Nonparametric Geostatistical Simulation of Subsurface Facies: Tools for Validating the Reproduction of,and Uncertainty in,Facies Geometry

Delineation of facies in the subsurface and quantification of uncertainty in their boundaries are significant steps in mineral resource evaluation and reservoir modeling, which impact downstream analyses of a mining or petroleum project. This paper investigates the ability of nonparametric geostatistical simulation algorithms (sequential indicator, single normal equation and filter-based simulation) to construct realizations that reproduce some expected statistical and spatial features, namely facies proportions, boundary regularity, contact relationships and spatial correlation structure, as well as the expected fluctuations of these features across the realizations. The investigation is held through a synthetic case study and a real case study, in which a pluri-Gaussian model is considered as the reference for comparing the simulation results. Sequential indicator simulation and single normal equation simulation based on over-restricted neighborhood implementations yield the poorest results, followed by filter-based simulation, whereas single normal equation simulation with a large neighborhood implementation provides results that are closest to the reference pluri-Gaussian model. However, some biases and inaccurate fluctuations in the realization statistics (facies proportions, indicator direct and cross-variograms) still arise, which can be explained by the use of a single finite-size training image to construct the realizations.

     

A 1500-year record of climatic and environmental change in ElkLake, Minnesota III: measures of past primary productivity

Diatom analysis of a varved sediment core from Elk Lake, Minnesotadocuments important natural and human-caused shifts in primary productivity atdecadal scales for the past 1500 years. Interpretations from a perspective ofplanktic diatom seasonal dynamics and from total phosphorus inferences based ona 111-lake training set of freshwater Canadian lakes reveal a major change tomore productive environments after 1000 years ago probably caused by earlierice-out and stronger, longer periods of lake circulation during the spring.European impacts in the region, principally logging in the Elk Lake drainage,during the past 100 years increased nutrient fluxes and turbulence during theopen water season to promote blooms of Aulacoseiraambigua. High resolution (semi-decadal) diatom analyses suggestsunspot cycle periodicities that may reflect short-term changes in thecharacter of irradiance and (or) sun-climate interactions. Total epilimneticphosphorus inferences from the Canadian training set applied to the Elk Lakediatom record document both long-term and short-term variations inproductivity and reconstruct past phosphorus values consistent with somepresent-day measured values at Elk Lake. The Elk Lake study underscores theneed for neolimnological monitoring of both training set and target lakes aswell as for the application of a multiple proxy protocol to documentpaleo-productivity that approaches neolimnological resolution.     

Indicators of vegetation productivity under a changing climate in British Columbia,Canada

Understanding the relationship between vegetation and climate is essential for predicting the impact of climate change on broad-scale landscape processes. Utilizing vegetation indicators derived from remotely sensed imagery, we present an approach to forecast shifts in the future distribution of vegetation. Remotely sensed metrics representing cumulative greenness, seasonality, and minimum cover have successfully been linked to species distributions over broad spatial scales. In this paper we developed models between a historical time series of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite imagery from 1987 to 2007 at 1 km spatial resolution with corresponding climate data using regression tree modeling approaches. We then applied these models to three climate change scenarios produced by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCCma) to predict and map productivity indices in 2065. Our results indicated that warming may lead to increased cumulative greenness in northern British Columbia and seasonality in vegetation is expected to decrease for higher elevations, while levels of minimum cover increase. The Coast Mountains of the Pacific Maritime region and high elevation edge habitats across British Columbia were forecasted to experience the greatest amount of change. Our approach provides resource managers with information to mitigate and adapt to future habitat dynamics. Forecasting vegetation productivity levels presents a novel approach for understanding the future implications of climate change on broad scale spatial patterns of vegetation.     

科尔沁沙地植物多样性对生产力的影响及分布格局

采用种丰富度和以Shannon-Wiener指数为计算方法的功能多样性和组成多样性为指标,探讨了植物多样性对科尔沁沙地草场生产力的影响以及其分布格局特征。结果表明,科尔沁沙地植被不同的物种多样性指数对系统生产力的影响以组成多样性最大,功能多样性次之,植物种丰富度最小。在小尺度上,组成多样性只存在一种格局且具有分形结构,其格局对干扰过程反应不明显;功能多样性有多种格局存在,对多种干扰过程反应敏感。从提高沙地草场生产力和增强系统的稳定性角度出发,草场改良的依据应建立在种的引进和引进种所产生的组成多样性上。     

The Australian clothing industry: competition,productivity and scale

There has been substantial change in the Australian clothing industry over the last 20 years. Forms of restructuring in the industry include both the re‐emergence of outworking and subcontracting, and locational changes (decline in inner metropolitan areas, perhaps offset by outworking, but relative growth in other regions). The total turnover has slightly increased whereas employment has declined sharply. The changes in employment and output have led to major growth in labour productivity and in capital intensity. Yet labour productivity growth may not be the outcome of significant technical change: productivity growth is sometimes the result of plant closure; the formal social relations of outworking may permit plants to capture some of the profits produced by subcontractors. In any event, there is no evidence of improvements in total factor productivity in the clothing industry. Despite popular conceptions, the clothing industry has been able to achieve high rates of profit. Thus, the prices charged by the clothing industry have exceeded those needed to earn an average rate of return. But that rate of profit produces only small quantities of profit in its typical small plants. The general problem of the clothing industry is the very small scale of the most plants, resulting in lack of income for enterprises and of funds for new investment. The issue, then, is more complex than simply costs and international competition: it is more a question of investment dynamics and scale.     

The potential and actual primary productivity of southern Ontario's agro-ecosystem

There is a generally accepted assumption that the primary productivity of the natural vegetation cover of an area is the most appropriate indicator of the level of primary productivity that may be attained by agricultural systems in the same area. However, this relationship is not clearly understood. This paper assesses the potential rate of primary productivity for southern Ontario and compares these results with the equivalent values for the agro-ecosystems. Analysis is conducted at the level of the county. Climatically determined potential (natural) primary productivity values are adjusted by a soil performance index yielding a range of values from 986 g m^?2 y^?1 to 44 g m^?2 y^?1. The actual primary productivity for agriculture ranges from 3593 g m^?2 y^?1 to 515 g m^?2 y^?1. Over southern Ontario actual (agricultural) productivity exceeds potential (natural) productivity by an average of 2.6. The variations about this mean are examined. The results indicate where, and by which agricultural processes, the humanized landscape can improve the organic resource base.     

Geochemical and organic petrological characterization of the organic matter of lacustrine Eocene oil shales (Prinz von Hessen,Germany): reconstruction of the depositional environment

Optical and geochemical techniques were applied to sedimentary organic matter from the profundal area of the Eocene Lake Prinz von Hessen, which formed in a pull-apart basin on the Sprendlinger Horst, near Darmstadt, Germany. Variations in total sulphur content (S tot) and total organic carbon content (TOC), hydrogen index (HI), oxygen index (OI) and ¹³C values of the organic matter were used to reconstruct the lakes filling history. Following an initial rapid deepening phase, open lake conditions developed with HI reaching more than 500 mg HC/g TOC and TOC values up to 40%. The productivity of the lake was probably high and organic matter preservation was enhanced by a stratified water column. As the lake began to fill with sediment and became shallower, TOC and HI values declined, as the lake water was better oxygenated and preservation conditions declined. ¹³C values between –31 and –27 are controlled by the mixing of aquatic (algae and microbial mats) and terrigenous organic matter (wood, spores, pollen and cuticles). Following a rapid drop in lake level, shallow lake conditions alternated with swamp deposits (lignites) in the basin center. The organic matter preserved during this stage is strictly terrigenous in nature and experienced oxic degradation (HI 100 mg HC/g TOC). ¹³C values between –26 and –24 are typical for Eocene terrigenous matter. The inferred lake level fluctuations are interpreted to have been controlled by tectonic as well as climatic processes.     

A modified numerical model for moisture-salt transport in unsaturated sandy soil under evaporation

Soil salinization, caused by salt migration and accumulation underneath the soil surface, will corrode structures. To analyze the moisture-salt migration and salt precipitation in soil under evaporation conditions, a mathematical model consisting of a series of theoretical equations is briefly presented. The filling effect of precipitated salts on tortuosity factor and evaporation rate are taken into account in relevant equations. Besides, a transition equation to link the solute transport equation before and after salt precipitation is proposed. Meanwhile, a new relative humidity equation deduced from Pitzer ions model is used to modify the vapor transport flux equation. The results show that the calculated values are in good agreement with the published experimental data, especially for the simulation of volume water content and evaporation rate of Toyoura sand, which confirm the reliability and applicability of the proposed model.     

中国人口分布的合理性研究

本文在人口分布合理性判定标准和指标讨论的基础上,通过对自然环境与人口分布相互关系的定性研究,和综合反映自然条件、经济水平的土地食物生产力与人口分布的定量分析,论证了我国东密西疏人口不均衡分布的内在合理性。     

鲁西北地区土地现实生产力调查与估算

以鲁西北地区县级1∶5万土壤类型图图斑作为基础评价单元,根据农户现有的投入水平,采用“调查法”模拟分析农业土地资源的现实生产力,并与统计资料和“机制法”模型模拟结果进行对比分析。研究结果表明,现实投入水平下鲁西北地区夏玉米单产略高于冬小麦单产,对冬小麦的投入从整体上来看相当于中等投入,但又存在着区域差异。对夏玉米的投入具有南北向的差异,由南到北投入水平逐渐降低。鲁西北地区土地现实生产力以宁津县最高,庆云县最低,与“机制法”模型模拟结果比较,各县市之间土地生产潜力差距较大。由此可以说明,各县市土壤质量本身对土地年生产力的大小起着重要作用,进一步证明“调查法”能充分反映土壤在土地综合性质中的主要作用。     

空间分辨率对总初级生产力模拟结果差异的影响

利用模型分析气候变化对陆地生态系统功能的影响,是当前全球变化生态学的研究热点,然而模型模拟不确定性来源之一就是空间异质性的问题。空间异质性是尺度的函数,基于气象和遥感数据驱动的生态系统过程模型（BEPS模型）,分别模拟2003-2005年中国生态系统通量观测与研究网络（ChinaFLUX）长白山站、千烟洲站、海北站及当雄站在1 km和8 km空间分辨率下的总初级生产力（GPP）的时间动态变化,并结合土地覆盖类型及叶面积指数(LAI)的差异,探讨两种空间分辨率输入数据对GPP模拟结果的影响。结果表明：① 差异性主要是由于8 km范围内混合像元导致LAI的不同,4个站点月均差异值分别为0.85、1.60、0.13及0.04;② 两种空间分辨率均能较好地反映各站点GPP的季节动态变化,与GPP观测值的相关性R²为0.79~0.97 (1 km)、0.69~0.97(8 km),月均差异值为11.46~29.65 gC/m²/month (1 km)、11.87~24.81 gC/m²/month (8 km);③ 4个通量站点在两种空间分辨率下的GPP月均差异值分别为14.43,12.05,4.79,3.22 gC/m²/month,不同空间分辨率的模拟结果在森林站的差异大于草地站,且生长季的差异大于非生长季。因此,模型在模拟大尺度、长时间序列GPP时,为了提高模型模拟效率,适度降低空间分辨率是可行的,但应尽量减小低空间分辨率对于森林生态系统以及生长季GPP模拟上的误差。     

根系水分胁迫响应函数对土壤水及作物生长动态和产量模拟影响的研究

为探究根系水分胁迫响应函数对农田水分动态及产量模拟的影响,基于Richards方程和PS123作物生长模型分别进行了土壤水分动态和小麦产量的模拟,对比分析了VG(S型曲线)、MP(凹凸型曲线)及LS(S型曲线)3种水分胁迫响应函数.采用山西省霍泉站(3 a)及潇河站(2 a)的试验资料对模型中的土壤水力特征参数、水分胁...     

气候变化对太行山土壤水分及植被的影响

在太行山低山区将自然植被移入蒸渗仪,观察当降水分别为常年平均降水量的80%、90%、100%、110%和120%等5种处理条件下,植被生产力和土壤的不同反映。研究发现:受验植被对降水反映敏感,降水每增加10%,植被生产力增加15%左右,预示未来全球变化导致的降水变化会对太行山低山区植被产生影响。同时在利用野外实验结果对WAVES模型进行验证的基础上,模拟了不同温度和降水变化情景下,土壤水分的可能变化趋势。结果表明:增温和减少降水对土壤水分负作用明显,尽管降水增加可改善土壤的水分供应状况,但降水增加10%对土壤水分的正面影响,大体被3 oC的增温抵消。由于模型模拟中采用的是与目前没有改变降水条件的实验相同的植被(LAI),而植被生长在太行山这一半湿润、半干旱地区又受土壤水分控制,因而估计未来气候变化情景下的植被变化与土壤水分的变化趋势相似。     

新疆草地气候生产潜力变化特征及对气候响应的预测研究

基于新疆地区52个气象站点1959-2008年逐月气温、降水资料,利用Miami模型和Thornthwaite Memorial模型、线性趋势线、ArcGIS反距离权重插值等方法,对新疆草地生产潜力的时空变化特征进行分析。结果表明,近50 a来,新疆草地温度、降水、蒸散生产潜力均表现为显著增加,且四季和生长季各生产潜力也呈线性增加,夏季和生长季增幅最大,其次,草地生产潜力以及增幅均表现为北疆高于南疆,基本为由南向北递增,并和多年平均降水量变化一致。其中,水分条件是影响新疆草地生产潜力的主导因素。根据二元一次线性回归方程计算得出,年平均气温每升高/降低1 ℃,草地的年气候生产力增加/减少17.309 kg·hm-2·a-1,年降水量每增加/减少1 mm,草地的年气候生产力增加/减少24.392 kg·hm-2·a-1。     

Recent anthropogenic impact in ancient Lake Ohrid (Macedonia/Albania): a palaeolimnological approach

Ancient lakes, which are important centres of biodiversity and endemism, are threatened by a wide variety of human impacts. To assess environmental impact on ancient Lake Ohrid we have taken short sediment cores from two contrasting site locations, comprising a site of urban pollution and an apparently pristine area. Recent impacts on water quality and ecology were assessed using sediment, geochemical, ostracode, and diatom data derived from analysis of two ²¹⁰Pb-dated sediment cores spanning the period from 1918 to 2009. According to the index of geoaccumulation, sediments were often moderately contaminated with As. Fe and Ni concentrations often exceeded reported maximum limits above which harmful effects on sediment-dwelling organisms are expected. Productivity in the (pristine) south-eastern part of Lake Ohrid (Sveti Naum) is generally lower than in the north, probably due to the strong influence of spring discharge. Low ostracode and diatom concentrations, low abundance of the epilimnetic diatom Cyclotella ocellata, and low values of TOC and TIC indicate a lower productivity from the early 1920s to the late 1980s. Since the mid 1970s, increased relative abundance of C. ocellata and increasing diatom concentration indicate increasing productivity in the south-eastern part. Rising numbers of ostracode valves and higher TIC and TOC contents in both sediment cores indicate an increase in productivity during the late 1980s. A slight increase in productivity near Sveti Naum continued from the early 1990s until 2009, witnessed by rising TC, TIC, and TOC content and a generally high number of ostracode valves and ostracode diversity. The area near the City of Struga (site of urban pollution) is also characterized by rising TOC and TIC contents and, furthermore, by increasing Cu, Fe, Pb, and Zn concentrations since the early 1990s. The recent reduction in the number of ostracode valves and ostracode diversity is probably caused by a higher heavy metal load into the lake. This suggests that living conditions for the endemic species in Lake Ohrid have become less favourable in the northern part of the lake, which might threaten the unique flora and fauna of Lake Ohrid.     

蒸发条件下一维垂向非饱和土壤水分运动的数值模拟——以额济纳荒漠河岸胡杨林为例

根据额济纳荒漠河岸胡杨林的实际土壤层结构,建立了带有根系吸水项的垂向一维土壤水分非饱和运动基本方程,并采用有限差分法对蒸发条件下土壤水分运动方程进行离散化,编制了用于该模型数值模拟的计算程序。最后通过数值模拟对模型进行验证,结果表明,模拟值与实测值能够较好吻合,模拟精度在92%~98%之间,能较好地反映土壤水分的运动规律,为研究土壤-植被-大气连续体（SPAC）水分运移提供理论基础。     

东北温带旱作农业主要作物生产潜力及资源利用效率评价——以黑龙江海伦市为例

将作物生产潜力模型(PS123模型)与常规方法相结合,对1999~2001年海伦市玉米、大豆、小麦作物生产潜力进行计算;选取产量损失量、资源满足率和资源组合利用率,定量评价资源利用效率,寻找影响资源集约高效利用的限制性因子及其定量制约程度。结果显示,自然资源中温度对于产量的限制最大,其次为水分和土壤,如果把光温生产潜力作为目标产量,玉米、大豆、小麦的光温生产潜力分别为11998、7068、8813 kg/hm²,资源利用率分别为51.0%、29.0%、20.2%,海伦市粮食生产仍有较大潜力。在特定自然资源状况下,海伦市的社会经济状况是限制潜力实现的重要因素,在实地调查基础上,本文提出了提高该市作物产量的主要措施。     

EVALUATION OF MODEL PERFORMANCE WHEN THE OBSERVED DATA ARE SUBJECT TO ERROR

In many cases of model evaluation in physical geography, the observed data to which model predictions are compared may not be error free. This paper addresses the effect of observational errors on the mean squared error, the mean bias error and the mean absolute deviation through the derivation of a statistical framework and Monte Carlo simulation. The effect of bias in the observed values may either decrease or increase the expected values of the mean squared error and mean bias error, depending on whether model and observational biases have the same or opposite signs, respectively. Random errors in observed data tend to inflate the mean squared error and the mean absolute deviation, and also increase the variability of all the error indices considered here. The statistical framework is applied to a real example, in which sampling variability of the observed data appears to account for most of the difference between observed and predicted values. Examination of scaled differences between modelled and observed values, where the differences are divided by the estimated standard errors of the observed values, is suggested as a diagnostic tool for determining whether random observational errors are significant.     

The need to correct for the Suess effect in the application of δ<Superscript>13</Superscript>C in sediment of autotrophic Lake Tanganyika,as a productivity proxy in the Anthropocene

The change in dissolved inorganic δ¹³C in the ocean resulting from the change in δ¹³C in atmospheric CO₂ owing to anthropogenic activities (the Suess effect) is well known. The need to correct for the Suess effect when applying δ¹³C in organic matter in lacustrine sediment deposited during the anthropocene as a productivity proxy, is widely although not universally acknowledged. This paper reviews conceptions about the Suess effect in lacustrine δ¹³C_org and methods to adjust for the Suess effect when δ¹³C_org is used to infer recent changes in aquatic productivity. Lake Tanganyika is used as an example to illustrate the necessity of the correction. When the Suess effect is not considered, interpretations of sediment core data can result that are opposite to those achieved with the correction applied, as is here shown in Lake Tanganyika and in other lakes. A new method to correct for the Suess effect is provided which has the advantage of being applicable to data for a larger period (1700–2000) than methods currently available. In addition, Lake Tanganyika is shown to be a net sink for CO₂.     

Selection of Optimal Thresholds for Estimation and Simulation Based on Indicator Values of Highly Skewed Distributions of Ore Data

This study strives to outline a geostatistics model for estimation and simulation of the Qolqoleh gold ore deposit located in Saqqez, NW of Iran. Considering that this gold deposit contains high-grade values, accurate evaluation of such values is of high importance, and therefore different methods based on indicator values, such as full indicator kriging (FIK) and sequential indicator simulation (SIS), have been employed to improve the accuracy of estimation and simulation of high-grade values. FIK and SIS cover the full range of grades based on several thresholds on the indicator data. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is typically used for selection of threshold values. Given the highly skewed distribution of gold grade and its intense fluctuations, the number of thresholds is increased using CDF, which in turn results in a whole lot of calculations. To reduce the volume of calculations, the number–size (N–S) fractal model has been used to select thresholds. From such a model, all optimal thresholds are chosen with respect to geology and the unnecessary thresholds are excluded from selection. Thus, a study of the selection of optimal thresholds for estimation and simulation of a gold ore resource by means of FIK and SIS, respectively, based on thresholds selected using the N–S fractal model is presented. Finally, it is proved that results of these geostatistical methods based on thresholds selection from the N–S model appear to be better-positioned to explain ore grade variability compared to thresholds selected from the CDF and threshold selection from the N–S model is more effective for reducing the volume of required calculations.