Changes in average and extreme precipitation in two regional climate model experiments

Two regional climate model experiments for northern and central Europe are studied focussing on greenhouse gas‐induced changes in heavy precipitation. The average yearly maximum one‐day precipitation P _max shows a general increase in the whole model domain in both experiments, although the mean precipitation P _mean decreases in the southern part of the area, especially in one of the experiments. The average yearly maximum six‐hour precipitation increases even more than the one‐day P _max, suggesting a decrease in the timescale of heavy precipitation. The contrast between the P _mean and P _max changes in the southern part of the domain and the lack of such a contrast further north are affected by changes in wet‐day frequency that stem, at least in part, from changes in atmospheric circulation. However, the yearly extremes of precipitation exhibit a larger percentage increase than the average wet‐day precipitation. The signal‐to‐noise aspects of the model results are also studied in some detail. The 44 km grid‐box‐scale changes in P _max are very heavily affected by inter‐annual variability, with an estimated standard error of about 20% for the 10‐year mean changes. However, the noise in P _max decreases sharply toward larger horizontal scales, and large‐area mean changes in P _max can be estimated with similar accuracy to those in P _mean. Although a horizontal averaging of model results smooths out the small‐scale details in the true climate change signal as well, this disadvantage is, in the case of P _max changes, much smaller than the advantage of reduced noise.     

渤海、北黄海海冰与气候变化的关系

渤海和北黄海的冰情随着历年冬季气候差异而不同.暖冬海冰覆盖范围不足海域的15%,而寒冬可覆盖海域80%以上.概述了海冰监测及资料来源.冰覆盖面积、外缘线位置和冰况等级等被作为反映结冰海域冰情的指标.用大连和营口站的气温表示渤海、北黄海海域的局地气候.用1952～2000年大连的月平均气温描述冰情的变化.给出冰情指数由1952/1953年到1999/2000年随大连站月平均气温变化.影响渤海和北黄海冰情和气候的因子很多,诸如大气环流的演变和太阳活动等.分析了多种因子与冰情的滞后相关,指出20世纪90年代渤海冰情持续偏轻与全球气候变暖趋势相当一致;渤海和北黄海冰情的年际变化与El-Nino现象以及太阳活动周期有关;讨论了海冰季节演变的特征     

Storminess and vulnerability along the Atlantic coastlines of Europe: analysis of storm records and of a greenhouse gases induced climate scenario

Identification of the distinctive circulation patterns of storminess on the Atlantic margin of Europe forms the main objective of this study; dealing with storm frequency, intensity and tracking. The climatology of the extratropical cyclones that affect this region has been examined for the period 1940–1998. Coastal meteorological data from Ireland to Spain have been linked to the cyclone history for the North Atlantic in the analysis of storm records for European coasts. The study examines the evolution in the occurrence of storms since the 1940s and also their relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Results indicate a seasonal shift in the wind climate, with regionally more severe winters and calmer summers established. This pattern appears to be linked to a northward displacement in the main North Atlantic cyclone track.

An experiment with the ECHAM4 A-GCM at high resolution (T106) has also been used to model the effect of a greenhouse gases induced warming climate on the climatology of coastal storms in the region. The experiment consists of (1), a 30-year control time-slice representing present-day equivalent CO₂ concentrations and (2), a 30-year perturbed period corresponding to a time when the radiative forcing has doubled in terms of equivalent CO₂ concentrations. The boundary conditions have been obtained from an atmosphere-ocean coupled OA-GCM simulation at low horizontal resolution. An algorithm was developed to allow the identification of individual cyclone movements in selected coastal zones. For most of the northern part of the study region, covering Ireland and Scotland, results describe the establishment by ca. 2060 of a tendency for fewer but more intense storms.

The impacts of these changes in storminess for the vulnerability of European Atlantic coasts are considered. For low-lying, exposed and ‘soft’ sedimentary coasts, as in Ireland, these changes in storminess are likely to result in significant localised increases in coastal erosion.     

Influence of volcanic activity on climate change in the past several centuries: Assessments with a climate model of intermediate complexity

The climate model of intermediate complexity developed at the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM) is supplemented by a scheme which takes into account the volcanic forcing of climate. With this model, ensemble experiments have been conducted for the 1600s–1900s, in which, along with the volcanic forcing, the anthropogenic forcing due to greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols and the natural forcing due to variations in solar irradiance were taken into account. The model realistically reproduces the annual mean response of surface air temperature and precipitation to major eruptions both globally and regionally. In particular, the decreases in the annual mean global temperature T _g in the IAP RAS CM after the largest eruptions in the latter half of the 20th century, the Mt. Agung (1963), El Chichon (1982), and Mt. Pinatubo (1991) volcanic eruptions, are 0.28, 0.27, and 0.46 K, respectively, in agreement with estimates from observational data. Moreover, in the IAP RAS CM, the volcanic eruptions result in a general precipitation decrease, especially over land in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The seasonal distribution of the response shows good agreement with observations for high-latitude eruptions and worse agreement for tropical and subtropical volcanoes. On interdecadal scales, volcanism leads to variations in T _g on the order of 0.1 K. In numerical experiments with anthropogenic and natural forcings, the model reproduces a general change in surface air temperature over the past several centuries. Taking into account the volcanic forcing, along with that due to variations in solar irradiance, the model has partly reproduced the nonmonotonic global warming for the 20th century.     

Oceanic Rossby waves induced by the meridional shift of the ITCZ in association with ENSO events

This study investigated the eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) as an atmospheric forcing to the ocean by using various observed and reanalysis data sets over 29 years. Climatologically, a zonal band of positive wind stress curl (WSC) with a 10° meridional width was exhibited along the ITCZ. A southward shift of the positive WSC band during the El Niño phase induced a negative (positive) WSC anomaly along the northern (southern) portion of the ITCZ, and vice versa during the La Niña phase. This meridional dipole accounted for more than 25 % of interannual variances of the WSC anomalies (WSCAs), based on analysis of the period 1993–2008. The negative (positive) WSCA in the northern portion of the ITCZ during the El Niño (La Niña) phase was collocated with a positive (negative) sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) that propagated westward as a Rossby wave all the way to the western North Pacific. This finding indicates that this off-equatorial Rossby wave is induced by the WSCA around the ITCZ. Our analysis of a 1.5-layer reduced gravity model revealed that the Rossby waves are mostly explained by wind stress forcing, rather than by reflection of an equatorial Kelvin wave on the eastern coastal boundary. The off-equatorial Rossby wave had the same SSHA polarity as the equatorial Kelvin wave, and generation of a phase-preserving Rossby wave without the Kelvin wave reflection was explained by meridional movement of the ITCZ. Thus, the ITCZ acts as an atmospheric bridge that connects the equatorial and off-equatorial oceanic waves.     

Simulation of climate change induced by injection of sulfur compounds into the stratosphere

An atmosphere-ocean general circulation model including the atmospheric chemistry and carbon cycle was used to perform numerical experiments to simulate the consequences of geoengineering. Out of the five emission scenarios considered here, the scenario where the injection of sulfur compounds occurs near the equator at an altitude between 22 and 24 km can be considered the most efficient in the sense of a maximum decrease in globally averaged surface temperature. We consider the equilibrium distribution of the sulfate aerosol and changes in temperature at the Earth’s surface and at different altitudes, in precipitation, in ozone concentration, and in primary plant productivity caused by geoengineering.     

Effects of regional climate changes on the planktonic ecosystem and water environment in the frozen Notoro Lagoon,northern Japan

Diatom fossils from core sediments and living diatoms from water samples of Notoro Lagoon in northern Japan were examined to evaluate natural climate effects on lagoon environmental changes. In 1974, the artificial inlet was excavated. Immediately after, the anoxic bottom water in Notoro Lagoon began to disappear due to an increasing water exchange rate. However, chemical oxygen demand (COD) in the bottom water of Notoro Lagoon gradually increased, with fluctuations, during the last 30 years. In addition, the dominant diatom assemblages in Notoro Lagoon shifted to ice-related and spring bloom taxa after the excavation. The dominant taxa of each year in the sediment core were also strongly related to the timing of lagoon ice melting. This is because the COD in Notoro Lagoon was affected by the deposited volume of blooming diatoms, which was controlled by the duration of ice cover and the timing of ice discharge to the Okhotsk Sea likely due to an air pressure pattern change over the northern North Pacific like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).     

Evaluation of a regional climate model using in situ temperature observations over the Balkan Peninsula

Climate model data provide large, dense coverage and long time-series, characteristics that are advantageous in the study of climate. However, it is not recommended that such data be used in any region without prior evaluation of their reliability based on comparisons with in situ observations. In this study, the accuracy of maximum and minimum temperature data from the ALADIN-Climate regional climate model (with a 25-km horizontal resolution driven at the lateral boundaries by the ERA-40 reanalysis) have been assessed for 53 stations across the Balkan Peninsula. The model temperatures corresponding to each station were extracted from their nearest land grids. The model data were first compared with observations and subsequently examined for their ability to identify extreme temperature events. In general, the model was found to be quite accurate in describing the seasonal cycle, as well as simulating the spatial distribution of temperature. Simulations were more realistic for stations along coastlines, highlighting the constraints of the topographic forcing in the simulations. Assessing the performance of the model to determine extremes (warm and cold spells), it was found to be better at detecting cold spells and has a tendency toward overestimating the frequency of occurrence of warm spells, particularly in summer.     

一个区域海洋——海冰——大气耦合模式中的北极气候偏差：年结果检验

The Coupling of three model components, WRF/PCE （polar climate extension version of weather research and forecasting model （WRF））, ROMS （regional ocean modeling system）, and CICE （community ice code）, has been implemented, and the regional atmosphere-ocean-sea ice coupled model named WRF/PCE- ROMS-CICE has been validated against ERA-interim reanalysis data sets for 1989. To better understand the reasons that generate model biases, the WRF/PCE-ROMS-CICE results were compared with those of its components, the WRF/PCE and the ROMS-CICE. There are cold biases in surface air temperature （SAT） over the Arctic Ocean, which contribute to the sea ice concentration （SIC） and sea surface temperature （SST） biases in the results of the WRF/PCE-ROMS-CICE. The cold SAT biases also appear in results of the atmo- spheric component with a mild temperature in winter and similar temperature in summer. Compared to results from the WRF/PCE, due to influences of different distributions of the SIC and the SST and inclusion of interactions of air-sea-sea ice in the WRF/PCE-ROMS-CICE, the simulated SAT has new features. These influences also lead to apparent differences at higher levels of the atmosphere, which can be thought as responses to biases in the SST and sea ice extent. There are similar atmospheric responses in feature of distribution to sea ice biases at 700 and 500 hPa, and the strength of responses weakens when the pressure decreases in January. The atmospheric responses in July reach up to 200 hPa. There are surplus sea ice ex- tents in the Greenland Sea, the Barents Sea, the Davis Strait and the Chukchi Sea in winter and in the Beau- fort Sea, the Chukchi Sea, the East Siberian Sea and the Laptev Sea in summer in the ROMS-CICE. These differences in the SIC distribution can all be explained by those in the SST distributions. These features in the simulated SST and SIC from ROMS-CICE also appear in the WRF/PCE-ROMS-CICE. It is shown that the performance of the WRF/PCE-ROMS-CICE is determined to a l     

Securing ocean benefits for society in the face of climate change

Benefits humans rely on from the ocean – marine ecosystem services – are increasingly vulnerable under future climate. This paper reviews how three valued services have, and will continue to, shift under climate change: (1) capture fisheries, (2) food from aquaculture, and (3) protection from coastal hazards such as storms and sea-level rise. Climate adaptation planning is just beginning for fisheries, aquaculture production, and risk mitigation for coastal erosion and inundation. A few examples are highlighted, showing the promise of considering multiple ecosystem services in developing approaches to adapt to sea-level rise, ocean acidification, and rising sea temperatures.Ecosystem-based adaptation in fisheries and along coastlines and changes in aquaculture practices can improve resilience of species and habitats to future environmental challenges. Opportunities to use market incentives – such as compensation for services or nutrient trading schemes – are relatively untested in marine systems. Relocation of communities in response to rising sea levels illustrates the urgent need to manage human activities and investments in ecosystems to provide a sustainable flow of benefits in the face of future climate change.     

Depositional characteristics and accumulation model of gas hydrates in northern South China Sea

The South China Sea (SCS) shows favorable conditions for gas hydrate accumulation and exploration prospects. Bottom simulating reflectors (BSRs) are widely distributed in the SCS. Using seismic and sequence stratigraphy, the spatial distribution of BSRs has been determined in three sequences deposited since the Late Miocene. The features of gas hydrate accumulations in northern SCS were systematically analyzed by an integrated analysis of gas source conditions, migration pathways, heat flow values, occurrence characteristics, and depositional conditions (including depositional facies, rates of deposition, sand content, and lithological features) as well as some depositional bodies (structural slopes, slump blocks, and sediment waves). This research shows that particular geological controls are important for the presence of BSRs in the SCS, not so much the basic thermodynamic controls such as temperature, pressure and a gas source. Based on this, a typical depositional accumulation model has been established. This model summarizes the distribution of each depositional system in the continental shelf, continental slope, and continental rise, and also shows the typical elements of gas hydrate accumulations. BSRs appear to commonly occur more in slope-break zones, deep-water gravity flows, and contourites. The gas hydrate-bearing sediments in the Shenhu drilling area mostly contain silt or clay, with a silt content of about 70%. In the continental shelf, BSRs are laterally continuous, and the key to gas hydrate formation and accumulation lies in gas transportation and migration conditions. In the continental slope, a majority of the BSRs are associated with zones of steep and rough relief with long-term alternation of uplift and subsidence. Rapid sediment unloading can provide a favorable sedimentary reservoir for gas hydrates. In the continental rise, BSRs occur in the sediments of submarine fans, turbidity currents.     

Economic impact of climate change and climate change adaptation strategies for fisheries sector in Solomon Islands: Implication for food security

Fisheries resources play a major role in the national economy and to food security in Solomon Islands. Climate change is likely to have a substantial impact on fish production that can lead to a fragile food security condition in the country. This paper assesses the potential economic impact of three important climate change adaptation strategies – natural resource management (NRM), fish aggregating devices (FAD) and aquaculture – in Solomon Islands. The study used a country-specific partial equilibrium economic model with six fish sub-sectors and analyzed potential impact of alternate climate change adaptation strategies for 2035 and 2050. The modeling and scenario analyses show that total fish demand is likely to surpass domestic fish production in 2050. Without appropriate climate adaptation strategy, per capita consumption of domestically produced fish will decline, which has serious negative food security implications for the country. The economic (welfare) analysis conducted based on modeling results show that the national level net economic gains due to climate change adaptation strategies are substantial. If cost and topographic conditions permit, low-cost inshore FADs are expected to be a good mechanism for augmenting domestic supplies of tuna and similar species in Solomon Islands.     

Simulation of modern climate with the new version of the INM RAS climate model

The INMCM5.0 numerical model of the Earth’s climate system is presented, which is an evolution from the previous version, INMCM4.0. A higher vertical resolution for the stratosphere is applied in the atmospheric block. Also, we raised the upper boundary of the calculating area, added the aerosol block, modified parameterization of clouds and condensation, and increased the horizontal resolution in the ocean block. The program implementation of the model was also updated. We consider the simulation of the current climate using the new version of the model. Attention is focused on reducing systematic errors as compared to the previous version, reproducing phenomena that could not be simulated correctly in the previous version, and modeling the problems that remain unresolved.     

WOFOST模型在评估气候变化对粮食生产影响方面的研究进展

近年来国内外学者采用不同的方法评估气候变化对粮食生产的影响,其中机理模型评价方法是运用较多的方法之一。WOFOST（WOrld FOod STudies）模型由于其机理性强、源代码开放、参数调整较为简便等优势,已经在相关研究中得到广泛应用。该模型以不同作物生长发育的机理过程为依据,经过适用性验证后,可用于粮食作物气候生产潜力评估和气象灾害影响评价;结合历史气候资料与未来气候情景数据,可定量评价过去及未来气候变化对粮食生产的影响。通过介绍WOFOST模型的基本原理、运行机制、参数设定与参数本地化等相关方法,系统总结该模型在评估气候变化对粮食生产影响方面的研究进展,并指出现有研究存在的不足,以期为未来开展相关研究工作提供参考。     

Targeted ensemble prediction for northern Europe and parts of the north Atlantic Ocean

The targeting procedure developed at ECMWF is used to make ensembles specially designed for northern Europe and parts of the north Atlantic Ocean. A total of 35 ensembles are integrated, consisting of 20 winter cases and 15 summer cases in 1997, each consisting of 20 members plus one control forecast. The ensembles are run up to day 10, and the ensemble spread inside the target area continues to increase all through the 10 days. Two distinct regimes of increase can be found, the first increase is consistent with the perturbations moving in and through the target area, it is hypothesised that the latter increase in ensemble spread around forecast day 5‐7 is connected with increasing non‐linearity. The performance of the experimental ensembles is compared to the operational ensemble prediction system (EPS) at ECMWF, both with all 50 members and with only 20 members. The spread increases when the number of members in the ensemble prediction system is increased, and the spread increases inside the target area when targeting is applied. We find that the increase in spread when going from EPS with 50 members to the targeted ensembles is larger than when going from 20 to 50 ensemble members of the operational sets. Clearly targeting must be an option when predicting for a sub‐domain of the hemisphere. Looking at other measures, such as the Brier skill score (BSS), relative operating characteristic (ROC) curves and cost/loss analyses, the impact of the targeting is modest for the winter cases, but the impact for the summer cases is evident. For the winter cases a large part of the operational perturbations were located in the same area as the targeted perturbations, and the differences for the two sets are small. For the summer cases the operational perturbations were mostly split between two locations and hence the targeting will give results differing more from the operational.