Earthquake recurrence of a particular type

The recurrence relation for Turkish earthquakes, expressed as the single-frequency versus magnitude dependence, exhibits significant maxima and minima, reflecting true physical conditions. Various mathematical formulations are developed to fit the observed data for the single or the cumulative frequency and are compared with each other as regards their accuracy and simplicity. The results may be applicable to regions with high seismicity.     

雅江6级地震预测问题的思考

概述了2001年2月在四川省雅江县与康定县间发生的M_S 5. 0和6. 0地震的基本参数和震源机制,分析了震前区域地震活动特征和中短期观测异常现象,并对雅江6级地震的短临预测问题进行了思考。     

关于应力触发和应力影概念在地震预报中应用的一些思考

应力触发和应力影概念及其在地震预报中的应用,是学术界关注的热点,尚有一系列需要研究的问题。例如初始应力场的确定,合理流变模型的选取和计算,孔隙压力的变化和影响,断层强度随时间的变化等。特别在估计应力场变化时,人们现今只注意到大地震对应力场造成的变化。一些新的观测事实表明,大量的小地震效应,慢地震的效应和无震滑动的效应,也不容忽视。定量考虑它们的效应,是今后应力触发和应力影研究中应该注意的课题。     

一次地震预测的案例

2001年11月14日昆仑山8.1级地震后, 川滇地区的震情引起了地震学者的普遍关注。 文中详细阐述了针对当时川滇地区的多种地震与地震前兆观测项的观测异常形成的综合预测意见及预测三要素的判定, 并探讨了8.1级地震对这一预测意见的影响及对经验性地震预报的认识。     

Large aftershocks triggering by Coulomb failure stress following the 2001 M_S=8.1 great Kunlun earthquake

IntroductionItisshowedbyresearchesonearthquakestresstriggeringrecentlythatsmall'static'stresschangesduetopermanentfaultdisplacementcanalterthelikelihoodof,ortrigger,earthquakesonnearbyfaults(Harris,1998).Manystudiesoftriggeringinthenear-field,particularlyofaftershocks,showthesestaticchangesaretriggeringagent(Kilb,etal,2000).ReasenbergandSimpson(1992)studiedthere-sponseofregionalseismicitytothestaticstresschangeproducedbyLomaPrietaearthquake,andtheresultsshowedthataftershockratesincreasedinre…     

区域优势构造面和余震节面库仑应力变化相关性与地震预测意义.

根据2001年昆仑山口西8.1级地震震源机制,计算了主震破裂在区域优势直立走滑构造面上引起的库仑应力变化,发现3级以上余震大部分分布在库仑应力变化为正的区段,与应力的正相关性为56%——71%;5级余震与应力的正相关性达到60%——80%．5级余震节面上库仑应力变化的正相关性为60%——80%,其效果与优势构造面具有等价性．表明应用库仑应力函数方法分析区域优势构造面应力变化,可能是判断未来地震活动发生地点的一条有效途径．其物理机制可能源于地壳应变主体单元中区域应变能与单元中包含的不同尺度断层面上应力分布的正相关性．亦即主破裂造成沿区域优势构造产生应力的不均匀分布,应力的非均匀性引起区域应变能的非均匀分布,在应变能升高的区段,某些次生断裂面应力随之升高,从而引发余震活动．     

一次地震预报有效性的"概率统计"评价法--中短期前兆及预报效能评价之二

该提出了评价一次地震预报有效性的概率统计法(套圈模型)。设预报4维空间中一个有限封闭的范围,实际地震落人其范围内即为“报准”,否则为“未报准”。在报准的情况下,预报区间的大小就反映预报水平的高低。这可用预报区域内地震发生的自然概率P来衡量。与“打靶模型”相似,“套圈模型”评价上限是准理想预报尺度,下限是可容忍误差尺度。根据不同的尺度,计算相应的概率。以相应概率对数值之差为比例计算评价值。实际算例表明,此方法与距准误差评价结果相当吻合。     

Predicting earthquakes by analyzing accelerating precursory seismic activity

During 11 sequences of earthquakes that in retrospect can be classed as foreshocks, the accelerating rate at which seismic moment is released follows, at least in part, a simple equation. This equation (1) is ,where is the cumulative sum until time,t, of the square roots of seismic moments of individual foreshocks computed from reported magnitudes;C andn are constants; andt _fis a limiting time at which the rate of seismic moment accumulation becomes infinite. The possible time of a major foreshock or main shock,t _f,is found by the best fit of equation (1), or its integral, to step-like plots of versus time using successive estimates oft _fin linearized regressions until the maximum coefficient of determination,r ²,is obtained. Analyzed examples include sequences preceding earthquakes at Cremasta, Greece, 2/5/66; Haicheng, China 2/4/75; Oaxaca, Mexico, 11/29/78; Petatlan, Mexico, 3/14/79; and Central Chile, 3/3/85. In 29 estimates of main-shock time, made as the sequences developed, the errors in 20 were less than one-half and in 9 less than one tenth the time remaining between the time of the last data used and the main shock. Some precursory sequences, or parts of them, yield no solution. Two sequences appear to include in their first parts the aftershocks of a previous event; plots using the integral of equation (1) show that the sequences are easily separable into aftershock and foreshock segments. Synthetic seismic sequences of shocks at equal time intervals were constructed to follow equation (1), using four values ofn. In each series the resulting distributions of magnitudes closely follow the linear Gutenberg-Richter relation logN=a–bM, and the productn timesb for each series is the same constant. In various forms and for decades, equation (1) has been used successfully to predict failure times of stressed metals and ceramics, landslides in soil and rock slopes, and volcanic eruptions. Results of more recent experiments and theoretical studies on crack propagation, fault mechanics, and acoustic emission can be closely reproduced by equation (1). Rate-process theory and continuum damage mechanics offer leads toward understanding the physical processes.     

On citation rates in earthquake engineering

The data on citations of 51 academics in earthquake engineering are analyzed to estimate their relative standing within the category of engineering, as used by HighlyCited.com of the Thomson Institute for Scientific Information. HighlyCited.com publishes names of up to 250 of the world's most cited researchers in each of 21 categories including life sciences, medicine, physical sciences, engineering and medical sciences. At present, there are no earthquake engineers in their category of engineering. In terms of an approximate metric used in this paper, citation threshold for engineering academics who work in related fields of mechanics and finite elements, and who are included in HiglyCited.com list, is about 6000 total citations. The most cited earthquake engineers in our sample have about half that many citations. It appears that the absence of earthquake engineers from the engineering category of HighlyCited.com is mainly the consequence of 2 facts, that (1) near 80% of journal papers in civil engineering are not cited within 5 years after publication, and (2) that the cohort of earthquake engineers is very small relative to the membership of all other engineering disciplines combined.     

前震研究进展综述

介绍了当前国内外前震研究领域的一些进展。 对比了不同前震定义条件下前震序列的共性特征, 对几种主要的前震机理及主要的前震识别方法进行了简要综述, 对其特点及存在的问题进行了评述和讨论。 前震指主震之前在主震断层面上、 紧邻主震破裂起始点发生的小地震。 主震发生之前的一系列前震活动构成前震序列。 在不同的前震定义条件下, 具有“直接前震”的震例比例从10%至40%不等。 理论上前震可用级联应力触发或预滑动模型进行解释。 前震空间上主要集中分布在距离主震10~75 km范围内, 但其时间分布形式复杂, 大多发生在主震前1~2天, 部分前震序列的地震活动率显示明显的加速特征, 但许多前震序列单独来看却往往显示主-余型序列的衰减特征。 序列地震震源机制一致、 序列b值偏低是前震序列最突出的特征。 前震的发生与主震破裂形式和构造环境似有一定关系, 在有限的前震震例中, 逆冲型主震似乎具有相对较多的前震。 部分震例的研究结果显示, 随主震的临近, 前震震源深度有逐渐下迁的特点。 到目前为止, 震前很难判定一次地震或一个地震序列是否为前震或前震序列, 所使用的前震识别主要有基于统计类比的方法、 基于震源机制一致及衍生的相关方法以及基于对地震成核过程精细检测的方法。 从现有不多的震例研究结果来看, 尽管地震时空丛集和震源机制高度一致是前震序列的最显著特征, 但却不是判定前震序列的充分条件。 由于成核的破裂扩展速度和滑动位移有随时间较快增大的趋势, 因而基于对地震成核过程精细检测的方法有望在前震识别中发挥更为重要的作用, 但需更多震例进行验证。     

我国地震监测预报研究的主要科学进展

回顾和总结了1966年邢台地震以来我国地震监测预报研究的主要科学进展,并将其归纳为建立了4个方面的基础,即: 地震预测预报的多学科观测基础;获取了一批中强以上乃至大地震资料的震例基础;建立了经验性预测方法和判据的经验预报基础;初步探索了地震孕育发生的地震预报理论基础。文中还阐述了我国20世纪90年代在长期预报、中期预报、短临预报的预报效能。     

地震预测的构造物理模型研究

在系统收集和分析中国大陆的活动构造、地震活动和地球物理场资料的基础上，初步圈定出769个构造物理潜在震源，并对其中477个位于主要强震区、带内的潜在震源进行了空间几何定量描述和基本震源参数的系统分析，在GIS平台上开发了分析系统，逐一计算了每一潜在震源的十年发震概率，圈定了1999～2008年的强震危险区，根据发震概率的大小对危险区的危险性进行分类。近几年发生的强震与预测结果的对比检验结果表明，用构造物理模型确定的十年地震危险区具有较好的预测效果。     

震源参数因素对玉树地震库仑破裂应力图像及其与余震活动统计关系的影响

2010年4月14日青海省玉树发生MS7.1强震, 根据国内外3个机构公布的5套玉树地震震源参数,计算了玉树地震产生的库仑破裂应力变化,研究了震源参数的差异对库仑破裂应力变化及其与余震活动关系的影响． 结果表明,由于不同来源震源参数存在差异,计算得到的库仑破裂应力变化图像也存在不同程度差异,从而影响库仑破裂应力变化与余震活动的关系．在震源断层参数中,断层滑动角和位错量的影响大于其它参数．此外还发现对余震统计时间的长短也会影响库仑破裂应力变化与余震活动关系的统计结果．      

再论MDCB地震监测仪的映震效果

分析了 Ｍ Ｄ Ｃ Ｂ 型地震监测仪在廊坊连续４２ 个月观测期间, 所记录的类地应力值、８ 方位异常值和异常频度等１４ 种电磁波地震前兆异常参数的动态趋势、方向性反映、临震变化与一定范围内一定强度地震的对应关系, 并得出了电磁波前兆异常参数与地震数量关系的初步结果。     

Spectral analysis of earthquake migration in South America

Earthquake migration along linear seismic belts is investigated by analyzing spacetime diagrams using spectral analysis. In order to sample the earthquakes in the space-time domain, they must first be convolved with a (sinx sint)/xt surface to obtain an unbiased and alias free twodimensional Fourier spectrum. Further enhancements are provided by selectively stacking patterns (a pattern is defined as the distribution of earthquakes in space and time before a particular earthquake), thereby reinforcing the similarities within the various patterns. With these techniques, it is possible to quantitatively estimate the migration rates (from theirspatial frequencies) and recurrence intervals (from theirtemporal frequencies) of large earthquakes in South America.Preliminary examination of the spectra for South America indicates that a low frequency peak occurs at approximately 2500 km and 27 years for earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 7.7. The results suggest a migration rate of approximately 95 km/yr from south to north and a recurrence interval of 27 years.     

Foreshocks and aftershocks of the M W = 7.1, 1992, earthquake in the Atrato region, Colombia

We study the October 18, M _W = 7.1, 1992 Atrato earthquake, and its foreshocks and aftershocks, which occurred in the Atrato valley, northwestern Colombia. The main shock was preceded by several foreshocksof which the M _W = 6.6, October 17 earthquacke was the largest. Inparticular, we examine foreshocks and aftershocks performing joint-hypocenter relocations using high quality Pn and Sn wave readingsfrom permanent regional networks. We observed a few hours prior to the main shock a sudden increase of foreshocks. Maybe this could be used as a predictor since foreshocks have been known for other major events in the region. Our locations align for 90 km with a trend of 5^° ±4^° in agreement with the Harvard CMT solution showing the faultplane trending 9^° to be the plane of rupture. In relation to theepicenter of the main shock, maximum intensities were located to thesouth, consistent with a rupture that traveled from north to south witha larger energy release in the south as suggested by an empirical Green'sfunction study (Li and Toksöz, 1993; Ammon et al., 1994). The boundarybetween the Panama and North Andes blocks has been placed close to thePanama-Colombia border as either a sharp boundary or a diffuse zone. TheAtrato earthquake, however, shows that the plate boundary between thePanama and North Andes microblocks is a diffuse deformation zone. Thiszone has a width of at least 2^° stretching from 78^°W to 76^°W. Quantification of earthquake moment release (during the past30 years) in this zone shows a similar amount of moment release in thewestern and eastern parts of this zone.     

地震前兆观测异常信号识别的困难与局限性

地震前兆观测异常信号识别是前兆研究的基础,但是前兆现象的识别始终存有较大争议,从前兆观测系统,环境影响因素,观测量自身物理规律,前兆特征和数据处理方法等方面分析了前兆识别中存在的客观困难和局限性,文中提出了一些观点,希冀通过对存在问题的客观认识,寻求在当前认识水平和条件下地震前兆研究的途径。     

地震现场震情监视预报工作的回顾及展望

回顾了我国 30多年来的地震现场震情监视预报工作。该工作从目标角度考虑大致可分为二个不同的阶段, 1980年前主要是地震预报方法的探索, 而 1980年以后,更主要的是承担地震预报的社会服务。对我国赴国外地震现场的工作情况作了概述, 并提出了地震现场震情监视预报工作的可能前景。     

基于时间相依地震活动性模型的地震时间序列模拟

模拟地震时间序列在地震危险性分析和地震灾害预测等领域中具有重要作用,地震活动性模型是模拟地震序列的重要理论基础.本文以时间相依地震活动性模型为理论模型,系统梳理了现有时间相依地震活动性模型理论与方法,研究了断层（震源）上最新地震发生时间已知、未知以及地震历史开放间隔已知三种情况下地震发生概率的计算方法,分析了地震复发间隔的变异系数对时间相依地震发生概率的影响.研究了基于布朗模型的特征地震准周期发生的物理原理,建立了时间相依地震时间序列的模拟方法.研究结果表明,在地震离逝时间较长的情况下,基于时间相依地震活动性模型计算的地震发生概率要显著大于泊松模型;在地震历史开放时间已知情况下,计算的地震发生概率要高于地震离逝时间未知的情况.地震复发间隔的变异系数越小,模拟的地震时间序列越呈现周期性.本文研究结果可提高长期地震概率预测水平,模拟的具有时间相依特征的地震时间序列可用于地震预测、概率地震危险性分析以及地震灾害预测等领域.

     

Seismicity gap near Oaxaca,southern Mexico as a probable precursor to a large earthquake

Summary An area of significant seismic quiescence is found near Oaxaca, southern Mexico. The anomalous area may be the site of a future large earthquake as many cases so far reported were. This conjecture is justified by study of past seismicity changes in the Oaxaca region. An interval of reduced seismicity, followed by a renewal of activity, preceded both the recent large events of 1965 and 1968. Those past earthquakes have ruptured the eastern and western portions of the present seismicity gap, respectively, so that the central part remaining is considered to be of the highest risk of the pending earthquake.The most probable estimates are: 7 1/2±1/4 for the magnitude and =16.5°±0.5°N, =96.5°±0.5W for the epicenter location. A firm prediction of the occurrence time is not attempted. However, a resumption of seismic activity in the Oaxaca region may precede a main shock.On leave from the Marine Science Institute, University of Texas, USA.