基于改进云图法的结构概率地震需求分析

概率地震需求分析是美国太平洋地震工程研究中心(Pacific Earthquake Engineering ResearchCenter,PEER)提出的新一代"性能化地震工程(Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering,PBEE)"理论框架的重要一环。传统的概率地震需求分析方法称为"云图法",这种方法针对确定性结构进行一系列地震动作用下的非线性动力分析,从而得到地震动强度参数与结构地震需求的"云图"。然而,传统的云图法只能考虑地震动的不确定性,而无法考虑结构的不确定性。为此,结合拉丁超立方体抽样技术,提出一种能综合考虑地震动不确定性和结构不确定性的改进云图法,并将传统的概率地震需求分析内容拓展为概率地震需求模型、概率地震需求易损性分析、概率地震需求危险性分析三个层次。以一榀五层三跨钢筋混凝土框架结构为例,分别采用传统云图法和改进云图法对其进行概率地震需求分析,得到了该结构的概率地震需求模型、地震需求易损性曲线和地震需求危险性曲线。分析结果表明:提出的方法可以有效地考虑地震动与结构的不确定性,避免不考虑结构的不确定性而低估结构的地震风险性。     

Discussion about the relationship between seismic belt and seismic statistical zone

This paper makes a summary of status of delimitation of seismic zones and belts of China firstly in aspects of studying history,purpose,usage,delimiting principles,various presenting forms and main spectialties.Then the viewpoints are emphasized,making geographical divisions by seismicity is just the most important purpose of delimiting seismic belts and the concept of seismic belt is also quite different from that of seismic statistical zone used in CPSHA method.The concept of seismic statistical zone and its history of evolvement are introduced too.Large differences between these two concepts exist separately in their statistical property,actual meaning,gradation,required scale,and property of refusing to overlap each other,aim and usage of delimitation.But in current engineering practice,these two concepts are confused.On the one hand,it causes no fit theory for delimiting seismic statistical zone in PSHA to be set up;on the other hand,researches about delimitation of seismic belts with purposes of seismicity zoning and studying on structural environment,mechanism of earthquake generating also paues to go abead.Major conclusions are given in the end of this paper,that seismic statistical zone bases on the result of seismic belt delimiting,it only arises in and can be used in the especial PSHA method of China with considering spatially and termporally inhomogeneous seismic activities,and its concept should be clearly differentiated from the comcept of seismic belt.     

Influence of uncertainty in delimitation of seismic statistical zone on results of PSHA

The seismic hazard of research area is evaluated by probabilistic analysis method for three different seismic statistical zone scenarios.The influence of uncertainty in seismic statistical zone delimiting on the evaluation result is discussed too.It can be seen that for those local sites along zone‘s border or within areas with vast change of upper bound magnitude among different scenarios the influence on seismic hazard result should not be neglected.     

Regional variation of spectral parameters for seismic design from broadband probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

The characterisation of the seismic hazard input is a critical element of any seismic design code, not only in terms of the absolute levels of ground motion considered but also of the shape of the design spectrum. In the case of Europe, future revisions of the seismic design provisions, both at a national and a pan‐European level, may implement considerable modifications to the existing provisions in light of recent seismic hazard models, such as the 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model. Constraint of the shape of the long‐period design spectrum from seismic hazard estimates on such a scale has not been possible, however, owing to the limited spectral period range of existing ground motion models. Building upon recent developments in ground motion modelling, the 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model is adapted here with a new ground motion logic tree to provide a broadband Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for rock sites across a spectral period range from 0.05 seconds to 10.0 seconds. The resulting uniform hazard spectra (UHS) are compared against existing results for European and broadband Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis and against a proposed formulation of a generalised design spectrum in which controlling parameters can be optimised to best fit the uniform hazard spectra in order to demonstrate their variability on a European scale. Significant variations in the controlling parameters of the design spectrum are seen both across and within stable and active regions. These trends can help guide recalibrations of the code spectra in future revisions to seismic design codes, particularly for the longer‐period displacement spectrum.     

Improved seismic hazard model with application to probabilistic seismic demand analysis

An improved seismic hazard model for use in performance‐based earthquake engineering is presented. The model is an improved approximation from the so‐called ‘power law’ model, which is linear in log–log space. The mathematics of the model and uncertainty incorporation is briefly discussed. Various means of fitting the approximation to hazard data derived from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis are discussed, including the limitations of the model. Based on these ‘exact’ hazard data for major centres in New Zealand, the parameters for the proposed model are calibrated. To illustrate the significance of the proposed model, a performance‐based assessment is conducted on a typical bridge, via probabilistic seismic demand analysis. The new hazard model is compared to the current power law relationship to illustrate its effects on the risk assessment. The propagation of epistemic uncertainty in the seismic hazard is also considered. To allow further use of the model in conceptual calculations, a semi‐analytical method is proposed to calculate the demand hazard in closed form. For the case study shown, the resulting semi‐analytical closed form solution is shown to be significantly more accurate than the analytical closed‐form solution using the power law hazard model, capturing the ‘exact’ numerical integration solution to within 7% accuracy over the entire range of exceedance rate. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

强夯地震效应浅析

为了评估强夯地震效应对周边建筑物的影响,从时域、频域等角度分析强夯地震效应的衰减规律,给出了强夯地震动加速度。与距离R的衰减关系。对强夯地震信号做频谱分析表明,强夯地震波振动主频一般都小于10Hz,其地震效应与天然地震较为接近,因此,选用《中国地震烈度表》(GB／T17742—1999)作为衡量振动对周围建筑物影响的标准,并由此确定一定能级的强夯振动对周围建筑物的影响范围。     

密肋复合墙体的地震损伤极限概率分析

密肋复合墙体是密肋壁板结构体系的主要承载构件,本文根据32块密肋复合墙体在单调及低周往复循环荷载作用下的试验结果,结合我国现行规范的目标性能,提出了针对密肋复合墙体的三个损伤性能水平及相应的量化参数,研究了这种新型墙体的损伤模型及各性能水平的允许极限破坏指标的概率特性。结果表明,采用四种地震损伤模型计算的墙体屈服、极限、破坏状态的损伤指数,在给定的显著性水平下分别服从正态分布、对数正态分布或极值Ⅰ型分布,并得到了分布的统计参数,可为该类墙体基于损伤性能的可靠度分析提供依据和参考。     

Potential rupture surface model and its application on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

Potential sources are simplified as point sources or linear sources in current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods. Focus size of large earthquakes is considerable, and fault rupture attitudes may have great influ-ence upon the seismic hazard of a site which is near the source. Under this circumstance, it is unreasonable to use the simplified potential source models in the PSHA, so a potential rupture surface model is proposed in this paper. Adopting this model, we analyze the seismic hazard near the Chelungpu fault that generated the Chi-Chi (Jiji) earthquake with magnitude 7.6 and the following conclusions are reached. 1 This model is reasonable on the base of focal mechanism, especially for sites near potential earthquakes with large magnitude; 2 The attitudes of poten-tial rupture surfaces have great influence on the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and seismic zoning.     

地震危险性与核电厂密闭可靠性的评价方法

本文就考虑地震危险性时，核电厂安全壳的防泄露可靠性的评价方法进行了理论研究，探讨了地震模型问题中的参数确定的一些方面，给出了可靠性评价的总体思路、分析方法及具体步骤，确定了要考虑的不定参数及其描述，并进而利用概率断裂力学推导出可靠性计算的一般公式。     

累积绝对速度在核电厂地震危险性分析中的应用研究

指出了运用我国现行的考虑时空非均匀性的地震危险性分析计算方法对核电厂等设计精良的设施进行地震危险性分析时所存在的问题.介绍了累积绝对速度（CAV）的概念,并将其引入到我国现行的考虑时空非均匀性的地震危险性分析计算方法之中,用以排除厂址周围小震对核电厂地震危险性分析的影响,并选取实际工程场点进行了试算.试算结果表明,此方法能明显排除厂址周围小震对地震危险性分析结果的影响.     

基于性能的大跨径斜拉桥主塔概率地震风险分析

地震作用下,若斜拉桥主塔发生损伤,将使整体损伤风险明显提高。因此对斜拉桥主塔进行地震易损性分析来评定主塔的抗震能力,进而评估斜拉桥主塔在设计基准期内的地震损伤风险,具有重要的工程和经济意义。本文通过SAP2000有限元分析软件对某斜拉桥主塔进行了纵横向的地震易损性及危险性分析,结合地震易损性和危险性分析推导出概率地震风险函数,进而开展了斜拉桥的概率地震风险分析。分析结果证明,在100年设计基准期内,纵桥向或横桥向地震作用下,本文斜拉桥"H"型主塔均满足E3水准抗震设防要求。     

大坝抗震安全性研究进展

论证了广大坝抗震安全性研究的实践与发展现状。目前大坝在地震作用下的应力与变形分析方法主要有拟静力法和动力响应分析法,并依据大坝混凝土的抗拉强度判断大坝的安全性;各国规范体现的抗震设防弹念和大坝材料的容许应力差别很大。坝址河谷不同高程处地震动状态不尽相同、河谷两恻同一高程处地震动也不一样。混凝土材料的强度与加载速度、应变速率有关;地震时大坝不同部位的应变速率不相同、同一部位的应变速率也随时间变化;混凝土的动态强度既与应变速率有关。也与应变历史等其它因素有关。大坝河谷地震动的输入机理和模型研究、混凝土的动态强度的变化规律探索、大坝抗震安全性评价准则的完善与创新等将有待深入。通过以上内容针对性分析,提出了大坝抗震评价的一些合理建议、方法以及进一步的研究方向。     

Probabilistic seismic demand model for pounding risk assessment

Earthquake‐induced pounding of adjacent structures can cause severe structural damage, and advanced probabilistic approaches are needed to obtain a reliable estimate of the risk of impact. This study aims to develop an efficient and accurate probabilistic seismic demand model (PSDM) for pounding risk assessment between adjacent buildings, which is suitable for use within modern performance‐based engineering frameworks. In developing a PSDM, different choices can be made regarding the intensity measures (IMs) to be used, the record selection, the analysis technique applied for estimating the system response at increasing IM levels, and the model to be employed for describing the response statistics given the IM. In the present paper, some of these choices are analyzed and evaluated first by performing an extensive parametric study for the adjacent buildings modeled as linear single‐degree‐of‐freedom systems, and successively by considering more complex nonlinear multi‐degree‐of‐freedom building models. An efficient and accurate PSDM is defined using advanced intensity measures and a bilinear regression model for the response samples obtained by cloud analysis. The results of the study demonstrate that the proposed PSDM allows accurate estimates of the risk of pounding to be obtained while limiting the number of simulations required. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Probability density evolution method for seismic liquefaction performance analysis of earth dam

To investigate the seismic liquefaction performance of earth dams under earthquake loading, we present a new methodology for evaluating the seismic response of earth dams based on a performance‐based approach and a stochastic vibration method. This study assesses an earthfill dam located in a high‐intensity seismic region of eastern China. The seismic design levels and corresponding performance indexes are selected according to performance‐based criteria and dam seismic codes. Then, nonlinear constitutive models are used to derive an array of deterministic seismic responses of the earth dam by dynamic time series analysis based on a finite element model. Based on these responses, the stochastic seismic responses and dynamic reliability of the earth dam are obtained using the probability density evolution method. Finally, the seismic performance of the earth dam is assessed by the performance‐based and reliability criteria. Our results demonstrate the accuracy of the seismic response analysis of earth dams using the random vibration method. This new method of dynamic performance analysis of earth dams demonstrates that performance‐based criteria and reliability evaluation can provide more objective indices for decision‐making rather than using deterministic seismic acceleration time series as is the current normal practice. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Probabilistic estimate of seismic response design values of RC frames

Probabilistically controlled design values of the nonlinear seismic response of reinforced concrete frames are obtained using a method previously proposed by the authors. The method allows to calculate conservative design values characterized by a predefined non‐exceedance probability, using a limited number of spectrum‐fitting generated accelerograms. Herein the method is applied to elastic‐strain hardening single degree of freedom systems representative of RC framed structures and is then assessed with reference to four reinforced concrete model frames designed according to EC8. The frames are characterized by different natural periods and aspect ratios. The results, compared with those obtained applying current EC8 recommendations, show the effectiveness of the proposed method. EC8 provides for design values of the seismic response of a structure with a nonlinear behavior computed as the mean value of the responses to seven accelerograms or as the maximum value of the responses to three accelerograms. These two criteria lead to design values characterized by very different and uncontrolled non‐exceedance probability levels, while the proposed method allows the analyst to directly control the non‐exceedance probability level of the calculated design values. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A probabilistic approach for the prediction of seismic resilience of bridges

This paper proposes a probabilistic approach for the pre‐event assessment of seismic resilience of bridges, including uncertainties associated with expected damage, restoration process, and rebuilding/rehabilitation costs. A fragility analysis performs the probabilistic evaluation of the level of damage (none, slight, moderate, extensive, and complete) induced on bridges by a seismic event. Then, a probabilistic six‐parameter sinusoidal‐based function describes the bridge functionality over time. Depending on the level of regional seismic hazard, the level of performance that decision makers plan to achieve, the allowable economic impact, and the available budget for post‐event rehabilitation activities, a wide spectrum of scenarios are provided. Possible restoration strategies accounting for the desired level of resilience and direct and indirect costs are investigated by performing a Monte Carlo simulation based on Latin hypercube sampling. Sensitivity analyses show how the recovery parameters affect the resilience assessment and seismic impact. Finally, the proposed approach is applied to an existing highway bridge located along a segment of I‐15, between the cities of Corona and Murrieta, in California. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

大型岩体洞室采用柔性垫层减震的可行性研究

采用无限元作为岩体地下洞室静动力分析的边界条件,建立了岩体地下洞室的静动力有限元一无限元(FE-IE)计算模型,分析了柔性垫层对水电站厂房这类大型岩体洞室结构的减震效果.研究结果表明:柔性垫层虽未能从根本上改变岩体洞室结构的地震响应,但是设置一定厚度的柔性垫层后不仅能充分发挥岩体洞室围岩的自承能力,而且还能明显地减小混...     

Influence of the nonlinear behavior of viscous dampers on the seismic demand hazard of building frames

This paper analyzes the influence of damper properties on the probabilistic seismic performance of building frames equipped with viscous dampers. In particular, a probabilistic methodology is employed to evaluate the influence of the damper nonlinearity, measured by the damper exponent, on the performance of structural and nonstructural components of building frames, as described by the response hazard curves of the relevant engineering demand parameters. The performance variations due to changes in the damper nonlinearity level are evaluated and highlighted by considering two realistic design scenarios and by comparing the results of a set of cases involving dampers with different exponents designed to provide the same deterministic performance. By this way, it is possible to evaluate the influence of the nonlinear response and of its dispersion on the demand hazard. It is shown that the damper nonlinearity level strongly affects the seismic performance and different trends are observed for the demand parameters of interest. A comparison with code provisions shows that further investigation is necessary to provide more reliable design formulas accounting for the damping nonlinearity level. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of seismic retrofit of bridges on transportation networks

The objective of this research is to determine the effect earthquakes have on the performance of transportation network systems. To do this, bridge fragility curves, expressed as a function of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV), were developed. Network damage was evaluated under the 1994 Northridge earthquake and scenario earthquakes. A probabilistic model was developed to determine the effect of repair of bridge damage on the improvement of the network performance as days passed after the event. As an example, the system performance degradation measured in terms of an index, “Drivers Delay,“ is calculated for the Los Angeles area transportation system, and losses due to Drivers Delay with and without retrofit were estimated.     

Research on seismic stress triggering

Introduction What is called seismic stress triggering refers to that stress change tensor produced by previous earthquake projected on the fault plane and slip direction of subsequent earthquakes, taking into account normal stress, pore pressure and friction coefficient, and Coulomb failure stress change DCFS can be obtained. If the direction of Coulomb failure stress changes are consistent with slip direction of subsequent seismic mechanism, e.g., Coulomb failure stress changes are positive…