Recent changes of the thermohaline circulation in the subpolar North Atlantic

Time series of hydrographic sections in the northern North Atlantic from the period 1990 to 2004 are analyzed for changes in the characteristics and distribution of water masses that are involved in the thermohaline circulation (THC). During the 1990s, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) alternates from a positive phase (strong westerlies) to a negative phase (weak westerlies). The reduced ocean heat loss confined the convection in the Labrador Sea to the upper 1,200 m, generating a new salinity minimum layer characterizing the Upper Labrador Sea Water (ULSW), and led to a warming and salinization of the older LSW below due to lateral mixing. The Lower LSW, formed in the first half of the 1990s, spread in the subpolar gyre and reached the Newfoundland and Irminger basins after about 1 to 2 years, where the associated isopycnal doming contributed to eastward frontal shifts in the upper layer. After 5 and 6 years, it arrived in the Iceland and West European basins, respectively. The collapse of the isopycnal dome in the Labrador Sea, associated with the drainage of the Lower LSW, resulted in a slowing of the cyclonic circulation of the subpolar gyre. This was accompanied in the upper layer by a westward shift of the southeastern extension of the gyre and a northward advection of warm and saline subtropical water in its eastern part, which finally reached the Labrador Sea after about 7 years. In the upper layer of the Labrador Sea, the advection of warm and saline water dominated over the heat loss to the atmosphere and the freshwater gain from melting ice and precipitation in the NAO-low period, so that no accumulation of freshwater but an increase of the heat and salt contents were observed, as in the whole eastern part of the subpolar gyre. Within 1 to 2 years after the drop of the NAO in the winter of 1995/1996, the Subarctic (Subpolar) Front shifted northward and westward north of about 50°N, favored by the retreat of the low-salinity tongue extending eastward from the southern Labrador Sea, and it shifted southward and eastward in the Newfoundland Basin. Therefore, the enhanced northward advection of subtropical waters in the northeastern North Atlantic is balanced by the enhanced southward advection of subarctic waters, including Lower LSW in the Newfoundland Basin, indicating a strong response of the gyre component of the THC.     

On the focal mechanism of the 26.05.1975 North Atlantic event contribution from tsunami modeling

The 1975 May 26 earthquake, of magnitude Ms = 7.9, occurred in the North Atlantic close to the Azores Archipelago. Its epicentre, as given by US Geological Survey, was 17.5° W, 35.9° N, 200 km south of the Gloria Fault. Several authors determined the focal mechanism as a dextral strike-slip event with no significant dip-slip component, compatible with the relative motion between Eurasia and Nubia plates but away from the presumed plate boundary. The 1975 earthquake generated a tsunami of small amplitude, recorded at the Portuguese tide-gauge network, in Spain and Northern Africa. The peculiar location of the earthquake and tsunami source and the generation of a noticeable tsunami were already discussed by several authors, but up to now, no direct modelling of the tsunami generation and propagation was made to judge the set of source solutions obtained by seismological analysis. In this paper, we present tsunami simulations, backward ray tracing and forward non-linear shallow water simulations using data from Iberia and Azores and Northern Africa. We show that a good fit between observed data and synthetic waveforms can be obtained with a focal mechanism with no significant dip-slip component, favouring its interpretation as almost pure dextral strike-slip event located in an old fracture zone south of Gloria Fault.     

Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on streamflow in Western Iran

The Middle East region, where arid and semi‐arid regions occupy most of the land, is extremely vulnerable to any natural or anthropogenic reductions in available water resources. Much of the observed interannual‐decadal variability in Middle Eastern streamflow is physically linked to a large‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In this work, the relationship between the NAO index and the seasonal and annual streamflows in the west of Iran was statistically examined during the last four decades. The correlations were constructed for two scenarios (with and without time lag). The associations between the annual and seasonal streamflows and the simultaneous NAO index were found to be poor and insignificant. The possibility of streamflow forecasting was also explored, and the results of lag correlations revealed that streamflow responses at the NAO signal with two and three seasons delays. The highest Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.379 was found between the spring NAO index and the autumn streamflow series at Taghsimab station, indicating that roughly 14% of the variance in the streamflow series is associated with NAO forcing. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Internal-wave-induced and double-diffusive nutrient fluxes to the nutrient-consuming surface layer in the oligotrophic subtropical North Atlantic

In the literature, an inconsistency exists between estimates of biotically-effected carbon export inferred from large-scale geochemical studies (Jenkins 1982; 47 gC m^–2 a^–1) and local measurements of turbulent nutrient supply (Lewis et al. 1986; 4 gC m^–2 a^–1) in the eastern subtropical North Atlantic. Nutrient supply to the upper ocean by turbulent mixing is reexamined using local standard oceanographic measurements and high-resolution vertical profiles of nutrients averaged over a large region directly comparable to that investigated by Jenkins (1982).Responsible Editor: Franciscus Colijn     

The Sumatra tsunami of 26 December 2004 as observed in the North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans

The M _w=9.3 megathrust earthquake of December 26, 2004 off the coast of Sumatra in the Indian Ocean generated a catastrophic tsunami that caused widespread damage in coastal areas and left more than 226,000 people dead or missing. The Sumatra tsunami was accurately recorded by a large number of tide gauges throughout the world's oceans. This paper examines the amplitudes, frequencies and wave train structure of tsunami waves recorded by tide gauges located more than 20,000 km from the source area along the Pacific and Atlantic coasts of North America.     

The influence of initial conditions and open boundary conditions on shelf circulation in a 3D ocean-shelf model of the North East Atlantic

Data from climatology (World Ocean Atlas) and two large scale operational ocean models (Forecasting Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM), UK Met. Office and the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM), US Naval Research Laboratory) are used to give initial and open boundary conditions for a northeast Atlantic implementation of the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Model System (POLCOMS). We study the effects of using the different datasets on the temperature fields and the circulation. On the continental shelf, comparisons of POLCOMS output with Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer sea surface temperature data suggest that the effect of using different ocean model initial and boundary conditions is small and that, after 15 months of model time, the impact of the different initial conditions is negligible. Stronger evidence of influence is seen in the deeper oceanic regions of the domain. Volume fluxes through sections governing flow into and out of the North Sea, through the Irish Sea and along the shelf edge show that the impact of the different boundary conditions is small on the shelf but significant elsewhere. These results are contrasted with the use of climatology to assess the value of these Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment ocean model products.     

Time variations of the relationships between the North Atlantic Oscillation and European winter temperature and precipitation

The degree of stationarity of relationships between the NAO index and long European temperature and precipitation series in winter is quantified by running correlations with a time window of 31 years at 29 and 27 stations in Europe, respectively. They indicate major nonstationarities in the NAO-to-surface climate relationships at most stations. The temporal course most common for correlations with temperature is a slight change prior to about 1950, followed by an increase; for precipitation, a typical course is a decrease in the first half of the 20^th century, followed by an increase. The temporal variations in correlations do not result from the presence of trends in the time series. The periods of high correlations with temperature are accompanied with an eastward shift of both NAO action centres; the eastward shift is thus at least partly responsible for the time variations in correlations. huth@ufa.cas.cz     

Interannual variability of Gulf Stream warm-core rings in response to the North Atlantic Oscillation

Analysis of a quality-controlled database of Gulf Stream warm-core rings (WCRs) between 75° and 50°W during 1978–1999 demonstrates a significant correlation between WCR occurrences and variations in large-scale atmospheric forcing related to the state of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The mechanisms for linking the NAO with the rate of WCR occurrences are two-fold: (1) the influence of the NAO on Gulf Stream (GS) position, which could affect the interaction of the Gulf Stream with the New England Seamounts chain and thus allow for a higher/lower number of WCR occurrences; (2) the NAO-induced eddy kinetic energy (EKE) variability in the Gulf Stream region (GSR), which is indicative of the baroclinic instability processes necessary for WCR formation. Variability in GS movement is studied by analyzing annual mean positions of the Gulf Stream North Wall obtained from satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) frontal charts. Response of GSR EKE to fluctuations in the state of the NAO is examined with a numerical simulation of the North Atlantic basin from 1980–1999. The North Atlantic basin is simulated using a 1/6°-resolution eddy-resolving Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) model that spins up with Southampton Oceanography Center (SOC) ocean-atmosphere atlas-derived atmospheric forcing fields. Model-derived EKE estimates are observed to be in good agreement with TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter-based EKE estimates as well as with results from other modeling studies for the North Atlantic basin. We suggest that lateral movement of the GS may not be the primary mechanism causing variation in the rate of WCR occurrences, because GS position is observed to respond at a lag of one year, whereas annual rates of WCR occurrences respond at 0-year lag to the NAO. Based on results from numerical simulations of the North Atlantic basin, adjustment to NAO-induced wind forcing is seen to impact the GSR EKE intensity and possibly the related baroclinic instability structure of the GS at 0-year lag. These results suggest that NAO-induced interannual variability in GSR EKE is the most likely mechanism affecting WCR occurrences. Numerical simulations show that high (low) phases in the state of the NAO exhibit higher (lower) EKE in the GSR, providing a greater (lesser) source of baroclinic instability to the GS front, possibly resulting in higher (lower) occurrences of WCRs.     

Mantle thermal structure and active upwelling during continental breakup in the North Atlantic

Seismic reflection and refraction data acquired on four transects spanning the Southeast Greenland rifted margin and Greenland–Iceland Ridge (GIR) provide new constraints on mantle thermal structure and melting processes during continental breakup in the North Atlantic. Maximum igneous crustal thickness varies along the margin from >30 km in the near-hotspot zone (<500 km from the hotspot track) to 18 km in the distal zone (500–1100 km). Magmatic productivity on summed conjugate margins of the North Atlantic decreases through time from 1800±300 to 600±50 km³/km/Ma in the near-hotspot zone and from 700±200 to 300±50 km³/km/Ma in the distal zone. Comparison of our data with the British/Faeroe margins shows that both symmetric and asymmetric conjugate volcanic rifted margins exist. Joint consideration of crustal thickness and mean crustal seismic velocity suggests that along-margin changes in magmatism are principally controlled by variations in active upwelling rather than mantle temperature. The thermal anomaly (ΔT) at breakup was modest (100–125°C), varied little along the margin, and transient. Data along the GIR indicate that the potential temperature anomaly (125±50°C) and upwelling ratio (4 times passive) of the Iceland hotspot have remained roughly constant since 56 Ma. Our results are consistent with a plume–impact model, in which (1) a plume of radius 300 km and ΔT of 125°C impacted the margin around 61 Ma and delivered warm material to distal portions of the margin; (2) at breakup (56 Ma), the lower half of the plume head continued to feed actively upwelling mantle into the proximal portion of the margin; and (3) by 45 Ma, both the remaining plume head and the distal warm layer were exhausted, with excess magmatism thereafter largely confined to a narrow (<200 km radius) zone immediately above the Iceland plume stem. Alternatively, the warm upper mantle layer that fed excess magmatism in the distal portion of the margin may have been a pre-existing thermal anomaly unrelated to the plume.     

Interdecadal change of the linkage between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific

The relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) and the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific(WNPTCF) in summer is investigated by use of observation data. It is found that their linkage appears to have an interdecadal change from weak connection to strong connection. During the period of 1948–1977, the NAO was insignificantly correlated to the WNPTCF. However, during the period of 1980–2009, they were significantly correlated with stronger(weaker) NAO corresponding to more(fewer) tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific. The possible reason for such a different relationship between the NAO and the WNPTCF during the former and latter periods is further analyzed from the perspective of large-scale atmospheric circulations. When the NAO was stronger than normal in the latter period, an anomalous cyclonic circulation prevailed in the lower troposphere of the western North Pacific and the monsoon trough was intensified, concurrent with the eastward-shifting western Pacific subtropical high as well as anomalous low-level convergence and high-level divergence over the western North Pacific. These conditions favor the genesis and development of tropical cyclones, and thus more tropical cyclones appeared over the western North Pacific. In contrast, in the former period, the impact of the NAO on the aforementioned atmospheric circulations became insignificant, thereby weakening its linkage to the WNPTCF. Further study shows that the change of the wave activity flux associated with the NAO during the former and latter periods may account for such an interdecadal shift of the NAO–WNPTCF relationship.     

Relationship between zonal position of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Euro-Atlantic blocking events and its possible effect on the weather over Europe

The North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) exhibited a marked eastward shift in the mid-1970 s. Observations show that the extreme weather events in Europe have emerged frequently in the past decades. In this paper, based upon the daily NAO index, we have calculated the frequency of in-situ NAO events in winter during 1950-2011 by defining the Eastern-type NAO(ENAO) and Western-type NAO(WNAO) events according to its position at the east(west) of 10°W. Then, the composites of the blocking frequency, temperature and precipitation anomalies for different types of NAO events are performed. Results show that the frequency of Euro-Atlantic blocking events is distributed along the northwest-southeast(southwest-northeast) direction for the negative(positive) phase. Two blocking action centers in Greenland and European continent are observed during the negative phase while one blocking action center over south Europe is seen for the positive phase. The action center of blocking events tends to shift eastward as the NAO is shifted toward the European continent. Moreover, the eastern-type negative phase(ENAO) events are followed by a sharp decline of surface air temperature over Europe(especially in central, east, and south Europe), which have a wider and stronger impact on the weather over European continent than the western-type negative phase(WNAO) events do. A double- branched structure of positive precipitation anomalies is seen for the negative phase event, besides strong positive precipitation anomalies over south Europe for ENAO event. The eastern-type and western-type positive phase(ENAO+ and WNAO+) can lead to warming over Europe. A single-branched positive precipitation anomaly dominant in central and north Europe is seen for positive phase events.     

Orographic distillation and spatio‐temporal variations of stable isotopes in precipitation in the North Atlantic

Little is known about the spatial and temporal variability of the stable isotopic composition of precipitation in the North Atlantic and its relationship to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and anthropogenic climate change. The islands of the Azores archipelago are uniquely positioned in the middle of the North Atlantic Ocean to address this knowledge gap. A survey of spatial and temporal variability of the stable isotope composition of precipitation in Azores is discussed using newly presented analyses along with Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation data. The collected precipitation samples yield a new local meteoric water line (δ²H = 7.1 * δ¹⁸O + 8.46) for the Azores region and the North Atlantic Ocean. The annual isotopic mean of precipitation shows a small range for the unweighted and precipitation mass‐weighted δ¹⁸O‐H₂O values. Results show an inverse relation between the monthly δ¹⁸O‐H₂O and the amount of precipitation, which increases in elevation and into the interior of the island. Higher amounts of precipitation (from convective storm systems) do not correspond to the most depleted values of stable isotopes in precipitation. Precipitation shows an orographic effect with depleted δ¹⁸O‐H₂O values related to the Rayleigh effect. Monthly δ¹⁸O‐H₂O values for individual precipitation sampling stations show little relationship to air temperature. Results show a local source of moisture during the summer with the characteristics of the first vapour condensate. The stable isotope composition of precipitation is strongly correlated to the NAO index, and δ¹⁸O‐H₂O values show a statistically significantly trend towards enrichment since 1962 coincident with the increased air temperature and relative humidity due to climate change. Results are in line with observations of increasing sea surface temperature and relative humidity.     

Reassembling the Paleogene–Eocene North Atlantic igneous province: New paleomagnetic constraints from the Isle of Mull, Scotland

The paleomagnetic data sets from the British Tertiary Igneous Province (BTIP) have recently been criticized as being unreliable and discordant with data from elsewhere in the North Atlantic Igneous Province (NAIP) [Riisager et al. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 201 (2002) 261–276; Riisager et al. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 214 (2003) 409–425]. We offer new paleomagnetic data for the extensive lava flow sequence on the Isle of Mull, Scotland, and can confirm the paleomagnetic pole positions emanating from important earlier studies. Our new north paleomagnetic pole position for Eurasia at 59 ± 0.2 Ma has latitude 73.3°N, longitude 166.2°E (dp/dm = 5.2/7.0).A re-evaluation and an inter-comparison of the paleomagnetic database emanating from the NAIP were carried out to test for sub-province consistency. We find a general agreement between the Eurasian part of NAIP (BTIP and Faeroes) and East Greenland data. However a compilation of West Greenland data displays a large and unexplained dispersion. We speculate on if this is related to different sense of block rotation of the Tertiary West Greenland constituents. Combining all data from the NAIP constituents, give a pole position at 75.0°N, 169.9°E (N = 25, K = 84.3, A₉₅ = 3.2) in Eurasian reference frame.     

A stratigraphic network across the Subtropical Front in the central South Atlantic: Multi-parameter correlation of magnetic susceptibility, density, X-ray fluorescence and δO records

Computer aided multi-parameter signal correlation is used to develop a common high-precision age model for eight gravity cores from the subtropical and subantarctic South Atlantic. Since correlations between all pairs of multi-parameter sequences are used, and correlation errors between core pairs (A, B) and (B, C) are controlled by comparison with (A, C), the resulting age model is called a stratigraphic network. Precise inter-core correlation is achieved using high-resolution records of magnetic susceptibility κ, wet bulk density ρ and X-ray fluorescence scans of elemental composition. Additional δ¹⁸O records are available for two cores. The data indicate nearly undisturbed sediment series and the absence of significant hiatuses or turbidites. After establishing a high-precision common depth scale by synchronously correlating four densely measured parameters (Fe, Ca, κ, ρ), the final age model is obtained by simultaneously fitting the aligned δ¹⁸O and κ records of the stratigraphic network to orbitally tuned oxygen isotope [J. Imbrie, J. D. Hays, D. G. Martinson, A. McIntyre, A. C. Mix, J. J. Morley, N. G. Pisias, W. L. Prell, N. J. Shackleton, The orbital theory of Pleistocene climate: support from a revised chronology of the marine δ¹⁸O record, in: A. Berger, J. Imbrie, J. Hays, G. Kukla, B. Saltzman (Eds.), Milankovitch and Climate: Understanding the Response to Orbital Forcing, Reidel Publishing, Dordrecht, 1984, pp. 269-305; D. Martinson, N. Pisias, J. Hays, J. Imbrie, T. C. Moore Jr., N. Shackleton, Age dating and the orbital theory of the Ice Ages: development of a high-resolution 0 to 300.000-Year chronostratigraphy, Quat. Res. 27 (1987) 1-29.] or susceptibility stacks [T. von Dobeneck, F.Schmieder, Using rock magnetic proxy records for orbital tuning and extended time series analyses into the super-and sub-Milankovitch Bands, in: G. Fischer, G. Wefer (Eds.), Use of proxies in paleoceanography: Examples from the South Atlantic, Springer-Verlag, Berlin (1999), pp. 601-633.]. Besides the detection and elimination of errors in single records, the stratigraphic network approach allows to check the intrinsic consistency of the final result by comparing it to the outcome of more restricted alignment procedures. The final South Atlantic stratigraphic network covers the last 400 kyr south and the last 1200 kyr north of the Subtropical Front (STF) and provides a highly precise age model across the STF representing extremely different sedimentary regimes. This allows to detect temporal shifts of the STF by mapping δMn / Fe. It turns out that the apparent STF movements by about 200 km are not directly related to marine oxygen isotope stages.     

北太平洋副热带向东逆流区Rossby波斜压稳定性

根据对卫星观测的海平面高度资料的分析,进一步证实了在北太平洋副热带两支向东的流（副热带逆流和夏威夷背风逆流）所在的区域内,海平面高度的70～210天周期振荡是主要的低频变化.发现在这两支向东的逆流区Rossby波的特性不同：副热带逆流区70～210天周期振荡对应的Rossby波西传过程中增幅,在台湾以东振幅达到最大;而在夏威夷背风逆流区,70～210天周期Rossby波在西传过程中不出现增幅现象.依据2.5层海洋模式得到的关于Rossby波振幅、频率与海洋层结之间的关系,揭示了周期为70～210天的Rossby波为不稳定波,这是由于副热带逆流海域模态水存在使得密度的垂直梯度变小的缘故;而在夏威夷背风逆流区位于表层逆流下的北赤道流西深东浅,70～210天周期Rossby长波在逆流的东部有可能不稳定,但其在逆流的西部是稳定的,因此不出现在西传过程中增幅现象;发现在北太平洋副热带两个向东流的海域,年周期Rossby波是稳定的,因此,在该海域海平面周期为70～210天的振荡的振幅要比年周期振荡的振幅大.     

Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on climatic factors and estuarine water temperature on the Basque coast (Bay of Biscay): Comparative analysis of three seasonal NAO indices

The effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices on climatic conditions and their subsequent influence on water temperature of two Basque estuaries (estuary of Bilbao and estuary of Urdaibai) were assessed by transfer function (TF) models for the period 1997–2006. Results showed that air temperature had an immediate (lag=0) and significant negative response to the NAO, whereas rainfall was not correlated with this climate index. The negative correlation between NAO and air temperature was found to be stronger with the seasonal indices derived from the differences in surface pressure between Iceland and Azores than with that derived from the principal component time-series of the leading eigenvector of the sea-level pressure in an Atlantic sector. The correlations between rainfall and river discharge, and between air temperature and water temperature were positive and highly significant in both estuaries. The response of water temperature to air temperature was immediate in both estuaries, whereas one-quarter lagged responses were also observed in the estuary of Bilbao, which is deeper and more stratified than the estuary of Urdaibai. Our study provides evidence that on the Basque coast the NAO plays an important role in climate variations, which in turn affect estuarine water temperature.     

Spatial analysis of the invasion of lionfish in the western Atlantic and Caribbean

Pterois volitans and Pterois miles, two sub-species of lionfish, have become the first non-native, invasive marine fish established along the United States Atlantic coast and Caribbean. The route and timing of the invasion is poorly understood, however historical sightings and captures have been robustly documented since their introduction. Herein we analyze these records based on spatial location, dates of arrival, and prevailing physical factors at the capture sights. Using a cellular automata model, we examine the relationship between depth, salinity, temperature, and current, finding the latter as the most influential parameter for transport of lionfish to new areas. The model output is a synthetic validated reproduction of the lionfish invasion, upon which predictive simulations in other locations can be based. This predictive model is simple, highly adaptable, relies entirely on publicly available data, and is applicable to other species.     

Evidence from the Northeastern Atlantic basin for variability in the rate of the meridional overturning circulation through the last deglaciation

A first study from the subtropical western Atlantic, using ²³¹Pa/²³⁰Th ratios as a kinematic proxy for deep water circulation, provided compelling evidence for a strong link between climate and the rate of Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) over the last deglaciation. However, these results warrant confirmation from additional locations and water depths because the interpretation of the sedimentary ²³¹Pa/²³⁰Th ratio in terms of circulation vigor can be biased by variations in particle flux and composition. We have measured ²³¹Pa/²³⁰Th in a core from the Iberian margin, in the Northeastern Atlantic basin, and have compared these new results to the data from the western Atlantic basin. We find that the reduction in the circulation during H1 and YD and the subsequent increases first recognized in the sediment deposited on Bermuda Rise are also evident in the eastern basin, in a totally different sedimentary regime, confirming that sedimentary ²³¹Pa/²³⁰Th ratios record basin-wide changes in deep water circulation. However, some differences between the eastern and western records are also recognized, providing preliminary evidence to differentiate between renewal rates in the two North Atlantic basins and between shallower and deeper overturning. Our results suggest the possible existence of two sources of Glacial North Atlantic Intermediate Deep Water (GNAIW), one in the south Labrador Sea and another west of Rockall Plateau. Both sources contributed to the meridional overturning but the two had different sensitivity to meltwater from the Laurentide and the Fennoscandian ice sheets during the deglaciation. These results indicate that additional information on the geometry and strength of the ventilation of the deep Atlantic can be obtained by contrasting the evolution of sediment ²³¹Pa/²³⁰Th in different sections of the Atlantic Ocean.     

Nitrogen and carbon cycling in the North Sea and exchange with the North Atlantic—A model study,Part II: Carbon budget and fluxes

The 3-d coupled physical–biogeochemical model ECOHAM (version 3) was applied to the Northwest-European Shelf (47°41′–63°53′N, 15°5′W–13°55′E) for the years 1993–1996. Carbon fluxes were calculated for the years 1995 and 1996 for the inner shelf region, the North Sea (511,725 km²). This period was chosen because it corresponds to a shift from a very high winter-time North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) in 1994/1995, to an extremely low one in 1995/1996, with consequences for the North Sea physics and biogeochemistry. During the first half of 1996, the observed mean SST was about 1 °C lower than in 1995; in the southern part of the North Sea the difference was even larger (up to 3 °C). Due to a different wind regime, the normally prevailing anti-clockwise circulation, as found in winter 1995, was replaced by more complicated circulation patterns in winter 1996. Decreased precipitation over the drainage area of the continental rivers led to a reduction in the total (inorganic and organic) riverine carbon load to the North Sea from 476 Gmol C yr⁻¹ in 1995 to 340 Gmol C yr⁻¹ in 1996. In addition, the North Sea took up 503 Gmol C yr⁻¹ of CO₂ from the atmosphere. According to our calculations, the North Sea was a sink for atmospheric CO₂, at a rate of 0.98 mol C m⁻² yr⁻¹, for both years. The North Sea is divided into two sub-systems: the shallow southern North Sea (SNS; 190,765 km²) and the deeper northern North Sea (NNS; 320,960 km²). According to our findings the SNS is a net-autotrophic system (net ecosystem production NEP>0) but released CO₂ to the atmosphere: 159 Gmol C yr⁻¹ in 1995 and 59 Gmol C yr⁻¹ in 1996. There, the temperature-driven release of CO₂ outcompetes the biological CO₂ drawdown. In the NNS, where respiratory processes prevail (NEP<0), 662 and 562 Gmol C yr⁻¹ were taken up from the atmosphere in 1995 and 1996, respectively. Stratification separates the productive, upper layer from the deeper layers of the water column where respiration/remineralization takes place. Duration and stability of the stratification are determined by the meteorological conditions, in relation to the NAO. Our results suggest that this mechanism controlling the nutrient supply to the upper layer in the northern and central North Sea has a larger impact on the carbon fluxes than changes in lateral transport due to NAOI variations. The North Sea as a whole imports organic carbon and exports inorganic carbon across the outer boundaries, and was found to be net-heterotrophic, more markedly in 1996 than in 1995.