Stochastic finite fault modelling of M w 4.8 earthquake in Kachchh, Gujarat, India

The modified stochastic finite fault modelling technique based on dynamic corner frequency has been used to simulate the strong ground motions of M _w 4.8 earthquake in the Kachchh region of Gujarat, India. The accelerograms have been simulated for 14 strong motion accelerographs sites (11 sites in Kachchh and three sites in Saurashtra) where the earthquake has been recorded. The region-specific source, attenuation and generic site parameters, which are derived from recordings of small to moderate earthquakes, have been used for the simulations. The main characteristics of the simulated accelerograms, comprised of peak ground acceleration (pga), duration, Fourier and response spectra, predominant period, are in general in good agreement with those of observed ones at most of the sites. The rate of decay of simulated pga values with distance is found to be similar with that of observed values. The successful modelling of the empirical accelerograms indicates that the method can be used to prepare wide range of scenarios based on simulation which provide the information useful for evaluating and mitigating the seismic hazard in the region.     

利用近场加速度记录确定近震震源参数的研究

本文对利用强震近场加速度记录确定时,空、强三个完整的震源参数。文中给出一种利用计算机自动识别地震记录的Ｐ波初动到时和Ｓ波震相到的算法。根据新近发表的Ｗｏｏｄ－Ａｎｄｅｒｓｏｎ地震仪器的最新参数,修牍正唐山地区量规函数。利用唐 山数字震观测台阵得到的近场加速度数据,计算了１０次地震的震源位置和震级,并对定位误差进行了综合分析,将强震台网测定的震源参数与地震台     

Simulation of accelerograms from simplified deterministic approach for the 23rd October 2004 Niigata-ken Chuetsu,Japan earthquake

A simple hybrid approach for the simulation of strong ground motion is presented in this paper. This approach is based on the deterministic modelling of rupture plane initially started by Midorikawa, Tectonophysics 218:287–295, (1993) and further modified by Joshi, Pure Appl Geophys (PAGEOPH) 8:161, (2004). In this technique, the finite rupture plane of the target event is divided into several subfaults, which satisfy scaling relationship. In this paper, simulation of strong ground motion due to a rupture buried in a earth medium consisting of several layers of different velocities and thicknesses is made by considering (1) transmission of energy at each layer; (2) frequency filtering properties of medium and earthquake source; (3) correction factor for slip of large and small magnitude earthquakes and (4) site amplification ratio at various stations. To test the efficacy of the developed technique, strong motion records were simulated at different stations that have recorded the 2004 Niigata-ken Chuetsu, Japan earthquake (M _s 7.0). Comparison is made between the simulated and observed velocity and acceleration records and their response spectra. Distribution of peak ground acceleration, velocity and displacement surrounding the rupture plane is prepared from simulated and observed records and are compared with each other. The comparison of synthetic with the observed records over wide range of frequencies shows that the present technique is effective to predict various strong motion parameters from simple deterministic model which is based on simple regression relations and modelling parameters.     

Empirical green's function corrected for source effect

One of the severe problems in the semi-empirical method for the prediction of strong ground motions is that there is no objective criterion for choosing empirical Green's functions. It is undesirable that synthesized strong ground motions are affected by the source process of an earthquake whose record is adopted as an empirical Green's function. Through the analysis of strong motion accelerograms of two aftershocks of the 1983 Japan Sea earthquakes, it is found that characteristics of the accelerograms are dependent on the moment rate function derived from teleseismic observations. A procedure is presented for removing the effect of the source process from observed strong motion accelerograms. The thus obtained empirical Green's function expresses approximately the impulse response of the medium between the earthquake source and the observation site.     

Development of seismic fragility surfaces for reinforced concrete buildings by means of nonlinear time‐history analysis

Fragility curves are generally developed using a single parameter to relate the level of shaking to the expected structural damage. The main goal of this work is to use several parameters to characterize the earthquake ground motion. The fragility curves will, therefore, become surfaces when the ground motion is represented by two parameters. To this end, the roles of various strong‐motion parameters on the induced damage in the structure are compared through nonlinear time‐history numerical calculations. A robust structural model that can be used to perform numerous nonlinear dynamic calculations, with an acceptable cost, is adopted. The developed model is based on the use of structural elements with concentrated nonlinear damage mechanics and plasticity‐type behavior. The relations between numerous ground‐motion parameters, characterizing different aspects of the shaking, and the computed damage are analyzed and discussed. Natural and synthetic accelerograms were chosen/computed based on a consideration of the magnitude‐distance ranges of design earthquakes. A complete methodology for building fragility surfaces based on the damage calculation through nonlinear numerical analysis of multi‐degree‐of‐freedom systems is proposed. The fragility surfaces are built to represent the probability that a given damage level is reached (or exceeded) for any given level of ground motion characterized by the two chosen parameters. The results show that an increase from one to two ground‐motion parameters leads to a significant reduction in the scatter in the fragility analysis and allows the uncertainties related to the effect of the second ground‐motion parameter to be accounted for within risk assessments. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ground motion modelling in Tehran based on the stochastic method

This paper presents the development of a seismological model for the Tehran area. This modelling approach, which was originally developed in Eastern North America, has been used successfully in other parts of the world including Australia and China for simulating accelerograms and elastic response spectra. Parameters required for input into the model were inferred from seismological and geological information obtained locally. The attenuation properties of the earth crust were derived from the analysis of accelerogram records that had been collated from within the region in a previous study. In modelling local modifications of seismic waves in the upper crust, shear-wave velocity profiles have been constructed in accordance with the power law. Information inferred from micro-zonation studies (for near-surface conditions) and from measurements of teleseismic P-waves reflected from the deeper crusts as reported in the literature has been used to constrain parameters in the power-law relationships. This method of obtaining amplification factors for the upper crust distinguishes this study from earlier studies in the Tehran area (in which site amplification factors were inferred from the H/V ratio of the recorded ground motions). The regional specific seismological model so constructed from the study enabled accelerograms to be simulated and elastic response spectra calculated for a series of magnitude–distance combinations. Importantly, elastic response spectra calculated from the simulated accelerograms have been compared with those calculated from accelerograms recorded from earthquakes with magnitudes ranging between M6.3 and M7.4. The peak ground velocity values calculated from the simulated accelerograms have also been correlated with values inferred from macro-seismic intensity data of 17 historical earthquakes with magnitudes varying between 5.4 and 7.7 and with distances varying between 40 and 230 km. This paper forms part of the long-term strategy of the authors of applying modern techniques for modelling the attenuation behaviour of earthquakes in countries which are lacking in instrumental data of earthquakes.     

The road map for seismic risk analysis in a Mediterranean city

The seismic risk analysis evaluation in the Mediterranean area is one of the main tasks for the preservation of Cultural Heritage and for the sustainable development of Mediterranean cities. The Mediterranean area is characterised by a medium–high level of seismic risk, so that earthquakes are the major cause for the destruction of monuments, residential and industrial buildings. A case history regarding the seismic risk analysis for the city of Catania (Italy) is presented, since the city has been heavy damaged in the past by strong earthquakes such as the 1169 earthquake (XI MCS), the 1542 earthquake (IX MCS), the 1693 earthquake (XI MCS) and the 1818 earthquake (VIII MCS) etc., which caused several thousands of deaths. Fault modelling, attenuation laws, synthetic accelerograms, recorded accelerograms and site effects are considered for the evaluation of the seismic action. Vulnerability of physical environment, related to the presence of cavities and to seismic-induced landslides and liquefaction has been analysed, with special reference to the new modelling of such phenomena and to the application of models to given areas. Soil–structure Interaction has been analysed for some geotechnical works, such as shallow foundation and retaining wall, by means of physical and numerical modelling. The paper deals with the vulnerability of physical environment (landslides, liquefaction, etc.), while the road map continues with the analysis of vulnerability of monuments and buildings, with the aim of the estimation of the seismic resistance required to defend against the seismic action given by the scenario earthquake. For the mitigation of seismic risk, structural improvements of R.C. buildings with different methodology and techniques have been analysed, as well as the guideline for the strengthening of buildings. The work shows that the seismic risk of the city is not a summation of the seismic risk of each building, because the vulnerability of the urban system plays an important role on the seismic risk evaluation of a given city. To this aim the vulnerability of the road infrastructures, lifelines, and urban framework have been also analysed in the project.     

A preliminary empirical model for frequency-dependent attenuation of Fourier amplitude spectra In Serbia from the Vrancea earthquakes

We present the frequency-dependent attenuation model for Fourier amplitude spectra of strong earthquake ground motion in Serbia from intermediate depth earthquakes in the Vrancea source zone in Romania. The development of this type of scaling is the essential first step toward developing the corresponding attenuation and scaling equations for pseudo relative velocity spectra (PSV), which are necessary for seismic macro- and microzoning in the territory of Serbia. Such scaling is necessary because the Vrancea source zone produces large earthquakes with shaking that attenuates differently from the local earthquakes in Serbia. Development of such a scaling model is associated with several difficulties, the principal one being the lack of recorded strong motion accelerograms at epicentral distances exceeding 300 km. To reduce uncertainties with such scaling, we require our preliminary scaling equations to be consistent with independent estimates of seismic moment, stress drop, and radiated wave energy. In the future, when the recorded strong motion data from Vrancea earthquakes increases several-fold of what it is today, it will become possible to perform this analysis again, thus leading to more reliable and permanent scaling estimates.     

Estimation of strong ground motions from hypothetical earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone,Pacific Northwest

Strong ground motions are estimated for the Pacific Northwest assuming that large shallow earthquakes, similar to those experienced in southern Chile, southwestern Japan, and Colombia, may also occur on the Cascadia subduction zone. Fifty-six strong motion recordings for twenty-five subduction earthquakes ofM _s7.0 are used to estimate the response spectra that may result from earthquakesM _w<81/4. Large variations in observed ground motion levels are noted for a given site distance and earthquake magnitude. When compared with motions that have been observed in the western United States, large subduction zone earthquakes produce relatively large ground motions at surprisingly large distances. An earthquake similar to the 22 May 1960 Chilean earthquake (M _w 9.5) is the largest event that is considered to be plausible for the Cascadia subduction zone. This event has a moment which is two orders of magnitude larger than the largest earthquake for which we have strong motion records. The empirical Green's function technique is used to synthesize strong ground motions for such giant earthquakes. Observed teleseismicP-waveforms from giant earthquakes are also modeled using the empirical Green's function technique in order to constrain model parameters. The teleseismic modeling in the period range of 1.0 to 50 sec strongly suggests that fewer Green's functions should be randomly summed than is required to match the long-period moments of giant earthquakes. It appears that a large portion of the moment associated with giant earthquakes occurs at very long periods that are outside the frequency band of interest for strong ground motions. Nevertheless, the occurrence of a giant earthquake in the Pacific Northwest may produce quite strong shaking over a very large region.     

Parametric modeling of earthquake response spectra

A mathematical model for the response spectra is determined using statistical analysis. The form of the model is first established using fifty computer simulated accelerograms. The final form is then used on twenty-five accelerograms from fifteen past United States earthquakes. This model smooths out peaks and valleys which are characteristic of the response spectrum of any single earthquake. Thus it serves as a ‘smooth design spectrum’ and can be used to approximate structural response to a future seismic event.     

Modelling of Strong Ground Motions from 1991 Uttarkashi,India, Earthquake Using a Hybrid Technique

We present a simple and efficient hybrid technique for simulating earthquake strong ground motion. This procedure is the combination of the techniques of envelope function (Midorikawa et al. Tectonophysics 218:287–295, 1993) and composite source model (Zeng et al. Geophys Res Lett 21:725–728, 1994). The first step of the technique is based on the construction of the envelope function of the large earthquake by superposition of envelope functions for smaller earthquakes. The smaller earthquakes (sub-events) of varying sizes are distributed randomly, instead of uniform distribution of same size sub-events, on the fault plane. The accelerogram of large event is then obtained by combining the envelope function with a band-limited white noise. The low-cut frequency of the band-limited white noise is chosen to correspond to the corner frequency for the target earthquake magnitude and the high-cut to the Boore’s f _max or a desired frequency for the simulation. Below the low-cut frequency, the fall-off slope is 2 in accordance with the ω² earthquake source model. The technique requires the parameters such as fault area, orientation of the fault, hypocenter, size of the sub-events, stress drop, rupture velocity, duration, source–site distance and attenuation parameter. The fidelity of the technique has been demonstrated by successful modeling of the 1991 Uttarkashi, Himalaya earthquake (Ms 7). The acceptable locations of the sub-events on the fault plane have been determined using a genetic algorithm. The main characteristics of the simulated accelerograms, comprised of the duration of strong ground shaking, peak ground acceleration and Fourier and response spectra, are, in general, in good agreement with those observed at most of the sites. At some of the sites the simulated accelerograms differ from observed ones by a factor of 2–3. The local site geology and topography may cause such a difference, as these effects have not been considered in the present technique. The advantage of the technique lies in the fact that detailed parameters such as velocity-Q structures and empirical Green’s functions are not required or the records of the actual time history from the past earthquakes are not available. This method may find its application in preparing a wide range of scenarios based on simulation. This provides information that is complementary to the information available in probabilistic hazard maps.     

Generating multiple spectrum compatible accelerograms using stochastic neural networks

A new neural‐network‐based methodology for generating artificial earthquake spectrum compatible accelerograms from response spectra was proposed in 1997, in which, the learning capabilities of neural networks were used to develop the knowledge of the inverse mapping from the response spectra to earthquake accelerograms. Recently, this methodology has been further extended and enhanced. This paper presents a new stochastic neural network that is capable of generating multiple earthquake accelerograms from a single‐response spectrum. A new stochastic feature to the neural network has been combined with a new scheme for data compression using the replicator neural networks developed in the original method. A benefit of this extended methodology is gaining efficiency in compressing the earthquake accelerograms and extracting their characteristics. The proposed method produces a stochastic ensemble of earthquake accelerograms from any response spectra or design spectra. An example is presented that used 100 recorded accelerograms to train the neural network and several design spectra and response spectra to test this improved methodology. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Correlations of peak acceleration,velocity and displacement with earthquake magnitude,distance and site conditions

A brief review of proposed correlations between peak accelerations and earthquake magnitude and distance has been presented. It has been found that most investigators agree favourably on what should be the amplitude of peak accelerations for the distance range between about 20 and 200 km. For distances less than 20 km, there is significant disagreement in the predicted peak amplitudes, reflecting the lack of data there and the uncertainties associated with the extrapolation. Correlations of peak accelerations, peak velocities and peak displacements with earthquake magnitude, epicentral distance and the geologic conditions of the recording sites have been presented for 187 accelerograms recorded during 57 earthquakes. This data set describes strong earthquake ground motion in the Western United States during the period from 1933 to 1971. For large earthquakes, dependence of peak acceleration, velocity and displacement amplitudes on earthquake magnitude seems to be lost. This suggests that the amplitudes of strong ground motion close to a fault are scaled primarily by the maximum dislocation amplitudes and the stress drop, rather than the overall ‘size’ of an earthquake as measured by magnitude. The influence of geologic conditions at the recording station seems to be of minor importance for scaling peak accelerations, but it becomes noticeable for the peaks of velocity and even more apparent for the peaks of displacement.     

Application of arma models to estimate earthquake ground motion and structural response

This paper deals with the use of ARMA models in earthquake engineering. Tools and methods applied to strong ground motion are discussed emphasizing simulation of probabilistic earthquake response spectra. The ARMA models are applied to Icelandic earthquake data and a tentative model for Icelandic earthquakes is presented. This model, which is derived using 54 accelerograms, is based on a low-order, time-invariant ARMA process excited by Gaussian white noise and amplitude modulated using a simple envelope function to account for the non-stationary characteristics. This simple model gives a reasonable fit to the observed ground motion. Further, this model produces accurate earthquake response spectra, which, combined with accompanying attenuation and duration formulae, might be useful in earthquake hazard and risk assessment.     

Analysis of accelerograms recorded in the source zone of the 1995 Neftegorsk earthquake and computation of synthetic accelerograms

The strongest Neftegorsk earthquake, which occurred in 1995 in the northern part of the Sakhalin Island, was studied by the Epicentral Seismological Expedition, Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences. The performed observations yielded the unique accelerograms of strong aftershocks, which were then applied as a basis for detailed analyses. The recorded accelerations were in satisfactory compliance with the current ground motion relations. The design spectra developed on the basis of analyzed records were proposed as an example. The synthetic accelerograms were calculated using the records of the strongest aftershocks for two modal earthquakes by the empirical Green’s function technique. This technique can be recommended for practical application as the most physically substantiated method taking into account all regional features.     

Microzonation of the city of Basel

During the past centuries, the city of Basel has suffered damage caused by earthquakes. One extraordinary event described in historical documents is the strong earthquake which occurred in 1356. The 1356 event, one of the strongest earthquakes in northwest-Europe, was obviously much stronger than the low-magnitude earthquakes observed in the area during this century. Even though the present seismicity in the Basel area is low, strong earthquakes have to be expected due to the city's geographical location close to the northern boundary of the African-European convergence zone, at the southern end of the Rhinegraben. A crucial step towards preparedness for future events and mitigation of earthquake risk involves a microzonation study of the city. The study is carried out in three steps: (1) a detailed mapping of the geology and geotechnical properties of the area, (2) measurement, interpretation and modelling of ambient noise data, and (3) numerical modelling of expected ground motions during earthquakes. A qualitative microzonation of the centre of Basel is presented, and it is discussed by comparing it to the historically reported damage of the 1356 earthquake.     

Site-dependent models of earthquake ground motion

Random vibration analyses of structural systems subjected to seismic loading are dependent upon the characterization of earthquake ground motion as a stochastic process. The response of structural systems to earthquakes is dependent strongly on the local geological conditions, which should be incorporated into seismological models of ground motion. In the study presented herein, three previously developed ground-motion models are adapted to incorporate site-dependent characteristics. Records obtained from two recording stations in California are used as a basis for the ground-motion models. Single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) oscillators are subjected to ensembles of accelerograms generated from these models, and both elastic and inelastic response are considered. Response statistics are compared to those generated by the analysis of structural response to ensembles of recorded motion from the two sites. The important features of the ground motion for effective reproduction of response statistics are identified, and observations are made on the sensitivity of specific response parameters to site-dependent characteristics of the ground motion.     

Ground-motion scenarios on Mt. Etna inferred from empirical relations and synthetic simulations

Ground motion scenarios for Mt. Etna are created using synthetic simulations with the program EXSIM. A large data set of weak motion records is exploited to identify important input parameters which govern the modeling of wave propagation effects, such as Q-values, high frequency cut-off and geometrical spreading. These parameters are used in the simulation of ground motion for earthquakes causing severe damage in the area. Two seismotectonic regimes are distinguished. Volcano-tectonic events, though being of limited magnitude (M_max ca. 5), cause strong ground shaking for their shallow foci. Being rather frequent, these events represent a considerable threat to cities and villages on the flanks of the volcano. A second regime is related to earthquakes with foci in the crust, at depths of 10–30 km, and magnitudes ranging from 6 to 7. In our synthetic scenarios, we chose two examples of volcano-tectonic events, i.e. the October 29, 2002, Bongiardo event (I = VIII) and the May 8, 1914, Linera earthquake (I = IX–X). A further scenario regards the February 20, 1818 event, considered representative for stronger earthquakes with foci in the crust. We were able to reproduce the essential features of the macroseismic field, in particular accounting for the possibility of strong site effects. We learned that stress drop estimated for weak motion events is probably too low to explain the intensity of ground motion during stronger earthquakes. This corresponds to findings reported in the literature claiming an increase of stress drop with earthquake size.     

Estimation of Nonlinear Soil Behavior During the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, Earthquake

The 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake (M_w = 7.6) was one of the strongest earthquakes in recent years recorded by a large number of strong-motion devices. Though only surface records are available, the obtained strong-motion database indicates the variety of ground responses in the near-fault zones. In this study, accelerograms of the Chi-Chi earthquake were simulated at rock and soil sites, and models of soil behavior were constructed at seven soil sites (TCU065, TCU072, TCU138, CHY026, CHY104, CHY074, and CHY015), for which parameters of the soil profiles are known down to depths of at least ~70 m and at 24 other soil sites, for which parameters of the soil profiles are known down to 30–40 m; all the sites were located within ~50 km from the fault. For reconstructing stresses and strains in the soil layers, we used a method similar to that developed for the estimation of soil behavior based on vertical array records. As input for the soil layers, acceleration time histories simulated by stochastic finite-fault modelling with a prescribed slip distribution over the fault plane were taken. In spite of the largeness of the earthquake’s magnitude and the proximity of the studied soil sites to the fault plane, the soil behavior at these sites was relatively simple, i.e., a fairly good agreement between the spectra of the observed and simulated accelerograms and between their waveforms was obtained even in cases where a single stress-strain relation was used to describe the behavior of whole soil thickness down to ~70–80 m during strong motion. Obviously, this is due to homogeneity in the characteristics of soil layers in depth. At all the studied sites, resonant phenomena in soil layers (down to ~40–60 m) and nonlinearity of soil response were the main factors defining soil behavior. At TCU065, TCU110, TCU115, CHY101, CHY036, and CHY039 liquefaction phenomena occurred in the upper soil layers, estimated strains achieved ~0.6–0.8%; at other stations, maximum strains in the soil layers were as high as 0.1–0.4%, according to our estimates. Thus, valuable data on the in situ soil behavior during the Chi-Chi earthquake was obtained. Similarity in the behavior of similar soils during the 1995 Kobe, 2000 Tottori (Japan), and Chi-Chi (Taiwan) earthquakes was found, indicating the possibility of forecasting soil behavior in future earthquakes. In the near-fault zones of the three earthquakes, “hard-type” soil behavior and resonant phenomena in the upper surface layers prevail, both leading to high acceleration amplitudes on the surface.     

Wavelet‐based simulation of spectrum‐compatible aftershock accelerograms

In damage‐based seismic design it is desirable to account for the ability of aftershocks to cause further damage to an already damaged structure due to the main shock. Availability of recorded or simulated aftershock accelerograms is a critical component in the non‐linear time‐history analyses required for this purpose, and simulation of realistic accelerograms is therefore going to be the need of the profession for a long time to come. This paper attempts wavelet‐based simulation of aftershock accelerograms for two scenarios. In the first scenario, recorded main shock and aftershock accelerograms are available along with the pseudo‐spectral acceleration (PSA) spectrum of the anticipated main shock motion, and an accelerogram has been simulated for the anticipated aftershock motion such that it incorporates temporal features of the recorded aftershock accelerogram. In the second scenario, a recorded main shock accelerogram is available along with the PSA spectrum of the anticipated main shock motion and PSA spectrum and strong motion duration of the anticipated aftershock motion. Here, the accelerogram for the anticipated aftershock motion has been simulated assuming that temporal features of the main shock accelerogram are replicated in the aftershock accelerograms at the same site. The proposed algorithms have been illustrated with the help of the main shock and aftershock accelerograms recorded for the 1999 Chi–Chi earthquake. It has been shown that the proposed algorithm for the second scenario leads to useful results even when the main shock and aftershock accelerograms do not share the same temporal features, as long as strong motion duration of the anticipated aftershock motion is properly estimated. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.