Activity of Mount Etna preceding the February 1999 fissure eruption: inferred mechanism from seismological and geochemical data

The February 1999 eruption of Mt. Etna took place through a fissure on the SSE flank of the cone of the summit SE Crater. This event was preceded by continuous activity since 1995, sometimes accompanied by violent outbursts from one or more of the three other summit craters (NE Crater, Voragine or Chasm, and Bocca Nuova), and finally by a series of 20 short-lived eruptions from the SE Crater between September 1998 and January 1999. These phenomena could be accounted for by invoking gradual invasion of a shallow small reservoir by more primitive, basic and gas-rich magma coming from depth. The shallow “chamber” is more likely to be a plexus of dikes, which had developed during the previous years (1995–1997), following variations of the local stress field owing to enhanced magma generation and accumulation at the top of the mantle. Magma injection and mixing is evidenced through geochemistry, whereas the state of stress of the volcanic pile and underlying crust is determined using earthquake distributions and focal mechanisms. The behaviour of the seismic tremor amplitude appears to be a good indicator of the state of unrest of the volcano, although not always directly linked to the relative energy of degassing phenomena.     

What makes flank eruptions? The 2001 Etna eruption and its possible triggering mechanisms

Most flank eruptions within a central stratovolcano are triggered by lateral draining of magma from its central conduit, and only few eruptions appear to be independent of the central conduit. In order to better highlight the dynamics of flank eruptions in a central stratovolcano, we review the eruptive history of Etna over the last 100 years. In particular, we take into consideration the Mount Etna eruption in 2001, which showed both summit activity and a flank eruption interpreted to be independent from the summit system. The eruption started with the emplacement of a ~N-S trending peripheral dike, responsible for the extrusion of 75% of the total volume of the erupted products. The rest of the magma was extruded through the summit conduit system (SE crater), feeding two radial dikes. The distribution of the seismicity and structures related to the propagation of the peripheral dike and volumetric considerations on the erupted magmas exclude a shallow connection between the summit and the peripheral magmatic systems during the eruption. Even though the summit and the peripheral magmatic systems were independent at shallow depths (<3 km b.s.l.), petro-chemical data suggest that a common magma rising from depth fed the two systems. This deep connection resulted in the extrusion of residual magma from the summit system and of new magma from the peripheral system. Gravitational stresses predominate at the surface, controlling the emplacement of the dikes radiating from the summit; conversely, regional tectonics, possibly related to N-S trending structures, remains the most likely factor to have controlled at depth the rise of magma feeding the peripheral eruption.     

Comparison of seismicity declustering methods using a probabilistic measure of clustering

We present a new measure of earthquake clustering and explore its use for comparing the performance of three different declustering methods. The advantage of this new clustering measure over existing techniques is that it can be used for non-Poissonian background seismicity and, in particular, to compare the results of declustering algorithms where different background models are used. We use our approach to study inter-event times between successive earthquakes using earthquake catalog data from Japan and southern California. A measure of the extent of clustering is introduced by comparing the inter-event time distributions of the background seismicity to that of the whole observed seismicity. Theoretical aspects of the clustering measure are then discussed with respect to the Poissonian and Weibull models for the background inter-event time distribution. In the case of a Poissonian background, the obtained clustering measure shows a decrease followed by an increase, defining a V-shaped trend, which can be explained by the presence of short- and long-range correlation in the inter-event time series. Three previously proposed declustering methods (i.e., the methods of Gardner and Knopoff, Reasenberg, and Zhuang et al.) are used to obtain an approximation of the residual “background” inter-event time distribution in order to apply our clustering measure to real seismicity. The clustering measure is then estimated for different values of magnitude cutoffs and time periods, taking into account the completeness of each catalog. Plots of the clustering measure are presented as clustering attenuation curves (CACs), showing how the correlation decreases when inter-event times increase. The CACs demonstrate strong clustering at short inter-event time ranges and weak clustering at long time ranges. When the algorithm of Gardner and Knopoff is used, the CACs show strong correlation with a weak background at the short inter-event time ranges. The fit of the CACs using the Poissonian background model is successful at short and intermediate inter-event time ranges, but deviates at long ranges. The observed deviation shows that the residual catalog obtained after declustering remains non-Poissonian at long time ranges. The apparent background fraction can be estimated directly from the CAC fit. The CACs using the algorithms of Reasenberg and Zhuang et al. show a relatively similar behavior, with a time correlation decreasing more rapidly than the CACs of Gardner and Knopoff for shorter time ranges. This study offers a novel approach for the study of different types of clustering produced as a result of various hypotheses used to account for different backgrounds.     

Chemical variations of magmas at Izu-Oshima volcano,Japan: plagioclase-controlled and differentiated magmas

Systematic analyses of the major-element chemistry of products of several eruptions during syn-and post-caldera stages of Izu-Oshima volcano were compiled. Comparisons of the products of large-scale eruptions in 1338?, 1421? and 1777–1778, of intermediate-scale eruptions in 1950–1951 and 1986, and of small-scale eruptions in 1954, 1964 and 1974 clearly show the existence of two types of magmas. One is “plagioclase-controlled” and the other is “differentiated” magma (multimineral-controlled); i.e. the bulk chemistry of the first magma type is controlled by plagioclase addition or removal, while that of the second type is controlled by fractionation of plagioclase, orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene, and titanomagnetite. Eruptions of Izu-Oshima volcano have occurred at the summit and along the flanks. Summit eruptions tap only plagioclase-controlled magmas, while flank eruptions supply both magma types. It is considered unlikely that both magma types would coexist in the same magma chamber based on the petrology. In the case of the 1986 eruption, the flank magma was isolated sometime in the past from the summit magma chamber or central conduit, and formed small magma pockets, where further differentiation occurred due to relatively rapid cooling. In a period of quiescence prior to the 1986 eruption, new magma was supplied to the summit magma chamber, and the summit eruption began. The dike intrusion or fracturing around the small magma pockets triggered the flank eruption of the differentiated magma. This model can be applied to the large-scale flank eruption in 1338(?) which erupted differentiated magmas. In 1421(?), the flank eruption tapped plagioclase-controlled magma. In this case, the isolated magmas from the summit magma chamber directly penetrated the flank without differentiation.     

Incorporating the eruptive history in a stochastic model for volcanic eruptions

We show how a stochastic version of a general load-and-discharge model for volcanic eruptions can be implemented. The model tracks the history of the volcano through a quantity proportional to stored magma volume. Thus large eruptions can influence the activity rate for a considerable time following, rather than only the next repose as in the time-predictable model. The model can be fitted to data using point-process methods. Applied to flank eruptions of Mount Etna, it exhibits possible long-term quasi-cyclic behavior, and to Mauna Loa, a long-term decrease in activity. An extension to multiple interacting sources is outlined, which may be different eruption styles or locations, or different volcanoes. This can be used to identify an ‘average interaction’ between the sources. We find significant evidence that summit eruptions of Mount Etna are dependent on preceding flank eruptions, with both flank and summit eruptions being triggered by the other type. Fitted to Mauna Loa and Kilauea, the model had a marginally significant relationship between eruptions of Mauna Loa and Kilauea, consistent with the invasion of the latter's plumbing system by magma from the former.     

Summit eruptions of Klyuchevskoi Volcano,Kamchatka in the early 21st century, 2003–2013

This paper is concerned with eruptions, seismicity, and deformation on Klyuchevskoi Volcano during the summit eruptions of 2012–2013, with the condition of the central crater during the eruptions, and with the effect that is exerted by the height of the lava in the crater on the start of the eruptions. The recurrence of eruptions in the North Volcanic Cluster (NVC), Kamchatka showed that all the four volcanoes in the cluster (Klyuchevskoi, Tolbachik, Shiveluch, and Bezymyannyi) become active during definite phases that were identified in the 18.6-year lunar cycle. This relationship of the NVC eruptions to the active phases in the 18.6-year lunar cycle, as well as the relationship to the 11-year solar activity, showed that eruptions can be predicted, yielding long-term estimates of activity for the NVC volcanoes. The short-term prediction of volcanic eruptions requires knowledge of seismicity and deformation that occur during the precursory period and during the occurrence of eruptions. Seismic activity during the summit eruptions of 2003–2013 took place in the depth range 20–25 km during repose periods of the volcano and at depths of 0–5 km in the volcanic edifice during the eruption. One notes an almost complete absence of any earthquakes at great depths during the summit eruptions. Volcanic tremor (VT) was recorded from the time that the eruptions began and continued to occur until the end. Geodetic measurements showed that the center of the magma pressure beneath the volcano during the parasitic and summit eruptions of 1979–1989 moved in the 4–17 km depth range, while during the summit eruptions of 2003–2013 the center moved in the 15–20 km range. These changes in the depth of the center of magma pressure may have been related to evacuation from shallow magma chambers.     

The storage and release of magma on Mount Etna

The eruptive history of Etna during the past 450 years provides data on effusion rates, volumes of magma involved, and the nature of the eruptive conduits. These data are interpreted in terms of a two-part intravolcanic magma reservoir which feeds the flank eruptions through dike-like conduits. The structural framework of the volcano which controls the spatial distribution of eruptive sites is partly inherited from the basement and partly controlled by the central magma column and the surrounding caldera boundary faults. Hydraulic fracturing theory predicts that the central magma column will fail at depths below 1 km if the tensile strength of the conduit rocks is about 100 bars and that a peak fracturing capability will be reached between 1 and 2 km depth. This inference agrees well with the peak of flank eruptive activity at 1.4 km below the summit observed in the data on the loci of eruptions. The average flank-eruption feeding dike is defined and shown to be capable of the observed maximum effusion rates (20–100 m³ s⁻¹) from magmatic pressure differences of 30–150 bars     

Eruptive patterns for the volcano piton de la fournaise, Reunion Island

A study of the historic record of activity of Piton de la Fournaise has revealed a cyclic pattern of eruption involving effusion of oceanite lava from major-flank centers every 20–40 years. Calculated volumes of the recent lava flows and pyroclastic ejecta have established an effusion rate of 3.9 m³ s⁻¹ since 1931 and 6.2 m³ s⁻¹ since 1951. Flank eruptions outside the present caldera define a distribution maximum which is expected to correlate with the depth range of a high-level magma reservoir.A model has been constructed which requires replenishment of a high-level magma chamber at a constant rate and regular eruption from summit and minor-flank centers, acting as “safety valves” to the magma chamber; when the magma chamber reaches its maximum expansion, a major-flank outburst of oceanitic lava occurs.The fact that calculated effusion rates are not consistent with radiometric dates implies an increase in effusion volume with time for the volcano.     

The November 2002 eruption at Piton de la Fournaise volcano,La Réunion Island: ground deformation,seismicity, and pit crater collapse

An eruption on the eastern flank of Piton de la Fournaise volcano started on 16 November, 2002 after 10 months of quiescence. After a relatively constant level of activity during the first 13 days of the eruption, lava discharge, volcanic tremor and seismicity increased from 29 November to 3 December. Lava effusion suddenly ceased on 3 December while shallow earthquakes beneath the Dolomieu summit crater were still recorded at a rate of about one per minute. This unusual activity continued and increased in intensity over the next three weeks, ending with the formation of a pit crater within Dolomieu. Based on ground deformation, measured by rapid-static and continuous GPS and an extensometer, seismic data, and lava effusion patterns, the eruptive period is divided into five stages: 1) slow summit inflation and sporadic seismicity; 2) rapid summit inflation and a short seismic crisis; 3) rapid flank inflation, onset of summit deflation, sporadic seismicity, accompanied by stable effusion; 4) flank inflation, coupled with summit deflation, intense seismicity, and increased lava effusion; and finally 5) little deflation, intense shallow seismicity, and the end of lava effusion. We propose a model in which the pre-intrusive inflation of Stage 1 in the months preceding the eruption was caused by a magma body located near sea level. The magma reservoir was the source of an intrusion rising under the summit during Stage 2. In Stage 3, the magma ponded at a shallow level in the edifice while the lateral injection of a radial dike reached the surface on the eastern flank of the basaltic volcano, causing lava effusion. Pressure decrease in the magmatic plumbing system followed, resulting in upward migration of a collapse front, forming a subterranean column of debris by faulting and stoping. This caused intense shallow seismicity, increase in discharge of lava and volcanic tremor at the lateral vent in Stage 4 and, eventually the formation of a pit crater in Stage 5.     

Types of eruptions of Etna volcano AD 1670–2003: implications for short-term eruptive behaviour

Analysis of the historical records of Etnas eruptive activity for the past three centuries shows that, after the large 1669 eruption, a period of about 60 years of low-level activity followed. Starting from 1727, explosive activity (strombolian, lava fountaining and subplinian) at the summit crater increased exponentially to the present day. Since 1763, the frequency of flank eruptions also increased and this value remained high until 1960; afterward it further increased sharply. In fact, the number of summit and flank eruptions between 1961 and 2003 was four times greater than that of the pre-1960 period. This long-term trend of escalating activity rules out a pattern of cyclic behaviour of the volcano. We propose instead that the 1670–2003 period most likely characterises a single eruptive cycle which began after the large 1669 eruption and which is still continuing.On the basis of the eruptive style, two distinct types of flank eruptions are recognised: Class A and Class B. Class A eruptions are mostly effusive with associated weak strombolian activity; Class B eruptions are characterised by effusive activity accompanied by intense, long-lasting, strombolian and lava fountaining activity that produces copious tephra fallouts, as during the 2001 and 2002–2003 eruptions. Over the past three centuries, seven Class B eruptions have taken place with vents located mainly on the south-eastern flank, indicating that this sector of the volcano is a preferential zone for the intrusion of volatile-rich magma rising from the deeper region of the Etna plumbing system.Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article at Editorial responsibility: M. Carroll     

Prediction of eruption of Hawaiian volcanoes

Prediction of Hawaiian volcanic eruptions depends primarily on the interpretation of records of earthquakes and tumescence of the volcano. Recent work byJ. P. Eaton of the U. S. Geological Survey appears to demonstrate the presence of two distinct groups of earthquakes. One group originates at a depth of 40 to 60 km, within the earth’s mantle, and is thought to mark the zone of origin of the magma. The other group is of shallower origin and results from change of shape and size of the volcanic edifice. Earthquakes of the deep group occur from time to time, often in swarms, between eruptions and are not useful in predicting an outbreak. Those of the shallow group may accompany the swelling and splitting open of the volcano preceding eruption, but they may also accompany shrinking of the volcano and sinking of the mountain top that appears to result from withdrawal of magma beneath the volcano without surface eruption. Determining whether the quakes result from swelling of shrinking of the volcano depends largely on measurements of tilting of the ground surface. If the volcano is in a swollen condition and continues to swell, a large number of earthquakes of shallow origin is highly suggestive, if not definitely indicative, of imminent eruption. The place of origin of the quakes indicates, sometimes very closely, the location of the coming eruption. It is not yet possible, however, to predict the time of outbreak except in a rather general manner. Sometimes it can be predicted within a few days. At times there may be an oscillation of ground tilting directly preceding the eruption, suggesting a pulsation of magmatic pressure at depth, but this is not yet certain. There appears to be some indication that summit eruptions of either Mauna Loa or Kilauea are preceded by a less definite earthquake pattern, and are therefore less readily predictable, than flank eruptions. No cycle of activity of any great value in predicting activity has been recognized in Hawaii. Intervals between eruptions of Mauna Loa have ranged from a few months to more than 9 years, and Kilauea has been even more variable. In the case of Mauna Loa there has been a rough alternation between summit and flank eruptions, but with many exceptions to this general sequence. Astronomical and tidal cycles have been studied in relation to both time of outbreak and strength of eruption, but without demonstration of any very definite relationship. Eruptions have occurred in every month of the year, but there is a slight tendency for them to cluster just before and after solstice, particularly winter solstice.     

Overview of the 1990–1995 eruption at Unzen Volcano

Following 198 years of dormancy, a small phreatic eruption started at the summit of Unzen Volcano (Mt. Fugen) in November 1990. A swarm of volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes had begun below the western flank of the volcano a year before this eruption, and isolated tremor occurred below the summit shortly before it. The focus of VT events had migrated eastward to the summit and became shallower. Following a period of phreatic activity, phreatomagmatic eruptions began in February 1991, became larger with time, and developed into a dacite dome eruption in May 1991 that lasted approximately 4 years. The emergence of the dome followed inflation, demagnetization and a swarm of high-frequency (HF) earthquakes in the crater area. After the dome appeared, activity of the VT earthquakes and the summit HF events was replaced largely by low-frequency (LF) earthquakes. Magma was discharged nearly continuously through the period of dome growth, and the rate decreased roughly with time. The lava dome grew in an unstable form on the shoulder of Mt. Fugen, with repeating partial collapses. The growth was exogenous when the lava effusion rate was high, and endogenous when low. A total of 13 lobes grew as a result of exogenous growth. Vigorous swarms of LF earthquakes occurred just prior to each lobe extrusion. Endogenous growth was accompanied by strong deformation of the crater floor and HF and LF earthquakes. By repeated exogenous and endogenous growth, a large dome was formed over the crater. Pyroclastic flows frequently descended to the northeast, east, and southeast, and their deposits extensively covered the eastern slope and flank of Mt. Fugen. Major pyroclastic flows took place when the lava effusion rate was high. Small vulcanian explosions were limited in the initial stage of dome growth. One of them occurred following collapse of the dome. The total volume of magma erupted was 2.1×10⁸ m³ (dense-rock-equivalent); about a half of this volume remained as a lava dome at the summit (1.2 km long, 0.8 km wide and 230–540 m high). The eruption finished with extrusion of a spine at the endogenous dome top. Several monitoring results convinced us that the eruption had come to an end: the minimal levels of both seismicity and rockfalls, no discharge of magma, the minimal SO₂ flux, and cessation of subsidence of the western flank of the volcano. The dome started slow deformation and cooling after the halt of magma effusion in February 1995.     

Tyatya Volcano, southwestern Kuril arc: Recent eruptive activity inferred from widespread tephra

Abstract Tyatya Volcano, situated in Kunashir Island at the southwestern end of Kuril Islands, is a large composite stratovolcano and one of the most active volcanoes in the Kuril arc. The volcanic edifice can be divided into the old and the young ones, which are composed of rocks of distinct magma types, low‐ and medium‐K series, respectively. The young volcano has a summit caldera with a central cone. Recent eruptions have occurred at the central cone and at the flank vents of the young volcano. We found several distal ash layers at the volcano and identified their ages and sources, that is, tephras of ad 1856, ad 1739, ad 1694 and ca 1 Ka derived from three volcanoes of Hokkaido, Japan, and caad 969 from Baitoushan Volcano of China/North Korea. These could provide good time markers to reveal the eruptive history of the central cone, which had continued intermittently with Strombolian eruptions and lava flow effusions since before 1 Ka. Relatively explosive eruptions have occurred three times at the cone during the past 1000 years. We revealed that, topographically, the youngest lava flows from the cone are covered not by the tephra of ad 1739 but by that of ad 1856. This evidence, together with a report of dense smoke rising from the summit in ad 1812, suggests that the latest major eruption with lava effusion from the central cone occurred in this year. In 1973, after a long period of dormancy, short‐lived phreatomagmatic eruptions began to occur from fissure vents at the northern flank of the young volcano. This was followed by large eruptions of Strombolian to sub‐Plinian types occurring from several craters at the southern flank. The 1973 activity is evaluated as Volcanic Explosivity Index = 4 (approximately 0.2 km³), the largest eruption during the 20th century in the southwestern Kuril arc. The rocks of the central cone are strongly porphyritic basalt and basaltic andesite, whereas the 1973 scoria is aphyric basalt, suggesting that magma feeding systems are definitely different between the summit and flank eruptions.     

Magma supply and storage at Kilauea volcano, Hawaii, 1956–1983

Shallow crustal magma reservoirs beneath the summit of Kilauea Volcano and within its rift zones are linked in such a way that the magma supply to each can be estimated from the rate of ground deformation at the volcano's summit. Our model builds on the well-documented pattern of summit inflation as magma accumulates in a shallow summit reservoir, followed by deflation as magma is discharged to the surface or into the rift zones. Magma supply to the summit reservoir is thus proportional to summit uplift, and supply to the rift zones is proportional to summit subsidence; the average proportionality constant is 0.33 × 10⁶ m³/γrad. This model yields minimum supply estimates because it does not account for magma which escapes detection by moving passively through the summit reservoir or directly into the rift zones.Calculations suggest that magma was supplied to Kilauea during July 1956– April 1983 at a minimum average rate of 7.2 × 10⁶ m3/month. Roughly 35% of the net supply was extruded; the rest remains stored within the volcano's east rift zone (55%) and southwest rift zone (10%). Periods of relatively rapid supply were associated with the large Kapoho eruption in 1960 and the sustained Mauna Ulu eruptions in 1969–1971 and 1972–1974. Bursts of harmonic tremor from the mantle beneath Kilauea were also unusually energetic during 1968–1975, suggesting a close link between Kilauea's deep magma supply region and shallow storage reservoirs. It remains unclear whether pulses in magma supply from depth give rise to corresponding increases in shallow supply, or if instead unloading of a delicately balanced magma transport system during large eruptions or intrusions triggers more rapid ascent from a relatively constant mantle source.     

On the eruptions, deformation, and seismicity of Klyuchevskoy Volcano, Kamchatka in 1986–2005 and the mechanisms of its activity

The eruptions, seismicity, and deformations, the properties of the magma feeding, and the mechanism of the activity of Klyuchevskoy, a giant basaltic volcano in Kamchatka, are considered. Twenty-eight author’s papers on the above subjects, published from 1985 to 2006, are reviewed. The activity of Klyuchevskoy the adventive and summit eruptions of Klyuchevskoy from 1986 to 2005 is described. The seismicity of Klyuchevskoy from 1986 to 2005 and its relation to eruptions are considered. It was inferred from geodetic measurements that the center of the magmatic pressure beneath the volcano moved in the depth range from 3 to 25 km during the period from 1979 to 2005. Based on previously developed models and observations from 1986 to 2005, the main properties of the Klyuchevskoy magma feeding system and the magma ascent in five major parts of the system are described and characterized: near the top of the plunging Pacific plate (with a depth of approximately 160 km), in the asthenosphere (160 to 40 km), in the region of the intermediate magma chamber where the magmas coming from below are accumulated (40 to 20 km), in the crust (20 to 5 km), and in the upper part of the system (from a depth of 5 km under the volcanic edifice to the crater at an altitude of 4.75 km). A comparison between the outputs from the summit and adventive eruptions on Klyuchevskoy as functions of time for the period from 1978 to 2005 shows that the probability of adventive eruptions should increase in the future.     

Ubinas: the evolution of the historically most active volcano in southern Peru

Ubinas volcano has had 23 degassing and ashfall episodes since A.D. 1550, making it the historically most active volcano in southern Peru. Based on fieldwork, on interpretation of aerial photographs and satellite images, and on radiometric ages, the eruptive history of Ubinas is divided into two major periods. Ubinas I (Middle Pleistocene >376 ka) is characterized by lava flow activity that formed the lower part of the edifice. This edifice collapsed and resulted in a debris-avalanche deposit distributed as far as 12 km downstream the Rio Ubinas. Non-welded ignimbrites were erupted subsequently and ponded to a thickness of 150 m as far as 7 km south of the summit. These eruptions probably left a small collapse caldera on the summit of Ubinas I. A 100-m-thick sequence of ash-and-pumice flow deposits followed, filling paleo-valleys 6 km from the summit. Ubinas II, 376 ky to present comprises several stages. The summit cone was built by andesite and dacite flows between 376 and 142 ky. A series of domes grew on the southern flank and the largest one was dated at 250 ky; block-and-ash flow deposits from these domes filled the upper Rio Ubinas valley 10 km to the south. The summit caldera was formed between 25 and 9.7 ky. Ash-flow deposits and two Plinian deposits reflect explosive eruptions of more differentiated magmas. A debris-avalanche deposit (about 1.2 km³) formed hummocks at the base of the 1,000-m-high, fractured and unstable south flank before 3.6 ka. Countless explosive events took place inside the summit caldera during the last 9.7 ky. The last Plinian eruption, dated A.D.1000–1160, produced an andesitic pumice-fall deposit, which achieved a thickness of 25 cm 40 km SE of the summit. Minor eruptions since then show phreatomagmatic characteristics and a wide range in composition (mafic to rhyolitic): the events reported since A.D. 1550 include many degassing episodes, four moderate (VEI 2–3) eruptions, and one VEI 3 eruption in A.D. 1667. Ubinas erupted high-K, calc-alkaline magmas (SiO₂=56 to 71%). Magmatic processes include fractional crystallization and mixing of deeply derived mafic andesites in a shallow magma chamber. Parent magmas have been relatively homogeneous through time but reflect variable conditions of deep-crustal assimilation, as shown in the large variations in Sr/Y and LREE/HREE. Depleted HREE and Y values in some lavas, mostly late mafic rocks, suggest contamination of magmas near the base of the >60-km-thick continental crust. The most recently erupted products (mostly scoria) show a wide range in composition and a trend towards more mafic magmas.Recent eruptions indicate that Ubinas poses a severe threat to at least 5,000 people living in the valley of the Rio Ubinas, and within a 15-km radius of the summit. The threat includes thick tephra falls, phreatomagmatic ejecta, failure of the unstable south flank with subsequent debris avalanches, rain-triggered lahars, and pyroclastic flows. Should Plinian eruptions of the size of the Holocene events recur at Ubinas, tephra fall would affect about one million people living in the Arequipa area 60 km west of the summit.Editorial responsibility: D Dingwell     

A multi-disciplinary study of the 2002–03 Etna eruption: insights into a complex plumbing system

The 2002–03 Mt Etna flank eruption began on 26 October 2002 and finished on 28 January 2003, after three months of continuous explosive activity and discontinuous lava flow output. The eruption involved the opening of eruptive fissures on the NE and S flanks of the volcano, with lava flow output and fire fountaining until 5 November. After this date, the eruption continued exclusively on the S flank, with continuous explosive activity and lava flows active between 13 November and 28 January 2003. Multi-disciplinary data collected during the eruption (petrology, analyses of ash components, gas geochemistry, field surveys, thermal mapping and structural surveys) allowed us to analyse the dynamics of the eruption. The eruption was triggered either by (i) accumulation and eventual ascent of magma from depth or (ii) depressurisation of the edifice due to spreading of the eastern flank of the volcano. The extraordinary explosivity makes the 2002–03 eruption a unique event in the last 300 years, comparable only with La Montagnola 1763 and the 2001 Lower Vents eruptions. A notable feature of the eruption was also the simultaneous effusion of lavas with different composition and emplacement features. Magma erupted from the NE fissure represented the partially degassed magma fraction normally residing within the central conduits and the shallow plumbing system. The magma that erupted from the S fissure was the relatively undegassed, volatile-rich, buoyant fraction which drained the deep feeding system, bypassing the central conduits. This is typical of most Etnean eccentric eruptions. We believe that there is a high probability that Mount Etna has entered a new eruptive phase, with magma being supplied to a deep reservoir independent from the central conduit, that could periodically produce sufficient overpressure to propagate a dyke to the surface and generate further flank eruptions.Editorial responsibility: J. Donnelly-Nolan     

Internal structure of Piton de la Fournaise volcano from seismic wave propagation and earthquake distribution

Arrival times of seismic waves from local earthquakes are inverted for both locating the source and defining the 3-D velocity heterogeneity of Piton de la Fournaise.The lateral heterogeneity of the 2632 m high edifice is resolved as a high-velocity plug, 1.5 km in diameter, surrounded by a low-velocity ring, which may be interpreted as due to the construction of Fournaise on the flank of the older volcano Piton des Neiges. Wave mode conversion detected on three-component seismograms provides evidence for boundaries of contrasted velocities.Pre-eruptive swarm earthquakes cluster in the high-velocity zone, under the Dolomieu summit crater. Low strength and cohesion of the surrounding material account for the lack of seismicity for the final 1–3 km radial flow of magma to the vents in Enclos Fouqué.Beneath the high-velocity plug the existence of a body with low velocity for P, and even for S, waves is well constrained. However, the walls and base are poorly defined because of the lack of deep earthquakes for sampling. The few earthquakes that are located in this depth region usually occur at a depth of around 1.5 km below sea level in the region of the cone. This can be considered providing the upper constraint on the lower limit of the aseismic part of the low-velocity body. The coincidence in time of their occurrence with the swarms above sea level and the eruptions suggests magmatic activation of the low-velocity aseismic volume 1.5 km below sea level under the high-velocity plug of the cone. Further down, the concentration of seismicity in two swarms, between 2 and 4 km, under the eastern flank does not allow the structure to be sampled effectively.     

Simple stochastic modelling of the eruption history of a basaltic volcano: Nyamuragira,Zaire

Three simple models of the behaviour of a series of basaltic eruptions have been tested against the eruptive history of Nyamuragira. The data set contains the repose periods and the volumes of lava emitted in 22 eruptions since 1901. Model 1 is fully stochastic and eruptions of any volume with random repose intervals are possible. Models 2 and 3 are constrained by deterministic limits on the maximum capacity of the magma reservoir and on the lowest drainage level of the reservoir respectively. The method of testing these models involves (1) seeking change points in the time series to determine regimes of uniform magma supply rate, and (2) applying linear regression to these regimes, which for models 2 and 3 are the determinsstic limits to those models. Two change points in the time series for Nyamuragira, in 1958 and 1980, were determined using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov technique. The latter change involved an increase in the magma supply rate by a factor of 2.5, from 0.55 to 1.37 m³s^-1. Model 2 provides the best fit to the behavior of Nyamuragira with the ratio of variation explained by the model to total variation. R², being greater than 0.9 for all three regimes. This fit can be interpreted to mean that there is a determinstic limit to the elastic strength of the magma reservoir 4–8 km below the summit of the volcano.     

Seismic activity related to the 1991 eruption of Colima Volcano,Mexico

Ten years after the last effusive eruption and at least 15 years of seismic quiescence, volcanic seismic activity started at Colima volcano on 14 February 1991, with a seismic crisis which reached counts of more than 100 per day and showed a diversity of earthquake types. Four other distinct seismic crises followed, before a mild effusive eruption in April 1991. The second crisis preceded the extrusion of an andesitic scoriaceous lava lobe, first reported on 1 March; during this crisis an interesting temporary concentration of seismic foci below the crater was observed shortly before the extrusion was detected. The third crisis was constituted by shallow seismicity, featuring possible mild degassing explosion-induced activity in the form of hiccups (episodes of simple wavelets that repeat with diminishing amplitude), and accompanied by increased fumarolic activity. The growth of the new lava dome was accompanied by changing seismicity. On 16 April during the fifth crisis which consisted of some relatively large, shallow, volcanic earthquakes and numerous avalanches of older dome material, part of the newly extruded dome, which had grown towards the edge of the old dome, collapsed, producing the largest avalanches and ash flows. Afterwards, block lava began to flow slowly along the SW flank of the volcano, generating frequent small incandescent avalanches. The seismicity associated with the stages of this eruptive activity shows some interesting features: most earthquake foci were located north of the summit, some of them relatively deep (7–11 km below the summit level), underneath the saddle between the Colima and the older Nevado volcanoes. An apparently seismic quiet region appears between 4 and 7 km below the summit level. In June, harmonic tremors were detected for the first time, but no changes in the eruptive activity could be correlated with them. After June, the seismicity decreasing trend was established, and the effusive activity stopped on September 1991.