Climate affects severity and altitudinal distribution of outbreaks in an eruptive bark beetle

Temperature warming and the increased frequency of climatic anomalies are expected to trigger bark beetle outbreaks with potential severe consequences on forest ecosystems. We characterized the combined effects of climatic factors and density-dependent feedbacks on forest damage caused by Ips typographus (L.), one of the most destructive pests of European spruce forests, and tested whether climate modified the interannual variation in the altitudinal outbreak range of the species. We analyzed a 16-year time-series from the European Alps of timber loss in Picea abies Karsten forests due to I. typographus attacks and used a discrete population model and an information theoretic approach to compare multiple competing hypotheses. The occurrence of dry summers combined with warm temperatures appeared as the main abiotic triggers of severity of outbreaks. We also found an endogenous negative feedback with a 2-year lag suggesting a potential important role of natural enemies. Forest damage per hectare averaged 7-fold higher where spruce was planted in sites warmer than those within its historical climatic range. Dry summers, but not temperature, was related to upward shifts in the altitudinal outbreak range. Considering the potential increased susceptibility of spruce forests to insect outbreaks due to climate change, there is growing value in mitigating these effects through sustainable forest management, which includes avoiding the promotion of spruce outside its historical climatic range.     

基于天气因素的我国登革热流行风险地图

全球变暖的大趋势和不断增加的输入病例被认为是登革热在中国重新出现而且流行范围不断扩大的原因。通过对一些登革热流行地区的天气因素进行分析,了解天气因素与登革热之间的关系。广州、福州和宁波的天气因素被用于交叉相关分析,根据天气和登革热疫情的时间关系,构建了我国登革热流行的气象风险地图。结果显示天气因素对登革热疫情都存在8～10周的延迟影响。我国登革热的高风险地区主要在华南和华东的沿海地区。华南地区经常暴发登革热,华东沿海地区的南部近年来也多次暴发登革热。虽然有些地区还没有登革热流行的记录,但应该加强对输入性病例的监测和管理,防止出现本地流行。     

Landscape-Scale Analysis of Interactions between Insect Defoliation and Forest Fire in Central Canada

Analysis of Ontario's historical records from 1941–1996 showed that spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.) caused whole tree mortality within 389×10³ km². This amounted to 9.2% of the annually cumulative area with moderate-severe defoliation. Large (>2 km²) fires were reported in approximately 65,000 km² and overlapped only 2.8% of the area of reported spruce budworm (SBW) caused tree mortality. Within the 417×10³ km² defoliated by SBW at least once in 1941–1996, the maximum total area recorded as defoliated in any year was over 20 times the maximal area burnt. In the 19,950 km² experiencing both wildfire and SBW defoliation, analysis of the spectra of time lags between the two disturbance types indicated that fires occurred 3–9 years after a SBW outbreak disproportionately often. This window of opportunity for wildfire varies geographically: it starts later after SBW outbreak and lasts longer in western than in eastern Ontario. In addition, 7.5% of the areas containing SBW killed trees were burnt in western compared to 4.8% in eastern Ontario. These geographical differences may result at least partly from slower decomposition of dead fuels in the drier climates of the western SBW belt compared to the eastern SBW belt. The implications for climatic change are discussed.     

Projecting future drought in Mediterranean forests: bias correction of climate models matters!

Global and regional climate models (GCM and RCM) are generally biased and cannot be used as forcing variables in ecological impact models without some form of prior bias correction. In this study, we investigated the influence of the bias correction method on drought projections in Mediterranean forests in southern France for the end of the twenty-first century (2071–2100). We used a water balance model with two different atmospheric climate forcings built from the same RCM simulations but using two different correction methods (quantile mapping or anomaly method). Drought, defined here as periods when vegetation functioning is affected by water deficit, was described in terms of intensity, duration and timing. Our results showed that the choice of the bias correction method had little effects on temperature and global radiation projections. However, although both methods led to similar predictions of precipitation amount, they induced strong differences in their temporal distribution, especially during summer. These differences were amplified when the climatic data were used to force the water balance model. On average, the choice of bias correction leads to 45 % uncertainty in the predicted anomalies in drought intensity along with discrepancies in the spatial pattern of the predicted changes and changes in the year-to-year variability in drought characteristics. We conclude that the choice of a bias correction method might have a significant impact on the projections of forest response to climate change.     

Challenges in the Application of Existing Process-Based Models to Predict the Effect of Climate Change on C Pools in Forest Ecosystems

Process-based models used to investigate forest ecosystem response to climate change were not necessarily developed to include the effect of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and temperature increases on physiological processes. Simulation of the impacts of climate change with such models may lead to questionable predictions. It is generally believed that significant shifts in the performance of black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill] B.S.P.) will occur under climate change. This species, which accounts for 64% of Ontario's coniferous growing stock and 80% of the annual allowable cut, represents important economic activity throughout the boreal forest region. Forest management planning requires relatively accurate productivity estimates. Thus, it is imperative to ensure that process-based models realistically predict the effect of climate change. In this study, CENTURY and FOREST-BGC models were calibrated for a productive, upland black spruce stand in northwestern Ontario. Even though both models predicted similar relative outcomes after 100 years of climate change, they disagreed on the impacts of temperature in combination with an increase in CO₂. Also, absolute amounts of carbon sequestered varied with climate change scenarios. Comparison of both models indicated that the representation of critical processes in these two forest ecosystem models is incomplete. For instance, the interactive effects of CO₂ and temperature increases on physiological processes at stand and soil levels are not well documented nor are they easily identifiable in the models. Their incorporation into models is therefore problematic. Practitioners must consequently be wary of assumptions about the inclusion of critical processes in models.     

Assessing community vulnerability: A study of the mountain pine beetle outbreak in British Columbia, Canada

Arguing that community-based assessments of vulnerability to climate change are congruent with the scale at which policy action takes place, this paper presents an assessment of vulnerability conducted in forest-based communities surrounded by a catastrophic outbreak of forest disease. Our assessment includes measures of several dimensions of vulnerability, developed using an interdisciplinary and participatory research process. We find that for some communities vulnerability represents a high level of economic risk, while for others risk is exacerbated by institutional limitations. We also find that community perceptions of risk and bio-physical assessments differ widely for communities anticipating future outbreaks of disease.     

Effects of climate change on grain maize yield potential in the european community

Grain maize yield in the main arable areas of the European Community (E.C.) was calculated with a simulation model, WOFOST, using historical weather data and average soil characteristics. The sensitivity of the model to individual weather variables was determined. Subsequent analyses were made using climate change scenarios with and without the direct effects of increased atmospheric CO₂. The impact of crop management (sowing date, irrigation and cultivar type) in a changed climate was also assessed. Scenario climate change generally results in larger grain yields for the northern E.C., similar or slightly smaller yields for the central E.C. and considerably smaller yields for the southern E.C. The various climate change scenarios used appear to give considerably different changes in grain yield, both for each location and for the E.C. as a whole. Management analyses show that for both current and scenario climates the largest grain yield will be attained by varieties with an early start of grain filling, that average irrigation requirements to attain potential grain yield in the E.C. will increase with climate change but will decrease with both increased CO₂ and climate change, and that sowing at both current and scenarios climate should occur as early as possible.The U.S. Government right to retain a nonexclusive, royalty-free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

Impacts of climate change on primary production and carbon sequestration of boreal Norway spruce forests: Finland as a model

The aim of this study was to estimate the potential impacts of climate change on the spatial patterns of primary production and net carbon sequestration in relation to water availability in Norway spruce (Picea abies) dominated forests throughout Finland (N 60°–N 70°). The Finnish climatic scenarios (FINADAPT) based on the A2 emission scenario were used. According to the results, the changing climate increases the ratio of evapotranspiration to precipitation in southern Finland, while it slightly decreases the ratio in northern Finland, with regionally lower and higher soil water content in the south and north respectively. During the early simulation period of 2000–2030, the primary production and net carbon sequestration are higher under the changing climate in southern Finland, due to a moderate increase in temperature and atmospheric CO₂. However, further elevated temperature and soil water stress reduces the primary production and net carbon sequestration from the middle period of 2030–2060 to the final period of 2060–2099, especially in the southernmost region. The opposite occurs in northern Finland, where the changing climate increases the primary production and net carbon sequestration over the 100-year simulation period due to higher water availability. The net carbon sequestration is probably further reduced by the stimulated ecosystem respiration (under climate warming) in southern Finland. The higher carbon loss of the ecosystem respiration probably also offset the increased primary production, resulting in the net carbon sequestration being less sensitive to the changing climate in northern Finland. Our findings suggest that future forest management should carefully consider the region-specific conditions of sites and adaptive practices to climate change for maintained or enhanced forest production and carbon sequestration.     

Modeling the Influence of Topographic Barriers on Treeline Advance at the Forest-Tundra Ecotone in Northwestern Alaska

The response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate warming has important implications to potential feedbacks to climate. The interactions between topography, climate, and disturbance could alter recruitment patterns to reduce or offset current predicted positive feedbacks to warming at high latitudes. In northern Alaska the Brooks Range poses a complex environmental and ecological barrier to species migration. We use a spatially explicit model (ALFRESCO) to simulate the transient response of subarctic vegetation to climatic warming in the Kobuk/Noatak River Valley (200 × 400 km) in northwest Alaska. The model simulations showed that a significantly warmer (+6 °C) summer climate would cause expansion of forest through the Brooks Range onto the currently treeless North Slope only after a period of 3000–4000 yr. Substantial forest establishment on the North Slope didnot occur until temperatures warmed 9 °C, and only following a 2000 yr time lag. The long time lags between change in climate and change in vegetation indicate current global change predictions greatly over-estimate the response of vegetation to a warming climate in Alaska. In all the simulations warming caused a steady increase in the proportion of early successional deciduous forest. This would reduce the magnitude of the predicted decrease in regional albedo and the positive feedback to climate warming. Simulation of spruce forest refugia on the North Slope showed forest could survive with only a 4 °C warming and would greatly reduce the time lag of forest expansion under warmer climates. Planting of spruce on the North Slope by humans could increase the likelihood of large-scale colonization of currently treeless tundra. Together, the long time lag and deciduous forest dominance would delay the predicted positive regional feedback of vegetation change to climatic warming. These simulated changes indicate the Brooks Range would significantly constrain regional forest expansion under a warming climate, with similar implications for other regions possessing major east-west oriented mountain ranges.     

Scaling Issues in Forest Succession Modelling

This paper reviews scaling issues in forest succession modelling, focusing on forest gap models. Two modes of scaling are distinguished: (1) implicit scaling, i.e. taking scale-dependent features into account while developing model equations, and (2) explicit scaling, i.e. using procedures that typically involve numerical simulation to scale up the response of a local model in space and/or time. Special attention is paid to spatial upscaling methods, and downscaling is covered with respect to deriving scenarios of climatic change to drive gap models in impact assessments. When examining the equations used to represent ecological processes in forest gap models, it becomes evident that implicit scaling is relevant, but has not always been fully taken into consideration. A categorization from the literature is used to distinguish four methods for explicit upscaling of ecological models in space: (1) Lumping, (2) Direct extrapolation, (3) Extrapolation by expected value, and (4) Explicit integration. Examples from gap model studies are used to elaborate the potential and limitations of these methods, showing that upscaling to areas as large as 3000 km² is possible, given that there are no significant disturbances such as fires or insect outbreaks at the landscape scale. Regarding temporal upscaling, we find that it is important to consider migrational lags, i.e. limited availability of propagules, if one wants to assess the transient behaviour of forests in a changing climate, specifically with respect to carbon storage and the associated feedbacks to the atmospheric CO₂ content. Regarding downscaling, the ecological effects of different climate scenarios for the year 2100 were compared at a range of sites in central Europe. The derivation of the scenarios is based on (1) imposing GCM grid-cell average changes of temperature and precipitation on the local weather records; (2) a qualitative downscaling technique applied by the IPCC for central and southern Europe; and (3) statistical downscaling relating large-scale circulation patterns to local weather records. Widely different forest compositions may be obtained depending on the local climate scenario, suggesting that the downscaling issue is quite important for assessments of the ecological impacts of climatic change on forests.     

Comparison of Characteristics Between the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Outbreaks in 2004 and 2008

The South China Sea summer monsoon is an important system affecting the weather and climate in China;its outbreak and evolution vary from year to year.Using the reanalysis data from the U.S.National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA),USA,we analyze the circulation pattern,precipitation distribution,convection,temperature,and humidity around the monsoon outbreaks in 2004 and 2008.Results show that the monsoon had a late onset in 2004 (May 19) but an early outbreak in 2008 (May 4).Prior to the monsoon outbreak in 2008,cross-equatorial flows in Somalia were weaker than in 2004,subtropical precipitation did not arrive in southern China as it did in 2004,and the strongest convection was located more southward than in 2004.The results also indicate that accumulated rainfall in the Indochina Peninsula was about 61% of that in 2004 during a period of 25 days leading up to the monsoon outbreak,causing differences in land surface processes and then different activity levels for the summer monsoon.Post-onset warm and humid conditions in 2008 (2004) maintained through the end of October (mid-September),while the summer monsoon lasted longer in 2008 than in 2004.     

A stochastic weather generator applied to hydrological models in climate impact analysis

Summary A pattern recognition methodology for estimating local climate variables such as regional precipitation and air temperature using local observation and scenario information provided by GCMs is presented. We have adopted a three step approach: (a) Feature information extraction of climate variables, where weather patterns are expanded by the Karhunen-Loeve (K-L) orthogonal functional series; (b) Grey associative clustering of the feature vectors; (3) Stochastic weather generation by a Monte Carlo simulation. The methods described in this paper were verified using the temperature and precipitation data set of Wuhan, Yangtze river basin and the Shun Tian catchment, Dongjiang River in China. The proposed method yields good stochastic simulations and also provides useful information on temporal or spatial downscaling and uncertainty.With 4 Figures     

Effect of climate change on regional precipitation in Lake Balaton watershed

Summary A methodology is developed and applied to the area of Lake Balaton and its drainage basin, a region of Western Hungary, to estimate the space-time distribution of daily precipitation under climate change. Lake Balaton is the largest lake in Central and Western Europe; it has a central location in the country and its drainage basin covers about the 20% of Hungary (together with the Sió Canal). The methodology is based on an analysis of the semi-Markovian properties of atmospheric macrocirculation pattern types (MCP), and a stochastic linkage between daily (here 700 hPa) MCP types and daily precipitation events. Historical data and General Circulation Model (GCM) output of daily MCP corresponding to 1 · CO₂ and 2 · CO₂ scenarios are considered in this study. Time series of both local and areal precipitation corresponding for both scenarios are simulated and their statistical properties are compared. For the temperate continental climate of Western Hungary a slightly variable spatial response to climate change is obtained. Under 2 · CO₂ conditions most of the local and the areal average precipitation suggests, a somewhat dryer precipitation regime in Western Hungary. The sensitivity of the results to the GCM utilized should be considered.With 10 Figures     

The role of ecosystem-atmosphere interactions in simulated Amazonian precipitation decrease and forest dieback under global climate warming

Summary A suite of simulations with the HadCM3LC coupled climate-carbon cycle model is used to examine the various forcings and feedbacks involved in the simulated precipitation decrease and forest dieback. Rising atmospheric CO₂ is found to contribute 20% to the precipitation reduction through the physiological forcing of stomatal closure, with 80% of the reduction being seen when stomatal closure was excluded and only radiative forcing by CO₂ was included. The forest dieback exerts two positive feedbacks on the precipitation reduction; a biogeophysical feedback through reduced forest cover suppressing local evaporative water recycling, and a biogeochemical feedback through the release of CO₂ contributing to an accelerated global warming. The precipitation reduction is enhanced by 20% by the biogeophysical feedback, and 5% by the carbon cycle feedback from the forest dieback. This analysis helps to explain why the Amazonian precipitation reduction simulated by HadCM3LC is more extreme than that simulated in other GCMs; in the fully-coupled, climate-carbon cycle simulation, approximately half of the precipitation reduction in Amazonia is attributable to a combination of physiological forcing and biogeophysical and global carbon cycle feedbacks, which are generally not included in other GCM simulations of future climate change. The analysis also demonstrates the potential contribution of regional-scale climate and ecosystem change to uncertainties in global CO₂ and climate change projections. Moreover, the importance of feedbacks suggests that a human-induced increase in forest vulnerability to climate change may have implications for regional and global scale climate sensitivity.     

Modeling the Impact of Black Spruce on the Fire Regime of Alaskan Boreal Forest

In the boreal biome, fire is the major disturbance agent affecting ecosystem change, and fire dynamics will likely change in response to climatic warming. We modified a spatially explicit model of Alaskan subarctic treeline dynamics (ALFRESCO) to simulate boreal vegetation dynamics in interior Alaska. The model is used to investigate the role of black spruce ecosystems in the fire regime of interior Alaska boreal forest. Model simulations revealed that vegetation shifts caused substantial changes to the fire regime. The number of fires and the total area burned increased as black spruce forest became an increasingly dominant component of the landscape. The most significant impact of adding black spruce to the model was an increase in the frequency and magnitude of large-scale burning events (i.e., time steps in which total area burned far exceeded the normal distribution of area burned). Early successional deciduous forest vegetation burned more frequently when black spruce was added to the model, considerably decreasing the fire return interval of deciduous vegetation. Ecosystem flammability accounted for the majority of the differences in the distribution of the average area burned. These simulated vegetation effects and fire regime dynamics have important implications for global models of vegetation dynamics and potential biotic feedbacks to regional climate.     

Linkages — an individual-based forest ecosystem model

Carbon storage and flow through forest ecosystems are major components of the global carbon cycle. The cycle of carbon is intimately coupled with the cycle of nitrogen and the flow of water through forests. The supply of water for tree growth is determined by climate and soil physical properties. The rate at which nitrogen mineralization occurs depends on climate and the type of carbon compounds with which the nitrogen is associated. Species composition, which is also affected by climate, can greatly influence the composition of carbon compounds and subsequently nitrogen availability. Climate change can therefore have a direct effect on forest ecosystem production and carbon storage through temperature and water limitations, and an indirect effect through the nitrogen cycle by affecting species composition. Model simulations of these interactions show that climate change initiates a complex set of direct and indirect responses that are sensitive to the exact nature of the project climate changes. We show results using four different climate-change projections for a location in northeastern Minnesota. Modeled forest responses to each of these climate projections is different indicating that uncertainties in the climate projections may be amplified further as a result of shifts in balance between positive and negative ecosystem feedbacks.     

An Overview of BCC Climate System Model Development and Application for Climate Change Studies

This paper reviews recent progress in the development of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC-CSM) and its four component models(atmosphere,land surface,ocean,and sea ice).Two recent versions are described:BCC-CSM1.1 with coarse resolution(approximately 2.8125°×2.8125°) and BCC-CSM1.1(m) with moderate resolution(approximately 1.125°×1.125°).Both versions are fully coupled climate-carbon cycle models that simulate the global terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycles and include dynamic vegetation.Both models well simulate the concentration and temporal evolution of atmospheric CO_2 during the 20th century with anthropogenic CO2 emissions prescribed.Simulations using these two versions of the BCC-CSM model have been contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase five(CMIP5) in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report(AR5).These simulations are available for use by both national and international communities for investigating global climate change and for future climate projections.Simulations of the 20th century climate using BCC-CSMl.l and BCC-CSMl.l(m) are presented and validated,with particular focus on the spatial pattern and seasonal evolution of precipitation and surface air temperature on global and continental scales.Simulations of climate during the last millennium and projections of climate change during the next century are also presented and discussed.Both BCC-CSMl.l and BCC-CSMl.l(m) perform well when compared with other CMIP5 models.Preliminary analyses indicate that the higher resolution in BCC-CSM1.1(m) improves the simulation of mean climate relative to BCC-CSMl.l,particularly on regional scales.     

Application of a forest succession model to a continentality gradient through Central Europe

The forest succession model FORSKA was applied to a west-east transect across Central Europe using points from a global climate data set. Climate change experiments were undertaken for two general circulation model scenarios and two different site classes. The simulated climate changes lead to reduced forest productivity and a changed species composition on most sites. Under current climate, the broad scale pattern of the climatically driven distribution of forest communities is quite realistically reproduced. However, the resolution of climate data imposes limitations on the simulation of forest dynamics in subcontinental climate, because climate variability and extreme events are not well represented.