A historical geomorphological approach to flood hazard management along the shore of an alpine lake (northern Italy)

A project to develop a flood hazard management plan along the east shore of Lago Maggiore was carried out. Several municipal territories along a coastal stretch have been analysed, identifying the rate of water rise and the limits of the submerged areas. This study discusses the overall methodological approach and presents the results for Porto Valtravaglia, as a significant case study. The first step was a detailed analysis of historical events to locate the most frequently damaged sites. Thousands of historical documents on past floods were collected, selected and validated, to map the most vulnerable sites. The second step was a morphological analysis of the studied coastal stretch. Multi-temporal aerial snap-shots were used and field surveys were conducted to verify the reliability of the historical data and to identify the critical hydraulic conditions along the shore. The third step was a review of the general urban development plans of the 17 studied municipalities. Aerophotogrammetric and cadastral maps were used to evidence and define the eight classes of land use destinations. In addition, the floodable areas were divided into three vulnerability and exposure categories considering different peculiarities of social and working life. Finally, using GIS spatial analysis tools, these data were compiled into risk maps and wielded as the municipal emergency plans’ baseline scenarios. For each studied municipality was hypothesised the alarm thresholds upon which were activated the flood emergency procedures.

     

Flash flood susceptibility mapping using a novel deep learning model based on deep belief network,back propagation and genetic algorithm

Flash floods are responsible for loss of life and considerable property damage in many countries.Flood susceptibility maps contribute to flood risk reduction in areas that are prone to this hazard if appropriately used by landuse planners and emergency managers.The main objective of this study is to prepare an accurate flood susceptibility map for the Haraz watershed in Iran using a novel modeling approach(DBPGA) based on Deep Belief Network(DBN) with Back Propagation(BP) algorithm optimized by the Genetic Algorithm(GA).For this task, a database comprising ten conditioning factors and 194 flood locations was created using the One-R Attribute Evaluation(ORAE) technique.Various well-known machine learning and optimization algorithms were used as benchmarks to compare the prediction accuracy of the proposed model.Statistical metrics include sensitivity,specificity accuracy, root mean square error(RMSE), and area under the receiver operatic characteristic curve(AUC) were used to assess the validity of the proposed model.The result shows that the proposed model has the highest goodness-of-fit(AUC = 0.989) and prediction accuracy(AUC = 0.985), and based on the validation dataset it outperforms benchmark models including LR(0.885), LMT(0.934), BLR(0.936), ADT(0.976), NBT(0.974), REPTree(0.811), ANFIS-BAT(0.944), ANFIS-CA(0.921), ANFIS-IWO(0.939), ANFIS-ICA(0.947), and ANFIS-FA(0.917).We conclude that the DBPGA model is an excellent alternative tool for predicting flash flood susceptibility for other regions prone to flash floods.     

Hydrological hazards in Russia: origin,classification, changes and risk assessment

Hydrological extreme events pose an imminent risk to society and economics. In this paper, various aspects of hydrological hazards in Russia are analysed at different scales of risk assessment. It is shown that the number of hydrological and meteorological hazards in Russia has been growing every year. The frequency of economic losses associated with extreme low flow in this century has increased by factor five compared to the last decade of the previous century. With regard to floods, an interesting spatial patter can be observed. On the one hand, the number of floods in the Asian part of the country has increased, whereas on the other hand, the number and intensity of floods in estuarine areas in the European part of Russia have significantly reduced since the middle of the twentieth century, especially in the 2000s. This decrease can be attributed to runoff flooding in the mouths of regulated rivers, with an effective system of flood and ice jam protection. The analysis shows that there is an 8–12-year periodicity in the number of flood occurrences and that flood surges have intensified over the last 110 years, especially on the European territory of Russia. An integrated index that accounts for flood hazards and socio-economic vulnerability was calculated for each region of Russia. A classification of flood risk was also developed, taking into account more than 20 hydrological and social–economic characteristics. Based on these characteristics, hazard and vulnerability maps for entire Russia were generated which can be used for water management and the development of future water resources plans.

     

Interaction between land-use change,flooding and human health in Metro Vancouver,Canada

Many regions of the world are experiencing an increase in frequency and intensity of floods. There has been increasing understanding among emergency preparedness and natural disaster planners that rapid urbanization is enhancing the risk from river flooding in urban areas. Many regions of Canada have been exposed to particularly severe floods over the course of the last few years, much of this due to land-use change. This study aims at understanding the risk of flooding for the City of Metro Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, which is located in the Fraser River Delta. The paper presents a fast, efficient and reliable method that can be used to produce vegetation maps from advanced very high resolution radiometer images and SPOT vegetation maps. A 10-day maximum normalized difference vegetation index maps were produced to assess the dynamics of the urbanization process in Vancouver. Remotely sensed data show a significant decrease in vegetation cover in the Metro Vancouver City between 1984 and 2012. The proposed method can be used as an effective tool for raising early land-use change awareness and assist with flood risk management. Flood risk management has a substantial impact on human health and well-being in urban areas, and this flood risk information will be used to assess the impact of flooding and explore the complex relationship between land-use change, urbanization, flooding and impact on urban dwellers.     

Spatially distributed rainfall information and its potential for regional landslide early warning systems

Hydrological extreme events pose an imminent risk to society and economics. In this paper, various aspects of hydrological hazards in Russia are analysed at different scales of risk assessment. It is shown that the number of hydrological and meteorological hazards in Russia has been growing every year. The frequency of economic losses associated with extreme low flow in this century has increased by factor five compared to the last decade of the previous century. With regard to floods, an interesting spatial patter can be observed. On the one hand, the number of floods in the Asian part of the country has increased, whereas on the other hand, the number and intensity of floods in estuarine areas in the European part of Russia have significantly reduced since the middle of the twentieth century, especially in the 2000s. This decrease can be attributed to runoff flooding in the mouths of regulated rivers, with an effective system of flood and ice jam protection. The analysis shows that there is an 8–12-year periodicity in the number of flood occurrences and that flood surges have intensified over the last 110 years, especially on the European territory of Russia. An integrated index that accounts for flood hazards and socio-economic vulnerability was calculated for each region of Russia. A classification of flood risk was also developed, taking into account more than 20 hydrological and social–economic characteristics. Based on these characteristics, hazard and vulnerability maps for entire Russia were generated which can be used for water management and the development of future water resources plans.     

Direct tangible damage assessment for regional snowmelt flood disasters with HJ-1 and HR satellite images: a case study of the Altay region,northern Xinjiang,China

Regional snowmelt flood disasters (RSFDs) can cause significant direct tangible damage which generally refers to the physical destruction due to direct contact with the flood water, such as damage to buildings, croplands, livestock, and infrastructure. Information about people, habitations, and infrastructure affected by the flood is essential for disaster responders and the humanitarian community to plan and coordinate emergency response activities. However, this direct tangible damage information obtained in the ground is limited, incomplete, contradictory, and sometimes impossible to obtain in a short time. Earth observation satellites help overcome operational uncertainties after the RSFDs. Here, we present an improved rapid direct tangible damage assessment model using HJ-1 and GF-1/2 satellite images. We selected the Altay region in northern Xinjiang, China, as the study area, and investigated a RSFD occurring in spring 2017. A series of HJ-1 and GF-1 images were used to track the flood extent over the duration of the disaster, and the maximum affected flood area was assigned as the area in which direct tangible damage occurred. Pre-disaster GF-2 images were then used to estimate direct tangible damage to habitations (2375 households and 6388 rooms), infrastructure (102 km of roads), and affected population (7125) in the flood area, which covered an area of 185,240 m². Our method is an effective approach for the design of rescue plans and disaster subsidy programs.     

Flood risk management in Central Viet Nam: challenges and potentials

This article explores the impacts of floods on the economy, environment, and society and tries to clarify the rural community’s coping mechanism to flood disasters in Central Viet Nam. It focuses on the social aspects of flood risk perception that shapes the responses to floods. The research findings revealed that flooding is an essential element for a coastal population, whose livelihood depend on productive functions of cyclical floods. The findings also revealed that floods, causing losses and damages, often inhibited economic development. The surveyed communities appeared to have evolved coping mechanisms to reduce the negative impacts of the floods, yet these coping mechanisms are under pressure due to environmental degradation. Integrated flood risk management is considered as a suitable paradigm for coping with flood disasters.

Risk Assessment,Emergency Preparedness and Response to Hazards: The Case of the 1997 Red River Valley Flood,Canada

The prevention and/or mitigation offlood disasters requires continual research, numerouscapital investment decisions, and high-qualitymaintenance and modifications of flood-controlstructures. In addition, institutional and privatepreparedness is needed. The experience offlood-control in North America has shown mixedoutcomes: while flood frequency has declined duringthe last few decades, the economic losses havecontinued to rise. Recent catastrophic floods havealso been linked to major structural interventions inthe region. The flood diversions may cause harmfuleffects upon the floodplain inhabitants by influencingflood levels in areas which are not normallyflood-prone. The increasing vulnerability of thefloodplain inhabitants poses new challenges and raisesquestions concerning the existing risk assessmentmethods, institutional preparedness and responses todisaster-related public emergencies, and local-levelpublic involvement in flood mitigation efforts.In the context of the catastrophic 1997 floods of theRed River Valley, Manitoba, Canada, this researchfocuses on two aspects of flood-related emergencygovernance and management: (i) the functions andeffectiveness of control structures, and (ii) theroles, responsibilities and effectiveness oflegislative and other operational measures. The studyconcludes that the flood-loss mitigation measures,both in terms of effects of control structures andinstitutional interventions for emergency evacuation,were not fully effective for ensuring the well-beingand satisfaction of floodplain inhabitants. Althoughorganizational preparedness and mobilization to copewith the 1997 flood emergency was considerable, theirsuccess during the onset of the flood event waslimited. Lack of communication and understandingbetween institutions, a reluctance to implementup-to-date regulations, and minimal publicparticipation in the emergency decision-making processall contributed to the difficulties experienced byfloodplain inhabitants.     

The evolution analysis of flood and drought in Huai River Basin of China based on monthly precipitation characteristics

Based on the daily precipitation data of 38 weather stations in the Huai River Basin from 1961 to 2010, this study used SPI index, P-III curve to determine the flood/drought years, under what situations for droughts and floods easily happen, and to analyze the evolution law of flood and drought during inter-annual and intra-annual based on the characteristic of monthly precipitation. The results showed that: (1) annual rainfall of the Huai River Basin presented decreasing trend, maximum rainfall appeared from June to August, and multi-year average precipitation increased gradually from north to south; (2) the variation of monthly precipitation during flood years was more severe than other typical years, and precipitation in drought years showed nearly 50 % decline compared with normal years; (3) high rainfall of flood years was mainly caused by the increase in rainfall in flood season, and the strategy of flood control and drought relief was “short-term flood prevention and long-term drought relief”; (4) while precipitation of most months in drought year was reduced, the relevant strategies “annual basin-wide of long-term drought prevention” should be carried out; (5) combination events of floods and droughts occurred frequently. Persistent drought dominated in spring and summer while droughts and floods that happened alternately were mainly in summer and autumn.     

Identification of homogenous regions in Gorganrood basin (Iran) for the purpose of regionalization

Estimation of flood in basins with poor condition of hydrometric stations as in quantity and quality is a dominant problem around the world, mainly in developing country where lack of funds and human resources cause more limitation in number of gauging stations. One of the areas that experience frequent floods and also suffer from small number of stations in Iran is Gorganrood basin. So there is a great need for the estimation and prediction of runoff in this area to prevent any future floods. Due to insufficient station in this area, direct prediction of flood is not applicable. Regional flood frequency analysis is a practical and widely used solution for these situations, which involves the identification of homogenous regions. Gorganrood region was hydrologically homogenized according to the extracted parameters that influence the floods. One of these parameters was Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) driven from MODIS images. Curvature is another parameter that relates to topographic attributes. From factor analysis, the most appropriate variables were selected. According to these parameters (NDVI, curvature, area, slope…), the regions were classified into homogenous regions. For the purpose of homogenization, hierarchical (wards) clustering, fuzzy clustering and Kohonen method were applied. L-moment technique was used for the investigation of the results. The heterogeneity measure for one of the groups (Group 1) was more than two; therefore some modifications were applied. The region was grouped into two homogenous subregions. All of the clustering methods showed same results. The models showed that class 4 of NDVI is influential on flood in some return periods. The resulted models can be applied in future studies in different aspects of practical hydrology.     

A hybrid clustering-fusion methodology for land subsidence estimation

In many parts of Canada, limited data are available for hydrodynamic model inputs, and the ability to generate quality flood grids through 1D, 2D or 3D methods is nonviable. In this paper, the capability of simplified flood models, which rely solely on digital terrain models (DTMs), was explored to assess the quality and speed of their results. Results were validated against historic floods in two locations. Three non-physics-based simplified conceptual flood models were tested: (1) planar method, (2) inclined plane and (3) height above nearest drainage network (HAND) model. The accuracy and performance were evaluated using three criteria: inundation extent, water depth and computation time. Findings show that the HAND model is the best predictor of inundation extent, with Probability of Detection and Critical Success Index being higher than 0.90 in both study areas. Though the preprocessing time for the HAND model is lengthy, once completed, the time to simulate flooding at a variety of water levels is rapid, making this model the most suitable choice for web-based, on-demand flood inundation mapping. Knowledge of the fit of these flood models and associated uncertainty can be helpful to emergency managers such that they can better understand exposure and vulnerability while preparing flood response plans.     

Geospatial modelling of flood susceptibility pattern in a subtropical area of West Bengal,India

Flood hazards are the most destructive among all natural disasters and are a constant threat to human’s life and property. Effective disaster risk reduction strategies can be improved by geospatial approach in the way of producing information and knowledge that are useful to plan truly effective actions for the protection from floods. This research aims to develop a quantified predictive model of flood susceptibility in the Ghatal and Tamluk subdivision of Medinipur district of West Bengal, India, by means of empirically selected and weighted spatial predictors of flood. The weighted prediction model is used to quantify the spatial associations between individual geospatial factors within the flood inundated study area. Yule’s coefficient and distance distribution analysis are used to assign weights to individual geo-factors, and finally weighted spatial predictors are integrated to a multi-class index overlay analysis to derive the spatially explicit predictive model of flood susceptibility. The resultant susceptibility model reveals that approximately 32.35 and 52.99% of the total study areas (3261.45 km²) are under the category of high-to-moderate flood susceptible zone. Quantitative results of this study could be integrated into the policy process in the formulation of local and national government plans for the future flood mitigation management and also to develop appropriate infrastructure in order to protect the lives and properties of the common people of the Medinipur district.     

Flood Events in the Rhine Basin: Genesis,Influences and Mitigation

The paper analyses the hydrological regime of the Rhine catchment,the genesis of recent floods,and recommends some research and practical activities to mitigate flood damage. The catchment of the Rhine River can be divided into four main subcatchments: the alpine region with the Aare River as its main tributary and downstream the lower mountain regions of the tributaries Neckar, Main and Moselle. These four basins generate very different hydrographs. Due to the geographical conditions, the average discharge maximums shift from summer to winter downstream the Rhine. Moreover, the spatial and temporalprecipitation patterns of each river have a strong influence on the individual flood events. Some recent extraordinary floods are used to illustrate the parameters that have influenced these events.A strong relationship between recent climate change observationsand the occurrence of flood levels cannot be proven. However, the consequences of human interventions and the resulting changes to the river system (the Rhine and its tributaries) for the hydrograph can be quantified precisely.The influences of different land-use and climatic scenarios on flood conditions in the Rhine basin have not yet been separately identified. Thus, the Dutch-German project LAHoR was established. The primary aim of this project is to giveadvice for the ``Action Plan on Flood Defence' of the International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (IKSR). In this plan a multidisciplinary approach to mitigating floods is suggested.It is anticipated that the plan willgenerate synergistic effects between flood prevention, water management, regional planning, agriculture, forestry and ecological demands.     

Morphometric analysis and flash floods of Wadi Sudr and Wadi Wardan, Gulf of Suez, Egypt: using digital elevation model

Application of geographic information systems and remote sensing are a powerful tool for the assessment of risk and management of flood hazards. By using these techniques to extract new drainage network with more details to prepare natural hazard maps which may help decision makers and planners to put suitable solutions reducing the impact of these hazards. Ras Sudr city and surrounding area had been attacked by flash floods of Wadi Sudr and Wadi Wardan which are nearly perpendicular to the eastern side of the Gulf of Suez, Egypt, and many infrastructures had destroyed. GIS techniques and remote sensing are used to find the interrelation between the morphometric parameters by using statistical correlation to determine the area under varying flood conditions. The results of morphometric parameters and the new data of last flood which occurred on 17-18th January 2010 indicate that the two basins are threatened by the risk of flash floods and Wadi Wardan is more risky than Wadi Sudr.     

The Upper Middle Rhine Valley as a risk area

The Upper Middle Rhine Valley, granted the status of a World Heritage site, is well known for its unique inner narrow valley of Quaternary age with its historical legacy of numerous medieval castles and old towns. Less known is that this has always been a risk area of floods and gravitative mass movements. Up to the recent past, mainly ice floods caused enormous damage. The inhabitants of the valley were well aware that they lived in a risk area, but they had learned to handle the flood hazard. With the demise of ice floods over the last 40 years, due to climate change and because of the additional heating of the river water by power plants, the awareness of flood hazards has been much diminished, in contrast to that of potential damage by rockfalls and landslides which were also much feared in the past, though at the local level only. Still in the people’s memory is the Kaub catastrophe of March 10, 1876, when 28 persons were killed by a landslide. Nowadays, even minor rockfalls are a major threat, as they will affect the much-used traffic lines on both banks of the river, in particular the railroads. Therefore, since 2002, on behalf of German Rail (Deutsche Bahn, DB), all problematic slopes have been protected by costly steel-ring nets, although they are an aesthetic problem by UNESCO standards. The feeling of absolute safety created among the public is only subjective, though, as planners are well aware of. Moreover, the impact of modern climate change on slope stability is nearly unknown. Therefore, it is still necessary to develop a risk map for the narrow valley, with emphasis on gravitational hazards.     

Towards Formulation of a Space-borne System for Early Warning of Floods: Can Cost-Effectiveness Outweigh Prediction Uncertainty?

The three most important components necessary for functioning of an operational flood warning system are: (1) a rainfall measuring system; (2) a soil moisture updating system; and, (3) a surface discharge measuring system. Although surface based networks for these systems can be largely inadequate in many parts of the world, this inadequacy particularly affects the tropics, which are most vulnerable to flooding hazards. Furthermore, the tropical regions comprise developing countries lacking the financial resources for such surface-based monitoring. The heritage of research conducted on evaluating the potential for measuring discharge from space has now morphed into an agenda for a mission dedicated to space-based surface discharge measurements. This mission juxtaposed with two other upcoming space-based missions: (1) for rainfall measurement (Global Precipitation Measurement, GPM), and (2) soil moisture measurement (Hydrosphere State, HYDROS), bears promise for designing a fully space-borne system for early warning of floods. Such a system, if operational, stands to offer tremendous socio-economic benefit to many flood-prone developing nations of the tropical world. However, there are two competing aspects that need careful assessment to justify the viability of such a system: (1) cost-effectiveness due to surface data scarcity; and (2) flood prediction uncertainty due to uncertainty in the remote sensing measurements. This paper presents the flood hazard mitigation opportunities offered by the assimilation of the three proposed space missions within the context of these two competing aspects. The discussion is cast from the perspective of current understanding of the prediction uncertainties associated with space-based flood prediction. A conceptual framework for a fully space-borne system for early-warning of floods is proposed. The need for retrospective validation of such a system on historical data comprising floods and its associated socio-economic impact is stressed. This proposal for a fully space-borne system, if pursued through wide interdisciplinary effort as recommended herein, promises to enhance the utility of the three space missions more than what their individual agenda can be expected to offer.     

Analysis of flood vulnerability and assessment of the impacts in coastal zones of Bangladesh due to potential sea-level rise

The 4th IPCC report highlights the increased vulnerability of the coastal areas from floods due to sea-level rise (SLR). The existing coastal flood control structures in Bangladesh are not adequate to adapt these changes and new measures are urgently necessary. It is important to determine the impacts of SLR on flooding to analyse the performance of the existing structures and corresponding impact to plan for suitable adaptation and mitigation measures to reduce the impacts of floods on coastal zone. The study aims to develop a comprehensive understanding of the possible effects of SLR on floods in the coastal zone of Bangladesh. A hydrodynamic model, which is a combination of surface and river parts, was utilized for flood simulation. The tool was applied under a range of future scenarios, and results indicate both spatial variability of risk and changes in flood characteristics between now and under SLR. Estimated impact on population, infrastructure and transportation is also exposed. These types of impact estimation would be of value to flood plain management authorities to minimize the socio-economic impact.     

Analysis of non climatic origins of floods in the downstream part of the Kura River,Azerbaijan

Over the past century, there is an increased contribution of non climatic factors to the flood formation processes in the Kura River. Non climatic factors of floods refer to factors that are related to reductions in channel capacity and result in floods. More recently, there are numerous non climatic factors occurring in and around the Kura River basin that have increased the frequency of floods. Sediment accumulation in the riverbed over a long period of time has led to the reduction of channel capacity and has raised the elevation of the riverbed above the surrounding territory. It is illustrated that construction of dykes and levees do not actually prevent flooding, where hydrologic connections between groundwater and surface water are high, since infiltrated waters from channel results in raising of ground waters, causing an effect of “underground flood.” Since underground floods occur when water going from channels raises the level of ground waters, there is an urgent need to carefully investigate the groundwater–surface water connections. With the purpose of predicting floods, the authors suggest defining maximal acceptable flows (MAFs) rather than channel capacities. Results show that high rates of hydraulic conductivity of soils will decrease MAF rates. MAF computations before high-water season allow for further regulation of outlets further downstream in order to prevent flooding and enable flood forecasting. While the study focuses on a specific region, the overall approach suggested is generic and may be applied elsewhere.     

Contribution de l'hydrogéomorphologie à l'évaluation du risque d'inondation : le cas du Midi méditerranéen français

The hydrogeomorphological method for delimiting flood risk zones in France was developed some twenty years ago. It is based on a simple principle: the outer limits of a stream's flood plain constitute the outer envelope of past floods. These limits are determined with the use of aerial photographs and field surveys of micro-topography as well as analyses of deposit granulometry and colour. Indications of present or past land use (fields, location and distribution of archaeological sites, houses and farm buildings, roads) are also useful. This field-based method long remained ignored, but being reliable, easy to use and inexpensive, it has now been incorporated into the package of methods recommended by French risk-prevention plans (PPRI). The many recent catastrophes that have occurred over the past fifteen years in the Mediterranean regions of southern France demonstrated both the inadequacy of the hydrological–hydraulic method and the reliability of the hydrogeomorphological method, which can, however, be improved by setting observations for the present period against information on the more ancient Holocene evolution of flood plains. To cite this article: J.-L. Ballais et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).