华北平原末次冰盛期以来典型时段古环境格局

重建典型时段区域气候和植被空间格局变化,是评估未来增温背景下生态环境变化和响应过程的重要基础.文章基于AMS 14C定年技术和孢粉分析,获得了华北平原白洋淀等6个剖面末次冰盛期以来的气候-植被变化历史.结合区内已有孢粉记录,重建了华北平原末次冰盛期和全新世暖期的古环境格局.结果显示,华北平原区域植被变化受气候条件、地貌景观和人类活动等因素共同影响:末次冰盛期,华北平原气候寒冷干旱,南部山地发育针阔混交林和落叶-常绿阔叶林,北部山地生长耐寒针叶林-针阔混交林,森林面积相对较小;平原南部生长中生或湿生草甸,北部发育温带草原-荒漠草原;滨海区陆架大面积出露,生长藜科为主的盐生植物.全新世暖期,华北平原气候温暖湿润,南部山地发育落叶阔叶林或落叶-常绿阔叶混交林,伴生有喜暖亚热带属种,北部山地生长落叶阔叶林,部分喜暖湿植物常有出现,森林面积相对增加;平原腹地草本植物仍占优势,森林面积较小且难以形成地带性森林景观;受海平面上升影响,滨海区原有盐生植被向内陆收缩;此外,这一时期华北平原人类活动范围扩大、农业生产频繁,对区内自然植被产生了一定影响.文章为中国北方古气候数值模拟、区域碳循环评估和未来增温背景下区域生态环境变化预测等提供了基础数据和科学依据.     

末次冰盛期中国气候要素定量重建

古气候定量化是古全球变化研究的核心目标之一.重建末次冰盛期时段((18±2)ka14C)气候变化特征,对理解冰期-间冰期地球气候演化规律具有重要的意义.以往古气候要素定量重建,主要基于现代气候条件下孢粉-气候的统计学方法,因难以有效区分过去气候季节性变化和大气CO2浓度降低对植物生长的影响,导致重建结果可能存在不确定性.本研究基于植物生理过程、新一代古气候定量重建的植被反演方法,考虑上述环境因子对植物生长的影响,利用新完善的中国第四纪孢粉数据库,重建了古气候的空间格局.结果表明,在末次冰盛期,大气CO2浓度降低对中国古气候要素重建结果影响不显著;全国年均温比现在低约(5.6±0.8)℃,最冷月温度和最热月温度分别降低约(11.0±1.6)℃和(2.6±0.9)℃,且中国南方降温幅度达到约(5.5±0.5)℃,接近平均值的水平,年均温变化主要归因于冬季温度的降低;全国年降水量比现在低约(46.3±17.8)mm,其中北方降水减少约(51.2±21.4)mm,年降水变化主要源于夏季降水的减少.与古气候模拟结果的对比揭示,虽然现有模式能较好模拟年均气候模态,但是在季节性变化上与重建结果还有较大的差距,指示未来在提高古气候重建精度的同时需进一步加强古气候模式的季节性气候模拟能力.     

Quantitative climatic reconstruction of the Last Glacial Maximum in China

Quantitative paleoclimatic reconstruction is crucial for understanding the operation and evolution of the global climate system.For example,a quantitative paleoclimatic reconstruction for the Last Glacial Maximum(18±2 ka~(14)C,LGM)is fundamental to understanding the evolution of Earth’s climate during the last glacial-interglacial cycle.Previous quantitative palaeoclimate reconstructions in China are generally based on statistical comparison of modern pollen assemblages and modern climate data.These methods are based on the premise that vegetation-climate interactions remain the same through time,and implicitly assume that the interactions are independent of changes in seasonality and atmospheric CO_2concentration.However,these assumptions may not always be valid,which may affect the reconstructions.Here,we present the results of a quantitative study of the LGM climate of China based on an improved inverse vegetation model which incorporates physiological processes combined with a new China Quaternary Pollen Database.The results indicate that during the LGM,mean annual temperature(ANNT),mean temperature of the coldest month(MTCO)and mean temperature of the warmest month in China were lower by～5.6±0.8,～11.0±1.6 and～2.6±0.9°C,respectively,compared to today,and that the changes in ANNT were mainly due to the decrease of MTCO.The ANNT decrease in southern China was～5.5±0.5°C.Mean annual precipitation was lower by～46.3±17.8 mm compared to today and was especially low in northern China(～51.2±21.4 mm)due to the decrease in summer rainfall.Comparison of our results with recent outputs from paleoclimatic modelling reveals that while the latter are broadly consistent with our estimated changes in mean annual climatic parameters,there are substantial differences in the seasonal climatic parameters.Our results highlight the crucial importance of developing seasonal simulation on paleoclimatic models,as well as the need to improve the quality of paleoclimatic reconstructions based on proxy records from geological archives.     

The vegetation feature and palaeoenvironment significance in the mountainous interior of southern China from the Last Glacial Maximum

Palynological records were selected from the profiles of three research sites in the mountainous interior of southern China(Dajiuhu at Shennongjia in the western part of Hubei Province, Dahu in the Nanling Mountains, and Gantang in the northern part of Fujian Province). It can be inferred that the forest vegetation growing in the south of the Qinling Mountains-Huaihe River was luxuriant during the late glaciation. The species succession with ecological significance in palaeoflora(Abies sp., Fagus sp. and Alnus sp.) revealed that there was a certain amount of precipitation and effective humidity in the mountain lands between Qinling Mountains-Huaihe River and Nanling Mountains. This ecological environment favored the zonal distribution of mountainous forest vegetation. The late glacial maximum featured a cold, wet climate that completely differed from the cold-dry climate on the Loess Plateau, and on the steppe and desert steppe of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Besides being influenced by the predominant factors driving the Northern Hemisphere climate, the cold-wet climate feature of the mountainous interior of southern China was closely associated with some geographical factors such as the latitudinal position, proximity to the ocean, and the topography and landforms.     

Vegetation pattern of Northeast China during the special periods since the Last Glacial Maximum

Since the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM), the global climate has experienced several stages, such as cold and warming events, which provide an ideal model for evaluating climate change in the future. Based on the pollen records in Northeast(NE) China, the vegetation pattern during special periods since the LGM was reconstructed in this work. During the LGM(approximately 18,000 cal yr BP), the steppes expanded rapidly in NE China, and a cold-dry meadow-steppe developed on the Songnen Plain. The Liaohe Plain and the Hulun Buir Plateau were occupied by a steppe-desert, with forest-steppe vegetation grown in the central and southern plains; there were cold-dry coniferous forests and mixed conifer-broadleaf forests in mountainous areas. In the early Holocene(10,000–9,000 cal yr BP), Changbai mountain(CBM) forests thrived in the eastern hilly area and the Sanjiang Plain, while the central region was dominated by steppes, and warm-temperate broadleaf forests developed northward. During the Holocene warm period(approximately 6,000 cal yr BP), CBM forests and cold-temperate coniferous forests developed in the north, while spruce-fir forests developed in the eastern Xiao Hinggan Mountains and the Sanjiang Plain. The distribution centre of deciduous broadleaf forests migrated to the south of the Changbai Mountains and the Liaodong Peninsula. The isolated woodlands increased on the Songnen Plain and the meadow-steppes expanded to the Liaohe Plain. Therefore, the increase in temperature leads to the increase of monsoon precipitation in NE China, which is beneficial to the development of warm-temperate forest vegetation. The increase of summer monsoons and precipitation caused by climate warming may be the main reason for the improved plant load.     

末次盛冰期以来中国东北地区特征时期植被格局

末次盛冰期以来气候环境经历了低温-升温-高温等诸多场景,成为评估未来气候变化的理想相似型.基于中国东北地区花粉记录,重建末次盛冰期以来特征时期植被格局,为预测未来气候环境变化影响下的生态环境格局提供依据.末次盛冰期(~18000cal a BP),东北地区草原植被急剧扩张,松嫩平原形成大面积的寒旱草甸草原,辽河平原和呼伦贝尔高原也被草原和荒漠占据,中南部平原发育森林草原植被;山地存在寒旱型针叶林和寒温性针阔叶混交林.早全新世阶段(10000~9000cal a BP),东北地区东部山地丘陵区和三江平原地区为针阔叶混交林植被,中部地区仍以草原植被为主,暖温性阔叶林向北有所发展.全新世大暖期( 6000cal a BP),温带针阔叶混交林和寒温带针叶林向北方扩张,落叶松向南略有推进,云冷杉林向北扩展,在小兴安岭东部和三江平原出现高值.落叶阔叶林分布中心向南迁移至长白山南部和辽东半岛.松嫩平原草原区岛状林地增加,辽河平原地区草甸草原植被扩张.增温导致东北地区季风降水增加,有利于暖温型森林植被发育.东北地区全新世暖期是植被发育最好时期,增温导致的夏季风降水增强,可能是植被和生态环境良好的主要原因.     

末次冰盛期中国西部冰川物质平衡线高度的模拟研究

文章使用9个气候模式的数值试验数据,研究了末次冰盛期中国西部冰川物质平衡线高度(ELA),以期加深理解冰期青藏高原地表环境以及ELA变化成因.相对于工业化革命前期这一参考时段,末次冰盛期青藏高原夏季普遍降温4-8℃,年降水量平均减少25%.在降温和降水减少的共同作用下,中国西部ELA降低,不同区域之间降幅存在差异.在青藏高原地区,其南缘和西北部下降1100m,中部腹地下降650-800m,东部下降550-800m且由西南向东北逐渐变小.中国境内天山上的ELA下降不超过650m,祁连山和阿尔泰山上的下降值在500~600m.另外,水平分辨率高的气候模式能模拟出青藏髙原中部ELA下降不超过500m的低值,这与古冰川遗迹记录一致;末次冰盛期青藏高原冰川物质积累区主要发生在边缘山地,其面积扩张至现代的2-5倍,但仍未覆盖到高原中部.     

Geothermal control on flow patterns in the Last Glacial Maximum ice sheet of Iceland

Because it is located both on the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge and on a mantle plume, Iceland is a region of intense tectonics and volcanism. During the last glaciation, the island was covered by an ice sheet approximately 1000 m thick. A reconstruction of the ice flow lines, based on glacial directional features, shows that the ice sheet was partly drained through fast‐flowing streams. Fast flow of the ice streams has been recorded in megascale lineations and flutes visible on the currently deglaciated bedrock, and is confirmed by simple mass balance considerations. Locations of the major drainage routes correlate with locations of geothermal anomalies, suggesting that ice stream activity was favoured by lubrication of the bed by meltwater produced in regions of high geothermal heat flux. Similar control of ice flow by geothermal activity is expected in ice sheets currently covering tectonically and volcanically active area such as the West Antarctic ice sheet. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the magnitude of temperature decrease in the equatorial regions during the Last Glacial Maximum

By virtue of a novel experimental method, Phillips’ blockage theory was verified, while some of the experimental phenomena could not be well explained by Phillips’ theory. Deriving from the dynamic equations, the results obtained expound the experimental phenomena satisfactorily. The relevant wnclusions have significant and great pushing effects on ocean remote sensing techniques and potential value to ocean remote sensing techniques. Project supported by the Defense Science and Technology Agency (10.6.5.5).     

Reconstruction of paleocoastlines for the northwestern South China Sea since the Last Glacial Maximum

The range of relative sea level rise in the northwestern South China Sea since the Last Glacial Maximum was over 100 m. As a result, lowland regions including the Northeast Vietnam coast, Beibu Gulf, and South China coast experienced an evolution from land to sea. Based on the principle of reconstructing paleogeography and using recent digital elevation model, relative sea level curves, and sediment accumulation data, this paper presents a series of paleogeographic scenarios back to 20 cal. ka BP for the northwestern South China Sea. The scenarios demonstrate the entire process of coastline changes for the area of interest. During the late glacial period from 20 to 15 cal. ka BP, coastline slowly retreated, causing a land loss of only 1×10⁴ km², and thus the land-sea distribution remained nearly unchanged. Later in 15–10 cal. ka BP coastline rapidly retreated and area of land loss was up to 24×10⁴km², causing lowlands around Northeast Vietnam and South China soon to be underwater. Coastline retreat continued quite rapidly during the early Holocene. From 10 to 6 cal. ka BP land area had decreased by 9×10⁴km², and during that process the Qiongzhou Strait completely opened up. Since the mid Holocene, main controls on coastline change are from vertical crustal movements and sedimentation. Transgression was surpassed by regression, resulting in a land accretion of about 10×10⁴km². Supported by Key Laboratory of Marginal Sea Geology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. MSGL0711), the Guangdong Natural Science Foundation (Grant No. 04001309) and Open Fund of the Key Laboratory of Marine Geology and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. MGE2007KG04)     

南海西北部末次盛冰期以来的古海岸线重建

末次盛冰期以来,南海西北部的相对海平面从-100多米变化到现今海平面高度,越南东北沿海、北部湾及华南沿海等水深较浅的海域经历了从陆地到海洋的演变过程．基于古海岸线重建模型,利用现今的数字高程模型、相对海平面变化曲线和沉积厚度数据,对南海西北部末次盛冰期以来的古海岸线进行了重建．根据古海岸线演变序列获得以下认识：20～15cal．ka BP南海西北部的海岸线缓慢后退,陆地面积只减少了1×10^4km^2,海陆格局基本维持不变;15～10cal．ka BP海岸线快速后退,减少的陆地面积达24×10^4 km^2,使越南东北沿海、北部湾及华南沿海迅速从陆地变为海洋,现今海陆格局基本形成;10～6cal．ka BP海岸线继续以后退为主,使陆地面积减少了9×10^4km^2,期间琼州海峡自西向东完全打开;6-0cal．ka BP海平面波动幅度较小,海岸线变化受构造和沉积作用明显,趋势以海退为主,陆地面积增加了约1×10^4km^2．     

Glacier response to the change in atmospheric circulation in the eastern Mediterranean during the Last Glacial Maximum

In this study, we document glacial deposits and reconstruct the glacial history in the Karagöl valley system in the eastern Uludağ in northwestern Turkey based on 42 cosmogenic ¹⁰Be exposure ages from boulders and bedrock. Our results suggest the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) advance prior to 20.4 ± 1.2 ka and at least three re-advances until 18.6 ± 1.2 ka during the global LGM within Marine Isotope Stage-2. In addition, two older advances of unknown age are geomorphologically well constrained, but not dated due to the absence of suitable boulders. Glaciers advanced again two times during the Lateglacial. The older is exposure dated to not later than 15.9 ± 1.1 ka and the younger is attributed to the Younger Dryas (YD) based on field evidence. The timing of the glaciations in the Karagöl valley correlates well with documented archives in the Anatolian and Mediterranean mountains and the Alps. These glacier fluctuations may be explained by the change in the atmospheric circulation pattern during the different phases of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) winter indices.     

Holocene vegetation succession and responses to climate change in the northern sector of Northeast China

Sediment pollen samples from the Huola Basin in the northern sector of northeast China, and surface pollen samples from its environs, were analyzed to reconstruct accurately the historical response of vegetation to climate change since 9100 cal yr BP. Pollen analysis of the Huola Section indicates that vegetation experienced a transformation from early-mid Holocene warm-cold mixed vegetation to late Holocene cold-temperate vegetation. From 9100 to 6000 cal yr BP, the study area was warmer and moister than at present, developing Corylus, Carpinus, Pinus, Picea, Betula and Larix-dominated forests. Two cooling events at 6000–5000 and 3500–2500 cal yr BP led to a decrease in Corylus, Carpinus and other warmth-loving vegetation, whereas cold temperate forests composed of Larix and Betula expanded. After 2500 cal yr BP, Larix and Betula dominated cold-temperate vegetated landscapes. The Holocene warm period in NE China(9100–6000 cal yr BP) suggests that such warming could have resulted in a strengthening of the influence from East Asian Summer Monsoon on northernmost NE China and would have benefited the development of warm-temperate forest vegetation and an improved plant load, which also provides the similarity model for the possible global warming in the future.     

The East Asian Monsoon since the Last Glacial Maximum: Evidence from geological records in northern China

The impact of global warming on the climate of northern China has been investigated intensively, and the behavior of the East Asian monsoon during previous intervals of climatic warming may provide insight into future changes. In this study, we use paleovegetation records from loess and lake sediments in the marginal zone of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) to reconstruct the EASM during the interval of warming from the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM) to the Holocene. The results show that during the LGM, desert steppe or dry steppe dominated much of northern China; in addition, the southeastern margin of the deserts east of the Helan Mountains had a distribution similar to that of the present-day, or was located slightly further south, due to the cold and dry climate caused by a strengthened East Asian winter monsoon(EAWM) and weakened EASM. During the last deglaciation, with the strengthening of the EASM and concomitant weakening of the EAWM, northern China gradually became humid. However, this trend was interrupted by abrupt cooling during the Heinrich 1(H1) and Younger Dryas(YD) events. The EASM intensified substantially during the Holocene, and the monsoon rain belt migrated at least 300 km northwestwards, which led to the substantial shrinking of the desert area in the central and eastern part of northern China, and to the large expansion of plants favored by warm and humid conditions. Paleoclimatic records from the marginal zone of the EASM all show that the EASM reached its peak in the mid-Holocene, and past global climatic warming significantly strengthened the EASM, thereby greatly improving the ecological environment in northern China. Thus, northern China is expected to become wetter as global warming continues. Finally, high resolution Holocene vegetation records are sparse compared with the numerous records on the orbital timescale, and there is a need for more studies of Holocene climatic variability on the centennial-to-decadal scale.     

Abrupt vegetation shifts caused by gradual climate changes in central Asia during the Holocene

Understanding the response of ecosystems to past climate is critical for evaluating the impacts of future climate changes. A large-scale abrupt shift of vegetation in response to the Holocene gradual climate changes has been well documented for the Sahara-Sahel ecosystem. Whether such a non-linear response is of universal significance remains to be further addressed. Here, we examine the vegetation-climate relationships in central Asia based on a compilation of 38 high-quality pollen records. The results show that the Holocene vegetation experienced two major abrupt shifts, one in the early Holocene (Shift I, establishing shift) and another in the late Holocene (Shift II, collapsing shift), while the mid-Holocene vegetation remained rather stable. The timings of these shifts in different regions are asynchronous, which are not readily linkable with any known abrupt climate shifts, but are highly correlated with the local rainfalls. These new findings suggest that the observed vegetation shifts are attributable to the threshold effects of the orbital-induced gradual climate changes. During the early Holocene, the orbital-induced precipitation increase would have first reached the threshold for vegetation “establishment” for moister areas, but significantly later for drier areas. In contrast, the orbital-induced precipitation decrease during the late Holocene would have first reached the threshold, and led to the vegetation “collapse” for drier areas, but delayed for moister areas. The well-known 4.2 kyr BP drought event and human intervention would have also helped the vegetation collapses at some sites. These interpretations are strongly supported by our surface pollen-climate analyses and ecosystem simulations. These results also imply that future climate changes may cause abrupt changes in the dry ecosystem once the threshold is reached.     

末次冰盛期以来东亚季风变化历史——中国北方的地质记录

全球变暖对中国北方气候的影响已经引发了学术界的广泛关注,地质增温期东亚季风变迁历史可为理解未来气候变化提供重要参考.文章主要基于中国北方夏季风边缘带的湖泊、黄土等记录的古植被信息,探讨了末次冰盛期至全新世全球增温过程中东亚季风的变化历史.地质记录显示,末次冰盛期东亚冬季风增强,夏季风减弱,中国北方气候干冷,大部分地区呈现荒漠草原或干草原景观,贺兰山以东沙地的东南边界和现代沙地边界接近或略向东南方向小幅扩张.在由冷转暖的末次冰消期,东亚冬季风逐渐减弱,夏季风逐渐增强,但在快速变冷的Heinrich 1(H1)和Younger Dryas(YD)事件期间,中国北方气候变干.全新世冬季风减弱,夏季风显著增强,季风雨带向西北推进至少300km,中国中东部干旱区范围大幅度缩小,北方喜暖喜湿植物显著增加.从夏季风边缘带的记录看,中全新世夏季风最为强盛.显然,古增温有利于东亚夏季风的增强,从而极大改善中国北方的生态环境.如果全球变暖持续下去,中国北方将变得湿润.与轨道尺度记录相比,高分辨率的古植被记录较为缺乏,全新世气候突变事件以及百年-十年尺度气候旋回尚需深入研究,应作为今后研究的重点.     

Signals of short‐term climatic periodicities detected in the groundwater of North China Plain

Growing demand on groundwater resources and the semi‐arid climate in the North China Plain (NCP) highlight the need for improved understanding of connections between regional climate change and groundwater recharge. Hydrologic time series of precipitation and groundwater levels were analyzed in three representative geographical zones throughout the NCP for the period of 1960–2008 using trend analysis and spectral analysis methods. A significant change point around 1975 is followed by a long‐term decline trend in precipitation time series, which coincides with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation positive phase. However, the magnitudes of groundwater level variability due to heavy pumping overwhelm the low‐frequency signal of groundwater levels. Nonlinear trends that related to long‐term climatic variability and anthropogenic activities are removed by using the Singular Spectrum Analysis method. Spectral analyses of the detrended residuals demonstrate significant short‐term oscillations at the frequencies of 2–7 years, which have strong correlations with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation modes. This study contributes to improved understanding of dynamic relationship between groundwater and climate variability modes in the NCP and demonstrates the importance of reliable detrending methods for groundwater levels that are affected greatly by pumping. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reconstructing basal ice flow patterns of the Last Glacial Maximum Rhine glacier (northern Alpine foreland) based on streamlined subglacial landforms

Based on high-resolution (sub)glacial geomorphological mapping, we present a first digital inventory of streamlined bedforms within the footprint of a Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) Alpine piedmont glacier. A total of 2460 drumlins were mapped across the Rhine glacier foreland. Glacial lineations and one field of subglacial ribs (ribbed/Rogen moraines) — the first record of this type of subglacial landform on the Alpine foreland—were identified. Two flowsets, associated with (i) the Rhine glacier's LGM maximum advance (Schaffhausen stadial) and (ii) a late LGM readvance (Stein am Rhein stadial), are differentiated. The vast majority of streamlined bedforms occur in fields aligned in a 16- to 30-km-wide swath upstream of the Stein am Rhein frontal moraines. Orientation and elongation of drumlins and glacial lineations set the basis for the reconstruction of paleo-ice flow. Basal flow paths of the LGM maximum advance are visually interpreted and restricted to the zone proximal to the former ice front. The flow field reconstructed for the late LGM glacier readvance (Stein am Rhein stadial) extends tens of kilometres upstream and is modelled implementing a recently published kriging routine. The derived basal flow patterns paired with information on ice surface levels from lateral and frontal moraines and combined with relative ice velocity differences inferred from spatial changes in bedform elongation reveal detailed insights on ice flow geometries, particularly during the glacier readvance. Reconstructed flowlines highlight basal flow under shallow ice that is strongly controlled by local topography evidenced by diverging around basal bumps and converging in (narrow) valley sections and troughs, where basal flow velocities, steered by topography, are high. Gained paleo-ice basal flow patterns offer new insights on landscape evolution of the northern Alpine foreland and provide evidence-based flow data to validate future physical modelling results.     

The relative roles of climate variations and human activities in vegetation change in North China

Using SPOT-VEGETATION Normal Difference Vegetation Index (SPOT/NDVI) data from 1998 to 2011 and climate data obtained from 223 weather stations in or near North China, vegetation variation characteristics within North China were analyzed. Vegetation variation characteristics under the influence of climate variations and human activities were distinguished through a residual analysis. Based on the results of that analysis, the relative roles of climate variations and human activities in vegetation variation were calculated. The results showed that NDVI observed by remote sensing (SPOT/NDVI) increased from 1998 to 2011. The relative roles of climate variations and human activities in vegetation increase were 30.82% and 69.18%, respectively, indicating that human activities played a major role. And observed NDVI showed an increasing trend for different land cover types overall. While NDVI increase in shrub was mainly caused by climate variations, NDVI increases in forest, grassland, farmland, deserts and urban were all primarily caused by human activities. For areas with increasing vegetation, as identified by remote sensing observations in North China, the relative roles of climate variations and human activities in vegetation change were calculated at 14.85% and 85.15% respectively, again indicating that human activities played an important role in vegetation increase. For areas of decreasing vegetation, as identified by remote sensing observations in North China, the relative roles of climate variations and human activities in vegetation change were calculated at 87.72% and 12.28% respectively, indicating that climate variations had large negative effects on vegetation condition. In addition, the relative roles of climate variations and human activities on vegetation variation have obvious spatial differences in North China. Human activities played a positive role in vegetation growth in North China. However, we cannot ignore the function of human destruction on vegetation variation in some areas.     

River runoff decrease in North-Eurasian plains during the Holocene optimum

Three stages were identified in the development of meandering rivers and the formation of floodplains with natural levees in Northern Eurasia: the development of rivers with size larger than that of the modern ones; the development of rivers smaller than the modern ones; and the development of rivers of the present-day morphodynamic type. Small oxbows of the second stage are widespread in the floodplains of lowland rivers in Northern Eurasia. The largest amount of floodplain segments with such oxbows can be seen in the forest zone, mostly in the coniferous forests of northeastern European Russia. The available radiocarbon datings show that river channel were significantly decreasing in size and the steepness of meanders was increasing during the Atlantic period of the Holocene. Data on changes in the size of river channels were used to evaluate the ratios between paleo- and modern discharges and to construct a map of difference between runoff depths in the Holocene optimum and in the present and assess changes in water runoff volume. The discharges in the basins of the Vyatka and middle Irtysh accounted for as little as 40–50% of their current values. North, east, and west from those basins, the ratio of ancient and present-day discharges increases. During the Holocene optimum, water runoff from the northern megaslope of the East European Plain was ∼180 km³/year, which is 30% less than the present runoff from the same drainage area. The annual runoff in Volga basin was ∼134 km³, which is almost half as large as the present value. The runoff in Don and Dnieper basins during the Holocene optimum was 40% less, and that in the Ob and Irtysh basin was 30% less than the present one. If we accept the hypothesis that the Holocene optimum was a climate analogue of global anthropogenic warming of the mid-XXI century, the obtained estimates of the state of water resources in Northern Eurasia acquire great prognostic importance.