TOPEX卫星高度计有效波高数据分析与极值统计预报

利用 TOPEX卫星高度计测量的有效波高资料 ,对中国近海 9个海域进行卫星高度计的 C,Ku两波段测量值的比较分析与处理 ,得出合理的有效波高数值。利用三参数 Weibull分布 ,以渤海海域、上海附近海域和南海东部海域作为特定区进行有效波高的极值统计预报 ,并进行了统计分析     

有效波高的对数-Beta分布

基于非线性Beta波面分布，采用变换ξ=lnH／γ，导出了一种仅用随机波面偏度λ3和尖度λ4两个参数表示的非线性有效波高概率分布——对数-Beta分布，发展了线性海浪有效波高的双参数对数-正态分布。对比结果表明，对数-Beta分布理论曲线与其对应的实测资料符合良好。推导出的对数-Beta分布的优点是，基本参数较少且便于确定，并可由随机波面高度资料直接推导出对应的有效波高概率密度函数。     

波面极大值处水质点水平加速度的统计分布

基于 L onguet- Higgins线性海浪模型 ,在二维情况下导出海浪波面极大值处水质点水平加速度分布律 ,其分布遵从正态分布。在分布中引入新的谱宽度参量 [(m2 m4 - m23 ) / m2 m4 ]12 。以Neumann谱为模式计算波面极大值处质点加速度分布。     

The Statistical Distribution of the Horizontal Velocities of Water Particles at Wave Surface Maxima

On the basis of the linear model of random sea waves presented by Longuet-Higgins,the statis-tical distribution of the horizontal velocities of water particles at wave surface maxima is derivedtheoretically.The derived distribution is similar to that of wave surface maxima,and a new spectral widthε_u,which is defined as(1-(m_3~2/m_2m_4))~(1/2),is introduced in the distribution.When ε_u tends to zero,the distribu-tion is reduced to Rayleigh distribution and it is reduced to the normal distribution when ε_u tends to unity.For a narrow spectrum,it is proved that ε is equal to 1/2ε,where ε is(1-(m_2~2/m_0m_4))~(1/2)and is the commonlyused spectral width..     

波面极大值处水质点水平速度的统计分布

基于Ｌｏｎｇｕｅｔ－Ｈｉｇｇｉｎｓ提出的线性随机海浪模型,导出了波面极大值处水质点水平速度的统计分布。分布的形式类似于波面极大值的统计分布,其中引入了一个新的谱宽度参量εｕ为１－ｍ２３ｍ２ｍ４１２。当εｕ趋于零时,导出的分布函数为瑞利分布;当εｕ趋于１时,则为正态分布。在窄谱情形下εｕ趋于１２ε,其中ε为１－ｍ２２ｍ０ｍ４１２,为常用的谱宽度参量     

台风诱发暴潮极端潮位的预测方法

以杭州湾为例,根据水文站历史潮位资料,采用改进的灰色马尔可夫预测模型对台风诱发暴潮的极端潮位进行预测.同时采用复合极值分布理论对可能出现的极端潮位进行概率预测,使预测结果更为接近真实数值.     

基于SVM的海浪要素预测试验研究

采用支持向量机对海浪要素中的有效波高进行预测,采用风场和波浪场作为学习要素,对比不同特征向量对有效波高预测结果的准确度。取台湾岛东部海区作为实验区域,使用NCEP再分析的数值模式数据作为学习样本。选用支持向量分类机,建立了4组不同特征向量的模型进行海浪有效波高的预测,并对4种模型的结果进行比较和分析。实验表明,当输入的特征向量过多或过少时,会对模型的预测结果和计算效率产生不同的影响。当使用风场和波浪场共同作为特征向量进行学习时,在该区域预测结果与模式预报结果相比更接近,相关系数将近99%,均方根误差约0.2 m。     

涠洲岛海域年极值风浪联合设计参数估计

将涠洲岛海洋站1961～1989年极值波高与风速的长期观测资料作为统计样本,基于二维皮尔逊Ⅲ型联合分布,估计了年极值有效波高与风速的联合出现概率。以导管架平台基底剪力计算为例,给出了相应的荷载设计组合,与单因素频率分析法相比,联合概率分布法所得百年一遇剪力值约降低18％,条件分布法所得百年一遇剪力值约降低12％。结果表明,考虑环境条件之间的相关性,可以合理降低荷载设计标准,从而减小海洋工程投资费用。     

台风灾害极值预测——模式和应用

台风灾害是影响中国2.5亿人民生命财产和经济发展的重大问题。鉴于现行台风防灾减灾领域存在的问题,提出了"多维复合极值分布"理论及相应的"双层嵌套多目标概率模式",并应用于美国卡特列娜飓风巨灾预测和验证、上海设防标准、杭州湾特大超高水位,三峡设计洪水的概率预测及风险分析,显示了新理论的科学性、先进性和实用性。     

Long-Term Joint Distribution of One-Tenth Large (or Significant) Wave Height with Average Period

- In this paper, by using the wave data from a few oceanographic observation stations in the coastal zone of the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea and the South China Sea, the long-term joint distribution of the one-tenth large (or significant) wave height with average period is studied. The statistical data demonstrate that the long- term distribution of the one- tenth wave height or average period fits the log-normal distribution, thus the joint distribution also fits the two-dimensional log-normal distribution. Then the conditional probability distribution of the average period is derived, and the range as well as the mode of the average wave period corresponding to a certain return period of wave height can be calculated easily.     

Estimation of Extreme Coastal Wave Heights from Time Series of Wave Data

1.IntroductionLarge coastal stormor extreme waves cancause direct damagetocoastal structures,severelyerodesandy beaches andinundate coastal land,resultingin damage to coastal environment(You and Lord,2006).Large coastal stormwaves alsocause extensive sedi…     

非线性效应对风浪波面极大值和极小值分布的影响

通过分析实验室风浪观测结果研究非线性效应对波面极大值和极小值分布的影响。波面极大值和极小值累积概率的差异表明 ,与线性理论相比 ,波面极小值在平均波面以下的位置偏高。对实验结果的进一步分析表明 ,非线性效应使波面极大值在平均波面以上总概率高于线性理论结果 ,而概率密度峰值处波面极大值高度略低于线性理论结果。波面极小值在平均波面以上各位置出现的概率均高于线性理论结果 ,在平均波面以下的较低位置 ,波面极小值出现概率明显低于线性理论结果。     

波浪骑士数据在高度计有效波高检验中的再处理

以2011年10～11月南海现场试验得到的9次波浪骑士测量数据,进行波浪骑士再处理与默认计算结果比对。比对结果表明两者平均误差为0.16m,均方根误差为0.32m,分析产生误差的原因在于波浪骑士默认计算有效波高时间段的中心与卫星过境时间不统一和未进行数据质量控制。研究表明在卫星高度计有效波高产品检验中,波浪骑士测量的有效波高需要进行再处理,以达到减少卫星高度计有效波高检验误差的目的。     

基于SVR和LSTM算法反演散射计下有效波高研究

有效波高反演对于海洋工程及海洋环境安全具有重要意义.我国海洋二号(HY-2A)卫星载有散射计和高度计等获取海洋要素的仪器.散射计可获取海洋风场数据但无法直接获取有效波高数据,高度计可获取海洋有效波高数据但覆盖区域狭小.本文将散射计与高度计各自优势结合,利用支持向量回归(SVR)和长短期记忆(LSTM)智能算法反演散射计...     

Comparison of Near Coastal Significant Wave Height Measurements from SARAL/AltiKa with Wave Rider Buoys in the Indian Region

Significant Wave Height (SWH) measurement data from the AltiKa Radar Altimeter (RA) for the first 13 cycles of satellite coverage are compared with the SWH from Wave Rider Buoys (WRB) located at nine stations along the Indian coast to assess the performance of the altimeter over the coastal region. AltiKa SWH observations within a 30-minute interval and 50 km distance from WRBs are found to be over estimated by 6%, the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) is 0.36 m, the Scatter Index (SI) is 26%, and the correlation coefficient (r) is 0.91. Relaxing the distance criteria by 50 km leads to increase in RMSE and deterioration of r to 0.89. There is a marked difference in the statistics on the comparison pairs pooled separately for the buoys near west and east coasts, with the latter showing RMSE error 26% more than the former. The method of Cressman weights adopted to correct for the errors arising out of the temporal and spatial differences in altimeter and buoy data comparison pairs resulted in reduction of RMSE by 5% and 25%, respectively, for the 30-minute and 50 km criteria and 4% and 56% for the 30-minute and 100 km criteria.     

Dependence of Wave Height Distribution on Spectral Width and Wave Steepness

In this paper experimental wind wave data are analyzed. It is found that differences in spectral width will give rise to differences in wave height distribution. The effect of spectral width on the distribution is mainly in the high wave range. The effect of wave steepness is in low, medium and high wave ranges. In the high wave range the effect of spectral width is comparable to that of wave steepness. Differences in spectral width in the observations may give rise to discrepancies in the result when wave steepness is the only parameter in the distribution.     

最大熵原理应用于海浪波高分布的研究

利用最大熵原理从理论上推导出波高的最大熵分布,在此基础上研究了状态参量对波高分布和波高熵的影响。影响最大熵分布的因子是平均波高和状态参量,不同海况对应的状态参量是不同的。利用波高实测资料,得出3种不同海况下的最大熵分布,通过比较发现最大熵分布很好地符合实测数据。把最大熵分布与目前广泛应用的瑞利分布作了比较,结果表明,最大熵分布有2个优点：没有对波高作出任何限制性假定和能够描述不同海况下的波高分布。     

基于Beta波面分布的非线性海浪波高分布

基于非线性Beta波面分布,采用经验变换,导出1种仅用随机波面偏度λ3和尖度λ4 2个参数表示的非线性海浪波高概率统计分布--波高类Beta分布.此分布发展了线性窄谱假定下的Rayleigh分布.就所用实验室资料验证而言,本文推导的波高类Beta分布要优于几种工程上常用的波高分布.     

Long-Term Validation of Wave Height Measurements from Altimeters

Since July 1991, six altimeter missions have been launched successfully, and they have provided almost continuous wave height measurements for more than 12 years. Long-term series of wave height measurements are of major interest for climatology and oceanic wave modeling. Before using such data, the measurements have to be validated, and the homogeneity of the data from various satellites has to be checked. Significant wave height measurements from ERS, TOPEX/Poseidon, GEOSAT Follow-on, Jason-1 and ENVISAT altimeters are validated using cross-altimeter and buoy comparisons. Emphasis is put on the two recent missions Jason-1 and ENVISAT. Corrections for biases and trends are proposed for the six altimeters, allowing the generation of consistent and homogeneous data. Tests of these corrections are performed over global ocean simple statistics.     

Long-Term Validation of Wave Height Measurements from Altimeters

Since July 1991, six altimeter missions have been launched successfully, and they have provided almost continuous wave height measurements for more than 12 years. Long-term series of wave height measurements are of major interest for climatology and oceanic wave modeling. Before using such data, the measurements have to be validated, and the homogeneity of the data from various satellites has to be checked. Significant wave height measurements from ERS, TOPEX/Poseidon, GEOSAT Follow-on, Jason-1 and ENVISAT altimeters are validated using cross-altimeter and buoy comparisons. Emphasis is put on the two recent missions Jason-1 and ENVISAT. Corrections for biases and trends are proposed for the six altimeters, allowing the generation of consistent and homogeneous data. Tests of these corrections are performed over global ocean simple statistics.