Numerical study of seasonal circulation and variability over the inner shelf of the northern South China Sea

This study examines seasonal circulation, hydrography, and associated spatial variability over the inner shelf of the northern South China Sea (NSCS) using a nested-grid coastal ocean circulation model. The model external forcing consists of tides, atmospheric forcing, and open boundary conditions based on the global ocean circulation and hydrography reanalysis produced by the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean model. Five numerical experiments are conducted with different combinations of external forcing functions to examine main physical processes affecting the seasonal circulation in the study region. Model results demonstrate that the monthly mean circulation in the study region features the Guangdong Coastal Current (GCC) over coastal waters and the South China Sea Warm Current (SCSWC) in the offshore deep waters. The GCC produced by the model flows nearly southwestward in winter months and northwestward in summer months, which agrees with previous studies. The SCSWC flows roughly northeastward and is well defined in summer months. In winter months, by comparison, the SCSWC is superseded by the southwestward strong wind-driven currents. Analysis of model results in five different experiments demonstrates that the monthly mean circulation over coastal and inner shelf waters of the NSCS can be approximated by barotropic currents forced by the southwestward monsoon winds in winter months. In summer months, by comparison, the monthly mean circulation in the study region is affected significantly by baroclinic dynamics associated with freshwater runoff from the Pearl River and advection of warm and saline waters carried by the SCSWC over the NSCS.     

Numerical study of three-dimensional shelf circulation on the Scotian Shelf using a shelf circulation model

A numerical shelf circulation model was developed for the Scotian Shelf, using a nested-grid setup consisting of a three-dimensional baroclinic inner model embedded inside a two-dimensional barotropic outer model. The shelf circulation model is based on the Princeton Ocean Model and driven by three-hourly atmospheric forcing provided by a numerical weather forecast model and by tidal forcing specified at the inner model's open boundaries based on pre-calculated tidal harmonic constants. The outer model simulates the depth-mean circulation forced by wind and atmospheric pressure fields over the northwest Atlantic Ocean with a horizontal resolution of 1/12°. The inner model simulates the three-dimensional circulation over the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Scotian Shelf, and the adjacent slope with a horizontal resolution of 1/16°. The performance of the shelf circulation model is assessed by comparing model results with oceanographic observations made along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia and in the vicinity of Sable Island (on the Scotian Shelf) during two periods: October 2000–March 2001 and April–June 2002. Analysis of model results on Sable Island Bank indicates that tidal currents account for as much as ∼80% of the total variance of near-bottom currents, and currents driven by local winds account for ∼30% of the variance of the non-tidal near-bottom currents. Shelf waves generated remotely by winds and propagating into the region also play an important role in the near-bottom circulation on the bank.     

Tidal and wind-induced circulation within the Southeastern limit of the Bay of Biscay: Pasaia Bay,Basque Coast

The Basque coastal area, in the southeastern Bay of Biscay, can be characterised as being more influenced by land climate and inputs, than other typically ‘open sea’ areas. The influence of coastal processes, together with the presence of irregular and steep topography, complicate greatly the water circulation patterns. Water movement along the Basque coastal area is not well understood; observations are scarce and long-term current records are lacking. The knowledge available is confined to the surface currents: the surface water circulation is controlled mainly by wind forcing, with tidal and density currents being weak. However, there is a lack of knowledge available on currents within the lower levels of the water column; likewise, on the main time-scales involved in the water circulation. This study quantifies the contribution of the tidal and wind-induced currents, to the overall water circulation; it identifies the main time-scales involved within the tidal and wind-induced flows, investigating difference in such currents, throughout the water column, within Pasaia Bay (Basque coast). Within this context, extensive oceanographic and meteorological data have been obtained, in order to describe the circulation. The present investigation reveals that the circulation, within the surface and the sub-surface waters, is controlled mainly by wind forcing fluctuations, over a wide range of meteorological frequencies: third-diurnal, semidiurnal and diurnal land–sea breezes; synoptic variability; frequencies, near fortnightly periods; and seasonal. At the lower levels of the water column, the main contribution to the water circulation arises from residual currents, followed by wind-induced currents on synoptic time-scales. In contrast, tidal currents contribute minimally to the overall circulation throughout the water column.     

Investigation of three-dimensional circulation and hydrography over the Pearl River Estuary of China using a nested-grid coastal circulation model

The Pearl River Estuary (PRE) in South China's Guangdong Province is a subtropical estuary with highly irregular topography and dynamically complicated circulations. A nested-grid coastal circulation modelling system is used in this study to examine dynamic responses of the PRE to tides, meteorological forcing and buoyancy forcing. The nested-grid modelling system is based on the Princeton Ocean Model and consists of three downscaling subcomponents: including an outer-most model with a coarse horizontal resolution of ~7 km for simulating tidally forced and wind-driven surface elevations and depth-mean currents over the China Seas from Bohai Sea to the northern South China Sea and an innermost model with a fine resolution of ~1.2 km for simulating the 3D coastal circulation and hydrography over the PRE and adjacent coastal waters. Model results during the winter northeast monsoon surge in January and super typhoon Koryn in June of 1993 are used to demonstrate that the 3D coastal circulation and hydrographic distributions in the PRE are affected by tides, winds and buoyancy forcing associated with river discharge from the Pearl River with significant seasonal and synoptic variabilities.     

An assessment of the impact of surface currents on wave modeling in the Southern Ocean

This paper presents an assessment of the impact of the ocean circulation on modeled wave fields in the Southern Ocean, where a systematic positive bias of the modeled wave height against altimetry data has been reported. The inclusion of ocean currents in the wave model considerably reduces the positive bias of the simulated wave height for high southern latitudes. The decrease of wave energy in the presence of currents is almost exclusively related to the reduction of the relative wind, caused by an overall co-flowing current field associated with the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Improvements of the model results are also found for the peak period and the mean period against a long-term moored buoy. At the mooring location, the effect of currents is greater for larger and longer waves, suggesting remotely generated swells are more influenced by the currents than local waves. However, an additional qualitative analysis using high-resolution currents in a finer grid nested to the global coarser grid shows that typical resolution of global hydrodynamic reanalysis is not sufficient to resolve mesoscale eddies, and as a consequence, the simulation of mesoscale wave patterns can be compromised. The results are also discussed in terms of the accuracy of forcing fields.     

Numerical study of circulation and temperature-salinity distributions in the Bras d’Or Lakes

The Bras d’Or Lakes (BdOL) are a large, complex and virtually land-locked estuary in central Cape Breton Island of Nova Scotia and one of Canada’s charismatic ecosystems, sustaining ecological and cultural communities unique in many aspects. The BdOL comprise two major basins, many deep and shallow bays, several narrow channels and straits and a large, geologically complex watershed. Predictive knowledge of the water movement within the estuary is a key requirement for effective management and sustainable development of the BdOL ecosystem. A three-dimensional (3D) primitive-equation ocean circulation model is used to examine the estuary’s response to tides, winds and buoyancy forcing associated with freshwater runoff in a series of numerical experiments validated with empirical data. The model results generate intense, jet-like tidal flows of about 1 m s^?1 in the channels between the basins and connecting them to the ocean and relatively weak tidal currents in other regions, which agrees well with previous observations and numerical results. Wind forcing and buoyancy forcing associated with river runoff play important roles in generating the significant sub-tidal circulations in the estuary, including narrow channels, deep basins and shallow bays. The circulation model is also used to reconstruct the 3D circulation and temperature-salinity distributions in the summer months of 1974, when current and hydrographic measurements were made at several locations. The sub-tidal circulation in the estuary produced by the model is characterised by wind and barometric set-up and set-down in different sections of the system, and a classic two-layer estuarine circulation in which brackish, near-surface waters flow seaward from the estuary into the Atlantic Ocean, and deep salty waters flow landward through the major channel. The model results reproduce reasonably well the overall features of observed circulation and temperature-salinity fields made in the BdOL in 1974 but generally underestimate the observed currents and density stratification. The model discrepancies reflect the use of spatially mean wind forcing and spatially and monthly mean surface heat flux and the inability of the coarse model horizontal resolution (～500 m) to resolve narrow channels and straits.     

Numerical study of surface water circulation around Sekisei Lagoon, southwest Japan

This paper discusses the variability of surface currents around Sekisei Lagoon using a nested grid ocean circulation model. We developed a triple-nested grid system that consists of a coarse-resolution (1/60° or ∼1.85 km) model off Taiwan, an intermediate-resolution (1/300° or ∼370 m) model around the Yaeyama Islands, and a fine-resolution (1/900° or ∼123 m) model of Sekisei Lagoon. The nested grid system was forced by wind and heat flux calculated from six-hourly atmospheric reanalysis data and integrated over the period from May to July 2003. The coarse-resolution model was driven by lateral boundary conditions calculated from daily ocean reanalysis data to include realistic variation of the Kuroshio and mesoscale eddies with spatial scales of ∼500–700 km in the open ocean. The tidal forcing was included in the intermediate-resolution model by interpolating sea level data obtained from a data-assimilative tidal model. The results were then used to drive the fine-resolution model to simulate the surface water circulation around Sekisei lagoon. Model results show that (1) currents inside the lagoon are mainly driven by tide and wind; (2) there exists a strong southwestward current along the bottom slope in the southeast portion of the lagoon; the current is mainly driven by remote mesoscale eddies and at times intensified by the local wind; (3) the flow relaxation scheme is effective in reducing biases along the open boundaries. The simulated currents were used to examine the retention and dispersion of passive particles in the surface layer. Results show that the surface dispersion in the strong open ocean current region is significantly higher than that inside the lagoon.     

Study on subtidal circulation and variability in the Gulf of St. Lawrence,Scotian Shelf,and Gulf of Maine using a nested-grid shelf circulation model

This paper examines the subtidal circulation and associated variability in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Scotian Shelf, and the Gulf of Maine (GSL-SS-GOM) in 1988–2004 based on results produced by a nested-grid shelf circulation model. The model has a fine-resolution child model (～ (1/12)°) embedded inside a coarse-resolution parent model (～ (1/4)°) of the northwest Atlantic. The combination of the semi-prognostic method and the spectral nudging method is used to reduce the model seasonal bias and drift. The child model reproduces the general features of the observed circulation and hydrography over the study region during the study period. The child model results demonstrate that the time-mean circulation in the GSL is affected by the time-mean atmospheric forcing and inflow through the Strait of Belle Isle. The temporal variability in atmospheric forcing affects the outflow through western Cabot Strait, which in turn affects the transport of the Nova Scotian Current and the gulf-wide cyclonic circulation in the GOM. The simulated seasonal variability of salinity in the top 30 m of the GSL-SS-GOM is mainly affected by the equatorward advection of low-salinity waters from the lower St. Lawrence Estuary to the GOM through the Scotian Shelf. The simulated intraseasonal variability of circulation in the GSL is affected by the variability in the estuarine circulation in response to the temporal variability in atmospheric forcing. On the Scotian Shelf, the intraseasonal variability is mainly driven by the variability of wind forcing and mesoscale and nonlinear dynamics over the shelf break and slope region. The interannual variability in the simulated temperature and salinity are spatially coherent in the intermediate waters in the GSL, which is caused partially by the local response to atmospheric variability and partially by variabilities over the southern Newfoundland Shelf that enter the GSL through the eastern Cabot Strait. By comparison, on the Scotian Shelf, the interannual variability of simulated circulation is affected by anomalies produced by the nonlinear dynamics which are advected equatorwards by the shelf break jet.     

Baroclinic dynamics of wind-driven circulation in a stratified bay: A numerical study using models of varying complexity

The baroclinic response of a stratified coastal embayment (Lunenburg Bay of Nova Scotia) to the observed wind forcing is examined using two numerical models. A linear baroclinic model based on the normal mode approach shows skill at reproducing the observed isotherm movements and sub-surface currents during a time of strong stratification in the bay. The linear model also shows that the isotherm movement in Lunenburg Bay is influenced by the wind forcing and propagation of baroclinic Kelvin waves from neighbouring Mahone Bay. The effects of nonlinearity and topography are investigated using a three-dimensional nonlinear coastal circulation model. The nonlinear model results demonstrate that the nonlinear advection terms generate a gyre circulation at the entrance of Lunenburg Bay, and the slope bottom topography at the mouth of the bay strengthens the sub-surface time-mean inflow on the southern side of the bay. A comparison of model-calculated currents in different numerical experiments clearly shows that baroclinicity plays a dominant role in the dynamics of wind-driven circulation in Lunenburg Bay.     

Using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to improve the ocean circulation from a GCM 20<Superscript>th</Superscript> century simulation

Global coupled climate models are generally capable of reproducing the observed trends in the globally averaged atmospheric temperature. However, the global models do not perform as well on regional scales. Here, we present results from a 20-year, high-resolution ocean model experiment for the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. The atmospheric forcing is taken from the final 20 years of a twentieth-century control run with a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model. The ocean model results from the regional ocean model are validated using observations of hydrography from repeat cruises in the Barents Sea. Validation is performed for average quantities and for probability distributions in space and time. The validation results reveal that, though the regional model is forced by a coupled global model that has a noticeable sea ice bias in the Barents Sea, the hydrography and its variability are reproduced with an encouraging quality. We attribute this improvement to the realistic transport of warm, salty waters into the Barents Sea in the regional model. These lateral fluxes in the ocean are severely underestimated by the global model. The added value with the regional model that we have documented here lends hope to advance the quality of oceanic climate change impact studies.     

Using raw regional climate model outputs for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology

General circulation model outputs are rarely used directly for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology, due to their coarse resolution and inherent bias. Bias correction methods are usually applied to correct the statistical deviations of climate model outputs from the observed data. However, the use of bias correction methods for impact studies is often disputable, due to the lack of physical basis and the bias nonstationarity of climate model outputs. With the improvement in model resolution and reliability, it is now possible to investigate the direct use of regional climate model (RCM) outputs for impact studies. This study proposes an approach to use RCM simulations directly for quantifying the hydrological impacts of climate change over North America. With this method, a hydrological model (HSAMI) is specifically calibrated using the RCM simulations at the recent past period. The change in hydrological regimes for a future period (2041–2065) over the reference (1971–1995), simulated using bias‐corrected and nonbias‐corrected simulations, is compared using mean flow, spring high flow, and summer–autumn low flow as indicators. Three RCMs driven by three different general circulation models are used to investigate the uncertainty of hydrological simulations associated with the choice of a bias‐corrected or nonbias‐corrected RCM simulation. The results indicate that the uncertainty envelope is generally watershed and indicator dependent. It is difficult to draw a firm conclusion about whether one method is better than the other. In other words, the bias correction method could bring further uncertainty to future hydrological simulations, in addition to uncertainty related to the choice of a bias correction method. This implies that the nonbias‐corrected results should be provided to end users along with the bias‐corrected ones, along with a detailed explanation of the bias correction procedure. This information would be especially helpful to assist end users in making the most informed decisions.     

Effect of stratification on tidal circulation over the Scotian Shelf and Gulf of St. Lawrence: a numerical study using a three-dimensional shelf circulation model

A three-dimensional shelf circulation model is used to examine the effect of seasonal changes in water-column stratification on the tidal circulation over the Scotian Shelf and Gulf of St. Lawrence. The model is driven by tidal forcing specified at the model’s lateral open boundaries in terms of tidal sea surface elevations and depth-averaged currents for five major tidal constituents (M₂, N₂, S₂, K₁, and O₁). Three numerical experiments are conducted to determine the influence of baroclinic pressure gradients and changes in vertical mixing, both associated with stratification, on the seasonal variation of tidal circulation over the study region. The model is initialized with climatological hydrographic fields and integrated for 16 months in each experiment. Model results from the last 12 months are analyzed to determine the dominant semidiurnal and diurnal tidal components, M₂ and K₁. Model results suggest that the seasonal variation in the water-column stratification affects the M₂ tidal circulation most strongly over the shelf break and over the deep waters off the Scotian Shelf (through the development of baroclinic pressure gradients) and along Northumberland Strait in the Gulf of St. Lawrence (through changes in vertical mixing and bottom stress). For the K₁ constituent, the baroclinic pressure gradient and vertical mixing have opposing effects on the tidal circulation over several areas of the study region, while near the bottom, vertical mixing appears to play only a small role in the tidal circulation.     

Multiple time-scale modelling of the circulation in Torres Strait—Australia

Ocean circulation influences nearly all aspects of the marine ecosystem. This study describes the water circulation patterns on time scales from hours to years across Torres Strait and adjacent gulfs and seas, including the north of the Great Barrier Reef. The tridimensional circulation model incorporated realistic atmospheric and oceanographic forcing, including winds, waves, tides, and large-scale regional circulation taken from global model outputs. Simulations covered a hindcast period of 8 years (i.e. 01/03/1997–31/12/2004), allowing the tidal, seasonal, and interannual flow characteristics to be investigated. Results indicated that the most energetic current patterns in Torres Strait were strongly dominated by the barotropic tide and its spring-neap cycle. However, longer-term flow through the strait was mainly controlled by prevailing winds. A dominant westward drift developed in summer over the southeasterly trade winds season, which then weakened and reversed in winter over the northwesterly monsoon winds season. The seasonal flow through Torres Strait was strongly connected to the circulation in the north of the Great Barrier Reef, but showed little connectivity with the coastal circulation in the Gulf of Papua. Interannual variability in Torres Strait was highest during the monsoon period, reflecting variability in wind forcing including the timing of the monsoon. The characteristics of the circulation were also discussed in relation to fine sediment transport. Turbidity level in Torres Strait is expected to peak at the end of the monsoon, while it is likely to be at a low at the end of the trade season, eventually leading to a critically low bottom light level which constitutes a severe risk of seagrass dieback.     

Multi-site bias correction of climate model outputs for hydro-meteorological impact studies: An application over a watershed in China

Bias correction methods remove systematic differences in the distributional properties of climate model outputs with respect to observations, often as a means of pre-processing model outputs for use in hydrological impact studies. Traditionally, bias correction is applied at each weather station individually, neglecting the dependence that exists between different sites, which could negatively affect simulations from a distributed hydrological model. In this study, three multi-variate bias correction (MBC) methods—initially proposed to correct the inter-variable correlation or multi-variate dependence of climate model outputs—are used to correct biases in distributional properties and spatial dependence at multiple weather stations. To reveal the benefits of correcting spatial dependence, two distribution-based single-site bias correction methods are used for comparison. The effects of multi-site correction on hydro-meteorological extremes are assessed by driving a distributed hydrological model and then evaluating the model performance in terms of several meteorological and hydrological extreme indices. The results show that the multi-site bias correction methods perform well in reducing biases in spatial correlation measures of raw global climate model outputs. In addition, the multi-site methods consistently reproduce watershed-averaged meteorological variables better than single-site methods, especially for extreme values. In terms of representing hydrological extremes, the multi-site methods generally perform better than the single-site methods, although the benefits vary according to the hydrological index. However, when applying the multi-site methods, the original temporal sequence of precipitation occurrence may be altered to some extent. Overall, all multi-site bias correction methods are able to reproduce the spatial correlation of observed meteorological variables over multiple stations, which leads to better hydrological simulations, especially for extremes. This study emphasizes the necessity of considering spatial dependence when applying bias correction to ccc outputs and hydrological impact studies.     

A new barotropic model of the wind-driven circulation

Rationalized by the observational circulation pattern in the upper ocean of the North Pacific, meridional friction term is first incorporated in a barotropic theoretical model of the wind-driven circulation. The governing potential vorticity equation thence has β term and wind stress curl term (the two of the Sverdrup balance), zonal friction term and meridional friction term. The analytical solution satisfactorily captures many important features of the wind-driven circulation in the North Pacific: Kuroshio, Oyashio, Kuroshio extension, North Equatorial Current, and especially the eastern boundary currents in the North Pacific, i.e. California current and Alaska current.     

A model study of tide- and wind-induced mixing in the Columbia River Estuary and plume

A numerical simulation of circulation in the Columbia River estuary and plume during the summer of 2004 is used to explore the mixing involved as river water is transformed into shelf water. The model is forced with realistic river flow, tides, wind stress, surface heat flux, and ocean boundary conditions. Simulated currents and water properties on the shelf near the mouth are compared with records from three moorings (all in 72 m of water) and five CTD sections. The model is found to have reasonable skill; statistically significant correlations between observed and modeled surface currents, temperature, and salinity are all 0.42–0.72 for the mooring records. Equations for the tidally averaged, volume-integrated mechanical energy budget (kinetic and potential) are derived, with attention to the effects of: (i) Reynolds averaging, (ii) a time varying volume due to the free surface, and (iii) dissipation very close to the bottom. It is found that convergence of tidal pressure work is the most important forcing term in the estuary. In the far field plume (which has a volume 15 times greater than that of the estuary), the net forcing is weaker than that in the estuary, and may be due to either tidal currents or wind stress depending on the time period considered. These forcings lead to irreversible mixing of the stratification (buoyancy flux) that turns river water into shelf water. This occurs in both the plume and estuary, but appears to be more efficient (17% vs. 5%), and somewhat greater (4.2 MW vs. 3.3 MW), in plume vs. estuary. This demonstrates the importance of both wind and tidal forcing to watermass transformation, and the need to consider the estuary and plume as part of a single system.     

Effects of spatial wind inhomogeneity and turbulence anisotropy on circulation in an elongated basin: A simplified analytical solution

The response of a closed basin to wind forcing has been studied extensively, but the role of turbulence anisotropy coupled with spatial wind inhomogeneity has never been considered explicitly. An analytical solution is presented for steady state hydrodynamics, considering the central part of a constant-depth, elongated basin with a laterally varying wind, and a homogeneous, yet anisotropic, eddy viscosity tensor. The solution is derived both for a single-layer and for a two-layer basin, which is representative of a stratified lake with a well-developed thermocline. Since the focus is on the short-term barotropic reaction to wind forcing, which determines the type of lake circulation, baroclinic effects are neglected as a first approximation. In this case, the development of planimetric (depth-averaged) circulation superimposed on circulation in the vertical plane can be determined as a function of wind lateral variation and a few dimensionless parameters. The relevance of such an analytical solution is twofold. Firstly, the knowledge of the prevailing circulation can help in the choice of the best type of numerical model (three-dimensional vs. two-dimensional, depth- or lateral-averaged). Secondly, it shows the importance of correct estimates of both vertical and horizontal eddy viscosity, whereas the latter is not usually considered as an important parameter in lake hydrodynamics modeling.     

A simple approach to adjust tidal forcing in fjord models

To model currents in a fjord accurate tidal forcing is of extreme importance. Due to complex topography with narrow and shallow straits, the tides in the innermost parts of a fjord are both shifted in phase and altered in amplitude compared to the tides in the open water outside the fjord. Commonly, coastal tide information extracted from global or regional models is used on the boundary of the fjord model. Since tides vary over short distances in shallower waters close to the coast, the global and regional tidal forcings are usually too coarse to achieve sufficiently accurate tides in fjords. We present a straightforward method to remedy this problem by simply adjusting the tides to fit the observed tides at the entrance of the fjord. To evaluate the method, we present results from the Oslofjord, Norway. A model for the fjord is first run using raw tidal forcing on its open boundary. By comparing modelled and observed time series of water level at a tidal gauge station close to the open boundary of the model, a factor for the amplitude and a shift in phase are computed. The amplitude factor and the phase shift are then applied to produce adjusted tidal forcing at the open boundary. Next, we rerun the fjord model using the adjusted tidal forcing. The results from the two runs are then compared to independent observations inside the fjord in terms of amplitude and phases of the various tidal components, the total tidal water level, and the depth integrated tidal currents. The results show improvements in the modelled tides in both the outer, and more importantly, the inner parts of the fjord.     

A numerical study of the circulation and monthly-to-seasonal variability in the Caribbean Sea: the role of Caribbean eddies

This study examines the circulation and associated monthly-to-seasonal variability in the Caribbean Sea using a regional ocean circulation model. The model domain covers the region between 99.0 and 54.0°W and between 8.0 and 30.3°N, with a horizontal resolution of 1/6°. The ocean circulation model is driven by 6-hourly atmospheric reanalysis data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction and boundary forcing extracted from 5-day global ocean reanalysis data produced by Smith et al. (Mercator Newsletter 36:39–49, 2010), and integrated for 7 years. A comparison of model results with observations demonstrates that the regional ocean circulation model has skill in simulating circulation and associated variability in the study region. Analysis of the model results, as well as a companion model run that uses steady annual mean forcing, illustrates the role of Caribbean eddies for driving monthly-to-seasonal circulation variability in the model. It is found that vertically integrated transport between Nicaragua and Jamaica is influenced by the interaction between the density perturbations associated with Caribbean eddies and the Nicaraguan Ridge. The impact of Caribbean eddies squeezing through the Yucatan Channel is also discussed.     

Lagrangian circulation and forbidden zone on the West Florida Shelf

This paper presents some recent results of drifters released on the West Florida Shelf during 1996–1997 and compares with the numerical model results of the wind-driven circulation. Using satellite tracked surface drifters during the one year period from February 1996 to February 1997, a drifter free region, called the “forbidden zone”, is found over the southern portion of the West Florida Shelf. This finding is consistent with historical drift bottle data and with a recent numerical model study of the West Florida Shelf circulation response to climatological wind forcing. Direct drifter simulations by numerical model during March 1996 show a good agreement with both the in situ ADCP current observation and drifter observation. Three mechanisms are proposed for the observed Lagrangian features. The primarily dynamic mechanism is the along-shore wind forcing, which induces a coastal jet that tends to leave the coast and the bottom onshore and near surface offshore transports. The second one is the convergent coastal geometry and bottom topography for the southward flow in central shelf near Tampa Bay that enforces the coastal jet and the bottom and near surface transport. The last is a kinematic one, simply due to the short along-shore Lagrangian excursion, driven by the typical synoptic weather systems. Thus near surface shelf waters over the north may not reach the southern coast of the West Florida. Implication is that surface hazard such as oil spill that may occur outside of the southern West Florida shelf may not greatly impact the southern coastal region except Florida Keys. However, the biological and chemical patches over the north that may occur in the water column such as red tides still can easily reach the southern coastal region through the subsurface and bottom waters.