PVA-maxima and their connection to cloud systems in satellite images and to precipitation

Summary PVA-maxima can be a contributor to upward motion; there-fore cloudiness and precipitation can be expected there. This is investigated from several viewpoints: grey shade evaluations of false colour satellite images are done, frequencies of precipitation events for PVA maxima and grey shade intervals are investigated, precipitation amounts within the PVA maxima path are compared to a surroundings and the predictability from the ECMWF model is proved. Several results could be derived: PVA maxima are accompanied by brighter grey shade intervals and a higher precipitation probability than surrounding areas; for the brightest grey shade intervals a probability for precipitation of 60–70% can be stated; the path of the PVA maxima is an area of more precipitation than in the surroundings; ECMWF forecasts are able to predict the PVA maxima and their location very well but tend to underestimate the precipitation amounts on the PVA maxima path.With 9 Figures     

Nelder-Mead单纯形算法改进及在气象上的应用

Nelder-Mead Simplex (NMS)算法是一种查找多元函数局地最小值的无微分算法,在现代科学计算中得到广泛应用,该文提出了一种对NMS算法的改进方法.改进后,大大简化了其计算过程,提高了该算法的收敛速度.利用改进后的算法对陆面过程参数进行了拟合计算,结果表明:改进的NMS算法对非线性公式具有非常高的拟合精...     

以Schr?dinger方程为例子介绍直接解法及其在波与波碰撞中的应用

本文以描述某些中尺度系统振幅演变的Schr?dinger方程为例子，着重介绍了直接解法及其在波与波的碰撞相互作用过程中的应用。     

香港气候变化国际会议(ICCC)更加关注应对与行动

2007年5月29-31日,气候变化国际会议(International Conference on Climate Change,ICCC)在中国香港召开。400余位来自全球的自然科学家、社会学家、经济学家、     

云的观测及编报中应注意的几个问题

分析了云的观测及编报中易出现的几个习惯性错误及其产生的原因,并提出正确的观测方法,以提高观测记录水平。     

科学调整作物结构促进农业可持续发展的建议

指出在农业结构调整中要注意资源的稳定性与市场的变化性和农业经济效益与生态效益统一的问题，进而提出种植业结构调整如何适应农业可持续发展和作物种植结构调整的保障措施。     

一种动态数据的新建模法及其预报应用

文章提出了一种新的动态数据建模法, 利用观测的数据序列, 先用双向差分原理反导出一个非线性常微分方程。 以此作为微分动力核, 然后运用自忆性原理建立预报模式, 我们称之为数据机理自记忆模式(Data-based Mechanism Self-memory Model), 简称为数忆模式, 缩写为 DAMSM。 多个实例计算表明, 数忆模式的预报准确率是比较令人满意的, 给出了长江三角洲夏季降水年际预报的实例。     

Agrometeorological Research and Applications Needed to Prepare Agriculture and Forestry to 21st Century Climate Change

The adaptation of agriculture and forestry to the climate of the twenty-first century supposes that research projects will be conducted cooperatively between meteorologists, agronomists, soil scientists, hydrologists, and modellers. To prepare for it, it is appropriate first of all to study the variations in the climate of the past using extensive, homogenised series of meteorological or phenological data. General circulation models constitute the basic tool in order to predict future changes in climate. They will be improved, and the regionalisation techniques used for downscaling climate predictions will also be made more efficient. Crop simulation models using input data from the general circulation models applied at the regional level ought to be the favoured tools to allow the extrapolation of the major trends on yield, consumption of water, fertilisers, pesticides, the environment and rural development. For this, they have to be validated according to the available agronomical data, particularly the available phenological series on cultivated crops. In addition, climate change would have impact on crop diseases and parasites, as well as on weeds. Very few studies have been carried out in this field. It is also necessary to quantify in a more accurate way the stocks and fluxes of carbon in large forest ecosystems, simulate their future, and assess the vulnerability of the various forest species to a change in climate. This is all the more important in that some propagate species choices must be made in the course of the next ten years in plantations which will experience changed climate. More broadly speaking, we shall have not only to try hard to research new agricultural and forestry practices which will reduce greenhouse gas emissions or promote the storage of carbon, but it will also be indispensable to prepare the adaptation of numerous rural communities for the climate change (with special reference to least developed countries in tropical areas, where malnutrition is a common threat). This can be accomplished with a series of new environmental management practices suited to the new climatic order.     

MICAPS的开发及应用

９２１０工程是近年来气象业务现代化的重要标志。对已开发的ＭＩＣＡＰＳ进行了总结,详细介绍了应用图标、收看及打印传真图、简单资料备份及本地化的方法,达到了使用方便、运行快捷的目的。     

通信光缆的雷击形式与防雷方法

针对社会上基于光缆中光纤是非金属材料而不会引起雷击的错误认识，阐明了通信光缆仍有可能遭受雷击的原因；同时，对通信光缆的三种雷击形式进行了概述；另外，对当前国内两种通信光缆防雷方法的适应性作了客观评价，并分别就光缆敷设前和针对光缆金属构件的防雷提出了相应的具体措施。     

Linking development to climate adaptation: Leveraging generic and specific capacities to reduce vulnerability to drought in NE Brazil

To respond to climate impact, poor agricultural households in less developed regions rely on different types of assets that define their overall adaptive capacity (AC). However not all assets build capacity equally. In this study we argue that building AC requires a combination of interventions that address not only climate-related risks (specific capacity) but also the structural deficits (e.g., lack of income, education, health, political power) (generic capacity) that shape vulnerability. Focusing on rainfed agriculture in NE Brazil, we investigate how households leverage and combine generic and specific capacities to reduce vulnerability. Particularly we explore: 1) the relative importance of different kinds of capacity in shaping vulnerability on these households and 2) how the level of generic capacities (particularly as a result of Brazil’s anti-poverty program Bolsa Família) influences the adoption of specific ones. We find that both kinds of capacity matter, as relatively higher levels of generic capacity (in terms of income in general, and climate-neutral income specifically) are associated with higher levels of specific capacity (irrigation). In addition we find that while Bolsa Família has been positive in increasing income, it has not been sufficient to manage the risk of food insecurity during drought events, suggesting a 'poverty trap' in which families are constantly coping with drought but failing to overcome the conditions that make them vulnerable. Our findings indicate that in order to decrease climate vulnerability of poor agricultural households, development interventions, such as anti-poverty programs, have to go beyond cash transfer and should incorporate risk management policies that enhance synergies between generic and specific capacities.     

Laser-Doppler anemometry and its application to flow investigations related to the environment of vegetation

Accurate measurements in highly turbulent flows, as they occur in nature, require reliable velocity measuring techniques that permit instantaneous velocity components to be locally recorded. Hot-element techniques and optical methods are available for local measurements of instantaneous velocity and the present paper summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of different techniques when applied to flow fields in the environment of vegetation. The paper points out the advantages of laser-Doppler anemometry for velocity measurements in highly turbulent flows under laboratory conditions and stresses the reliability of the technique for measurements in polluted air and water flows. The basic principles of the method are explained and developments are described that have yielded optical anemometer systems for measurements of the magnitudes and signs of the instantaneous velocity components. Both quantities have to be known if accurate measurements of the mean flow properties and turbulence characteristics in flow fields with unknown flow directions are required. Electronic data-processing systems for laser-Doppler anemometer measurements are surveyed, embracing frequency analysers, automatic filter banks, frequency trackers, photon correlators and frequency counters. Photon-correlation and counting techniques are introduced as the methods most likely to be employed for the laser-Doppler anemometer. Laser-Doppler anemometer investigations are described in boundary-layer flows along bean leaves and a metal model of plant leaves. These measurements formed the basis of heat and mass transfer predictions near leaves for a specific leaf position relative to the free stream and with different turbulence properties imposed onto the oncoming flow. These data are presented and discussed in some detail. Measurements are also presented that were carried out to investigate the velocity fields in different flow regimes around a square obstacle in a water flow. These flow properties were needed to understand the different growth rates of sea-weed observed in differing flow regimes.     

英国促进企业减排的激励措施及其对中国的借鉴

英国为促进企业减少温室气体排放制定并实施了一系列的激励措施,包括气候变化税、气候变化协议、英国排放贸易机制、强化投资补贴项目和碳基金等。在概述这些政策工具的基本特点的基础上,分析和强调了政策工具之间的协同关系及其对中国的借鉴意义。     

试析新疆气候特征对田径运动训练的影响

田径运动训练和比赛成绩的好坏,除了与运动员临场竞技状态等因素有关外,还与比赛训练时的气象要素风、气温、湿度等有着密切关系。本文结合新疆的气候特征着重阐述了不同季节气候的变化对田径运动训练的影响,同时也分析了“五差”对新疆田径运动员竞技能力的影响,并提出了建议。     

Role of Education and Training in Agricultural Meteorology to Reduce Vulnerability to Climate Variability

Agricultural meteorologists are concerned with many operational aspects of the effects of climate on crop production, livestock, and natural resource management. For them to continue to make a contribution to the economy of a country they must continually sharpen their skills and remain updated on the latest available information. Training should include a variety of skills, including transferable skills (e.g. communication, numeracy), professional skills (including cognitive skills) and information technology skills. Problem-based learning can be used to promote critical thinking, decision making and analytical skills. More use should be made of computer-aided learning for agricultural meteorologists’ in-service training. In particular, the Internet or CDs could be used to disseminate specific recently developed techniques and applications to improve the understanding of the variability in climate and its effect on agricultural production and natural resource management. Examples that can address the vulnerability of farmers include crop–climate matching, the use of indices, crop modelling and risk assessment together with seasonal outlooks. A strategy needs to be formulated to address these needs and implement changes in the education and training of agricultural meteorologists. These training needs must be constantly updated to meet the changing demands of new technology to cope with climate change and climate variability.