Detectability of Summer Dryness Caused by Greenhouse Warming

This study investigates the temporal and spatial variation of soil moisture associated with global warming as simulated by long-term integrations of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model conducted earlier. Starting from year 1765, integrations of the coupled model for 300 years were performed for three scenarios: increasing greenhouse gases only, increasing sulfate-aerosol loading only and the combination of both radiative forcings. The integration with the combined radiative forcings reproduces approximately the observed increases of global mean surface air temperature during the 20th century. Analysis of this integration indicates that both summer dryness and winter wetness occur in middle-to-high latitudes of North America and southern Europe. These features were identified in earlier studies. However, in the southern part of North America where the percentage reduction of soil moisture during summer is quite large, soil moisture is decreased for nearly the entire annual cycle in response to greenhouse warming. A similar observation applies to other semi-arid regions in subtropical to middle latitudes such as central Asia and the area surrounding the Mediterranean Sea. On the other hand, annual mean runoff is greatly increased in high latitudes because of increased poleward transport of moisture in the warmer model atmosphere. An analysis of the central North American and southern European regions indicates that the time when the change of soil moisture exceeds one standard deviation about the control integration occurs considerably later than that of surface air temperature for a given experiment because the ratio of forced change to natural variability is much smaller for soil moisture compared with temperature. The corresponding lag time for runoff change is even greater than that of either precipitation or soil moisture for the same reason. Also according to the above criterion, the inclusion of the effect of sulfate aerosols in the greenhouse warming experiment delays the noticeable change of soil moisture by several decades. It appears that observed surface air temperature is a better indicator of greenhouse warming than hydrologic quantities such as precipitation, runoff and soil moisture. Therefore, we are unlikely to notice definitive CO₂-induced continental summer dryness until several decades into the 21st century.     

Annual and seasonal climate and climatic changes in the Canadian prairies simulated by the CCC GCM

Abstract

As part of a study on the effects of climatic variability and change on the sustainability of agriculture in Alberto, the modelling performance of the second‐generation Canadian Climate Centre GCM (general circulation model) is examined. For the region in general, the simulation of 1 × CO₂ mean temperature is generally better than that for mean precipitation, and summer is the season best modelled for each variable. At the scale of individual grid squares, DJF (December, January, February) (temperature) and JJA (June, July, August) (precipitation) are the seasons best modelled. The GCM‐simulated increases in mean annual temperature resulting from a doubling of CO₂ are of the order of 5 to 6°C in the Prairie region, with much of this increase resulting from substantial warming in the winter and spring. Increases in mean annual precipitation are of the order of 50 to 150 mm (changes of +5 to +15%), with the greatest changes again occurring in winter and spring. As far as the limited GCM run durations allow, temperature and precipitation variance generally show no significant changes from a 1 × CO₂ to a 2 × CO₂ climate. Increased precipitation in winter and spring does not result in greater snow accumulations owing to the magnitude of warming; and significant decreases in soil moisture content occur in summer and fall. The resulting effects on the growing season and moisture regime have the potential to affect agricultural practices in the area.     

Summer dryness due to an increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration

To investigate the hydrologic changes of climate in response to an increase of CO₂-concentration in the atmosphere, the results from numerical experiments with three climate models are analyzed and compared with each other. All three models consist of an atmospheric general circulation model and a simple mixed layer ocean with a horizontally uniform heat capacity. The first model has a limited computational domain and simple geography with a flat land surface. The second model has a global computational domain with realistic geography. The third model is identical to the second model except that it has a higher computational resolution. In each numerical experiment, the CO₂-induced change of climate is evaluated based upon a comparison between the two climates of a model with normal and four times the normal concentration of carbon dioxide in air. It is noted that the zonal mean value of soil moisture in summer reduces significantly in two separate zones of middle and high latitudes in response to the increase of the CO₂-concentration in air. This CO₂-induced summer dryness results not only from the earlier ending of the snowmelt season, but also from the earlier occurrence of the spring to summer reduction in rainfall rate. The former effect is particularly important in high latitudes, whereas the latter effect becomes important in middle latitudes. Other statistically significant changes include large increases in both soil moisture and runoff rate in high latitudes of a model during most of the annual cycle with the exception of the summer season. The penetration of moisture-rich, warm air into high latitudes is responsible for these increases.     

Correlations of Climate and Streamflow in Three Minnesota Streams

Correlations between four climate parameters and streamflow in three Minnesota streams were investigated. Runoff values measured over periods of up to 37 years were correlated with precipitation, air temperature, wind, and dew point temperature. The overall objective was to examine if relationships can be obtained which require only readily available input parameters without calibration. Such relationships would be of great use, e.g. to compute future lake water budgets without recourse to more detailed and complex hydrologic runoff models. Monthly, seasonal, and annual time frames were investigated. A seasonal time frame using 3 month averages gave the closest fit for the linear regressions without time lag. Although the watershed sizes varied from 360 to 49,600 square kilometers, the 3 month period seemed sufficiently long to average long term hydrologic processes such as infiltration, evaporation, and groundwater flow. An equation was found for each season (3 months) for each of the rivers. Winter (December, January, February) regressions required only precipitation data; spring regressions required air temperature and precipitation; summer and fall regressions were found with precipitation, air temperature, dew point temperature, and wind speed. The coefficients in the regression equations were related to the watershed characteristics. The r² values were highest for the Zumbro River in spring (0.69) and lowest for the Baptism River in winter (0.14). Root mean square error values ranged from 2.8 mm/mo for the Mississippi River in winter to 18 mm/mo for the Baptism River in spring. The coefficients of variability (CV) ranged from 0.24 to 0.52. Overall the results were disappointing but not all bad. Climate parameters without watershed parameters can characterize runoff only within limits. To project possible future runoff averages the GISS GCM-values for the 2 × CO₂ climate scenario were applied to the seasonal runoff regression equations. The projections were that the spring runoff values would decrease by up to 35% while in the other seasons streamflows would increase by up to 50%. Annual runoff would not change significantly enough to be predictable. The results were in the range of changes predicted by other investigations using very different techniques. Since predictions were based on equations found with past records, it was implied that the land cover would remain unchanged in the 2 × CO₂ environment. This may be unrealistic and needs further investigation.     

Simulation of climate change over Europe using a global variable resolution general circulation model

 This study presents results from a downscaling simulation of the impact of a doubling of CO₂ concentration. A multidecadal coupled simulation of a 1% per year increase of CO₂ concentration with the Hadley Centre ocean-atmosphere model provides its sea-surface temperatures and deep soil climatological temperatures as a boundary condition to two 10-year integrations with a version of the ARPEGE-IFS atmosphere model. This global spectral model has a horizontal resolution varying between 60 km in the Mediterranean Sea and 700 km in the southern Pacific. The global impact as well as the regional impact over Europe in this time slice are examined and compared with results from other studies. Over Europe, our main focus, the model impact consists of a warming of about 2 ^°C, relatively uniform and with little seasonal dependence. There are precipitation increases of about 10% over the northern part in winter and spring, and 30% over the southern part in winter only. Precipitation decreases by 20% in the southern part in autumn. The day-to-day variability of the precipitation increases, except over the southern area in summer. No strong impact is found on the soil moisture. Budgets of physical fluxes are examined at the top of the atmosphere and at the land-atmosphere interface. Received: 26 February 1997/Accepted: 21 October 1997     

A Projection of the Effects of the Climate Change Induced by Increased CO2 on Extreme Hydrologic Events in the Western U.S.

The effects of increased atmospheric CO₂ on the frequency of extreme hydrologic events in the Western United States (WUS) for the 10-yr period of 2040–2049 are examined using dynamically downscaled regional climate change signals. For assessing the changes in the occurrence of hydrologic extremes, downscaled climate change signals in daily precipitation and runoff that are likely to indicate the occurrence of extreme events are examined. Downscaled climate change signals in the selected indicators suggest that the global warming induced by increased CO₂ is likely to increase extreme hydrologic events in the WUS. The indicators for heavy precipitation events show largest increases in the mountainous regions of the northern California Coastal Range and the Sierra Nevada. Increased cold season precipitation and increased rainfall-portion of precipitation at the expense of snowfall in the projected warmer climate result in large increases in high runoff events in the Sierra Nevada river basins that are already prone to cold season flooding in todays climate. The projected changes in the hydrologic characteristics in the WUS are mainly associated with higher freezing levels in the warmer climate and increases in the cold season water vapor influx from the Pacific Ocean.     

Aridity and the Potential Physiological Response of C 3 Crops to Doubled Atmospheric Co 2 : A Simple Demonstration of the Sensitivity of the Canadian Prairies

Since cultivated annual C₃ field crops cover about50% of the land surface of the Canadian Prairie grassland eco-climatic zone, this vegetationinfluences the aridity of the climate during the growing season. The physiological response of these cropsto a doubling of the atmospheric concentration of CO₂ may be a doubling of canopyresistance. If this physiological effect is not counteracted by interactive feedbacks, such as increasedleaf area, evapotranspiration rates could be reduced. To demonstrate the sensitivity of thearidity of the Prairie climate to this potential physiological effect, representative spring wheatgrowing-season soil moisture and Bowen ratio curves for a doubled canopy resistance(2 × CO₂) scenario were compared with a control (1 × CO₂) scenario.Lower evapotranspiration in the 2 × CO₂ scenario: (1) Increased root-zone soilmoisture levels, and (2) weakened the atmospheric component of the hydrologic cycle by raisingBowen ratios, which reduces the convective available energy, and reduces the regionalcontribution to the atmospheric water vapour over the Prairies. A weakened hydrologic cycleimplies less rainfall, and possibly, lower soil moisture levels. Thus, the net impact of a doublingof the atmospheric concentration of CO₂ on the aridity of the Canadian Prairies is uncertain.This simple sensitivity demonstration did not consider most of the potential feedback mechanisms,nor interactions of other processes. Nevertheless, the result illustrates that the physiologicaleffect should be explicitly included in climate change models for the Canadian Prairies.     

欧亚土壤湿度异常对北半球大气环流的显著影响

用44 a ERA40再分析资料的土壤湿度和大气环流变量场, 研究持续性的欧亚大陆土壤湿度异常对后期北半球大尺度大气环流的反馈作用。首先,运用经验正交函数分解去除ENSO遥相关及趋势影响后,分析了欧亚大陆中高纬度土壤湿度变率主要模态的季节变化特征,及相对应主分量时间序列显示的土壤湿度异常的衰减时间,结果表明土壤湿度异常的主要模态在全年都表现出很好的连续性。其次,对不同季节的连续3个月的月平均土壤湿度和500 hPa高度场进行滞后最大协方差分析,研究欧亚地区中高纬度土壤湿度异常与北半球大气环流异常之间的线性耦合。第一最大协方差模态的结果表明:全年的主导信号是大气强迫土壤湿度的变化,但在冬季和夏季,大气中类似于负位相北极涛动的环流型与之前月份(最长达4个月)土壤湿度的持续变化显著相关。最后,基于土壤湿度变率中心的回归分析也证实了秋季和春季欧亚土壤湿度,特别是北非副热带,欧亚内陆和西伯利亚地区的土壤湿度异常,分别与其后的冬季和夏季的大气环流显著相关。欧亚大陆土壤湿度异常超前大气环流的信号,将有助于改善冬季和夏季北半球季节气候预报能力。     

Regional hydrologic consequences of increases in atmospheric CO2 and other trace gases

Concern over changes in global climate caused by growing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases has increased in recent years as our understanding of atmospheric dynamics and global climate systems has improved. Yet despite a growing understanding of climatic processes, many of the effects of human-induced climatic changes are still poorly understood. Major alterations in regional hydrologic cycles and subsequent changes in regional water availability may be the most important effects of such climatic changes. Unfortunately, these are among the least well-understood impact. Water-balance modeling techniques - modified for assessing climatic impacts - were developed and tested for a major watershed in northern California using climate-change scenarios from both state-of-the-art general circulation models and from a series of hypothetical scenarios. Results of this research suggest strongly that plausible changes in temperature and precipitation caused by increases in atmospheric trace-gas concentrations could have major impacts on both the timing and magnitude of runoff and soil moisture in important agricultural areas. Of particular importance are predicted patterns of summer soil-moisture drying that are consistent across the entire range of tested scenarios. The decreases in summer soil moisture range from 8 to 44%. In addition, consistent changes were observed in the timing of runoff-specifically dramatic increases in winter runoff and decreases in summer runoff. These hydrologic results raise the possibility of major environmental and socioeconomic difficulties and they will have significant implications for future water-resource planning and management.     

Hydrologic Sensitivity of Global Rivers to Climate Change

Climate predictions from four state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs) were used to assess the hydrologic sensitivity to climate change of nine large, continental river basins (Amazon, Amur, Mackenzie, Mekong, Mississippi, Severnaya Dvina, Xi, Yellow, Yenisei). The four climate models (HCCPR-CM2, HCCPR-CM3, MPI-ECHAM4, and DOE-PCM3) all predicted transient climate response to changing greenhouse gas concentrations, and incorporated modern land surface parameterizations. Model-predicted monthly average precipitation and temperature changes were downscaled to the river basin level using model increments (transient minus control) to adjust for GCM bias. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrological model (MHM) was used to calculate the corresponding changes in hydrologic fluxes (especially streamflow and evapotranspiration) and moisture storages. Hydrologic model simulations were performed for decades centered on 2025 and 2045. In addition, a sensitivity study was performed in which temperature and precipitation were increased independently by 2 °C and 10%, respectively, during each of four seasons. All GCMs predict a warming for all nine basins, with the greatest warming predicted to occur during the winter months in the highest latitudes. Precipitation generally increases, but the monthly precipitation signal varies more between the models than does temperature. The largest changes in the hydrological cycle are predicted for the snow-dominated basins of mid to higher latitudes. This results in part from the greater amount of warming predicted for these regions, but more importantly, because of the important role of snow in the water balance. Because the snow pack integrates the effects of climate change over a period of months, the largest changes occur in early to mid spring when snow melt occurs. The climate change responses are somewhat different for the coldest snow dominated basins than for those with more transitional snow regimes. In the coldest basins, the response to warming is an increase of the spring streamflow peak, whereas for the transitional basins spring runoff decreases. Instead, the transitional basins have large increases in winter streamflows. The hydrological response of most tropical and mid-latitude basins to the warmer and somewhat wetter conditions predicted by the GCMs is a reduction in annual streamflow, although again, considerable disagreement exists among the different GCMs. In contrast, for the high-latitude basins increases in annual flow volume are predicted in most cases.     

Soil-precipitation feedbacks during the South American Monsoon as simulated by a regional climate model

We summarize the recent progress in regional climate modeling in South America with the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model (RCA3-E), with emphasis on soil moisture processes. A series of climatological integrations using a continental scale domain nested in reanalysis data were carried out for the initial and mature stages of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) of 1993–92 and were analyzed on seasonal and monthly timescales. The role of including a spatially varying soil depth, which extends to 8 m in tropical forest, was evaluated against the standard constant soil depth of the model of about 2 m, through two five member ensemble simulations. The influence of the soil depth was relatively weak, with both beneficial and detrimental effects on the simulation of the seasonal mean rainfall. Secondly, two ensembles that differ in their initial state of soil moisture were prepared to study the influence of anomalously dry and wet soil moisture initial conditions on the intraseasonal development of the SAMS. In these simulations the austral winter soil moisture initial condition has a strong influence on wet season rainfall over feed back upon the monsoon, not only over the Amazon region but in subtropical South America as well. Finally, we calculated the soil moisture–precipitation coupling strength through comparing a ten member ensemble forced by the same space–time series of soil moisture fields with an ensemble with interactive soil moisture. Coupling strength is defined as the degree to which the prescribed boundary conditions affect some atmospheric quantity in a climate model, in this context a quantification of the fraction of atmospheric variability that can be ascribed to soil moisture anomalies. La Plata Basin appears as a region where the precipitation is partly controlled by soil moisture, especially in November and January. The continental convective monsoon regions and subtropical South America appears as a region with relatively high coupling strength during the mature phase of monsoon development.     

High latitude river runoff in a doubled CO2 climate

A global atmospheric model is used to calculate the monthly river flow for nine of the world's major high latitude rivers for the present climate and for a doubled CO₂ climate. The model has a horizontal resolution of 4° × 5°, but the model's runoff from each grid box is quartered and added to the appropriate river drainage basin on a 2° × 2.5° resolution. A routing scheme is used to move runoff from a grid box to its neighboring downstream grid box and ultimately to the mouth of the river. In a model simulation in which atmospheric carbon dioxide is doubled, mean annual precipitation and river flow increase for all of these rivers, increased outflow at the river mouths begins earlier in the spring, and the maximum outflow occurs approximately one month sooner due to an earlier snow melt season. In the doubled CO₂ climate, snow mass decreases for the Yukon and Mackenzie rivers in North America and for rivers in northwestern Asia, but snow mass increases for rivers in northeastern Asia.     

Possible climatic impacts of tropical deforestation

Large-scale conversion of tropical forests into pastures or annual crops will likely lead to changes in the local microclimate of those regions. Larger diurnal fluctuations of surface temperature and humidity deficit, increased surface runoff during rainy periods and decreased runoff during the dry season, and decreased soil moistrue are to be expected.It is likely that evapotranspiration will be reduced because of less available radiative energy at the canopy level since grass presents a higher albedo than forests, also because of the reduced availability of soil moisture at the rooting zone primarily during the dry season. Recent results from general circulation model (GCM) simulations of Amazonian deforestation seem to suggest that the equilibrium climate for a grassy vegetation in Amazonia would be one in which regional precipitation would be significantly reduced.Global climate changes probably will occur if there is a marked change in rainfall patterns in tropical forest regions as a result of deforestation. Besides that, biomass burning of tropical forests is likely adding CO₂ into the atmosphere, thus contributing to the enhanced greenhouse warming.     

The effect of changes in daily and interannual climatic variability on CERES-Wheat: A sensitivity study

We investigate the effect of changes in daily and interannual variability of temperature and precipitation on yields simulated by the CERES-Wheat model at two locations in the central Great Plains. Changes in variability were effected by adjusting parameters of the Richardson daily weather generator. Two types of changes in precipitation were created: one with both intensity and frequency changed; and another with change only in persistence. In both types mean total monthly precipitation is held constant. Changes in daily (and interannual) variability of temperature result in substantial changes in the mean and variability of simulated wheat yields. With a doubling of temperature variability, large reductions in mean yield and increases in variability of yield result primarily from crop failures due to winter kill at both locations. Reduced temperature variability has little effect. Changes in daily precipitation variability also resulted in substantial changes in mean and variability of yield. Interesting interactions of the precipitation variability changes with the contrasting base climates are found at the two locations. At one site where soil moisture is not limiting, mean yield decreased and variability of yield increased with increasing precipitation variability, whereas mean yields increased at the other location, where soil moisture is limiting. Yield changes were similar for the two different types of precipitation variability change investigated. Compared to an earlier study for the same locations wherein variability changes were effected by altering observed time series, and the focus was on interannual variability, the present results for yield changes are much more substantial. This study demonstrates the importance of taking into account change in daily (and interannual) variability of climate when analyzing the effect of climate change on crop yields.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

中国东部前冬、春土壤湿度与夏季气候的关系

利用中国东部(100°E以东)139个站的1951~1999年逐月反演的土壤湿度资料以及160个气象台站的气温、降水资料,分析了我国东部不同区域前冬、春土壤湿度异常与夏季气候的关系。研究结果表明,黄河以南地区上年冬季土壤湿度与夏季降水存在正的相关关系,但这种滞后相关存在明显的地域差异。其中云贵高原和华中地区夏季气候对上年冬季土壤湿度响应最显著。黄河以北的华北和内蒙地区上年冬季土壤湿度与夏季降水有弱的负相关关系。除了云贵高原地区外,多数地区上年冬季土壤湿度与夏季温度存在负相关关系,其中负相关最显著的是华北地区。春季土壤湿度除与云贵高原的夏季气候关系密切外,与其他地区夏季气候的关系不显著。土壤湿度与气候的滞后相关表明土壤湿度在年际尺度上对后期气候有一定的影响。     

Validation and sensitivity of the global hydrologic budget in stand-alone simulations with the ISBA land-surface scheme

 Global soil moisture data of high quality and resolution are not available by direct observation, but are useful as boundary and initial conditions in comprehensive climate models. In the framework of the GSWP (Global Soil Wetness Project), the ISBA land-surface scheme of Météo-France has been forced with meteorological observations and analyses in order to study the feasibility of producing a global soil wetness climatology at a 1°×1° horizontal resolution. A control experiment has been performed from January 1987 to December 1988, using the ISLSCP Initiative I boundary conditions. The annual mean, the standard deviation and the normalised annual harmonic of the hydrologic fields have been computed from the 1987 monthly results. The global maps which are presented summarise the surface hydrologic budget and its annual cycle. The soil wetness index and snow cover distributions have been compared respectively to the results of the ECMWF reanalysis and to satellite and in situ observations. The simulated runoff has been validated against a river flow climatology, suggesting a possible underestimation over some large river basins. Besides the control run, other simulations have been performed in order to study the sensitivity of the hydrologic budget to changes in the surface parameters, the precipitation forcing and the runoff scheme. Such modifications have a significant impact on the partition of total precipitation into evaporation and runoff. The sensitivity of the results suggests that soil moisture remains one of the most difficult climatological parameters to model and that any computed soil wetness climatology must be considered with great caution. Received: 3 January 1997 / Accepted: 19 August 1987     

Relevance of soil moisture for seasonal atmospheric predictions: is it an initial value problem?

Ensembles of boreal summer atmospheric simulations, spanning a 15-year period (1979–1993), are performed with the ARPEGE climate model to investigate the influence of soil moisture on climate variability and potential predictability. All experiments are forced with observed monthly mean sea surface temperatures. In addition to a control experiment with interactive soil moisture boundary conditions, two sensitivity experiments are performed. In the first, the interannual variability of the deep soil moisture is removed during the whole season, through a relaxation toward the monthly mean model climatology. In the second, only the variability of the initial soil moisture conditions is suppressed. While it is shown that soil moisture strongly contributes to the climate variability simulated in the control experiment, an analysis of variance indicates that soil moisture does not represent a significant source of predictability in most continental areas. The main exception is the North American continent, where climate predictability is clearly reduced through the use of climatological initial conditions. Using climatological soil moisture boundary conditions does not lead to strong and homogeneous impacts on potential predictability, thereby suggesting that the climate signals driven by the sea surface temperature variability are not generally amplified by interactive soil moisture and that the relevance of soil moisture for seasonal forecasting is mainly an initial value problem.     

Temperature and thermal growing season variations along elevational gradients on a sub-alpine,temperate China

Fully and accurately studying temperature variations in montane areas are conducive to a better understanding of climate modeling and climate-growth relationships on regional scales. To explore the spatio-temporal changes in air and soil temperatures and their relationship in montane areas, on-site monitoring over 2 years (2015 and 2016) was conducted at nine different elevations from 2040 to 2740 m a.s.l. on Luya Mountain in the semiarid region of China. The results showed that the annual mean of air temperature lapse rate (ATLR) was 0.67 °C/100 m. ATLR varied obviously in different months within a range of 0.57~0.79 °C/100 m. The annual mean of the soil temperature lapse rate (STLR) was 0.48 °C/100 m. Seasonally, monthly mean soil temperature did not show a consistent pattern with regard to elevation. The relationships between air and soil temperatures showed piecewise changes. Soil was decoupled from the air temperature in cold winter and early spring. The parameters of the growing season based on the two temperature types had no corresponding relations, and seasonal mean of soil temperature showed the smallest value at mid-elevation rather than in the treeline ecotone. Based on these changes, our results emphasized that altitudinal and seasonal variability caused by local factors (such as snow cover and soil moisture) should be taken into full consideration in microclimate extrapolation and treeline prediction in montane areas, especially in relation to soil temperature.     

Closing the Mackenzie basin water budget,water years 1994/95 to 1996/97

Abstract

A particularly elusive science objective for the Mackenzie Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Study (MAGS) has been to close the atmospheric moisture budget and rationalize it against the surface water budget at annual or even monthly timescales. The task, while not difficult in principle, is complicated by two factors. First is the importance of basin snow‐cover, soil and water‐body storage in the surface water budget. Month‐to‐month changes in these components are frequently greater than the atmospheric flux terms, for example, during spring snowmelt. Furthermore, there is approximately a six‐week lag before local changes are evident in the discharge at the mouth of the basin. Second, the coarse resolution of all of the supporting data may add significant systematic errors. For example, the two radiosonde soundings per day available to the project are unlikely to account adequately for all the moisture generated locally through evapotranspiration during the summer convective season.

This analysis will directly address these two main issues by applying hydrologic and atmospheric computations to assess the storage question, and by using additional soundings at a single site to sample the diurnal signature in atmospheric moisture caused by evapotranspiration. Resulting modifications to the atmospheric moisture and surface water budgets then allow near closure of the MAGS monthly water budget within acceptable error limits.     

Basic physical processes and regularities of winter and spring river runoff formation under climate warming conditions

A mechanism of climate change influence on the Medvenka River runoff in the winter- and springtime is revealed based on the generalized long-term observations carried out at the Podmoskovnaya water-balance station. It is demonstrated that average increase in the monthly mean temperature in January and February 1981–2008 of 2.8°C resulted in 1.9-time increase in the runoff over these months and its 15% decrease in April compared to the period of 1958–1980. The analysis of the observation materials and mathematical modeling of processes of migration and moisture infiltration in freezing and thawing soils allows establishing the fact that a decrease in the depth of soil freezing and, correspondingly, in moisture migration in the wintertime towards the freezing front and its accumulation in the frozen layer (a 56% increase in the runoff), available thaws (38%), and the fall increase in the soil moistening (6%) are major factors influencing the winter runoff increase.