Hydrological assessment of proposed reservoirs in the Sonora River Basin,Mexico, under historical and future climate scenarios

Abstract

A semi-distributed hydrological model and reservoir optimization algorithm are used to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on existing and proposed reservoirs in the Sonora River Basin, Mexico. Inter-annual climatic variability, a bimodal precipitation regime and climate change uncertainties present challenges to water resource management in the region. Hydrological assessments are conducted for three meteorological products during a historical period and a future climate change scenario. Historical (1990–2000) and future (2031–2040) projections were derived from a mesoscale model forced with boundary conditions from a general circulation model under a high emissions scenario. The results reveal significantly higher precipitation, reservoir inflows, elevations and releases in the future relative to historical simulations. Furthermore, hydrological seasonality might be altered with a shift toward earlier water supply during the North American monsoon. The proposed infrastructure would have a limited ability to ameliorate future conditions, with more benefits in a tributary with lower flood hazard. These projections of the impacts of climate change and its interaction with infrastructure should be of interest to water resources managers in arid and semi-arid regions.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis     

Dunes of the Gran Desierto Sand-Sea,Sonora, Mexico

The Gran Desierto Sand-Sea contains dunes of crescentic and star form in simple, compound, and complex varieties. The dunes have developed in bimodal to complex wind regimes of intermediate energy. Transitions from simple through compound to complex crescentic dunes are associated with regional changes in wind regimes. Growth of large star dunes takes place by merging of smaller crescentic and reversing dunes from southerly directions and reworking of sand by northerly and westerly winds. Although wind regimes appear to be the major control of dune morphology in this sand-sea, there is a close correlation between the spacing of simple crescentic dunes and the grain size of the coarse 20th percentile.     

Reconnaissance geophysics and geology of the Pinacate craters,Sonora, Mexico

The Pinacate volcanic field of northwest Sonora, Mexico contains eleven tuff-rimmed explosion craters as well as hundreds of cinder cones. A multiphase eruptive and collapse history for each of the craters is evidenced by: cinder cones exposed in cross-section in crater rims, rim-breaking cinder cones, major eccentric vents, erosion hiatuses between tuff deposition, and coalescing craters exhibiting differeng degrees of erosion. Basaltic intrusions occurred along ring fractures and in the center of at least one crater. Magnetic surveys indicate that explosion craters have tuffaceous feeder vents whereas cinder cones have basaltic, highly magnetic plugs. Computer models illustrate that magnetic terrain effects can contribute to anomalies observed associated with craters, and need to be considered where magnetic surveys include irregularities such as rims or peaks.     

A model for attenuation and scattering in the Earth's crust

The mechanisms contributing to the attenuation of earthquake ground motion in the distance range of 10 to 200 km are studied with the aid of laboratory data, coda wavesRg attenuation, strong motion attenuation measurements in the northeast United States and Canada, and theoretical models. The frequency range 1–10 Hz has been studied. The relative contributions to attenuation of anelasticity of crustal rocks (constantQ), fluid flow and scattering are evaluated. Scattering is found to be strong with an albedoB ₀=0.8–0.9 and a scattering extinction length of 17–32 km. The albedo is defined as the ratio of the total extinction length to the scattering extinction length. TheRg results indicate thatQ increases with depth in the upper kilometer or two of the crust, at least in New England. CodaQ appears to be equivalent to intrinsic (anelastic)Q and indicates that thisQ increases with frequency asQ=Q _o f ⁿ , wheren is in the range of 0.2–0.9. The intrinsic attenuation in the crust can be explained by a high constantQ (500Q _o2000) and a frequency dependent mechanism most likely due to fluid effects in rocks and cracks. A fluid-flow attenuation model gives a frequency dependence (QQ _o f ^0.5) similar to those determined from the analysis of coda waves of regional seismograms.Q is low near the surface and high in the body of the crust.     

日本上地壳S波衰减成像

地球介质的衰减特性可以从地震波中的频谱信息中获取,并且能够提供地球内部结构非均匀性的重要信息.与大量的速度结构研究相比,对衰减结构的研究却较少,且大多仅对日本群岛局部地区做研究.本文运用ML振幅层析成像技术反演获得了整个日本群岛上地壳的品质因子Q0值（1 Hz时的Q值）.计算中共利用了日本Hi-net台网971个台站记录到的5559个地震事件,超过60000 条Sg波最大振幅-频率数据,并且满足震中距小于2°、震源深度小于10 km.计算结果表明,低Q0值区域主要存在于日本群岛的中央火山带,与日本新生代以来的火山分布非常一致;同时,位于从神户到京都东北地区、以及四国岛东部等地的非火山区,断层密集,对应的Q0值也很低;另外,西太平洋俯冲海沟与日本群岛东海岸之间的区域也是低Q0值区,这说明高温、岩石强烈破碎、深厚的沉积物是造成地震波强烈衰减的主要原因.高Q0值主要分布在中央火山带前缘与日本东海岸之间.     

Chemical geothermometers applied to the study of thermalized aquifers in Guaymas, Sonora, Mexico: a case history

The efforts to satisfy the increasing groundwater needs of the Guaymas Valley area encountered problems to site new wells due to several factors: the saline intrusion from the sea and the production of highly mineralized hot water by some exploration wells. In order to determine the chemical characteristics of the groundwater and their temperature, it was planned to use the chemical analyses of samples from wells and springs for the classification of the waters and calculation of chemical geothermometers. Direct measurement of the temperature gradient was used to infer the depth of equilibration of the temperatures obtained with the geothermometers: the measured temperatures extrapolated to 200 m agree with the temperatures obtained with the K/Mg geothermometer; also the location of the high-temperature anomalies coincide for the three geothermometers used, this may indicate that an equilibrium stage is reached in the sampled aquifers. The results of the chemical and temperature studies were compared with the geological and geophysical data; it was observed that the temperature anomalies in the center of the valley are related to the gravity anomalies and to the main fault planes. As a result of this work, it was possible to define the areas that should be avoided when siting the new wells.     

Characteristics of seismic wave attenuation in the crust and upper mantle of the Northern Caucasus

The quality factor Q as a function of frequency in an S wave range of 1–8 Hz is estimated from records of ～60 earthquakes (M _w > 3.9 and source depths of 1–60 km) obtained at the Sochi seismic station at epicentral distances of less than ～300 km. Methods of Q estimation used in the paper were developed in works by Aki, Rautian, and others; they are based on the suppression of source-related and local effects in S wave spectra with the help of coda waves measured at a fixed time from the first arrival. To compensate for directivity effects, averaging was performed over the set of events whose sources were located in a wide range of back azimuths. The geometric divergence is represented as a three-segment function: 1/R, 1, and 1/√R at epicentral distances of 1/50–1/70 to 50–70 km, 50–70 to 130–150 km, and greater than 130–150 km, respectively. The geometric divergences in this model yielded the following estimates of the quality factor: Q(f) ～ 80f ^0.9 with a base of 35–280 km and Q(f) ～ 110f ^0.8 with a base of 60–280 km. The resulting combinations of the propagation path effects (Q and the geometric divergence) can be used for predicting strong motion parameters in the Northern Caucasus.     

Strombolian and effusive activity as precursors to phreatomagmatism: eruptive sequence at maars of the Pinacate volcanic field, Sonora, Mexico

The Pinacate volcanic field, Sonora, Mexico, contains 400 cinder cones and eight maars. It is noteworthy that most of the maar-forming, phreatomagmatic eruptions were immediately preceded by effusive and Strombolian activity rather than occurring when magma first approached the surface. The Strombolian activity may have facilitated access of groundwater to the conduits in this arid region. The field evidence suggests that phreatomagmatism is inhibited unless the magma flux is low relative to the rate of water supply and unless the top of the magma column has subsided, probably below the water table. The latter condition is difficult to prove in the absence of direct observation, and alternative hypotheses involving disturbance of the conduit system are considered. The spatial distribution of maars in the Pinacate and the lithology of their associated tuffaceous ejecta both may reflect the course of an ancient river channel whose permeable gravels were pierced by the magmatic conduits.     

Body wave attenuation characteristics in the crust of Alborz region and North Central Iran

Attenuation of P and S waves has been investigated in Alborz and north central part of Iran using the data recorded by two permanent and one temporary networks during October 20, 2009, to December 22, 2010. The dataset consists of 14,000 waveforms from 380 local earthquakes (2 < M _L < 5.6). The extended coda normalization method (CNM) was used to estimate quality factor of P (Q _P) and S waves (Q _S) at seven frequency bands (0.375, 0.75, 1.5, 3, 6, 12, 24 Hz). The Q _P and Q _S values have been estimated at lapse times from 40 to 100 s. It has been observed that the estimated values of Q _P and Q _S are time independent; therefore, the mean values of Q _P and Q _S at different lapse times have been considered. The frequency dependence of quality factor was determined by using a power-law relationship. The frequency-dependent relationship for Q _P was estimated in the form of (62 ± 7)f ^{(1.03 ± 0.07)} and (48 ± 5)f ^{(0.95 ± 0.07)} in Alborz region and North Central Iran, respectively. These relations for Q _S for Alborz region and North Central Iran have estimated as (83 ± 8)f ^{(0.99 ± 0.07)} and (68 ± 5)f ^{(0.96 ± 0.05)}, respectively. The observed low Q values could be the results of thermoelastic effects and/or existing fracture. The estimated frequency-dependent relationships are comparable with tectonically active regions.     

张掖盆地壳内电性结构研究

张掖盆地处于青藏高原东北缘,探究该区域的构造活动对于研究青藏高原向东北方向碰撞挤压机制具有重要意义.此次布设3条北东向宽频大地电磁剖面,基于实测数据,通过Bahr分解、相位张量分析和共轭阻抗变换的方法进行了偏离度分析和电性主轴分析;通过NLCG二维反演,获得了沿剖面的电性结构模型.结合研究区地质与地球物理资料进行分析,结果表明:电性结构模型在横向上呈现出分块特点,榆木山和龙首山隆起区对应高阻,走廊过渡带整体表现为低阻;走廊过渡带中存在一壳内低阻层,表现为壳内滑脱;祁连地块中上地壳整体表现为高阻,下地壳电阻率相对较低,以推覆拓展样式延伸至河西走廊地区;阿拉善地块呈"低阻舌状体"俯冲于河西走廊下部,整体形态呈南浅北深.     

A plate tectonic hypothesis for the genesis of porphyry copper deposits of the southern Basin and Range Province

The ages and distribution of porphyry copper deposits of the southern Basin and Range Province suggest an origin influenced by a mantle hot spot as this part of the North American plate moved N35–40°W at 3.57 ± 0.65 cm/yr during the interval of the Laramide Orogeny 72 to 52 my ago. This motion coupled with that of the hot spot interpretation of the Corner Seamounts region of the North Atlantic during the same time interval suggests that the North American plate rotated clockwise at an average rate of 0.35 degrees per million years. The apparent pole of rotation is located near 50°N latitude and 64°W longitude in the region of Anticosti Island in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. The apparent diameter of the hot spot is 450 km. Northwesterly motion and clockwise rotation of the North American plate are compatible with existing concepts of plate tectonics, paleomagnetism, and paleoclimatology. The development of early Tertiary blankets of supergene enrichment and their partial destruction during the late Tertiary can be explained by a change from a warm and wet climate during the early Tertiary to a cooler and drier climate during the late Tertiary as this part of the North American plate moved northwesterly from a more tropical climate into a more temperate and arid zone. Orographic rain shadows produced by middle and late Tertiary mountain building in southern California were undoubtedly influencial in enhancing late Tertiary aridity.     

三峡库区上地壳S波衰减成像研究

利用三峡数字地震台网2009年1月—2015年2月记录的1300多次M_L>1.5小震事件6000多条射线的S波数据, 利用S波衰减层析成像技术获得了三峡库区秭归—巴东段上地壳Q_S成像分布图． 结果显示, 三峡库区上地壳Q_S值存在明显的横向不均匀性, 沿水库近岸区主要为Q_S高值区, 外围NE, NW, SW和SE 等4个方向上均存在Q_S低值异常区, 这是由于这些异常区位于不同地层转换带, 岩层较易破碎, 易于库水渗流所致． 在巫山—秭归段剖面上, 本文Q_S成像结果与人工地震测深剖面上基底至上地壳底部之间岩层的Q值变化形态基本一致, 前者均值比后者低, 反映了上地壳深部介质对地震波衰减特性的影响． 2013年巴东M_S5.1震群活动和2014年秭归M_S4.5, M_S4.7震群活动均分布在Q_S高值与低值过渡区, 这种区域的地下介质位于“软”、 “硬”转换带上, 岩层易破碎, 应力和能量易集聚, Q值易受水的渗透引起变化, 从而降低发震断层抗剪切强度而诱发地震．      

Location of zones of anomalously high s-wave attenuation in the upper crust near ruapehu and ngauruhoe volcanoes, New Zealand

Many earthquakes within the crust near Ruapehu and Ngauruhoe volcanoes, recorded at epicentral distances less than 20 km on vertical seismometers, show S-waves of lower dominant frequency than the P-waves. A large number also have amplitudes in the S-group less than those of the P-waves. Whereas the reduced amplitude of S-waves relative to that of P-waves can be a source mechanism effect, the corresponding reduction in dominant frequency should be independent of the source radiation pattern. The most plausible reason for such a reduction in dominant S-wave frequency is that the waves have passed through a zone of partially molten rock. The data are therefore interpreted in terms of the presence of magma in restricted zones near the volcanoes.Using ray paths from 232 hypocentres to three permanent seismograph stations, together with paths from three additional earthquakes to one permanent and two temporary stations, an interpretation in three dimensions has been made of the source of the anomalous attenuation at depths between 2 and 10 km below datum (Ruapehu Crater Lake). Wave paths which lie largely at depths shallower than 2 km cannot be used, as almost all such paths show evidence of enhanced S-wave attenuation, and this is attributed to the presence of superficial pyroclastic and unconsolidated laharic material within 2 km of the surface.At Ruapehu, the data suggest the presence of three principal intrusions, one underlying much of the southwest slopes and reaching as far east as Crater Lake, one beneath the eastern side of the Summit Plateau, and one beneath part of the northeast slopes of the volcano. All three are essentially vertical or steeply dipping structures, detectable to a depth of between 7 and 9 km. The first appears to extend to within about 5 km of the surface, whereas the other two have intruded to within 2 or 3 km. Other, less well-defined, and comparatively small bodies exist beneath both the western and eastern slopes of Ruapehu.In the Ngauruhoe area, few earthquakes have occurred and all have been at depths less than 6 km. Therefore, only shallow attenuating areas can be defined. A small area of anomalous S-wave attenuation occurs beneath the northwest slopes of Ngauruhoe, and another, elongated, body appears to coincide with a fault zone west of the volcano. Both of these lie at depths of about 3 km below datum (less than 2 km below surface in one locality).Finally, areas of high attenuation, at depths of 4–5 km below datum, appear to define a narrow east-west zone about 6 km long in the immediate area of Whakapapa village. Other zones exist east of the volcanic axis, defining a line which cuts the axis on the north east slopes of Ruapehu, at a point where a parasite crater formed a few thousand years ago.     

Volcanic Markers of the Post-Subduction Evolution of Baja California and Sonora, Mexico: Slab Tearing Versus Lithospheric Rupture of the Gulf of California

The study of the geochemical compositions and K-Ar or Ar-Ar ages of ca. 350 Neogene and Quaternary lavas from Baja California, the Gulf of California and Sonora allows us to discuss the nature of their mantle or crustal sources, the conditions of their melting and the tectonic regime prevailing during their genesis and emplacement. Nine petrographic/geochemical groups are distinguished: ??regular?? calc-alkaline lavas; adakites; magnesian andesites and related basalts and basaltic andesites; niobium-enriched basalts; alkali basalts and trachybasalts; oceanic (MORB-type) basalts; tholeiitic/transitional basalts and basaltic andesites; peralkaline rhyolites (comendites); and icelandites. We show that the spatial and temporal distribution of these lava types provides constraints on their sources and the geodynamic setting controlling their partial melting. Three successive stages are distinguished. Between 23 and 13 Ma, calc-alkaline lavas linked to the subduction of the Pacific-Farallon plate formed the Comondú and central coast of the Sonora volcanic arc. In the extensional domain of western Sonora, lithospheric mantle-derived tholeiitic to transitional basalts and basaltic andesites were emplaced within the southern extension of the Basin and Range province. The end of the Farallon subduction was marked by the emplacement of much more complex Middle to Late Miocene volcanic associations, between 13 and 7 Ma. Calc-alkaline activity became sporadic and was replaced by unusual post-subduction magma types including adakites, niobium-enriched basalts, magnesian andesites, comendites and icelandites. The spatial and temporal distribution of these lavas is consistent with the development of a slab tear, evolving into a 200-km-wide slab window sub-parallel to the trench, and extending from the Pacific coast of Baja California to coastal Sonora. Tholeiitic, transitional and alkali basalts of subslab origin ascended through this window, and adakites derived from the partial melting of its upper lip, relatively close to the trench. Calc-alkaline lavas, magnesian andesites and niobium-enriched basalts formed from hydrous melting of the supraslab mantle triggered by the uprise of hot Pacific asthenosphere through the window. During the Plio-Quaternary, the ??no-slab?? regime following the sinking of the old part of the Farallon plate within the deep mantle allowed the emplacement of alkali and tholeiitic/transitional basalts of deep asthenospheric origin in Baja California and Sonora. The lithospheric rupture connected with the opening of the Gulf of California generated a high thermal regime associated to asthenospheric uprise and emplaced Quaternary depleted MORB-type tholeiites. This thermal regime also induced partial melting of the thinned lithospheric mantle of the Gulf area, generating calc-alkaline lavas as well as adakites derived from slivers of oceanic crust incorporated within this mantle.     

胶东地区地壳S波衰减系数和台站场地响应的研究

根据山东数字地震台网7个地震台的118条波形资料,采用Atkinson方法（1992）,研究了胶东地区的非弹性衰减系数;采用Moya方法（2000）,研究了各台的场地响应。得到胶东地区非弹性衰减Q值随频率,的关系为Q（f）=249×f^0.596;得到的7个台站的场地响应均没有显示出明显的放大效应,这与胶东地区台站均处于岩石地基相符。     

Collective action for water harvesting irrigation in the Lerma-Chapala Basin,Mexico

Water and watersheds are difficult to separate for management purposes. Providing irrigation as a supplement to rainfall for crop production requires considerable collective action at the watershed level to mobilize labor and other resources, as well as to make decisions and implement the distribution of benefits. Small-scale water harvesting irrigation systems in Mexico have endured for centuries. They now face considerable challenges with changes in the ejido property rights over land and water, the growing importance of alternative sources of livelihoods, and increasing scarcity and competition for water within the river basins.     

Concentrations of heavy metals in sediment and organisms during a harmful algal bloom (HAB) at Kun Kaak Bay, Sonora, Mexico

In early April 2003, fishermen from Kino Bay Sonora alerted us about a massive die-off of fish and mollusks occurring at Kun Kaak Bay. Phytoplankton samples taken on 17 May 2003 reported the presence of a harmful algal bloom composed of Chatonella marina, Chatonella cf. ovata, Gymnodinium catenatum and Gymnodinium sanguineum. On 22 of May, we collected samples of water, sediment and organisms at the affected area. Physicochemical parameters and nutrients were measured in water samples from different depths. Sediment and benthic organisms were analyzed for Cd, Cu, Zn, Pb and Hg. We found concentrations of heavy metals higher than background levels for this area. Cadmium and Lead concentrations in sediment from the HAB area were up to 6x greater than background levels and Cd in mollusks was 8x greater than regulations allow. A relationship between elevated Cd and Pb concentrations in sediment and the survival of toxic dinoflagellates is suspected.     

海拉尔盆地中-上地壳电性结构特征研究

本文通过对横穿海拉尔盆地的一条长约222km的北西—南东向大地电磁测深剖面数据的定性分析及二维定量反演解释,首次获得了海拉尔盆地高精度大范围的电性结构图.海拉尔盆地中-上地壳电性结构纵向上具有典型的分层特性,总体可分为四层,即低阻层-高阻层-低阻层-高阻层,而横向上又具有分块特点.海拉尔盆地边缘及内部分布的众多断裂将盆地划分为隆起与坳陷相间的格局,并发现盆地内部坳陷区也存在有小规模凸起,每一构造单元内部电性结构各具特点.海拉尔盆地中-上地壳低阻层底面最深达28km,通常在6~16km之间,但厚度变化不大,在4~10km之间,且隆起区与坳陷区底面埋深差别较大.据电性结构模型推测出两条新断裂F8和F9,且断裂F9规模较大,为基底断裂.中-上地壳的低阻层可能在一定程度上控制着海拉尔盆地内油气田的分布格局.