联合卫星重力和卫星测高确定南极绕极流

联合基于GRACE重力卫星观测资料恢复的重力场模型(EIGEN-GL04S1)和卫星测高推求的平均海面高模型(KMSS04)来构造南极绕极流区域的平均海面动力地形,并利用小波滤波方法去掉短波及噪声信号,进而推算大、中尺度的绕极流。与非卫星重力场模型、同化资料及海洋水文资料确定相应结果的验证分析表明:基于新的卫星重力场模型推算的南极绕极流区域的海面动力地形、PF、SAF和表层流场等都与海洋学结果相吻合,且局部特征更加清晰。表明卫-卫跟踪重力卫星计划确定的地球重力场模型较之以前存在的重力场模型在中长波部分精度有较大提高,从大地测量(从空间)角度来探测南极绕极流已达到较高的精度。     

A new nutation series for a more realistic model earth

The frequency-dependent correction coefficients with respect to the forced nutations of a rigid earth are computed using the complex scalar gravitational-motion equations for an earth model with an anelastic mantle. Oceanic loads and tidal currents enter the model via outer boundary conditions. The ellipticity of the core-mantle boundary and the dynamical ellipticity are adjusted to observations. This requires the behaviour inside the model earth to be regarded as non-hydrostatic. Some relevant equations for the evaluation of boundary conditions and some terms in the equations of motion are expanded to second order in ellipticity. The computation of the equipotential-surface ellipticity profile is carried to second order as well. These second-order expansions lead to increased accuracy of the results in general. Moreover, one achieves a better reliability for the integration at frequencies close to a resonance. This allows the integration of the equations of motion at any relevant nutation period without the need for a normal-mode expansion. A complete new nutation series for a realistic model earth is presented.     

Combination of TOPEX/POSEIDON data with a hydrographic inversion for determination of the oceanic general circulation and its relation to geoid accuracy

A global estimate of the absolute oceanic general circulation from a geostrophic inversion of in situ hydrographic data is tested against and then combined with an estimate obtained from TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetric data and a geoid model computed using the JGM-3 gravity-field solution. Within the quantitative uncertainties of both the hydrographic inversion and the geoid estimate, the two estimates derived by very different methods are consistent. When the in situ inversion is combined with the altimetry/geoid scheme using a recursive inverse procedure, a new solution, fully consistent with both hydrography and altimetry, is found. There is, however, little reduction in the uncertainties of the calculated ocean circulation and its mass and heat fluxes because the best available geoid estimate remains noisy relative to the purely oceano-graphic inferences. The conclusion drawn from this is that the comparatively large errors present in the existing geoid models now limit the ability of satellite altimeter data to improve directly the general ocean circulation models derived from in situ measurements. Because improvements in the geoid could be realized through a dedicated spaceborne gravity recovery mission, the impact of hypothetical much better, future geoid estimates on the circulation uncertainty is also quantified, showing significant hypothetical reductions in the uncertainties of oceanic transport calculations, Full ocean general circulation models could better exploit both existing oceanographic data and future gravity-mission data, but their present use is severely limited by the inability to quantify their error budgets.     

Estimating gambling venue catchments for impact assessment using a calibrated gravity model

Gambling using electronic gaming machines (EGMs) has emerged as a significant public health issue. While social impact assessments are required prior to the granting of new gaming machine licenses in Australia, there are a few established techniques for estimating the spatial distribution of a venue’s clientele. To this end, we calibrated a Huff model of gambling venue catchments based on a geocoded postal survey (n = 7040). We investigated the impact of different venue attractiveness measures, distance measures, distance decay functions, levels of spatial aggregation and venue types on model fit and results. We then compared model estimates for different behavioural subgroups. Our calibrated spatial model is a significant improvement on previously published models, increasing R² from 0.23 to 0.64. Venue catchments differ radically in size and intensity. As different population subgroups are attracted to different venues, there is no single best index of venue attractiveness applicable to all subpopulations. The calibrated Huff model represents a useful regulatory tool for predicting the extent and composition of gambling venue catchments. It may assist in decision-making with regard to new license applications and evaluating the impact of health interventions such as mandated reductions in EGM numbers. Our calibrated parameters may be used to improve model accuracy in other jurisdictions.     

基于GRACE卫星和GLDAS系统的地下水水位估算模型——以和田地区克里雅河流域为例

地球重力场的变化是导致陆地水储量变化的重要因素之一,利用GRACE(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment)重力场恢复与气候实验重力卫星数据,结合GLDAS(Global Land Data Assimilation Systems)全球陆面数据同化系统和实测地下水位数据,反演和田地区克里雅河流域11年间四季和田地区的陆地水储量动态变化,模拟计算地下水等效水高变化趋势,构建了地下水水位估算模型。研究结果表明：和田地区春、夏两季的陆地水储量呈现出增加趋势,而秋、冬两季出现亏损状态;GRACE地球重力卫星所反演的陆地水储量比GLDAS同化系统所模拟的水资源变化更为剧烈,但2类数据的动态变化拟合度很高;GLDAS水资源等效水高二阶微分、GLDAS水资源变化倒数一阶微分、GRACE陆地水储量变化倒数变化、地下水储量变化一阶微分的敏感程度最高,构建的多元逐步回归模型明显优于线性函数,且水位深度越浅,该估算模型的适用性越高。     

重力模型参数空间差异研究——以中国城市间铁路客流为例

重力模型是重要的空间相互作用模型,已经在相关研究和实践中得到了广泛应用.在重力模型应用中,结果对参数的敏感性较高,不同的参数设置就可能导致结果体系的巨大差异,故精确的参数是重力模型应用的基础.许多研究关注了重力模型参数的提取,但限于数据等因素,参数在空间上的差异性尚未得到充分的重视.本文采用2010年城市间铁路客运量作为城市间相互作用强度的反映,以城市市辖区居民总可支配收入作为城市的“质量”,刻画城市本身的吸引力,进而通过回归分析考察重力模型的参数结果;并结合地理信息系统的空间插值工具,分析重力模型中各个参数的空间差异并得到可视化结果.相比于既有研究,本文在变量选取中增加了城市间列车交流频次这一变量,与平均运行时间结合共同反映城市之间的“距离”,使模型拟合结果得到较大改进.结果表明,重力模型参数取值在空间上存在显著差异,对不同区域使用统一的重力模型参数可能使结果出现较大偏差,因此将重力模型应用到具体实践中时,不能忽略参数的空间异质性.