中国活动构造研究的进展与展望

本文试图在世界活动构造研究背景下概括中国活动构造研究的进展，并对最近20年来中国的活动构造研究，包括几何学、滑动速率、古地震和大震重复间隔、分段理论和应用、活动褶皱、深浅构造耦合关系、城市和海域活动构造探测、块体划分和块体运动、地震危险性的未来断裂滑动量评价及中国现代构造活动动力学等进行简要评述，对今后在这些方面的发展进行概略的讨论。     

Paleoseismological analysis of an intraplate extensional structure: the Concud fault (Iberian Chain,eastern Spain)

The Concud fault is a 13.5 km long, NW–SE striking normal fault at the eastern Iberian Chain. Its recent (Late Pleistocene) slip history is characterized from mapping and trench analysis and discussed in the context of the accretion/incision history of the Alfambra River. The fault has been active since Late Pliocene times, with slip rates ranging from 0.07 to 0.33 mm/year that are consistent with its present-day geomorphologic expression. The most likely empirical correlation suggests that the associated paleoseisms have potential magnitudes close to 6.8, coseismic displacements of 2.0 m, and recurrence intervals from 6.1 to 28.9 ka. At least six paleoseismic events have been identified between 113 and 32 ka. The first three events (U to W) involved displacement along the major fault plane. The last three events (X to Z) encompassed downthrow and hanging-wall synthetic bending prompting fissure opening. This change is accompanied by a decrease in slip rate (from 0.63 to 0.08–0.17 mm/year) and has been attributed to activation of a synthetic blind fault at the hanging wall. The average coseismic displacement (1.9–2.0 m) and recurrence period (6.7–7.9 ka) inferred from this paleoseismic succession are within the ranges predicted from empirical correlation. Such paleoseismic activity contrasts with the moderate present-day seismicity of the area (maximum instrumental Mb = 4.4), which can be explained by the long recurrence interval that characterizes intraplate regions.     

中国西北帕米尔东北缘的活动断裂研究

在卫星遥感图像的详细地质解译分析基础上，结合野外地质与地貌观察，对帕米尔东北缘山前与印度－亚欧大陆碰撞相关的活动断层进行了分析。研究结果指出，NW－NWW走向的断层主要表现为南倾逆冲断层，并伴随有强烈的右旋走滑分量。流经活动断层带的水系显示出右旋累积位错：小水系的水平位错量为4.0-20.0m，大河流的水平位错量达8－12km。沿断层带的上新世至早更新世地层也显示出一致的水平位错，位错量为8－12km。这些证明表明，帕米尔东南山前的NW－NWW走向的断层很可能开始于上新世末期至早更新世早期（2.2-3Ma)。研究结果首次厘定了帕米尔东北缘山前与向北逆冲相伴随的右旋走滑速率在第四纪期间达4.0-6.8mm/a。根据与现代地震活动相关的活断层分析，推测帕米尔东北缘山前7级以上地震重复周期为1000a左右。     

Crustal deformation in northern Central America

Evaluation of the seismic moment tensor for earthquakes on plate boundary is a standard procedure to determine the relative velocity of plates, which controls the seismic deformation rate predicted from the slip on a single fault. The moment tensor is also decomposed into an isotropic and a deviatoric part to discover the relationship between the average strain rate and the relative velocity between two plates. We utilize this procedure to estimate the rates of deformation in northern Central America where plate boundaries are seismically well defined. Four different tectonic environments are considered for modelling of the plate motions. The deformation rates obtained here compare well with those predicted from the plate motions models and are in good agreement with actual observations. Deformation rates on faults are increasingly being used to estimate earthquake recurrence from information on fault slip rate and more on how we can incorporate our current understanding into seismic hazard analyses.     

汶川地震(Ms8.0）地表建筑体变形特征及其构造意义

通过汶川地震震区大量的实地考察已证实沿着早先活动断裂主要发育了两条地表破裂带：一条是沿着映秀－北川断裂产生的逆冲伴随右旋走滑破裂带,长275km,最大垂直位移达11m,水平位移达12m; 另一条纯逆冲性质的破裂带,沿着灌县－安县断裂发育,最大垂直位移达4m。活动断裂之上的地表破裂带是野外工作中确定地震断裂性质的重要现象。另外,在活动断裂相邻区域和远离区域的路面以及建筑体还大量存在变形现象。通常沿活动断裂产生的地表破裂是典型的同震破裂,相邻区域的地表路面及建筑体发育的变形属于次生变形,远离区域发育的变形则属于震后变形。对次生变形和震后变形测量数据的应用容易影响活动断裂特征的确定和性质的判断,因为路面等建筑体上的挤压拱起、叠置以及水平错断等现象多是受到地震过程中通过断裂活动突然释放的巨大能量作用在局部地表建筑体产生的变形。但是,分布广泛的挤压现象暗示了区域上挤压应力场环境,有利于地表同震破裂位置的推测及地震断裂性质的判断。     

Static stress changes associated with normal faulting earthquakes in South Balkan area

Activation of major faults in Bulgaria and northern Greece presents significant seismic hazard because of their proximity to populated centers. The long recurrence intervals, of the order of several hundred years as suggested by previous investigations, imply that the twentieth century activation along the southern boundary of the sub-Balkan graben system, is probably associated with stress transfer among neighbouring faults or fault segments. Fault interaction is investigated through elastic stress transfer among strong main shocks (M ≥ 6.0), and in three cases their foreshocks, which ruptured distinct or adjacent normal fault segments. We compute stress perturbations caused by earthquake dislocations in a homogeneous half-space. The stress change calculations were performed for faults of strike, dip, and rake appropriate to the strong events. We explore the interaction between normal faults in the study area by resolving changes of Coulomb failure function (ΔCFF) since 1904 and hence the evolution of the stress field in the area during the last 100 years. Coulomb stress changes were calculated assuming that earthquakes can be modeled as static dislocations in an elastic half-space, and taking into account both the coseismic slip in strong earthquakes and the slow tectonic stress buildup associated with major fault segments. We evaluate if these stress changes brought a given strong earthquake closer to, or sent it farther from, failure. Our modeling results show that the generation of each strong event enhanced the Coulomb stress on along-strike neighbors and reduced the stress on parallel normal faults. We extend the stress calculations up to present and provide an assessment for future seismic hazard by identifying possible sites of impending strong earthquakes.     

First evidence for large earthquakes on the Deshir Fault,Central Iran Plateau

Although sliced by several strike slip faults, a large part of Central Iran remained aseismic during the period of time covered by the instrumental and historical seismic records. Stating the existence of earthquakes in the Holocene is therefore important for the assessment of the regional seismic hazard. A palaeoseismic study of the Deshir fault demonstrates that Central Iran hosted large earthquakes during latest Pleistocene and Holocene. The last event corresponds to 1 m‐deep fissures, which sandy infilling yielded an optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) age of 2.8 ± 1.4 ka. At least two previous events, outlined by older fissures and/or colluvial wedges, have been recorded over the last 10–30 ka. The magnitudes are difficult to assess because the actual slips per event are unknown. The size of the fissures and the significant vertical displacement associated with a colluvial wedge are nevertheless compatible with M ≈ 7 events along a primary strike‐slip surface break.     

Sensitivity analysis of seismic hazard for the northwestern portion of the state of Gujarat, India

We test the sensitivity of seismic hazard to three fault source models for the northwestern portion of Gujarat, India. The models incorporate different characteristic earthquake magnitudes on three faults with individual recurrence intervals of either 800 or 1600 years. These recurrence intervals imply that large earthquakes occur on one of these faults every 266–533 years, similar to the rate of historic large earthquakes in this region during the past two centuries and for earthquakes in intraplate environments like the New Madrid region in the central United States. If one assumes a recurrence interval of 800 years for large earthquakes on each of three local faults, the peak ground accelerations (PGA; horizontal) and 1-Hz spectral acceleration ground motions (5% damping) are greater than 1 g over a broad region for a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years' hazard level. These probabilistic PGAs at this hazard level are similar to median deterministic ground motions. The PGAs for 10% in 50 years' hazard level are considerably lower, generally ranging between 0.2 g and 0.7 g across northwestern Gujarat. Ground motions calculated from our models that consider fault interevent times of 800 years are considerably higher than other published models even though they imply similar recurrence intervals. These higher ground motions are mainly caused by the application of intraplate attenuation relations, which account for less severe attenuation of seismic waves when compared to the crustal interplate relations used in these previous studies. For sites in Bhuj and Ahmedabad, magnitude (M) 7 3/4 earthquakes contribute most to the PGA and the 0.2- and 1-s spectral acceleration ground motion maps at the two considered hazard levels.     

Co‐seismic Faults and Geological Hazards and Incidence of Active Fault of Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake,Sichuan, China

Abstract: There are two co-seismic faults which developed when the Wenchuan earthquake happened. One occurred along the active fault zone in the central Longmen Mts. and the other in the front of Longmen Mts. The length of which is more than 270 km and about 80 km respectively. The co-seismic fault shows a reverse flexure belt with strike of N45°–60°E in the ground, which caused uplift at its northwest side and subsidence at the southeast. The fault face dips to the northwest with a dip angle ranging from 50° to 60°. The vertical offset of the co-seismic fault ranges 2.5–3.0 m along the Yingxiu-Beichuan co-seismic fault, and 1.5–1.1 m along the Doujiangyan-Hanwang fault. Movement of the co-seismic fault presents obvious segmented features along the active fault zone in central Longmen Mts. For instance, in the section from Yingxiu to Leigu town, thrust without evident slip occurred; while from Beichuan to Qingchuan, thrust and dextral strike-slip take place. Main movement along the front Longmen Mts. shows thrust without slip and segmented features. The area of earthquake intensity more than IX degree and the distribution of secondary geological hazards occurred along the hanging wall of co-seismic faults, and were consistent with the area of aftershock, and its width is less than 40km from co-seismic faults in the hanging wall. The secondary geological hazards, collapses, landslides, debris flows et al., concentrated in the hanging wall of co-seismic fault within 0–20 km from co-seismic fault.     

Seismic faults in the Aegean area

Reliable fault plane solutions of shallow earthquakes and information on surface fault traces in combination with other seismic, geomorphological and geological information have been used to determine the orientation and other properties of the seismic faults in the Aegean and surrounding area.Thrust faults having an about NW-SE strike occur in the outer seismic zone along western Albania-westernmost part of mainland of Greece-Ionian Sea-south of Crete-south of Rhodes.The inner part of the area is dominated by strike-slip and normal faulting. Strike-slip with an about NE-SW slip direction occurs in the inner part of the Hellenic arc along the line Peloponnesus-Cyclades-Dodecanese-southwest Turkey as well as along a zone which is associated with the northern Aegean trough and the northwesternmost part of Anatolia. All other regions in the inner part of the area are characterized by normal faulting. The slip direction of the normal faults has an about SW-NE direction in Crete (N38°E) and an about E-W direction (N81°E) in a zone which trends N-S in eastern Albania and its extension to western mainland of Greece. In all other regions (central Greece-southern Yugoslavia and Bulgaria, western Turkey) the slip of the normal faults has an about N-S direction.     

Changes in rate of fault creep

Aseismic slip or fault creep is occurring on many faults in California. Although the creep rates are generally less than 10 mm/yr in most regions, the maximum observed rate along the San Andreas fault between San Juan Bautista and Gold Hill in central California exceeds 30 mm/yr. Changes in slip rates along a 162 km segment of the San Andreas fault in this region have occurred at approximately the same time at up to nine alinement array sites. Rates of creep on the fault near the epicenters of moderate earthquakes (M_L 4–6) vary for periods of several years, decreasing before the main shocks and increasing thereafter, in agreement with prior observations based on creepmeter results. The change of surface slip rate is most pronounced within the epicentral region defined by aftershocks, but records from sites at distances up to 100 km show similar variations. Additionally, some variations in rate, also apparently consistent among many sites, have a less obvious relation with seismic activity and have usually taken place over shorter periods. Not all sites exhibit a significant variation in rate at the time of a regional change, and the amplitudes of the change at nearby sites are not consistently related. The time intervals between measurements at the nine array sites during a given period have not always been short with respect to the intervals between surveys at one site; hence, uneven sampling intervals may bias the results slightly. Anomalies in creep rates thus far observed, therefore, have not been demonstrably consistent precursors to moderate earthquakes; and in the cases when an earthquake has followed a long period change of rate, the anomaly has not specified time, place, or magnitude with a high degree of certainty. The consistency of rate changes may represent a large scale phenomenon that occurs along much of the San Andreas transform plate boundary.     

Analysis of the Wenchuan Ms8.0 Earthquake’s Co-seismic Stress and Displacement Change by Using the Finite Element Method

The variation of in situ stress before and after earthquakes is an issue studied by geologists. In this paper, on the basis of the fault slip dislocation model of Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake, the changes of co-seismic displacement and the distribution functions of stress tensor around the Longmen Shan fault zone are calculated. The results show that the co-seismic maximum surface displacement is 4.9 m in the horizontal direction and 6.5 m in the vertical direction, which is almost consistent with the on-site survey and GPS observations. The co-seismic maximum horizontal stress in the hanging wall and footwall decreased sharply as the distance from the Longmen Shan fault zone increased. However, the vertical stress and minimum horizontal stress increased in the footwall and in some areas of the hanging wall. The study of the co-seismic displacement and stress was mainly focused on the long and narrow region along the Longmen Shan fault zone, which coincides with the distribution of the earthquake aftershocks. Therefore, the co-seismic stress only affects the aftershocks, and does not affect distant faults and seismic activities. The results are almost consistent with in situ stress measurements at the two sites before and after Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake. Along the fault plane, the co-seismic shear stress in the dip direction is larger than that in the strike direction, which indicates that the faulting mechanism of the Longmen Shan fault zone is a dominant thrust with minor strike-slipping. The results can be used as a reference value for future studies of earthquake mechanisms.     

Geophysical methods applied to fault characterization and earthquake potential assessment in the Lower Tagus Valley, Portugal

The study region is located in the Lower Tagus Valley, central Portugal, and includes a large portion of the densely populated area of Lisbon. It is characterized by a moderate seismicity with a diffuse pattern, with historical earthquakes causing many casualties, serious damage and economic losses. Occurrence of earthquakes in the area indicates the presence of seismogenic structures at depth that are deficiently known due to a thick Cenozoic sedimentary cover. The hidden character of many of the faults in the Lower Tagus Valley requires the use of indirect methodologies for their study. This paper focuses on the application of high-resolution seismic reflection method for the detection of near-surface faulting on two major tectonic structures that are hidden under the recent alluvial cover of the Tagus Valley, and that have been recognized on deep oil-industry seismic reflection profiles and/or inferred from the surface geology. These are a WNW–ESE-trending fault zone located within the Lower Tagus Cenozoic basin, across the Tagus River estuary (Porto Alto fault), and a NNE–SSW-trending reverse fault zone that borders the Cenozoic Basin at the W (Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon fault). Vertical electrical soundings were also acquired over the seismic profiles and the refraction interpretation of the reflection data was carried out. According to the interpretation of the collected data, a complex fault pattern disrupts the near surface (first 400 m) at Porto Alto, affecting the Upper Neogene and (at least for one fault) the Quaternary, with a normal offset component. The consistency with the previous oil-industry profiles interpretation supports the location and geometry of this fault zone. Concerning the second structure, two major faults were detected north of Vila Franca de Xira, supporting the extension of the Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon fault zone northwards. One of these faults presents a reverse geometry apparently displacing Holocene alluvium. Vertical offsets of the Holocene sediments detected in the studied geophysical data of Porto Alto and Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon faults imply minimum slip rates of 0.15–0.30 mm/year, three times larger than previously inferred for active faults in the Lower Tagus Valley and maximum estimates of average return periods of 2000–5000 years for M 6.5–7 co-seismic ruptures.     

Clay–clast aggregates in fault gouge: An unequivocal indicator of seismic faulting at shallow depths?

A common problem encountered in studies of gouge-bearing natural faults is the difficulty of ascertaining whether the observed gouge was sheared seismically or aseismically; this problem arises because of the scarcity of indicators of fault slip rates for gouge. Recently, clay–clast aggregates (CCAs; a CCA comprises a clastic core mantled by a rim of ultrafine particles) were proposed as a possible indicator of seismic slip in gouge, on the basis of shear experiments on gouge at seismic slip rates. To examine the processes and conditions of CCA formation, we conducted rotary shear experiments on quartz and quartz–bentonite gouges under normal stresses (0.3–3.0 MPa) and slip rates (0.0005–1.3 m s⁻¹), and in both room-humidity (room-dry) and water-saturated (wet) conditions. We found that CCAs could be produced in room-dry gouges even at the lowest slip rates, which are considerably slower than actual seismic slip rates. This finding demonstrates that thermal pressurization and fluidization at elevated temperature during seismic slip are not necessarily needed for the formation of CCAs, contrary to previous views. Given the occurrence of CCAs over a wide range of slip rates, we suggest that the presence of CCAs is not an unequivocal indicator of fault slip at seismic slip rates.     

Parameters of Coseismic Reverse‐ and Oblique‐Slip Surface Ruptures of the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake,Eastern Tibetan Plateau

Abstract: On May 12th, 2008, the Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake ruptured the Beichuan, Pengguan and Xiaoyudong faults simultaneously along the middle segment of the Longmenshan thrust belt at the eastern margin of the Tibetan plateau. Field investigations constrain the surface rupture pattern, length and offsets related to the Wenchuan earthquake. The Beichuan fault has a NE-trending right-lateral reverse rupture with a total length of 240 km. Reassessment yields a maximum vertical offset of 6.5±0.5 m and a maximum right-lateral offset of 4.9±0.5 m for its northern segment, which are the largest offsets found; the maximum vertical offset is 6.2±0.5 m for its southern segment. The Pengguan fault has a NE-trending pure reverse rupture about 72 km long with a maximum vertical offset of about 3.5 m. The Xiaoyudong fault has a NW-striking left-lateral reverse rupture about 7 km long between the Beichuan and Pengguan faults, with a maximum vertical offset of 3.4 m and left-lateral offset of 3.5 m. This pattern of multiple co-seismic surface ruptures is among the most complicated of recent great earthquakes and presents a much larger danger than if they ruptured individually. The rupture length is the longest for reverse faulting events ever reported.     

The instrumental seismicity of the Jordan Dead Sea transform

The instrumental seismicity that occurred in the Jordan Dead Sea transform region during the period 1900–2014 is compiled from all available sources. Some 492 phosphate mining explosions (M ≤ 3.9) are recognized and filtered from the data. Excluding these, it is found that 4448 earthquakes have occurred with magnitudes M ≥ 3.0. Only 572, 18 and 2 of these had magnitudes M ≥ 4, 5, and 6 in respective order. Average recurrence periods for the 5 and 6 magnitudes are 6.3 and 57 years. Much of these have occurred in sequences and swarms. The epicentral distribution of the compiled instrumental seismicity data shows very good correlation with the general tectonics of the study region. All tectonic elements are active in the present with a noticeable hazard. The regional strike-slip faults of the transform proper remain the major sources of this hazard. They account for not less than 99% of the seismic energy released from all instrumental data. The calculated a-parameter of the whole transform is 6.6. It varies for all its strike-slip faults mostly in the range 6.0–6.6. The b-value of the whole transform and some of its major segments is 1.0. Others show b-variations in the range of 1.1–1.3. Such a- and b-values imply recurrence periods of 38 years and 395 years for the 6 and 7 magnitude earthquakes. Such values, their variations and the seismic moment calculations clearly indicate an appreciable level of seismic hazard associated with all segments. This hazard appears to be highest for Al Ghab segment, followed by Beqa’a and Wadi Araba segments, respectively. The other three segments appear to be of lower hazard. The seismicity of this region is very shallow. More than 99% of the seismic energy has been released from the brittle granitic upper crust whose thickness is about 21 km and its Poisson’s ratio is 0.25. More than 93.6% of the energy was released from its upper 10 km. Very little energy is released from the underlying ductile basaltic crust whose Poisson’s ratio is 0.29. The calculated seismic slip rate along the Whole Jordan Dead Sea transform is 0.54 cm/year if the fault depth is assumed 10 km. It increases to 0.77 and 1.07 cm/year if the fault depth is reduced to 7 and 5 km, respectively. These slip rates are comparable with the long-term geologically deduced rate of 1 cm/year.     

2008年汶川地震同震滑移特征、最大滑移量及构造意义

2008年汶川地震（M_s8.0）形成了迄今为止空间上分布最为复杂、长度最大的逆冲型同震地表破裂带。沿约275km长的地表破裂带的同震滑移及其最大滑移量的确定,对认识和理解汶川地震地表破裂过程及其变形机制具有重要意义。我们沿地表破裂带进行了详细的滑移特征考察及其同震位移测量,发现沿映秀-北川破裂带分布南北两个滑移峰值区段,南段以深溪沟-虹口破裂段为中心,以逆冲为主伴随右旋走滑运动为特征,最大垂直位移量为6.0～6.7m,北段以北川破裂段为中心,以右旋走滑为主伴随逆冲运动为特征,最大垂直位移量为11～12m,南北两滑移峰值区段所代表的两次地表破裂事件与地震波数据反演结果一致。通过对北川段破裂带的精细地形剖面测量,以及地震前后对比,在北川县曲山镇沙坝村一组获得该破裂段的最大右旋水平位移为12～15m,最大垂直位移为11～12m,这是目前世界上一次地震产生的最大同震垂直位移,最大斜向滑移量为14～17m,为整个汶川地震地表破裂最大滑移量,是汶川地震的宏观震中。北川破裂段高角度的地震断裂、逆冲断裂面的倒转作用以及具最大滑移量的强烈变形作用是北川县城遭受到最强的地表破坏和地质灾害的主要原因。具有走滑量和逆冲量近一致（走滑水平位移/逆冲垂直位移比值为1）的斜向逆冲作用可能是山脉快速隆升的重要机制。     

Slip rate of trench‐parallel normal faulting along the Mejillones Fault (Atacama Fault System): Relationships with the northern Chile subduction and implications for seismic hazards

The recent tectonics of the arid northern Chile Andean western forearc is characterized by trench‐parallel normal faults within the Atacama Fault System (AFS). Since the 1995‐Mw 8.1 Antofagasta earthquake, the mechanism driving this recent and localized extension is considered to be associated with the seismic cycle within the subduction zone. Analyzing morphotectonic patterns along these faults allows examining the seismic potential associated with the subduction zone. Using field Digital Elevation Models and in situ‐produced cosmogenic ¹⁰Be, we determined a 0.2 mm/a long‐term slip rate along the Mejillones Fault, one of the most prominent structures within the AFS. This result suggests that the AFS corresponds to slow slip rate faults despite the rapid subduction context. However, the size of coseismic slips observed along the AFS faults suggests that larger subduction earthquakes (Mw > 8.1) may occur episodically in the area.     

A new geological slip rate estimate for the Calico Fault,eastern California: implications for geodetic versus geologic rate estimates in the Eastern California Shear Zone

ABSTRACT

Accurate estimation of fault slip rate is fundamental to seismic hazard assessment. Previous work suggested a discrepancy between short-term geodetic and long-term geologic slip rates in the Mojave Desert section of the Eastern California Shear Zone (ECSZ). Understanding the origin of this discrepancy can improve understanding of earthquake hazard and fault evolution. We measured offsets in alluvial fans along the Calico Fault near Newberry Springs, California, and used several techniques to date the offset landforms and determine a slip rate. Our preferred slip rate estimate is 3.2 ± 0.4 mm/yr, representing an average over the last few hundred thousand years, faster than previous estimates. Seismic hazard associated with this fault may therefore be higher than previously assumed. We discuss possible biases in the various slip rate estimates and discuss possible reasons for the rate discrepancy. We suggest that the ECSZ discrepancy is an artefact of limited data, and represents a combination of faster slip on the Calico Fault, off-fault deformation, unmapped fault strands, and uncertainties in the geologic rates that have been underestimated. Assuming our new rate estimate is correct and a fair amount (40%) of off-fault deformation occurs on major ECSZ faults, the summed geologic rate estimate across the Mojave section of the ECSZ is 10.5 ± 3.1 mm/yr, which is equivalent within uncertainties to the geodetic rate estimate.     

Do static stress changes of a moderate‐magnitude earthquake significantly modify the regional seismic hazard? Hints from the L'Aquila 2009 normal‐faulting earthquake (Mw 6.3, central Italy)

We investigated the Coulomb stress changes in the active faults surrounding a moderate‐magnitude normal‐faulting earthquake (2009 L'Aquila, Mw 6.3) and the associated variations in the expected ground motion on regional probabilistic seismic hazard maps. We show that the static stress variations can locally increase the seismic hazard by modifying the expected mean recurrence time on neighbouring faults by up to ~290 years, with associated variations in the probability of occurrence of the maximum expected earthquake of up to ~2%. Our findings suggest that the increase in seismic hazard on neighbouring faults following moderate‐magnitude earthquakes is probably not sufficient to necessitate systematic upgrades of regional probabilistic seismic hazard maps, but must be considered to better address and schedule strategies for local‐scale mitigation of seismic risk.