Thrusts and Prospects on Understanding and Predicting Asian Monsoon Climate

Development of monsoon climate prediction through integrated research efforts to improve our understanding of monsoon variability and predictability is a primary goal of the Asian Monsoon Years （200-2011） and International Monsoon Study under the leadership of the World Climate Research Programme. The present paper reviews recent progress in Asian monsoon research focusing on （1） understanding and modeling of the monsoon variability, （2） determining the sources and limits of predictability, and （3） assessing the current status of climate prediction, with emphasis on the weekly to interannual time scales. Particular attention is paid to identify scientific issues and thrust areas, as well as potential directions to move forward in an attempt to stimulate future research to advance our understanding of monsoon climate dynamics and improve our capability to forecast Asian monsoon climate variation.     

Economic drivers of migration and climate change in LDCs

Environmental migration is a topic which has given rise to widespread debate and gloomy predictions about the state of the world in 2050, but where rigorous research and empirical evidence are unfortunately in short supply. In this paper, we review the existing research on and empirical evidence of how climate change and climate variability in Less Developed Countries (LDCs) affects two main drivers of migration identified by migration models in the economic literature, namely income level differentials between origin and destination areas and income variability in origin areas, and how they in turn affect migration. We find that there are serious gaps in both the economic and the environmental literature that render it impossible to make sound and robust predictions of how climate change and increased climate variability will affect the economic migration drivers, and of how these in turn may change existing migration patterns. There are some empirical indications that income differentials may increase due to lower income levels in the origin areas of LDCs, but virtually no evidence exists of the effects of climate change or increased climate variability on income variability. Furthermore, although a negative relationship between migration and rainfall has been established by many researchers, there is only very limited evidence as to what drives it. A clearer picture of the driving force behind the link between rainfall and migration would greatly benefit policymaking in this area.     

人类活动对气候影响的研究Ⅱ.对东亚和中国气候变化的影响

系统总结和介绍了20世纪90年代以来作者所开展的有关人类活动对东亚和中国气候影响的一系列研究活动.其中包括温室气体辐射强迫及其气候效应,大气微量气体的全球增温潜能,对流层和平流层气溶胶的辐射气候效应,气候系统外部因子对中国气候影响的总体评估,人类活动对中国和东亚地区未来气候变化的影响,以及20世纪和21世纪东亚及中国的气候变化.同时给出了一系列研究成果,这些研究成果对于正确认识和准确预测东亚地区以及中国气候变化具有十分重要的意义.     

Bridging science and community knowledge? The complicating role of natural variability in perceptions of climate change

Although the spatial and temporal scales on which climate varies is a prominent aspect of climate research in the natural sciences, its treatment in the social sciences remains relatively underdeveloped. The result is limited understanding of the public's capacity to perceive climate variability as distinct from change, and uncertainty surrounding how and when to best communicate information on variability/change. Ignoring variability in favour of change-focused analyses and language risks significant misrepresentation of public perception and knowledge, and precludes detailed synthesis of data from the social and natural sciences. An example is presented based on a regional comparison of variability-dominated climate observations and change-focused survey data, collected in western Newfoundland (Canada). This region experiences pronounced, slow-varying natural variability, which acted to obscure broader climate trends through the 1980s and 1990s; since the late 1990s, the same variability has amplified apparent change. While survey results confirm residents perceive regional climate change, it is not clear whether respondents distinguish variability from change. This presents uncertainty in the best approach to climate science communication in this region, and raises concern that subsequent variability-driven transient cooling will erode public support for climate action. Parallels are drawn between these regional concerns and similar uncertainty surrounding treatment of variability in discussion of global temperature trends, highlighting variability perception as a significant gap in human dimensions of climate change research.     

Research in China on Climate and its variability

Summary The research program Dynamical Climatology and the Theory of Short-Term Climate Prediction supported by the State Committee of Sciences and Technology is introduced. Diagnosis studies on climate variability are summarised. These include the studies on the variability of sea-surface temperature (SST) and its relationship with atmospheric anomalies, on monsoon and seasonal change, and on lowfrequency atmospheric variability.Numerical simulation and model development for climate research, particularly those activities and achievements at LASG, are reported. These include the development and simulation of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), oceanic general circulation models (OGCMs), and atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). The ongoing activities concerning the development of climate system model is also presented.With 18 Figures     

ENSO对中国冬季天气尺度气温变率的影响及可能机理

基于1960—2017年中国国家气象信息中心整编的753站逐日平均温度资料、美国国家海洋大气中心（NOAA）重建的逐月海表温度资料以及美国国家环境预测中心/国家大气研究中心（NCEP/NCAR）提供的再分析大气环流资料,分析了ENSO对中国冬季天气尺度气温变率的影响。结果表明,ENSO与中国东部大部分地区的冬季天气尺度气温变率呈显著正相关,即厄尔尼诺年冬季,中国气温波动幅度增大,天气尺度气温变率明显较强;而拉尼娜年冬季,气温变化相对平稳,天气尺度温度变率较小。进一步研究发现,厄尔尼诺事件加强了冬季欧亚大陆中高纬度地区的经向温度梯度,根据热成风原理,局地大气斜压性增强,西伯利亚地区的风暴活动和下游东亚地区大气环流的天气尺度变异也随之加强,因而有利于中国大部分地区天气尺度温度变率的增大。拉尼娜年冬季,异常情况与之大致相反。      

国际上年代际到世纪时间尺度气候变化的研究

系统介绍国际上关于年代际和世纪时间尺度气候变化的最新研究,并就其主要科学问题进行了概括,以促进中国在这个领域的进步.     

几年来我国气候年际变异和短期气候预测研究的一些新成果

为了热烈庆祝中国科学院大气物理研究所成立80周年(1928～2008年),作者谨就五年来中国科学院大气物理研究所的科学家们完成的关于我国气候变异和气候预测方面的研究工作若干新成果作一些非常概要性的介绍,个中也包含一点所外科学家的工作。不周和不当之处只有请读者海涵和批评指正了。本文介绍的主要进展有三个方面:关于我国气候年际变异的研究、ENSO预测研究和数值气候预测研究。     

气候变化影响与适应研究中的若干问题

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平流层大气动力学及其与对流层大气相互作用的研究:进展与问题

本文综述了近年来关于平流层大气动力学及其与对流层大气相互作用动力过程的研究进展,特别是回顾了近年来关于平流层大气环流和行星波动力学、热带平流层大气波动及其与基本气流相互作用、平流层大气环流变异对对流层环流和气候变异的影响及其动力过程、平流层大气数值模拟以及在全球变暖背景下平流层大气的长期演变趋势预估等的研究进展。最近的研究揭示了大气准定常行星波传播波导的振荡现象、重力波在热带平流层准两年振荡和全球物质输送中的作用、平流层长期的变冷趋势变化、平流层在对流层天气和气候变化中的作用等现象,表明了平流层大气动力学研究的重要性。平流层大气动力学的深入研究,以及对数值模式中平流层模拟性能的提高,最终都会推动整个大气科学和气候变化研究的进一步发展。     

Adaptation in Canadian Agriculture to Climatic Variability and Change

The effects of climatic variability and change on Canadian agriculture have become an important research field since the early 1980s. In this paper, we seek to synthesize this research, focusing on agricultural adaptation, a purposeful proactive or reactive response to changes associated with climate, and influenced by many factors. A distinctive feature of methods used in research on adaptation in Canadian agriculture is the focus on the important role of human agency. Many individual farmers perceive they are well adapted to climate, because of their extensive 'technological' tool-kit, giving them confidence in dealing with climatic change. In many regions, little concern is expressed over climatic change, except where there are particular types of climatic vulnerability. Farmers respond to biophysical factors, including climate, as they interact with a complex of human factors. Several of these, notably institutional and political ones, have tended to diminish the farm-level risks stemming from climatic variability and change, but may well increase the long term vulnerability of Canadian agriculture. Notwithstanding the technological and management adaptation measures available to producers, Canadian agriculture remains vulnerable to climatic variability and to climate change.     

中国气候预测研究与业务发展的回顾

天气预报是指一周内至两周时间尺度的气象预报,而月季及以上时间尺度的预报则属于气候预测范畴。中国的气候预测起步很早,无论在研究工作中还是在业务应用上都取得了显著成就。文中扼要回顾了这些研究和业务发展成就,重点包括:对于季风和梅雨、寒潮的早期认知和后期研究发现、早期气候预测业务发展概况、动力气候预测的早期探索、动力-统计气候预测方法的研制和应用、气候预测模式的发展以及初始化和多模式集合预测、东亚气候系统变异的全方位探索、气候预测范畴的不断拓展和气候预测研究的不断创新。也对未来气候预测研究和业务发展提出了几个重大挑战性课题,涉及不同时间尺度气候变异过程之间的相互作用、季节内至年代际气候预测、气候系统模式及初始化、动力-统计相结合的气候预测方法等方面。      

关于年代际气候变化可能机制的研究

年代际气候变化作为年际和月季气候变化的重要背景,往往影响着年际和月季时间尺度的气候及特征。随着科学的发展进步和社会需求的提高,年代际气候变化已成为人们关注的重要问题。作为气候动力学和气候预测研究的重要内容之一,年代际气候变化及其动力学机制的研究在国内外都在蓬勃开展,并取得了不少的成果。本文除简要介绍了中国气候的年代际变化特征,将着重就年代际气候变化的可能机制作一个系统的综合性讨论,内容主要包括全球主要海温变化模态的影响、气候系统相互关系年代际变化的影响、大气行星尺度系统年代际变化的影响,以及太阳活动及火山爆发的影响等。大家知道,年代际气候变化研究十分重要,但也可以看到年代际气候变化的动力学机制却十分复杂,不少问题还没有搞的十分清楚,需要加大力量进行深入研究;我们相信,深入的研究结果必将对年代际气候变化的预测提供可靠的科学依据,进而推动年代际气候变化的业务预测及其能力的提高。     

East Asian,Indochina and Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon - An update

This review provides a summary of the major research progress in the variability of East Asian, Indochina and Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon. Time scales of the reviewed phenomena range from diurnal to interannual and interdecadal. Research results published in the past decades are the major sources for this review.     

Characterizing the zonally asymmetric component of the SH circulation

Much research concerning the Southern Hemisphere (SH) zonally asymmetric circulation has focused on the Pacific-South American mode (PSA) or the major zonal waves. However, these large-scale decompositions may mask important local variability. In this paper the month-to-month variability explained by the zonal waves 1 and 3 is examined, and an alternative representation of the SH circulation is presented based on two quasi-stationary anticyclones in the sub-Antarctic western hemisphere. These anticyclones are related to the zonal waves, but features of their variability are masked by the zonal wave decomposition; in particular, the anticyclones’ strengths are not positively covariant. They are also compared with the leading Principal Components of the SH atmosphere. We show that they capture variance independent of the Southern Annular Mode. Additionally, they explain a generally greater fraction of the variability than the PSA, and in a manner that also includes information regarding spatial variability. These results have implications for analysis of the atmospheric-forcing of western Antarctic climate.     

近10 a来祁连山地区气候及水资源研究现状

回顾了近10 a来对祁连山气候及其相关研究的主要成果,发现以前研究主要集中在气候变化及水资源方面。气候变化研究主要是古气候及近代气候的年际变化;水资源研究,则在陆地水资源方面的成果最多。近几年空中水资源开发利用的研究逐渐受到重视,成果日益增多,这将为西北干旱半干旱区解决水资源紧缺的状况提供一条可能的途径。     

Near-surface heating in the arabian sea during the pre-onset regime of MONEX-79

Summary During the pre-onset regime of MONEX-79, the short period (1–2 weeks) time series measurements of surface meteorological elements, vertical profiles of temperature (BT) and salinity (Nansen casts) made from 5 former USSR and 2 Indian research vessels were utilised to investigate the observed near-surface heating rates at a few selected locations in the Arabian Sea. The influence of local surface heat fluxes on the upper ocean heat content variability is explored. The associated synoptic scale variability in the thermohaline structure of the upper layers is presented. The efficacy of a simple Kraus-Turner type one dimensional numerical model in simulating the observed variability of mixed layer heating rates is evaluated.With 7 Figures     

Long-term regional changes in inter-annual precipitation variability in the Campania Region,Southern Italy

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Precipitation variability in space and time has been a focus of research over the past decades. The largest body of literature was essentially focused on...     

影响夏季西北太平洋副热带高压年际变率的关键海区及影响机制

西北太平洋副热带高压(西太副高)是影响东亚夏季气候的主要环流系统,其年际变率受热带多个海区的海-气相互作用过程的调控。为明确影响夏季西太副高的关键海区及其影响机制,在总结最近十余年来相关研究进展的基础上,归纳出影响夏季西太副高年际变率的5个关键海区,包括赤道中东太平洋、热带印度洋、副热带西北太平洋、海洋大陆附近海区以及热带大西洋。阐述了这5个关键海区的海温异常影响西太副高年际变率的机制,并探讨了5个关键海区海温异常的形成机制。围绕夏季西太副高的年际变率,回顾了当前气候模式的模拟和预测研究的现状。最后,提出了本领域亟待解决的关键科学问题,展望未来可能的研究热点。     

A Review of Decadal／Interdecadal Climate Variation Studies in China

Decadal/interdecadal climate variability is an important element in the CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) and has received much attention in the world. Many studies in relation to interdecadal variation have also been completed by Chinese scientists in recent years. In this paper, an introduction in outline for interdecadal climate variation research in China is presented. The content includes the features of interdecadal climate variability in China, global warming and interdecadal temperature variability,the NAO (the North Atlantic Oscillation)/NPO (the North Pacific Oscillation) and interdecadal climate variation in China, the interdecadal variation of the East Asian monsoon, the interdecadal mode of SSTA(Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly) in the North Pacific and its climate impact, and abrupt change feature of the climate.