A new approach for separating mixed model parameters:application to simultaneous inversion of earthquake source parameters

A method for simultaneous determination of mixed model parameters,which have different physical dimensions or different responses to data,is presented.Mixed parameter estimation from observed data within a single model space shows instabilities and trade-offs of the solutions. We separate the model space into N-subspaces based on their physical properties or computational convenience and solve the N-subspaces systems by damped least-squares and singular-value decomposition. Since the condition number of each subsystem is smaller than that of the single global system,the approach can greatly increase the stability of the inversion. We also introduce different damping factors into the subsystems to reduce the tradeoffs between the different parameters. The damping factors depend on the conditioning of the subsystems and may be adequately chosen in a range from 0.1 % to 10 % of the largest singular value. We illustrate the method with an example of simultaneous determination of source history,source geometry,and hypocentral location from regional seismograms,although it is applicable to any geophysical inversion.     

震源参数反演及精度评定的Bootstrap方法

在震源参数反演理论研究中,地表形变与震源参数之间为复杂多维的非线性关系,针对传统泰勒级数展开的精度评定方法可能无法适用于震源参数的精度评定问题,本文将Bootstrap方法引入到震源参数非线性反演及精度评定研究中.通过对GPS地表形变观测数据实施Bootstrap重采样获取自助样本,使用遗传算法（Genetic Algorithm,GA）搜索震源参数,设计并给出了震源参数精度评定的Bootstrap方法计算流程.将本文方法用于6个模拟地震、Amatrice地震及Visso地震实验中,通过反演震源参数、获取参数的置信区间及中误差,并与Jackknife方法、Monte Carlo方法进行对比分析.实验结果表明,通过执行本文精度评定方法能够获取比Jackknife方法更加可靠的震源参数置信区间以及更加精确的精度信息.实验验证了将Bootstrap方法用于震源参数精度评定的有效性和可靠性,为研究震源参数精度评定理论研究提供了一种新的采样思路.

     

高分辨率非线性储层物性参数反演方法和应用

对于陆相沉积环境下的复杂隐蔽岩性储层,由于观测信息不准确,如信息重叠、信息缺失和噪音污染,以及岩石物理关系模糊等原因,储层横向预测存在不惟一性、不稳定性和不确定性.基于线性假定的常规储层横向预测技术已不适用于复杂隐蔽岩性储层的勘探.本文采用一种非线性储层岩性物性褶积模型,建立波阻抗与孔隙度/泥质含量的函数关系;通过多级结构分解和双向边沿子波检测来刻画复杂岩石物理关系;通过Caianiello褶积神经网络实现确定性反演、统计反演和非线性理论三者有机结合;最后联合应用基于逆算子的反演方法和基于正算子的重建算法实现了综合地质、测井和地震波阻抗信息进行高分辨率储层物性参数反演.非线性储层物性参数反演采用多井约束机制和分频反演方式,在陆相和近海油气勘探资料的实际应用中,取得了明显应用效果.     

2008年MS7.1于田地震InSAR同震形变场及其震源滑动反演

本研究利用InSAR技术与ALOS PALSAR雷达数据,获取了2008年3月20日于田MS7.1地震视线向同震形变场,并基于该数据集和限制性最小二乘算法反演了此次地震的断层滑动分布;通过构造四大类反演方案,详细分析了InSAR观测系统中的入射角与方位角对反演结果的影响.结果表明:入射角随点位变化对反演结果有较大影响,使用其平均值将对破裂细节产生一定影响;而方位角对反演结果的影响不大,使用其平均值是一种较为理想的选择;引入入射角与方位角变化后,反演获得了较佳的于田地震同震滑动,主要集中分布于0~14 km深度附近,最大滑动量达3.2 m,矩张量为3.3×1019 N·m,相当于矩震级MW7.0.     

Body-wave waveform constraints on the source parameters of the Yangjiang,China, earthquake of July 25, 1969: A devastating earthquake in a stable continental region

On July 25, 1969, anM _s 5.9 earthquake shook the Kwangtung Province near Yangjiang, China. Casualties and extensive damage were reported in the epicentral area. The Yangjiang earthquake occurred within the passive margin located along China's southeast coast. This stable continental setting is seismically one of the most quiet regions of China; historic records indicate this earthquake to have been the first devastating one in the area. A remarkable feature of this earthquake sequence is that its foreshocks and aftershocks are relatively small in terms of number and magnitude despite the relatively large main shock.Waveforms of long-and short-period teleseismicP and long-period teleseismicSH waves have been modeled to estimate the source parameters for this earthquake. The focal mechanism determined is predominately strike-slip with a small normal component (strike=263°, dip=79°, rake=194°) and is in good agreement with observations in the epicentral area regarding dislocation direction of fissures, distribution of aftershocks, and isoseismals. The average seismic moment is 5.15×10²⁴ dyne-cm and the focal depth is estimated to be 9 km. The earthquake is characterized by a rather short source-time function and a high stress drop of approximately 380 bars. The observed pattern of the foreshock-main shock-aftershock sequence is interpreted in terms of the large stress drop associated with the main shock and the material properties at and near the source. TheP-axis orientation lies roughly NW-SE and is consistent with the maximum compressive stress observed along the coast of southeast China. This stress orientation is consistent with the NW subducting Philippine Sea plate and the SE ward push from central China due to the convergence between Indian and Eurasian subcontinents.     

多震相走时联合三参数同时反演成像

采用新近研制的分区多步不规则最短路径多震相地震射线追踪正演技术,结合流行的子空间反演算法,提出了一种联合多震相走时资料进行地震三参数 （速度、反射界面和震源位置） 同时反演的方法技术.数值模拟反演实例、以及与双参数 （速度和反射界面或速度和震源位置） 同时反演的对比分析表明：三参数同时反演成像结果大体接近双参数同时反演成像的结果.另外,噪声敏感性试验表明：所提算法对到时数据中可容许的随机误差并不敏感,结果说明多震相走时的联合三参数同时反演成像方法技术不失为一种提高走时成像空间分辨率、进而降低重建模型参数失真度、行之有效的方法技术.     

球坐标系下多震相走时三参数同时反演成像

球坐标系下多震相走时三参数(速度、震源位置和反射界面)同时反演需要解决两个关键问题:(1)球坐标系下3D速度模型中多次透射、反射(折射)及转换波精确、快速的射线追踪;(2)同时反演时三种不同参数间的强耦合问题.为此,我们将直角坐标系下分区多步不规则最短路径算法推广至球坐标系中,进行区域或者全球尺度的多震相射线追踪.然后将其与适合多参数同时反演的子空间算法相结合,形成一种球坐标系下联合多震相走时三参数同时反演的方法技术.与双参数(速度和反射界面或速度和震源位置)同时反演的数值模拟对比分析显示:三参数与双参数的同时反演结果大体接近,并且它们对到时数据中可容许的随机噪声不太敏感.结果说明本文中的同时反演成像为一种提高成像分辨率,同时反演速度、震源位置和反射界面的有效方法.     

稳定正则化参数估计方法及其在盆地基底重力异常反演中的应用

正则化方法通过带有正则化参数的约束项,将不适定问题转换为一个适定问题.如何选取最优正则化参数一直以来都是正则化研究的难点和热点.本文通过定义解的不稳定性度量来直接估算正则化参数μ的最优值,并将这种正则化参数估计方法应用到二维沉积盆地基底重力反演中.测试该方法在通过对一次野外测量的数据加不同噪声得到的多组数据与多次野外测量中得到的多组数据这两种情况中的反演效果.最后将该方法应用到非洲西海岸的北加蓬次盆进行盆地基底反演,测试该方法的实用性.模型测试的结果显示,在这两种情况下获得的反演解非常接近且能够反演得到较为准确的模型基底深度,故该方法适用于一般情况下只进行一次野外测量的实际重力勘探情况且能得到稳定的最优反演解;实际资料的最优反演结果稳定且符合当地的地质构造背景.在模型测试与实际资料测试中,都能够确定最优正则化参数并得到最优反演结果,证明了该方法在重力反演中的正确性和实用性.

     

Application of ensemble kalman filter to geophysical parameters retrieval in remote sensing:A case study of kernel-driven BRDF model inversion

Remote sensing can provide multi-spatial resolution, multi-temporal resolution multi-spectral band and multi-angular data for the observation of land surface. At present, one of research focuses is how to make the best of these data to retrieve geophysical parameters in conjunction with their a priori knowledge and simul-taneously consider the influence of data uncertainties on inversion results[1-5]. The essence of remote sensing lies in inversion. It is difficult to precisely retrieve parame…     

基于EMD的IMF时域统计特征提取及其应用于震动事件源类型识别研究

文章对地震波形进行经验模态分解(EMD),对分解后的内模函数(IMF)进行时域特征提取,由所提取的特征对天然地震和人工爆炸2类事件源类型进行分类识别,结果表明,由IMF所提取的时域特征具有良好的区分识别能力.采用经验模态分解将原波形信号分解为7个内模函数和残差函数,对原波形、每个内模函数和残差函数分别提取26个时域统计...     

曲化平用最佳等效源模型及其单位位场表达式推导的新方法

本文以Hanson R.O.和Miyazaki Y.的论文(1984)为基础定义了"曲化平用最佳等效源模型",并利用这一模型研制出了能快速、高精度地对大面积位场观测数据实施曲化平处理的软件程序.在严格推导该模型"单位位场正演表达式"的过程中,作者根据模型与其位场正演表达式之间的映射关系,提出了推导位场正演公式的"模型变换法".采用该方法很容易地导出了该模型的形式极其简短的"单位位场正演表达式". 作者认为,推导位场正演表达式的模型变换法可能具有普遍性,建议位场理论和方法技术研究者对此给予关注,以便在自己的研究实践中遇到类似问题时,参考、试用,并予以发展和完善.     

The Akp-Btk value method and the results for the retrieval of the parameters of the Earth's free core nutation

The rotation of the Earth's liquid core creates the Nearly Diurnal Free Wobble (NDFW). It is one of the problems of researching the Earth's liquid core for us to retrieve the parameters of the Earth's Free Core Nutation (FCN), from the Earth's liquid core resonance of gravity tide waves on the diurnal frequency band. Since 1987, some scientists in many different countries have come to calculate the parameters of FCN by using the observational data of gravity tide waves on the diurnal frequency band. They basically followed the Stacking method, which needed five diurnal waves for the resolution. In this paper, authors introduced the Akp-Btk value method with clearly geometrical meaning as a new method, which only requires three very high signal-noise-ratio waves O1, K1 and P1 for the resolution. Authors chose the observational data of the three superconducting gravimeter stations respectively located in Cantley of Canada, Wuhan of China and Brussels of Belgium, to compute the parameters of FCN. It was the first time that the observational results of the parameters of FCN obtained from gravitational tide were in accord with the parameters of FCN gained from VLBI since 1987.     

一种基于地表能量平衡的遥感干旱监测新方法及其在甘肃河东地区干旱监测中的应用初探

目前遥感干旱监测方法的精度普遍不高,探求新的遥感干旱监测方法有助于干旱监测预警技术的提升与发展.波文比是感热通量与潜热通量之比,能综合反映地表水热特征,可尝试将其引入到遥感干旱监测领域加以利用.应用甘肃河东地区的EOS-MODIS卫星资料和同步地面气象资料,基于地表能量平衡原理构建了波文比干旱监测模型,对比分析了波文比（β）指数、温度植被指数（TVX）与土壤水分的相关性,并以典型晴空影像（2014年10月5日）为例初步建立了β的干旱分级标准,对研究区进行了旱情评估.结果表明：β与土壤相对湿度呈现出高度负相关,相比于当下广泛应用的TVX,β与0～20 cm平均土壤相对湿度具有更好的相关性,监测精度得到了显著提高.用β干旱分级标准评估的研究区干湿状况与前期降水空间分布吻合得相当好,评估表明2014年10月5日研究区基本为适宜（无旱）,与2014年9月的降水距平百分率特征一致.基于地表能量平衡的波文比（β）指数在干旱监测中效果突出,具有很好的应用前景.     

Downscaling of precipitation for climate change scenarios: A support vector machine approach

The Climate impact studies in hydrology often rely on climate change information at fine spatial resolution. However, general circulation models (GCMs), which are among the most advanced tools for estimating future climate change scenarios, operate on a coarse scale. Therefore the output from a GCM has to be downscaled to obtain the information relevant to hydrologic studies. In this paper, a support vector machine (SVM) approach is proposed for statistical downscaling of precipitation at monthly time scale. The effectiveness of this approach is illustrated through its application to meteorological sub-divisions (MSDs) in India. First, climate variables affecting spatio-temporal variation of precipitation at each MSD in India are identified. Following this, the data pertaining to the identified climate variables (predictors) at each MSD are classified using cluster analysis to form two groups, representing wet and dry seasons. For each MSD, SVM- based downscaling model (DM) is developed for season(s) with significant rainfall using principal components extracted from the predictors as input and the contemporaneous precipitation observed at the MSD as an output. The proposed DM is shown to be superior to conventional downscaling using multi-layer back-propagation artificial neural networks. Subsequently, the SVM-based DM is applied to future climate predictions from the second generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2) to obtain future projections of precipitation for the MSDs. The results are then analyzed to assess the impact of climate change on precipitation over India. It is shown that SVMs provide a promising alternative to conventional artificial neural networks for statistical downscaling, and are suitable for conducting climate impact studies.     

余震的序列参数稳定性和余震短期发生率预测效能的连续评估——以2014年云南鲁甸6.5级地震为例

为考察目前国际上广泛使用、对真实地震序列描述最好的"传染型余震序列模型"(ETAS)在主震后的序列参数拟合、余震短期发生率预测的效能,本研究以2014年云南鲁甸MS6.5地震序列为例,采用滑动连续拟合与预测的方式,考察了ETAS模型参数的动态变化和余震短期发生率预测的实际效能.连续滑动拟合结果表明,在主震发生后的早期阶段,α值有明显的不稳定变化,在震后5.10天稳定在1.6~2.0;p值在震后25.00天内由1.07逐渐下降至0.78左右,其后稳定在0.72~0.85;b值在震后35.00天内逐渐由0.80增加至0.95,其后稳定在0.93~0.97.对连续滑动预测结果的N-test检验表明,余震发生率预测会出现部分失效现象,1天预测时间窗失效比例约为12%、3天预测时间窗失效比例为6%.建议可在震后早期采用1天的较短预测时间窗,而在序列参数较为稳定时段采用较长的3天预测时间窗.     

A new approach of selecting real input ground motions for seismic design: The most unfavourable real seismic design ground motions

This paper presents a new way of selecting real input ground motions for seismic design and analysis of structures based on a comprehensive method for estimating the damage potential of ground motions, which takes into consideration of various ground motion parameters and structural seismic damage criteria in terms of strength, deformation, hysteretic energy and dual damage of Park & Ang damage index. The proposed comprehensive method fully involves the effects of the intensity, frequency content and duration of ground motions and the dynamic characteristics of structures. Then, the concept of the most unfavourable real seismic design ground motion is introduced. Based on the concept, the most unfavourable real seismic design ground motions for rock, stiff soil, medium soil and soft soil site conditions are selected in terms of three typical period ranges of structures. The selected real strong motion records are suitable for seismic analysis of important structures whose failure or collapse will be avoided at a higher level of confidence during the strong earthquake, as they can cause the greatest damage to structures and thereby result in the highest damage potential from an extended real ground motion database for a given site. In addition, this paper also presents the real input design ground motions with medium damage potential, which can be used for the seismic analysis of structures located at the area with low and moderate seismicity. The most unfavourable real seismic design ground motions are verified by analysing the seismic response of structures. It is concluded that the most unfavourable real seismic design ground motion approach can select the real ground motions that can result in the highest damage potential for a given structure and site condition, and the real ground motions can be mainly used for structures whose failure or collapse will be avoided at a higher level of confidence during the strong earthquake. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Benthic macro red alga: A new possible bio-precursor of Jurassic mudstone source rocks in the northern Qaidam Basin,northwestern China

Whether benthic macroalga can be an important type of bio-precursor of source rocks is a contentious issue in source-rock studies, and has not been well understood. This paper represents a case study of Jurassic mudstone source rocks from the northern Qaidam Basin, northwestern China, in which the benthic macro red algae were recognized for the first time based on combined organic petrological and biomarker works. We found not only cystocarps in the algae, representative of rhodophyta, but also diahopanes, which are diagnostic biomarkers of such algae. Thus, as many reservoired oils in the northern Qaidam Basin contain abundant diahopanes, it may indicate that the red algae have contributed to hydrocarbon accumulation. This was confirmed by integrated geological and geochemical analyses. Hence, this study provides new evidence for macroalga-generated hydrocarbons. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40602014, 40872086, 40638042)     

近断层应力变化快速计算方法及对强余震空间分布的指示意义:以M_w7.9汶川地震为例

构造地震一般由断层摩擦失稳所致.断层内部及周边所累积的剪切形变则通过同震滑动位移得到局部释放.因此,震后断层内部及近断层周边的静态剪切应力变化量的空间分布可通过断层面上的滑动位移分布计算得到.本文采用傅氏变换方法(FTM)计算单一有限断层同震滑移场所形成的静态剪切应力变化分布,近断层两侧的应力变化计算可由波数域内应力近似算法获得.结果表明,FTM快速有效、易于实现,有效地避免了常规应力计算中奇异值的出现.以2008年Mw7.9中国汶川大地震为例,采用前人所得有限断层滑动位移模型,得到了断层面和近断层周边准3D剪切应力分布解,并同主震后中强余震的空间分布特征作了比较.结果表明,大部分的中强余震震源位置处于剪切应力变化值为正的区域,由同震位移所产生的局部应力降峰值和均值大小同应力变化的正值大致相当,从而表明了快速且有效地计算断层内部及近断层附近的应力变化分布可以为主震后强余震发生的潜在区域提供指示意义.需要强调的是,应力变化空间分布特征的获取强烈地依赖于有限断层滑移模型解.有关滑动位移反演解的多解性对应力变化计算结果的影响,本文作了必要的讨论.     

基于EFDC模型的河道型水库藻类生长对流域污染负荷削减的响应——以广东长潭水库为例

将环境(EFDC)模型应用于广东梅州的河道型水库——长潭水库,经过模型的验证,建立长潭水库水生态数学模型,模拟出水库在现状污染负荷下的藻类生长情况,以叶绿素a浓度为指标,研究水库在丰水年与枯水年富营养化改善程度对不同流域污染削减方案的响应关系.结果表明:现状污染负荷削减10%,在丰水年库尾、库中和库首点位的叶绿素a平均浓度分别降低13.99%、12.00%和10.35%;枯水年3个代表点位叶绿素a平均浓度分别下降8.42%、5.63%和2.10%.污染削减20%的情况下,丰水年3个代表点位的叶绿素a浓度分别降低26.78%、19.25%和17.04%,枯水年对应的降低幅度分别为11.72%、7.97%和5.12%;库尾地区表现出河道的特征,在污染负荷削减的情况下藻类生长能够受到有效遏制,库首地区则表现出湖泊的特性,枯水年这一特征表现更加突出,污染削减20%的情况下,叶绿素a的平均浓度仅降低5.12%.