Estimation of Strong Ground Motion from a Great Earthquake Mw 8.5 in Central Seismic Gap Region, Himalaya (India) Using Empirical Green’s Function Technique

In the present study ground motions for a Mw 8.5 scenario earthquake are estimated at 13 sites in Kumaun-Garhwal region using the empirical Green’s function technique. The recordings of 1991 Uttarkashi earthquake of Mw 6.8 at these sites are used as an element earthquake. A heterogeneous source model consisting of two asperities is considered for simulating the ground motions. The entire central seismic gap (CSG) can expect acceleration in excess of 100 cm/s² with NW portion in excess of 400 cm/s² and SE between 100 and 200 cm/s². The central portion can expect peak ground acceleration (PGA) between 200 and 400 cm/s². It has been observed from simulation of strong ground motion that sites located near the rupture initiation point can expect accelerations in excess of 1g. In the present analysis, Bhatwari and Uttarkashi can expect ground accelerations in excess of 1g. The estimates of the PGA are compared with earlier studies in the same region using different methodologies and it was found that the results are comparable. This has put constrains on the expected PGAs in this region. The obtained PGA values can be used in identifying the vulnerable areas in the central Himalaya, thereby facilitating the planning, design and construction of new structures and strengthening of the existing structures in the region.     

Analytical investigation of the observed damage in an RC building after March 08, 2010 Kovancilar-Turkey earthquake

Although the M _w  = 6.1 Kovancilar-Turkey earthquake of March 8, 2010 had a moderate intensity with a recorded PGA of 0.07g, it caused heavy damages in 2870 residential buildings having traditional or masonry structural systems and 42 human loss. Damage has been reported to be particularly concentrated at Kovancilar and Palu counties of Elazig province. Five hours after this earthquake, an aftershock of M _L  = 5.6 with a PGA of 0.08g struck the same region, developing the existing damages in the structures. In order to investigate this significant amount of reported damages under the effect of such low ground shakings, our reconnaissance team arrived at the region and unexpectedly came across a two-story RC building settled on a slope in Yukari Demirci village, which suffered moderate damage during the shakes. The outline of this paper can be summarized as the presentation of the results of the investigations in the order of describing the overall observed damages within the region; evaluation of the recorded motions; the details of the field-work carried out for the two story RC building and the analytical estimation of the site-assessed damages by means of nonlinear dynamic analysis. Employing the gathered data, the building is analytically modeled as plane frames and analyses are performed under the effects of the processed earthquake records, which are applied to the structure one after another in the consistent directions due to the building location. It is shown herein that the structural elements remain in the elastic range subjected to the processed recorded motions; henceforth acceleration time histories are scaled step by step up to 0.40g and computations are repeated for each acceleration level. Comparison with the observed and the analytically obtained damages confirmed that approximately 0.30g of peak ground acceleration should have to be exposed during the earthquakes.     

Development of damage probability matrices based on Greek earthquake damage data

A comprehensive study is presented for empirical seismic vulnerability assessment of typical structural types, representative of the building stock of Southern Europe, based on a large set of damage statistics. The observational database was obtained from post-earthquake surveys carried out in the area struck by the September 7, 1999 Athens earthquake. After analysis of the collected observational data, a unified damage database has been created which comprises 180,945 damaged buildings from/after the near-field area of the earthquake. The damaged buildings are classified in specific structural types, according to the materials, seismic codes and construction techniques in Southern Europe. The seismic demand is described in terms of both the regional macroseismic intensity and the ratio αg/ao, where αg is the maximum peak ground acceleration (PGA) of the earthquake event and ao is the unique value PGA that characterizes each municipality shown on the Greek hazard map. The relative and cumulative frequencies of the different damage states for each structural type and each intensity level are computed in terms of damage ratio. Damage probability matrices (DPMs) and vulnerability curves are obtained for specific structural types. A comparison analysis is fulfilled between the produced and the existing vulnerability models.     

A preliminary study on seismic design criteria of offshore platforms in Bohai Sea of China

This paper analyzes the seismicity in Bohai Sea,introducing a shape factor K to characterize the seismic risk distribution in sub-regions of the sea. Based on the seismic design ground motions for 46 platforms located in the Bohai Sea,a statistical analysis was performed for different peak ground acceleration (PGA) ratios at two different probability levels. In accordance with the two-stage design method,a scheme of two seismic design levels is proposed,and two seismic design objectives are established respectively for the strength level earthquake and the ductility level earthquake. By analogy with and comparison to the Chinese seismic design code for buildings,it is proposed that the probability level for the strength level earthquake and ductility level earthquake have a return period of 200 and 1000 - 2500 years,respectively. The validity of these proposed values is discussed. Finally,the PGAs corresponding to these two probability levels are calculated for different sub-regions of the Bohai Sea.     

Evaluation of ASCE 7 equations for designing acceleration‐sensitive nonstructural components using data from instrumented buildings

This study uses instrumented buildings and models of code‐based designed buildings to validate the results of previous studies that highlighted the need to revise the ASCE 7 F_p equation for designing nonstructural components (NSCs) through utilizing oversimplified linear and nonlinear models. The evaluation of floor response spectra of a large number of instrumented buildings illustrates that, unlike the ASCE 7 approach, the in‐structure and the component amplification factors are a function of the ratio of NSC period to the supporting building modal periods, the ground motion intensity, and the NSC location. It is also shown that the recorded ground motions at the base of instrumented buildings in most cases are significantly lower than design earthquake (DE) ground motions. Because ASCE 7 is meant to provide demands at a DE level, for a more reliable evaluation of the F_p equation, 2 representative archetype buildings are designed based on the ASCE 7‐16 seismic provisions and exposed to various ground motion intensity levels (including those consistent with the ones experienced by instrumented buildings and the DE). Simulation results of the archetype buildings, consistent with previous numerical studies, illustrate the tendency of the ASCE 7 in‐structure amplification factor, [1 + 2(z/h)] , to significantly overestimate demands at all floor levels and the ASCE 7 limit of to in many cases underestimate the calculated NSC amplification factors. Furthermore, the product of these 2 amplification factors (that represents the normalized peak NSC acceleration) in some cases exceeds the ASCE 7 equation by a factor up to 1.50.     

Earthquake ground motion predictive equations for Garhwal Himalaya,India

Predictive equations based on the stochastic approach are developed for earthquake ground motions from Garhwal Himalayan earthquakes of 3.5≤M_w≤6.8 at a distance of 10≤R≤250 km. The predicted ground motion parameters are response spectral values at frequencies from 0.25 to 20 Hz, and peak ground acceleration (PGA). The ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are derived from an empirically based stochastic ground motion model. The GMPEs show a fair agreement with the empirically developed ground motion equations from Himalaya as well as the NGA equation. The proposed relations also reasonably predict the observed ground motion of two major Himalayan earthquakes from Garhwal Himalayan region. For high magnitudes, there is insufficient data to satisfactorily judge the relationship; however it reasonably predicts the 1991 Uttarkashi earthquake (M_w=6.8) and 1999 Chamoli earthquake (M_w=6.4) from Garhwal Himalaya region.     

最大峰值加速度与有效峰值加速度的大小比例关系及影响因素探讨

分别以最大峰值加速度(以下简称PGA)和有效峰值加速度(以下简称EPA)为参数,对金沙江流域上12个工程场点进行了地震危险性分析,得到了各个场点在不同的年超越概率下的基岩PGA和EPA值。通过对PGA、EPA值比较分析认为:PGA与EPA值的大小比例关系主要受年超越概率大小的影响,当年超越概率较大时,表现为PGA>EPA;当年超越概率较小时,PGA与EPA的比例关系还与场点周围的潜源分布形式及潜源的震级上限的大小有关,不同的年超越概率、不同的潜源分布形式和震级上限,可使PGA>EPA,也可使PGA相似文献   

近断层强地震动场预测

以1997年4月11日新疆伽师地震（M_w6.1）为例,详细介绍了近断层强地震动场的预测方法.首先,用有限断层震源建模方法建立了该次地震的震源模型;然后,基于动力学拐角频率的地震动随机模拟方法,模拟了该次地震仅有主震加速度记录、且位于巨厚土层上的三个台站的加速度时程,并用实际地震记录进行了验证.在此基础上,基于预测的近断层77个节点的加速度时程的峰值绘制了该次地震的加速度场.结果表明,上述方法模拟的加速度时程在0.5 Hz以上的高频段是可行的、实用的;预测的近断层加速度场具有非常明显的上盘效应.地表最大加速度的范围与断层面上最大凹凸体位置相对应,说明与断层面上凹凸体相对应的地面上的建（构）筑物将会遭受到较为严重的震害.     

Investigating the role of source mechanism,surface topography,and attenuation on the observed PGA pattern in May 28, 2004, Mw 6.2 Baladeh earthquake (Iran)

In this paper, we use seismic waveform simulation to investigate the influence of source mechanism complexity, surface topography, and quality factor on the observed peak ground motions in May 28, 2004, moment magnitude (Mw) 6.2 Baladeh earthquake. The observed peak ground acceleration (PGA) pattern in this event, which is the biggest earthquake to hit the Central Alborz Mountains of Iran in modern instrumental era, is irregular in some respects. First, the observed PGA contours are elongated toward north-west and, second, the maximum observed PGA value of 1049 cm/s² on the horizontal component of Hasan Keyf station 50 km away from the epicenter is quite high and irregular for an earthquake of this magnitude, at such long distance. In this study, we employ the spectral element method, implemented in SPECFEM3D software package to simulate the 3D wave propagation from several source models in the area. Our results suggest directivity effect is the main cause of the anomalous observations in this earthquake and could account for the elongation of PGA contours and also the anomalous maximum PGA value observed at Hasan Keyf strong motion station. We show that the surface topography has minor effect on the observed peak ground acceleration and the resulting PGA maps. Also by finding the bounds of seismic quality factor effect on the peak ground acceleration values, we show that this factor could not account for the elongation of iso-acceleration contours in the north-west direction.     

Seismic behaviour of flexible retaining systems subjected to short-duration moderately strong excitation

Using finite-element modelling, this paper explores the magnitude and distribution of dynamic earth pressures on several types of flexible retaining systems: L-shaped reinforced-concrete walls, piled walls with horizontal or with strongly inclined anchors, and reinforced-soil walls. The utilized base excitation is typical of earthquake motions of either high or moderately low dominant frequencies having a peak ground acceleration (PGA) of 0.40 g and relatively short duration. Linear as well as non-linear (Mohr–Coulomb) soil behaviour is investigated, under dry conditions. The results show that, as the degree of realism in the analysis increases, we can explain the frequently observed satisfactory performance of such retaining systems during strong seismic shaking.     

Seismic fragility of traction elevators

Second‐generation performance‐based earthquake engineering (PBEE‐2) requires a library of component fragility functions to estimate probabilistic damage to a wide variety of building components. The present work draws on a large body of (mostly) post‐earthquake reconnaissance and (some) post‐earthquake survey observations of traction elevators to create fragility functions useful in PBEE‐2. Two surveys provide detailed observations of 115 representative elevators at 12 hospitals shaken in the 1989 Loma Prieta and 1994 Northridge earthquakes and selected without regard to or foreknowledge of damage. Of these, 55 failed and 60 did not. Approximately half were installed after an important code change of 1972, so one can distinguish the performance of pre‐1973 and post‐1973 elevator construction. They experienced a range of strong motion: 22 with peak ground acceleration (PGA) < 0.25 g, 93 with 0.25 g < PGA < 0.85 g. The hospitals had elevator failure rates as low as 0% and as high as 100%. A third survey describes damage qualitatively for six sites with PGA ≤ 0.25 and per‐site failure rates of 0% to perhaps 30%. Fragility functions are offered where the damage state is the loss of functionality of the elevator. The elevators in these surveys exhibit a median capacity of PGA ≈ 0.35 g with a logarithmic standard deviation of 0.40. Capacity is modestly sensitive to whether the elevator was installed before or after 1973. Using building‐specific intensity measures such as S_a(T₁) does not improve the fragility functions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulations of Seismic Hazard for the Pacific Northwest of the United States from Earthquakes Associated with the Cascadia Subduction Zone

-- We investigate the impact of different rupture and attenuation models for the Cascadia subduction zone by simulating seismic hazard models for the Pacific Northwest of the U.S. at 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. We calculate the sensitivity of hazard (probabilistic ground motions) to the source parameters and the attenuation relations for both intraslab and interface earthquakes and present these in the framework of the standard USGS hazard model that includes crustal earthquakes. Our results indicate that allowing the deep intraslab earthquakes to occur anywhere along the subduction zone increases the peak ground acceleration hazard near Portland, Oregon by about 20%. Alternative attenuation relations for deep earthquakes can result in ground motions that differ by a factor of two. The hazard uncertainty for the plate interface and intraslab earthquakes is analyzed through a Monte-Carlo logic tree approach and indicates a seismic hazard exceeding 1 g (0.2 s spectral acceleration) consistent with the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps in western Washington, Oregon, and California and an overall coefficient of variation that ranges from 0.1 to 0.4. Sensitivity studies indicate that the paleoseismic chronology and the magnitude of great plate interface earthquakes contribute significantly to the hazard uncertainty estimates for this region. Paleoseismic data indicate that the mean earthquake recurrence interval for great earthquakes is about 500 years and that it has been 300 years since the last great earthquake. We calculate the probability of such a great earthquake along the Cascadia plate interface to be about 14% when considering a time-dependent model and about 10% when considering a time-independent Poisson model during the next 50-year interval.     

Strong motion simulation by the composite source modeling： A case study of 1679 M8.0 Sanhe-Pinggu earthquake

In this study, a composite source model has been used to calculate the realistic strong ground motions in Beijing area, caused by 1679 MS8.0 earthquake in Sanhe-Pinggu. The results could provide us the useful physical parame-ters for the future seismic hazard analysis in this area. Considering the regional geological/geophysical background, we simulated the scenario earthquake with an associated ground motions in the area ranging from 39.3°N to 41.1°N in latitude and from 115.35°E to 117.55°E in longitude. Some of the key factors which could influence the characteristics of strong ground motion have been discussed, and the resultant peak ground acceleration (PGA) distribution and the peak ground velocity (PGV) distribution around Beijing area also have been made as well. A comparison of the simulated result with the results derived from the attenuation relation has been made, and a suf-ficient discussion about the advantages and disadvantages of composite source model also has been given in this study. The numerical results, such as the PGA, PGV, peak ground displacement (PGD), and the three-component time-histories developed for Beijing area, have a potential application in earthquake engineering field and building code design, especially for the evaluation of critical constructions, government decision making and the seismic hazard assessment by financial/insurance companies.     

Evidence for fault-related directionality and localized site effects from strong motion recordings of the 2003 Boumerdes (Algeria) earthquake: Consequences on damage distribution and the Algerian seismic code

The Algiers–Boumerdes region has been struck by a destructive magnitude 6.8 (M_w) earthquake on May 21, 2003. The study presented in this paper is based on main shock strong motions from 13 stations of the Algerian accelerograph network. A maximum 0.58g peak ground acceleration (PGA) has been recorded at 20 km from the epicenter, only about 150 m away from a PGA of 0.34g, with both a central frequency around 5 Hz, explained by a strong very localized site effect, confirmed by receiver function technique results showing peaks at 5 Hz with amplitudes changing by a factor of 2. Soil amplifications are also evidenced at stations located in the quaternary Mitidja basin, explaining the higher PGA values recorded at these stations than at stations located on firm soil at similar distances from the epicenter. A fault-related directionality effect observed on the strong motion records and confirmed by the study of the seismic movement anisotropy, in agreement with the N65 fault plan direction, explains the SW–NE orientation of the main damage zone. In the near field, strong motions present a high-frequency content starting at 3 Hz with a central frequency around 8 Hz, while in the far field their central frequency is around 3 Hz, explaining the high level of damage in the 3- to 4-story buildings in the epicentral zone. The design spectra overestimate the recorded mean response spectra, and its high corner frequency is less than the recorded one, leading to a re-examination of the seismic design code that should definitively integrate site-related coefficient, to account for the up to now neglected site amplification, as well as a re-modeling of the actual design spectra. Finally, both the proposed Algerian attenuation law and the worldwide laws usually used in Algeria underestimate the recorded accelerations of the 6.8 (M_w) Boumerdes earthquake, clearly showing that it is not possible to extrapolate the proposed Algerian law to major earthquakes.     

Consistency of dynamic site response at Port Island

System identification (SI) methods are used to determine empirical Green's functions (EGF) for soil intervals at the Port Island Site in Kobe, Japan and in shake table model tests performed by the Port and Harbor Research Institute (PHRI) to emulate the site during the 17 January 1995 Hyogo‐ken Nanbu earthquake. The model form for the EGFs is a parametric auto‐regressive moving average (ARMA) model mapping the ground motions recorded at the base of a soil interval to the top of that interval, hence capturing the effect of the soil on the through‐passing wave. The consistency of site response at Port Island before, during, and after the mainshock is examined by application of small motion foreshock EGFs to incoming ground motions over these time intervals. The prediction errors (or misfits) for the foreshocks, the mainshock, and the aftershocks, are assessed to determine the extent of altered soil response as a result of liquefaction of the ground during the mainshock. In addition, the consistency of soil response between field and model test is verified by application of EGFs calculated from the shake table test to the 17 January input data. The prediction error is then used to assess the consistency of behaviour between the two cases. By using EGFs developed for small‐amplitude foreshock ground motions, ground motions were predicted for all intervals of the vertical array except those that liquefied with small error. Analysis of the post‐liquefied ground conditions implies that the site response gradually returns to a pre‐earthquake state. Site behaviour is found to be consistent between foreshocks and the mainshock for the native ground (below 16 m in the field) with a normalized mean square error (NMSE) of 0.080 and a peak ground acceleration (PGA) of 0.5g. When the soil actually liquefies (change of state), recursive models are needed to track the variable soil behaviour for the remainder of the shaking. The recursive models are shown to demonstrate consistency between the shake table tests and the field with a NMSE of 0.102 for the 16 m to surface interval that liquefied. The aftershock ground response was not modelled well with the foreshock EGF immediately after the mainshock (NMSE ranging from 0.37 to 0.92). One month after the mainshock, the prediction error from the foreshock modeled was back to the foreshock error level. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of Strong Ground Motions for 2001 Bhuj (M w 7.6), India Earthquake

The strong ground motions for the 2001 Bhuj (M _w 7.6) India earthquake have been estimated on hard rock and B/C boundary (NEHRP) levels using a recently modified version of stochastic finite fault modeling based on dynamic corner frequency (Motazedian and Atkinson in Bull Seismol Soc Am 95, 995–1010 2005). Incorporation of dynamic corner frequency removes the limitations of earlier stochastic methods. Simulations were carried out at 13 sites in Gujarat where structural response recorder (SRR) recordings are available. In addition, accelerograms were simulated at the B/C boundary at a large number of points distributed on a grid. The corresponding response spectra have also been estimated. The values of peak ground accelerations and spectral accelerations at three periods (0.4, 0.75 and 1.25 s) are presented in the form of contour maps. The maximum value of peak ground acceleration (PGA) in the center of meizoseismal zone is 550 cm/s². The response spectral acceleration in same zone is 900 cm/s² (T = 0.4 s), 600 cm/s² (T = 0.75 s) and 300 cm/s² (T = 1.25 s). The innermost PGA contour is on the fault plane. A comparison of the PGA values obtained at 13 sites in this study with those obtained in earlier studies on the same sites, but employing different methods, show that the present PGA values are comparable at most of the sites. The rate of decay of PGA values is fast at short distances as compared to that at longer distances. The PGA values obtained here put some constraints on the expected values from a similar earthquake in the region. A synthetic intensity map has been prepared from the estimated values of PGA using an empirical relation. A comparison with the reported intensity map of the earthquake shows the synthetic MMI values, as expected, are lower by 1 unit compared to reported intensity map. The contour map of PGA along with the contour maps of spectral acceleration at various periods permit the assessment of damage potential to various categories of houses and other structures. Such information will be quite important in planning of mitigation and disaster management programs in the region.     

鲁甸地震强震动记录与地震动衰减模型的对比研究

利用2014年鲁甸M_S6.5地震断层距小于300 km的32个自由场地观测台站的地震动加速度记录,分析了地震动峰值加速度(PGA)和峰值速度(PGV)的空间分布特征,并对已有地震动衰减模型中的NGA-West2四个模型和1个中国川藏区模型进行了比较分析.研究表明,地震动PGA和PGV衰减最快的方向与断层主破裂方向一致.在整个断层距(R_rup)范围内大多数台站的地震动PGA、PGV和加速度反应谱值(Sa(T=0.1、5.0 s))均位于NGA-West2四个模型预测曲线的±1倍标准差之外.PGA、PGV和Sa(T=5.0 s)的事件内残差均值在-1.43～-0.74之间.Sa(T=0.01～5.0 s)事件内残差均值在整个距离范围内均表现出系统性偏负.NGA-West2四个模型的PGA事件内残差的空间分布特征相似,其最大正值和最大负值分布区域的震源-场地方位角约为-90°和90°,与主破裂断层方向垂直,所处地势较为平坦且台站场地V_S30相对较大.NGA-West2四个模型总体上会较大地高估鲁甸地震整个断层距范围内各个周期尤...     

Freestanding block overturning fragilities: Numerical simulation and experimental validation

The overturning fragilities of symmetric and asymmetric freestanding blocks, ranging in height from 0.54 to 3.6 m and with height‐to‐width ratios ranging from 2.1 to 6.6, are determined numerically. A probabilistic formulation regularizes the overturning responses when exposed to earthquake‐like random‐vibration waveforms. The peak amplitude of the forcing excitation (peak ground acceleration or PGA) is parameterized as a function of the block size, block shape, overturning probability, and either the PGA normalized peak ground velocity (PGV/PGA), spectral acceleration at 1 s (S_a(1)/PGA), or spectral acceleration at 2 s (S_a(2)/PGA). These later intensity measures are correlated with the duration of the predominant acceleration pulse. The overturning fragilities are compared with shake table experiments using blocks ranging in height from ～0.2 to 1.2 m and with height‐to‐width ratios ranging from ～2 to 10. Excitations utilized in the shake table experiments include recordings of the 1979 Imperial Valley, 1985 Michoacan, 1999 Duzce, 1999 Chi‐Chi, and 2002 Denali Earthquakes along with synthetic waveforms. The overturning fragilities accurately represent the overturning responses of blocks with simple basal contact conditions. Objects with multiple rocking points, such as precariously balanced rocks, are more fragile than predicted. Nondestructive tilting tests are used to account for blocks with complex basal contact conditions, demonstrating that these blocks overturn similarly to more slender blocks with simple contact conditions. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulation of strong earthquake characteristics of a scenario earthquake (MS7.5) based on the enlightenment of 2022 MS6.9 earthquake in Menyuan

The Menyuan area is an important transportation hub in the Hexi Corridor. The Menyuan M_S6.9 earthquake that occurred on January 8, 2022 had a major impact on the local infrastructure and transportation of this region. Due to the high possibility of similar strong earthquakes occurring in this area in the future, preliminary assessment of the seismic intensity characteristics of destructive earthquakes in this region is essential for effective disaster control. This paper uses the empirical Green′s function (EGF) method as a numerical simulation tool to predict the ground motion intensity of Datong Autonomous County under the action of the scenario earthquake (M_S7.5). Seismic records of aftershocks of the 2016 Menyuan M_S6.4 earthquake were used as Green’s functions for this simulation. The uncertainties associated with various source parameters were considered, and 36 possible earthquake scenarios were simulated to obtain 72 sets of horizontal ground motions in Datong County. The obtained peak ground acceleration (PGA) vs. time histories of the horizontal ground motion were screened using the attenuation relationships provided by the fifth-edition of China's Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zoning Map and the NGA-West2 dataset. Ultimately, 32 possible acceleration-time histories were selected for further analysis. The screened PGA values ranged from 78.8 to 153 cm/s². The uncertainty associated with the initial rupture point was found to greatly affect the results of the earthquake simulation. The average acceleration spectrum of the selected acceleration-time history exceeded the expected spectrum of a intermediate earthquake, which means that buildings in Datong County might sustain some damage should the scenario earthquake occur. This research can provide reliable ground motion input for urban earthquake damage simulation and seismic design in Datong County. Growing the dataset of small earthquakes recorded in this region will facilitate the large-scale simulation of ground motions under different earthquake scenarios.     

Design Earthquakes in the U.K.

Three sites in the UK are taken, representative of low, medium and high hazard levels (by UK standards). For each site, the hazard value at 10⁻⁴ annual probability is computed using a generic seismic source model, and a variety of ground motion parameters: peak ground acceleration (PGA), spectral acceleration at 10 Hz and 1 Hz, and intensity. Disaggregation is used to determine the nature of the earthquakes most likely to generate these hazard values. It is found (as might be expected) that the populations are quite different according to which ground motion parameter is used. When PGA is used, the result is a rather flat magnitude distribution with a tendency to low magnitude events (\le 4.5 ML) which are probably not really hazardous. Hazard-consistent scenario earthquakes computed using intensity are found to be in the range 5.8–5.9 ML, which is more in accord with the type of earthquake that one expects to be a worst-case event in the UK. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.