A multi-dimensional assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa

In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub-Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional, attitudinal and asset factors influencing urban vulnerability. Multiple methods were applied to cover the full range of vulnerabilities and to identify potential response strategies, including: model-based forecasts, spatial analyses, document studies, interviews and stakeholder workshops. We demonstrate the potential of the approach to assessing several dimensions of vulnerability and illustrate the complexity of urban vulnerability at different scales: households (e.g., lacking assets); communities (e.g., situated in low-lying areas, lacking urban services and green areas); and entire cities (e.g., facing encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential for strategic coordination and action. To better adapt to urban flooding and thereby reduce vulnerability and build resilience, we suggest working across dimensions and scales, integrating climate change issues in city-level plans and strategies and enabling local actions to initiate a ‘learning-by-doing’ process of adaptation.

     

A multi-dimensional assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa

In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub-Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional, attitudinal and asset factors influencing urban vulnerability. Multiple methods were applied to cover the full range of vulnerabilities and to identify potential response strategies, including: model-based forecasts, spatial analyses, document studies, interviews and stakeholder workshops. We demonstrate the potential of the approach to assessing several dimensions of vulnerability and illustrate the complexity of urban vulnerability at different scales: households (e.g., lacking assets); communities (e.g., situated in low-lying areas, lacking urban services and green areas); and entire cities (e.g., facing encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential for strategic coordination and action. To better adapt to urban flooding and thereby reduce vulnerability and build resilience, we suggest working across dimensions and scales, integrating climate change issues in city-level plans and strategies and enabling local actions to initiate a ‘learning-by-doing’ process of adaptation.     

考虑地下水入侵导致土壤强度变化的沿海建筑地基韧性模型

海平面上升导致的地下水入侵沿海地区的建筑地基造成显著风险。提出了一个考虑地下水侵入导致土壤强度退化的沿海建筑地基韧性模型。该模型由地基的性能函数在服役期内的积分得到。考虑条形基础的韧性,其极限承载力由Terzaghi公式描述。韧性模型考虑气候变化背景下地下水位的上升对土壤强度的影响。通过一个算例,展示了所提出的韧性模型的适用性。结果表明,如果不考虑气候变化影响下地下水位的上升,则会得到不保守的结构韧性评估结果。结构全寿命周期内的韧性也取决于所采用的维护措施（即,修复受损的结构性能）。未来的研究中,还应考虑其他因素（如锈蚀）对沿海建筑地基性能退化的联合影响。     

Climate change and groundwater resources in China

Water resources play an important role in supporting the economic and social development of China. The impact of climate change on water resources has become a bottleneck in this process, especially for major projects, with surface water and groundwater systems experiencing considerable impacts. The annual natural recharge of fresh groundwater is 8 840×10~8 m~3, which accounts for approximately 31% of the water resources. Groundwater is the most significant water source for many cities and energy bases, and it is also the main source acting as a buffer against extreme climate events caused by climate change. However, most of the groundwater in China buried deeply and unevenly, which increases the difficulty of investigating and exploiting this resource.This paper illustrates the general conditions of China water resources and hydrogeological hazards, such as karst sinkholes, surface subsidence, and soil salinization, caused by climate change, El Nino, La Nina, other climate events and human activities and presents the regulatory measures enacted to mitigate these issues in China.The China Geological Survey(CGS) has organized professional teams to investigate and evaluate groundwater resources and the environment since 1999. Based on these investigations, the total quantity, expected exploitable quantity and current exploited quantity of groundwater in whole China have been evaluated. In addition, an evaluation of the groundwater pollution caused by climate change throughout China and key areas has been conducted. At present, the CGS is conducting national groundwater monitoring projects and establishing regional engineering and technical measures for water resource exploitation and utilization.     

Aquifer system incremental linear property and its application on groundwater management

Generally, an aquifer system coupled into a groundwater management model was regarded as a linear system. However, in terms of systems analysis, the aquifer system can be proven to be an incremental linear system rather than a linear system. For example, a confined aquifer system can be decomposed into two parts, one of which is a linear time invariability sub-system and another is a zero-input response. This system does not meet the additivity property of linear system, but satisfies the incremental linear system characteristics. In order to better understand, a case study of water resources management of Huaibei city within semiarid region, north Anhui province of China, is cited. Taking into account the water demand for satisfying the urban development in the next 15 years, three planning target years of water resources are preset as the present (2005), the short term (2010) and the long term (2020), respectively, and four hydrological years (e.g., wet year, mean year, dry year, and extremely dry year) are also defined by the rainfall data of many years. A groundwater management model based on linear programming is established. This model can deal with 12 possible scenarios (3 target years × 4 hydrological years), optimize the strategies of water resources development, integrate various kinds of water sources (e.g., groundwater, surface–water and additional water) and meet the water demand for the urban development of Huaibei city. In accordance with the groundwater management model solutions, the problem of groundwater drawdown funnels (groundwater overextraction funnels) which formed within the Huaibei downtown area for many years and led to some environmental and social issues will be solved over the whole planning period. More importantly, through statistically analyzing the model solutions, the relationships between the groundwater pumping (input signals) and groundwater level recovery (output signals) show up the characteristics of the incremental linear system.     

Juggling through Ghanaian urbanisation: flood hazard mapping of Kumasi

More recently, driven by rapid and unguided urbanisation and climate change, Ghanaian cities are increasingly becoming hotspots for severe flood-related events. This paper reviews urbanisation dynamics in Ghanaian cities, and maps flood hazard zones and access to flood relief services in Kumasi, drawing insight from multi-criteria analysis and spatial network analysis using ArcGIS 10.2. Findings indicate that flood hazard zones in Kumasi have been created by natural (e.g., climate change) and anthropogenic (e.g., urbanisation) factors, and the interaction thereof. While one would have expected the natural factors to guide, direct and steer the patterns of urban development from flood hazard zones, the GIS analysis shows that anthropogenic factors, particularly urbanisation, are increasingly concentrating population and physical structures in areas liable to flooding in the urban environment. This situation is compounded by rapid land cover/use changes and widespread haphazard development across the city. Regrettably, findings show that urban residents living in flood hazard zones in Kumasi are also geographically disadvantaged in terms of access to emergency services compared to those living in well-planned neighbourhoods.     

Review: Progress in permafrost hydrogeology in China

Groundwater in China’s permafrost region is vital for humans and cold-climate ecosystems. Permafrost responses to global warming have significantly changed the spatio-temporal patterns and distribution of properties associated with the groundwater system. The main areas of current and past studies on permafrost hydrogeology in China include four aspects: groundwater distribution and dynamics in permafrost regions, interplay between groundwater and permafrost, the impact of permafrost degradation on groundwater, and the regional effect of groundwater changes on the environment in permafrost regions. Over the last 10 years, the development and use of coupled heat-transport and groundwater models have focused on the hydrogeology of permafrost, and on groundwater development and distribution in permafrost regions. Progress in groundwater-related research on issues surrounding permafrost regions of China are comprehensively summarized and discussed in this review paper, which should provide a theoretical basis for further study of the groundwater system and its effects on the ecological environment under climate change.     

Alleviating drought and water scarcity in the Mediterranean region through managed aquifer recharge

Drought and water scarcity can significantly impair the sustainable development of groundwater resources, a scenario commonly found in aquifers in the Mediterranean region. Water management measures to address these drivers of groundwater depletion are highly relevant, especially considering the increasing severity of droughts under climate change. This study evaluates the potential of managed aquifer recharge (MAR) to offset the adverse effects of drought and water scarcity on groundwater storage. Los Arenales aquifer (central Spain), which was unsustainably exploited for irrigation in the second half of the twentieth century, is employed as a case study. Two neighbouring zones within this aquifer are contrasted, namely, Los Arenales (LA) and Medina del Campo (MC). The primary difference between them in terms of water resources management is the wide-scale implementation of MAR systems in LA since the early 2000s. Several groundwater statistical methods are used. Groundwater-level trend analysis and average piezometric levels show in LA a faster recovery of aquifer storage and less susceptibility to drought compared to MC. On the other hand, standardised precipitation indexes and standardised groundwater level indexes of detrended groundwater-level time series, which do not include the effects of MAR, show that LA can be more negatively affected by drought and groundwater abstraction. The sharper recovery of piezometric levels in LA when considering MAR, and bigger drought impacts observed when the effects of this measure are removed, demonstrate that MAR can effectively alleviate the impacts of water scarcity and drought, providing an adaptation solution to climate change worldwide.

     

Climate change and groundwater resources in Mekong Delta,Vietnam

Groundwater resources have considerable influences on the human population and socioeconomic development of Vietnam and the Mekong River Delta (MRD). This paper presents an overview of the relationship between climate change and groundwater in the MRD, including the challenges, strategies and technical measures. Our results showed that groundwater levels are related to other climate and hydrological variables (i.e., rainfall, river levels, etc.); therefore, the impacts of climate change on the groundwater resources of the Mekong delta are significant, especially on groundwater recharge. Based on the results of this study, it is recommended that groundwater development in the future should focus on reducing groundwater harvesting, enhancing groundwater quantity by establishing artificial works and exploiting surface water. This study suggests that the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model is an effective tool for forecasting groundwater levels in periods of 1 month and 3 months for aquifers in the natural and tidal regime areas of the delta.     

Age and origin of groundwater resources in the Ararat Valley,Armenia: a baseline study applying hydrogeochemistry and environmental tracers

Within the Ararat Valley (Armenia), a continuously growing water demand (for irrigation and fish farming) and a simultaneous decline in groundwater recharge (due to climate change) result in increasing stress on the local groundwater resources. This detrimental development is reflected by groundwater-level drops and an associated reduction of the area with artesian conditions in the valley centre. This situation calls for increasing efforts aimed at more sustainable water resources management. The aim of this baseline study was the collection of data that allows for study on the origin and age distribution of the Ararat Valley groundwater based on environmental tracers, namely stable (δ²H, δ¹⁸O) and radioactive (³⁵S, ³H) isotopes, as well as physical-chemical indicators. The results show that the Ararat Valley receives modern recharge, despite its (semi-)arid climate. While subannual groundwater residence times could be disproved (³⁵S), the detected ³H pattern suggests groundwater ages of several decades, with the oldest waters being recharged around 60 years ago. The differing groundwater ages are reflected by varying scatter of stable isotope and hydrochemical signatures. The presence of young groundwater (i.e., younger that the 1970s), some containing nitrate, indicates groundwater vulnerability and underscores the importance of increased efforts to achieve sustainable management of this natural resource. Since stable isotope signatures indicate the recharge areas to be located in the mountains surrounding the valley, these efforts must not be limited to the central part of the valley where most of the abstraction wells are located.

     

矿业城市矿产资源可持续力比较评价

从发展和循环经济的观点看, 由于科技进步的贡献, 矿产资源不仅取决于现今已发现的矿产资源, 还依赖于未来新的和潜在的矿产资源以及替代资源.基于此, 提出“矿产资源可持续力”新概念, 以表征其对人类社会发展的贡献能力.以系统论与可持续发展理论为基石, 建立了“矿产资源可持续力”概念模型及其指标体系, 以及区际间矿产资源可持续力的六因子评价模型, 对中国50座典型矿业城市进行了比较评价, 指出其可持续力演变规律为: 从矿业类型来看, 可持续力沿着石油、综合、冶金、煤炭类逐渐劣化; 从城市发展阶段来看, 沿着中、幼、老年顺序依次下降; 从城市地理分布来看, 沿着东、西、中部逐渐下降; 从城市规模来看, 按照小型、大型及以上、中型城市顺序依次下降.为国家开发矿业城市和矿业城市可持续发展提供了科学的决策依据.      

Climate change and groundwater conditions in the Mekong Region–A review

Changes in the climatic system introduce uncertainties in the supply and management of water resources. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) predicts an increase of 2 to 4 °C over the next 100 years. Temperature increases will impact the hydrologic cycle by directly increasing the evaporation of surface water sources. Consequently, changes in precipitation will indirectly impact the flux and storage of water in surface and subsurface reservoirs(i.e., lakes, soil moisture, groundwater, etc.). In addition, increases in temperature contribute to increases in the sea level, which may lead to sea water intrusions, water quality deterioration, potable water shortages, etc. Climate change has direct impacts on the surface water and the control of storage in rivers, lakes and reservoirs, which indirectly controls the groundwater recharge process. The main and direct impact of climate change on groundwater is changes in the volume and distribution of groundwater recharge. The impact of climate change on groundwater resources requires reliable forecasting of changes in the major climatic variables and accurate estimations of groundwater recharge. A number of Global Climate Models(GCMs) are available for understanding climate and projecting climate change.These GCMs can be downscaled to a basin scale, and when they are coupled with relevant hydrological models, the output of these coupled models can be used to quantify the groundwater recharge, which will facilitate the adoption of appropriate adaptation strategies under the impact of climate change.     

Multivariate statistical analysis of the groundwater flow in shallow aquifers: a case of the basins of northern Algeria

Water resources in Algeria are mainly controlled by climate change which creates enormous problems in its planning, management and distribution. While the surface water resources are perfectly managed and operated by means of dams and small dams built for several years, the groundwater resources remain long unknown and unusable because of the lack of relevant working tools (e.g., methods, formulas, maps, etc.) for planners and engineers working in the field of water resources exploration. To highlight the hydrodynamic processes of groundwater in shallow aquifers of the basins of northern Algeria, we conducted a study using 81 subwatersheds collected from different locations at the basins; taking into account the climatic and geomorphological factors, to understand water usage trends, analyse patterns, tap good shallow aquifers and ensure long lasting supplies of water through arid periods, mapping and modelling of groundwater are fundamental to problem resolution. Multivariate statistical techniques as well as cluster and principal component analysis were applied to the data on groundwater flow, with the objective of defining the main controls on the groundwater flows at the basins. These statistical techniques showed the presence of three groundwater flow groups with increasing importance according to precipitation. The first group was mainly influenced by climatic factors, the second was more controlled by the communication between the surface and underground flows and the third group revealed the influence of geomorphological factors on groundwater flows.     

天长市地下水资源开发利用研究

天长市紧邻我国东部沿海和“长三角”经济发达地区,是安徽省经济最发达的县（市）之一,工业化发展迅速,对水资源的需求与日俱增。本文通过对天长市地下水资源分布规律的研究,指明了优质地下水资源的分布范围;结合地下水资源的开采利用现状和可能产生的地质环境问题,分析了未来该市水资源的利用趋势,是城区以利用地表水为主、广大乡（镇）村仍然以开采利用地下水为主的供水模式;提出了针对未来可能扩大地下水资源利用时应当采取的措施。     

Climate finance governance in hazard prone riverine islands in Bangladesh: pathway for promoting climate resilience

Bangladesh is one of the topmost climate vulnerable countries in the world where the riverine island (char) dwellers are the most victims of climate change. Climate finance is perceived as the key instruments to address the issues related to climate change impacts and improve the livelihood resilience of the rural people. This article examines the role of climate finance governance at the vulnerable hazard-prone chars in Bangladesh. Climate finance adaptation governance has been assessed through measuring the climate service intervention, behavioral changes and impacts at the local level. The study reveals that the mechanism of climate finance in Bangladesh is good enough, but implementation is not satisfactory. It also observed that there is a lack of participatory governance for disaster management, and there is no direct contribution of climate finance governance in the village level which causes to fail the existing implementation strategy. The study suggests that a riverine island-based long-term development program should be implemented through ensuring effective monitoring system so that climate finance governance can contribute a lot and improve the food security and livelihood resilience of char dwellers.

     

华北平原气候时空演变特征

地下水是华北平原主要的供水水源,大气降水入渗补给又是该区地下水的主要补给,因此研究气候时空演变特征对于深入剖析气候变化对其地下水资源的影响具有重要意义。依据中国18个地面气候站1951-2011年逐日气候观测资料,剖析华北平原气候时空演变特征。结果表明:华北平原近60年最低气温显著升高,最高气温基本稳定,平均气温明显升高;空间上呈由西南向东北逐渐降低、由沿海向内陆增高的趋势。降水量总体呈逐渐减少趋势,空间上由山前向滨海逐渐减弱后增强;对比分析典型极端丰枯水年的降水分布特征,不同降水年空间分布差异显著。水面蒸发量整体呈下降趋势,空间上南、北部大于中部。华北平原气候总体向暖干化方向发展,两次突变主要发生在20世纪60年代中期和70年代初。气候变化和人类活动是影响地下水资源的两个重要因素,极端气候则加强了对地下水的影响。因此,定量区分气候变化与人类活动对地下水的影响是有待进一步深入探讨的问题。     

Sustainable groundwater development in the coastal Tra Vinh province in Vietnam under saltwater intrusion and climate change

Three-dimensional transient groundwater flow and saltwater transport models were constructed to assess the impacts of groundwater abstraction and climate change on the coastal aquifer of Tra Vinh province (Vietnam). The groundwater flow model was calibrated with groundwater levels (2007–2016) measured in 13 observation wells. The saltwater transport model was compared with the spatial distribution of total dissolved solids. Model performance was evaluated by comparing observed and simulated groundwater levels. The projected rainfalls from two climate models (MIROC5 and CRISO Mk3.6) were subsequently used to simulate possible effects of climate changes. The simulation revealed that groundwater is currently depleted due to overabstraction. Towards the future, groundwater storage will continue to be depleted with the current abstraction regime, further worsening in the north due to saltwater intrusion from inland trapped saltwater and on the coast due to seawater intrusion. Notwithstanding, the impact from climate change may be limited, with the computed groundwater recharge from the two climate models revealing no significant change from 2017 to 2066. Three feasible mitigation scenarios were analyzed: (1) reduced groundwater abstraction by 25, 35 and 50%, (2) increased groundwater recharge by 1.5 and 2 times in the sand dunes through managed aquifer recharge (reduced abstraction will stop groundwater-level decline, while increased recharge will restore depleted storage), and (3) combining 50% abstraction reduction and 1.5 times recharge increase in sand dune areas. The results show that combined interventions of reducing abstraction and increasing recharge are necessary for sustainable groundwater resources development in Tra Vinh province.

     

鲁南经济带地质环境脆弱性评价

鲁南经济带内矿产资源及地下水资源非常丰富,长期大量开采引发的环境地质问题主要有采空塌陷、岩溶塌陷、地面沉降、地下水降落漏斗及海水入侵等。选取地形地貌、岩土体特征、水文地质条件、环境工程地质问题、地质资源和人类工程经济活动等17个评价因子,利用傅勒三角形法确定各评价因子的权重,采用专家聚类法评价地质环境脆弱性。选取重点城市所在评价单元的土壤环境质量(T)、工程地质环境(G)、地质灾害危险性(Z)和地质环境承载力(C)等4个评价因子,采用栅格叠图法对重点城市适宜性进行了评价。评价结果显示,全区可划分为地质环境脆弱性极高区、高区、中等区和低区共4个区,菏泽市、临沂市处于地质环境脆弱性高区,济宁市、枣庄市及日照市位于地质环境脆弱性中等区。地质环境适宜性综合评价显示5个重点城市均为基本适宜,其中枣庄市西城区为适宜。     

Current water uses,related risks,and management options for Seoul megacity,Korea

Megacities worldwide face various challenging tasks associated with expanding populations and land exploitations; these include securing water supplies, appropriate operating of wastewater treatment/disposal, and the mitigation of natural hazards triggered by anthropogenic activities. Seoul megacity, Korea, where over ten million people populate, is not an exception to the issues. In this study, we examine water resources, their uses, and issues associated with them, specifically climate change, urban flooding, underground water seepage, and land subsidence in Seoul. The changing climate of this city manifests itself in a sharp escalation in air temperature. Increased torrential rainfall causes repeated human casualties from urban floodings, which are exacerbated by expanding impervious surface. The increasingly large interannual variability in precipitation makes it more difficult to take proper actions to secure water supplies. Despite a large annual budget being devoted to producing tap water from the Han River, only about 5% of the population drinks the tap water. Underground transport routes (subway lines) and high storied buildings with deep foundations produce high volumes of underground water seepage, and most of the valuable water resources are dumped without being reused. Underground water seepage also triggers a decline in groundwater levels and elevates the possibility of land subsidence. Recent increases in land subsidence and road sinks in the city are mostly related to old sewer lines and heavy underground work. In this study, we discuss options toward supporting sustainable urban water management in Seoul.     

中国西北水资源的脆弱性

The vulnerability of water resources in Northwest China were described in terms of the sensitivity and adaptability of water resource systems effected by climate change and human activities. Most measures that reduce the vulnerability are closely linked with decreasing the sensitivity of climate change or human activity. In other words, the interaction of climate factors and human activity may either exacerbate or mitigate the vulnerability of water resources. Studying both positive and negative events in terms of sustainable utilization of water resources in the past, may establish the sound strategic base in regulating further human activity. The knowledge and correct awareness of recent and future tendencies of hydro-climatic condition may serve as an imperative scientific base for taking such actions as: 1) undertaking structural and non-structural (e.g., policy, law, and forecasting) measures in a reasonable way; 2) coordinating and allocating both differences of time and space between inflow water and water use and between water yield area and water assumption area as well.