Fluctuations of the Solar Dynamo Observed in the Solar Wind and Interplanetary Magnetic Field at 1 AU and in the Outer Heliosphere

Recent helioseismic observations have found strong fluctuations at a period of about 1.3 years in the rotation speed around the tachocline in the deep solar convection layer. Similar mid-term quasi-periodicities (MTQP; periods between 1–2 years) are known to occur in various solar atmospheric and heliospheric parameters for centuries. Since the deep convection layer is the expected location of the solar magnetic dynamo, its fluctuations could modulate magnetic flux generation and cause related MTQP fluctuations at the solar surface and beyond. Accordingly, it is likely that the heliospheric MTQP periodicities reflect similar changes in solar dynamo activity. Here we study the occurrence of the MTQP periodicities in the near and distant heliosphere in the solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field observed by several satellites at 1 AU and by four interplanetary probes (Pioneer 10 and 11 and Voyager 1 and 2) in the outer heliosphere. The overall structure of MTQP fluctuations in the different locations of the heliosphere is very consistent, verifying the solar (not heliospheric) origin of these periodicities. We find that the mid-term periodicities were particularly strong during solar cycle 22 and were observed at two different periods of 1.3 and 1.7 years simultaneously. These periodicities were latitudinally organized so that the 1.3-year periodicity was found in solar wind speed at low latitudes and the 1.7-year periodicity in IMF intensity at mid-latitudes. While all heliospheric results on the 1.3-year periodicity are in a good agreement with helioseismic observations, the 1.7-year periodicity has so far not been detected in helioseismic observations. This may be due to temporal changes or due to the helioseismic method where hemispherically antisymmetric fluctuations would so far have remained hidden. In fact, there is evidence that MTQP fluctuations may occur antisymmetrically in the northern and southern solar hemisphere. Moreover, we note that the MTQP pattern was quite different during solar cycles 21 and 22, implying fundamental differences in solar dynamo action between the two halves of the magnetic cycle.     

Evidence for Planetary Forcing of the Cosmic Ray Intensity and Solar Activity Throughout the Past 9400 Years

Paleo-cosmic-ray (PCR) records based on cosmogenic ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C data are used to study the variations in cosmic-ray intensity and solar activity over the past 9400 years. There are four strong correlations with the motion of the Jovian planets; the probability of occurring by chance being <?10^?5. They are i) the PCR periodicities at 87, 350, 510, and 710 years, which closely approximate integer multiples of half the Uranus–Neptune synodic period; ii) eight periodicities in the torques calculated to be exerted by the planets on an asymmetric tachocline that approximate the periods observed in the PCR; iii) the maxima of the long-term PCR variations are coincident with syzygy (alignment) of the four Jovian planets in 5272 and 644 BP; and iv) in the time domain, the PCR intensity decreases during the first 60 years of the ≈?172 year Jose cycle (Jose, Astron. J. 70, 193, 1965) and increases in the remaining ≈?112 years in association with barycentric anomalies in the distance between the Sun and the center of mass of the solar system. Furthermore, sunspot and neutron-monitor data show that three anomalous sunspot cycles (4th, 7th, and 20th) and the long sunspot minimum of 2006 – 2009 CE coincided with the first and second barycentric anomalies of the 58th and 59th Jose cycles. Phase lags between the planetary and heliospheric effects are ≤?five years. The 20 largest Grand Minima during the past 9400 years coincided with the latter half of the Jose cycle in which they occurred. These correlations are not of terrestrial origin, nor are they due to the planets’ contributing directly to the cosmic-ray modulation process in the heliosphere. Low cosmic-ray intensity (higher solar activity) occurred when Uranus and Neptune were in superior conjunction (mutual cancellation), while high intensities occurred when Uranus–Neptune were in inferior conjunction (additive effects). Many of the prominent peaks in the PCR Fourier spectrum can be explained in terms of the Jose cycle, and the occurrence of barycentric anomalies.     

Identification of Gleissberg Cycles and a Rising Trend in a 315-Year-Long Series of Sunspot Numbers

We show in this short note that the method of singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is able to clearly extract a strong, clean, and clear component from the longest available sunspot (International Sunspot Number, ISN) time series (1700?–?2015) that cannot be an artifact of the method and that can be safely identified as the Gleissberg cycle. This is not a small component, as it accounts for 13% of the total variance of the total original signal. Almost three and a half clear Gleissberg cycles are identified in the sunspot number series. Four extended solar minima (XSM) are determined by SSA, the latest around 2000 (Cycle 23/24 minimum). Several authors have argued in favor of a double-peaked structure for the Gleissberg cycle, with one peak between 55 and 59 years and another between 88 and 97 years. We find no evidence of the former: solar activity contains an important component that has undergone clear oscillations of \(\approx90\) years over the past three centuries, with some small but systematic longer-term evolution of “instantaneous” period and amplitude. Half of the variance of solar activity on these time scales can be satisfactorily reproduced as the sum of a monotonous multi-secular increase, a \(\approx90\)-year Gleissberg cycle, and a double-peaked (\(\approx10.0\) and 11.0 years) Schwabe cycle (the sum amounts to 46% of the total variance of the signal). The Gleissberg-cycle component definitely needs to be addressed when attempting to build dynamo models of solar activity. The first SSA component offers evidence of an increasing long-term trend in sunspot numbers, which is compatible with the existence of the modern grand maximum.     

Long-Period Cycles of the Sun's Activity Recorded in Direct Solar Data and Proxies

Different records of solar activity (Wolf and group sunspot number, data on cosmogenic isotopes, historic data) were analyzed by means of modern statistical methods, including one especially developed for this purpose. It was confirmed that two long-term variations in solar activity – the cycles of Gleissberg and Suess – can be distinguished at least during the last millennium. The results also show that the century-type cycle of Gleissberg has a wide frequency band with a double structure consisting of 50–80 years and 90–140 year periodicities. The structure of the Suess cycle is less complex showing a variation with a period of 170–260 years. Strong variability in Gleissberg and Suess frequency bands was found in northern hemisphere temperature multiproxy that confirms the existence of a long-term relationship between solar activity and terrestial climate.     

Short-Term Periodicities in Solar Indices

The purpose of the present communication is to identify the short-term (few tens of months) periodicities of several solar indices (sunspot number, Caii area and K index, Lyman , 2800 MHz radio emission, coronal green-line index, solar magnetic field). The procedure used was: from the 3-month running means (3m) the 37-month running means (37m) were subtracted, and the factor (3m – 37m) was examined for several parameters. For solar indices, considerable fluctuations were seen during the ± 4 years around sunspot maxima of cycles 18–23, and virtually no fluctuations were seen in the ± 2 years around sunspot minima. The spacings between successive peaks were irregular but common for various solar indices. Assuming that there are stationary periodicities, a spectral analysis was carried out which indicated periodicities of months: 5.1–5.7, 6.2–7.0, 7.6–7.9, 8.9–9.6, 10.4–12.0, 12.8–13.4, 14.5–17.5, 22–25, 28 (QBO), 31–36 (QBO), 41–47 (QTO). The periodicities of 1.3 year (15.6 months) and 1.7 years (20.4 months) often mentioned in the literature were seen neither often nor prominently. Other periodicities occurred more often and more prominently. For the open magnetic flux estimated by Wang, Lean, and Sheeley (2000) and Wang and Sheeley (2002), it was noticed that the variations were radically different at different solar latitudes. The open flux for < 45 solar latitudes had variations very similar (parallel) to the sunspot cycle, while open flux for > 45 solar latitudes had variations anti-parallel to the sunspot cycle. The open fluxes, interplanetary magnetic field and cosmic rays, all showed periodicities similar to those of solar indices. Many peaks (but not all) matched, indicating that the open flux for < 45 solar latitudes was at least partially an adequate carrier of the solar characteristics to the interplanetary space and thence for galactic cosmic ray modulation.     

Mid-term quasi-periodicities in geomagnetic activity during the last 15 solar cycles: Connection to solar dynamo strength – To the memory of Karolen I. Paularena (1957-2001)

Several recent studies have reported quasi-periodicities with a period between 1 and 2 years (to be called here `mid-term quasi-periodicities') in various heliospheric parameters, like solar wind speed, interplanetary magnetic field, cosmic rays, and geomagnetic activity. Here we study their long-term occurrence in geomagnetic activity using an extended aa index which covers the last 15 solar cycles. We confirm their intermittent occurrence and the alternation of their dominant period between a slightly shorter period of about 1.2–1.4 years and a slightly longer period of about 1.5–1.7 years. We find that the mid-term quasi-periodicities were strong during two intervals of high solar activity: in the mid-19th century and since 1930. Instead, contrary to earlier studies, we find that they were consistently weak during low solar activity from 1860s to 1920s. This implies a long-term connection between the amplitude of mid-term quasi-periodicities and the solar dynamo strength. Since the rotation speed at the bottom of the solar convection layer (tachocline) has recently been found to vary at a mid-term periodicity, this suggests that the stronger the solar dynamo is, the more variable the rotation rate of the tachocline is. We also note that the disappearance of mid-term periodicities may be used as a precursor for long intervals of very weak solar activity, like great minima.     

A Simple Model to Describe Solar Cycle Periodicities below 11 Years

Together with the main 11-year cycle, solar activity also displays intracycle periodicities. A simple nonlinear model that describes the 11-year solar cycle with subperiodicities can be derived from the usual α – ω dynamo theory in the form of a Van der Pol equation with a forcing term. In this paper the results obtained from the Van der Pol oscillator describing the amplitude modulations and periodicities observed from the data set of the global daily coronal emission of the Fe xiv line at 530.3 nm are presented.     

Cycling Changes in the Amplitudes of the 27-Day Variation of the Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensity

We study quasi-periodical changes in the amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity, and the parameters of solar wind and solar activity. We have recently found quasi-periodicity of three to four Carrington rotation periods (3?–?4 CRP) in the amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the GCR intensity (Gil and Alania in J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys. 73, 294, 2011). A similar recurrence is recognized in parameters of solar activity (sunspot number, solar radio flux) and solar wind (components of the interplanetary magnetic field, solar wind velocity). We believe that the 3?–?4 CRP periodicity, among other periodicities, observed in the amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the GCR intensity is caused by a specific cycling structure of the Sun’s magnetic field, which may originate from the turbulent nature of the solar dynamo.     

Independent Global Modes of Solar Magnetic Field Fluctuations

Observed solar, interplanetary and geomagnetic time series contain quasi periodicities on scales of 1–2.5 years. The further discovery of 1.3 year fluctuations in helioseismic observations suggests that a variety of signals may be related to the underlying dynamo in the Sun. We use independent component analysis to study the temporal and spatial variations of a few statistically independent global modes of the axisymmetric solar magnetic field over a period of 25 years. Five modes capture the salient properties of the data. Two modes describe the polar and high latitude fields, and present 1–1.5 year quasi periodicities. The other three modes correspond to low and mid-latitude phenomena and show both 1.3 and 1.7-year variations. By comparing the characteristic time scales, dates of occurrence and heliocentric latitudes of these modes, we connect them to their manifestations in heliospheric time series.     

Nitrate Concentration in Greenland Ice: an Indicator of Changes in Fluxes of Solar and Galactic High-Energy Particles

Two sets of nitrate (NO₃ ^–) concentration data in Central Greenland ice, obtained through the GISP2 collaboration and by the University of Kansas, were analyzed statistically. The two records correlate well over time scales from a few years up to a century. They both contain quasi five-year, decadal and century-type time variations. A quasi five-year periodicity resulting from increases in the mean nitrate concentration before and after maximum sunspot number was confirmed. A tendency of solar proton events to occur more frequently during the rise/decline phases of the solar cycle may cause a quasi five-year variation. Century-type (60–110 yr) variability in nitrate outstrips the corresponding Gleissberg cycle in sunspots by 12–17 years and changes synchronously (correlates with zero phase shift) with the smoothed length of the solar Schwabe cycle. A significant correlation between century-type periodicities for nitrates in Greenland ice and northern Fennoscandian temperatures was established. The results show that despite a strong dependence on local meteorology, nitrate concentration in ice contains valuable information about global geophysical phenomena in the past.     

Solar Rotational Periodicities and the Semiannual Variation in the Solar Wind, Radiation Belt, and Aurora

The behavior of a number of solar wind, radiation belt, auroral and geomagnetic parameters is examined during the recent extended solar minimum and previous solar cycles, covering the period from January 1972 to July 2010. This period includes most of the solar minimum between Cycles 23 and 24, which was more extended than recent solar minima, with historically low values of most of these parameters in 2009. Solar rotational periodicities from 5 to 27 days were found from daily averages over 81 days for the parameters. There were very strong 9-day periodicities in many variables in 2005?–?2008, triggered by recurring corotating high-speed streams (HSS). All rotational amplitudes were relatively large in the descending and early minimum phases of the solar cycle, when HSS are the predominant solar wind structures. There were minima in the amplitudes of all solar rotational periodicities near the end of each solar minimum, as well as at the start of the reversal of the solar magnetic field polarity at solar maximum (～?1980, ～?1990, and ～?2001) when the occurrence frequency of HSS is relatively low. Semiannual equinoctial periodicities, which were relatively strong in the 1995?–?1997 solar minimum, were found to be primarily the result of the changing amplitudes of the 13.5- and 27-day periodicities, where 13.5-day amplitudes were better correlated with heliospheric daily observations and 27-day amplitudes correlated better with Earth-based daily observations. The equinoctial rotational amplitudes of the Earth-based parameters were probably enhanced by a combination of the Russell-McPherron effect and a reduction in the solar wind-magnetosphere coupling efficiency during solstices. The rotational amplitudes were cross-correlated with each other, where the 27-day amplitudes showed some of the weakest cross-correlations. The rotational amplitudes of the >?2 MeV radiation belt electron number fluxes were progressively weaker from 27- to 5-day periods, showing that processes in the magnetosphere act as a low-pass filter between the solar wind and the radiation belt. The A _p/K _p magnetic currents observed at subauroral latitudes are sensitive to proton auroral precipitation, especially for 9-day and shorter periods, while the A _p/K _p currents are governed by electron auroral precipitation for 13.5- and 27-day periodicities.     

Solar cycle dependence of periodic variations in geomagnetic Kp-index

The geomagnetic K_p-index data for the 1932–1969 period have been investigated by means of a modified power spectrum technique on the basis of overlapping 2-yr intervals. The observed 27-, and 13.5-day periodicities show an obvious solar cycle dependence through the whole period concerned. Also, periodicities in the range of 9?4 days have been observed through years of minimum and decreasing phases of solar activity. The periodicities observed are found to be related to the existence of variations in the interplanetary medium structure which modulates the geomagnetic activity.     

Statistical Analysis of the Fluctuations Detected in High-Altitude Neutron Monitor,Solar and Interplanetary Parameters

Galactic cosmic ray fluctuations from six mountain altitude neutron monitors around the world are analyzed during the period 1990–1999. The period comprises the maximum and declining phase of solar cycle 22 and the beginning of cycle 23. The evolution of the most significant periodicities and comparisons with solar activity and interplanetary indicators are presented. We found a 38-day variation present in all neutron monitors, solar activity parameters, and IMF fluctuations. The possible origin of this and other stable periodicities of cosmic ray variations in the analyzed period are discussed.     

On midrange periodicities in solar radio flux and sunspot areas

Using the Hilbert-Huang transform technique, we investigate the midrange periodicities in solar radio flux at 2800 MHz (F10.7) and sunspot areas (SAs) from February 1, 1947 to September 30, 2016. The following prominent results are found: (1) The quasi-periodic oscillations of both data sets are not identical, such as the rotational cycle, the midrange periodicities, and the Schwabe cycle. In particular, the midrange periodicities ranging from 37.9 days to 297.3 days are related to the magnetic Rossby-type waves; (2) The 1.3-year and 1.7-year fluctuations in solar activity indicators are surface manifestations (from photosphere to corona) of magnetic flux changes generated deep inside the Sun; (3) At the timescale of the Schwabe cycle, the complicated phase relationships in the three intervals (1947–1958, 1959–1988, and 1989–2016) agree with the produced periodicities of the magnetic Rossby-type waves. The findings indicate that the magnetic Rossby-type waves are the possible physical mechanism behind the midrange periodicities of solar activity indicators. Moreover, the significant change in the relationship between photospheric and coronal activity took place after the maximum of solar cycle 22 could be interpreted by the magnetic Rossby-type waves.     

Decoupling Solar Variability and Instrument Trends Using the Multiple Same-Irradiance-Level (MuSIL) Analysis Technique

The solar spectral irradiance (SSI) dataset is a key record for studying and understanding the energetics and radiation balance in Earth’s environment. Understanding the long-term variations of the SSI over timescales of the 11-year solar activity cycle and longer is critical for many Sun–Earth research topics. Satellite measurements of the SSI have been made since the 1970s, most of them in the ultraviolet, but recently also in the visible and near-infrared. A limiting factor for the accuracy of previous solar variability results is the uncertainties for the instrument degradation corrections, which need fairly large corrections relative to the amount of solar cycle variability at some wavelengths. The primary objective of this investigation has been to separate out solar cycle variability and any residual uncorrected instrumental trends in the SSI measurements from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) mission and the Thermosphere, Mesosphere, Ionosphere, Energetic, and Dynamics (TIMED) mission. A new technique called the Multiple Same-Irradiance-Level (MuSIL) analysis has been developed, which examines an SSI time series at different levels of solar activity to provide long-term trends in an SSI record, and the most common result is a downward trend that most likely stems from uncorrected instrument degradation. This technique has been applied to each wavelength in the SSI records from SORCE (2003?–?present) and TIMED (2002?–?present) to provide new solar cycle variability results between 27 nm and 1600 nm with a resolution of about 1 nm at most wavelengths. This technique, which was validated with the highly accurate total solar irradiance (TSI) record, has an estimated relative uncertainty of about 5% of the measured solar cycle variability. The MuSIL results are further validated with the comparison of the new solar cycle variability results from different solar cycles.     

Nitrate in Polar Ice: A New Tracer of Solar Variability

Knowledge of the long-term variability of solar activity is of both astrophysical and geoscientific interest. Reconstructions of solar activity over multiple millennia are traditionally based on cosmogenic isotopes ¹⁴C or ¹⁰Be measured in natural terrestrial archives, but the two isotopes exhibit significant differences on millennial time scales, so that our knowledge of solar activity at this time scale remains somewhat uncertain. Here we present a new potential proxy of solar activity on the centennial-millennial time scale, based on a chemical tracer, viz. nitrate content in an ice core drilled at Talos Dome (Antarctica). We argue that this location is optimal for preserving the solar signal in the nitrate content during the Holocene. By using the firn core from the same location we show that the 11-year and Gleissberg cycles are present with the variability of 10??C?25?% in nitrate content in the pre-industrial epoch. This is consistent with the results of independent efforts of modeling HNO₃ and NO _y in Antarctic near surface air. However, meteorological noise on the interannual scale makes it impossible to resolve individual solar cycles. Based on different processes of formation and transport compared to cosmogenic isotopes, it provides new, independent insight into long-term solar activity and helps resolve the uncertainties related to cosmogenic isotopes as diagnostics of solar activity.     

Galactic Cosmic Ray Modulation and the Last Solar Minimum

In this work the galactic cosmic ray modulation in relation to solar activity indices and heliospheric parameters during the years 1996??C?2010 covering solar cycle 23 and the solar minimum between cycles 23 and 24 is studied. A new perspective of this contribution is that cosmic ray data with a rigidity of 10 GV at the top of the atmosphere obtained from many ground-based neutron monitors were used. The proposed empirical relation gave much better results than those in previous works concerning the hysteresis effect. The proposed models obtained from a combination of solar activity indices and heliospheric parameters give a standard deviation <?10?% for all the cases. The correlation coefficient between the cosmic ray variations of 10?GV and the sunspot number reached a value of r=?0.89 with a time lag of 13.6±0.4 months. The best reproduction of the cosmic ray intensity is obtained by taking into account solar and interplanetary indices such as sunspot number, interplanetary magnetic field, CME index, and heliospheric current sheet tilt. The standard deviation between the observed and calculated values is about 7.15?% for all of solar cycle 23; it also works very well during the different phases of the cycle. Moreover, the use of the cosmic ray intensity of 10?GV during the long minimum period between cycles 23 and 24 is of special interest and is discussed in terms of cosmic ray intensity modulation.     

An Analysis of Solar Global Activity

This article proposes a unified observational model of solar activity based on sunspot number and the solar global activity in the rotation of the structures, both per 11-year cycle. The rotation rates show a variation of a half-century period and the same period is also associated to the sunspot amplitude variation. The global solar rotation interweaves with the observed global organisation of solar activity. An important role for this assembly is played by the Grand Cycle formed by the merging of five sunspot cycles: a forgotten discovery by R. Wolf. On the basis of these elements, the nature of the Dalton Minimum, the Maunder Minimum, the Gleissberg Cycle, and the Grand Minima are presented.     

The Sun’s Strange Behavior: Maunder Minimum or Gleissberg Cycle?

During the last few years the Sun and solar wind have shown a behavior that was so unexpected that the phenomena was described as “the strange solar minimum”. It has been speculated that the 23/24 solar cycle minimum may have indicated the onset of a Maunder-Minimum-type Grand Minimum. Here we review what is known from 1500 years of proxy data about Maunder-type Grand Minima and the minima of the cyclic Centennial Gleissberg variations. We generate criteria that distinguish between the two types of event. Applying these criteria to the observed solar terrestrial data we conclude that the unexpected behavior began well before the solar cycle 23/24 minimum. The data do not support the Maunder Minimum conjecture. However, the behavior can be understood as a minimum of the Centennial Gleissberg Cycle that previously minimized in the beginning of the 20th century. We conclude that the Centennial Gleissberg Cycle is a persistent variation that has been present 80% of the time during the last 1500 years and should be explained by solar dynamo theory.     

Solar activity during first six years of solar cycle 24 and 23: a comparative study

Attempt to look into the nature of solar activity and variability have increased importance in recent days because of their terrestrial relationships. In the present work we have attempted to compare the solar activity events during first six years (2008–2013) of the ongoing solar cycle 24 with first six years (1996–2001) of solar cycle 23. To that end, we have considered sunspot numbers, F10.7 cm solar flux, halo CMEs and geomagnetic storms as comparison parameters. Sunspot number during the year 2008–2013 varied from 0 to 96.7 while during the year 1996 to 2001 it was observed from 0.9 to 170.1. Solar radio flux (F10.7 cm index) varied from 65 to 190 during the years 2008–2013 while it was observed from 65 to 283 during the years 1996–2001. 197 cases of halo CMEs (width=360^°) in solar cycle 23 (1996–2001) and 177 cases of halo CMEs (width=360^°) in solar cycle 24 (2008–2013) are investigated. 287 and 104 geomagnetic storm cases (Dst varies between ?50 and ?350 nT) are analysed during the half period of solar cycle 23 and 24 respectively. Comparative results indicate that solar cycle 23 was more pronounced in comparison of solar cycle 24.