黔东南地区各季节极端干期日数的时空分布特征

利用1961—2009年黔东南地区16个地面气象站的逐日降水资料,分别统计了四季最大连续无雨日数(日降水量<0.1mm)的时间序列,采用正交函数分解、Mann-Kendall突变检验和线性倾向估计等方法,分析了各季节极端干期日数的空间结构和时间演变规律。结果表明,黔东南地区各季节极端干期日数的时空分布存在较大差异,极端干期日数最多出现在秋季,最少是春季;夏季黔东南北部的极端干期日数多,春、秋季南部多,冬季南、北部多,西部四季相对较少,年内非均匀性特征显著。在大尺度天气系统控制下,四季极端干期日数事件的步调基本一致,黔东南中东部发生异常的频次较高,不同季节的天气系统对黔东南各区域的影响具有明显的局地性和阶段性;近49年中各季节出现极端干期日数典型多的年份比典型少的年份多;进入21世纪以后,春、秋、冬季极端干期日数均呈显著的增多趋势,而夏季变化的特征不明显。     

Spatio-temporal variation and statistical characteristic of extreme dry spell in Yellow River Basin, China

Drought is one of the most detrimental natural hazards in Yellow River Basin (YRB). In this research, spatio-temporal variation and statistical characteristic of drought in YRB is studied by using dry spell. Two extreme series, including annual maximum series (AMS) and partial duration series (PDS), are used and simulated with generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized Pareto (GP), and Pearson type III (PE3) distributions. The results show that the northern part is drier than the southern part of YRB. Besides, the maximum dry spell usually starts in October, November, and December. According to the trend analysis, mean maximum length of dry spell (MxDS) shows a negative trend in most stations. From the L-moments and Kolmogorov–Smirnov test method, it can be found that GEV model can better fit AMS while GP and PE3 can better fit PDS. Moreover, the quantiles from optimal model of AMS and PDS depict a similar distribution with values increases from south to north. The spatial distribution of scale and location parameters of GEV model for AMS shows a south-to-north gradient, while the distribution of shape parameter is a little irregularity. Furthermore, based on the linear correlation analysis, there is an evident linear relation between location and scale parameters with mean and standard variation of MxDS, respectively.     

MV-WG: a new multi-variable weather generator

This paper presents a new stochastic multi-variable weather generator (MV-WG) and compares its performance with LARS-WG version 4.0. Daily data of 109 meteorological stations from a North American database were used in a twofold comparison of the two generators: (1) the capability of reproducing the mean and variance of annual, seasonal and monthly values, and (2) the capability of reproducing extreme weather events were compared. Both generators did very well on imitating the mean and the variance of the monthly values of the investigated variables, but both showed a more moderate performance as far as the generation of extreme events was concerned. The three-parameter Weibull function, which is first introduced in MV-WG, was found to be a powerful tool to describe not only the distribution of the daily precipitation amounts, but also the distribution of dry and wet spell lengths, as well.     

Abnormal weather events in 2009, increased precipitation and disastrous impacts in the Philippines

The Philippines has recently experienced distinct changes in the weather patterns with disastrous results. These changes which were distinctly felt in 2009 included: 1. too much precipitation throughout the year; 2. some areas received a lot of rain while other parts of the country went through dry spell and drought conditions; and 3. abnormalities and variance in weather patterns (e.g. multiple entry of a tropical cyclone during an El Niño event; longer duration of tropical cyclone; deviations from the normal tropical cyclone path). The country, with its disaster risk management program in place, has managed to bring down the cost of damage and number of casualties due to weather-related disasters. However, in some instances, disaster risk response was made difficult due to other factors (e.g. degraded ecosystem, ill-managed land use and risk denial by people and communities). In general though, the resiliency and ability to recover by the people devastated by these disasters and the availability of community-based support systems provided the best means of coping with these catastrophic events. This is important as climate change is projected to bring more variations in the country’s weather and climate patterns which, as of now, are already adversely affecting the people.     

干湿持续期随机模拟

该文应用数据建模技术, 实现干湿期随机建模。主要包括:利用历史气象资料, 从中采集干湿期数据; 应用实测数据, 创建干湿期经验分布函数; 应用Monte Carlo方法和经验分布参数, 随机生成干湿期序列, 通过和Markov链模型输出的对比分析, 讨论生成序列的统计误差, 测试结果显示, 与两状态Markov链方法相比, 所建模型性能更好。     

Dry spells in the River Plata Basin: an approximation of the diagnosis of droughts using daily data

This study addresses the dry spells observed in the La Plata Basin using daily data from 94 observation stations during sampling periods from 1900 to 2005. Dry days were defined as having less than 0.3?mm of accumulated precipitation. This definition allowed for the assessment of the dryness in the La Plata Basin and a comparison with other regions. The main purpose of this study was to analyse dry spells, especially extreme cases (meteorological droughts), and assess them on a daily basis. Trends and low frequency of droughts were analysed using a general framework to detect and compare properties of dry states based on daily and annual time scales. The trends were estimated using two different methods. Overall, the trends showed a decrease, especially in the eastern basin region during the period of 1972?C1996. The results showed sporadic decreases in dry events and events of extreme dryness (droughts). Spectral structure permits an inference of low-frequency maxima and confirmed an inter-annual 2- to 3-year period of variability in drought occurrence for most of the basin. Furthermore, probabilistic distribution functions of dry spells at basin stations were analysed to confirm that they followed a geometric?Cbinomial distribution. Additional tests were used to determine whether there was a second threshold, using the Weibull and gamma adjustment models. In order to study spatial homogeneity, the field of dry spell maxima in the basin was generated using a vector array based on the occurrence date and length of the maximum spell. Due to the dependence of spell length on the annual cycle, the longest spells were observed from April to the beginning of winter in the Argentine northwest region and in the northern and western regions of the basin. The intensity of droughts decreased in the Pampas and Mesopotamia regions. The drought of 1988 was considered to be the longest dry spell in the basin. The water deficits from this drought resulted in Argentinean economic losses of more than four billion US dollars during 1988.     

1957-2005年河南省降水和温度极端事件变化

 利用河南省1957-2005年逐日降水,最高、最低和日平均气温资料,分析了近50 a河南省极端天气事件的变化趋势。结果表明：1957-2005年河南省暴雨日数、极端降水事件和严重干燥事件发生频率都在增加,但其线性趋势并不显著;暴雨和极端降水的变化趋势呈明显的南北差异;异常高温事件增加而异常低温事件减少,暖冬的趋势比较显著;高温日数和低温日数都显著减少,其变化趋势的空间分布具有很好的一致性。     

1957-2005年河南省降水和温度极端事件变化

利用河南省1957-2005年逐日降水,最高、最低和日平均气温资料,分析了近50 a河南省极端天气事件的变化趋势。结果表明：1957-2005年河南省暴雨日数、极端降水事件和严重干燥事件发生频率都在增加,但其线性趋势并不显著;暴雨和极端降水的变化趋势呈明显的南北差异;异常高温事件增加而异常低温事件减少,暖冬的趋势比较显著;高温日数和低温日数都显著减少,其变化趋势的空间分布具有很好的一致性。     

Spatio-temporal variability and predictability of summer monsoon onset over the Philippines

The spatio-temporal variability of boreal summer monsoon onset over the Philippines is studied through the analysis of daily rainfall data across a network of 76 gauges for the period 1977 to 2004 and the pentad Merged Analysis of Precipitation from the US Climate Prediction Center from 1979 to 2006. The onset date is defined using a local agronomic definition, namely the first wet day of a 5-day period receiving at least 40 mm without any 15-day dry spell receiving <5 mm in the 30 days following the start of that period. The onset is found to occur rather abruptly across the western Philippines around mid-May on average and is associated with the set-up of a “classical” monsoonal circulation with low-level easterlies subsequently veering to southerly, and then southwesterly. The onset manifests itself merely as a seasonal increase of rainfall over the eastern Philippines, where rainfall occurs throughout most of the year. Interannual variability of the onset date is shown to consist of a spatially coherent large-scale component, rather similar over the western and eastern Philippines, with a moderate to high amount of local-scale (i.e. station scale) noise. In consequence, the large-scale signal can be easily retrieved from any sample of at least 5–6 stations across the network although the local-scale coherence and fingerprint of the large-scale signal of the onset date are found to be stronger over the central Philippines, roughly from Southern Luzon to Northern Mindanao. The seasonal predictability of local onset is analyzed through a cross-validated canonical correlation analysis using tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature in March and the 850 hPa May wind field from dynamical forecast models as predictors. The regional-scale onset, defined as the average of standardized local-scale anomalies in onset date, shows good predictive skill (r ≈ 0.8). Moreover, most of the stations show weak to moderate skill (median skill = 0.28–0.43 depending on the scheme) with spatial averaging across stations typically increasing skill to >0.6.     

The evolution of temperature extremes in the Gaspé Peninsula,Quebec, Canada (1974–2013)

The majority of natural hazards that affect Canadian territory are the result of extreme climate and weather conditions. Among these weather hazards, some can be calculated from the application of thresholds for minimum and maximum temperatures at a daily or monthly timescale. These thermal indices allowed the prediction of extreme conditions that may have an impact on the human population by affecting, for example, health, agriculture, and water resources. In this article, we discuss the methods used (RHtestsV4, SPLIDHOM, ClimPACT) then describe the steps followed to calculate the indices, including how we dealt with the problem of missing data and the necessity to identify a common methodology to analyze the time series. We also present possible solutions for ensuring the quality of meteorological data. We then present an overview of the results, namely the main trends and variability of extreme temperature for seven stations located in the Gaspé Peninsula from 1974 to 2013. Our results indicate some break points in time series and positive trends for most indices related to the rise of the temperatures but indicate a negative trend for the indices related to low temperatures for most stations during the study period.     

A comparison of three multi-site statistical downscaling models for daily rainfall in the North China Plain

Three statistical downscaling methods (conditional resampling statistical downscaling model: CR-SDSM, the generalised linear model for daily climate time series: GLIMCLIM, and the non-homogeneous hidden Markov model: NHMM) for multi-site daily rainfall were evaluated and compared in the North China Plain (NCP). The comparison focused on a range of statistics important for hydrological studies including rainfall amount, extreme rainfall, intra-annual variability, and spatial coherency. The results showed that no single model performed well over all statistics/timescales, suggesting that the user should chose appropriate methods after assessing their advantages and limitations when applying downscaling methods for particular purposes. Specifically, the CR-SDSM provided relatively robust results for annual/monthly statistics and extreme characteristics, but exhibited weakness for some daily statistics, such as daily rainfall amount, dry-spell length, and annual wet/dry days. GLIMCLIM performed well for annual dry/wet days, dry/wet spell length, and spatial coherency, but slightly overestimated the daily rainfall. Additionally, NHMM performed better for daily rainfall and annual wet/dry days, but slightly underestimated dry/wet spell length and overestimated the daily extremes. The results of this study could be applied when investigating climate change impact on hydrology and water availability for the NCP, which suffers from intense water shortages due to climate change and human activities in recent years.     

Local path dependence of U.S. socioeconomic exposure to climate extremes and the vulnerability commitment

Despite improvements in disaster risk management in the United States, a trend toward increasing economic losses from extreme weather events has been observed. This trend has been attributed to growth in socioeconomic exposure to extremes, a process characterized by strong path dependence. To understand the influence of path dependence on past and future losses, an index of potential socioeconomic exposure was developed at the U.S. county level based upon population size and inflation-adjusted wealth proxies. Since 1960, exposure has increased preferentially in the U.S. Southeast (particularly coastal and urban counties) and Southwest relative to the Great Plains and Northeast. Projected changes in exposure from 2009 to 2054 based upon scenarios of future demographic and economic change suggest a long-term commitment to increasing, but spatially heterogeneous, exposure to extremes, independent of climate change. The implications of this path dependence are examined in the context of several natural hazards. Using methods previously reported in the literature, annualized county-level losses from 1960 to 2008 for five climate-related natural hazards were normalized to 2009 values and then scaled based upon projected changes in exposure and two different estimates of the exposure elasticity of losses. Results indicate that losses from extreme events will grow by a factor of 1.3–1.7 and 1.8–3.9 by 2025 and 2050, respectively, with the exposure elasticity representing a major source of uncertainty. The implications of increasing physical vulnerability to extreme weather events for investments in disaster risk management are ultimately contingent upon the normative values of societal actors.     

Long-Term Trends in Extreme Temperatures in Hong Kong and Southern China

The observed long-term trends in extreme temperatures in Hong Kong were studied based on the meteorological data recorded at the Hong Kong Observatory Headquarters from 1885-2008. Results show that, over the past 124 years, the extreme daily minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as the length of the warm spell in Hong Kong, exhibit statistically significant long-term rising trends, while the length of the cold spell shows a statistically significant decreasing trend. The time-dependent return period analysis also indicated that the return period for daily minimum temperature at 4°C or lower lengthened considerably from 6 years in 1900 to over 150 years in 2000, while the return periods for daily maximum temperature reaching 35°C or above shortened drastically from 32 years in 1900 to 4.5 years in 2000. Past trends in extreme temperatures from selected weather stations in southern China from 1951-2004 were also assessed. Over 70% of the stations studied yielded a statistically significant rising trend in extreme daily minimum temperature, while the trend for extreme maximum temperatures was found to vary, with no significant trend established for the majority of stations.     

Impacts of extreme weather on wheat and maize in France: evaluating regional crop simulations against observed data

Extreme weather conditions can strongly affect agricultural production, with negative impacts that can at times be detected at regional scales. In France, crop yields were greatly influenced by drought and heat stress in 2003 and by extremely wet conditions in 2007. Reported regional maize and wheat yields where historically low in 2003; in 2007 wheat yields were lower and maize yields higher than long-term averages. An analysis with a spatial version (10?×?10?km) of the EPIC crop model was tested with regards to regional crop yield anomalies of wheat and maize resulting from extreme weather events in France in 2003 and 2007, by comparing simulated results against reported regional crops statistics, as well as using remotely sensed soil moisture data. Causal relations between soil moisture and crop yields were specifically analyzed. Remotely sensed (AMSR-E) JJA soil moisture correlated significantly with reported regional crop yield for 2002–2007. The spatial correlation between JJA soil moisture and wheat yield anomalies was positive in dry 2003 and negative in wet 2007. Biweekly soil moisture data correlated positively with wheat yield anomalies from the first half of June until the second half of July in 2003. In 2007, the relation was negative the first half of June until the second half of August. EPIC reproduced observed soil dynamics well, and it reproduced the negative wheat and maize yield anomalies of the 2003 heat wave and drought, as well as the positive maize yield anomalies in wet 2007. However, it did not reproduce the negative wheat yield anomalies due to excessive rains and wetness in 2007. Results indicated that EPIC, in line with other crop models widely used at regional level in climate change studies, is capable of capturing the negative impacts of droughts on crop yields, while it fails to reproduce negative impacts of heavy rain and excessively wet conditions on wheat yield, due to poor representations of critical factors affecting plant growth and management. Given that extreme weather events are expected to increase in frequency and perhaps severity in coming decades, improved model representation of crop damage due to extreme events is warranted in order to better quantify future climate change impacts and inform appropriate adaptation responses.     

Projected changes in extreme precipitation intensity and dry spell length in Côte d’Ivoire under future climates

This study analyzes projected changes in seasonal extreme precipitation intensity and dry spell length in the investigation area (Côte d’Ivoire) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 forcing scenarios. To this end, a multi-model ensemble of fourteen CORDEX-Africa regional climate model simulations is used during the three stages of the West African Monsoon (WAM) season (April–June (AMJ), July–September (JAS), and October–December (OND)). The results indicate that Côte d’Ivoire is subject to a robust increase of cumulative intensity of precipitation associated with an amplification of extreme precipitation events during the WAM. In particular during JAS, a substantial increase in extreme precipitation reaching up to 50–60% compared to the reference mean value prevails in the western and coastal areas in the far future and under the RCP8.5 scenario. In addition, AMJ season is dominated by an increase in dry spell length of about 12% and 17% in the near future and 20% and 30% in the far future in the entire country under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, albeit considerable uncertainties. OND considered as the post-monsoon season is mostly characterized by a robust decrease in dry spell length more marked in the southwest in the RCP8.5 scenario during the far future. These results suggest that agricultural production and particularly cocoa plantations in the southwestern regions could be at the risk of flooding events and that water stress remains a threat for cocoa, coffee, and other cash crop plantations in the eastern regions.     

驻马店极端气温分析

利用驻马店10个站气象资料，分析了极端温度的时间变化特征、高温天气与6--8月降水量之间的关系和极端睛热高温、极端湿热高温天气形成的天气背景及影响因子，确定了高温出现的前期预报指标。     

东北地区降水日数、强度和持续时间的年代际变化

利用93站1951—2002年逐日降水资料，分析了东北地区不同强度降水事件的时空演变特征及其对旱涝的影响。结果表明:52年来，东北地区小雨事件对年降水量的贡献率呈显著增加趋势，中雨的贡献率略为减少，大雨和暴雨的贡献率变化不大；东北年总雨日减少趋势非常明显，雨日的减少主要体现在小雨日数的减少；年降水强度表现为明显的增强趋势，主要体现为小雨和暴雨强度增强；20世纪80年代中期之前多小雨事件，80年代中期之后多中雨以上强度的降水，特别是90年代中期之后多暴雨事件。在显著变暖的20世纪90年代，降水日数明显减少，但暴雨日数基本不变，强度明显增强。对东北地区降水量、降水变幅、降水事件的变化特征分析表明:该区域降水有向不均衡、极端化发展的趋势，旱涝灾害也有加重趋势。     

Dry spell characteristics over India based on IMD and APHRODITE datasets

Selected characteristics of dry spells and associated trends over India during the 1951–2007 period is studied using two gridded datasets: the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Asian Precipitation-Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of the water resources (APHRODITE) datasets. Two precipitation thresholds, 1 and 3 mm, are used to define a dry day (and therefore dry spells) in this study. Comparison of the spatial patterns of the dry spell characteristics (mean number of dry days, mean number of dry spells, mean and maximum duration of dry spells) for the annual and summer monsoon period obtained with both datasets agree overall, except for the northernmost part of India. The number of dry days obtained with APHRODITE is larger for this region compared to IMD, which is consistent with the smaller precipitation for the region in APHRODITE. These differences are also visible in the spatial patterns of mean and maximum dry spell durations. Analysis of field significance associated with trends, at the level of 34 predefined meteorological subdivisions over the mainland, suggests better agreement between the two datasets in positive trends associated with number of dry days for the annual and summer monsoon period, for both thresholds. Important differences between the two datasets are noted in the field significance associated with the negative trends. While negative trends in annual maximum duration of dry spells appear field significant for the desert regions according to both datasets, they are found field significant for two regions (Punjab and South Interior Karnataka) for the monsoon period for both datasets. This study, in addition to providing information on the spatial and temporal patterns associated with dry spell characteristics, also allows identification of regions and characteristics where the two datasets agree/disagree.     

Dry spell,onset and cessation of the wet season rainfall in the Upper Baro-Akobo Basin,Ethiopia

In this study, maximum dry spell length and number of dry spell periods of rainy seasons in the upper Baro-Akobo River basin which is a part of the Nile basin, Western Ethiopia, were investigated to analyse the drought trend. Daily rainfall records of the period 1972–2000 from eight rain gauge stations were used in the analysis, and Mann-Kendall test was used to test trends for significance. Furthermore, the beginning and end of the trend development in the dry spell were also tested using the sequential version of Mann-Kendall test. Results have shown that there is neither clear monotonic trend found in dry spell for the basin nor significant fluctuation in the onset, cession and duration of rainfall in the Baro-Akobo river basin. This sufficiently explains why rain-fed agriculture has suffered little in the western part of Ethiopia. The predictable nature of dry spell pattern may have allowed farmers to adjust to rainfall variability in the basin. Unlike many parts of Ethiopia, the Baro-Akobo basin climate variability is not a limiting factor for rain-fed agriculture productivity which may contribute significantly to national food security.     

Rain-based factors of high agricultural impacts over Senegal. Part I: integration of local to sub-regional trends and variability

The evolution of seasonal cycle and interannual rainfall, the number of rainy days and daily rainfall types, dry spells frequency of occurrence, onset/cessation/length of rainy season, sowing dates, and the duration of the cropping period, are investigated at local (individual sites) and sub-regional scales (four different rainfall zones) using daily records of station data (83 sites) over Senegal. In the limits of a case study, these analyses complement and update previous studies conducted in the extreme Western Sahel (11?C16° N and 20° W?C10° E). The results unveil noticeable evolution of some of these rain-based factors in the recent periods as compared to the previous dry years. In the regions recording less than 800?mm/year (Sudan and Sahel sub-regions), the positive and statistically significant trends of rainfall amount are associated with new features of increasing frequency of short dry spell category, increasing number of some classes of extreme daily rainfall amounts and shifts in the peak number of rainy days. At sub-regional scales, the starting years (or change points) the magnitude and the signs of the new trends are unevenly distributed in the period post-1990. Earlier and higher amplitude changes are found at local scales and not less than one third of the sites in each sub-regional network are significantly affected. The extreme Southern sub-region exhibits no significant changes. Statistically significant trends are not observed on daily rain records ??10?mm, onset/cessation dates, successful sowing dates, rainy season length, cropping period, medium and extreme dry spell categories. Rather, some of these factors such as the successful sowing date and the cropping season length exhibit significant variability. The onset (cessation) dates of the rainy season are followed (preceded) by extreme dry spell episodes. In the perspectives of climate impact assessments on the local agriculture a sub-regional periodic synopsis of the major rain-based factors of interest to agricultural applications are provided at the end the paper. They document some important internal variability patterns to reckon with in a multi-decadal work over the 1950?C2008 period for this region.