水库流域入库洪水预报误差分析

由于受水库枢纽工程的影响，使得反推计算的入库流量本身就存在较大的误差，从而增加了入库洪水预报模型研制的难度，影响了这时预报精度的考核。通过对全国诸多水电厂水库流域实时洪水预报的实践，对其入库洪水预报中存在的误差原因及解决方法进行了科学的分析和阐述，以指导实时预报。     

古洪水流量的误差计算

古洪水研究已在大型工程和长江三峡，黄河小浪底等的设计洪水中得到动用取得了令人虚心成功，但古洪水流量的推求与实测量的计算往往有大的差别，根据随机误差的传播给出了一般情况下的古洪不流量推误差计算公式，以小流底２３６０ａＢＰ古洪水注同误差的计算为例，对最终计算出的古洪水流量成果给出了一个误差范围。     

长江上,中游遭遇洪水预报

本文对长江上、中游遭遇洪水的定义，标准，水文特征，入流量计算，江湖容蓄曲线的变化规律，洞庭湖大湖区间径流计算作了分析研究，对洪水遭遇情况下螺山站预见期为１－５天的水位过程预报方法作了探讨，并统计了预报的误差规律。     

美国国家天气局洪水预报分级检验系统简介

介绍了美国国家天气局洪水预报分级检验系统的主要内容，该系统将洪水视为一个事件或一组事件，根据历史水文资料的分析，将预报站点发生的洪水分为6个等级，即无洪水、小洪水、中等洪水、大洪水、接近历史最高记录洪水、超记录洪水。一次洪水在退水之前或许跨越数个等级。如果某次洪水事件没有预报正确，可以计算出其误差，这是一个事件误差，而不是水位或洪峰误差。对所获取的资料做简单的统计分析后，以图表表示，对洪水预报效果做出评价和检验。     

流量测验误差分析及对推求设计洪水的影响

流量是综合开发利用水资源的一项重要基础资料,通过研究其误差来源与误差规律性,不但对水资源开发利用的相关设计具有重要意义,其对于水文测验科学技术水平的提高和发展也是非常重要的。由实测流量资料推求设计洪水,由于实测流量资料存在的误差,对推求的设计值将产生不同的影响。本文较全面地分析了流量测验的误差来源、性质和分类,根据《河流流量测验规范》的相关内容,对流量测验误差进行了较全面的分析,总结探讨了流量测验的总不确定度的计算、流量各单项误差试验资料的收集及分析、计算,还研究了流量测验误差对推求设计洪水的影响。结果表明：由原始数据采用适线法推求参数,在用实测资料推求设计洪水时,由于资料的误差会使所推求的设计洪水值系统偏大于真值一般情况下,正常测验的流量高水资料的相对误差的均方差不到10%甚至小于5%,由于流量资料误差而使所推求的设计洪水偏大不到5%。正常情况下收集的流量资料的误差对推求设计洪水影响较小。但应尽量减少资料的测验误差,提高资料测验的精度以满足国家各部门的需要。     

考虑区间正负入流量的自适应洪水预报模型

根据甘肃省气候条件和地理环境十分复杂，河流站网密度低，面对上下游区间有正负入流量且没有观测资料，以水量平衡原理为基础的河道洪水演算无法进行的实际情况，立足于利用现有上下游水站的水情信息，在传统系统水模型和河道汇流理论有关原理、方法的基础上，提出了考虑区间正负入流量的自适应洪水预报模型，改进了现行系统输入～输出水量不平衡关系，解决了甘肃省河流洪水过程无法预报的问题。具有十分广阔的应用前景。     

沱讧上游长期洪水预报初探

沱江上游洪水属典型天然河道洪水特性，采用历史洪水系列，分析了厄尔尼诺现象和太阳黑子活动对沱江上游洪水的影响，并通过分析周期变化规律及数理统计分析预报等多种方法，综合分析了各种相关因子对沱江上游三皇庙水文站历年最大流量的影响，从而提高了沱江上游长期洪水预报精度。     

基于单位线反演的产流误差修正

为提高实时洪水预报的精度,将单位线引入实时洪水预报修正中,建立一种向信息源头追溯的反馈修正模型。用最小二乘估计原理,通过推求产流量误差,用理想模型对误差修正模型进行了验证,并对不同范围的产流量误差修正效果进行对比。在浙江长潭流域对11场历史洪水进行修正验证,效果明显,对预报精度有一定的提高。该方法结构简单,且不增加参数,物理概念清晰,又不损失预见期,可以在实际流域洪水预报中推广应用。     

实时洪水抗差预报系统研究

把抗差估计理论引入实时洪水预报系统,提出适合于实时洪水预报系统的抗差特征函数,建立降雨误差的动态监控模式,研究实时修正模型参数的动态抗差估计,结合洪水预报模型,形成具有水文学特点、抗差性强的实时洪水抗差预报系统.将此系统和传统实时洪水预报系统运用于闽江七里街流域,比较当降雨和流量资料存在异常误差时两系统的预报效果.结果表明,实时洪水抗差预报系统能抵御异常值的影响,获得比较稳定且高精度的预报结果.     

联合天气雷达洪水预警系统中的不确定性,可靠度和风险

洪水预报中的不确定性是由作为输入的降水观测和预报的误差所决定的。误差大小受雨量计站网密度（大多与天气雷达联合运用），降水强度和所采用的降水预报方法的影响。在不更颠南部，采用一种经验方法来量化降水观测及预报的不确定性性，数据由两个密集的雨量计站网和天气雷达共同提供。降水不确定性对洪水预报的影响，通过在伦敦附近的泰晤士流域一个综合实验研究进行了检验。此项研究就模型和流域对洪水预报不确定性的相地影响也很     

The terrestrial fauna of the Late Triassic Pant-y-ffynnon Quarry fissures,South Wales,UK and a new species of Clevosaurus (Lepidosauria: Rhynchocephalia)

Pant-y-ffynnon Quarry in South Wales yielded a rich cache of fossils in the early 1950s, including articulated specimens of new species (the small sauropodomorph dinosaur Pantydraco caducus and the crocodylomorph Terrestrisuchus gracilis), but no substantial study of the wider fauna of the Pant-y-ffynnon fissure systems has been published. Here, our overview of existing specimens, a few described but mostly undescribed, as well as freshly processed material, provides a comprehensive picture of the Pant-y-ffynnon palaeo-island of the Late Triassic. This was an island with a relatively impoverished fauna dominated by small clevosaurs (rhynchocephalians), including a new species, Clevosaurus cambrica, described here from a partially articulated specimen and isolated bones. The new species has a dental morphology that is intermediate between the Late Triassic Clevosaurus hudsoni, from Cromhall Quarry to the east, and the younger C. convallis from Pant Quarry to the west, suggesting adaptive radiation of clevosaurs in the palaeo-archipelago. The larger reptiles on the palaeo-island do not exceed 1.5?m in length, including a small carnivorous crocodylomorph, Terrestrisuchus, and a possible example of insular dwarfism in the basal dinosaur Pantydraco.     

Définition d'une limite multicritère ; stratigraphie du passage Campanien–Maastrichtien du site géologique de Tercis (Landes,SW France)Definition of a multi-criteria boundary; stratigraphy of the Campanian–Maastrichtian interval of the geological site at Tercis (Landes,SW France)

Lithostratigraphy, physicochemical stratigraphy, biostratigraphy, and geochronology of the 77–70 Ma old series bracketing the Campanian–Maastrichtian boundary have been investigated by 70 experts. For the first time, direct relationships between macro- and microfossils have been established, as well as direct and indirect relationships between chemo-physical and biostratigraphical tools. A combination of criteria for selecting the boundary level, duration estimates, uncertainties on durations and on the location of biohorizons have been considered; new chronostratigraphic units are proposed. The geological site at Tercis is accepted by the Commission on Stratigraphy as the international reference for the stratigraphy of the studied interval. To cite this article: G.S. Odin, C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 409–414.     

The effect of water on accessory phase solubility in subaluminous and peralkaline granitic melts

The solubilities of columbite, tantalite, wolframite, rutile, zircon and hafnon were determined as a function of the water contents in peralkaline and subaluminous granite melts. All experiments were conducted at 1035 °C and 2 kbar and the water contents of the melts ranged from nominally dry to approximately 6 wt.% H₂O. Accessory phase solubilities are not affected by the water content of the peralkaline melt. By contrast, solubilities are affected by the water content of the subaluminous melt, where the solubilities of all the accessory phases examined increase with the water content of the melt, up to 2 wt.% H₂O. At higher water contents, solubilities are nearly constant. It can be concluded that water is not an important control of accessory phase solubility, although the water content will affect diffusivities of components in the melt, thus whether or not accessory phases will be present as restite material. The solubility behaviour in the subaluminous and peralkaline melts supports previous spectroscopic studies, which have observed differences in the coordination of high field strength elements in dry vs. wet subaluminous granitic glasses, but not for peralkaline granitic glasses. Lastly, the fact that wolframite solubility increases with increasing water content in the subaluminous melt suggests that tungsten dissolved as a hexavalent species.     

Quaternary stresses revealed by calcite twinning inversion: insights from observations in the Savonnières underground quarry (eastern France)

Calcite samples were extracted both from the rock matrix and the superficial coating of a karstified fault plane of an underground quarry, located in the eastern border of the Paris basin. The karstification is dated as Quaternary. Analysis of mechanical calcite twinning reveals that only the calcite matrix has also undergone a compression trending WNW that can be attributed to the Mio-Pliocene alpine collision. Both coating and matrix have undergone a strike-slip regime with σ₁ roughly trending north–south, that could correspond to the regional present-day state of stress, a strike-slip compression rather trending NNW, modified by local phenomena. To cite this article: M. Rocher et al., C. R. Geoscience 335 (2003).     

NONMETALS DEPOSITS

正20141520 Bo Ying(Key Laboratory of Metallogeny and Mineral Assessment,MLR,Beijing 100037,China);Liu Chenglin Saline Spring Hydrochemical Characteristics and Indicators for Potassium Exploration in Southwestern and Northern Tarim Basin,Xinjiang(Acta Geoscientica Sinica,ISSN1006-3021,CN11-3474/P,34(5),2013,p.594-602,5 illus.,3 tables,28 refs.)     

MATHEMATICAL GEOLOGY

正20141243Chen Ge(Hangzhou Research Institute of Petroleum Geology,PetroChina,Hangzhou 310023,China);Si Chunsong Study on Sedimentary Numerical Simulation Method of Fan Delta Sand Body(Journal of Geology,     

PROSPECTING EXPLORATION

正20142599Chen Sanming(Guangxi Key Laboratory of Concealed Deposits Exploration,Guilin University of Technology,Guilin541004,China);He Yuzhou Block Model and Reserves Estimation of Panzhihua Iron Deposit Based on 3D Geological Modeling(Journal of Guilin University of Technology,ISSN1674-9057,CN45-1375/N,33(4),2013,p.610-615,9illus.,1table,15refs.)     

STRUCTURAL GEOLOGY

正20140594 Bai Daoyuan(Hunan Institute of Geology Survey,Changsha 410016,China);Zhong Xiang Faults in the Jingzhou Basin and Their Tectonic Settings(Geotectonica et Metallogenia,ISSN1001-1552,CN44-1595/P,37(2),2013,p.173-183,6illus.,59refs.)Key words:basin evolution,tectonic setting,South China In the Upper Paleozoic and Jurassic se-     

STRUCTURAL GEOLOGY

正20141912Cao Hui(State Key Laboratory for Continental Tectonics and Dynamics,Institute of Geology,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,Beijing 100037,China)Gravitational Collapse and Folding during Orogenesis:A Comparative Study of FIA Trends and Fold Axial Plane Traces(Geology in China,ISSN1000-3657,CN11-1167/P,40(6),2013,p.1818-1828,9illus.,35refs.,with