Site characterization by seismic noise in Istanbul,Turkey

Single station seismic noise measurements were carried out at 192 sites in the western part of Istanbul, Turkey. This extensive survey allowed the fundamental resonance frequency of the sedimentary cover to be mapped, and identify areas prone to site amplification. The results are in good agreement with the geological distribution of sedimentary units, indicating a progressive decrease of the fundamental resonance frequencies from the northeastern part, where the bedrock outcrops, towards the southwestern side, where a thickness of some hundreds meters for the sedimentary cover is estimated. The particular distribution of fundamental resonance frequencies indicates that local amplification of the ground motion might play a significative role in explaining the anomalous damage distribution after the 17 August 1999 Kocaeli Earthquake.     

Modeling and simulating earthquake accelerograms using strong-motion data from the Istanbul, Turkey, region

In order to simulate earthquake ground motions for the Instanbul (Turkey) region, acceleration time series from western Turkey are modeled by transforming the series into a stationary one which can be described by an autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) process. The ARMA and other parameters used in the stationary transformation are related to physical parameters (e.g. magnitude, distance to epicenter, depth to hypocenter and duration) via a regression analysis. To create simulations for a given set of physical parameters, the modelling procedure is reversed.     

利用高精度复测GPS网进行中国大陆区域地壳运动特征分析

本文利用高精度复测GPS网,用多面函数拟合的方法计算出中国大陆地壳运动速度场模型,得到了有实用价值的中国地壳平面运动整体速度场图像和垂直速率等值线图像,同时计算出ITRF97参考框架下中国大陆地壳运动的区域背景场,该局域背景场与NNR-NUVELlA、Sillard、Larson 等全球板块运动模型所提供的欧亚板块的欧拉极方向和旋转速率在量级和大趋势上是一致的.据此对全球框架下的中国大陆区域地壳运动特征进行分析.     

Loss estimation in Istanbul based on deterministic earthquake scenarios of the Marmara Sea region (Turkey)

The rapid urban development in Istanbul has lead to an increase in the exposure levels of the urban vulnerability. Due to the steadily increasing population, with improper land-use planning, inappropriate construction techniques and inadequate infrastructure systems, associated with an existing high hazard level, Istanbul is one of the most risky cities in the Mediterranean region. Estimations of casualties and losses, expected for given earthquake scenarios, are necessary to develop sustainable rehabilitation programs and for improving preparedness. Deterministic hazard scenarios and time-dependent probabilistic hazard assessment were used as input to a GIS-based loss estimation model, to evaluate the earthquake risk for Istanbul.     

Artificial Neural Network Prediction of Tropospheric Ozone Concentrations in Istanbul,Turkey

Tropospheric (ground‐level) ozone has adverse effects on human health and environment. In this study, next day's maximum 1‐h average ozone concentrations in Istanbul were predicted using multi‐layer perceptron (MLP) type artificial neural networks (ANNs). Nine meteorological parameters and nine air pollutant concentrations were utilized as inputs. The total 578 datasets were divided into three groups: training, cross‐validation, and testing. When all the 18 inputs were used, the best performance was obtained with a network containing one hidden layer with 24 neurons. The transfer function was hyperbolic tangent. The correlation coefficient (R), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and index of agreement or Willmott's Index (d₂) for the testing data were 0.90, 8.78 µg/m³, 11.15 µg/m³, and 0.95, respectively. Sensitivity analysis has indicated that the persistence information (current day's maximum and average ozone concentrations), NO concentration, average temperature, PM₁₀, maximum temperature, sunshine time, wind direction, and solar radiation were the most important input parameters. The values of R, MAE, RMSE, and d₂ did not change considerably for the MLP model using only these nine inputs. The performances of the MLP models were compared with those of regression models (i.e., multiple linear regression and multiple non‐linear regression). It has been found that there was no significant difference between the ANN and regression modeling techniques for the forecasting of ozone concentrations in Istanbul.     

Geodynamic pattern of the West Bohemia region based on permanent GPS measurements

In West Bohemia in the period of 2003–2005 five permanent GPS stations were established to detect local movement trends. Their mutual position changes were determined from time series of GPS observations and were associated with seismic, gravity, and geo-scientific data related to the geodynamics of the West Bohemian region. Knowledge of local physical processes based on spatial and time earthquake occurrences, focal mechanisms of main events, stress and strain fields set up a tool for recent seismotectonic analyses. The permanent GPS measurements bring independent effective phenomenon, direct monitoring of site movements. The movements detected by our GPS stations evidenced WSW-ENE extension with subsiding trends in the western part of the Cheb Basin and the Smrčiny Mts. Besides, there were monitored dextral movements along the Mariánské Lázně tectonic fault zone (MLF). A comparison of results with previous data formed a presumption that an antithetic stress pattern has to exist inside the inner part of the MLF tectonic zone. This antithetic stress can explain the coexistence of dextral and sinistral movements on individual tectonic elements in the West Bohemian area.     

Back Trajectory Analysis of Precipitation Chemistry in the Urban and Forest Areas of Istanbul,Turkey

There are many influences on precipitation chemistry and its variation. The transport paths of air masses before rainfall provide useful knowledge for evaluating and understanding the results of the analysis of the chemical compositions of precipitation. As a consequence, it is important to determine the variation of the chemical composition of rainwater by back trajectory analysis for estimating the source of the emissions. In this study, the rainwater samples were collected using specially designed collectors between November 1997 and June 1998 in the urban and forest areas of Istanbul. The rainwater samples were analyzed for major ion concentrations and pH. The volume‐weighed mean pH values were 5.8. The rainwater samples were classified to determine the source region of pollutants in rainwater using synoptic maps. In general, the results of the analysis on the chemical concentrations of precipitation during the measurement period showed that most of ions reached Istanbul from the directions of W‐SW, NW‐W, and NE‐N, respectively.     

The Marmara Sea region: Seismic behaviour in time and the likelihood of another large earthquake near Istanbul (Turkey)

The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) extends for about 1500 km from Karliova to the east, to the Egean Sea in the west. The Marmara region, located near the western end of the NAF, is a tectonically active zone characterized by the transition between a strike slip stress regime and an extensional one in the Aegean Sea. Microseismic studies performed around the Marmara Sea in 1995 [Tectonophysics 316, 2000, 1], and just before the 1999 Izmit Earthquake Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 92, 2002a, 361;J. Seismol. 6, 2002b, 287) permitted the analysis of the evolution of seismicity connected to this destructive earthquake and its sequels. Several observations indicate that the aftershock distribution fits well the EW orientation of the NAF, but the ruptures are not simple and linear as a first glance would suggest. Instead they are segmented in at least five pieces as shown by the slip variation and aftershock clusters, showing complexity at different scales (Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 92, 2002a, 361). There is still a gap, across the northern border of the Marmara Sea that has not ruptured, and this is the only sector that did not break on the NAF since the 1939 great Erzincan earthquake. Will it rupture as a whole with a large magnitude earthquake, or by segments with smaller magnitude events? The Hurst analysis of the overall behaviour of the seismicity in the Marmara region since historical times shows that if a large earthquake occurs in the near future, it might break the complete gap. The Hurst character of the time variation of seismicity is persistent with H= 0.82. The aftershocks of the 1999 Izmit earthquake can be analyzed by using the Hurst method, showing an exceptionally high persistent memory.     

Spatio-temporal drought analysis in the Trakya region,Turkey

Abstract

Since droughts are natural phenomena, their occurrence cannot be predicted with certainty and thus it must be treated as a random variable. Once drought duration and magnitude have been found objectively, it is possible to plan for the transport of water in known quantities to drought-stricken areas either from alternative water resources or from water stored during wet periods. The summation of deficits over a particular period is referred to as the drought magnitude. Drought intensity is the ratio of drought magnitude to its duration. These drought properties at different truncation levels provide significant hydrological and hydrometeorological design quantities. In this study, the run analysis and z-score are used for determining drought properties of given hydrological series. In addition, kriging is used as a spatial drought analysis for mapping. This study is applied to precipitation records for Istanbul, Edirne, Tekirdag and Kirklareli in the Trakya region, Turkey and then the drought period, magnitude and standardized precipitation index (SPI) values are presented to depict the relationships between drought duration and magnitude.     

Occurrence of Phthalates in Sewage Sludge from Three Wastewater Treatment Plants in Istanbul,Turkey

Phthalates are considered priority pollutants because of their potential adverse effects on ecosystems and human health. The objectives of this study were to determine the occurrence of five phthalates (DMP, DEP, DBP, BBP, and DEHP) in sewage sludge and to determine the seasonal variability of these contaminants at three (Bahçe?ehir, Pa?aköy, and Tuzla) full‐scale municipal and domestic wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) in Istanbul, Turkey. Mass balance was also calculated for DEHP at Tuzla WWTP sludge treatment units. DMP, DEP, DBP, BBP, and DEHP concentrations in sewage sludge ranged from 1.4 to 2.7 mg/kg dry weight (dw), 1.1 to 2.8, 0.6 to 4.6, 2.8 to 6.2, 18 to 490 mg/kg dw, respectively. Phthalate concentrations from the Bahçe?ehir and Pa?aköy WWTPs met the limit (100 mg/kg dw) of Turkey national sludge regulation and the Europe Union draft of sludge directive for land application, whereas phthalate concentrations from Tuzla WWTP exceeded the maximum permissible concentration. Phthalate concentrations did not show seasonal variations for Bahçe?ehir and Pa?aköy WWTPs, which receive mainly household wastewater while some fluctuations were observed DEP, DBP, and DEHP at Tuzla WWTP which has a lot of industrial wastewater contribution. The mass balance showed that approximately 17% of DEHP in the primary and secondary sludge was removed by anaerobic digestion, while 43% returned back to the beginning of the WWTP and 40% remained in the dewatered sludge. This study suggests that phthalates in sludge from WWTPs with industrial wastewater contribution may limit the use of sludge for land application.     

丹巴县甲居滑坡GPS地表监测阶段成果

本文主要介绍GPS 用于地质灾害滑坡地表监测的技术和方法, 并通过在四川丹巴县甲居滑坡区布设的GPS 监测网的测量, 阐述了在GPS 滑坡监测时, 监测点位选择、监测网布设、数据处理的方法.监测结果表明, GPS 滑坡监测的精度达到毫米级, 完全满足滑坡监测的精度要求.     

Crustal block rotations in Chinese mainland revealed by GPS measurements

We simulate GPS horizontal velocity field in terms of rotations of crustal blocks to describe deformation behavior of the Chinese mainland and its neighboring areas.31 crustal blocks are bounded primarily by~30 Quaternary faults with distinct geometries and variable long-term rates of<20 mm/a,and 1 683 GPS velocities were determined from decade-long observations mostly with an averaged uncertainty of 1?2 mm/a.We define GPS velocity at a site by the combination of motion of rigid block and elastic strain ind...     

长江三角洲地区地形变特征的GPS监测和分析

本文介绍上海地区GPS综合应用网SCGAN在长江三角洲地区地形变的监测和研究中所取得的成果. 对监测到的长江三角洲地区振幅达5～6 mm的垂向季节性运动的地球物理机制进行较深入的分析和研究. 研究表明,通过对大气压、积雪和土壤湿度质量负载、非潮汐海洋质量负载、以及基岩的热胀冷缩等地球物理机制因素引起地壳垂向季节性变化的定量分析,可以较好地解释GPS的监测结果,对两者间存在的一些系统偏差做了定性分析. 而对上海市区4个GPS基准站监测到的振幅近10 mm的垂向季节性变化,在扣除地球物理因素后,剩余5 mm垂向季节性变化与上海近几年每年定期采、灌地下水引起的地下水水位的周期变化有关.     

Long-term trend analysis using discrete wavelet components of annual precipitations measurements in Marmara region (Turkey)

The purpose of this study is to determine the possible trends in annual total precipitation series by using the non-parametric methods such as the wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall test. The wavelet trend (W-T) analysis is for the first time presented in this study. Using discrete wavelet components of measurement series, we aimed to find which periodicities are mainly responsible for trend of the measurement series. We found that some periodic events clearly affect the trend of precipitation series. 16-yearly periodic component is the effective component on Bal?kesir annual precipitation data and is responsible for producing a real trend founded on the data. Also, global wavelet spectra and continuous wavelet transform were used for analysis to precipitation time series in order to clarify time-scale characteristics of the measured series. The effects of regional differences on W-T analysis are checked by using records of measurement stations located in different climatic areas. The data set spans from 1929 to 1993 and includes precipitation records from meteorological stations of Turkey. The trend analysis on DW components of the precipitation time series (W-T model) clearly explains the trend structure of data.     

An investigation of seismicity for the Central Anatolia region,Turkey

The aim of this study is to investigate the seismicity of Central Anatolia, within the area restricted to coordinates 30–35° longitude and 38–41° latitude, by determining the “a” and “b” parameters in a Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency relationship using data from earthquakes of moment magnitude (Mw)?≥?4.0 that occurred between 1900 and 2010. Based on these parameters and a Poisson model, we aim to predict the probability of other earthquakes of different magnitudes and return periods (recurrence intervals). To achieve this, the study area is divided into six seismogenic zones, using spatial distributions of earthquakes greater than Mw?≥?4.0 with active faults. For each seismogenic zone, the a and b parameters in the Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency relationship were calculated by the least squares method. The probability of occurrence and return periods of various magnitude earthquakes were calculated from these statistics using the Poisson method.     

Ambient noise levels and characterization in Aegean region,Turkey

We assessed the ambient noise level in the Aegean region and analyzed its diurnal variation and its relation to the earthquake detection capability of the Aegean Region Seismic Network (ARSN). We prepared probability density functions (PDFs) for 19 broadband stations in the Aegean region operated by the Earth and Marine Sciences Institute (EMSI) of the Marmara Research Center (MRC) of the Turkish Scientific Research Council (TÜB?TAK). The power spectral densities (PSDs) used to construct PDFs for each station were computed for the periods between ~?0.02 and 180 s. In addition, we generated noise map of the Aegean region for different periods using the PDFs to assess the origin of the noise. We analyzed earthquake activity in the region and found that there are more local events recorded at night than during the day for each station. This difference is strongly related to diurnal variation of background noise level for the period range mostly covering the frequency range for the local events. We observed daytime noise level ~?15 to 20 dB higher than that at the nighttime in high frequencies for almost all stations caused by its proximity to settled areas and roads. Additionally, we observed a splitting peak within the Double Frequency (DF) microseism band; it showed a clear noise increase around the short period DF band at all the stations, decreasing inland. This peak may be related to sea waves locally generated in the Aegean Sea. We also identified a prominent increase related to marble saw companies in some stations’ noise PDFs.     

Recent crustal deformation of İzmir, Western Anatolia and surrounding regions as deduced from repeated GPS measurements and strain field

To investigate contemporary neotectonic deformation in İzmir, Western Anatolia and in its neighborhood, a relatively dense Global Positioning System (GPS) monitoring network was established in 2001. Combination of three spatially dense GPS campaigns in 2001, 2003 and 2004 with temporally dense campaigns between 1992 and 2004 resulted in a combined velocity field representing active deformation rate in the region. We computed horizontal and vertical velocity fields with respect to Earth-centered, Earth-fixed ITRF2000, to Eurasia and to Anatolia as well.The rates of principal and shear strains along with rigid-body rotation rates were derived from velocity field. Results show east–west shortening between Karaburun Peninsula and northern part of İzmir Bay together with the extension of İzmir Bay in accordance with general extension regime of Western Anatolia and Eastern Agea. East–west shortening and north–south extension of Karaburun Peninsula are closely related to right-lateral faulting and a clockwise rotation. There exists a block in the middle of the peninsula with a differential motion at a rate of 3–5 ± 1 mm/year and 5–6 ± 1 mm/year to the east and south, respectively.As is in Western Anatolia, north–south extension is dominant in almost all parts of the region despite the fact that they exhibit significantly higher rates in the middle of the peninsula. Extensional rates along Tuzla Fault lying nearly perpendicular to İzmir Bay and in its west are maximum in the region with an extension rate of 300–500 ± 80–100 nanostrain/year and confirm its active state. Extensional rates in other parts of the region are at level of 50–150 nanostrain/year as expected in the other parts of Western Anatolia.     

Lower atmospheric anomalies following the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake observed by GPS measurements

The Mw=8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake occurred on May 12, 2008 at the Longmen Shan fault, the western Sichuan Basin, China, killing more than ten thousand people in several cities and causing large economic losses. Global Positioning System (GPS) observations have provided unique insights on this event, including co-seismic ionospheric disturbances, co-/post-seismic crustal deformations and fault slip distributions. However, the processes and the driving mechanisms are still not clear, particularly possible seismo-lower atmospheric–ionospheric coupling behaviors. In this paper, the lower atmospheric (tropospheric) variations are investigated using the total zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) from GPS measurements around this event. It has the first found co-seismic tropospheric anomalies during the mainshock with an increase and then a decrease, mainly in the zenith hydrostatic delay component (ZHD), while it is also supported by the same pattern of surface-observed atmospheric pressure changes at co-located GPS site that are driven by the ground-coupled air waves from ground vertical motion of seismic waves propagation. Therefore, the co-seismic tropospheric disturbances (CTD) indicate again the acoustic coupling effect of the atmosphere and the solid-Earth with air wave propagation from the ground to the top atmosphere.     

First geomagnetic measurements in the Antarctic region

Based on data from literature and archival sources, we have further processed and analyzed the results of geomagnetic measurements made during the 1772–1775 Second World Expedition by James Cook and the 1819–1821 overseas Antarctic Expedition by Russian mariners Bellingshausen and Lazarev. Comparison with the GUFM historical model showed that there are systematic differences in the spatial structure of both the declination and its secular variation. The results obtained can serve as a basis for the construction of regional models of the geomagnetic field for the Antarctic region.     

重复绝对重力测量观测的滇西地区和拉萨点的重力变化及其意义

根据近年来在滇西地区和西藏拉萨绝对重力点上的一些新的绝对重力重复观测结果 ,对1990年以来在这些点上绝对重力重复观测结果进行了分析. 滇西地区的5个绝对重力观测 点的近10年的重复观测结果表明,大部分观测时段没有出现与地球动力学事件有关的重力变 化,只有丽江和洱源2个绝对重力观测点的观测结果显示丽江地震前后有变化. 为了研究该 重力变化的原因,本文正演模拟了出现重力变化期间丽江地震同震位错引起的重力变化,模 拟结果与实际观测结果有较好的一致性. 西藏拉萨近10年以来的重复观测结果给出了拉萨点 的绝对重力值以-1.82±0.9×10-8m·s-2·a-1速率下降,这从重力学 的角度反映出青藏高原的隆升. 对拉萨点的重力变化机制进行了探讨,根据印度板块与欧亚 大陆俯冲模型计算的拉萨点重力变化速率与观测到的重力变化速率较一致,表明现今拉萨地 区重力变化是由于印度板块与欧亚大陆俯冲所引起. 根据印度板块向欧亚大陆俯冲的位错模 型计算的拉萨点的重力变化与地表垂直位移的关系,将重力变化转换为拉萨点的隆升速率为 8.7mm/a. 