Biomarkers in environmental and human health risk assessment

Marine pollution is a major threat to human and environmental health. Given the complexity of function of marine and coastal ecosystems, it is unlikely that a balanced view of the nature and extent of risk will easily be achieved if human and environmental risk assessments continue to be conducted in isolation. Here, the integration of assessment protocols is advocated as a holistic means of improving risk management. Biomarkers can provide the common conceptual framework and measurable endpoints necessary for successful integration. Examples are given of the ways in which suites of biomarkers encompassing molecular change, cellular pathology and physiological impairment can be developed and adapted for human and ecological scenarios. By placing a greater emphasis on the health status of impacted biota, it is more likely that risk assessment will develop the efficiency, reliability and predictive power to adapt to the unforeseen environmental threats that are an inevitable consequence of human development and global change.     

A probabilistic approach to exposure risk assessment

The introduction of hazardous substances into the environment has long been recognized as being a cause of several diseases in humans, wildlife, and plants. The damaging character of suspected contaminants is usually assessed via a “reject/retain” design with no explicit link between levels of exposure and intensities of the potential adverse health effects even though this connection may be important for the development of public health regulations that limit exposure to hazardous substances. Here, we propose a probabilistic approach to exposure risk assessment as a way around this typical flaw. We develop a Bayesian model using proximity to the source of an alleged contaminant as a surrogate for exposure. Subsequently, we carry out an experimental study based on simulated data to illustrate the model implementation with real world data. We also discuss a possible way of extending the model to accommodate potential heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of the focal disease.     

Modeling of transport in groundwater for environmental risk assessment

This paper presents the principles underlying a recently developed numerical technique for modeling transport in heterogeneous porous media. The method is then applied to derive the concentration mean and variance, the concentration CDF, exceedance probabilities and exposure time CDF, which are required by various regulatory agencies for risk and performance assessment calculations. The dependence of the various statistics on elapsed travel time, location in space, the dimension of the detection volume, natural variability and pore-scale dispersion is investigated and discussed.     

A review of ecological risk assessment and associated health risks with heavy metals in sediment from India

Heavy metal (HM) pollution in sediment is a serious concern particularly in developing nations, warranting an extensive survey to understand the current situation and propose possible remedial measures. This paper compiles the data of HMs cadmium (Cd), iron (Fe), cobalt (Co), manganese (Mn), arsenic (As), lead (Pb), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn) and nickel (Ni) in aquatic sediment from India from 1979 to 2017. It was found that mean values of Cu, Co, Zn, Pb, As, and Cr in Indian sediment were high in comparison to the Australian Interim Sediment Quality Guidelines, World Surface Rock Average, and the Threshold Effect Level for freshwater ecosystems. Anthropogenic activities, lithogenic factors, and sand intrusion are the main factors associated with HM pollution as observed using cluster analysis and principal component analysis. The results of contamination indices indicate that HM contamination ranged from average to high, in the sediment. The ecological risk assessment results showed that 11% HMs present very high risk. The cancer risk, due to the high contents of Cd, As, and Cr the ingestion pathway, showed high risk of cancer through food/water contaminated with sediment. At source reduction of HMs in industrial effluents by effluent treatment plants, and plantation of phytoremediating rooted macrophytes in sediment may help in HM mitigation of the sediment.     

Mapping the environmental risk of a tourist harbor in order to foster environmental security: Objective vs. subjective assessments

A new definition of environmental security gives equal importance to the objective and subjective assessments of environmental risk. In this framework, the management of tourist harbors has to take into account managers’ perceptions. The subject of the present study is a tourist harbor in southern Italy where six different managers are present. This paper aims to assess subjectively and objectively the environmental risks associated with the harbor, and to compare the results to provide estimates of environmental security. Hereby managers have been interviewed and a simple model is used for making preliminary assessment of environmental risks. The comparison of the results highlighted a common mismatch between risk perception and risk assessment. We demonstrated that the old part of the harbor is less secure than the new part. In addition, one specific manager representing a public authority showed a leading role in ensuring the environmental security of the whole harbor.     

Probabilistic-fuzzy health risk modeling

Health risk analysis of multi-pathway exposure to contaminated water involves the use of mechanistic models that include many uncertain and highly variable parameters. Currently, the uncertainties in these models are treated using statistical approaches. However, not all uncertainties in data or model parameters are due to randomness. Other sources of imprecision that may lead to uncertainty include scarce or incomplete data, measurement error, data obtained from expert judgment, or subjective interpretation of available information. These kinds of uncertainties and also the non-random uncertainty cannot be treated solely by statistical methods. In this paper we propose the use of fuzzy set theory together with probability theory to incorporate uncertainties into the health risk analysis. We identify this approach as probabilistic-fuzzy risk assessment (PFRA). Based on the form of available information, fuzzy set theory, probability theory, or a combination of both can be used to incorporate parameter uncertainty and variability into mechanistic risk assessment models. In this study, tap water concentration is used as the source of contamination in the human exposure model. Ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact are considered as multiple exposure pathways. The tap water concentration of the contaminant and cancer potency factors for ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact are treated as fuzzy variables while the remaining model parameters are treated using probability density functions. Combined utilization of fuzzy and random variables produces membership functions of risk to individuals at different fractiles of risk as well as probability distributions of risk for various alpha-cut levels of the membership function. The proposed method provides a robust approach in evaluating human health risk to exposure when there is both uncertainty and variability in model parameters. PFRA allows utilization of certain types of information which have not been used directly in existing risk assessment methods.     

高原富营养化湖泊杞麓湖微囊藻毒素分布特征、相关因子及其健康风险分析

杞麓湖作为典型的富营养化高原湖泊,其藻华暴发引发的微囊藻毒素(microcystins, MCs)污染问题会危害水生态安全并造成人体健康风险。为了评估杞麓湖流域MCs的秋冬季节污染现状以及健康风险情况,对湖内和7条主要入湖河流入湖口的表层水进行采样检测,分析MCs主要异构体的时空分布特征,研究MCs与水质和浮游植物等环境因子的关系,并通过人体非致癌健康风险评价MCs的风险等级。结果发现,MCs浓度自秋季到冬季呈下降趋势,秋季湖内胞内MCs(IMCs)占比超过99%,冬季IMCs与胞外MCs(EMCs)浓度接近。MC-RR和MC-LR是主要的MCs异构体类型,其中MC-RR在秋季浓度占比高于MC-LR和MC-YR,而冬季MC-LR最高。MCs与微囊藻密度等生物因子呈极显著正相关关系,与TN、TP和NH₃-N营养盐呈显著负相关关系。杞麓湖EMCs污染的风险指数范围为0.004~0.110,处于极低或低风险,冬季风险略高于秋季,因南岸入湖EMCs污染以及湖内IMCs释放带来的风险需要进一步关注。     

乌梁素海水体汞的分布特征及污染风险评估

于2011年1月采集乌梁素海表层水样,对湖水中重金属Hg含量进行分析.结合Hg的空间分布特征,利用单因子指数综合污染评价指数与健康风险评价模型对Hg污染程度与风险进行评估.结果表明,乌梁素海表层水体中Hg的平均浓度为1.04μg/L,所有监测点Hg的含量都超出地表水Ⅲ类标准和国家渔业用水标准,50%的监测点超出了地表水Ⅳ类标准.水体中Hg的分布模式与流域排污口位置、入湖口及水动力条件有一定关系,高值区域分布在入湖口相对集中的西北与东北部,湖泊南部与出口处的含量相对较低,处于中等水平.乌梁素海湖水中Hg的非致癌性污染物所致的健康危害风险度介于0.75×10-9~2.15×10-9a-1之间,Hg所致的健康危害风险度的贡献率在71.43%~92.44%之间,表明Hg污染水平与健康风险都较高,应该给予特别关注.     

Risk tolerance measure for decision-making in fuzzy analysis: a health risk assessment perspective

In risk assessment studies it is important to determine how uncertain and imprecise knowledge should be included into the simulation and assessment models. Thus, proper evaluation of uncertainties has become a major concern in environmental and health risk assessment studies. Previously, researchers have used probability theory, more commonly Monte Carlo analysis, to incorporate uncertainty analysis in health risk assessment studies. However, in conducting probabilistic health risk assessment, risk analyst often suffers from lack of data or the presence of imperfect or incomplete knowledge about the process modeled and also the process parameters. Fuzzy set theory is a tool that has been used in propagating imperfect and incomplete information in health risk assessment studies. Such analysis result in fuzzy risks which are associated with membership functions. Since possibilistic health risk assessment studies are relatively new, standard procedures for decision-making about the acceptability of the resulting fuzzy risk with respect to a crisp standard set by the regulatory agency are not fully established. In this paper, we are providing a review of several available approaches which may be used in decision-making. These approaches involve defuzzification techniques, the possibility and the necessity measures. In this study, we also propose a new measure, the risk tolerance measure, which can be used in decision making. The risk tolerance measure provides an effective metric for evaluating the acceptability of a fuzzy risk with respect to a crisp compliance criterion. Fuzzy risks with different membership functions are evaluated with respect to a crisp compliance criterion by using the possibility, the necessity, and the risk tolerance measures and the results are discussed comparatively.     

Issues in sediment toxicity and ecological risk assessment

This paper is based on a facilitated Workshop and Roundtable Discussion of key issues in sediment toxicology and ecological risk assessment (ERA) as applied to sediments that was held at the Conference on Dredged Material Management: Options and Environmental Considerations. The issues addressed included how toxicity is defined and perceived, how it is measured, and how it should be used within the context of ERA to support management decisions. The following conclusions were reached regarding scientific considerations of these issues. Toxicity is a measure of hazard and not a risk per se. Thus, toxicity testing is a means but not the end to understand risks of sediments. Toxicity testing cannot presently be replaced by chemical analyses to define hazard. Toxicity test organisms need to be appropriate to the problem being addressed, and the results put into context relative to both reference and baseline comparisons to understand hazard. Use of toxicity tests in sediment ERAs requires appropriate endpoints and risk hypotheses, considering ecological not just statistical significance, and recognizing that hazard does not equate to risk. Toxicity should be linked to population and community response to support decision-making, assessing possible genotypic adaptations that can influence risk estimates, and addressing uncertainty. Additionally, several key scientific issues were identified to improve future sediment ERAs, including the need to improve basic understanding of ecological mechanisms and processes, recognition of variability in the assessment process, and an improved focus and ability to assess risks to populations and communities.     

Earthquake risk assessment of buildings accounting for human evacuation

A primary goal of earthquake engineering is to protect society from the possible negative consequences of future earthquakes. Conventionally, this goal has been achieved indirectly by reducing seismic damage of the built environment through better building codes, or more comprehensibly, by minimizing seismic risk. However, the effect that building damage has on occupants is not explicitly taken into account while designing infrastructure. Consequently, this paper introduces a conceptual framework and numerical algorithm to assess earthquake risk on building occupants during seismic events, considering the evacuation process of the structure. The framework combines probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, inelastic structural response analysis and damage assessment, and couples these results with the response of evacuating agents. The results are cast as probability distributions of variables that measure the overall performance of the system (e.g., evacuation times, number of injured people, and repair costs) for specific time windows. As a testbed, the framework was applied to the response of a reinforced concrete frame building that exemplifies the use of all steps of the methodology. The results suggest that this seismic risk evaluation framework of structural systems that combine the response of a physical model with human agents can be extended to a wide variety of other situations, including the assessment of mitigation actions in communities and people to improve their earthquake resilience. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

2D Monte Carlo versus 2D Fuzzy Monte Carlo health risk assessment

Risk estimates can be calculated using crisp estimates of the exposure variables (i.e., contaminant concentration, contact rate, exposure frequency and duration, body weight, and averaging time). However, aggregate and cumulative exposure studies require a better understanding of exposure variables and uncertainty and variability associated with them. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies use probability distributions for one or more variables of the risk equation in order to quantitatively characterize variability and uncertainty. Two-dimensional Monte Carlo Analysis (2D MCA) is one of the advanced modeling approaches that may be used to conduct PRA studies. In this analysis the variables of the risk equation along with the parameters of these variables (for example mean and standard deviation for a normal distribution) are described in terms of probability density functions (PDFs). A variable described in this way is called a second order random variable. Significant data or considerable insight to uncertainty associated with these variables is necessary to develop the appropriate PDFs for these random parameters. Typically, available data and accuracy and reliability of such data are not sufficient for conducting a reliable 2D MCA. Thus, other theories and computational methods that propagate uncertainty and variability in exposure and health risk assessment are needed. One such theory is possibility analysis based on fuzzy set theory, which allows the utilization of incomplete information (incomplete information includes vague and imprecise information that is not sufficient to generate probability distributions for the parameters of the random variables of the risk equation) together with expert judgment. In this paper, as an alternative to 2D MCA, we are proposing a 2D Fuzzy Monte Carlo Analysis (2D FMCA) to overcome this difficulty. In this approach, instead of describing the parameters of PDFs used in defining the variables of the risk equation as random variables, we describe them as fuzzy numbers. This approach introduces new concepts and risk characterization methods. In this paper we provide a comparison of these two approaches relative to their computational requirements, data requirements and availability. For a hypothetical case, we also provide a comperative interpretation of the results generated.     

Organotin contamination in seafood and its implication for human health risk in Hong Kong

Organotins (OTs) have caused widespread adverse effects on marine organisms, while they can also induce health problems to humans via consumption of contaminated seafood. This study aimed to quantify the tissue concentrations of OTs in 11 seafood species in Hong Kong, and assess the human health risk for consuming these species. The tongue sole Paraplagusia blochii had the highest concentration of total OTs. Triphenyltin (TPT) accounted for 56–97% of total OTs. The highest hazard quotient (HQ) for TPT was 1.41 in P. blochii, while the HQs for butyltins were much less than 1. The results indicated that it is likely to have certain health risks for consuming P. blochii due to its high TPT contamination. Therefore, TPT should be a priority pollutant of concern. Appropriate management actions should be taken to control its use and release in the region in order to safeguard the marine ecosystem and human health.     

鄱阳湖流域上游铀尾矿库周边水体中铬形态及健康风险评估

以鄱阳湖流域上游铀尾矿库周边水体为研究对象,在研究铬(Cr)污染程度的基础上,采用水文地球化学模拟软件PHREEQC计算Cr各不同赋存形态的浓度,讨论不同条件下Cr形态的变换规律以及健康风险评价,对研究水体中Cr生物有效性具有实际意义.结果表明:铀尾矿区排放水、渗滤水、浅层地下水中Cr浓度均未超出相关标准值.水体中Cr主要赋存形态大多为Cr(Ⅲ)的水解产物Cr(OH)²⁺和Cr(OH)₂⁺. pH和电子活度(pe)共同影响Cr在水体中的赋存形态,当pH=3～5时,以CrF²⁺为优势离子;当pH>5时,随pH递增,pe值对Cr赋存形态的影响增加,pe值增大,Cr(Ⅲ)水解产物浓度逐渐减少,而Cr(Ⅵ)氧化产物逐渐增加.浅层地下水中的Cr不会对人体产生致癌风险和非致癌风险,但当p H、pe变化时,Cr致癌风险系数均高于ICRP和USEPA推荐的最大可接受值.由于Cr(Ⅵ)的毒性远强于Cr(Ⅲ),故应密切关注水体中pe与pH值,避免污染加重.     

Distribution of heavy metals in water and sediment of an urban river in a developing country: A probabilistic risk assessment

River water and sediment embody environmental characteristics that give valuable eco-environmental information.Due to rapid industrialization,the aquatic environment of any urban river can be seriously polluted by heavy metals（HMs）.The global concern is caused by heavy metal pollution because of its potential harm to aquatic ecosystems and human health.In the Bhairab River,Bangladesh,surface sediment concentrations of globally alarming toxic metals such as arsenic（As）,chromium（Cr）,cadmium（Cd）,an...     

基于PSR模型的乌梁素海生态系统健康分区评价

在压力-状态-响应(Pressure-State-Response,PSR)模型的基础上,诊断了内蒙古乌梁素海不同湖区的生态系统健康状态.从湖泊生态环境特征、生态功能和社会环境3个方面筛选出25项诊断指标,在专家打分法的基础上,采用层次分析法确定每项指标的权重.根据湖区生态环境特征差异,将湖泊划分为Ⅰ、Ⅱ和Ⅲ3个不同的区域,分别诊断各个区域的健康状态.结果显示,乌梁素海生态系统综合健康指数在0.3~0.5之间,属于警戒或者较差的状态.Ⅰ、Ⅱ和Ⅲ区域的综合健康指数分别为0.3395、0.3866和0.4494.基于湖泊的生态系统健康存在区位上差异,为恢复湖泊健康提出有针对性的措施.本研究的开展,可为湖泊生态系统恢复和管理政策的制定提供科学依据.     

白洋淀表层沉积物中有机氯农药和全多氯联苯的分布特征及风险评估

为了解白洋淀表层沉积物中有机氯农药(OCPs)和多氯联苯(PCBs)的污染情况,采用改进的GC-μECD方法对白洋淀11处沉积物进行了20种OCPs和全部209种PCB单体的定量检测和分析.结果显示:白洋淀11个沉积物样品共检出10种OCPs和24种PCBs,∑OCPs和∑PCBs的含量范围分别为1.22～52.45 ng/g(DW)和nd～37.61 ng/g,在国内处于中等水平; OCPs组成中以HCHs和Dieldrin(狄氏剂)为主,分别占到∑OCPs的39.9%和31.5%,其中7个采样点的HCHs以林丹输入为主,4个采样点以工业六六六污染为主.DDTs检出率较低,来源主要为历史残留;检出的PCB单体以低氯联苯为主,其中一氯、二氯和三氯联苯占∑PCBs的64.73%;采用沉积物质量标准法进行生态风险评估,结果表明白洋淀地区沉积物中p,p'-DDD和∑PCBs生态风险较低,Dieldrin生态风险尚需关注,γ-HCH生态风险较高,不容忽视.     

巢湖湖区及主要出入湖河流表层沉积物重金属污染特征及风险评价

为了解巢湖湖区及主要出入湖河流沉积物中重金属的污染特征,对表层沉积物中重金属元素含量进行分析,基于地积累指数法、潜在生态风险指数法和沉积物质量基准法对沉积物污染风险进行评价,并对沉积物重金属来源进行初步分析.结果表明,河流沉积物中重金属的平均含量显著高于湖区,是湖区沉积物重金属含量的1.18~5.15倍,其中南淝河Cu、Zn、Pb、As和Hg含量较高,分别是背景值的3.53、16.98、3.98、5.84和23.11倍,西半湖Cu、Zn、Pb、Cd和Hg平均含量要高于东半湖,是全湖平均的1.04~1.45倍.地积累指数法和Hkanson潜在生态风险指数法评价结果均表明,Cd和Hg是主要的生态风险贡献因子,在所调查的表层沉积物中Cd和Hg数值分别为43.17~3870.94和29.96~924.57,已处于较大风险数值.此外,源分析结果表明,巢湖湖区及主要出入湖河流表层沉积物中Cu、Zn、Pb、Cr、Hg和As相关性显著,具有相似的来源,可能来自于工业废水与生活污水.     

Developing an Event Tree for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment at Vesuvius

Probabilistic characterizations of possible future eruptive scenarios at Vesuvius volcano are elaborated and organized within a risk-based framework. In the EXPLORIS project, a wide variety of topics relating to this basic problem have been pursued: updates of historical data, reinterpretation of previous geological field data and the collection of new fieldwork results, the development of novel numerical modelling codes and of risk assessment techniques have all been completed. To achieve coherence, many diverse strands of evidence had to be unified within a formalised structure, and linked together by expert knowledge. For this purpose, a Vesuvius ‘Event Tree’ (ET) was created to summarise in a numerical-graphical form, at different levels of detail, all the relative likelihoods relating to the genesis and style of eruption, development and nature of volcanic hazards, and the probabilities of occurrence of different volcanic risks in the next eruption crisis. The Event Tree formulation provides a logical pathway connecting generic probabilistic hazard assessment to quantitative risk evaluation. In order to achieve a complete parameterization for this all-inclusive approach, exhaustive hazard and risk models were needed, quantified with comprehensive uncertainty distributions for all factors involved, rather than simple ‘best-estimate’ or nominal values. Thus, a structured expert elicitation procedure was implemented to complement more traditional data analysis and interpretative approaches. The structure of the Vesuvius Event Tree is presented, and some of the data analysis findings and elicitation outcomes that have provided initial indicative probability distributions to be associated with each of its branches are summarized. The Event Tree extends from initiating volcanic eruption events and hazards right through to human impact and infrastructure consequences, with the complete tree and its parameterisation forming a quantitative synoptic framework for comprehensive hazard evaluation and mapping of risk impacts. The organization of the Event Tree allows easy updating, as and when new information becomes available.