climate state

The significance of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) for regional and hemispheric climate change requires a complete understanding using fully coupled climate models. Here we present a persistent, decadal oscillation in a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model. While the present study is limited by the lack of comparisons with paleo-proxy records, the purpose is to reveal a new theoretically interesting solution found in the fully-coupled climate model. The model exhibits two multi-century-long stable states with one dominated by decadal MOC oscillations. The oscillations involve an interaction between anomalous advective transport of salt and surface density in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Their time scale is fundamentally determined by the advection. In addition, there is a link between the MOC oscillations and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like sea level pressure anomalies. The analysis suggests an interaction between the NAO and an anomalous subpolar gyre circulation in which sea ice near and south of the Labrador Sea plays an important role in generating a large local thermal anomaly and a meridional temperature gradient. The latter induces a positive feedback via synoptic eddy activity in the atmosphere. In addition, the oscillation only appears when the Nordic Sea is completely covered by sea ice in winter, and deep convection is active only near the Irminger Sea. Such conditions are provided by a substantially colder North Atlantic climate than today.