A trend analysis of normalized insured damage from natural disasters

As the world becomes wealthier over time, inflation-adjusted insured damages from natural disasters go up as well. This article analyzes whether there is still a significant upward trend once insured natural disaster loss has been normalized. By scaling up loss from past disasters, normalization adjusts for the fact that a hazard event of equal strength will typically cause more damage nowadays than in past years because of wealth accumulation over time. A trend analysis of normalized insured damage from natural disasters is not only of interest to the insurance industry, but can potentially be useful for attempts at detecting whether there has been an increase in the frequency and/or intensity of natural hazards, whether caused by natural climate variability or anthropogenic climate change. We analyze trends at the global level over the period 1990 to 2008, over the period 1980 to 2008 for West Germany and 1973 to 2008 for the United States. We find no significant trends at the global level, but we detect statistically significant upward trends in normalized insured losses from all non-geophysical disasters as well as from certain specific disaster types in the United States and West Germany.     

A less disastrous disaster: Managing response to climate-driven hazards in the Cayman Islands and NE Brazil

This paper explores the relationship between disaster risk reduction and long-term adaptive capacity building in two climate vulnerable areas—the Cayman Islands in the Caribbean and Ceará, in NE Brazil. Drawing on past applications of the disaster risk reduction framework, we identify four critical factors that have led to reductions in risk: flexible, learning-based, responsive governance; committed, reform-minded and politically active actors; disaster risk reduction integrated into other social and economic policy processes; and a long-term commitment to managing risk. We find that while the presence of these factors has reduced overall risk in both regions, in Ceará, disaster response as it is currently practiced, has fallen short of addressing the fundamental causes of vulnerability that leave those prone to hazards able to cope in the short term, yet enmeshed in poverty and at risk from the longer-term changes associated with climate change. Although calls for integration of disaster risk management with poverty eradication are not new, there has been insufficient attention paid in the literature on how to foster such integration. Based on the two case studies, we argue that the adoption of good governance mechanisms (such as stakeholder participation, access to knowledge, accountability and transparency) in disaster risk reduction policy may create the policy environment that is conducive to the kind of structural reform needed to build long-term adaptive capacity to climate-driven impacts. We conclude that without a synergistic two-tiered approach that includes both disaster risk reduction and structural reform, disaster risk reduction, in the face of climate changes, will prove to be an expensive and ineffective palliative treatment of changing risks.     

Normalizing economic loss from natural disasters: A global analysis

Climate change is likely to lead to an increase in the frequency and/or intensity of certain types of natural hazards, if not globally, then at least in certain regions. All other things equal, this should lead to an increase in the economic toll from natural disasters over time. Yet, all other things are not equal since affected areas become wealthier over time and rational individuals and governments undertake defensive mitigation measures, which requires normalizing economic losses if one wishes to analyze trends in economic loss from natural disasters for detecting a potential climate change signal. In this article, we argue that the conventional methodology for normalizing economic loss is problematic since it normalizes for changes in wealth over time, but fails to normalize for differences in wealth across space at any given point of time. We introduce an alternative methodology that overcomes this problem in theory, but faces many more problems in its empirical application. Applying, therefore, both methods to the most comprehensive existing global dataset of natural disaster loss, in general we find no significant upward trends in normalized disaster damage over the period 1980-2009 globally, regionally, for specific disasters or for specific disasters in specific regions. Due to our inability to control for defensive mitigation measures, one cannot infer from our analysis that there have definitely not been more frequent and/or more intensive weather-related natural hazards over the study period already. Moreover, it may still be far too early to detect a trend if human-induced climate change has only just started and will gain momentum over time.     

The relationship between political ideology and current earthquake and tsunami preparedness

Previous studies have revealed that political ideology can influence motivations for individual preparedness to mitigate the effects of climate change. Few studies have examined its role in individual preparedness behaviors to reduce the impacts of other natural hazards, such as earthquakes and tsunamis. The purpose of this study is to explore the influence of political ideology on current individual earthquake and tsunami preparedness behaviors among inhabitants of Chile's coastal areas. A statistically representative sample of the Valparaíso Region (N = 500) participated in this study. They were part of a more extensive study conducted between 2018 and 2019 in cities along the Chilean coastline, intending to study preparedness for multiple natural hazards. The survey evaluated trust in government authorities regarding emergency management, current earthquake/tsunami preparedness behaviors, and political ideology. The results reveal that political ideology is a relevant factor in predicting emergency preparedness behaviors and is significantly related to trust in government authorities. The individuals located on the right extreme of both dimensions of political ideology (those self-identified as right-wing and/or pro-market) report a higher level of current earthquake/tsunami preparedness, compared to their respective groups. Thus, for future design and implementation of natural disaster preparedness strategies and programs, the agencies in charge should recognize the role of political ideology.     

Informing national adaptation for sustainable development through spatial systems modelling

Acute climate-change hazards, such as floods or storm surges, can affect a nation’s built and natural environment assets that are critical for development and achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). To reduce the impacts of such acute climate-change hazards and safeguard development, national decision-makers require evidence on where and how hazards affect SDG achievement to better inform adaptation. Here, we develop a systems methodology that spatially models the impacts of climate-change hazards across a nation’s entire built and natural environment assets and its interdependent influences on the SDG targets to inform national adaptation. We apply our methodology in Saint Lucia through a participatory approach with decision-makers across 18 government ministries, academia, and the private sector. Results reveal that acute climate-change hazards can affect half of Saint Lucia’s assets across 22 sectors, which can influence 89% of all SDG targets. Application of our methodology provided evidence on where and how to prioritise adaptation, thereby helping to add spatial granularity to 52 measures under Saint Lucia’s National Adaptation Plan (NAP) as well as specificity on how limited capacity for cross-sectoral coordination can be directed to safeguard SDG targets. Adaptation does not necessarily imply investing in physical asset protection: results show the need to protect critical natural environments which provide important adaptation services to the built environment. As more nations develop and revise their NAPs and Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement, strategic planning across sectors – as demonstrated in Saint Lucia – will be critical to facilitate adaptation that safeguards SDG achievement.     

Taming São Paulo’s floods: Dominant discourses,exclusionary practices,and the complicity of the media

Climate change leads to more frequent and severe flooding, urging cities to adapt to protect their populations and assets. Despite exacerbated hazards, governments repeatedly draw on ‘tried-and-true’ approaches to protect the status quo, often with serious adverse effects for the poor and vulnerable. Yet, such dominant approaches do not go unchallenged as the media and other actors prompt public debate to assess flood impacts, scrutinise government decisions, and perhaps even promote alternative practices. News outlets are not, however, balanced or value-free; the events portrayed and the voices (and knowledges) recognised and included in media coverage deeply influence whether and how flooding is incorporated in policy. Focusing on São Paulo, Brazil, we examine how the media framed flood events and conveyed solutions during the city’s worst floods in recorded history. We demonstrate how competing media outlets largely depicted flooding as a natural phenomenon to be solved by governments and experts through existing techno-managerial practices, mirroring governmental partisan plans for adaptive action. In doing so, the media failed to offer a democratic space for public discussion, citizen contestation, and the advancement of alternative trajectories for adaptation. We posit that inclusive trajectories that address entrenched vulnerabilities and projected climate change will benefit from rigorous ethical debates around the media’s role in disaster coverage while strategically leveraging alternative media outlets as public pedagogy and agenda-setting tools.     

基于GIS的广东省台风灾害风险性评价

为有效评价广东省台风灾害风险性,基于自然灾害风险性评价理论及方法和地理信息系统(GIS)相关技术,利用灾害及社会经济统计数据、遥感地图数据和其它地理数据,选择灾害危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体脆弱性和防灾减灾能力为评价指标,运用提出的TFN-AHP-EW主客观赋权法求取各评价指标相关因子的权重,建立广东省台风灾害风险性评价模型。结果表明:广东省台风灾害风险程度区域差异明显,风险性较高的地区为广东省南部沿海地区如湛江、珠海、汕尾;风险较低的地区是广东省北部地区如清远、韶关等地。      

全球变化背景下生态气象监测、评价及预警若干问题

IPCC发布的气候变化报告表明,全球变暖是不争的事实,中国气候变化的总体效应为弊大于利;人类必须通过共同努力,应对气候变化的负面效应.在全球变化背景下,生态系统中的生物与环境要素如何变化,相关生态现象与生态过程机制如何,生态问题及其机制如何,均需要全面监测及综合评价才可能通过构建模型、建立基准进行风险预警.这也是目前生态环境损害赔偿及维护生态稳定性的客观需要.生态要素影响并制约着区域气候特征,而特定气候也不同程度地反馈于生态过程,产生不同的生态效果,这些问题的本质就是生态气象耦合关系问题.生态气象就是在生态学及气象学交叉与融合的背景下产生的新学科,并结合相关学科及遥感等信息技术,极大地丰富了学科内涵.未来生态气象监测评估及预警将全面展开,生态科学研究与气象业务服务也将紧密融合,生态气象评估方法趋于规范化与标准化,"互联网+"理念将促进"生态物联网"与生态气象的不断创新与发展.本研究对于美丽中国及生态文明建设（ECC）具有重要现实意义.     

降雨型地质灾害预报方法研究进展

开展降雨型地质灾害预报是减少灾害损失的有效方法。该文在讨论降雨型地质灾害预报相关概念的基础上,结合国内外已有的研究成果,系统总结了隐式统计模型、显式统计模型和动力模型等降雨型地质灾害预报模型的特点和适用条件。近几年区域降雨型地质灾害的预报技术研究有以下新特点:统计模型简单实用,目前已经由单一考虑降雨特征的第1代隐式统计模型,进一步发展为考虑地质、地貌等静态因子的显示统计模型;动力模型逐渐由基于垂直入渗理论的边坡稳定性模型开始向基于水土耦合机制的复杂预报模型发展;降雨型地质灾害业务预报预警的核心是地质灾害预报模型的本地化运行,我国已经基于统计模型搭建了服务于不同区域的业务预报预警系统。结合多源预报降雨资料,搭建基于水土耦合机制的降雨型地质灾害集合预报预警系统是未来可能的发展方向。     

社交媒体在“21世纪海上丝绸之路”沿线国家海洋防灾减灾中的应用及借鉴

以Twitter、Facebook为代表的社交媒体在防灾减灾方面的作用越来越受到关注.中国是世界上海洋灾害最为严重的国家之一,海洋防灾减灾是目前我国面临的十分紧迫的问题.近年来,智能手机和网络的普及让中国的社交媒体进入了人们的日常生活.借鉴国外社交媒体在防灾减灾方面的经验,我们认为中国的社交媒体在海洋防灾减灾中同样拥有巨大潜力.本文首先介绍了"21世纪海上丝绸之路"沿线的几个国家利用社交媒体开展海洋防灾减灾工作的情况,随后总结了当前中国在海洋灾害预警、灾害信息传播及灾害管理等方面的实际情况.最后,借鉴国外先进的经验和做法,为进一步提升中国社交媒体在海洋防灾减灾工作中的作用提出了启示性的对策建议.     

益阳市高温热害评估

普查益阳市各气象站1959-2009年的高温天气过程,根据高温范围、持续时间、强度和高温期间干旱日数等设置高温异常指数,从气象角度综合评估了一次高温过程的灾害影响程度。通过分析排序,揭示了益阳"5年一遇"至"50年一遇"的年际高温灾害性天气事件的主要分布特征,并对益阳高温的空间分布及其年代际变化特征作了初步分析。结果表明,20世纪六、七十年代益阳市强高温热害较多,其灾害程度为"10年一遇"至"50年一遇",1966年7月中旬至8月中旬出现的高温酷暑天气为"50年一遇,"1979-1991年、1996-2008年仅有小于"5年一遇"的高温热害,2009年的高温热害为"5年一遇"。     

Approaching moisture recycling governance

The spatial and temporal dynamics of water resources are a continuous challenge for effective and sustainable national and international governance. The watershed is the most common spatial unit in water resources governance, which typically includes only surface and groundwater. However, recent advances in hydrology have revealed ‘atmospheric watersheds’ – otherwise known as precipitationsheds. Water flowing within a precipitationshed may be modified by land-use change in one location, while the effect of this modification could be felt in a different province, country, or continent. Despite an upwind country's ability to change a downwind country's rainfall through changes in land-use or land management, the major legal and institutional implications of changes in atmospheric moisture flows have remained unexplored. Here we explore potential ways to approach what we denote as moisture recycling governance. We first identify a set of international study regions, and then develop a typology of moisture recycling relationships within these regions ranging from bilateral moisture exchange to more complex networks. This enables us to classify different types of possible governance principles and relate those to existing land and water governance frameworks and management practices. The complexity of moisture recycling means institutional fit will be difficult to generalize for all moisture recycling relationships, but our typology allows the identification of characteristics that make effective governance of these normally ignored water flows more tenable.     

Semiquantitative Assessment of Regional Climate Vulnerability: The North-Rhine Westphalia Study

Climate change will bring about a sea change in environmental conditions worldwide during the 21th century. In particular, most of the extreme events and natural disaster regimes prevailing today will be transformed, thus exposing innumerable natural and socio-economic systems to novel risks that will be difficult to cope with. This crucial component of vulnerability to anthropogenic interference with the climate system is analyzed using powerful pattern recognition methods from statistical physics. The analysis is of intermediate character, with respect to spatial scale and complexity level respectively, and therefore allows a rapid regional assessment for any area of interest. The approach is based on a comprehensive inventory of all those ecological and socioeconomic assets in a region that are significantly sensitive to extreme weather (and climate) events. Advanced cluster analysis techniques are then employed to derive from the inventory a set of thematic maps that succinctly summarize – and visualize – the differential vulnerabilities characteristic of the area in question. This information can prepare decision makers and the general public for the climate change hazards to be faced and facilitates a precautionary climate change risk management. The semiquantitative methodology described and applied here can be easily extended to other aspects of climate change assessment.     

An integrated socio-environmental framework for glacier hazard management and climate change adaptation: lessons from Lake 513, Cordillera Blanca, Peru

Glacier hazards threaten societies in mountain regions worldwide. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) pose risks to exposed and vulnerable populations and can be linked in part to long-term post-Little Ice Age climate change because precariously dammed glacial lakes sometimes formed as glaciers generally retreated after the mid-1800s. This paper provides an interdisciplinary and historical analysis of 40?years of glacier hazard management on Mount Hualcán, at glacial Lake 513, and in the city of Carhuaz in Peru’s Cordillera Blanca mountain range. The case study examines attempted hazard zoning, glacial lake evolution and monitoring, and emergency engineering projects to drain Lake 513. It also analyzes the 11 April 2010 Hualcán rock-ice avalanche that triggered a Lake 513 GLOF; we offer both a scientific assessment of the possible role of temperature on slope stability and a GIS spatial analysis of human impacts. Qualitative historical analysis of glacier hazard management since 1970 allows us to identify and explain why certain actions and policies to reduce risk were implemented or omitted. We extrapolate these case-specific variables to generate a broader socio-environmental framework identifying factors that can facilitate or impede disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Facilitating factors are technical capacity, disaster events with visible hazards, institutional support, committed individuals, and international involvement. Impediments include divergent risk perceptions, imposed government policies, institutional instability, knowledge disparities, and invisible hazards. This framework emerges from an empirical analysis of a coupled social-ecological system and offers a holistic approach for integrating disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation.     

气候变暖背景下青藏高原山地灾害及其风险分析

基于青藏高原1930-2010年山地灾害实例,分析了气候变暖对青藏高原山地灾害的影响。结果表明：在气候变暖背景下,冰湖溃决灾害增多,冰川泥石流趋于活跃,特大灾害出现频繁,灾害链生特征明显,表现出时间和空间上的延拓性,巨灾发生概率增大;在藏东南地区表现出雨热同期的气候特征,构成了利于冰川类泥石流形成的条件;波密县城位于两条泥石流危险区的建筑物占地面积由1988年0.014 km²扩展到2012年1.004 km²,人口与经济密集区与灾害高风险区重叠,加之气候变化导致的灾害危险性增加,青藏高原灾害风险显著增大。上述结果提供了气候变化对青藏高原山地灾害影响的证据,初步阐述了其影响特征,有助于山地减灾和进一步认识气候变化对山地灾害的影响机理。     

中国农业洪涝灾害研究进展

农业洪涝灾害是国内外灾害研究的重要分支领域。该文采用分类归纳总结已有研究成果并与观测事实相佐证的方法,从农业洪涝相关概念出发,系统阐述了中国农业洪涝灾害的研究进展,评述了气候变暖对中国农业洪涝灾害的影响。基于影响作物及发生时段,中国农业洪涝灾害可分为影响越冬作物的春涝、影响夏播夏收和夏季作物生长的夏涝及影响秋播秋收作物的秋涝。农业洪涝灾害的形成及强度,是天气气候、作物抗涝性、地形地貌、土壤结构及人类活动等多种因素综合作用的结果;气候变暖背景下,中国农业洪涝成灾率呈南方增强北部减缓的趋势,总体呈上升趋势;一方面与极端降水事件的变化有直接关系,另一方面受作物气候适宜性变化等的间接影响。农业洪涝灾害的致灾机理包括物理性破坏、生理性损伤及生态性危害。其影响包括对农业生产环境、作物生态生理和生长发育的影响及诱发病虫害等。气候变化背景下的农业洪涝综合性指标、基于灾变过程的综合风险评估及气候变暖对不同作物洪涝灾害的影响事实将是未来重点研究方向。     

Local path dependence of U.S. socioeconomic exposure to climate extremes and the vulnerability commitment

Despite improvements in disaster risk management in the United States, a trend toward increasing economic losses from extreme weather events has been observed. This trend has been attributed to growth in socioeconomic exposure to extremes, a process characterized by strong path dependence. To understand the influence of path dependence on past and future losses, an index of potential socioeconomic exposure was developed at the U.S. county level based upon population size and inflation-adjusted wealth proxies. Since 1960, exposure has increased preferentially in the U.S. Southeast (particularly coastal and urban counties) and Southwest relative to the Great Plains and Northeast. Projected changes in exposure from 2009 to 2054 based upon scenarios of future demographic and economic change suggest a long-term commitment to increasing, but spatially heterogeneous, exposure to extremes, independent of climate change. The implications of this path dependence are examined in the context of several natural hazards. Using methods previously reported in the literature, annualized county-level losses from 1960 to 2008 for five climate-related natural hazards were normalized to 2009 values and then scaled based upon projected changes in exposure and two different estimates of the exposure elasticity of losses. Results indicate that losses from extreme events will grow by a factor of 1.3–1.7 and 1.8–3.9 by 2025 and 2050, respectively, with the exposure elasticity representing a major source of uncertainty. The implications of increasing physical vulnerability to extreme weather events for investments in disaster risk management are ultimately contingent upon the normative values of societal actors.     

On the relation between weather-related disaster impacts,vulnerability and climate change

Disasters such as floods, storms, heatwaves and droughts can have enormous implications for health, the environment and economic development. In this article, we address the question of how climate change might have influenced the impact of weather-related disasters. This relation is not straightforward, since disaster burden is not influenced by weather and climate events alone—other drivers are growth in population and wealth, and changes in vulnerability. We normalized disaster impacts, analyzed trends in the data and compared them with trends in extreme weather and climate events and vulnerability, following a 3 by 4 by 3 set-up, with three disaster burden categories, four regions and three extreme weather event categories. The trends in normalized disaster impacts show large differences between regions and weather event categories. Despite these variations, our overall conclusion is that the increasing exposure of people and economic assets is the major cause of increasing trends in disaster impacts. This holds for long-term trends in economic losses as well as the number of people affected. We also found similar, though more qualitative, results for the number of people killed; in all three cases, the role played by climate change cannot be excluded. Furthermore, we found that trends in historic vulnerability tend to be stable over time, despite adaptation measures taken by countries. Based on these findings, we derived disaster impact projections for the coming decades. We argue that projections beyond 2030 are too uncertain, not only due to unknown changes in vulnerability, but also due to increasing non-stationarities in normalization relations.     

电子信息系统雷灾风险评估方法

灾害是一种风险,防治灾害就是管理并降低或者消除风险。需要正确认识和评估风险,对于雷电灾害来说就是开展雷电灾害风险评估,进而实施合理的雷电防护。因此,雷击风险评估是防雷设计工作之前的最重要的环节,为了全面、具体实施全方位的雷电防护提供客观、准确、科学的依据,本文针对电子信息系统雷电灾害的特点,在详细分析各种灾害成因的基础上,通过理论计算,提出了对雷电灾害进行风险评估的方法。     

Providing new homes for climate change exiles

Abstract

Given a certain pre-existing commitment to sea-level rise due to the long thermal lags of the ocean system, several million people living in coastal areas and small islands will inevitably be displaced by the middle of the century. These climate exiles will have nowhere to go. Rather than deal with this in an ad hoc manner as the problem arises, the authors propose a mechanism by which these exiles would be given immigration benefits by countries through a formula that ties numbers of immigrants to a country's historical greenhouse gas emissions. Such a compensatory mechanism appears to be a fair way of addressing the problems faced by climate exiles.