Quantitative analysis of the impact of droughts and floods on internal wars in China over the last 500 years

Although many large-N quantitative studies have evidenced the adverse effects of climatic extremes on social stability in China during the historical period, most of them rely on temperature and precipitation as major explanatory variables, while the influence of floods and droughts on social crises is rarely measured. Furthermore, a comparison of the climate-society nexus among different geographic regions and at different temporal scales is missing in those studies. To address this knowledge gap,this study examines quantitatively the influence of floods and droughts on internal wars in three agro-ecological(rice, wheat,and pastoral) regions in China in AD1470–1911. Poisson regression and wavelet transform coherence analyses are applied to allow for the non-linear and non-stationary nature of the climate-war nexus. Results show that floods and droughts are significant in driving internal wars in historical China, but are characterized by strong regional variation. In the rice region, floods trigger internal wars at the inter-annual and multi-decadal time scales. In the wheat region, both floods and droughts cause internal wars at the inter-annual and multi-decadal time scales. In the pastoral region, internal wars are associated with floods only at the multi-decadal time scale. In addition, the multi-decadal coherence between hydro-climatic extremes and internal wars in all three of the agro-ecological regions is only significant in periods in which population density is increasing or the upper limit of regional carrying capacity is being reached. The above results imply that the climate-war nexus is mediated by regional geographic factors such as physical environmental setting and population pressure. Hence, we encourage researchers who study the historical human-climate relationship to boil down data according to geographic regions in the course of statistical analysis and to examine each region individually in follow-up studies.     

Relationship and its instability of ENSO--Chinese variations in droughts and wet spells

Monthly data of Self-Calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from 1951 to 2000 are calculated using historical precipitation and temperature data for Chinese 160 stations. Temporal and spatial pat-terns of the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of the PDSI reveals a fairly linear trend resulting from trends in precipitation and surface temperature, which is similar to the linear PDSI trend during 1951―2000 calculated using all monthly data. The EOF analysis also reveals that the leading mode correlates significantly with ENSO events in time and space. The ENSO EOF shows that during the typical warm phase of ENSO, surface conditions are drier in most regions of China, especially North China, but wetter than normal in the southern regions of Changjiang River, and Northwest China. During the typical cold phase of ENSO, these anomalies reverse sign. From 1951 to 2000, there are large multi-year to decadal variations in droughts and wet spells over China, which are all closely related to strong El Nio events. In other words, when one strong El Nio event happens, there is a possible big variability in droughts and wet spells over China on the multi-year or decadal scale. Studies also sug-gest that during the last 2―3 decades climate changes over China, especially North China's drying and northwest China's wetting, are closely related to the shift in ENSO towards warmer events and global warming since the late 1970s. The instability of the relationship is also studied. It is revealed that there is a good correlation between ENSO and Chinese variations in droughts and wet spells in the 3―8-year band, but the correlation between ENSO and Chinese variations in droughts and wet spells is instable. Studies suggest that there are decadal changes in the correlation: the wavelet coherency between ENSO and Chinese variations in droughts and wet spells is high during 1951―1962 and 1976―1991, but low during 1963―1975 and 1992―2000.     

A systems dynamic model of a coal-based city with multiple adaptive scenarios: A case study of Ordos,China

Cities based on coal resources have increasingly important social and economic roles in China. Their strategies for sustainable development, however, urgently need to be improved, which represents a huge challenge. Most observers believe that the continued progress of these cities relies on the optimization of scientific adaptive management in which social, economic, and ecological factors are incorporated. A systems perspective that combines policies, management priorities, and long-term policy impacts needs to be applied. To date, however, such an approach has not been adopted, which means it is difficult to implement adaptive management at the regional scale. In this study, we used various situations to develop a multiple adaptive scenario system dynamics model. We then simulated a range of policy scenarios, with Ordos in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region as a case study. Simulation results showed that the current strategy is not sustainable and predicted that the system would exceed the environmental capacity, with risks of resource exhaustion and urban decline in 2025–2035. Five critical policy variables, including the urban population carrying capacity, rates of water consumption and water recycling, and expansion of urban land cover, were identified during sensitivity analysis. We developed and compared six socio-economic scenarios. The urban area, represented by the urban population density, seemed to transition through five different stages, namely natural growth, rapid growth, stable oscillation, fading, and rebalancing. Our scenarios suggested that different policies had different roles through each stage. The water use efficiency management policy had a comprehensive far-reaching influence on the system behavior; land urbanization management functions dominated at the start, and population capacity management was a major control in the mid-term. Our results showed that the water recycling policy and the urban population carrying capacity were extremely important, and both should be reinforced and evaluated by the local governments.     

Rising grain prices in response to phased climatic change during 1736–1850 in the North China Plain

Grain price volatility during historical periods is regarded as an important indicator of the impact of climate change on economic system, as well as a key link to adjust food security and social stability. The present study used the wheat prices in Baoding Prefecture, China, during 1736–1850 to explore connections between climatic transition and grain price anomalies in the North China Plain. The main findings were as follows:(1) The grain price change showed an apparent correspondence with climatic transition. The period 1781–1820 was a transition phase, with more extremes and decreased precipitations when the climate shifted from a warm phase to a cold one. Corresponding with the climatic transition, the grain price during 1781–1820 was characterized by that the mean of the original grain price series was significantly higher(lower) than the previous(later)phase, and the variance and anomaly amplitude of the detrended grain price series was the highest during 1736–1850.(2) The correspondence between grain price extremes and drought events occurred in phases. Five grain price extremes occurred following drought events during 1781–1810, while extreme droughts were the direct cause of the grain price spike during 1811–1820.(3) Social stability affected by climate change also played an important role in the grain price spike between 1811 and 1820. Paralleling the pathway of "precipitation-grain production-grain price", climate change could have an impact on grain price via the pathway of "precipitation-grain production-grain price-famine-uprising-grain price", as shown during the Tianli Uprising in 1813. These findings could contribute to an improved understanding of the interaction between climate change and human society during the historical period.     

The housing loss assessment of rural villages caused by earthquake disaster in Yunnan Province

Introduction In accordance with the systematical theory of natural disaster, the intensity of disaster-causing factor and the frangibility of the disaster-bearing body decide the disaster degree (SHI, 1991, 2002). The building facilities is the uppermost disaster-bearing body in the earthquake disaster system, as the population and fortune in the city are concentrated, the density of the housings is large, the antiseismic and disaster reduction of the city have always been an important aspect…     

Correlation between the seismicity parameters

Though the forecast and prediction of earthquakes is a commonly accepted difficult problem in science, the step towards the exploration and knowledge of the generation and occurrence of earthquakes has never stopped. It has strong scientific exploration nature and great social efficacy in disaster reduction. For this reason, it has always been the object and motivation pursued assiduously by earthquake researchers. It is beyond doubt that the study of seismicity is still one of the important information sources that have historical records of the longest time and most abundant earthquake cases that can be testified. For many years, with the progress of study in this aspect and the unceasing increase of study methods, there have been not less than tens of methods that can be used to describe theseismicity characteristics from different angles. It is of great importance to determine from the numerous methods those ones that are relatively independent and to understand how many dimensions are there to restrict the complexsystem of earthquake generation and occurrence. Taking these as a referential basis, we would be able to identify the quantities that restrict the study of the seismogenic system, to raise the scientific value and rigorousness of prediction and forecast, and to get rid of the trouble of repeated information superposition.     

A shake table investigation of dynamic behavior of pile supported bridges in liquefiable soil deposits

Bridges are a part of vital infrastructure,which should operate even after a disaster to keep emergency services running.There have been numerous bridge failures during major past earthquakes due to liquefaction.Among other categories of failures,mid span collapse(without the failure of abutments)of pile supported bridges founded in liquefiable deposits are still observed even in most recent earthquakes.This mechanism of collapse is attributed to the effects related to the differential elongation of natural period of the individual piers during liquefaction.A shake table investigation has been carried out in this study to verify mechanisms behind midspan collapse of pile supported bridges in liquefiable deposits.In this investigation,a typical pile supported bridge is scaled down,and its foundations pass through the liquefiable loose sandy soil and rest in a dense gravel layer.White noise motions of increasing acceleration magnitude have been applied to initiate progressive liquefaction and to characterize the dynamic features of the bridge.It has been found that as the liquefaction of the soil sets in,the natural frequency of individual bridge support is reduced,with the highest reduction occurring near the central spans.As a result,there is differential lateral displacement and bending moment demand on the piles.It has also been observed that for the central pile,the maximum bending moment in the pile will occur at a higher elevation,as compared to that of the interface of soils of varied stiffness,unlike the abutment piles.The practical implications of this research are also highlighted.     

Reduction of earthquake disasters

The article summarizes the researches on mitigating earthquake disasters of the past four years in China. The studyof earthquake disasters′ quantification shows that the losses increase remarkably when population concentrates inurban area and social wealth increase. The article also summarizes some new trends of studying earthquake disas-ters′ mitigation, which are from seismic hazard to seismic risk, from engineering disaster to social disaster andintroduces the community-centered approach.     

Countermeasures for and Experiences in Seismic Hazard Mitigation in Uganda

For earthquake-prone countries of the world, it is crucial to develop countermeasures and to share experiences in seismic hazard mitigation. The measures for seismic hazard mitigation are related to many factors, e.g., social, economic, and political. Research focused on modern science and technology paves the way for a better understanding of the earthquake phenomenon and helps to plan against its effects in seismically active areas.In this paper, we consider some of the events that occurred in earthquake-prone countries, both developing and developed, which caused devastation to the society and economy. These are mainly major events that have affected a considerable portion of the gross domestic product of these economies.Measures to mitigate seismic hazard are stressed and suggested. In addition, experiences in seismic hazard mitigation in Uganda and the rest of the world are discussed in general terms. Attention is given to geotectonic settings as well as the work of seismic hazard and disaster mana     

Seasonal drought effects on carbon sequestration of a mid-subtropical planted forest of southeastern China

Continuous measurement of carbon dioxide exchange using the eddy covariance (EC) technique is made at the Qianyanzhou mid-subtropical planted forest as part of the ChinaFLUX network. Qianyanzhou planted forest is affected by typical subtropical continental monsoon climate. It has plentiful water and heat resource but is in inconsistency of its seasonal distribution in the mid-subtropical region, thus seasonal drought frequently occurs in this planted forest. In this study, seasonal drought effect on ecosystem carbon sequestration was analyzed based on net ecosystem productivity (NEP), ecosystem respiration (RE) and gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) at the month scale in 2003 and 2004. In this drought-stressed planted forest, ecosystem carbon sequestration showed a clear seasonality, with low rates during seasonal drought and in winter. The declining degree of ecosystem carbon sequestration under the seasonal drought condition was determined by the accumulation of soil moisture deficits and a co-occurrence of high temperatures. Different drought effects are expected for RE and GEP. The net effect of ecosystem carbon balance depends on how these two quantities are affected relatively to each other. Summer drought and heat wave are two aspects of weather that likely play an important part in the annual NEP of forest in this region.     

A fast approach to regional earthquake hazard evaluation based on population statistical data

In the prediction process of large-scale earthquake damage occurred in urban and rural regions,new models and approaches,which are different from traditional ones,should be adopted to rapidly predict earthquake damage. This article utilizes sampled population and buildings data that is easily available from the statistical database to conduct vulnerability analysis of buildings on the basis of earthquake damage of existing urban buildings in an analogical way,so as to provide a relation model between population data and disaster losses. In virtue of this model,the average vulnerability matrix of buildings of different structures in Fujian Province is established,the matrix adjustment coefficient of different decades is developed in accordance with the economic conditions,and the rapid evaluation system is set up as well. The result shows: this evaluation model,based on the population statistical data has merits as small investment,automatic data prediction,regular updates,as well as the advantage of easy accessibility.     

现今地震预警技术及其在国内的发展探讨

Earthquake Early Warning ( EEW) has come to attention,as earthquake prediction is still unreliable. The paper comprehensively illustrates the research status and important issues of EEW from the aspects of concept,composition and method. By analyzing the status of EEW in China,we find that the essential requirements have been met for building earthquake early warning systems in the country in terms of government and social needs, network construction and basic research. The technical difficulties and non-technical challenges in implementing EEW in China are evaluated, and some suggestions are proposed regarding the relevant legal measures,public education and protection against earthquake disasters. so as to bring into full play the role of the EEW system in earthquake disaster prevention and reduction.     

Global vulnerability to agricultural drought and its spatial characteristics

As an important part of agricultural drought risk, agricultural drought vulnerability helps effectively prevent and alleviate drought impacts by quantifying the vulnerability as well as identifying its spatial distribution characteristics. In this study, global agricultural cultivation regions were chosen as the study area; six main crops(wheat, maize, rice, barley, soybean,sorghum) were selected as the hazard-affected body of agricultural drought. Then, global vulnerability to agricultural drought was assessed at a 0.5° resolution and finally, its distribution characteristics were revealed. The results indicated that the area percentages of different grades of global vulnerability to agricultural drought from low to very high were 38.96%, 28.41%,25.37%, and 7.26%, respectively. This means that the total area percentage of high and very high vulnerability zones exceeded30% of the study area. Although high and very high vulnerability zones were mainly distributed in arid and semi-arid regions,approximately 40% of those above were distributed in humid and semi-humid regions. In addition, only about 15% of the population in this study was located in the high vulnerability regions. Among the vulnerability factors, water deficit during the growing season and the irrigation area ratio are the key factors affecting regional vulnerability. Therefore, the vulnerability could be reduced by adjusting crop planting dates and structures as well as by improving irrigation level and capacity.     

Portable rainfall simulator for plot-scale investigation of rainfall-runoff,and transport of sediment and pollutants

A low-cost, simple to use portable rainfall simulator is developed for use over a 5 m^2 plot. The simulator is easy to transport and assemble in the field, thereby allowing for necessary experimental replicates to be done. It provides rainfall intensities of between 20 and 100 mm/h by changing the number and type of silicon nozzles used. The Christiansen coefficient of uniformities obtained in the field are appropriate and vary from 79 to 94% for rainfall intensities ranging from 30 to 70 mm/h. In addition, the median volumetric drop diameters measured for rainfall intensities of 30, 50, and 70 mm/h are in the lower range of that of natural rainfall and equal to 1.10 ± 0.08,1.69 ± 0.21, and 1.66 ± 0.20 mm, respectively. The velocities of the raindrops with diameters less than 1.2 mm reached terminal velocities, while raindrops less than 2.0 mm achieved velocities reasonably close to the terminal velocity of natural rainfall. Furthermore,the average time-specific kinetic energy(KET) for rainfall intensities of 30, 50, and 70 mm/h are 257.7,760.1, and 1645.2 J/m^2/h, respectively accounting for about 78.0 and 86.5% of the KET of natural rainfall for50 and 70 mm/h rainfall intensity, respectively. The applicability of the portable rainfall simulator for herbicide transport study is investigated using two herbicides(atrazine and metolachlor); herbicide losses in runoff and sediment samples are in the ranges reported in the literature. As a percentage of the amount of herbicide applied, 5.29% of atrazine and 2.15% of metolachlor are lost due to combined water and sediment runoff. The results show that the portable rainfall simulator can be effectively used in studying processes such as pesticide runoff, infiltration mechanisms, and sediment generation and transport at a field plot scale with an emphasis on how surface characteristics such as slope and soil properties affect these processes.     

Extracting predictable components and forecasting techniques in extended-range numerical weather prediction

This paper refers to the CNOP-related algorithms and formulates the practical method and forecast techniques of extracting predictable components in a numerical model for predictable components on extended-range scales.Model variables are divided into predictable components and unpredictable chaotic components from the angle of model prediction error growth.The predictable components are defined as those with a slow error growth at a given range.A targeted numerical model for predictable components is established based on the operational dynamical extended-range forecast(DERF)model of the National Climate Center.At the same time,useful information in historical data are combined to find the fields for predictable components in the numerical model that are similar to those for the predictable components in historical data,reducing the variable dimensions in a similar judgment process and further correcting prediction errors of predictable components.Historical data is used to obtain the expected value and variance of the chaotic components through the ensemble forecast method.The numerical experiment results show that this method can effectively improve the forecast skill of the atmospheric circulation field in the 10–30 days extended-range numerical model and has good prospects for operational applications.     

Gridded reconstruction of the population in the traditional cultivated region of China from 1776 to 1953

Using modern census and environmental factor data,this study first identified the environmental factors that significantly affect the population distribution through Geodetector analysis and then constructed a population spatial distribution model based on the random forest regression algorithm.Finally,with this model and historical population data that were examined and corrected by historians,gridded population distributions with a spatial resolution of 10 km by 10 km in the traditional cultivated region of China(TCRC,hereafter)were reconstructed for six time slices from 1776 to 1953.Using the reconstruction dataset,the spatiotemporal characteristics of the population distribution were depicted.The results showed that(1)the environmental factors that significantly affected the population density differences among counties in the TCRC mainly consisted of elevation,slope,relief amplitude,distances to the nearest prefectural and provincial capitals,distance to the nearest river and the climatology moisture index.(2)Using the census data of 1934 counties in the TCRC in 2000 and the abovementioned environmental factor data,a random forest regression algorithm-based population spatial distribution model was constructed.Its determination coefficient(R²)is 0.81.In 88.4%of the counties(districts),the relative errors of the model predictions were less than 50%.(3)From 1776 to 1953,the total population in the study area showed an uptrend.Prior to 1851,the population increased mainly in the Yangtze River Delta.During this period,the number of grid cells in which the population densities were greater than 500 persons per km² increased from 292 to 683.From 1851 to 1953,the population increased extensively across the study area.In the North China Plain and the Pearl River Delta,the number of grid cells in which the population densities were greater than 500 persons per km² increased from 36 to 88 and from 4 to 35,respectively.The spatial clustering pattern of the population distribution varied temporally.The potential reasons included the shifts in economic development hot spots,traditional beliefs,wars,famine,and immigration policies.(4)Between our reconstructions and the HYDE dataset,there are large differences in the data sources,selected environmental factors and modeling methods.As a consequence,in comparison to our reconstructions,there were fewer populations in the eastern area and more populations in the western area from 1776 to 1851 and more populations in urban areas and fewer populations in rural areas after 1851 in the HYDE dataset.     

Review of the 2018 Palu Tsunami:Disaster Behavior and Reflections on Disaster Management

The 2018 Palu M_W7.5 earthquake and tsunami attracted geophysicists'' attention for its strike slip focal mechanism and magnitude. We inspected the details of this disaster and discussed its particularity and possible causations. The submarine landslide and special terrain conditions could have contributed to the unusual size of the tsunami. The early warning system and the post disaster response is also reviewed. Efficient social warnings and broadcast systems along with good maintenance is essential. We also found that enhancing publics scientific literacy is the most important way to reduce disaster damage and casualties. Moreover, social conditions and rebuilding difficulties post tsunami are related as reference resources for future disaster management strategies.     

Climate change,migration, and regional administrative reform: A case study of Xinjiang in the middle Qing Dynasty(1760–1884)

Based on historical records of extreme climate events and population densities in Gansu and Shaanxi, and information on climate change, populations, new cultivated cropland, and administrative system reform in Xinjiang, this study explores the interaction between climate change, migration, and regional administrative reform in the middle Qing Dynasty. The results showed that the surge in population migration from Gansu and Shaanxi to Xinjiang during 1760–1820 was caused by extreme climate events(droughts and floods) and population pressure in Gansu and Shaanxi. During 1760–1880, the climate in Xinjiang was unusually cold and humid, which was highly conducive to abundant regional water resources. This provided favorable conditions for farmland irrigation and further promoted agricultural cultivation, population growth, and town development within this region. Additionally,the interactions between climate change and the above-mentioned social factors, which acted as driving forces, spurred the reform in the administrative system of Xinjiang whereby the military administration system was transformed to a province administration system. Through this reform, the Qing government managed to restore peace and stability in Xinjiang. This study contributes to a better understanding of climate-related population migration and enhances our knowledge of the impact-response chain between climate change, ancient social developments, and political coping strategies, especially in regional administrative reform.     

Intensity-frequency Estimation Based on Historical Seismic Intensity in the Yunnan Area

For earthquake disaster mitigation,we use historical records and more complete intensity investigation data from 1500 to 2015 to analyze and estimate the seismic intensity and frequency of the earthquake-prone areas in Yunnan. We digitized intensity observations and divided the Yunnan region into cell size of 0. 2°× 0. 2° to calculate the seismic intensity-frequency relationship for each cell. Combined with a repeated cycle of intensity of one hundred years and population economics data in Yunnan,we analyze future areas of concern. The results can provide a reference for earthquake hazardous area zoning.This method is based on historical earthquake data,reducing as much as possible the various hypotheses for the assessment,and thus can concisely reflect the different intensityfrequency distributions of the region.     

Zhang Heng’s Seismoscope(3):Disappearance & Scientific Value

The ancient idea of Heavenly Punishment confused natural phenomena with social issues,which resulted in Zhang Heng’s tragedy in his later years and seismoscope. The instrument might have been lost in the end of the Eastern Han Dynasty. A series of extremely serious chaotic social events caused by war took place,such as a fire in Luoyang,forging coins by destroying copper wares,relocation of the capital,sharp population decrease,and the destruction of the Ling Observatory. Zhang’s scientific thought and successful practice had played an important role in ideological enlightenments at the primary stage of modern seismology at the end of the nineteenth century. There is a glorious course of"innovation—inheritance—re-innovation"of scientific and technical development from the inception Zhang Heng’s seismoscope to the modern seismograph invented by Milne,et al.