Information background of 11th–15th centuries earthquakes located by the current catalogues in Vrancea (Romania)

Earthquake catalogues for Romania supply for 11th–15th century earthquakes located in the region of Vrancea records that consist of a complete set of parameters, including magnitude and depth. Scope of this paper is to verify the reliability and consistency of these parameters with the informative background as explicitly referenced by the catalogues. After retrieving the original sources they mention, the set of data appeared to be related almost exclusively to the Russian plain and too poor to be at the very origin of the parameter assessment. Data for 19th–20th century earthquakes, such as instrumental locations and CMT solutions, added to the understanding of the macroseismic response of the Russian plain to Vrancea earthquakes. On the one hand, the investigation and analysis of historical earthquake records for the fourteen events listed by the catalogues in the 11th–15th centuries has shown that for three earthquakes (1022, 1038, 1258) no primary sources could be traced, and three more earthquakes (1091, 1170 and 1328) are attested only by scarcely reliable records and had to be classified as doubtful, and one (1473) is simply a duplication of the 1471 event. On the other hand, the availability of data on recent earthquakes that may be compared to historical ones in terms of macroseismic effects allowed the authors to agree with the previous catalogue compilers’ solution with regard to both magnitude and depth of the past earthquakes for which do exist reliable primary historical records.     

Two historical North Wales earthquakes — A macroseismic comparison

Two earthquakes of similar magnitude and location, but historically separated by 37 years, are compared using macroseismic data, largely relying on contemporary newspaper reports of felt effects. These are the North Wales earthquakes of 1903 June 19 and 1940 December 12, of magnitude 4.8 and 4.7 M_L. The epicentral intensities are also similar: 6 and 5–6 MSK. There are, however, great differences in the amount of data on these two earthquakes. It is found that some of these differences relate to non- seismological factors such as changes in newspapers and historical context, and others to such factors as event time and interests of contemporary investigators. It is concluded that attention to the limitations of data sources is an important component of macroseismic revaluations of historical earthquakes. Despite differences in reporting it is still possible to assess adequately the maeroseismic parameters of these two earthquakes.     

Near-surface earthquakes in the Baltic shield, notably Sweden

A recent series of Swedish earthquakes at a focal depth not exceeding 2–3 km, the largest with I_O = V + (MSK scale) andM_L = 3.2 shows that relatively strong seismic activity can occur in the uppermost part of the Baltic Shield. During the last 15 years several near-surface earthquakes have occurred in this region, as indicated by recorded Rg-waves and/or macroseismic data. Many events are located along the coast of central Sweden, suggesting a seismic belt of minor, near-surface activity, which should be considered in connection with the radioactive waste storage in the Swedish bedrock. The appearance of Rg, common in seismic records of explosions and rockbursts, is not a sufficient discriminator between artificial events and earthquakes.     

The record of historic earthquakes in lake sediments of Central Switzerland

Deformation structures in lake sediments in Central Switzerland can be attributed to strong historic earthquakes. The type and spatial distribution of the deformation structures reflect the historically documented macroseismic intensities thus providing a useful calibration tool for paleoseismic investigations in prehistoric lake sediments.The Swiss historical earthquake catalogue shows four moderate to strong earthquakes with moment magnitudes of M_w=5.7 to M_w=6.9 and epicentral intensities of I₀=VII to I₀=IX that affected the area of Central Switzerland during the last 1000 years. These are the 1964 Alpnach, 1774 Altdorf, 1601 Unterwalden, and 1356 Basel earthquakes. In order to understand the effect of these earthquakes on lacustrine sediments, four lakes in Central Switzerland (Sarner See, Lungerer See, Baldegger See, and Seelisberg Seeli) were investigated using high-resolution seismic data and sediment cores. The sediments consist of organic- and carbonate-rich clayey to sandy silts that display fine bedding on the centimeter to millimeter scale. The sediments are dated by historic climate and environmental records, ¹³⁷Cs activity, and radiocarbon ages. Deformation structures occur within distinct zones and include large-scale slumps and rockfalls, as well as small-scale features like disturbed and contorted lamination and liquefaction structures. These deformations are attributed to three of the abovementioned earthquakes. The spatial distribution of deformation structures in the different lakes clearly reflects the historical macroseismic dataset: Lake sediments are only affected if they are situated within an area that underwent groundshaking not smaller than intensity VI to VII. We estimate earthquake size by relating the epicentral distance of the farthest liquefaction structure to earthquake magnitude. This relationship is in agreement with earthquake size estimations based on the historical dataset.     

Atlas of macroseismic maps for French earthquakes with their principal characteristics

The SIRENE macroseismic database has been utilized to draw isoseismal maps for the 140 best-documented French earthquakes, characterized by epicentral intensities of at least V (MSK) and located in all parts of the country. A study of focal depths derived from available local intensity data using an intensity versus distance decay law (Sponheuer) shows that the focal depths of most of the events considered do not exceed about 10 km. Their distribution correlates fairly well with regional dynamic geology features. A relationship is then computed between magnitude, intensity and focal distance, based on 73 instrumenta]ly recorded earthquakes (M _L between 3.3 and 6.3) and on 217 mean radius values (from 2 to 380 km) for isoseismals of intensity VIII to III (MSK). This relationship is applied to historical earthquakes contained in the database SIRENE which are characterised by their intensity only. These results are used in the evaluation as well deterministic as probabilistic of the seismic hazard on the national territory.     

Recent activity and seismotectonics of the Eastern Pyrenees

Results from a recent earthquake in the Eastern Pyrenees are presented and the seismotectonics of the region is analyzed from the presently available data. On 26 September 1984 an earthquake (M_L = 4.4) took place in the area of the historical destructive earthquake of 1428. Several portable stations installed in the epicentral area to record aftershocks permitted of defining a precise location at 42°19.2′N, 2°10.2′E and 5 km depth. A maximum felt intensity of V (MSK) is obtained from macroseismic data. The epicentral location lies within a block bounded by E-W-trending structures and the focal solution shows right-lateral shearing with a NW-SE pressure axis.The seismicity in the Eastern Pyrenees shows a complex pattern which can be associated with both E-W fractures and NE-SW fault systems. Focal solutions of another two recent earthquakes of M_L ~ 4, with differences in horizontal pressure axis, are also discussed.     

Seismicity assessment in and around Syria based on instrumental data: application of Gumbel distributions and Gutenberg-Richter relationship

An instrumental earthquake catalog covering the time span between 1903 and 2007 and for the area bounded by 32°N–38°N and 35°E–43°E has been compiled in this research. The catalog has a magnitude of completeness (M _c ) with 3.5. Least squares and statistical probability Gumbel’s techniques with different approaches have been applied on the instrumental events in order to assess the average recurrence time periods for different earthquake magnitudes. The constants a and b of Gutenberg-Richter and the average recurrence times have been computed firstly for the study area and secondly for the central and northern parts of Dead Sea fault system. The different statistical computations using Knopoff and Kagan formalism are generally in agreement and suggest an average recurrence time of 203 years for an earthquake of magnitude 7 for the region. The occurrence of large well-documented historical earthquakes in Lebanon and western Syria, the existence of active fault segments, the absence of large earthquakes during the study period, the increasing number of the low-magnitude earthquakes, and the continued accumulation of the strain since 1900 indicate therefore the probability of an earthquake occurrence of a large magnitude. This should be permanently taken into consideration in seismic hazard assessment on the local and regional scales.     

Constraints on the location and mechanism of the 1511 Western-Slovenia earthquake from active tectonics and modeling of macroseismic data

The 1511 Western Slovenia earthquake (M = 6.9) is the largest event occurred so far in the region of the Alps–Dinarides junction. Though it strongly influences the regional seismic hazard assessment, the epicenter and mechanism are still under debate. The complexity of the active tectonics of the Alps–Dinarides junction is reflected by the presence of both compressional and transpressional deformations. This complexity is witnessed by the recent occurrence of three main earthquake sequences, the 1976 Friuli thrust faulting events, the 1998 Bovec–Krn Mountain and the 2004 Kobarid strike-slip events. The epicenters of the 1998 and 2004 strike-slip earthquakes (M_s = 5.7 and M_s = 4.9, respectively) lie only 50 km far from the 1976 thrust earthquake (M_s = 6.5).We use the available macroseismic data and recent active tectonics studies, to assess a possible epicenter and mechanism for the 1511 earthquake and causative fault. According with previous works reported in the literature, we analyze both a two-and a single-event case, defining several input fault models. We compute synthetic seismograms up to 1 Hz in an extended-source approximation, testing different rupture propagations and applying a uniform seismic moment distribution on the fault segments. We extract the maximum horizontal velocities from the synthetics and we convert them into intensities by means of an empirical relation. A rounded-to-integer misfit between observed and computed intensities is performed, considering both a minimized and a maximized databases, built to avoid the use of half-degree macroseismic intensity data points. Our results are consistent with a 6.9 magnitude single event rupturing 50 km of the Idrija right-lateral strike-slip fault with bilateral rupture propagation.     

The environmental effects of the 1743 Salento earthquake (Apulia,southern Italy): a contribution to seismic hazard assessment of the Salento Peninsula

The aim of this study was to provide a contribution to seismic hazard assessment of the Salento Peninsula (Apulia, southern Italy). It is well known that this area was struck by the February 20, 1743, earthquake (I ₀ = IX and M _w = 7.1), the strongest seismic event of Salento, that caused the most severe damage in the towns of Nardò (Lecce) and Francavilla Fontana (Brindisi), in the Ionian Islands (Greece) and in the western coast of Albania. It was also widely felt in the western coast of Greece, in Malta Islands, in southern Italy and in some localities of central and northern Italy. Moreover, the area of the Salento Peninsula has also been hit by several low-energy and a few high-energy earthquakes over the last centuries; the instrumental recent seismicity is mainly concentrated in the western sector of the peninsula and in the Otranto Channel. The Salento area has also experienced destructive seismicity of neighboring regions in Italy (the Gargano Promontory in northern Apulia, the Southern Apennines chain, the Calabrian Arc) and in the Balkan Peninsula (Greece and Albania). Accordingly, a critical analysis of several documentary and historical sources, as well as of the geologic–geomorphologic ground effects due to the strong 1743 Salento earthquake, has been carried out by the authors in this paper; the final purpose has been to re-evaluate the 1743 MCS macroseismic intensities and to provide a list of newly classified localities according to the ESI-07 scale on the base of recognized Earthquake Environmental Effects. The result is a quite different damage scenario due to this earthquake that could raise the seismic potential currently recognized for the Salento area, and consequently upgrade the seismic hazard classification of the Salento. Indeed it is important to remind that currently, despite the intense earthquake activity recorded not only in the Otranto Channel, but especially in Greece and Albania, this area is classified in the least dangerous category of the Seismic Classification of the Italian territory (IV category).     

Precursory seismicity rate changes prior to the large and major earthquakes along the Sagaing fault zone,Central Myanmar

In this study, the seismicity rate changes that can represent an earthquake precursor were investigated along the Sagaing Fault Zone (SFZ), Central Myanmar, using the Z value technique. After statistical improvement of the existing seismicity data (the instrumental earthquake records) by removal of the foreshocks and aftershocks and man-made seismicity changes and standardization of the reported magnitude scales, 3574 earthquake events with a M _w ≥ 4.2 reported during 1977–2015 were found to directly represent the seismotectonic activities of the SFZ. To find the characteristic parameters specifically suitable for the SFZ, seven known events of M _w ≥ 6.0 earthquakes were recognized and used for retrospective tests. As a result, utilizing the conditions of 25 fixed earthquake events considered (N) and a 2-year time window (T _w), a significantly high Z value was found to precede most of the M _w ≥ 6.0 earthquakes. Therefore, to evaluate the prospective areas of upcoming earthquakes, these conditions (N = 25 and T _w = 2) were applied with the most up-to-date seismicity data of 2010–2015. The results illustrate that the vicinity of Myitkyina and Naypyidaw (Z = 4.2–5.1) cities might be subject to strong or major earthquakes in the future.     

The 1905 Chamonix earthquakes: active tectonics in the Mont Blanc and Aiguilles Rouges massifs

Linking earthquakes of moderate size to known tectonic sources is a challenge for seismic hazard studies in northwestern Europe because of overall low strain rates. Here we present a combined study of macroseismic information, tectonic observations, and seismic waveform modelling to document the largest instrumentally known event in the French northern Alps, the April 29, 1905, Chamonix earthquake. The moment magnitude of this event is estimated at M_w 5.3 ± 0.3 from records in Göttingen (Germany) and Uppsala (Sweden). The event of April 29 was followed by several afterschocks and in particular a second broadly felt earthquake on August 13, 1905. Macroseismic investigations allow us to favour a location of the epicentres 5–10 km N–NE of Chamonix. Tectonic analysis shows that potentially one amongst several faults might have been activated in 1905. Among them the right lateral strike-slip fault responsible for the recent 2005 M_w = 4.4 Vallorcine earthquake and a quasi-normal fault northeast of the Aiguilles Rouges massif are the most likely candidates. Discussion of tectonic, macroseismic, and instrumental data favour the normal fault hypothesis for the 1905 Chamonix earthquake sequence.     

Reassessing the earthquake hazard in Kerala based on the historical and current seismicity

Given the lack of proper constraints in understanding earthquake mechanisms in the cratonic interiors and the general absence of good quality database, here we reassess the seismic hazard in the province of Kerala, a part of the •stable continental interior•, based on an improved historical and instrumental database. The temporal pattern of the current seismicity suggests that >60% of the microtremors in Kerala occurs with a time lag after the peak rainfall, indicating that hydroseismicity may be a plausible model to explain the low-level seismicity in this region. Further, an increment in overall seismicity rate in the region in the recent years is explained as due to increased anthropogenic activities, which includes changes in hydrological pathways as a consequence of rapid landscape changes. Our analyses of the historical database eliminate a few events that are ascribed to this region; this exercise has also led to identification of a few events, not previously noted. The improved historical database essentially suggests that the central midland region is more prone to seismic activity compared to other parts of Kerala. This region appears to have generated larger number of significant earthquakes; the most prominent being the multiple events (doublets) of 1856 and 1953, whose magnitudes are comparable to that of the 2000/2001 (central Kerala) events. Occurrences of these historical events and the recent earthquakes, and the local geology indicative of pervasive faulting as shown by widely distributed pseudotachylite veins suggest that the NNW-SSE trending faults in central midland Kerala may host discrete potentially active sources that may be capable of generating light to moderate size earthquakes. The frequency of earthquakes in central Kerala evident from the historical database requires that the seismic codes stipulated for this region are made mandatory.     

A reappraisal of the seismicity of the Maghreb countries — Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia

This paper reappraises the seismicity of Algeria and adjacent regions. It presents a general view of the geographical structure, the historical development of the seismological station network, some aspects of the effects of past destructive earthquakes, the state of knowledge of the seismicity and the seismic hazard and risk in the region under survey. Magnitude-frequency relationships for different parts of the region studied are presented as well as magnitude-intensity and intensity-attenuation relationships, semi-empirical formula. It also discusses the macroseismic information, the instrumental data and the social and economic implications of earthquakes in the Maghreb region.     

Intensity field of the 19 June 1975 Gargano (Southern Italy) earthquake

Many moderate events reported by Italian earthquake catalogues (either historical or recent) are listed with an epicentral intensity derived from intensitymagnitude relationships or evaluated based on preliminary sources. Contradictions may arise among different catalogues when the effects of a given earthquake are not assessed through a specific macroseismic study as each catalogue generally uses its own criteria for evaluating the intensity. In this paper we present the case of the June 19 1975 earthquake, a M_L = 5.1 (ING seismological bulletin) event that occurred in the Gargano area (southern Italy). The intensity reported by the ING catalogue is VIII MCS (estimated from magnitude), that reported by the NT4.1 catalogue is VI MCS, while the PFG catalogue does not report an intensity. The case of this event is well representative of a period during which macroseismic studies were not undertaken systematically in Italy. In this paper we reassess the macroseismic intensity of this event using procedures implemented and routinely used at ING.     

Site response of the Ganges basin inferred from re-evaluated macroseismic observations from the 1897 Shillong, 1905 Kangra,and 1934 Nepal earthquakes

We analyze previously published geodetic data and intensity values for the M _s = 8.1 Shillong (1897), M _s = 7.8 Kangra (1905), and M _s = 8.2 Nepal/Bihar (1934) earthquakes to investigate the rupture zones of these earthquakes as well as the amplification of ground motions throughout the Punjab, Ganges and Brahmaputra valleys. For each earthquake we subtract the observed MSK intensities from a synthetic intensity derived from an inferred planar rupture model of the earthquake, combined with an attenuation function derived from instrumentally recorded earthquakes. The resulting residuals are contoured to identify regions of anomalous intensity caused primarily by local site effects. Observations indicative of liquefaction are treated separately from other indications of shaking severity lest they inflate inferred residual shaking estimates. Despite this precaution we find that intensites are 1–3 units higher near the major rivers, as well as at the edges of the Ganges basin. We find evidence for a post-critical Moho reflection from the 1897 and 1905 earthquakes that raises intensities 1–2 units at distances of the order of 150 km from the rupture zone, and we find that the 1905 earthquake triggered a substantial subsequent earthquake at Dehra Dun, at a distance of approximately 150 km. Four or more M = 8 earthquakes are apparently overdue in the region based on seismic moment summation in the past 500 years. Results from the current study permit anticipated intensities in these future earthquakes to be refined to incorporate site effects derived from dense macroseismic data.     

Historical seismicity on the southern margin of the Siberian craton: new data

We discuss historical evidence for seismicity on the southern margin of the Siberian craton collected from old local newspapers. The reported earthquakes vary in magnitude from M = 2.5 to 4.5, and their macroseismic locations agree well with the regional tectonic framework. The new data prove seismic activity in the area and can be used in seismic risk assessment.     

Can hydrodynamic modelling of tsunami contribute to seismic risk assessment ?

In recent years a great effort has been made to quantitatively model major historical events in Europe, searching for models that are compatible with both seismic, hydrodynamic and sedimentological evidences. The possibility to do so, with the available modelling techniques, has been checked against instrumental tsunami and seismological data. Most of this effort has been made within the projects GITEC and GITEC TWO.The quantitavive data that can be gathered from historical sources are: extension of the source area, wave heights, first wave polarity and, only rarely, travel times and time intervals between main waves. With this data the accuracy of source studies is a function of both the model uncertainty (can tsunami waves be accurately modelled ? are seismic parameters compatible with tsunami source parameters ?) and the observation errors. These are large when we deal with historical documents hundreds of years old.Here we present the conclusions obtained from the study on the 1755 Lisbon earthquake and tsunami. The available historical data are reliable enough to allow a good source determination and, surprisingly, the results obtained differ from those obtained from previous macroseismic studies.The analysis of the results obtained in the tsunami modelling, checked against the macroseismic data, allow the identification of an important seismo and tsunamigenic area, close to the SW Portuguese coast, that must also be taken into consideration for the evaluation of seismic hazard.     

Re-evaluation of minor events: The examples of the 1895 and 1909 Rome earthquakes

The city of Rome is subjected to moderate seismic risk due to both local and external seismicity. Up to now, the maximum intensity felt has never exceeded VIII MCS. The 1 November 1895 (I _o = VII) and 31 August 1909 (I _o = VI) earthquakes demonstrate that small local events can also cause damage in a large old city. In the present work, we have re-evaluated the intensity values of those two events by means of automatic processing. A comparison between the present results with geological evidence and previous studies is shown, especially for the historical centre of Rome. For the first time, the 1909 earthquake instrumental magnitudeM _L = 3.6 has been calculated from original recordings.     

Seismicity of the Cyprus region

We have used a combination of macroseismic and instrumental techniques to re-evaluate the seismicity of Cyprus and the surrounding region for the period 1890–1900. We identified 56 events which we believe to have a surface-wave magnitude (Ms) of 4.5 or greater. Early events are located by felt effects alone, and macroseismic information is used to improve the location of many later events. We find the broad pattern of seismicity follows that given by standard listings: an area of weak seismicity to the north-west of Cyprus in the Gulf of Antalia includes intermediate-depth events as are found in the Hellenic Arc to the west; a gap of reduced activity separates this activity from that of the main region of Cyprus, where we could find no evidence for sub-crustal foci; there appears to be no present seismological connection along the presumed plate boundary to the north-east to the junction of the East Anatolian fault and the extension of the Dead Sea rift system. We find a much greater level of activity in the first part of this century than is given in the standard listings, such as that of the ISC. Up to 1963 we identified 47 events of Ms > 4.5, compared with only 10 given in the ISC files. Recent improved station coverage locates more events in the region, but these have not been of large magnitude, and the moment release in recent decades has been appreciably less than earlier in the century. For the events in our list the total moment release is 2.7x 1019 Nm with 75% of this originating in the main Cyprus region. We reaffirm the danger of uncritical use of standard earthquake listings for tectonic interpretation and in particular for hazard evaluation in areas such as this, where neither the historical nor the instrumental seismicity record is complete.