中国台湾南部及其周边岛屿现今地壳形变的位错模型

通过建立非震形变的位错模型,用混合全局反演方法,拟合了中国台湾南部1990-1995年间的GPS观测资料.根据地质构造和地震观测,构筑了包括6个刚性块体和19个断层的简单模型.反演结果表明,菲律宾海板块以(69±2)mm/a,方向为317°±2°的速度与欧亚板块会聚,其中约一半的会聚率在台东纵谷消耗掉,另外部分则平均分配在其西边的块体交界处.菲律宾海板块和中央山脉地质区均向西北方向挤压,过了中央山脉后,块体运动呈扇形分布,与应力方向一致.西部麓山地质区与滨海平原地质区交界处的断层均以逆冲分量为主,由南向北倾角逐渐变小,断层宽度一般为10km左右,均表现为强锁定,历史上的大地震多发生在这个地区.     

中国台湾南部及其周边岛屿现今地壳形变的位错模型

通过建立非震形变的位错模型,用混合全局反演方法,拟合了中国台湾南部1990-1995年间的GPS观测资料.根据地质构造和地震观测,构筑了包括6个刚性块体和19个断层的简单模型.反演结果表明,菲律宾海板块以(69±2)mm/a,方向为317°±2°的速度与欧亚板块会聚,其中约一半的会聚率在台东纵谷消耗掉,另外部分则平均分配在其西边的块体交界处.菲律宾海板块和中央山脉地质区均向西北方向挤压,过了中央山脉后,块体运动呈扇形分布,与应力方向一致.西部麓山地质区与滨海平原地质区交界处的断层均以逆冲分量为主,由南向北倾角逐渐变小,断层宽度一般为10km左右,均表现为强锁定,历史上的大地震多发生在这个地区.     

川滇地区地壳水平运动的弹性块体边界负位错模型与强震地点预测

利用川滇地区1991～1999年和1999～2001年GPS水平运动速度场成果,通过研究建立的块体弹性变形及其边界负位错部分锁定的复合作用模型反演,获取地壳水平运动反映的块体变形差异、边界断裂的高应变能积累部位和锁定能量强度,以及区域构造应变场的时空演化图像。在充分考虑区域构造和块体变形的前提下,研究与该区6级以上强震孕育及地点判定有关的背景性前兆的共性特征。     

青藏块体东北缘弹性块体边界负位错反演与强震地点预测

利用青藏块体东北缘1993——1999年、1999——2001年和2001——2003年3个时段的GPS水平运动速度场成果,通过研究建立的弹性块体边界负位错模型反演,给出该区构造块体及其边界断裂运动与变形差异、构造应变场时空分布、高应变能积累部位以及强度的定性分析和定量描述. 在充分考虑区域构造及块体应变的前提下,研究与该区6级左右及6级以上地震地点预测相关的背景性前兆的共性特征.      

1999～2001年青藏块体东北缘地壳水平运动的非震反位错模型及变形分析

通过对GPS观测资料的数值模拟，获取1999～2001年青藏块体东北缘地区地壳水平运动的非震反位错模型,结合本区视应变场空间分布，研究活动块体及其边界断裂运动、变形特征及应力应变积累部位和强度．结果表明:① 9个活动块体呈现东向由偏北至偏南的整体性顺时针运动. 以祁连山——海原断裂为界，两侧块体间的左旋相对运动明显，由西向东呈现走滑兼NE-NEE向挤压；② 有20条断层段（多数呈压性）不同程度地阻碍块体间的相对运动，其中祁连山断裂中东段（包括与日月山——拉脊山断裂交汇区）及与海原、庄浪河断裂交汇区更有利于应变积累，日月山——拉脊山断裂与柴达木块体北边界交汇区也可能存在一定程度的应变积累；③ 所得活动块体运动速率及边界断裂对块体相对运动的锁定量较1993～1999年相应结果有所减弱．      

用速率曲拟合法进行地壳水平形变模型的研究

速率面拟合法已应用于地壳垂直形变模型分析，本文利用这一曲面拟合理论研究了地壳水平形变模型，详细推导了相应的公式，并进行了模拟试算。     

CAR模型在分析处理地壳形变资料中的应用

通过对涞源、大灰厂、牛口峪、赤城、太原等台的地形变资料进行系统辨识和研究,认为带控制项的自回归模型(简称CAR(n)模型)能够较为客观地、合理地反映迭加了温度、降雨等影响的地壳形变观测系统。将所得模型用于资料预估,排除干扰,识别地震异常,效果较为理想。     

Analysis of GAMIT/GLOBK in high-precision GNSS data processing for crustal deformation

The advances in satellite navigation and positioning technology and the worldwide establishment of continuous-tracking stations have greatly promoted the development and application of the high-precision Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). GAMIT/GLOBK, as a popular high-precision GNSS data-processing software, has been widely used in monitoring crustal deformation, tsunami, iceberg, etc. Based on the basic observations and various geophysical models processed by GAMIT/GLOBK, we analyze the influence of the correction of applied geophysical models, and describe the techniques of parameter estimation and accuracy assessment. In addition, taking the present crustal movement in the Chinese mainland and the M_W7.8 earthquake in Nepal as examples, we discuss the applications of GAMIT/GLOBK in crustal deformation monitoring and its future prospect.     

曲线坐标系下的块体运动与应变模型研究

本文建立了顾及地球扁率和局部切标架随点变化特性的椭球坐标系下的刚体运动模型和块体运动与应变模型,以及球坐标系下顾及局部切标架随点变化特性的严密的块体运动与应变模型,分析了球坐标系下块体运动与应变模型及椭球坐标系下的块体运动与应变模型间的差异;通过计算具体讨论了地球扁率和曲线坐标系的局部切标架随点变化特性对欧拉矢量与应变张量的影响.结果表明：地球扁率对刚体欧拉矢量和应变参数的影响甚小,具体计算时可以不予考虑,但曲线坐标系的局部切标架随点变化特性对两者的影响较大,在建模过程中需要顾及,常用的Savage模型需要修正.     

Aseismic negative dislocation model and deformation analysis of crustal horizontal movement during 1999——2001 in the northeast margin of Qinghai-Xizang block

Through numerical simulation for GPS data, aseism/c negative dislocation model for crustal horizontal movement during 1999-2001 in the northeast margin of Qinghai-Xizang block is presented, combined with the spatial distri-bution of apparent strain field in this area, the characteristics of motion and deformation of active blocks and their boundary faults, together with the place and intensity of strain accumulation are analyzed. It is shown that: a) 9 active blocks appeared totally clockwise motion from eastward by north to eastward by south. Obvious sinistral strike-slip and NE-NEE relative compressive motion between the blocks separated by Qilianshan-Haiyuan fault zone was discovered; b) 20 fault segments (most of them showed compression) locked the relative motion between blocks to varying degrees, among the total, the mid-east segment of Qilianshan fault (containing the place where it meets Riyueshan-Lajishan fault) and the place where it meets Haiyuan fault and Zhuanglanghe fault, more favored accumulation of strain. Moreover, the region where Riyueshan-Lajishan fault meets north boundary of Qaidam block may have strain accumulation to some degree, c) Obtained magnitude of block velocities and locking of their boundaries were less than relevant results for observation in the period of 1993-1999.     

Aseismic negative dislocation model and deformation analysis of crustal horizontal movement during 1999~2001 in the northeast margin of Qinghai-Xizang block

Introduction So small is the hypocenter area of strong earthquake, but its formation is controlled by time-space evolution of present-day crustal movement in wider-range area, and related to motion and deformation of active blocks and their boundary faults. Aseismic negative dislocation model presented by Matsuura, et al (1986) is that, the relative motion between blocks driven by present-day crustal movement may be partly locked at the block …     

地震前兆形变场研究

假设在均匀弹性介质半空间中，存在一单一力源F^→，通过求解弹性静力学方程，得到地球表面位移解3个分量（u、v、w)的解析表达式。讨论了理论垂直形变场的基本特征。力的大小是决定形变幅度的基本因素，力越大，形变幅度亦越大，反之，则越小。力源深度h越大，形变幅度越小，影响范围越大，反之，形变幅度大，影响范围小。力源倾角为正时（向下），形变中心区下降，倾角为负（向上）时，形变中心区隆起。力的方位角是决定形变场图像形态的重要因素。利用大同地区（1984－1987年）和张北地区（1984－1991年）水准测量资料反演这二个地区震前力学参数，结果表明，力源中心与实际震中位置相差小于40km，力的方位角近于水平，理论形变图与实测形变图基本相似。     

Kinematic model of crustal deformation of Fenwei basin,China based on GPS observations

Using high precision GPS data for the period of 1999–2007 from the China Crustal Movement Observation Network, we have constructed a plate kinematic model of crustal deformation of Fenwei basin, China. We have examined different kinematic models that can fit the horizontal crustal deformation of the Fenwei basin using three steps of testing. The first step is to carry out unbiasedness and efficiency tests of various models. The second step is to conduct significance tests of strain parameters of the models. The third step is to examine whether strain parameters can fully represent the deformation characteristics of the 11 tectonic blocks over the Fenwei basin. Our results show that the degree of rigidity at the Ordos, Hetao, Yinshan and South China blocks is significant at the 95% confidence level, indicating the crustal deformation of these blocks can be represented by a rigid block model without the need to consider differential deformation within blocks. We have demonstrated that homogeneous strain condition is suitable for the Yinchuan basin but not for other 6 blocks. Therefore, inhomogeneous strains within blocks should be considered when establishing the crustal deformation model for these blocks. We have also tested that not all of the quadratic terms of strain parameters are needed for the Yuncheng-Linfen block. Therefore, four kinds of elastic kinematic models that can best represent the detailed deformation characteristics of the 11 blocks of Fenwei basin are finally obtained. Based on the established model, we have shown that the current tectonic strain feature of the Fenwei basin is mainly characterized by tensile strain in the NW–SE direction, and the boundaries betweem the Ganqing and Ordos blocks and the Shanxi graben possess the maximum shear strain. A comparison between our results and past geological and geophysical investigations further confirms that the model established in this paper is reasonable.     

省级地壳形变前兆标志及预报体系应用研究

对形变监测能力相对薄弱的省份建设省级形变前兆标志及预报体系进行了应用研究。内容包括中短期地震形变前兆异常的规范化识别及提取,省级体系的构架设计及建设要点等。以广东地区为例,从震例出发确认了γ因子,海平面等１０个省级形态前兆标志,并在预报实践中付诸应用。最后,就形变标志与地震三要素的关系进行了讨论。．     

川滇菱形块体近廿年中强地震形变前兆异常分布特征

通过对川滇菱形块体边界带上的29个跨断层形变测量场地的观测资料进行处理，分析，根据确定的异常判据和指标，提取异常变化值，并对异常的时空分布进行综合分析，探讨地震发生前各个测量场地测量数据中所包含的前兆异常特征，同时对各断裂的群体形变特征进行分析。