SIMULATION OF A SERIES OF DAILY AREAL MEAN RAINFALLS FOR A BASIN USING RAINFALL OBSERVATIONS AT A REFERENCE STATION LOCATED OUTSIDE THE BASIN / Simulation d'une série de précipitations journalières moyennes spatiales sur un bassin,en utilisant les hauteurs pluviométriques observées à une station de référence située en dehors du bassin

Abstract

A mathematical model is built which enables daily estimates to be made of the areal mean rainfalls for a basin using rainfall observations at a reference station of the same climature* but which may be situated at some distance from the basin. The method consists of:

1. (1) determining the probabilities of the characteristic types of association between areal mean rainfalls of varying magnitude at the basin and rainfall events of various types at the reference station.

2. (2) establishing the conditional distributions of areal mean rainfalls at the basin.

3. (3) estimating the areal mean rainfalls at the basin (a) by the Monte Carlo method and (b) by accepting that the mean basin rainfalls and the reference station rainfall are, in their respective statistical distributions, fractiles of the same order.

Finally, the validity of the simulated series is checked by means of various tests.