Dynamics of the circulation in the Sea of Marmara: numerical modeling experiments and observations from the Turkish straits system experiment

During September 2008 and February 2009, the NR/V Alliance extensively sampled the waters of the Sea of Marmara within the framework of the Turkish Straits System (TSS) experiment coordinated by the NATO Undersea Research Centre. The observational effort provided an opportunity to set up realistic numerical experiments for modeling the observed variability of the Marmara Sea upper layer circulation at mesoscale resolution over the entire basin during the trial period, complementing relevant features and forcing factors revealed by numerical model results with information acquired from in situ and remote sensing datasets. Numerical model solutions from realistic runs using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) produce a general circulation in the Sea of Marmara that is consistent with previous knowledge of the circulation drawn from past hydrographic measurements, with a westward meandering current associated with a recurrent large anticyclone. Additional idealized numerical experiments illuminate the role various dynamics play in determining the Sea of Marmara circulation and pycnocline structure. Both the wind curl and the strait flows are found to strongly influence the strength and location of the main mesoscale features. Large displacements of the pycnocline depth were observed during the sea trials. These displacements can be interpreted as storm-driven upwelling/downwelling dynamics associated with northeasterly winds; however, lateral advection associated with flow from the Straits also played a role in some displacements.     

Modeling of the Bosphorus exchange flow dynamics

The fundamental hydrodynamic behavior of the Bosphorus Strait is investigated through a numerical modeling study using alternative configurations of idealized or realistic geometry. Strait geometry and basin stratification conditions allow for hydraulic controls and are ideally suited to support the maximal-exchange regime, which determines the rate of exchange of waters originating from the adjacent Black and Mediterranean Seas for a given net transport. Steady-state hydraulic controls are demonstrated by densimetric Froude number calculations under layered flow approximations when corrections are applied to account for high velocity shears typically observed in the Bosphorus. Analyses of the model results reveal many observed features of the strait, including critical transitions at hydraulic controls and dissipation by turbulence and hydraulic jumps. It is found that the solution depends on initialization, especially with respect to the basin initial conditions. Significant differences between the controlled maximal-exchange and drowned solutions suggest that a detailed modeling implementation involving coupling with adjacent basins needs to take full account of the Bosphorus Strait in terms of the physical processes to be resolved.     

Modelling the impact of Black Sea water inflow on the North Aegean Sea hydrodynamics

The impact of the Black Sea Water (BSW) inflow on the circulation and the water mass characteristics of the North Aegean Sea is investigated using a high-resolution 3D numerical model. Four climatological numerical experiments are performed exploring the effects of the exchange amplitude at the Dardanelles Straits in terms of the mean annual volume exchanged and the amplitude of its seasonal cycle. Larger inflow of low salinity BSW influences the water characteristics of the whole basin. The largest salinity reduction is encountered in the upper layers of the water column, and the most affected region is the northeastern part of the basin. The winter insulation character of the BSW layer (low-salinity layer) is reduced by the seasonal cycle of the inflow (minimum during winter). The maximum atmospheric cooling coincides with the minimum BSW inflow rate, weakening the vertical density gradients close to the surface and thus facilitating the vertical mixing. The inflow rate of BSW into the North Aegean Sea constitutes an essential factor for the circulation in the basin. Increased inflow rate results into considerably higher kinetic energy, stronger circulation and reinforcement of the mesoscale circulation features. Although the position of the front between BSW and waters of Levantine origin does not vary significantly with the intensity of the BSW inflow rate, the flow along the front becomes stronger and more unstable as the inflow rate increases, forming meanders and rings. The changes in the intensity of BSW inflow rate overpower the wind and thermohaline forcing and largely determine the general circulation of the North Aegean Sea.     

Cascading ocean basins: numerical simulations of the circulation and interbasin exchange in the Azov-Black-Marmara-Mediterranean Seas system

In this paper, we use the unstructured grid model SCHISM to simulate the thermohydrodynamics in a chain of baroclinic, interconnected basins. The model shows a good skill in simulating the horizontal circulation and vertical profiles of temperature, salinity, and currents. The magnitude and phases of the seasonal changes of circulation are consistent with earlier observations. Among the mesoscale and subbasin-scale circulation features that are realistically simulated are the anticyclonic coastal eddies, the Sebastopol and Batumi eddies, the Marmara Sea outflow around the southern coast of the Limnos Island, and the pathway of the cold water originating from the shelf. The superiority of the simulations compared to earlier numerical studies is demonstrated with the example of model capabilities to resolve the strait dynamics, gravity currents originating from the straits, high-salinity bottom layer on the shallow shelf, as well as the multiple intrusions from the Bosporus Strait down to 700 m depth. The warm temperature intrusions from the strait produce the warm water mass in the intermediate layers of the Black Sea. One novel result is that the seasonal intensification of circulation affects the interbasin exchange, thus allowing us to formulate the concept of circulation-controlled interbasin exchange. To the best of our knowledge, the present numerical simulations, for the first time, suggest that the sea level in the interior part of the Black Sea can be lower than the sea level in the Marmara Sea and even in some parts of the Aegean Sea. The comparison with observations shows that the timings and magnitude of exchange flows are also realistically simulated, along with the blocking events. The short-term variability of the strait transports is largely controlled by the anomalies of wind. The simulations demonstrate the crucial role of the narrow and shallow strait of Bosporus in separating the two pairs of basins: Aegean-Marmara Seas from one side and Azov-Black Seas from the other side. The straits of Kerch and Dardanelles provide sufficient interbasin connectivity that prevents large phase lags of the sea levels in the neighboring basins. The two-layer flows in the three straits considered here show different dependencies upon the net transport, and the spatial variability of this dependence is also quite pronounced. We show that the blocking of the surface flow can occur at different net transports, thus casting doubt on a previous approach of using simple relationships to prescribe (steady) outflow and inflow. Specific attention is paid to the role of synoptic atmospheric forcing for the basin-wide circulation and redistribution of mass in the Black Sea. An important controlling process is the propagation of coastal waves. One major conclusion from this research is that modeling the individual basins separately could result in large inaccuracies because of the critical importance of the cascading character of these interconnected basins.     

Modelling travel and residence times in the eastern Irish Sea

The Irish Sea, which lies between 51 degrees N-56 degrees N and 2 degrees 50'W-7 degrees W, provides a sheltered environment to exploit valuable fisheries resource. Anthropogenic activity is a real threat to its water quality. The majority of freshwater input down rivers flows into the eastern Irish Sea. The structure of the water circulation was not well understood during the planning of Sellafield nuclear plant outfall site in the eastern Irish Sea. A three-dimensional primitive equation numerical model was applied to the Irish Sea to simulate both barotropic and baroclinic circulation within the region. High accuracy was achieved with regard to the prediction of both tidal circulation and surface and nearbed water temperatures across the region. The model properly represented the Western Irish Sea Gyre, induced by thermal stratification and not known during planning Sellafield. Passive tracer simulations based on the developed hydrodynamic model were used to deliver residence times of the eastern Irish Sea region for various times of the year as well as travel times from the Sellafield outfall site to various locations within the Irish Sea. The results indicate a strong seasonal variability of travel times from Sellafield to the examined locations. Travel time to the Clyde Sea is the shortest for the autumnal tracer release (90 days); it takes almost a year for the tracer to arrive at the same location if it is released in January. Travel times from Sellafield to Dublin Bay fall within the range of 180-360 days. The average residence time of the entire eastern Irish Sea is around 7 months. The areas surrounding the Isle of Man are initially flushed due to a predominant northward flow; a backwater is formed in Liverpool Bay. Thus, elevated tracer concentrations are predicted in Liverpool Bay in the case of accidental spills at the Sellafield outfall site.     

Variations in the Black Sea water salinity from its latest salinization to the present state: Estimation based on mathematical modeling

The available published data were used to reveal the principal conditions and factors that control the formation and evolution of the Black Sea water salinity. Formalization of the major processes that contribute to the formation of sea salinity structure enabled, based on the present-day data on water balance, the reproduction of profiles of water salinity and the coefficient of vertical water exchange K _Z after 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10 ka since the beginning of water exchange with the Sea of Marmara through the Bosphorus. The time during which the present-day profile of the Black Sea water salinity had formed was evaluated. The results of simulation for different formation stages of the Black Sea salinity structure were used to determine the major ways of salt input into the sea (with river runoff and waters of the Lower Bosphorus Current) and its removal from the sea (the Upper Bosphorus Current). It was established that the Black Sea water salinity regime has virtually attained a stationary state.Translated from Vodnye Resursy, Vol. 32, No. 2, 2005, pp. 154–164.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Leonov.     

Lateral dynamics and associated transport of sediment in the upper reaches of a partially mixed estuary,Chesapeake Bay,USA

Data from time series of transects made over a tidal period across a section of the upper Chesapeake Bay, USA, reveal the influence of lateral dynamics on sediment transport in an area with a deep channel and broad extents of shallower flanks. Contributions to lateral momentum by rotation (Coriolis plus channel curvature), cross channel density gradients and cross channel surface slope were estimated, and the friction and acceleration terms needed to complete the balance were compared to patterns of observed lateral circulation. During ebb, net rotation effects were larger because of river velocity and reinforcement of Coriolis by curvature. During flood, stratification was greater because of landward advection of strong vertical density gradients. Together, the ebb intensified lateral circulation and flood intensified stratification focused sediment and sediment transport along the left side of the estuary (looking seaward). The tendency for greater stratification on flood and net sediment flux toward the left-hand shoal are contrary to more common models which, in the northern hemisphere, predict greater resuspension on flood and move sediment toward the right-hand shoal. These tidal asymmetries interact with the lateral circulation to focus net sediment flux on the left side of the estuary, and to produce net ebb directed sediment transport at the surface of the same order of magnitude as net flood directed sediment transport at the bottom.     

Influence of open boundary conditions and sill height upon seiche motion in a gulf

A cross-sectional model of an idealised constant depth gulf with a sill at its entrance, connected to a deep ocean, is used to examine the barotropic and baroclinic response of the region to wind forcing. The role of the oceanic boundary condition is also considered. Calculations show that in the case of a tall sill, where the pycnocline intersects the sill, the baroclinic response of the gulf is similar to that of a lake, and internal waves cannot radiate energy out of the gulf. The barotropic response shows free surface oscillations, with nodes located close to the centre of the oceanic basin and entrance to the gulf, with associated barotropic resonant periods. As the sill height is reduced, baroclinic wave energy is radiated from the gulf into the ocean, and the form of the baroclinic response changes from a standing wave (tall sill) as in a lake to a progressive wave (no sill). The location of sea surface elevation nodes and resonant periods changes as the sill height is reduced. Calculations of the barotropic resonant periods with and without stratification could not determine if they were influenced by the presence of stratification, although published analytical theory suggests that they should be able to when energy is lost from the gulf by internal wave radiation. This inability to detect changes in barotropic resonant period due to stratification effects is due to the small change in resonant frequency produced by baroclinic effects, as shown by analytical results, and the broad peak nature of the computed resonant frequency. In the case of a closed offshore boundary (an offshore island), there is a stronger and narrower energy peak at the resonant frequency than when a barotropic radiation condition is applied. However, the influence of stratification upon the resonant frequency could not be accurately determined. Although the offshore boundary was well removed from the gulf to such an extent that any baroclinic waves reflected from it could not reach the gulf within the integration period, it did, however, slightly influence the gulf baroclinic response due to its influence on the barotropic response.     

Hydrodynamics of Canal Istanbul and its impact in the northern Sea of Marmara under extreme conditions

Ocean Dynamics - The Bosphorus, located at the junction of Asia and Europe, controls the transports of water, material, and energy between the Black Sea (BS) and the Mediterranean Sea. The Canal...     

On the dynamics of strait flows: an ocean model study of the Aleutian passages and the Bering Strait

A high-resolution numerical ocean circulation model of the Bering Sea (BS) is used to study the natural variability of the BS straits. Three distinct categories of strait dynamics have been identified: (1) Shallow passages such as the Bering Strait and the Unimak Passage have northward, near barotropic flow with periodic pulses of larger transports; (2) wide passages such as Near Straits, Amukta Pass, and Buldir Pass have complex flow patterns driven by the passage of mesoscale eddies across the strait; and (3) deep passages such as Amchitka Pass and Kamchatka Strait have persistent deep return flows opposite in direction to major surface currents; the deep flows persist independent of the local wind. Empirical orthogonal function analyses reveal the spatial structure and the temporal variability of strait flows and demonstrate how mesoscale variations in the Aleutian passages influence the Bering Strait flow toward the Arctic Ocean. The study suggests a general relation between the barotropic and baroclinic Rossby radii of deformations in each strait, and the level of flow variability through the strait, independent of geographical location. The mesoscale variability in the BS seems to originate from two different sources: a remote origin from variability in the Alaskan Stream that enters the BS through the Aleutian passages and a local origin from the interaction of currents with the Bowers Ridge in the Aleutian Basin. Comparisons between the flow in the Aleutian passages and flow in other straits, such as the Yucatan Channel and the Faroe Bank Channel, suggest some universal topographically induced dynamics in strait flows.     

Long-term inter-annual variability of a cyclonic gyre in the western Irish Sea

The western Irish Sea gyre (WISG) is a cyclonic baroclinic flow around a dome of stagnant water which develops each year during the heating season in the western Irish Sea. Research was carried out to determine long-term changes in the strength of stratification within WISG and associated changes in the gyre structure, circulation patterns and retentive properties. Model simulations were carried out for the 58-year period 1951-2008. The characteristics of the gyre were quantified by means of potential energy anomaly (PEA), measuring the strength of stratification, and total kinetic energy (KE), reflecting the strength of cyclonic circulation. Additionally, long-term changes in flushing rates within the gyre were assessed.Results show that stratification in the western Irish Sea consistently begins to develop in March, increases linearly from April till June, peaks at the beginning of July and remains at close to maximum level throughout the month of July, before a start of a sharp decline at the beginning of August. The strength of stratification is significantly correlated with averaged summer air temperatures and summer wind speeds. Trend analysis of PEA shows an increase in the stratification strength over the period considered; the increase of PEA peak value is accompanied by a shortening of the gyre duration and a delay in the timing of the peak value. There is also an increasing trend in the KE value, showing that the thermal stratification plays a crucial role in the hydrography of the region. Flushing analysis shows that the stronger the stratification the lower the residence time and thus the faster the removal of the material from the western Irish Sea. Residence time within WISG shortens on average by 8 days over the 58-year period.     

The future of the western Baltic Sea: two possible scenarios

Globally coupled climate models are generally capable of reproducing the observed trends in the globally averaged atmospheric temperature. However, the global models do not perform as well on regional scales. Here, we present results from four 100-year, high-resolution ocean model experiments (resolution less than 1 km) for the western Baltic Sea. The forcing is taken from a regional atmospheric model and a regional ocean model, imbedded into two global greenhouse gas emission scenarios, A1B and B1, for the period of 2000 to 2100 with each two realisations. Two control runs from 1960 to 2000 are used for validation. For both scenarios, the results show a warming with an increase of 0.5–2.5 K at the sea surface and 0.7–2.8 K below 40 m. The simulations further indicate a decrease in salinity by 1.5–2 practical salinity units. The increase in water temperature leads to a prolongation of heat waves based on present-day thresholds. This amounts to a doubling or even tripling of the heat wave duration. The simulations show a decrease in inflow events (barotropic/baroclinic), which will affect the deepwater generation and ventilation of the central Baltic Sea. The high spatial resolution allows us to diagnose the inflow events and the mechanism that will cause future changes. The reduction in barotropic inflow events correlates well with the increase in westerly winds. The changes in the baroclinic inflows can be consistently explained by the reduction of calm wind periods and thus a weakening of the necessary stratification in the western Baltic Sea and the Danish Straits.     

南海蒸发和净淡水通量的季节和年际变化

以19年（1988～2006年）的SSM/I（Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager）卫星观测为基础,计算了南海的逐月海面蒸发量,并结合SSM/I的降雨观测,得到了南海的逐月净淡水通量,并分析其季节和年际变化.研究结果表明：南海的蒸发量年变化基本呈双峰型结构,降雨和净淡水通量呈单峰型结构.1988～2001年,南海的蒸发量呈上升趋势,增长速率为1 mm/yr;2001～2006年,以1.9 mm/yr的速率减少.南海的降雨量和净淡水通量与Nino3指数成负相关,相关系数为-0.62和-0.58.在1997～1998厄尔尼诺暖事件期间,降雨量和净淡水通量均显著下降,且以其为界,降雨量在此之前以1.3 mm/yr的速率增长,净淡水通量升降趋势不明显;而在此之后,降雨以8.5 mm/yr的速率下降,净淡水通量的下降速率为7.5 mm/yr.     

Numerical analysis of the Black Sea currents and mesoscale eddies in 2006 and 2011

Two prognostic experiments taking into account real atmospheric forcing for 2006 and 2011 were carried out based on the eddy-resolving numerical model with a horizontal resolution of 1.6 km for the Black Sea. The main dynamic features such as the Rim Current, the Sevastopol, and Batumi anticyclones are reproduced in both experiments. The model results are confirmed via observation data. We accomplished the analysis of simulated circulation and energetics. The results demonstrate that both the vertical viscosity and vertical diffusion along with the energy inflow from the wind have been the main contributors to the annual and seasonal budgets of kinetic and potential energies of the Black Sea circulation. It is shown that two regimes of the Black Sea general circulation are implemented depending on a magnitude of wind contribution to the kinetic energy in winter. Intensive mesoscale eddy formation was observed along the Anatolian, Caucasian, and Crimean coasts. The analysis of the Black Sea circulation and eddy energetics allowed us to conclude that the generation and development of the mesoscale coastal eddies is associated with the barotropic instability in case of intensive coastal currents and is associated with both the barotropic and baroclinic instability in case of weak coastal currents.     

Modelling atmospheric and induced non-tidal oceanic loading contributions to surface gravity and tilt measurements

We investigate the contribution of atmospheric and its induced non-tidal oceanic loading effects on surface time-varying gravity and tilt measurements for several stations in Western Europe. The ocean response to pressure forcing can be modelled accordingly to the inverted barometer, i.e. assuming that air pressure variations are fully compensated by static sea height changes, or using ocean general circulation models. We validate two runs of the HUGO-m barotropic ocean model by comparing predicted sea surface height variations with hundred tide-gauge measurements along the European coasts. We then show that global surface pressure field, as well as a barotropic high-resolution ocean model forced by air pressure and winds allow in most cases a significant reduction of the variance of gravity residuals and, to a smaller extends tilt residuals.We finally show that precise gravity measurements with superconducting gravimeters allow the observation of large storm surges, occurring in the North Sea, even for inland stations. However, we also confirm that the continental hydrology contribution cannot be neglected. Thanks to their specific sensitivity feature, only tiltmeters closest to the coast can clearly detect the loading due to these storm surges.     

Air-sea Coupling During the Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean: A Case Study Using Satellite Observations

In the years 1999 and 2001, three intense tropical cyclones formed over the northern Indian Ocean—two over the Bay of Bengal during 15–19 and 25–29 October, 1999 and one over the Arabian Sea during 21–28 May, 2001. We examined the thermal, salinity and circulation responses at the sea surface due to these severe cyclones in order to understand the air-sea coupling using data from satellite measurements and model simulations. It is found that the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) cooled by about 0.5 °–0.8 °C in the Bay of Bengal and 2 °C in the Arabian Sea. In the Bay of Bengal, this cooling took place beneath the cyclone center whereas in the Arabian Sea, the cooling occurred behind the cyclone only a few days later. This contrasting oceanic response resulted mainly from the salinity stratification in the Bay of Bengal and thermal stratification in the Arabian Sea and the associated mixing processes. In particular, the cyclones moved over the region of low salinity and smaller mixed layer depth with a distinct mixed layer deepening to the left side of the cyclone track. It is envisaged that daily satellite estimates of SST and Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) using Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and model simulated mixed layer depth would be useful for the study of tropical cyclones and prediction of their path over the northern Indian Ocean.     

Satellite-derived variability of the Aegean Sea ecohydrodynamics

Eight years of AVHRR-derived sea surface temperature (SST) and SeaWiFS-derived surface chlorophyll (Chl) data (1998–2005) are used to investigate key processes affecting the spatial and temporal variability of the two parameters in the Aegean Sea. Seasonal mean SST and Chl maps are constructed using daily data to study seasonal dynamics whereas empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and correlational analysis is applied to the 8-day composite SST and Chl anomaly time-series in order to study the variability and co-variability of the two parameters from subseasonal to interannual time-scales. The seasonal mean fields show that Black Sea cold and chlorophyll-rich waters enter through the Dardanelles Strait and they are accumulated in the north-eastern part of the Aegean Sea, steered by the Samothraki anticyclone. Large chlorophyll concentrations are encountered in the hydrological front off the Dardanelles Strait as well as in coastal areas affected by large riverine/anthropogenic nutrient loads. The SST seasonal mean patterns reveal strong cooling that is associated with upwelling along the eastern boundary of the basin during summer due to strong northerly winds, a process which is not present in the surface chlorophyll climatology. The Chl dataset presents much stronger sub-seasonal variability than SST, with large variations in the phase and strength of the phytoplankton seasonal cycles. EOF analysis of the anomaly time-series shows that SST non-seasonal variability is controlled by synoptic weather variations and anomalies in the north–south wind-stress component regulating the summer coastal upwelling regime. Mean SST and Chl patterns, and their associated variations, are not closely linked implying that Black Sea and riverine inputs mainly control the intra-annual and interannual variability of the surface chlorophyll in the Aegean Sea rather than mixing and/or upwelling processes.     

Şarköy-Mürefte 1912 Earthquake's Tsunami, extension of the associated faulting in the Marmara Sea, Turkey

The historical tsunamis in the Marmara Seawere mainly caused by earthquakes andneeded to be documented. Following 1999Izmit earthquake occurred at the EasternMarmara region, a complete inventory ofactive faults in the Marmara Sea regionbecame much more stressed. To the west, thelatest event is 09.08.1912arköy-Mürefte Earthquake. Itoccurred on the active Ganos Fault zone andwas one of the largest earthquakes in theBalkans. The eastern termination of theassociated faulting is in the deep WestMarmara Trough, westernmost of thesuccessive basins forming the Marmara Sea.On the basis of recent multibeam bathymetryand seismic reflection data, estimatedtotal length of the surface rupture isabout 56 km. The historical data reviewedfrom library and archive documents,geological field surveys and offshoregeophysical investigations have shown thatthe 1912 earthquake produced a tsunami. Inaddition a seabed dislocation, the sourceof 1912 tsunami can also be assigned to thesediment slumps appearing in the form ofechelon landslide prisms along the southernslopes of the West Marmara Trough.     

Interbasin freshwater,heat and salt transport through the boundaries of the East and South China Seas from a variable-grid global ocean circulation model

It has long been recognized that the circulation in the East China Sea (ECS) and Japan/East Sea (JES) is closely related with that in Pacific, especially with the Kuroshio (e.g., Nitani[1], Hi-daka[2]). Based on current measurements in the Taiwan Strait a…